[Music] [Music] all all right we get our groove on here to start the actual work week Labor Day in the rear view we did two mocks had three shows come out yesterday because uh we're a little bit nutty here on old man squad fantasy basketball uh I'm just you know maximizing content between now and at least the start of the season is by Design pull back the curtain a tiny bit um and I I changed spots many of you guys know this for a long time I was at hoopball sports ethos and a couple months ago I founded this network and so right now this is my opportunity to try to let everybody know where I'm at so um sorry for inundating you with things but also you're welcome if you like them uh and if you do please like raid And subscribe that helps to spread the word I'm Dan bpis at Dan besus on social Oldman Squad is the network follow that one in addition to me uh old man squad the Twitter will follow you back today we're getting into the new Yahoo 51 through 7 5 range we've done the top 25 we've done 26 through 50 those uh videos are also on the old man squad feed uh episodes also on the old band Squad feed however you're taking in the content and today we're taking a look at the rearranged basically I guess that's the early fifth through uh early sth rounds question mark yeah that's the one and because I have like 19 things all jammed into four hours today this is going to be a little bit of a lightning round show so let's go ahead and dive straight in this is uh an important chunk of players because this was an area that as you guys might remember last time around I pretty much hated all 25 of them I don't hate them all anymore uh a few players moved up into this range that now are kind of like even money type of guys but a few dudes also moved down in this range and are suddenly kind of interesting value plays so let's go ahead and get started Jaylen durran is the first name he's number 51 on the Yahoo board um and not much of a shift for Duren only one slot in fact from 50 down to 51 this is an overpay for him I love Jaylen Duran and you guys I've said this before so stop me if you're getting annoyed my hot take last season was that he would lead the league in rebounding and it wasn't that far off now by totals he certainly didn't cuz he missed 21 ball games but he's actually fifth in the NBA in rebounds per game at only 29 minutes a contest if he was playing 35 minutes like the man sabonis he probably leads the league in rebounds last year so his rebounding per minute rate is extraordinary and I don't expect that to change anytime soon but the problem with Duren is he doesn't get any defensive stats he's a high percentages for a Center High rebounding low defensive stat Center who's not that prolific at scoring yet so it's kind of like and and they play very differently uh but it's a little bit of that yonas valent chunis build of good rebounds good percentages no defensive stats valent chunis however is a more skilled offensive player he gets half a three-pointer he'll score around the rim you can go to him whereas for Jaylen durren yes he outscored valent chunis last year a lot of that was a minutes played issue JV played 23 minutes a game uh Duran doesn't have have game necessarily so I think this is a little bit too early for him uh he was number 79 last year and that'll grow if he plays a little bit more just the rebounds alone will get him there you know two extra minutes a game he creeps up into that you know low like low 60s mid 60s kind of thing but getting to 50 or higher is going to take four probably five extra minutes a game or some shift in how he collects defensive stats and I don't expect that's going to happen miles Bridges at 52 is also a guy who moved down one slot and it's not enough I don't fully understand what the expectation here on is on Bridges he was number 57 last year and that was heavily without lamelo ball playing 37 minutes per game on that tanking Hornets team uh the durability was good the personality was not uh I don't like he's going to do less this year I don't I see almost no chance that he gets to 52 and so I don't like this one at all Zion at 53 is of course a build player he was number 111 last year if you weren't punting anything and then you play the whole okay what do I need to punt to get him there punting free throws is all it takes you punt free throws he was number 50 last year uh so this spot makes sense for that type of build if you were punting turnovers as well he jumps up to number 33 so he's a high turnover terrible free throw shooting power forward who gets good assists for a power forward and then of course he's a massive positive in field goal percent at high volume 57 one of the best in the NBA at that at that spot while also scoring typically those big field goal percent boost guys are not dudes taking 15 or more shots per game there's only a couple of guys that kind of fill that type of role so Zion's a build play I'm obviously not taking him here any place that I'm trying to compete in free throw percent because if you're trying to compete in free throw percent he drags you down if you're punting free throw he's totally fine in this spot maybe a little