Identifying the Next Breakout WR1s | Wide Receivers with MASSIVE Upside (2024 Fantasy Football)

Introduction which wide receivers can we take to the Moon we're going to find out wide receiver 3es to wide receiver ones oh yes my friends the Fantasy Fest rolls on but not with Joe not with worm it's Welsh I am here for you guys enjoy by the Undertaker and my extra point co-host it is Andrew Ericson and one of the most multi veratile rankers in the industry Scott panowski from fantasy Yahoo fantasy sports baseball football he does it all gentlemen I would both let you talk and grandio say wonderful things about me but if I waste any time the chat will yell at me so we're not going to do that we're going to get right to the content and Mr Scott panowski we are going to start with you we need to take wide receivers to the Moon you my friend are going to take us with your first wide receiver three or further beyond that can get us there we're looking at it's a theme a Packers Jayden Reed wide receiver Mr panowski so talk to us about Jaden Reed yeah right right in time with the Jaden Reed fade that was about like seven minutes ago or whatever it is I get it there's a lot of talent here there's there's a talented running back there's a bunch of talented receivers there's even tight ends we want to draft but I I trust Matt lefur I think Matt lefur is the best coach coordinator playay CL on the NFL who isn't treated as royalty I remember some people I think Bill Simmons was saying in October is Matt lefair gonna get fired and I want to like drive off the road start screaming of course that Matt lefair is not going to get fired and the previous segment they were talking about D Brown and Rayvon I forget who were saying the point but I about touchdowns are fickle and I get it but touchdowns are also a function of design and Jaden Reed he won't have if you're gonna be a snaps count guy he's maybe gonna scare you away but when he's on the field he gets snaps and he gets manufactured snaps and he gets plays that are designed to be Jen Reed touchdown it's not like he was the guy we landed on but this play is designed for Jaden Reed to beat a good matchup so so when there's blood in the streets when there's a nebulous situation that provides the biggest room for profit Jaden Reed is currently the wide receiver 37 in Yahoo drafts so you know could could he be a flop could he be the wrong answer here I get it but I also think there's a plausible path for him to be a top 12 fantasy receiver and as everybody can see he's got an ADP wide receiver 36 his ECR is 37 a couple things I'm just going to throw out to you obviously you guys all know there's a lot of weapons there's a lot of mouths to feed but there also with just like you know some inconsistencies five or more targets he received 12 times last year six of those games Jaden Reed failed to go over 50 yards and you have all the mouths that are going to be fed more now in the positive side his final four games played uh he had 30 targets and went over 50 yards three times while also scoring three touchdowns so the back half of the Year got a little bit more consistent we know there's so many Here Andrew Ericson Jaden Reed Green Bay Packers theme if there wasn't a if the theme wasn't uh the Washington commanders players being values into this Fantasy Fest it's Green Bay wide receivers are the to of the town where are you at on Jaden Reed and does he actually have wide receiver one upside one of my number one rules I'm going to release in my perfect Fantasy Football draft strategy guide later this week is leave your draft with the Packers wide receiver because I want to buy into this offense we are throwing ourselves to draft as many Texans wide receivers as possible whatever the price we don't care it doesn't matter because the Texans are this great offense ascending aren't the Packers all those things too Jordan love did it in his first year as a starter he threw more touchdowns than than CJ stra did second to only Dak Prescott why can't Jordan love continue to be good we love all these pieces here so yes I get Reed is kind of a victim of circumstance because he's the number one on the Packers and you can get so much of these other guys later uh you can draft as many as you want like why why are we against he's wide receiver 30 6 and 37 he's going behind every single Texas receiver why is tank Dell so much better than Jaden Reed and again you have to pay the price because of the Texans and the sexy new toy but Jaden re I think is fine at his ADP again it's not the best price because value based on the other Packers receivers but what if him and Watson had flopped would that make Jaden Reed that much better of a pick I I think that the value is fine here and even though he is the most expensive Packers receiver I I just want Packers wide receivers on my fantasy team so answer answer me this okay me this Jordan Reed I'm sorry uh J Jordan love Jordan love L of Jays two yeah it's like like 9021 over here it's like the the Anaheim Angels lineup which like everybody has you Brandon Walsh Brandon Walsh all the same guy okay so Jordan love