Trump FLAILING as Harris Leads in the Polls (w/ Bill Kristol) | The Bulwark Podcast

Intro he still can't figure out how to attack kamla yeah like and and it's it's really kind of enjoyable to watch him play like we're we're on the fourth nickname comrade kamla which which I don't think is particularly inspired she's a nasty woman she back to nasty woman it's just not Landon just it's just he just doesn't have [Music] it hello and welcome to the buard podcast I'm your host Tim Miller it is Labor day but podcasting isn't really labor so you know we're working right bill I always thought on lab shouldn't Labor Day be a day when you do labor I mean it should be should it not be called like non- Labor Day or break from Labor Day or something rest and relaxation Leisure day I don't know it's yeah Leisure day for Laborers but this is our Leisure this is just us hanging out with you talking about politics um last night I I don't want to just go too overboard on the sports metaphors here because sometimes some of our listeners it turns them off but don't know if you watched it but my beloved LSU Tigers uh lost to USC there were a couple of times in the fourth quarter where they had the ball where they were winning where all they really had to do was just punch it in you know close the deal they were winning very slightly and um and they just were unable to do it they got a little too conservative they let they let USC catch up and I kind of feel like that's where the state of the race is right now for KLA Harris hopefully the end will be better but she's up by a little bit but I I I want to make sure that we are putting our pedal to the metal for the last two months how's that metaphor strike you yikes I mean I don't follow LSU football as closely as you but that sounds sounds both correct I me plausible as sounds correct as an analysis of where we are and plausible as an unfortunately somewhat plausible as an analysis of where we might end up I I hope not and I I guess I think not but I think they do understand they have to stay on the offense and not go into you know like a prevent defense too early and and so forth though and I think she did a little bit of prevent defense at that interview when was that Thursday night with CNN with Dana Bash but that was I think Tactical for that night not for the next nine weeks I hope and trust yeah I hope that's true because things are good the VES have State of the Presidential Race been good we had we had a new ABC poll out which has her up 52 46 which is our biggest lead in the polls yet um could be an outlier it's one poll um it's the biggest lead that we've seen though in an individual I'm sure we'll be getting more this week uh and and so there is this kind of sense that I was on with JVL we were doing I guess the next level maybe a week or two ago and he and and he was like what what does the equilibrium of this race look like it kind of feels like we actually reached it very quickly yeah right which is a very narrow Harris lead and and and you know I think that is what takes us to is it possible for her to expand that up what can be done to continue to drive Trump down even further and um we were texting over the weekend about one of uh one of the ads of the super pack is is is running so I want to listen to that in the context of kind of where they where they see the race I'm running to fight for an America where the economy works for working people where you only have to work one job to pay the bills and where hard work is rewarded where Reproductive Rights are not just protected by the Constitution of the United States but guaranteed in every state because that's our America and that's the America I believe in FF pack is responsible for the content of this ad so more money has been spent on that ad than any other piece of creative in the campaign so far and it is just a little like okay right that's okay for me I don't know that's fine but uh you know I don't know this is this is where maybe it's my grumpiness coming off that loss last night but this is where I wake up this morning and I'm like I want blood in the teeth because the Trump ads that I was saying during the football games are are are aggressive on the other hand right and and I think that reflects kind of where both campaigns say that think that they are right that the kamla Harris super pack is still doing a Gauzy kind of treatment such as that and the Trump ad is like kamla Harris leted out you know these horrible criminals and you know doing the whole uh Willie Horton deal yeah my my glass half full Vibes kicked in over the weekend too I thought the terrible Trump Behavior at Arlington is it spinning the other way now he's got the families out there saying they invited him he's got a ton of people lying about you know the rules of Arlington and so forth uh Harris weighed in finally with a statement but uh you know on the the ultimately the death of those 13 soldiers Marines in Afghanistan isn't great for the Biden Harris Administration obviously so I I don't know I got nervous also this weekend I a couple things the ABC poll is plus six The Wall Street Journal poll which is a very good poll is plus one Harris so let's just assume it's I assume it's a three to four Point Race right now which is right on the bubble of winning if if you think about the Electoral College she's behind where Clinton and Biden were at this point in the polls but maybe they've corrected the polls you know to pick up the the uh the formerly shy Trump voters maybe they aren't formerly shy Trump voters so maybe that's not the right