8/26 - stocks

e e that can you guys hear me now yes hello all right great we're here what's up everyone Hi Samir utav toot fried pickle corpse flat dunster shark stero uh get good um bound music uh Anna of course uh hope you're all good um I'm Martin scowley we're going to look at some stocks um stock market is open all you roaring kitties out there whatever happened to that dude I think he's such a POS he's like a third rate analyst all right let's see what stock should we look at someone mentioned tars I don't know that one really well I know it's a biotech it's called Tarsus Tarsus Pharmaceuticals all right let's do Tarsus oops got a case on the Mondays all right $26 stock let's I guess I should update the this thing oh looks like a eye disease company eye disease can be profitable very profitable in fact this rather important organ 1 billion market cap every biotech entrepreneur's goal at least to start tons of cash I would argue too much but there's a school of thought in biotech you can never have too much cash I disagree but if management doesn't have to worry about cash it's kind of a I guess a good thing I get a little loan here oh I am searching for somebody who has a University login to academic articles um so if you are at a top university or maybe not even a top university but you have broad access to Scientific journals and you're willing to talk to me about that um would love to do that um send me a message uh you can email me uh Martin marcy.com or Martin dl. software looks like these guys are selling a product which is more than most people could say yeah you can have too much cash if you raise oh my cat is really upset shut up kitty um you could definitely have too much cash um that's a thing give me a second I'm going to go get this cat oh shout up kitty yeah yeah yeah shut up all right the cat is free people want to see you kitty do the people want to see you come on okay people see you for two minutes all right yes yes yes we love you too we're here to make money Kitty you have nothing to do with this oh this is what you want some treats I haven't heard the news of the is there a terrorist attack that's terrible look at this stupid cat yeah Dows are neither decentralized nor autonomous it's a shame so much for Dows yeah this kid he knows how to Roar too she just wants some treats and then she's going to she's going to bounce that's what she does yes see she's done okay that was good thank you very much sir that's it that's it now you're going to go off in your own little adventures okay go on your adventures we'll go on our capitalist Adventures a little dumb Dum you heard munching right she's munching her Crunchies that's what we call her treats my little crunchies you love your Crunchies [Music] huh I don't know why I tolerate this little dumbbell all right we got this company tar sis it looks like they have a product and it looks like it's actually selling decently I have a lot of opinions on crypto I know crypto fairly well uh I've done Airbnb I've done poener pin Doo Duo getting smoked I run a software company we are growing rapidly thank you to all our customers for text to speech and financial information we are hiring as well anyway let's get to work 24 million in q1 that's actually a ton for a new product and relative to their market cap right that's a 100 million run rate when you sell 25 million of products in a quarter that's 100 million of Revenue cost of sales very little that's what we like R&D sgna that's one one of the things biotechs don't understand is that when you launch a product you really do have to spend a lot of money that's one thing a lot of Biotech companies don't realize the way Pharma does it is insane I mean you could spend a billion dollars in promotion that first year pretty pretty important I should do Micron someday okay so what's the drug what do they have okay it's called xdy and it's liler I've never heard of this drug in my life that is rare liner ectoparasitic wait there's a there's a drug with a similar ending wonder if any of you guys know trivia oh man it's on the tip of my tongue it's another parasit anti parasitic can't remember it it's an ISO zoline isox isox azoline so it's got a asog group oxazoline isic ISO it's not ISO it's is oxa Ailene is oxazoline um icin does not have the same ending so this is an animal Animal product but they got a uh got it for humans how smart is that right like that's just like a slam dunk right take an animal jog wear animals too and just uh look at the triple floral group the triple chloro substitutions they're not really a group they're just substitutions that's the oxazoline right yep you'll see it oxazoline and Ailene is the nitrogen oxazoline it's a five membered ring this G's got to get clipped off but the florans keep the halflife long so this is for demo deex blefaritis oh eyelash mites what the f oh hell no you got this in your eyes I know you do Moxy this lives in your eyes God damn this guy is living he's all in your eyes just chilling you getting too close to kiss a chick and then this thing comes [Laughter] [Music] out 65 species goddamn mine is a beast if I got them mine's the best two live on humans okay two species live on humans Tiny Mites that live in the hair follicles