breaks out second half and now is is kind of a fantasy darling actually one of my favorite quarterback targets around quarterback nine quarterback 10 Deep you can do well at any quarterback price point but he breaks out in the second half Jaden Reed scores seven touchdowns in the final eight G and I get we're smart we understand you know love's not going to keep this touchdown rate and you know Reed we want to penalize him because he scored touchdowns why why can't he be seven touchdowns in Eight Games why can't he rest of like I don't know five touchdowns in eight games you have scor 10 in a full season why should we say oh this is a play that worked a player that worked a person who was scoring touchdowns on the regular let's just hold that against them and the ADP is so cheap and I'm going to cheat here this is total cheating I know we're looking for wide receiver 3es wide receiver one upside but if you take Jaden Reed and all he is is just a startable wide receiver two for you or a high-end three you're gon to make a profit the market is confused here it shouldn't be you're going to get your ADP price or a little bit of profit on Jaden Reed with the possibility of him blowing up that's good enough for me I think the most interesting thing about this too Eric and what Erikson said was that Jaden Reed is cheaper than every single one of the Texans wide receivers which is mindblowing Jaden Reed's also really fascinated as a 49 year fan he kind of can play a Debo heer think you comfort if weren potential one wide receivers and the only push back I might have is what I mentioned at the very beginning or right after Scott talk that you know he has these huge big massive upside weeks but then he has some down weeks the the in the thing I will say about Jaden R he might be the one constant even though you could look at Romeo dobs being that he might be the constant to get the targets where you have these varying big games that are moving around other George Pickens players now Andrew Erikson you have a wide receiver three that can get to wide receiver one and this guy has the opposite issue there's nobody else there's no other wide receivers to deal with George Pickins wide receiver one for George Pickins I know you would love to have said Brandon auk if he was traded but he wasn't so let's talk about George Pickins wide receiver 30 uh 29 on the ECR and 27 as far as ADP goes well let me just check xks make sure that bruk has not been traded yet to the Steelers refreshed okay we're good George picking still can be a wide receiver like that so for me Pickins is one of these breakout wide receivers entering year three that we're seeing so many of these guys be drafted in round two round three at that turn and why can't pick it what does he have not in his profile besides the fact that it's a run heavy offense that is holding him back we saw him flash wide receiver one potential twice last year during the beginning of the season for first five weeks when Deontay Johnson was sideline with the injury he's averaging nearly 80 receiving yards per game and then we saw at the back half of the season when they benched Kenny picket and they went with Mason Rudolph again 24% Target share 45% aard share nearly 15 fantasy points per game that's backend fantasy wide receiver one numbers nearly 100 receiving yards per game he's shown that when he has competent quarterback play he can be a wide receiver one when he's getting the volume so what happened in the offseason they got rid of his main target competition and they threw everything they could to upgrade the quarterback position so to me he just looks like a such a smash pick where he goes because yes is the risk of course Arthur Smith is the offensive coordinator we've done this song and dance before it was awful in Atlanta but he was the head coach there now he's just the offensive coordinator so with Mike tomman kind of still calling shots for personnel I think that it's GNA work better in Smith's favor but besides that that's baked into his ADP he's wide receiver 30 so it's you have that RIS but you have all that upside with Pickins in that round five range that I think his upside is similar to a lot of guys that go in round two so that's why I like George picking so much as a wide receiver three with wide receiver one potential because we're drafting a lot of w guys with wide receiver one potential as basically wide receiver ones yeah and you know an interesting thing too of wide receivers with a hundred or more targets you had uh Brandon iuk and Nico Collins that average more yards per Target number three was George Pickin and that's a pretty good company to be in but he also suffers a tiny bit from that Jaden Reed thing I was talking about Pickins had four finishes inside the top 12 of wide receivers in half PPR while having 10 finishes outside the top 40 now obviously there's no Deontay Johnson in that by the way only one finish as a wide receiver 23 in that period of time so it was kind of like you know black or white it was there was no real gray area uh Mr panowski what do you think do you think George Pickins has the upside