bit of upside but again the pells are kind of wonky so I don't know that I'd go down that path but Zion at 53 punt free throw fine every other scenario not good Pascal cakam is actually not all that different in that regard if you were punting free throws uh last year cakam slides up to number 53 which is basically exactly his pre- rank if you were not punting free throws however he didn't get to this rank so back toback the thing about zakum is that he doesn't get treated as a punt free throw guy because his number is not that Earth shatteringly bad he shot 73% but it was five attempts per game so he kind of like slid under the radar a little bit in terms of the negative impact he had on free throw percent and it makes sense because the prior year he was at 77% but his field goal was also much lower so which cakam are we going to get this season it's hard to say um historically field goal percent has bounced around a lot there's been very little consistency uh in frankly either of his percentages throughout his career and I can't fully explain it but you know this year at 53 and a half% previous two seasons were 48 49 and a half then it dropped to 45 going backwards there was another 45 55 before that you know a lot of it has to do with shot profile uh his two-point conversion rate there were a couple years where it dipped but generally it's in the mid 50s sometimes even creeping into the high 50s even at 60 his three-point percentage was better this year in Indiana 38 a half% but his career 33 percenter and so you can kind of Trace his field goal percent to how many three balls he's taken 2019 2020 he took six three-pointers a game in Toronto and so his overall field goal percent was 45 yes his two-point field goal percent was also worse just the overall shop profile was not as good my expectation is that he's G to do pretty much what he did in Indiana after the trade last year which is somewhere between two and a half and three and a half three-pointers per game out of about 16 shots per game and so the field goal % should be on the better side of what he's done throughout his career free throw I just don't know Indiana he shot 70% in Toronto last year was at 76% none of it makes any damn sense but I mean you go back to his rookie season his free throw was 69 62 79 twice 83 dropped all the way back down to 75 77 and then 73 trying to predict Pascal siakam's free throw percent is some like stupid blindfold dart throwing the way he gets to this pre- rank of 54 is if the field goal holds in the low 50s and the free throw comes back up from 73 to 77 or better which isn't nuts it's you know quite doable he was 78th ranked player last year but you are banking on a thing that we don't have any reasonable expectation that it's about to happen because this like based on his career his free throw could go down just as easily as it could go up he's not a great percentage or a uh not great defensive stats guy but he'll score board assist and then presumably field goal percent will be a small positive I think we'll see but again shop profile suggests that it probably will be so it's not the worst pick in the world but I don't really like caket 54 because getting above this feels like a stretch Emanuel quickly at 55 however I kind of like uh we did a a long profile on him a couple of times over the last few days so I don't want to go into too much excruciating detail uh but quickly with the Raptors you know when everybody was H he was number 26 when everybody was healthy for like two and a half three weeks he was right around number 50 so there's actually room for slight improvement over that depending on who's upright around him if anybody has to take off days or whatever I just think you're getting quickly pretty close to the expected outcome and sometimes a safe play is a good one because the upside is RJ Barrett misses some time Scotty Barnes misses some time whoever like anybody around him that's taking shots misses some time also Gary Trent is gone so there is a little bit more out there so I like quickly at 55 um and he went down one slot seak by the way went up eight slots so that's another reason that I'm not super thrilled about it Rudy goar went down from 52 to 56 six this is a very reasonable normal place to take Rudy goar I have no thoughts on it whatsoever this is exactly where he belongs uh Rudy was right around number 50 pretty much all of last season with some ups and downs mixed in this is fine Vu at 57 was someone that fell eight slots and he should have fallen eight slots because Vu last year was number 50 he can probably replicate that this coming season assuming Zack LaVine kind of takes the shots abandoned by The Departed that sounds dark demard de rozan uh but Vu is also a threat to get traded shut down not care all these things he's not a target for me but you know now at 57 I don't think that's the end of the world like end of the fifth round if he falls any farther than that beginning of the 6th I'd be okay with it uh in a way that I very much was not when he was going two-thirds of a round sooner still don't really like it but I don't hate it anymore we've moved from a hate to just general