comparison this is one of these things people could obsess about now but basically it's I think she has a slight Edge uh and I'm a little worried that ad that you played it's a perfectly okay issue ad but I don't know does it convince anyone who isn't already basically for Reproductive Rights and you know isn't already for Harris I think that's the right question I guess I have a slightly so I have two views which are in contradiction with one each other one I like very much share your notion that she has to punch Trump in the nose she has to do it in person at the debate I'm not sure how much paid media will do on that people are used to seeing anti-trump ads at this point yeah right seeing her personally stand up to Trump and land a few blows I think is very important but the other thing is on the issue stuff I still think the bio ads the bi biographical ads might work well for Harris her favorable the one thing that we know is has happened in the last several weeks is her personal favorable unfavorable uh personal but her favorable unfavorable which presumably captures what people think of her not so much the approval of Biden Harris's policies and so forth is about even I think it was 4950 maybe in the ABC poll something like that which is very good compared to where Biden has been where she has been she's been minus 30 and good compared to Trump who's about minus 9 minus 10 in favorable unfavorable if she can make this election who do you like better who who do you who who who do you respond to better which is not nothing in a presidential race where they're going to be in your living room so to speak for four years I think she wins if it's on these issues that it's a little bit up in the air you know which which mistake of Trump versus which mistake of of the Biden Administration or or which policy of harrises that can get you know mischaracterized or characterized it isn't that popular so I guess I'm slightly on the one hand I think she needs to punch Trump on the other hand I actually she still needs to build herself up if she is a favorable fave unfav on Election Day she will win I believe if her favorable unfavorable sinks down to where Trump's is even if it's about the same as Trump's I suspect Trump wins yeah well this why the people don't talk about double haters anymore because there aren't any there's a small handful and and it's because people like her I mean you know besides magga Republicans and uh and so I do think that continuing I guess that's just a distinction it's not that I don't want them to run positive ads I I because I agree with you I think that the B people are still learning about her right kind of right and there're and part I think that's part of the reason why they like her favorability is going up right because she's been pleasantly surprised and you see this in the polls but you see it in focus groups of Sarah's focus groups you listen to those you see it at my life like we had people over for the game last night and people were like yeah Bo she's really surprised me I liked her better than I thought I did and I had a misperception about her you know and so a lot of that has been her performance you can supplement that with paid right by telling people things about her that that they don't know um about her background whether it's da or prosecutor um and so I I think that's good and that and that gives her more room to grow for sure but we just got to do it let's do it yeah that's say on the bio I don't know what you found it's just in personal interactions I think it's a little bit in Sarah's focus groups too it's both the da prosecutor but actually it's her middle- class Origins working in McDonald's the family the mom and so forth I actually think some of that which was so successful at the convention they shouldn't just assume they've done the job on that that that that they could continue that that stuff for quite a while I think for sure and the and uh the the other thing she's got going for Trump has really made a Trump’s Unclear Abortion Stance mess about of the abortion situation we when we last taped on Friday with Margaret Hoover at that time Margaret and I were talking about this and Trump had kind of implied he was going to vote for the Florida abortion measure because he doesn't like the six week ban and then spokesperson had put out a statement saying that he did he did not say that that he was just expressing his dis disapproval with the six week limit in Florida um and then the next after we taped over the weekend the next day um Trump then comes around and says I'm not going to vote for this I'm I'm going to vote no on the on the Florida measure that would enshrine abortion rights I I mean both just like that the fact that he's going to vote no like that just that's a nugget that people can say that he is going to vote against a bill so if you're wondering what would happen when it comes to his desk he's going to vote against a bill that would uh enshrine abortion rights uh in in the law in Florida I think that hurts him with some of these potential voters and then also just the flailing about about it um is is demonstrating somebody that you know I think recognizes the weak position that he's in yeah certainly I he never seems to pay a price much for the flailing about especially if he ends up in sort of a reasonable place and but here on abortion I just think they need to say Trump is going to veto any attempt to project Reproductive Rights that Congress passes whether it's abort and then just describe all the project 2025 stuff to him so it's not just you know