to get that classic top end Steeler Target wide receiver and be a number one I'm torn Here Andrew made a lot of good points and George Pickins you take him it's a bet on Talent it's a bet on Career Arc it's a bet on more targets with Johnson gone but I still have PTSD from Arthur Smith and I think the Steelers are set up to play really good defense to run the ball to win think of every Steelers Ravens game where it's like at the same 17 13 19 16 Rock fight it always is I think the Steelers are going to try to play 17 of those games and although it's nice that pickets gone for one thing nobody wanted to say Pickin and picket over and over again they wanted to upgrade the quarterback room what they got is whatever's left left of Russell Wilson and whatever is emerging from Justin field so I think we'll be a great fantasy player at some point this year but it won't be necessarily from his arm because he's a great Runner the Konami Code and all that so I I like the bet on talent I like the bet on Career Arc I don't trust the coordinator and all those percentages and Target shares and something it's gonna be he's gonna have the biggest piece of a very small it's one of those gas station little pies that you're getting we're not getting the Thanksgiving pie with the Steelers we're getting the gas station pie so I view him a lot of times I talk about green light yellow light and red light players I would love to be green light on George Pickins he's just a yellow light for me still willing to pick him I'm afraid when he goes to one of my rivals but there's obviously a lot of things that make me a little bit nervous too I think the offense in general the quarterback play who's going to be quarterback uh the new you know scheming Arthur Smith what is that going to look like is he just going to be I mean there there's a decent likelihood he might just be the same receiver 71 uh catches a thousand yards just because they're not really throwing the ball uh Mr Scott Calvin Ridley panowski we are going to go to your second wide receiver three with wide receiver one up upside and we're going to Tennessee and I got a stat for you after but talk to us about Calvin Ridley and why he can be a wide receiver one that we've known in the past everyone's mad this year it was mentioned earlier in the Fantasy Fest everybody is making him pay because he's got an ECR of 36 and an 80P of 32 but right now he is the number one for Tennessee how and why is he gonna be a wide receiver one yeah he could be I I think his year in Jacksonville was better than we we thought it was just there was a big gap in the middle and it wasn't the best of Trevor Lawrence Seasons so though I think he's a good guy to buy on the way back up and again very talented quarterback pull you can do well at any price point with Hopkins being the older receiver here he's hurt the callahans are coming in to save the day it's a bad defense I don't think will Lis it's too early to say what he is but I think he's just gonna go downfield and let it rip and and maybe kind of be the the good and the bad that we saw of jamus Winston a few years ago where it was fun for Fantasy it wasn't always fun if you were a fan of the Buccaneers I think this has a carnival potential and with Hopkins being older Hopkins being hurt I think really makes a lot of sense I also want to say this we both submitted three receivers beforehand the one guy I cut was courland Sutton and I like courtand Sutton more and more every week as it goes by I know again touchdown rate was UN you know unsustainably high but he's probably the only show in town sha pyton finally has his quarterback I want you to draft courland Sutton maybe he can't be a wide receiver one I think he'll be a wide receiver too back to Ridley he was a first round pick last year wasn't that bad it just the way this season unfolded everybody just kind of turned on him in the middle of the Season said okay Calvin really doesn't want to play football anymore and then he actually had a pretty good final third of the year I'm seeing 140 145 targets here in a team that's Pro after years of Tennessee being the same team that just ran the ball into the ground they don't have that Personnel I'm not really sure I want either one of their running backs I think will Levis might be like the Sam how this year where he's just throwing the ball 45 times a week Erikson one thing I want to present to you with Calvin Ridley 27 wide receivers last year had a thousand yards receiving Calvin Ridley had the second worst catch catch percentage of all 27 of those wide receivers at 57.6% do you know who number one was with the worst is it was it puka AA it is DeAndre Hopkins his new teammate with the worst 56.4% catch percentage so two of the worst catch percentage players together maybe it's the quarterback maybe it's the play that's the worry but Calvin Ridley we've seen the big big play especially when they're going to go want to go deep and the question even when Hopkins is back is Calvin going to be maybe solely that deep guy that this offense would run through which really would let him play this but what say