dislike Brandon Ingram at 58 he went the wrong way he was number 60 he went up the board Ingram in that Log Jam I want nothing to do with it and he's not a punt guy in any real capacity not a great turnovers dude but he's decent percentages like not great Steals and blocks but not the end of the universe levels uh okay rebounds good assists like there's he's okay at a lot of stuff but the way for him to get up the board is to have more to do and if anything he's going to have less to do and he's injury-prone so I want nothing to do with Brandon Ingram at 58 he remains one of my least favorite plays on the board and we'll move on Nick Claxton at 59 kind of a polarizing option with Claxton he was number 73 last year uh after being up in the 20s and 30 range the year before uh this this past season and you know the the drop off for him was weirdly Fe field goal percent which is still good but down he shot almost 71% two seasons back and had 3.4 combined defensive stats this year he was at 2.7 defensive stats and shot 63% so his blocks uh in particular and his field goal percent remained Elite but they were Hyper Elite the year before and I don't really know which claxon we're going to get this season especially with Brooklyn likely going into tank mode I'd be a little bit nervous nous about him and he's a punt free throw guy terrible at the foul line I would rather spend my punt free throw Center capital on one of those guys we've been talking about that's in that like 110 to 130 range Trace Jackson Davis Mitchell Robinson uh I mean Daniel Gafford isn't really a punt free throw guy but he's down in that range Derek Lively is in that range I don't see the necessity to go Claxton there because if there's any additional drop off he's the same as those dudes if he stays the same he's a little bit better than them but if there's drop off whoopsies Mel Bridges at number 60 I am very much okay with this one this is where he belongs his role likely shifts back to a little more defense and a little more efficiency I don't think we can guarantee that he leaps all the way back to the efficiency of Phoenix but he probably continues to do a little more on offense than the Phoenix years so there's some kind of scales of Justice balancing that's likely to take place with male Bridges this is exactly where he belongs he's probably going to be like a 45 to 80 range dude this pretty much splits the difference on that is there a chance he could beat this yeah yeah is there a chance he goes behind it also yes he's going to play tibs is going to roll him out there a ton of minutes and he's got pretty good positional eligibility and he's likely to get you some decent steals this year my guess would be higher than the one he got last year in Brooklyn in just a awful situation like nobody got along for the Nets it was it was ugly uh so I kind of like Mel Bridges at 60 I don't know that I'd call him a massive value or anything but he's a very reasonable play there and again sometimes reasonable is okay we are zooming but let's take a 10-second break for a commercial Darius Garland at number 61 we've got into a lot of detail on where Garland belongs he was number 109 last year but a lot of that was a turnovers issue if you wiped out Garland's turnover so eight cat he was number 61 and it went about as horribly as a season could go I would expect both of his percentages to be better this coming year even if nothing else changes for him that increases his scoring and threes and positive impact on free throw and reduces the negative impact in field goal maybe the turnovers even a tiny bit lower like even just tiny incremental changes in those things makes him an 8at win at 61 and probably a nine cat maybe small loss but you're also looking at one of the last assist guys out there that can get you more than six and a half a game in a good season there's like two more after Garland and they don't score so I'm okay with him there it's not my favorite but I get it there's the the the statistical scarcity element so it makes sense uh Zack LaVine at 62 uh Garland by the way who went up from 67 to 61 so it makes it a little bit less fun there LaVine went up from 71 to 62 this is surprising and I would say if this was like a Vegas line it would lead you to believe that he's playing on opening night I still don't know if LaVine is playing on opening night and so at 62 that's too rich for my blood I liked him in the 70s I don't like him in the 60s cuz now he moves up with some other guys that have a little bit more staying power uh not necessarily this dude DeAndre Aon behind him at 63 this is where he belonged Aon opened up at an absurd 88 and then jumped up 25 slots at 88 he was the easiest call in fantasy because even if he played 45 games it would still be a win at 63 this is an accurate spot because there's a big big shutdown risk factor with Aiden but he's likely to be two rounds better than this on a per game basis so again you weigh the two things games cap Roto easy call at 63 head-to-head I mean still okay there but I'd probably rather have a guy I expect to play in March and April on the head-to-head side call him a coin flip head-to-head aen