U.S. Presidential Election & Impact on S. Korea

[Music] hello and welcome to withen the frame I'm hin ha US vice president kamla Harris delivered a historic nomination acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention last week officially opening up 70 days of heated race for the White House attention is now focused on who will take the lead with the momentum from the DNC and endorsement of Republican Nomine Donald Trump by independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr meanwhile here in Korea reports are pouring in about the potential impacts of a Harris or Trump presidency on the country's security and the economy on today's within the frame we look into the latest key developments in the US presidential race and explore their potential implic ations for South Korea for that Dr Peter K Lee research fellow at the Assan Institute for policy studies joins uh is here with us via Skype he's also a non-resident fellow at the US Study Center at University of Sydney it's so great to have you with us thanks for having me on and joining us from Washington DC is VOA correspondent Jessica Stone always a pleasure to have you with us great to be with you all right Jessica let's start off with you first let's do a replay of the Democratic National Convention give us your overall assessment of the big event and the highlights of course of Harris's acceptance speech well the DNC convention was really about introducing kamla Harris to Americans who don't know her outside of the vice presidency of uh establishing her biography of her personality of what has led her to this moment uh and so uh some of the highlights included uh the remarks of her husband uh and the repeated phrase a joyful Warrior um in terms of her convention speech she also used that to introduce herself to Americans who may not know her well uh she talked about her upbringing in her childhood in h California the daughter of an Indian American mother and a Jamaican born father uh and um the uh observations she had about race and class and uh the things that are important to her as a politician uh she talked about um she she talked about her work as a prosecutor as Attorney General of the State of California and now as vice president and she made an appeal to Republicans who denied uh to Republicans who denied that uh Trump lost the 2020 election uh in in to Biden really uh trying to get additional votes to cross uh the aisle to her that includes Independence and Republicans who are disenfranchised with the way Trump reacted to his election loss um and she told them that she'd be a president for all of them which is something we also heard from Barack Obama years ago uh a real effort to reach across the aisle she also uh weighed a little bit into to foreign policy we haven't seen her talk a lot about her own views on foreign policy she did uh say that she's going to uh as president if elected defend us us alliances as well as abortion access um but other than that political analysts really say that she didn't have a lot of policy in Her speech and for that matter they also say Trump hasn't had a lot of policy in his speeches uh he for his part meaning Donald Trump criticizing Kamala speech for complaining too much about the national conditions despite being in office herself for the last three and a half years um but all in all we see a real bump in terms of fundraising for the Harris Waltz campaign 500 million raised uh just before her speech and at last count $540 million raised towards her campaign and her campaign chair saying much of it is coming from new donors and from younger donors both of whom our constituencies that this campaign is looking for so the DNC led to a massive fundraising for the Democratic party you said 540 million that's a lot and Harris saw a polling boost according to many reports and we'll talk about that later on but before that Dr Lee the next major event is undoubtedly the first presidential TV debate between Harris and Trump set for September 10th what would be some Central issues of debate and what key aspects should South Korea pay attention to Joan I mean I think just picking up on what Jessica was mentioning there I mean if the DNC National Convention was a chance for vice president Harris U to introduce herself to the American public and to the world I think this next um first debate with former president Trump is going to be a way to test um her values her principles her policy agenda so as Jessica was mentioning you know we know really know a great deal about what um Harris thinks personally about the Legacy um with President Biden over the last three and a half years and so I think really it's going to be a challenge to to find out you know how much of what has been achieved um is part of her Legacy that she wants to continue and what she wants to forge on her own so I think from a Korean perspective at least you know it's going to be how both candidates um in this debate talk about the role of alliances but also the great challenges that they face right so this idea of the access of authoritarian regimes you know China Russia but also North Korea and Iran and so really what role um the United States um sees allies playing in terms of that great contest I think from a Korean perspective more specifically it's going to be the role of extended nuclear deterrence and really the role that um the Biden Administration has played in in empowering us allies to take greater steps for their own security so we these things like orus the Washington Declaration of South Korea really these are you know pretty unprecedented steps that the Biden Administration took so we're curious to see how both candidates want to go forward in that area the TV debate will certainly be another historic pivot point in the US presidential race and it'll be quite interesting to watch how Trump will take on Harris who's now enoy surging momentum now Jessica Independent presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr has suspended his campaign throwing his support behind Trump is the endorsement emerging as a key factor likely to significantly impact the race well I think the key to your question there is significantly right and we just don't have all of the data yet in terms of the polling on what this could mean to the Trump campaign but as you mentioned