you Calvin Ridley do you think there's wide receiver upside Erikson I do you know I talked about Calvin Ridley as one of my favorite bounceback wide receivers earlier in the Fantasy Fest so I am echoing everything Scott is talking about when it comes to Calvin Ridley the reason he is viewed as a bust from last year is because we got way out of control drafting a guy hadn't played football in like two years and this is what happens this is the post hype type of sleeper play again it sounds weird to call Calvin really a post type sleeper but that's exactly what he is everybody was throwing themselves to draft Calvin rley when the guy hadn't played football in such a long time and I mean when you look up his final stat line wasn't even really that bad but he ran horribly when it came to the drops especially seemed like all of his drops were in the end zone so I think Calvin Ridley in this offense that we're going to see throw the ball way more than any other Titans fans buckle up like the aerial attack is coming to Nashville so please enjoy all right well uh I want to remind everybody that we might answer some questions at the end so if you got any questions for these two guys make sure you do it but first we want to tell you about the fantasy pros championship at ffpc oh yes my friends it is time and your opportunity to win $1 million a first place prize it's the world's largest online season long tournament fantasy pros Championship drafts fast and slow drafts are live right now and guess what you could even go up against some of your fantasy pros people like Erikson and myself as a matter of fact I think it's August 28th we've got back-to-back drafts you could be playing against us and tons more $350 entry free no joke but it's a $1 million prize but you go to fantasypros.com ffpc and use promo code fantasy pros when you sign up you get $25 off of your first entry you can use that to go up against Erikson or myself do it today the fantasy pros online Championship over at ffpc promo code fantasy pros do it today my friends all right let's get in to some more of these bad boys let's Rashee Rice talk about some more top end wide receivers and Erikson we're GNA go back to you and we're going to go with a wide receiver that has had just some controversy and I don't and I believe if that controversy wasn't there we would be talking probably easily about like wide receiver two all season long but I think people are worried about some of that suspension in general and we're talking about Rashi rice he has got an ECR of 32 and an ADP of 35 that baby is rising as people are just kind of coming to terms with hey you know what we might not have anything come down but what say you ericon obviously I think the the talent is there but you have to factor in in some capacity if there is a suspension in play are you not no I'm not I have rice as my wide receiver 22 so I am I'm drafting him has a wide receiver two that I think could be a wide receiver one because again with rice the reason his ADP is so low is because a lot of these rankings especially on some of these home sites where you're drafting Yahoo ESPN CBS a lot of those haven't really been updated reflected that his court date is December 9th that is way long into the season and what the Chiefs can do is oh we're just going to appeal it and then it'll be push it off to 20125 Alvin chra didn't get suspended till the entire season after he committed one of his penalties but that end making him get suspended for three games so the Chiefs have no information they've heard nothing every time they ask Andy Reid about rashy rice they're like I don't know I haven't heard anything and what's rice doing just continuing to ball out and Maris Brown is no longer going to be part of the game plan because he's been hurt so he's missing all of training camp he's a new piece at the offense anyway so when you look at the way this offense is now set up who's going to be eating up all those underneath targets it's Rashi rice even if in that same role as he was last year again the a dots not sexy but oh he's going to catch six balls every single week and beond the highest scoring offense in the NFL that throws the ball more than any other offense sign me up wide receiver 35 ADP it's it's like not even about just rice and the things I could sell about him being in the offense and how he broke out as a rookie his price is just wrong and you should draft him you should draft him round ahead of ADP in every single one of your drafts like I said a couple weeks ago rashy rice is the easiest click in fantasy football and it aged well because Mary BR ended up getting hurt so it worked out in my favor and Rashi rice didn't get suspended during that time but I still right now think at your home leagues fine where Rashi Rice's ADP because I guarantee it's way too low last year he ended the year with seven straight games of five or more receptions and in that period of time he finished as a wide receiver one three times and only one of those did he not at least become a wide receiver three so some consistency in there and you've got brown out of there Scott