at this juncture Tobias Harris jumped way up the board also he and DeAndre Aton were some of the biggest pre-ranked leapers from 81 to 64 on Tobias and I still think he's a value even at his new pre- rank again reminder he was number 48 last year someone on Twitter made a really good point I think they were like Tobias Harris is basically like what jayen what we all want Jaylen Johnson to be which I mean true not true whatever Jaylen Johnson going be better defensively than Tobias but like both of these guys are taking a likely a usage jump forward and everybody is falling over themselves and I get it Jaylen Johnson's going to be fun I would love to have him on my team team too but you're going to have to spend a third round pick likely on Johnson you can get Tobias Harris here in the sixth round and their Seasons might end up pretty freaking similar so I still like Toby at 64 Julius Randall at 65 is probably not a guy I'm targeting he is more of a uh first of all he's he's much better in eight cat than nine cat so let's make sure we clear that up he was number 67 in8 Cat last year and this is basically what his pre- rank is um so if you're playing eight8 cat this is this is fine uh and if you're playing eight8 cat and punting a percentage then he's a good pick here if you're playing nine cat then he's a little too pricey at this spot because I get it like you could just say I'm ignoring turnovers but rand's turnovers are very high and I don't think the payoff is quite worth it like I'll I'll you know I'll step in it for say Darius Garland who I know only one and a half more assisted game last year but 08 steals more per game better three-point shooting you don't get as many points but I just you know Garland the percentages collectively are not doing quite as much damage as Randalls I just I would prefer that stat set and maybe that's the personal preference thing but that's just where I sit so I don't really like Randall here but again for eight cat I get it Brandon Miller at 66 is one where I am a little bit different than the consensus on him he was very good uh down the stretch when he got to do a crap ton he was taking 15 16 shots of ball game and rolling up points and a ton of Threes he's basically like a small forward who plays like a small shooting guard from a fantasy standpoint doesn't rebound much doesn't pass much doesn't steal much doesn't block much field goal low free throw high so what fantasy stats set did I just describe points three free throw percent that's a shooting guard and I don't know like I don't really know what position they're going to have uh Brandon Miller playing Charlotte's a goofy goofy situation his I think his rebounds will be a little better than a typical shooting guards and you know the Steels will probably be okay like Steels and blocks combined he was at 1.5 last year and that's not the end of the universe uh but like we're going to need to see a field goal percent growth marker for him am I comfortable predicting that I am not and that's probably where I differ from consensus I think a lot of folks are like look second year in the league he's just going to get that field goal percent growth and I'd say better than 50-50 shot that he does but then you're like okay well how much does he go from 44 to 45 46 can it get to 47 if he gets to 47 that probably gets him to this range in rank and so that's why I'd rather take the guys right behind him on the board which is Devon vasel at 67 far would prefer Devon vasel especially because too Brandon Miller went up four slots in the last pre- rank so he got a little bit more expensive Vel pretty much stayed the same he went up one pocket and as you guys know I like to see things and Vel was number 68 last year and if you see any growth from him then he beats this Mark and it wasn't like the Spurs brought in a whole bunch of usage in the offse Harrison Barnes is not going to steal a bunch of Devon vel's usage and if anything Chris Paul's gonna come out there and get these guys set up in a better spot so like the Hope here is that if efficiency changes on vasel and there's no way to predict that it will or will not I would say better than 50-50 shot it gets better like 65 35 it could get worse everybody could always get worse than people have up seasons and down Seasons but if for Vel if the efficiency gets a little bit better in either percentage and if it's both then he definitely beats this pre- rank I don't know that he's going to do more on the court than 15 and a half shots per game but I expect him to be better with his time on the court so I like vasel is 67 I like Mark Williams at 68 he fell in the last board reshuffling by nine slots at 59 we had kind of priced him out a little bit which was very surprising given he had one of the most frustrating seasons in Fantasy last year playing 19 games and then being listed as doubtful for the next 50 but in 27 minutes a night he was number 60 in fantasy he's not a terrible foul shooter at 72% from the big man spot so you don't have to worry about a punt if he plays another 2 minutes per game he's over 10 rebounds and he's up to 1.2 1.3 blocks in that situation he was close to a