of mammals so isn't this the dandruff guy too oh my God they're really big too that's so gross e man who suggested this damn stock to me man oh it's disgusting they're actually they're actually [ __ ] big well I mean what is the human human humans can see like one millim right so this is a third or fourth of a millimeter 164 of an inch oh yeah you can see3 damn how do you make the part they're just undee yeah they might be little dots basically but I think because I thought this was the dandruff but I guess it's the eyelash damn man I do not like this whoever s me this stock go f [Music] yourself well you know on the on the flip side you may have put me onto something that I can you know maybe I could get treated I know I got this thing I know I got tons of this this guy and they're sitting there eating sitting there eating all all your food your eye food they're like yummy um I didn't another the pirate Idol um I'm glad you guys saw if you didn't see pirate wires I was a co-host of pirate wires it was awesome pirate wires is um Peter Teal's uh kind of media um effort let's see and uh Mike salana does it but he and I co-hosted and was awesome so you can uh go check that out uh pirates.com and you could uh subscribe to their YouTube channel watch the podcast episode really big fan of everything Peter teal does um and Mike salana is a real brilliant guy he been with Peter a long time and uh we need different kind of news and I think there's a lot of um new oh here it is actually um yeah I know ion Q we need a different kind of uh content and media for kind of Our Generation and our perspective this like Pro technology perspective um there's this awesome let me see here going to post my thing on Twitter just so people know um let's see levels iio I think was the guy and he did this I think he did this where did he do it maybe he retweeted it or something I saw it on my it's like eak motivation I could have sworn I maybe I tweeted it let me see yeah it should be here um here it is cool all right let's watch this for two minutes just cuz I thought it was really [Music] awesome I am take me back I want to see SM you try [Music] call [Music] you one more time I try be so we can be the Earth [Music] [Music] [Applause] [Music] [Applause] [Music] [Applause] you [Music] no [Music] no no [Music] shout out to levels IO and VAR Epsilon for making the video you guys know what Epsilon is right it's a really small variable right it's like an error uh Paul erish maybe one of the most famous mathematicians ever referred to children as little epsilons come here my little Epsilon one day it will be big real variable it was Hungarian so I don't know that's my best my best Hungarian okay let me see here these guys are okay they have a deal with Leon am I still not still muted okay yeah we'll do an Nvidia earnings preview that'll be interesting Super Bowl for nerds right so ex Demi is a drug for I boogers maybe not I boogers but worse at least mucus isn't alive right mucus is just prot tenacious secretion right so mucus is mostly aquous as well so it's not alive but the mites living there is so disgusting if you're just joining us we're looking at imites my cat is chasing a woman's hair tie isn't that right Kitty she's having a ball okay so pretty straightforward the question is how big can this drug get blepharitis is what is blefaritis I know it's a eye inflammation is it um it's eyelid I think it's eyelid let's see leitis oo spelled it wrong yeah eyelid inflammation I have that I have that I dandruff yikes isn't that sexy next date I go on I'm going say yeah I have a condition oh my God what is it iandra [Music] [ __ ] I dandruff that's right it's I dandruff it's crusty can you help me clean my [Laughter] eyelids it's so crusty um when a woman finally talks to you call in calling sick I my eye D all right so I mean it's kind of like again a smart strategy like of course we're here to look at stocks but if you think about becoming an entrepreneur let's say you wanted to be rich I don't know if any of you want that God forbid right um you know look what this company did they took an old animal drug for dog mites dog mites and they said well it kills this demo deck species right so if it kills this demo deck species then it'll kill it for humans too right and if it's safe we can make it a drug and they did and now a billion dollar company kind of amazing huh so sometimes I joke that if you put me in on a PB Med and give me 12 hours I'll give you a billion dollar company the problem is you have to actually execute the billion dollar company and management doesn't grow on trees Management's difficult um so it's just something to think about you can start to get your build your company that way all right so let's go to their website that's usually a good place to go Tarsus Pharmaceuticals they're selling really well I mean for it's one of their first quarters right um let's see how much they sold in q1 q1 okay okay we just looked at q1 I guess so let's look at Q2 wow what the [ __ ] that's a lot of Revenue can you imagine you took an animal drug put it in humans and now you're selling 40 million and a quarter that's 160 million run rate $160 million it's a hell of a lot of Revenue now their problem is