what do you think about Rashi rice in this low ECR ADP yeah we're in major agreement Here Andrew and I the Chiefs this was one of the worst read offens is in a year that somehow they won the Super Bowl but who got in the circle of trust in the second half of the year it was Rashid rice and Isaiah beo who's another guy who I keep drafting I got rice in the fourth round at the fantasy football Expo last weekend no he's not sexy he's had like a Portman's am man R st brown right you don't think a St Brown threatening the defenses with intermediate and deep routes he's just he lives to have that you know nine for 102 stat line and rice is going to be a lot of that and the maybe the most important thing that that Andrew mentions they can kick the can down the road with the suspension I don't I'm not sure that Rice will get suspended at all and even if he does it almost certainly sounds like a 2025 thing so you're getting a discount for that he's been mispriced all summer and again at at time some of that ADP is baked in because we didn't know I think things are a lot more clearer now that there's nothing to worry about there's been an injury with brown I know Brown is sexy because he runs steep routes and worthy of course is an exciting prospect who comes in but the Chiefs may take their time with worthy they took their time with rice last year when he was screaming for a bigger role I'm going to emphatically say with Andrew Ericson I want you to Target Rashid rice because the market has not fixed his price all right you guys both have one left and I am going to just let each of you hit yours and then we'll see if we can get just a couple questions in so let's go Jaxon Smith-Njigba over to you Mr Scott panowski your final one here is Jackson Smith and jiga who has got quite a lower uh ADP and ECR ECR 38 ADP 45 but that wide receiver one upside is there you know and interestingly enough he didn't have a ton of like big Target games he's only targeted seven or more times four times last year but lockit had that 10 times so I think the key here no pun intended on the lockit is that Jackson Smith and jiga and Tyler Lockett have to kind of switch those roles and I think you can you know just unleash for Jackson Smith and jiga but talk to us about jsn yeah at some point that's going to happen to lock it into a age 32 season it's the second season for GSN I can't believe every Scout was wrong on this guy right I think a year ago Brian Hartline I want to say the wide receiver coach at OSU thought jsn might have been the best of that group of the Chris LA and and Garrett Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr class and that sounds silly right now but the point is that jsn can play battled injuries his first year we've been spoiled by rookie receivers being plug inpl in recent seasons for years that wasn't the case Ryan grub comes in did wonderful things with the Washington offense he stays in the general area Seattle's offensive line collapsed in the first week of last season I'm willing to give almost this entire offens of Mulligan jsn is a good football player he had a bad run out last year the line got brok broken right away he they didn't throw him in the deep end of the pool there's so much room for growth here I can't believe that everybody who loved this guy a year ago is all of a sudden wrong he's kind of like the Kyle pits of wide receivers oh that's a that's a good comp I like Tank Dell that all right uh Andrew you're gonna finish us out here with your final wide receiver with that wide receiver upside and I wouldn't say you call talk smack about him a little bit earlier but you used him as an example of why someone else can be great how is tank Dell going to be a number one wide receiver when all those other great wide receivers are out there ECR 31 ADP of 29 we see Welsh it comes down to one simple principle because I don't know who's going to score the most touchdowns I don't know who's going to get the most targets don't know who's going to play in 12 Personnel Yad y y I do know this who loves tank Dell CJ stra who's the quarterback of the Houston Texans CJ strad that's where I'm pushing my chips in because when we saw tank Dell immediately hit the field last year as a rookie after a uber productive career at the college level despite being undersized all he did was ball out from the get C with CJ St as his quarterback again the last four games he played healthy alongside ni Collins tank Dell outgained niiko Collins in the eight games they played together their production was identical I get niiko Collins has that alpha build he got paid and yeah I understand why he's the first guy going off the board but it's still a value game here and what if we come after week one tank leads the team in targets well what happens then oh well tank is going to be valued higher than nikic Collins even though they are playing the Colts and niic Collins is probably going to get at least 150 yards I got the clown costume ready to go for week two on the trade show cannot wait for it but for right now I have to draft the Texans receiver I can't leave a draft where man