over the weekend we saw Robert F Kennedy uh Jr basically leaving his own campaign uh under the uh impression that his own polling was telling him that he was going to be taking votes from Trump and giving them to Harris if he stayed in the race so he got it he got out he endorsed Trump uh and initially polls were showing that um he would uh he would pull votes away from Biden and then uh later on as I said going uh really that his candidacy was going to hurt uh Trump more than Democrats so he pulled out uh looked for that endorsement uh possibly looking for a position in a trump uh Administration uh political observers uh in terms of the the impact though really looking at the impact not just on the national race of him pulling out but on critical swing States in particular uh a cook political report survey showing that voters that found that excuse me of those voters in swing States finding that Kennedy was losing ground with some of them so it's not really clear yet where they're going to land and there are some political observers who say that his voters might not vote at all they might be um really not looking for the sort of um choice between uh these two candidates of trump and Harris or Trump and uh Biden part two uh others though looking to see for some kind of short-term bump for Trump again the polling data not all in and so we are looking for what that could mean uh for the Trump campaign he certainly uh does have some common policy positions with Kennedy especially when it comes to pulling out of global Wars and rebuilding the middle class because it's such a tight race uh his endorsement could matter for both Donald Trump and kamla Harris in especially in swing States as you pointed out but we don't know for sure how much of an impact it'll have now Jessica you mentioned that we need more polls more poll results more data uh to get a clear picture but give us an an an analysis of the latest polls and what other variables other than the TV debate are expected to shape the election landscape going forward so you mentioned it's a very close race and that's very evident in the polls we are seeing uh by Nate silver who's one of the leading influential political observers in the United States a a gap of about four points Harris pulling ahead of trump in a in a national average of polls at Four Points Washington Post just saying a few hours ago that the spread is two points so these are well within uh margins of error and it is there's no question that both campaigns are looking at this as a very tight race and that of course means that it's going to come down to uh where it comes down to and we talk about this often those swing States those eight or nine uh States uh where the electorate is not uh in the tank for one party or another a lot of them are in the midwest some of them are in the Southeast including Georgia and that's where we're going to find both of the these campaigns campaigning heavily hitting these states hard uh we're going to see Trump advance in Michigan this week we're going to see Harrison Waltz in Georgia and again these are the states where the voters and the way that they decide to vote in November are really going to determine the outcome we know uh that so far Harris in particular is pulling better than Trump uh the 18-34 demographic Black and Hispanic voters Trump leading with white and older voters so it's also going to really come down to a turnout game can the um the get out to vote effort for both of these campaigns can they get their voters to the polls it's typically easier to get older voters to the polls uh than it is younger voters and so that's going to be a factor and what the outcome is who is voting and who are they voting for but that outcome that turn out the vote really key especially for Harris so voter turnout is of course uh another very crucial point in elections now let's look into the foreign policy directions of Harris and Trump Dr Lee you mentioned that we are yet to find out a lot more about Harris's foreign policy directions but can you give us a rough outline of the two candidates respective foreign policy approaches with a focus on their North Korea policy sure I mean I think when it comes to North Korea I mean US foreign policy has really been at an impass for the last six to seven years years since about 2018 when President Trump last met Kim Jong-un in Hanoi and so the US you know on both sides has been in a holding pattern in terms of what to do with North Korea and the efforts at denuclearization so I think in that sense it's really a new opportunity come this um November election to reset and to try new approaches so we've seen that um you know vice president Paris has you know talked about how she will stand up to what she calls dictators um such as Kim jongan meanwhile you had former president Trump mentioning that you know he got along well with Kim J that you know he can handle these kinds of big issues and deal with strong men like North Korea so I think you know you see the difference of approaches that they might take but I think really it's important to keep in mind that North Korea is not the priority issue for either candidate at the moment in terms of foreign policy so it's going to be you know dealing with the war in Ukraine it's going to be dealing with the war in Gaza going be dealing with China um and it's really the question of where North Korea fits into those larger puzzles and I think you know this idea of an axis of Evil and AIS of authoritarian regimes that is increasingly talked about in America you know North Korea support for Russia those will be the key variables that determine how the United States approaches the North Korean question and it's really I think situation contingent you know so much has changed in the last year or two in terms of North Korea's perceived threat to the United States I think you know there's much more to be um seeing in the coming weeks and months right it it's undeniable that Washington has been uh placing North Korea in the back burner for quite some time now and what will matter a lot more the bigger question would be how they would deal with uh other countries like Russia and China in the region now Dr Lee South Korea is also paying Keen attention to the effects of America's so-called poly economy how Harrison Trump's