Expectations for Buffalo Bills edge rusher Von Miller in 2024, OL shuffle & Josh Allen’s mechanics

Intro it's time for herd mentality the weekly episode where you control the discussion today on locked on bills you are locked on bills your daily Buffalo Bills podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your team everyday what's up bills Mafia H Joe Welcome Marino author of go bills and Buffalo's run also the co-host of the lock on NFL scouting podcast and I'm your host of locked on bills want to thank you for making locked on bills your first listen every day and a big welcome and shout out to our every dayers you know who you are those of you who never miss a single episode I appreciate yall being here very very much I'd also like to invite you to subscribe or follow for free on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcast we're part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day today's episode is brought to You by FanDuel make every moment more as the playoffs wind down the Sports Stop sportsing like we want them to but this summer FanDuel is hooking up all customers would they boost or bonus daily that's right there's something for everyone every day all summer long just visit fel.com lockon to get started well folks welcome in we've got a bunch of great herd mentality items to get to a bunch of Von Miller stuff we'll start with that and get to a bunch of good stuff like I mentioned so let's do it the first one today comes from Nathan Nathan says V is all over socials angry posting about this upcoming season I know that you are low on expectations for this year but who does he have to be this season to make his presence worth his contract and to take snaps from epinesa and rouso can we still expect a ceiling even if it's far-fetched anywhere close to 70 to 80% of his pro career highs six sack quarterback pressures on 15% of total snaps I totally get the Expectations for Von Miller question but um if we're looking at this through the lens of him justifying his contract Von Miller is the 13th highest paid Edge rusher in the NFL if he's going to perform at a level can measure it with that he's got to be a dude and so setting expectations is very very difficult he's 35 years old and he was a disaster at 34 years old coming off of an ACL tear I have a very difficult time putting expectations on him I just don't know what to expect I think if he can be close to his former self that would be huge for this team you've heard me say all offseason long that my top concern is pass rush but you could literally tell me any outcome for Von Miller in 2024 and and I'd probably believe you he seems motivated he obviously has something to prove he's a prideful man that's had a great career that I'm sure would like to end on a high note and he sounds like he wants to play well he's got to play well but if he's gonna live up to his contract I we're talking about he's got to be one of the better pass rushers in the league not the best not miles Garrett or Max Crosby I'm not saying that but can he be on the level of an Alex High Smith that's kind of the ballpark that he's paid that would be nice that would be huge I think you could talk about the 2024 bills from a number of lenses but if that 2024 Buffalo Bills team gets Von Miller that's close to the Von Miller that we saw before the injury I think that would be Monumental for this football team Mike says I know Von Miller restructured his deal and bet on BET on himself this off season what kind of season does v need to have to stick around in 2025 it's a good question so Von Miller can be cut after this season and the bills could save some money they would accumulate $15.4 million in dead cap space but they would get eight and a half million in cap savings if they were to cut him in the off season and designate him as a post June 1st release like they did with travius white the bills would accumulate 6.4 million in dead cap in 2025 but they would get 17.5 million million in 2025 cap savings now that does come with a huge piece of information that you need to be aware of is if they do that it does mean you carry an additional $9 million dead cap hit in 2026 if they do it that way so you can if you can cut them and you can do it clean and be done with all of Von Miller after 2025 or you can do the post 61 release and you know you carry some dead cap into 2026 the reality is I mean if Von Miller is something like what we've seen in the past you're still going to have questions about him at 36 years old right being effective regardless of how good he is this year but you kind of feel like this is it for Von Miller and buffalo and I certainly hope that he does the things he came to Buffalo to do and that's helped this team win a Super Bowl so go do it Von and if if that if that's what happens if Von Miller's part of a Super Bowl winning team with the bills We're Not Gonna care not gonna care about anything after that but it would be cool we'll see I again my expectations for Von Miller are very very low I just don't know what to expect Robert says we've drafted in the first round the second round signed Von Miller no matter what we do the pass rush just hasn't been good enough we need rouso and EPA to step up big time I'm tired of seeing the opposing quarterback standing back there with five to six seconds to throw or escaping and running down the field field should the bills be adding more Blitz packages and schemes to get to the quarterback well the bills I mean sha mcder blitzed a fair amount last year right at 24% which is pretty close to the league average like middle of the- pack Blitz rate and he did that because of what you're talking about that there just was times where the organic pass rush when I say organic pass rush I mean rushing with four they just weren't they weren't getting there consistently and so you try to heat up that throw forced the ball to come out quicker than that quarterback wants it to and the results were mixed it's not like the bills blitzed a lot and that was very effective either and there's a trade off when you send pressure you lose defenders in coverage so it's kind of a pick your poison thing ideally and I think this is the goal of any defense is that you you're very good at getting that organic pressure with four rushers but here's the thing about the bills pass rush for as much as I talk about the concerns metric Al they were very good last year like excellent one of the best in the league had a pressure rate of 24.4% that's sixth best in the NFL they had 54 sacks that's the fourth most of any team in the NFL last year they had a sack rate of 88.9% third highest in the league I mean these metrics are awesome but I don't think it tells the story to me it's more how effective the rush is in high leverage situations and then especially in the playoffs against momes against burrow where's the pass rush I think it's been MIA and I think that spoiled Josh Allen's contributions in the playoffs I mean Josh Allen's unbelievable in the playoffs he always shows up his defense lets him down and I I when I talk defense and where it's good and bad I go right to the front I think that's where defensive football is one up front dudes up front guys that can beat blocks wreak havoc make tackles behind the line of scrimmage heat up the quarterback to me that's what it's about I just don't see the bills doing a good enough job of that in the playoffs how can that be different this year you see guys like even like Leonard Floyd how good