codifying row but it's also IVF and it's also contraception I mean without getting in too much in the weeds but they need to get a little bit specific on that I think yeah I think I think the issue remains very strong there's just a huge amount of data for that on that for swing for Democrats and for swing voters and they need to and Trump finally decided that he had to go along with the base on voting I can remember it's four gu voting against the Constitutional Amendment that would protect abortion rights in Florida voting against that and I think they just need to wrap that around his neck yeah absolutely I was kind of surprised that he felt they need to do that I mean to me that shows that that there was actually some real pressure it's always hard for me to tell like when you know a handful of of prominent evangelicals Express disappointment with Trump about something you know part of me is like does he give a flip about them anymore I mean like he already's got them wrapped around his finger right like they've already made the deal with the devil like they're stuck with him now um but the the fact that he felt pressured to say no makes me think that they that they thought that they had some real issues on their you know with within the base this because it's not like it's Trump it's not like Trump hasn't not answered a question before I mean he still hasn't given his healthcare plan 10 years later like he could have just not told anybody how he was going to vote on that bill the whole election measure rather I mean it's not just the Bas I think it's probably don't you think it maybe where the the the evangelicals who are have been put off by Trump and maybe a little more now after the last two three years and just seeing just how bad it is in terms of his character and and the messages and what what trumpism is but the life issue is the one that they come back to you know they are with Trump on or or with Trump nominal not Trump's true views but with what Trump's policies on let's just say and against Harris's policies and you just got to get that issue back not so much to kind of turn out that last true believing Trump is but to turn out that Evangelical who's turned off by Trump a bit but who's still for for her maybe it's mostly her for her that pro-life issue remains very important yeah it's there's there's some baggage on it ever wonder how much of your DeleteMe personal data is out there on the internet for anybody to see more than you think your name contact info social security number home address even information about your family members all of it being compiled by data Brokers and sold online sometimes it's getting sold to nefarious actors you don't want to have it uh one example recently I got called by a scammer that had my address and my signature they're trying to convince me that I need to pay them because forgotten to go to jury duty or something which is kind of the thing I might do but so it was a little bit believable but I sniffed it out but it's a reminder that I've got too much information out there I'm a very minor public figure I don't want everybody having my data that's why I personally recommend delete me delete me is a subscription service that removes your personal info from hundreds of data Brokers sign up and provide delete me with exactly what information you want delet it and their experts take it from there delete me send you a regular personalized privacy report showing what they found where they found it and what's removed delete me isn't just a onetime service it's always working for you constantly monitoring and removing the personal information you don't want on the internet to put it simply delete me does all of the hard work of wiping you and your family's personal information from data broker websites take control of your data and keep your private life private by signing up for delete me now at a special discount just for our listeners today get 20% off your delete me plan when you join delet me.com bwork and use promo code bullwark checkout the only way to get 20% off is to go to join delet me.com buw workkk and enter code bwork at checkout that's join delet me.com bwork codeb workk and Trump Can’t Figure Out How to Attack Harris some more another piece of evidence that Trump is still flailing about a little bit and not you know um doing anything to reshape this race back in his favor uh he still can't figure out how to attack KLA yeah like and and it's it's really kind of enjoyable to watch him play like we're we're on the fourth nickname comrade KLA which which I don't think is particularly inspired and um and here's here's a new attack on tried out on her with uh with Mark Levin last night let's let's listen to that now they have kamla who they say has many deficiencies but she's a nasty person H the way she treated Mike Pence was horrible the way she treats people is horrible what well was that the way kamla treated Mike Pence was horrible I mean like what where did that what does that even come from the debate I guess the one time they ever encountered each other in 2020 but it was just a normal debate right she didn't treat him horribly yeah it was just a normal debate last I checked I mean she did not send an angry mob of people to Ang him like I I'm pretty I'm pretty sure like the this is where we need the George Conway in the episode like just this the level of soci a pathy that you have to be at for him to that it doesn't even cross his mind like maybe Mike Pence treating Mike Pence poorly shouldn't be the example that he goes to because he just doesn't like