Steve Kornacki: How Harris and Trump are polling in states that could decide the election

Published: Sep 07, 2024 Duration: 00:03:28 Category: News & Politics

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AND WE HAVE MORE IN COMMON THAN WHAT SEPARATES US. >> FOR MORE ON WHERE THE RAZOR-TIGHT STANDS I AM JOINEDED BY NATIONAL POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT STEVE KORNACKI. STEVE, BREAK IT ALL DOWN FOR US. TWO DAYS UNTIL THE DEBATE. WHERE DO THINGS STAND? >> CRISTIN, TWO DAYS BEFORE THE DEBATE THIS IS WHAT YOU'RE LOOKING AT IN THE SEVEN CORE BATTLEGROUND STATES. YOU ARE SEEING RAZOR THIN CONTESTS AND YOU CAN SEE LESS THAN A POINT, LESS THAN A POINT, ONE POINT, SEVEN BATTLEGROUND STATES THAT WE THINK ARE LIKELY TO DECIDED ELECTORAL COLLEGE AND THE ROAD TO 270. TAKE A CLOSER LOOK HERE, AND THERE ARE A COUPLE OF THINGS WE WANT TO DRAW YOUR ATTENTION TO. FIRST, THERE'S ONE STATE HERE, WISCONSIN, WHERE THE MARGIN DOES SEEM LARGER THAN THE OTHERS AND PUT A PIN IN THAT BECAUSE WE'LL GET BACK TO THAT IN A SECOND. WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE CLOSE RACES PARTICULARLY IN THE SUNBELT STAYSES IT REFLECTS HOW THIS RACE HAS CHANGED A LITTLE BIT SINCE KAMALA HARRIS HAS REPLACED JOE BIDEN AS THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE. THIS IS THE DIVERSITY OF THE ELECTORATES IN THE SEVEN CORE BATTLEGROUND STATES, WHITE AND NON-WHITE. YOU CAN SEE NATIONALLY THIS IS WHAT THE ELECTORATE LOOKS LIKE. THESE THREE STATES, NEVADA, NORTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. YOU SEE THE SHARE OF THE ELECTORATE THAT'S WHITE IS LOWER IN THESE THREE STATES THAN IT IS NATIONALLY. THE SHARE OF THE ELECTORATE THAT IS NON-WHITE IS ACTUALLY HIGHER. ONE OF THE THINGS THAT HAS HAPPENED SINCE KAMALA HARRIS REPLACED JOE BIDEN IS THAT BIDEN HAD BEEN STRUGGLING RELATIVE TO HOW DEMOCRATS HISTORICALLY DO WITH HISPANIC VOTERS WITH BLACK VOTE E WITH NON-WHITE VOTERS. HARRIS HAS IMPROVED ON BIDEN'S STANDING WITH THOSE VOTERS. SHE'S NOT AT THE LEVELS THAT DEMOCRATS HAVE TYPICALLY RUN IN IN THE PAST, BUT SHE'S IMPROVED. SO WHEN WE JUST SHOWED YOU THOSE CLOSE MARGINS IF THESE STATES HERE. THAT'S THE SOURCE OF HARRIS' IMPROVEMENT. THESE STATES ARE LOOKING MORE PROMISING FOR HER THAN THEY WERE FOR JOE BIDEN, BUT AGAIN, SHE'S NOT AT THE LEVEL DEMOCRATS TYPICALLY GET WITH NON-WHITE VOTERS. THAT'S SOMETHING HER CAMPAIGN IS LOOKING AT TRYING TO BOOST AND TRYING TO IMPROVE. THE OTHER END OF IT, THOUGH, IS THIS. LOOK AT THE STATES, WISCONSIN, MICHIGAN AND PENNSYLVANIA WITH THE HIGHEST SHARES OF WHITE VOTERS. SPECIFICALLY HERE WE'LL LOOK AT BLUE COLLAR WHITE VOTERS. WHITE VOTERS WHO DON'T HAVE FOUR-YEAR DEGREES AND THE NATIONAL AVERAGE HERE 35%, LOOK WHERE WISCONSIN, MICHIGAN AND PENNSYLVANIA ARE IN THEIR ELECTORATES. THE KEY HERE IS REMEMBER, WE JUST SHOWED YOU THAT POLL WHICH HAD HARRIS UP 5.5 ON AVERAGE IN WISCONSIN. WISCONSIN HAS THE HIGHEST SHARE OF NONCOLLEGE WHITE VOTERS AND THESE WERE THE POLLS MISSED ON IN 2020, MISSED ON IN 2016. THEY UNDERCOUNTED, THE POLLS DID. TRUMP'S SUPPORT WITH BLUE COLLAR WHITE VOTERS. SO WHEN YOU SEE POLLS THIS FALL PARTICULARLY IN A STATE LIKE WISCONSIN, I THINK YOU PUT AN ASTERISK AFTER IT BECAUSE WE SAW BIG MISSIS THERE BEFORE AND THE QUESTION IS ARE WE SEEING MISSES THERE AGAIN? IS TRUMP BEING UNDERCOUNTED IN THOSE STATES? TWO DAYS BEFORE, KRISTEN, JUST TAKE A LOOK FROM A WALL STREET JOURNAL POLL WHERE THE TWO CANDIDATES STAND HERE IN TERMS OF THE PUBLIC'S VIEW. HARRIS WITH THE ADVANTAGE ON ABORTION IN 20 POINTS AND SHE'S MADE THIS A CENTERPIECE FOR A LONG TIME NOW. THE ECONOMY, IMMIGRATION, THE ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR AND THESE ARE ALL TRUMP

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