steal a game last year so he's probably a two plus Steals and blocks guy and a 10 plus rebounds guy and a dude who helps you more than he hurts in percentages and you can get him now almost around later I like Mark Williams at 68 and I think there's a chance he slips farther than that he's been trending down if I'm I'm remembering my ADP board correctly yeah he fell by 1.6 probably because of this new pre- rank he's going at 73.2 which is later than his pre- rank of 68 I love him at 73 nerk at 69 I do not like all that much in this spot I nerk scares the be Jesus out of me for one he is more of a punt free throw dude he shot 64% last year and you know it could get better remember he was remember when he shot 90% in the bubble and we were like holy crap Yousef nurkic is a second round player for eight days that didn't quite stick free throws throughout his career have typically been in the mid to high 60s that's just where they've been he had one eight game Run of 89% actually he was at 77% the year before that that was a weird one anomalous expect him to be in the 60s uh he was also super healthy last year for the first time in about six seasons that was something we should probably say less likely to happen again but overall he had about as I thought as good of a season as you could expect and Phoenix got deeper Mason plumley's in town they brought more uh wings and guards around they could run small if they wanted to if anything if nur's numbers go in any direction they probably go down and that's my fear with him now if you're punting free throw he was number 62 last year so this was totally fine at 69 but again I don't see it getting better so he's probably not a guy I'm targeting here and frankly I'd rather go yakob purle around later because I think he's a safer bet to post similar numbers nerk may be a little better uh Michael Porter Jr at number 70 this is fine um he was at 63 before he's at 70 now this is actually this is like an even money play I have nothing to say on mpj he's going to be right around 75 probably all season long and so you take him basically where he's going to go and even is okay Keegan Murray at 71 scares me a little bit he's a guy we're trying to make guesses on uh based on what demard de rozen is going to do he was number 59 last year I don't think he does more this season but I really liked what he did last year so is a one round drop off a fair place I think I'd rather him go a little later and he did fall in the last board from 64 to 71 I bet he falls again in the next board maybe I'm wrong but Keegan I'd rather get him one round deeper this is the end of the sixth round his pre- rank right now I'd rather get him end of the seventh round and then I'd start to feel relatively safe just a few names left and we'll wrap this bad boy up again we're kind of moving fast today cam Thomas a huge leaper on the last board jumped from 92 to 72 and took the fun right out of it he was number 130 last year over the second half of the Season he was number 78 which mind you better over the last two months last year he was number 85 and over the last one month last year he was number 72 which is precisely where he's getting drafted that was on 20 shots per game 6.8 free throws big negative in field goal big positive in free throw scored a ton Two and A threes and not much else four rebounds three and a half assists. five steals three blocks he has no defensive upside whatsoever 20 shots a game is probably your target I know there's this like oh you g take 25 shots a guys just can't keep up that pace for an entire season they fall apart especially if they're going into tank mode I think 72 is about where Cam Thomas belonged I thought at 92 he was a fun chance to take at 72 I don't know that there's a whole lot of room for him to jump Beyond this he's not going to just magically become a great passer and go to five and a half assists per game three and a half was actually pretty good for him during that last month I don't expect his shot profile to change all that much I don't expect his defensive stats to change all that much and I'd be a little worried about the seven free throws keeping up so I don't like cam Thomas at 72 he'll be fun you'll get some 40o games but it's going to be you know like the buan bogdanovich game where it's 40 points one rebound one assist no steals three three-pointers on you know like 133 out of 30 shooting and you know seven for seven at the free throw line or something like you know that that's the kind of line you're looking at which is that'll be fun that night but then you're gonna dig you're gonna squint at it and you're gonna go oh piss like I got three really good categories and then a mess everywhere else Brook Lopez at 73 you know it's funny I don't have that much excitement about Brooke this year he's always a guy I've targeted but his role changed so much under Doc Rivers and he was like a 90 range dude cuz he just he wasn't blocking two and a half shots a game anymore it was at like 1.6 1.7 and that's where his value was tied up and these these heavy blocks dudes when you peel off for him it was like a third of his blocks and he became just very good at