they have an Opthalmic solution that is an old drug so that molecule has no patent protection what's going on with Nvidia maybe people know the numbers oh it's not getting wrecked this guy it's getting wrecked it's done $2 calm down calm your ass down video's getting wrecked we'll put that right here just for you it's down 1.7% you're long that that's how I could tell you're long where my bears at the bear is extinct species pin duo duo yeah where's the crash uh for sorry just addressing some bugs here for our new software um yeah I want to look at Pino do too um bears are waking up could be a lot of people think it's going to be a tough next few years but I don't know a new potential Blockbuster category in eye care what the f man imites ey dandri really oh and these guys have a whole ass pipeline they're they got mayian gland disease next so some percentage of mayian gland disease mayum mayian mayian gland disease uh mayian gland disease that's the that's the my my bonium is the like corner of your eye where there's like a little duck I think I'm pretty sure um yeah soft Landing is possible it's always possible um so that's a label extension for this drug right and then yeah shout out to paler Joe Lonsdale Alex karp all them guys big Peter the big homie all right so they have a drug for rosacea tpo4 tp5 for Lyme disease Lyme disease prevention and papulo pular rosacea AKA just rosacea rosacea is the redness extreme redness how in the world that these guys do this this should be studied by all business students oh so disgusting Demodex might infestation you've been infested oh it's a g I thought somebody was kidding it actually is a gab inhibitor no way it really is a might specific Gaba inhibitor um I thought you were kidding okay so this is also Lo tiller for rosacea so they're saying this stupid might is is um causing rosacea I dandruff you name it uh I don't know qxo but I'll I'll look at it at some point thank you for asking um and then this is an oral version so okay so they pipeline is all the same drugs it's all the same drug it's just L Tiller lower and more low tiller fine question is when was L Tiller first characterized for that I'll go to PubMed I want to put all these things on godell by the way Pub should be on Goodell Pacer should be on Goodell all the stuff's going to be on Goodell tiller okay little Cher sort by date what the is it a new drug it can't be let's go to the orange book okay it's been approved for about a year it's not like it's brand brand new okay we have some patents here let's look at this one 2030 XPR this must be the molecule yeah this is the molecule patent Elon oh this is Elon elanco drug this was Lily's Animal Health business composition the matter from Milano expires 2030 this is where I should get good at uh speaking getting good at patent term restoration because okay and this was originally a nardis drug okay so let's look at this patent a little more closely so 2009 2009 that's the application date so usually it's 20 years from that all right so that's 12 17 20 29 if you take the application date as the expir you add 20 years so that's from application date issue date is 17 years so if you take that issue date 226 2013 issue date you add 17 years bet you guys didn't know that it's very important so that's 2030 um so that sounds about right but patent term restoration is for the amount of time a drug stay in clinical trials which is probably not very long here oh and they did adjust the expiration so I'll take the 2030 at face value that's insane um it's probably decent long honestly there are ezema treatments that don't kill you dxent DX's pretty good I got my first shot of dupixent getting my second shot of dup pixon has proven a little difficult but the pesky insurance company I might just pay cash that's the flex I bought this drug Straight Cash all right so you got a 2030 Pat XPR I'm sure I'm sure they have all kinds of fancy [ __ ] patn here but 2030 is basically it I mean they should get credit for their invention it's just hard to give you give them credit for that you know all those other patents a generic would have to fight and go to court and you make it hard for them but ultimately it's not a surprise that if you take an antiparasitic for a dog and put it in a human that it works that's not is that an invention I would say no a judge might say yes a company would say well why didn't they do it then why did we have to invent it and that's not really a good argument to be honest but they could get more than 2030 there's no thinking boosting drug sorry good sleep is about it get a good night of rest drink some water exercise I don't do any of those damn things wait they had Deb they had 30 in Deb so now oh okay wait wait I looked at the balance sheet I didn't see a massive amount of debt was I smoking look at the replay I would expect chat would have told me if I missed something here Term Loan 29 million I got the term loan not missing anything else so what debt did they have had some debt facility or something they did an offering too H the might party campaign oh my God these guys look at this is there a m party on your eyelids look at these mites they're chilling balloons having fun all up in my eyelids this one's you know this