think about other people's feelings right like literally I don't think that it probably doesn't even occur to him the fact that um I mean he literally left Mike it was his responsibility that that Mike Pence had to get his family and flee yeah from a from a mob yeah what a what a person um that's it was interesting to watch she's a nasty woman he's back to nasty woman it's just not Landon just it's just he just doesn't have it with her right now I assume at the debate they will give him three or four or five reasonably effective lines against the policies that have failed or received to have failed most in the for the Biden Harris Administration Afghanistan inflation the border and just Hammer her on I be crazy not to honestly and and then it becomes a question of how well she both defends herself but also how much how effectively she punches back for me that yeah I agree all this other stuff is just him indulging himself maybe a they can't persuade him what to say or B they figure it doesn't matter what he says this week it's all it's all the debate anyway the fact going into the debate I agre but it's just like the fact that they cannot I mean they've gone through all of like the paint by numbers political attacks you know she's a communist she's extreme she's a flip-flopper you can't trust her and then and then they've laid layered on top of the paint by numbers of attacks the things that only Trump would do like she's not really black she's a Dei hire right like and but there it just it isn't none of it is is really working and and I and I and in some ways they counteract each other in a way that has has limited their ability to um effectively Define her so far right like what would you say like if you just look at right now like I can I can think about what I think would be the most effective attack on on K Harris but we don't really know because they haven't they haven't you know they haven't dialed in on anything I mean maybe the good news might be that their polling and focus groups don't give them an obvious line of attack they're all Limited in certain ways or don't work with some subsets of Voters um it's funny that Trump so it's funny it's the way he is right he thinks the personal attacks is what will win for him I mean I'm not going to say he's wrong but maybe he's unfortunately and sadly right I guess my view as having been around politics for a while but thinking maybe that we're more still in a normal political situation is you have an Administration that has a 40% approval rating 65% of the country think we're on the wrong track just attack the most unpopular policies of a relatively unpopular administration of which he's vice president this isn't very complicated and normally that would put the Challenger in a pretty pretty good place but that's not the way Trump thinks and to be fair maybe it's not the way politics works anymore I don't know yeah the uh the other thing that in theory could with his the phoniness right like that she flip-flopped on certain things and Etc problem with that is you we have JD Vance delivering that attack you you've chosen JD Vance I me he's he's one of the most phony people that we've seen on the national stage uh JD Vance’s Resurfaced Afghanistan Comments there there was one JD Vance quote from over the weekend this the guy just did so many podcasts I just I do have to say I think that my future Ambitions for Vice President are pretty limited by the amount of podcasting I've been doing because I'm not an like JD Vance but still when you know when you just when you're producing the level of commentary that JD was apparently producing on podcast uh there's just a lot of material to work with I I say the opposite it shows that you've got a bright political future he's the Vice Presidential nominee for one of the two major parties at age 39 just keep it up Tim you know okay thanks Bill um here's one of his latest podcast moments that was resurfacing uh following about the Afghanistan withdrawal apparently Afghanistan is a country of translators and interpreters because every single person that's coming in that's what they say this person is a translator and an interpreter um he was saying that as part of a rant about how we should not be bringing in any immigrants or you know any any refugees any people seeking Asylum from Afghanistan not including the people that risked their lives to help uh uh the American Military and help our help our country and help people like our friend will ber I it is just like it is astonishingly callous yeah and and like and you lay it on top of like the comments about not caring about Ukraine about the childless cat ladies about how miserable single women are about how it creeps them out for there to be a single teacher like he just comes off as a monstrous douche like there's just no other way around it yeah I I agree and the Afghanistan stuff in particular aren't we proud that we I we the ending of the war Vietnam was a sad moment but we did take in half a million Vietnamese and they've done very well in this country and I think we think that was kind of the least we could do and in Afghanistan maybe we had to pull out I'm not going to relitigate all that but taking in the people who actually worked for us who were in danger and their families were in danger some of them and their families have been killed by the Taliban and by the people running AF Afghanistan now and the idea that we wouldn't take them in and incidentally there are no har I mean I don't know exactly how they're doing it's probably too early to do the social economic