German elections: ‘We’ve got a real problem’ says expert after historic far-right wins | DW News

Germany's far-right AfD wins first state election we begin with an historic outcome here in Germany the far-right alternative for Germany party has won Sunday's election in the Eastern State of theia where it's considered by German intelligence to be an extremist organization that threatens democracy it's also being investigated at a national level for possible extremism the party known as afd won just under a third of votes in the state it vocally opposes Military Support to Ukraine and wants to prohibit most IM ation the most recognizable phas of Germany's farri right afd now B herker has led a right-wing extremist party to win a regional election for the first time since 1945 an historic Victory the afd victory in theing deals a devastating blow to Germany's mainstream parties of the three in the Coalition governing at National level only the social Democrats passed the 5% threshold needed to enter Parliament now hooker aims to lead the regional government here we're ready to take on the responsibility of forming a government it's parliamentary tradition here in Germany that the strongest party invites others to talks in the coming week we'll hold talks in the party committees we'll analyze the situation and then we'll decide to whom we will present the offers of talks but just who would take up that offer is another question other parties have strictly ruled out governing with the afd which they see as anti-democratic in Germany's other Regional election in sexy the governing conservative CDU may have narrowly fended off the gains made by the afd to come first there we all know how disappointed people are with what's happening in Berlin and the people here in Saxony trusted us they didn't cast a protest vote instead they gave us this strong result with their support but it could still face problems if the current Regional Alliance fails to secure an absolute majority or to agree a coalition deal the conservatives could face the prospect of having to negotiate with a leftwing populist BSW to keep the afd at Bay the mainstream parties face another challenge in 3 weeks when a third Eastern German State Brandenburg also votes for a new Parliament the afd's leading polls there but the populist BSW is also a force to be reckoned with the regional political landscape in the East is becoming increasingly unpredictable for some analysis now I'm Dan Hough, University of Sussex joined by Dan Huff he's a professor of politics at the University of Sussex in the United Kingdom with a special focus on German politics thank you for joining me this is the first time that a farri party has won a state election in Germany since the second world war why is this happening now well there's lots of different reasons some are shortterm some are much longer term um the most obvious reasons are to do with Ukraine many in Eastern Germany are deeply unhappy with the way the German government has dealt with the issue of Ukraine they are arguably a little bit more sympathetic towards Russia than uh those in Western Germany there's a lot of unhappiness to do with the current federal government and all three parties in the federal government performed abysmally in uh these two states elections much longer term there's dissatisfaction with um The Fallout from German unification which is now well over 30 years ago um but many in the East feel deeply unhappy with the way that um unification has developed it's not that they want to go back to the gdr but they don't want to protest about some of the things that they feel have been have ended up with them getting the thin end of the wedge so why some why so much anger at the current German government beyond the the war in Ukraine well the current German government is is very new in the sense of its three parties and German governments have not in the past been three parties working together there've been two parties and on the face of it you might think well you know one extra party might not make that much difference but the present German government has been very very ineffective at getting more or less anything done and Germans are very unhappy with public services uh they're very unhappy with um the the the way way that uh money is spent or not spent in Germany there's a real issue with the budget there's a gaping hole uh this that that the German uh government has not been able to fill and whatever the German government has tried to do it's either failed or it's never even got off the ground and trying to achieve these things so many in the East feel that it's it's just not been effective at getting anything done and it's even made uh uh things worse so 32% of the vote going to a the afd that is considered in the state of Thia an extremist organization by German domestic intelligence what is the chance of this party actually governing there in thoring uh very slim very slim indeed because the other parties are not going to touch it um and despite what people like bu and hooker might claim um that they can make all the offers they like uh that the other parties are not going to go anywhere near it and the afd guys are well aware of that the problem for all of the other parties is that there is not really any other coalitions that that naturally look like they might work there's an awful lot of slaughtered cows going to have to be uh you know have to be out there if any Coalition is going to come together in Turing intering it at all so there's a real problem U no one wants to work with the afd but no one has any real viable alternative to get a government together so so that means we've got