one's got a Sly grin on his face this one's [ __ ] derp might nfts I got to see this [ __ ] okay no I want to see the video might party oh they don't even have a video they have a cartoon man oh God that's great no way party's ending no crusties it's [ __ ] great love Pharma okay let's see oh okay so they're drawing down 75 and paying off 30 that makes way more sense got it got it got it pharmac con's great I used to work with them a little they're really great lenders all right so these guys are selling like crazy I think they're going to keep selling right like whatever is working for them wonder what the price of the strug is let's see xmv price do you have to keep taking it 2,000 bucks for my ey might God damn limited distribution of course 1850 eyewire news each prescription lasts a year huh I wonder I wonder if they so you don't refill 177,000 bottles okay let's take a look we can back in to price so they're actually getting 70050 bucks for a bottle so it doesn't look like they're actually getting the whole 1850 list price if they shipped 177,000 bottles well that might have been just been for one quarter or something they're gross to net it's 50% which is pretty big gross to net honestly for all right anybody want to take a guess on how big this drug could get I mean it's for imites come on bro how big could it get 300 300 mil that sound about right okay so their gross to net went up a little bit which I would expect they said exceptional gross to net discount that's that exceptional now they're getting 1,00 all right so 30,000 bottles yeah this thing could keep going oh man [ __ ] I mites I want this damn drug now my eyes are red my eyes itch yeah they don't have the the the the company that has the dog drug is elanco um so yeah once you're done with your eyes come here kitty bear bought elano right or is lano's still public no elano is still public 7 billion market cap so elano could have made this drug and gotten a billion market cap for themselves dumb asses oh I think they have a royalty so Sava I think Sava does not work it's not ready to explode it's ready to go down a lot um maybe we should look at casava right yeah let's look at cassava some time that'd be funny oh they eat dead cells maybe then you need uh you need them if they're eating dead cells why are they so bad maybe I should get IES and drop them into my eyes what do you think ladies get the imites get a little vial of them just let them eat the dead cells away there are uh there are beauty treatments like that right Marty's ey might oh my God then Doo Duo um it would be funny if you I mean this company would love me for for that they'd be like yeah take his imites and then take xmy how many Eye Care Professionals are there 11,000 of start 60% okay yeah I think it could do three or 400 mil God I might stock and I might stock I got a tweet about this for sorry guys making content here yeah I'm I'm going to increase the sales of this company by like 10% I might awareness day it's a national holiday okay so I just want to look at one more prior quarter and then we're going to we're going to forecast this son of a gun we go and see if it's a buy I think it's going to be a buy I swear to God the the people in the godell chat have the best damn stock picks it's like an enriched group of people that know what the hell they're doing good for them man I don't know I don't come up with these stock picks these guys ask me to look at the stock and look at my favorite stock and like half these people their favorite stock is actually really good one of them was in Zoom one of them was in uh iance they was like this is a great buy it's funny cuz like usually it's when someone else is suffering in a stock they're like I've been in this piece of crap forever and I'm like oh I love this thing and then it goes up and they're like what the [ __ ] sorry but I've been in some dogs myself my antia has taken forever I don't think that stock will ever go up at this rate they've only cured two liver diseases who cares imites imites is where it's at screw your deadly diseases give us the imite drug we need to kill those things um let's see I don't want everyone to have godell link because you get to keep you lock in your price forever and I want to raise raise the price so I'd rather people not sign up kind of cuz they're a lot of people are signing up and I want it to be like 500 bucks a month or something it should be Bloomberg's two 2500 a month [ __ ] Bloomberg man okay so n i mean I can't I can't do a full platform for $40 a month that's for sure but it's just only people who know about it is this channel so that's okay all right so let's see I could see them selling 300,000 of these a year Jesus that's maybe too much okay 300,000 no I'm not in on Daddy coin oh my gosh this thing is going to be good I can't believe it's a new molecule too I was thought for sure it's some old ass antiparasitic flea medication but it's actually a relative ly new drug 93% gross margins oh my God I'm just jealous at this point I'm just [ __ ] jealous I'm a hater you could have done this you could have you could have turned you could have made a billion dollar drug company out of a [ __ ] flea drug man mad as hell it's clever it's clever I have to