studies but my impression here in Northern Virginia where there are a lot of uh Afghans who who sought Asylum and have been resettled here is they're doing fine and they're working hard and they're admirable people so but it's it's so yeah you're right it's just so callous in a way that I don't think previous candidates whatever their views on immigration policy were were they didn't sound like this demean just the humanity of these people well well I I'll put in the show notes there's a beautiful story about about our friend our former colleague will sber and and his translator that he helped get back here in was it in USA Today it was it was in the last week yeah and it it's it's really really lovely and and bull readers actually had been contributing to a GoFundMe to help get them home so um it is it's a nice contrast with how JD Vance looks at uh looks at folks that were trying to help us and are just trying to come to the land of milk and honey um what the last thing uh we do have to end on a sad note uh on the foreign policy side of things since last Hostages Found Executed in Gaza podcast over the weekend uh there was an Israeli military operation in Rafa um or I guess on the IDF were going into tunnels and uh Hamas then before they could get there executed uh six hostages uh including uh HS Goldberg Poland was an American whose parents spoke at both conventions um just a horrific story and and you know I don't I don't really have big political thoughts on this uh the thing that has frustrated me most about the Israel situation is like when when a thing like this happens like I see on the internet that you know the the people that are the most fervent in their backing of Israel respond to it by saying see like kamla Harris was wrong about this like we needed to do even more aggressive attacks to go in and and then people that are that are critical of BB there's plun to be critical of BB are like see like this is you know we didn't this happened because we didn't get a get to a deal we we gave them too many weapons and I just I don't know that there's a clear answer here um because we're we're dealing with people that just their levels of human of of caring about about humanity and compare caring about the uh the hostages that they took it's just pretty pretty much zero yeah the obviously what happened on October 7th was horrible the taking of hostages was a horrible part of that um and the killing of murder of hostages subsequently is I guess even well also horrible so I mean what can one what can one say yeah the degree to which everyone takes I wouldn't say they even take 10 seconds to say what you I just said they go right to the political attacks right I mean it's like they don't even pause for you know as I say for a decent moment a decent interval before going to that and in fact it's I mean look Israel itself there are massive demonstrations including by people who are not uh who were pretty conservative or pretty much on the right in Israeli political scene uh critic izing this on Yahoo for not prioritizing getting the hostages back there are people defending Biden I guess said that this morning and just very Reef answer to a question there are people also and I'm weirdly I'm very anti Netanyahu but on this I I don't know what I think I mean maybe though at the end of the day Netanyahu is right you can't have an entire military operation hinge on you know uh not not doing certain things you really think you have to do for the safety of the country because of a threat to kill hostages so I it just I mean harsh as that is to say so I really don't know yeah uh maybe Les and everybody could take from it the thing that got me a little emotional over the weekend was uh I guess Luke Bernard post posted a picture of of hsh Goldberg's Goldberg Poland's bedroom and uh he had in there a uh a painting I guess um that says Jerusalem is everyone's and then has it in Hebrew and in Arabic and it feels like that is the model that everybody should be looking towards um any other uh final thoughts bill from the weekend any other takeaways no people should enjoy the rest of they're non- laboring Labor Day assuming they're not not laboring and um I guess what nine weeks to go in this election it's unbelievable I cannot believe we're at Labor Day 2024 um we uh will be back tomorrow we've got uh we got a double header we've got Mona chair Mona cheron wrote this amazing piece called what are we conserving exactly I don't know if that was exactly the headline but that was the sense of it what are conservatives conserving what are we conserving it was wonderful I want to talk to her about that we've also got Senator Brian shots it's going to be a good episode enjoy your labor day I hope everyone had a wonderful weekend I hope your Sunday night was a little bit better than mine was it was fine we had Fellowship bill you know I had friends you're putting out a brave front here Tim I'm impressed I I was waiting for the text this morning you know can't do the show this morning I you have to put it off for you know a few days here but but you're playing you're you're in you're stiff upper lip is the British used to say I can't spin it it was a brutal loss though we hun people over it was lovely everyone was having a good time the bourbon was flowing we were chatting and then you know anyway sometimes sometimes it just doesn't go out the way you want um Bill Crystal we'll we'll see you back here next Monday everybody else will see you tomorrow hope you had a wonderful weekend peace 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