you know we we've got a real problem Dan Huff he's a professor of politics at the University of Sussex thank you my pleasure Bon hooker the leader of the Far-right leader invites other parties for talks fire right alternative for Germany in the state of Thia says he wants to head up a coalition government in the state we're ready to take on the responsibility of forming a government it's parliamentary tradition here in Germany that the strongest party invites others to talks in the coming week we'll hold talks in the party committees we'll analyze the situation and then we'll decide to whom we will present the offers of talks our correspondent Matthew Moore is in the state parliament of the of theia DW’s Matthew Moore reports from Thuringia Matthew good to see you the leader of the far right there says he wants to govern is he going to be able to going to be very difficult Jared not least because he is the leader of party which the mainstream political establishment in Germany has said that they will not work with they formed a brand M as you say in German a firewall around this party said that they will not work with them because they consider them to be extremists and basically anti-democratic that's going to make it very very difficult for bean hooker to form a coalition now he said tonight as we heard he said to the other parties to come and and and sit down with him and negotiate and he warned them not to ignore the afd and that's a warning that he can actually now use the other parties are really going to have to crack their heads together and see if they can overcome the differences that they have a lot of them really deep lying differences over big issues so can Pon hooker form a government I I think it's going to be incredibly difficult at this stage but it's interesting that distinction you make too Matthew because even if they can't govern they still will be able to wield significant influence now where you were there was a protest earlier how have people been reacting to this news there there was a I guess dejection um from the evening but even before the results came out Jared people have been expecting this for for a long time you know people are saying not really shocked we have no Illusions we know the far right are on are on the march here however they said that it was important to come together and to show that there is a kind of peaceful there is a a pro-democracy there is an anti-ar right majority in this state and that's worth bearing in mind even as we sit here on this historic moment as a milestone moment in the in in the rise of the far right in Germany that 70% are so of Voters around that voted for other parties um and what makes the afd so so kind of strong is the fact that Germany has a very fragmented multi-party system now the mood out here tonight is one basically that we're in a turning point that people need to wake up and and that's what I kind of heard from people directly who were just saying you know that the only hope they have now is that people H political leaders here in tringa and across Germany really stick to their promises to have this fir worldall in place and that fire is this this this refusal to cooperate and do any sort of business on a state level on a national level with the far right alternative for Germany party and we'll see now how how how how strong that firewall really is in the coming weeks and months Matthew you've been traveling right across the region in recent weeks tell us what have voters main concerns been as they've been speaking to you ahead of these elections so on the one hand you have huge concerns about what the far right AF the coming top in their state actually means what it means for the story that they're telling themselves about the Germany they live in this moment is really a moment to reckon with because you know Germany has has done a lot of work painstaking work in in decades since the second world war to really overcome its past and this is like it's seen as for many Democratic Germans as a moment where they think what is going on in my country on the other hand you've got people who are supportive of the afd who are supporting parties who are on the extreme the populist left who are saying that the country is going in completely the wrong direction that the federal government in Berlin which is run by a coalition of parties that they're basically they've got the heads in the sand about the problems at Germany faces that they're they're dragging Germany into a war that involves Russia and Ukraine and that's not in the Germany's interest then you've got the this underlying issue of migration here now Germany's a massive country 80 million people and the numbers of migrants ir regular migrants arriving here every year really quite small in comparison but still the issue has massive cut through when you ask Germans what they care about migration is right up there and this was a regional election Jared we're talking about Regional elections to De with local issues and the big issues on the campaign are peace migration so issues that are really kind of geopolitical national picture and that's just fed through and what it's resulted in tonight is this historic result where the afd have basically managed to ride this wave of of upset and anger and frustration and take it to to to the top position as I say we don't know yet whether the efd will actually manage to to form a government that's our political correspondent Matthew Moore in the in thuringia speaking to us about the election results there Matthew thank you let's go over to Saxony now the AfD comes second in Saxony neighboring state and look at the expected results there projections