that category instead of you know can carry you in a given week kind of guy and his value fell off a cliff you know from 30 to maybe Brooke gets back into a Groove maybe they adjust things a little bit so he goes shot blocking crazy I think 73 is a pretty fair spot for him but there believe it or not is a chance that he does worse than that so Brook Lopez is the path you take here if you're punting rebounds probably and you missed out on Miles Turner earlier or maybe you want to just sort of double up on that not great rebounding shot blocking centers that won't hurt your percentages that's where he makes a lot ofense sense in this juncture because if you're a if you're punt rebound big like he he was fantastic in punt rebound even on the stretch to get 1.7 blocks from a big man who's not rebounding that's great because you know threes and free throw percent and like he does this other stuff but if you're hoping to get big man stats out of him and you badly need every block he could bring to the table then maybe he's not the play there so call it again a bit of a coin flip so I'll say he's in about the right spot Clint capella it's 74 I absolutely detest this rank this feels like a typo he was number 91 on the board before and even that I thought was questionable but also I can sort of write it off as uh punt free throw because capella was 95 last year in nine cat punt free throw he was 59 it seems like his job is going to uh shrink if you're punting free throws like this is fine but again I I would still suggest just going and get one of those guys that's going late like Walker Kessler was number 64 punt free throw last year capella was 59 and you can get Walker Kessler now like three and a half four rounds later three rounds later I guess there's absolutely no reason to get Clint capella when you can get Kessler or Trace Jackson Davis or Derek Lively all these guys last year were in that same like Derrick livly was like 15 slots behind capella and spent half the year hurt you know and then the Mitchell Robinson was awful last year and he was still number 89 if you were punting free throws there's no reason to spend draft capital on Clint capella at this juncture regardless of what you're doing with your team I I Know Dan you say Dan I'm punting free throw go get a cheaper one sore up your other categories First Take Porter Jr before take Beal take DLo all these guys take care of categories that you can't get three and a half rounds later but a punt free throw you can and finally Tyler herro at 75 he stayed exactly the same did not move one of the rare players on the last Yahoo board that didn't shift at all uh I happen to think this is too early on hero he was 89 last year on a team that now has a redundant piece which is Terry Rosier he's also been perennially now pretty dinged up in what I would call as a slightly Juiced up shooting guard fantasy profile points threes free throw perc he's also better than most shooting guards at rebounding but otherwise no defensive stats bad field goal percent uh I mean like it's not going to kill you hero is not going to kill you at this pick but there's minimal upside here as long as Rosier Butler and Bam are all still around these guys are going to be sharing the rock hero is not going to be the guy initiating I mean he's good basketball player but the days of him pushing top 50 on a healthy Heat team probably over now if he gets his free throw number back up remember a couple years ago he was in the low 90s that was crazy but crazy awesome then yeah that's a way that he moves up and maybe can get near that 75 but just don't Bank on it shooting what did he shoot two seasons back what did I flash up on the screen there 93% that's a really hard number to maintain for someone that's a pretty good shooter but maybe not like the best on planet Earth to recap oops I screwed that up I biffed the recap ladies and gentlemen I biffed it uh to recap the players that I do and do not like in this range uh I like Emanuel quickly in this range I like Tobias Harris I uh like Devon vasel and I like Mark Williams I don't like Brandon Ingram I don't like USF nurkic I don't like Clint capella I think a lot of guys are even money in this T oh I don't really like Jaylen durran all that much uh or miles Bridges either um you got a lot of uh build guys in there like Zion cakam Garland who I actually kind of like uh I don't really like CLA all that much Mel Bridges Aon are are even money uh Michael Porter Jr even money Keegan maybe a little early cam Thomas a little early Brook Lopez kind of even money hero perhaps a little early as well thanks for tuning in everybody this was 51 through 7 five we have one more chunk of these 25s to go during this iteration of the Yahoo board and we'll get to that when we get to it today very special day we will have uh oh I I remember now uh later on today we're going to chat with Josh Lloyd head-to-head strategy how to win your head to head League that should be a lot of fun that'll be coming up later on this afternoon like rate subscribe and comment on the way out if you're watching on YouTube and we'll catch up with you guys very soon so long for now [Music]