admit and they're going to expand it to all kinds of other indications God damn I wonder if they can get International sales of this thing Europeans don't they're barbarians out there they're not they're not treating this they're like the Europeans are like H yes the I might the delicious you must leave them in they just like pay to remove them never Europe's going third world s blue the imites need their own rights we need we need socialism for the IM I hate Europe man my late father was like we escaped communism only to see these idiots tried here and on my father's name I will not let communism come to America oops wrong thing here yeah this is an insane situation but you know the tragedy and I think it's a personal tragedy that all drugs face is that they inevitably go generic right we have such a wellestablished way of you know making pharmaceutical companies lose all their revenue look how creative this company is like they should be allowed to have a monopoly forever that's just my opinion you know hate me if you want but they like literally only have six more years to seven eight years total in this case because it's it's an it's not a brand brand new drug but it's it's a little bit older I don't know it could probably get to like 500 million or something it's kind of sick infinite marginal demand for healthcare that's my line I guess they can kind of start lowering their expense all right so the question is what happens after 2030 and the answer is probably just falls off a cliff and goes generic eye drugs look at the biggest eye drugs of all time like Restasis and others they're not always easy to make generics of um so we should look at the patent EST State a little more carefully yeah I definitely think this is a buy um wow oh you also get 300 on a balance sheet that's not worth nothing so this is like a relatively conservative model because I'm not including anything for the pipeline and I get 45 bucks and I actually think they can beat these sales numbers which sounds [ __ ] crazy because it's a drug for imites but they also are going to try to get this molecule to do other things which look sometimes that works sometimes it doesn't but clearly management seems to be really bright maybe I'll call them Shane Shane Gillis he's funny he's not as funny as me though um he's funny Shan Gillis is funny man Tarsus Pharmaceuticals I mean it's not going to 10x that you got to get comfortable with unless you think what the hell are they doing again they're doing they're trying to get xdy approved for or they're doing a gel formulation oh yeah yeah yeah they're doing a gel formulation for the mayian gland so guess those mites go in there too if that gets approval well I don't know some people might use this thing but it doesn't last that's why you not the gel the gel kind of this is just a solution the gel so you probably have to like pull the eyelid and then pour it in there and kill the mites with the the gel kind of like stays in there rosacea is probably a wild card but if rosacea works that's another couple hundred mil do you think rosacea is called by caused by Demodex let's take a look [ __ ] this [ __ ] demo de is a problem but my guess is I wonder if the company is paying for all this this Romanian researchers bro this is crazy demid demidos demodicosis bro oh they're doing iveron for this which makes kind of makes sense right actually you can make a ton of money just take Ivor mechon and get the turn it into a cream probably cost you like 5 million bucks 10 million bucks to do the trial apparently you could sell pretty well I wonder if acne it's probably acne too dude these guys have like yeah this is a [ __ ] gem God damn I'm not even going to say might be just it is I want a hedge it might be a triple it could be a double man it is this is my new favorite stock Tarsus I mean I would just like just be mindful that it may not um how should I put it like the 2030 xer is really the big problem because let's say even if you had um massive growth okay you could pass yeah I mean a triple with the massive growth with rosacea can they get a settlement for like 2032 I didn't see the Lexicon press release actually are they just doing the pain drug now no they're just doing the promotion I thought I saw this yeah I saw this yeah I saw this they're still investing in the clinical trials I think they're just not doing Discovery anymore which is probably a good idea oh man I hope Tarsus isn't going up because I because of me but regardless let's look at the okay let's look at the other patents just in case I doubt there're anything special but usually in the drug business you just kind of throw whatever patents you you can at the wall and see hope that you know hope that they might have some Merit I mean no offense to the inventors you know like you work hard to create a medicine but the funny thing is this company seems like they're actually pretty smart so like could they get off this molecule and on to another molecule maybe something stronger who knows all right methods for treating ocular demo decks this is a formulation or in a method patent this is Tarsus that's the CEO of the company never like to see the CEO on the patent a method for treating Demodex comprising of a top