are indicating a slight lead for the Conservative Christian democrats or CDU right now the CDU is in a governing Coalition with the greens and the center-left social Democrats let's look at these projections they've got the CDU on track to win almost 32% the vote they're followed just behind by the afd on 30.8% the newcomer BW SAR vagen KES Alliance is in third place taking some 12% Chancellor Olaf Schultz of social Democrats the SPD they're in fourth with 7.3% followed by the greens with just over 5% of the votes now m o ketma is the leader of the CDU in the state of Saxony he's also the current Premier there he thanked party workers and supporters a short time ago I think dear friends that we have every reason to celebrate five hard years are now behind us national elections European elections are behind us we all know how disappointed people are with what's happening in Berlin and the people here in Saxony trusted us they didn't cast a protest vote instead they gave us this strong result with their support congratulations and thank you very much for making it happen Michelle ketchman there Let's DW’s Giulia Saudelli reports from Saxony cross now to DW political correspondent Julia selli in Dresden who was at the afd election party a little bit earlier now Julia the afd is projected to come second in Saxony which is their best ever result there what's been the reaction among uh the party there well we saw earlier some reactions of satisfaction some reactions of Joy because uh this is a good result for the afd they have gain gained votes compared to uh the election state election here five years ago um and they have come in a second again and they've gotten closer and closer to the CDU that is ahead of them at the moment project projections showing just a 1% difference between the two parties there was a bit of hidden disappointment I would say because I think there was hope that the afd would also be able to maybe come in first here in Saxony too and that would have been a really a groundbreaking result because it was really a neck and neck race with the CDU uh some were still hoping that this might happen as the votes kept coming in and keep coming in uh during the evening there was also some uh rejoicing and celebration when members of the afd saw other parties who they really don't like who they see some of them see as their main enemies for for example the greens not performing particularly well but there were also uh people considering what kind of consequences uh this result may have at the national level and we can take a listen we ask some people there uh what they thought about this issue with the results as there are there should actually be consequences at the federal level but since we know that these are all ministers who are glued to their chairs nothing's likely to happen the federal government must also take into account what's happening in the regional States and how people have become tired of politics and of course this must have consequences we've done well and the afd is actually a very good party and all this bad talk before for the election that's not right I think the afd has potential for the future for the children and in general back to Julia selli and Dresden Julia as we just heard afd members demanding consequences on the national level do you think that the result for the afd not only in Saxony but through India too is is also a wakeup call for the federal government in Berlin I think in some way is but I think the biggest wakeup call is actually the very bad results that the three parties that are at in the coalition government in Berlin at the federal level uh gained in in these two uh elections the U liberal fdp is out of the both parliaments had terrible results the green are now out of the parliament in in tja and barely made it into Saxony so clearly there is a big dissatisfaction with the government in Berlin something that the afd has has banked on has played on to to get the results that they got here and uh we have to keep in mind there is still one uh state election happening in about three weeks in Brandenburg also in Eastern Germany and once that happens and plays out uh there might uh be some consequences also that the coalition government in Berlin is going to have to draw from these results Julia as we've been hearing no one really wants to form a coalition with the afd but can a party that wins so many votes be ignored yeah well they they have about onethird of uh of the parliament and uh that is doesn't seem to be enough for them to take on the role of uh what is known um as um The Blocking minority once uh uh the one party controls even if it's in the opposition onethird of the votes they can block a lot of dis decisions that require a 23d uh majority in the state Parliament now that doesn't seem to be case according to the projections but uh the party will still have a lot of influence and we've heard uh from people at the at the party uh at the election party of the afd questioning why the other parties don't want to go into a coalition with them one woman told me that she thought actually the CDU the conservative CDU and the afd could work very well together uh but basically the result now is that there isn't really a coalition that can can find a a good majority uh without the afd the parties again are trying to keep that firewall up and not wanting uh to involve the afd in a coalition but it's going to be really hard to uh try to form a government here in Saxony that's DW political correspondent Julia selli in Dresden for us Julia thank you and I'm joined in the studio by Richard Walker, DW chief international editor Richard Walker our chief