Apple Stock | Should You Buy Now? | AAPL Stock Analysis

Apple Inc tick symbol AAP is currently trading at $228 a share year to date it is up almost 22.83 beating out the likes of Amazon Microsoft and uh especially Tesla not so much Nvidia though but what we're going to be doing today is looking at my automated stock valuation spreadsheet to see if apple is a buy or a sell using the discounted free cash flow model the comparable company model the dividend discount model and of course the bangr formula for intrinsic value so as I st said at the start the stock is currently trading at $228 has had a pretty good year to date up 22% uh if we were to compare to the S&P 500 in this similar time I have no surprises that that will be winning yes 22% compared to 18 180% year today if we go from the last year H pretty neck and neck surprisingly uh S&P 500 has grad uh just very uh gradually beat out Apple 26.9% compared to 26.55 but over the Last 5 Years not very close at all up almost 336 compared to the snps 92 so let's go have a look at my automated stock valuation spreadsheet if we type in the ticker Apple what this will do is it will load all the latest company financial data if you're interested please check out my patreon um but let's have a Look So currently price of $228 market cap 3.4 trillion PE ratio of 34 which is slightly higher than the market average of 29 so that a pretty good sign already earnings per share $657 bet of 1.24 meaning it is slightly more volatile in the market and analysts do think it is a buy 235 to yeah $235 a share for the Target price a dividend yield of 44% which gives you about $1 per share H it is a very safe dividend only about 15% on the payout ratios as they pay 15.3 billion in the dividend so let's have a look at the revenue uh Revenue down from its all-time highs trailing 12 months has been 2023 with 384 billion but down from its all-time highs of 2022 of 391 you can see we had a big jump up here in 2021 and they did beat those numbers again but has kind of dropped back down reality but you can see how Apple if we have look at here they do have these big jumps drops back down and then jumps up again so I think this is within sort of reason from what we've seen here back to 2009 H next we're having a look at the net income and they are able to generate even more profit despite the small decrease in net income $12 billion in the last trailing 12 months uh so that is excellent to see all-time highs free cash flow and not a similar story it is down slightly 104 billion down from the 2022 number of 111 but once again steady growth uh consistently on the up which is what we like to see assets versus liabilities liabilities are higher than the assets but you can see it's been pretty consistent here 290 to 114 uh if we have a look at the Discounter free cash flow model this is a way of calculating the stock price uh looking at its expected future C free cash flows discounting them to today's value we will look at the trailing 12 months and if we base on these averages it is currently trading uh way above what it's expecting $104 a share so let's have a look at these numbers here you can see Revenue growth rate is probably a bit on the low side we're expecting 408 and 433 let's see what analysts are saying in similar time yeah we're probably on the bullish side as well uh 104 uh sorry 401 um so yeah I think we'll keep these at about the same net income margins net income margins are around about 26% so we'll just raise us up to 26 that puts it at still about $108 stock and free cash flow to net income we'll go bullish here we'll say 100% still $121 stock so discounting free cash flow very interestingly does not say this stock is a buy and we'll quickly look at the dividend discount model I don't think this all really like it because of the low numbers here um the growth is all over the place here so let's look at around about uh 7% yeah it doesn't really like it it's saying it's it's it's way undervalued at about $60 a share and this is because the the dividend has changed with stock splits and things like that so we will not be looking too much on that H the one I like to look at the most is of course the compar companies model this is a way of uh valuing stocks looking at competitors in a similar size or similar industry and looking at these uh ratios here to see if there's a buyer or sell the things that I'm interested in growth rate profit margin price to sales price to book Peg which is Peter Lynch's formula price earns growth uh EV to revenue EV to EA earnings before interest taxes depreciation ammonization and PE and then this gives us the implied value based on these so we will just go with the classics here Microsoft number one we already have Google as number three and we will probably you know what let's just go with Meta Meta is a very similar uh similar size so if we see here actually we'll probably let's let's go with Amazon uh so apple is the largest with a value of 3.4 billion Microsoft 3 Amazon around about two and Google about two as well Revenue uh second highest only behind Amazon which is interesting due to the fact that obviously Amazon has a lot of revenue from the e-commerce which is we'll see why their profit margins are a bit lower a growth rate is the slowest out of the four which is quite interesting to see EA the highest 131 billion compared to Microsoft 129 115 for alphabet and then 104 for Amazon net income most profitable company here 102 billion and profit margins though pretty much the same as Google but a lot less than Microsoft which is quite interesting price of Sales middle of the pack nine uh compared to Microsoft's 12 and alphabet 6 Price to Book highest by far uh so we won't be looking at that Peg very close to Microsoft and Amazon Google is a lot lower with 1.2 check out my previous video if you're interested in Google EV to revenue middle of the pack again EV to EA on the high side and PE ratio uh bang in the middle again so if we look at all of these value valuations you can see it actually uh puts it slightly over valued at around about $190 a share let me just quickly switch around Google and Amazon and we'll just look at the secondary sheet here hopefully it does load H if we just look at Microsoft and Google which are the more direct competitors brings it up to around about $22 a share but still slightly overvalued which is interesting uh if we were to compare to uh we want to go with Amazon goog and uh Microsoft God I forgot the last one there and we'll look over the last five years you can see apple is handly beating all those three um with 300% compared to their 180 and 200 but if we go over the last year you can see it is pretty neck and neck um even if we compare it against the uh I don't know I've done this way I was going to say compare it to the Fang which is obviously meta Amazon Google Google we'll do the class C and Netflix I'm sure some people would want this F in order because this currently spells um n oh that's GN I'm a GN um so you can see here if we go over the last five years still the leader in all of these five but in the year to date pretty neck and neck with meta wow up almost 78% in the last year and Netflix as well very crazy finally the bangram formula for intrinsic value H this is way of this is a the final adjust of benr formula for trinsic Value which looks at earnings per share the PE of the Growth Company uh times the Cobra bond yield and the AAA bond yield bond yield is very high at 5.2% and unless analysts are expecting crazy growth from Apple I think this is going to be enough buy o only 11% in the next 5 years so we we'll look that there and puts it at around about $110 a share so they're expecting about a half uh Apple's price to be halfed which is interesting very close to the uh discount free cash flow model but I don't think that would be the case I don't see the stock halfing if it does half buy as much as you humanly can of it um but to see for this to be a buy or fairly valued even that you can see it has to be at around about 30% over the next 5 years so it doesn't seem to like the stock really but once again why are looking at the comparable company model this does give it a more fairly valued at $192 a share right guys thanks for watching please check out the video check out my patreon uh you've already checked out the video check out my patreon if you're interested in the sheet and subscribe if you're not already and I'll catch you guys next time