topically administered topically administering uh to the ocular surface oh there's the there's the drug I was thinking of fluralaner so laler is a different flu faler is really old um really old antiparasitic I thought about that drug as well so this is not an interesting pattern like this is this is too obvious any judge I think would say well you can never tell a judges but I think any judge would say big deal you took an animal drug and put it in humans humans are just a bigger animal is this an invention this patent looks to be pretty much the same is it an extension with more claims twice daily for four weeks these [ __ ] grow back this also doesn't impress me you know you try to settle with these patents you try to out Fox the generic but the only way out for this one is a brand new drug two more patents all of these will get busted and they give eight more years which is a lot but I was going to say it's not that much but it is a lot okay so none of these patents look like they add very much they like continuation claims or whatever so 2030 is basically the drop dead date so the question is how fast can you um how how much revenue can you get by by 2030 that's basically it you know it seems like a really smart management team like they could I mean rosace is going to cost money to do but man there's upside in rosacea like arguably they they can just do just I could be a billion which is [ __ ] nuts I can't believe I'm saying that but it's true and then I wonder how much of the company management owns that usually suggests they'll work pretty hard not always not always shockingly oh this guy owns two guys own a bunch of guys I know own smart people actually very very smart people on uh 10% of the company each that's good this person sold most of their stake interesting interesting interesting yeah Yahoo finance kind of doesn't really work no I don't think they're the ones who recommended it on a godell but you never know uh these are just old hedge fund friends of mine um yeah the smart money in in hedge funds although that's become a bit of a misnomer lately that's cool man um really interesting stock you know I I don't think that just because like your friend or a smart fund owns a stock means that you should buy the stock there's a lot of reasons why and in my early days of my career I used to be really interested in that and these days I'm basically completely uninterested in who the other shareholders are it's basically irrelevant what matters is do you like the stock not somebody else um the reasons are one every successful fund goes through a period where it's less successful partially that's related to hubris partially size partially bad luck you know partially market conditions so just because a fund is return say 30% a year which is amazing um legendary performance doesn't mean it's going to keep returning 30% a year and it certainly doesn't mean that that specific stock and that specific portfolio is going to go up so you really can't just take oh so and so owns the stock well so and so has had a hot hand but hot hands go cold and you know [ __ ] happens you know you think your hot hand will lasts forever and sometimes it doesn't so there's that um the other reason is you have probability distribution of returns no fund has Only Winners that just doesn't exist um even the very best funds you know Warren Buffett is like 80% winners but he makes like four trades a year so you could take that approach maybe but most of these funds don't make four trades a year they make maybe 400 trades a year or 4,000 and you know they're going to be right 60% of the time but you're not going to get a big Edge by just randomly picking a stock out of their portfolio you got to like it you got to be convinced um I don't even think you should put any Credence at all into it in fact if you've got a bunch of hedge funds in the stock that kind of means that they're the Supply right and you're their exit liquidity so I'd almost rather have it that they're no hedge funds in the stock and that the buyers will be institutions that'll never sell but again better to just ignore it all and focus your mind on okay is this the stock I like can I live with this um that's kind of that okay let's see maybe I have time for one more one more one more we'll definitely be doing an Nvidia preview that'll be fun oh this is cool I got to check this out um Square btmd uh I like this guy signed up for godell it cost money to sign up for godell and he decided his username forever more should be Hugh Janice which you could argue you could pronounce differently like hugus hug Janus it's Janice right it's a Greek god or is it a Roman god I think it's a Roman um pend Doo humite I don't know I have to go to work too fiser is such a dog man ATS humite is a short somebody says okay now now we got to look he's throwing the gauntlet down hold on let me get this all set up in my system here well by the way all my models are available in GitHub so if you jump on my GitHub you can git clone the directory it's not that hard to install git git's really important um you don't become a programmer because you're using git it's really not that hard of a tool to use so git is a Version Control system um you know git is a really good