this offense could be so good for the passing game and if I'm gonna fade Nico that means I have to be aggressive at least targeting guys like Stefan Diggs and then tank Dell because he's the cheapest so for me again it's hard to parse through the targets and the touchdowns but for me it's like tank Dell brok out as a rookie his quarterback absolutely loves him and if they hadn't added these other weapons we'd have less question marks about him in this offense so for me TK Dell that's why I like him at his value as a wide receiver three that I think as wide receiver one upside attached to CJ stra stra just just love him he actually pitched for them to draft Dell I mean think about that I mean CJ strout I I will listen to just talk all day long about football he is just like the most fun he just just pitching for everybody by the way we only need the nose Ericson we don't need like the whole thing like if you want to do makeup and stuff I mean it let's it depends on how many yards Nico Collins gets against the colt secondary that's I think I'm on I think I'm on three shows with you this year so I'll hold you to it buddy don't worry about Q&A it uh just a couple quick questions before we get out of here uh we have got Brandon says do you trust Deontay Johnson with Bryce young or Calvin Ridley with Levis to me it's Deontay and it isn't close uh puski let's go to you when we're talking about Calvin what do you say there deont with Bryce or Calvin with Will Levis yeah I think your hit rate's going to be higher with Deontay Johnson the reason why I'm just willing to follow Dave Canalis into a burning building he his fingerprints were all over the Gino Smith Renaissance two years ago and then he turned Baker Mayfield from a punch line into a pretty good quarterback last year I'm curious to see what happens to Tampa Bay without Canalis obviously Bryce young is undersized for the position he can't see some of those over the-mill throws but I I just at this point Dave Canales and 11 random dudes I think he can make them into a credible offense and Deontay Johnson is obviously a heck of a route Runner I like that uh Erikson we got a question here in a superflex dynasty what do you think about Pacho as an rb1 I like it I mean we don't know who their rb2 is in this offense could be Edwards slair generic Prince a fullback that they just signed from rugby we don't know they have plenty of options but Isaiah pko seems like the guy and if he's playing this High powerered offense again the only thing question marks are well does he see a lot of Red Zone usage like that's really the biggest question mark that could be you know his Achilles heel per se but when it comes to rushing when it comes to him being efficient he's going to be both of those uh good one this is this is the best question of all these are those great keeper questions would you rather have beon at one two or Michael Pitman at the nine2 is there more value in Pitman to justify not taking you know some I mean I think Deo has uh beon at the number one spot Scott what do you think about that massive value with Pitman or just go with the best guy man I I'm willing to throw value into the shredder if we're talking about an Elite Talent but you're paying sticker on bejan I I have to go Pitman I'd be afraid it would blow up in my face I would try to trade IID try to draft Robinson the first round if I could I don't know where your draft capital is here's the thing here's the take I want you to take you're asking the right question it's okay your Keepers don't always have to be oh I'm making 10 cents here and 15 cents here and 20 cents here sometimes just something to be said for paying a lot for a quote unquote sure thing look at that Atlanta schedule Falcons are going to win 11 games I'm even sure they that great but they have a unbelievable that wor sharp schedule grid I mean the Falcons are on their own island with that they're on the they're on Moon everybody else is on Earth so I want you to get bejan Robinson shares here I would take Pitman but it would make me a little bit nervous Erikson are you gonna Nickel in dime if you will in this scenario no I'm think I'm going with bejon because I think that you can find Value elsewhere but you're not gonna find bejon so that's the way I would look at it I have no problem with that yeah I I hope and but in the previous question asked about Peko I want you to be overweight on Peko this year it's harder to be overweight on bean because you you're walking your draft drafting ninth you can't get Robinson but I hope everybody out there is playing in multiple leagues you got to have Robinson your portfolio I look everybody loves the guy but he's like if you're in a salary cap draft you're you're spending extra money on bej Robinson Closing look at look at this dude over here panowski is the best literally has to has to make sure you guys know he's one of my favorites did baseball with him this year Scott I am glad to have done this show with you this year and going to be doing some inseason shows here on fantasy pros with Mr Scott panowski so make sure you follow him at Scott panowski