presidency would impact Korean companies and the overall economy what are your biggest hopes and concerns so I mean you know the concern is is that this is one area where there is great bipar and consensus in America it seems this idea of you an economic statecraft you know the Revival of American manufacturing you know and an American First in very different shades you know whether it's you know build back better you know whether it's America first you know jobs for American workers so I think it's an area that you know has become an easy um target for you know economically Advanced allies such as South Korea but also Japan Russia some of the northern European countries and so something where you know there's been you know growing Byars and efforts not only within the executive branch in the United States but also within Congress so both the house and the Senate have pushed you know you know efforts to strengthen bamerican quotas and other areas of industrial policy and that's really making a comeback right now and I think that has effects not only economically but also into the defense space as well in terms of how the us is going to work with some of its you know really important allies like Korea and Japan I think for the hope for Korea is that you know as Jessica was mentioned some of those really key swing States you know Korean firms have made you know record investments into some of these areas particularly in the Southeast such as georia and so you know President Biden used to talk all about how he had attracted hundred billion dollars of Korean corporate investment in the three years that he had been president so in that sense I think you know the Korean companies have tried to demonstrate that they can deliver a win-win outcome with us workers with us voters and so I think there's an opportunity there to to build on that success without it becoming a zero sum equation I think from whoever wins the election now to the Middle East Jessica US Secretary of State Anthony blinkin has concluded his trip to the region without much progress in Gaza ceasefire talks what do we know so far about Washington's plans for gaza's future and how does Harris's stance on the Israel Hamas conflict compare to trumps well I think we see uh increasingly that there's a constituency in the Democratic party and particularly in younger voters uh that is very much shaped by this conflict uh for example at the convention we saw about 270 delegates sign a petition uh asking uh the Democratic party to take a different position on this conflict and make Aid to Israel contingent on certain agreements regarding human rights uh in her own convention speech she did uh basically take the same position as Joe Biden has in terms of supporting Israel's right to defense uh and what's more the party continued their position ignoring uh that petition that I mentioned before and and and instead uh continuing the the position that Israel has a right to self-defense that a ceasefire in exchange for the hostages is a priority and that they also back a two-state solution the DNC did not add any language conditioning support Military Support to Israel in any way uh in terms of Donald Trump's approach um we largely have a promise that he's going to end wars in the Ukraine and and and Gaza without a lot of detail uh and some of that is is you know sort of the idea that he says well these things wouldn't happen on my watch uh again that's a claim that doesn't have a lot of explanation uh from his Vantage Point uh remember that he uh on July 26 did meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the United States asking him quote to get the war over with he says he will give Israel the support it needs to win the war in Gaza he claims that vice president Harris by demanding a ceasefire is tying Israel's hands and he also says he will arrest and Deport these Pro Palestinian supporters if he becomes president so uh somewhat of a different approach between these two uh but largely still still taking the traditional us position that the US is a key Ally of Israel's while we see Harris certainly giving more attention to the plate of the Gins of of those who have been displaced and killed uh and uh who are now affected by the food shortages and the violence that's going on there um but yet still maintaining uh the position that the US has had for quite some time with respect to Israel Dr Lee a group of top us politicians from both ends of the political aisle are expected to visit Saul early next month what would be the purpose of their visit and what sort of outcome do you anticipate so there have been reports that um a senate delegation in Korea as part of sort of trilateral talks with the US Japan and Korea in terms of Economic Security cooperation going back to our discussion earlier but I really think the purpose is sort of twofold it's to shore up the two bilateral alliances in Northeast Asia that the US has so with South Korea but also with Japan but also to keep that momentum going in terms of the US preference for trilateral and minilateral cooperation so the Biden Administration but also the first Trump Administration has gone very hard in terms of munilal cooperation so we think about the quad orcus and now Camp David um partnership these are areas where the US is very keen for its allies to work more closely together with each other as well as with the United States so I think this delegation is really visiting Northeast Asia to show that the US will stay committed regardless of who becomes the president um and it's also because it's Senate delegation with senators were not up for reelection um in this coming election it's to show that there will be continuity I think in the US commitment regardless of who wins the White House but also the Congress um on November 5 and we conclude our discussions on that note well the US election holds significant implications for South Korea affecting security the economy and much more so uh we'll be watching closely as developments unfold thank you so much Dr Lee for your presence with us today we appreciate it thank you and thank you Jessica as always for your perspectives great to see you and that brings us to the end of the show thank you for watching and be sure to tune in same time tomorrow to join our conversation goodbye for now [Music]