way and it could be better but if you're an institution and you really want fine control over your models consider git everybody can learn to use Git You Don't Have To Be A programmer at all it's mostly used for programmers but I think we should be using it in finance cuz if your analyst change a file you want to know when and where did that change take place there's also all kinds of goodies in my G uh in my repo I should say not just models but all kinds of stuff it'll get you girls trust me um JK JK JK you're a nerd um let's see Huma yeah let's look at Huma pin Doo Duo rest in peace all right let me change the rocket rocket is a big pipeline I think one of their drugs is probably not going to commercialize well but the rest of them I thought were a little bigger although I can't say I looked out in a while so I should probably not say anything but that would be responsible we know do responsible around here I love Japanese stocks humite Inc humite warrants all right 119 million shares outstanding 800 million market cap whoa that shouldn't be there okay not much cash this kind of amount of cash I'm comfortable with most of these biotech CEOs are scared I don't need no cash oh man they got a messy balance sheet actually Revenue interest liability that's kind of like debt there's a lot of these like I sold a piece of my revenue is that a loan H kind of yeah it's it's a loan it's it's an NASA back loan basically so this is one of the things I like to look at in biotech this company spent $626 million to become an $800 million company it's a lot of work for not a lot of return okay no Revenue that's all I needed to know so how they sell a product since an Inception in 2004 oh man could you imagine starting the company in 2004 spending 600 million on it it's worth 800 mil right so they did a deal with a royalty player such that at least that royalty player thinks they're going to have a drug right hum site all right yo come on is this a joke is these guys serious I will update your website for you all right I I will literally you know just I will absolutely do this for you no problem what are you guys using here oh you're you oh my God websit pro.com on WordPress come on guys come on guys you got a stale site you're publicly traded near billion dollar company oh wait hold on hold on this this has to be an old site this is this got to be an old site man I think I see what happened yeah yeah yeah okay that site is cached in Google PH okay so this is called a t for vascular trauma okay oh they got a nice little animation there I'm very stale on web development actually so I wouldn't I wouldn't be the right person a cellular tissue engineered vessel this is very suspicious we were surprised to be notified that the FDA rejected our shitty application I'm kidding I don't know if the drugs good or not vascular trauma PFA date's coming on PFA date the [ __ ] PFA datea date who said something about a PFA date PFA is a prescription drug user fee act for those of you who don't know and PFA 3 as well as PFA one and two but PFA 3 guarantees action by a certain date most of the time not in this case uh you pulling another rug pull Martin what are you talking about I've never done a rug pull and I will sue anybody who says otherwise don't get SU let's see here GameStop it's been a mess I don't have time for crypto to be honest I'll get back into it at some point but it's not been a positive experience cryp crypto is one of those things where like nobody can manage to keep greed at Bay nobody thinks for the long run it's all just like crypto makes like Wall Street look honest I used to be upset when somebody bought my stock and sold it like nine months later in crypto man you can't keep people in your in your token for [ __ ] three hours what's up kitty oh you need more water a my cat's so dumb she after she eats or drinks she scratches the ground which is apparently pretty common but she still does it it's nothing to bury Kitty there's no Predators going to come eat you you don't have to bury your scent it's just Instinct it's Instinct locked into her little brain OIC I was looking at lily last night demo deck is the name of the might sounds like somebody's confused all right let's try to understand this company so when you file a bla usually of clinical module and the clinical module supports supports your bla they don't talk about that anywhere here so let's find a press releas where they do biotech stocks are not boring I mean I like software stocks too okay okay here's the hum sites bla included postive results from VO5 what something about Ukraine injuries I think this is uh going to be it for me after this I'm curious about this this looks like it could be a short I love shorting software is interesting for sure software I mean they're very different things biotech kind of like the the industry of biofarma kind of sucks because the patent XPR it's just sort of this fundamental limitation to the industry something you have to get over or just come to terms with you can't get this infinite growth um like you can in software so it's just a fundamentally different business sometimes you it's hard to even call it a business in a way in that it's like this got this duration and in a lot of ways it's