International editor Richard High a projected win for the far right in through inia this would be the first time a fire right party has won the most seats in a German State Parliament since the second world war what does this mean for Germany yeah well I think it's a kind of shock to the system Jared I mean there is the the sense of a of a historical Rubicon being crossed here um as you say that the this has not happened since the end the end of the second world war that a far-right party uh comes first in a regional election and it's just the latest and what seems like a kind of a series of Milestones that this party is managed to achieve over the years it's only been around since the year 2013 so it's only just over a decade but it's it's really kind of taking Milestone after Milestone getting steadily larger on the national level um just recently earlier in the summer coming second in the European elections and this was seen as part of a bit of a sweep in many European countries also with far-right parties going so far um and now coming first in in a in a state in this state of theia and I think what kind of sets apart the far right in Germany from the far right in other European countries is of course the the historical Legacy that Germany has o of Nazism the caused the Holocaust that set off the second world war that you know absolute devastation in Germany and across the European continent um that that really lurching far to the right has long been a serious taboo um and with each of these Milestones being taken by the afd people are wondering okay you know is this taboo really seriously being undermined and and how far could it go is this you know are there many more Milestones to come so I think a lot of people in Germany are going to be concerned about that tonight when we look at these Milestones that you've outlined over the past I I guess 11 years or so uh for people who are watching and and you've talked about this trajectory can it mean that the afd will govern given what we've seen particularly in theia today that that's very unlikely so um in Germany you have a pretty fragmented political landscape which means that parties need Coalition Partners to be able to get a majority in their respective parliaments whether it's on a regional basis or on a national basis um the afd around the 30 to 33% kind of Mark in thuringia um it would need Coalition Partners to form a government and all of the other parties have said we're not going into Coalition with you uh we think you're be on the pale we think that you're anti-democratic and that's not going to happen um and it I think it's most likely that that firewall as they often called it call it will hold at this point um and that other parties will form coalitions to create a government but what's possible is that you will start to see this firewall being chipped away at um you know some parties say well you know if the afd come up with a proposal in the regional Parliament and we think it's sensible then we'll vote with it rather than just object to it simply because they brought it along that would be the sort of thing that could come along you might also see a debate emerging with the m within the mainstream conservatives uh which you've seen first inklings of already of saying well you know they're on the Cent you know we're on the center right they're a bit further to the right can't we cooperate on some things so so that's I think something that we'll have to watch in the months and years ahead to see whether this taboo this firewall really does start to to kind of break apart Richard let's talk about another party a brand new populist party that's performed very well in these elections it's called the SAR venes Alliance why does this party appeal to so many voters it appears it's come third in in Thia and Saxony yeah and I mean what's really striking about this party is it didn't exist just a few months ago um it's emerged um as part of a split from the left party which is on the sort of far left of German politics and is also partly one of the inheritors of of the the former communist that used to rule in Eastern Germany um and this very charismatic leader from that party split away from the left party saying that she felt that it had gone too far down the kind of identity politics you know saying you know this is all about wokery you know stuff like that and saying that she wanted to kind of redefine a new kind of leftwing politics which is kind of anti- capitalist and left-wing in terms of economics but in terms of some um social and societal issues is more conventionally right-wing so like a more right-wing attitude towards migration um and also having uh a strong uh attitude against Germany's support of Ukraine in in the war that's ongoing or Russia's invasion of Ukraine and that's where her party then overlaps with the afd because that also um has very much that attitude so so this party is really kind of it's come out of pretty much nothing it's got a charismatic leader um and I think it it really appeals to a lot of people who think they want to shake up the system they're unsatis dissatisfied with the way that German politics is going but they don't necessarily want to go the whole hog to the afd which you know lot of people have have issues with and this party has provided a home for them we don't know what kind of potential this party has in Western Germany it's very much rooted in Eastern Germany so far at least the support that we're seeing for it but it's just another sign of how kind of turbulent the the German political scene is right now that's our chief International editor Richard Walker Richard thank you very much for that analysis