kind of like um the insurance business I once was talking to uh one of the biggest hedge fund Executives about this that in an insurance business you write a premium and you either pay it out or or you don't and when you add these premiums together you get a premium book and there's loan books similar in finance and Banks and in Pharma you're sort of building this Pharma book if you will and they're basically this these discret cash flows that will eventually roll off just like a premium book so it's there's sort of one way to look at as Financial assets like that software is very different almost like a consumer product or something like that you can really build up your value over time in Pharma it's kind of like the bigger you grow the harder you'll fall when you go generic so and we've seen a lot of companies that have had those issues over the years okay so this could be a good example of a old school schelly short this is where we pick apart you know those mites that pick apart the eyelids I'm like one of those mites right now I'm I'm sharpening my little my six legs about to dig in this an eyelids historic synthetic graft benchmarks H hisor single arm study conducted in US and Israel 69 patients you're could to do a bigger trial than 69 patients BR yeah I'm looking for that FDA approval well how many patients did you study submit your dossier uh here you go usually you come with truck loads full of data how many patients did you study uh 69 in like one month no no just 69 I do I buy puts I short I sell calls I do it all all right so gunshots workplace injuries car accidents and other trauma so saffin his vein I guess they can take your saffin this vein and use it I'm not a trauma suron but no it would not be the first approval with a small sample that's right but off the shelf so you're it's for vascular reconstruction C historic benchmarks that is not what you want to hear in a FDA pivotal study yeah this is this could be a [ __ ] short this could be good money and the FDA is late on a response yo on the FDA I'm telling go do a 400 patient study go get me a real control group GTFO stop the [ __ ] ain't playing this come on bro 30ty day secondary patency is 92% 90.2% for the extremity patients compared to historically reported for synthetic grafts usually when people do the historically supported there's like a there a little bit of cheating going on and you can't really do a non-inferiority study I mean I understand the point that you maybe can't do head-to-head these are for people who simply don't have an alternative but there is something called like best alternative care where it's like okay if they can't you could enroll in that study you could do like a little bit more intelligent study design where like half of people get best supportive care and half of people you give them this technology okay where's like there's no information about the product anywhere this is sick sick sickening okay actually there's a ton of uh maybe it's because there some of these are paid oh I see it okay have they ever published something here's something so it is a 6 mm 40 cm vessel created from Human vascular smooth muscle cells Seated on a polyglycolic acid scaffold pulsed in a bioreactor for 8 weeks and the scaffold dissolves then it's decellularized 29 patients underwent limb Salvage operation using HIV as a bypass conduit I mean it kind of looks like a neat product but getting approval typic typically requires a bit of a better study not always I'd have to learn this space but these are the kinds of things I tend to avoid it doesn't mean that it can't succeed these are the T kinds of things I tend to Short um this is a really tricky one I'd have to do a pretty deep dive I mean this this I mean I think they could get reimbursement if if it works um and it looks like I mean from that trial it doesn't look like it's I mean for people of no Al alternative amputation or bust I do think there's they have no other vein to use to graft usually they'll take a vein from somewhere else and they'll do Lim Rec vascular reconstruction with that uh vein and this is done in cabbage and other places right so so there are synthetic grafts see that's the thing I have to learn the space I've heard of this company for a decade right but like I never really got to look into it I looked a long time ago at a company called Northfield that made synthetic blood and I shorted that and it was one of my biggest career wins um it went from like 20 to 4 and it was like a similar Dynamic where it was L synthetic graft or synthetic vein but it was actually synthetic blood and it didn't work out um similar stuff like no control lastline patients but it wasn't clear that they were better off with the drug or not um so yeah really tricky I'm like Rainman I could just stare at the time in sales Buy sell Buy sell Buy sell byy bye byy sell and do a Doo s that I'm just just kidding I do I'm curious what the heck is going on with PDD all right bo boys and girls thank you so much for listening and watching I'll try to work on humite a little bit more detail um we'll see you um at the very least we'll do an Nvidia earnings preview but thank you so much for watching click subscribe so you know next time I go live all right see