of a season did he have he had a great season where was he in the playoffs did he have any impact Ed Oliver great season right awesome big breakout where were you in the playoffs Bud these guys got to step in those moments and what's hard about this conversation is that you look at the the defensive line Personnel it's it's not like you see a bunch of additions you don't have any additions really I mean what draft pick in Javon Solomon couple new backup defensive tackles you're hoping that Von Miller can have a pulse you're hoping that rouso takes a step you're hoping that EPA takes a step and then you know Ed Oliver of course continues what he's doing but more clutch in big moments and then dayquan Jones dayquan Jones you know he's he's not a premier pass rusher but man was he so good rushing the passer earlier in the season so this is a big task for Bobby babit in his first year as a defensive coordinator Marcus West in his first year as a defensive line coach how can these guys be better in those big high leverage moments and there's also an element to coverage right coverage and pass rush when they're married up and they go hand inand that's when you're going to play your best defense but to me it's it's about the rush up front and I'm hoping that the bills can be really good at that this year although I have a hard time really talking myself into that being true because what are you relying on like I talked about Von Miller who knows epinesa I like him right but is he more of a defensive end three like a high-end defensive end three rouso a really good player but is he ever going to be like the big time sack artist we'll find out all right folks we got more to talk about outside a defensive line in Von Miller we're going to talk about the offensive line Shuffle Josh Allen's mechanics got a bunch to get to on the other side of it so be sure to stick with me I love sports I love them FanDuel so much I never want them to stop but as the playoffs wind down we we get fewer games and the sports aren't sportsing like I want them to but FanDuel lets me keep the sports going whenever I want all I have to do is open the app and dream up bets anytime that I'm in the mood and this summer FanDuel is hooking up all customers with but they boost or bonus daily that's right there's something for everyone every day all summer long you can get in on Major League Baseball I've had a lot of fun with golf props as well lately so check all that out head on over to fanduel.com lockon and make the most of your summer FanDuel official sports betting partner of Major League James Baseball all right folks the next one today comes from James James says offenses all he has a question about offense are we legitimately moving McGovern to Center and David Edwards to left guard or are we going to utilize Cedric vanran Granger at Center and keep McGovern at left guard my gut tells me we made so many new moves on the roster and we spent a quality Draft pick on Van pran for a centeron slot that we should use him that also gives us continuity at left guard and Edwards as the extra offensive line your thoughts now I think I think this is happening I think I think the bills going to play Conor mcgoverin at Center and they're going to play David Edwards at left guard I mean you've heard Conor McGovern speak very openly about how this is his natural position he can't wait to go back home this is part of the plan when they signed him it was the plan in Dallas when they drafted him but then the coaching staff changed over this is very there's all the momentum is pointing towards this and then you know David Edwards is a guy that of course brought value to the bills as a utility blocker but they gave him a a decent little contract and I would assume that's to be the starting left guard at least for this season so I do I do think this is gonna happen and chromer Aaron chromer does have time on task with David Edwards they spent a couple of years together with the Rams including chromer being part of the coaching staff when they drafted him so you know he has got a he's got a big hand in that but here's one thing that I will say don't label Cedric vanran Granger as a center only I can tell you that the team does not think that he's a center only Aaron chromer when he was with the Rams he played Austin blle at guard if you could play Austin ble at guard you can play anybody at guard and I'm talking four seasons over 1,800 snaps at guard Austin ble Austin ble 62 291 PBS with 30 and a qu inch Arms Van P Granger 64298 with 31 and 38 on the arm length so taller bigger and longer arms and the biggest thing about said van PR Granger is that he's a very powerful blocker you're that's what you're worried about at guard when you say a guy's a center only measurables is is typically part of that but bigger than that is that you just don't feel like that they have the anchor and the functional strength to consistently have guys stacked over top of them at gard and so you put them at Center and you mitigate that you're not concerned about that with said and again I'm telling you that the bills do not look at Van pran Granger as a center only but I do think that's the plan and can van pran Granger beat out David Edwards at left guard maybe maybe that's more of a 2025 thing but as I've said repeatedly I think he can be the khil Shakir of this draft class just got to let it play out a little bit next one here comes from Jason Jason says you've expressed excitement in Josh Allen refining his mechanics this off season you see a season like 2020 when he broke out and shut up the naysayers again I feel like another MVP caliber season is coming hopefully fingers cross lower interceptions as well love to know your thoughts I mean Josh Allen has finished in the top five in MVP voting in three of the last four years that that's the level of performance that quite honestly I expect from Josh Allen on a yearly basis and what's funny about the interceptions is that of course he had a career high in volume of 18 of interceptions with 18 but he also had a career low in turnover worthy play percentage he had 21 turnover worthy plays and 18 interceptions the guy just had no luck whatsoever with interceptions last year when he threw an interceptable pass they intercepted it every time so I think back to your question about like is this going to be an MVP caliber season for Josh Allen I think that the improved mechanics could absolutely be a factor in Josh Allen having a big-time season if it does actually lead to better ball placement better efficiency with the quick game you know that's going to help his stats be better how much of that though is offset by everything new around him I don't know I'm optimistic you've heard me talk about that quite a bit this offseason I like the vibe quite a bit right now but we'll see how it all comes together but my expectation for Josh Allen every year of his career is to be an MVP candidate he's told us that's the type of player he is and I want to see that year in and year out Jason asks what were your thoughts on dton concade as a Blocker in his rookie year how often did he line up inline versus split out do you think the bills will use him more as a traditional inline tight end as his career progresses and can he be an adequate or plus blocker for us in that role I think that DOL concade um as a blocker as a rookie I would label him as a high effort positional blocker you know he lacks the mass and power to be a consistent inline people mover but what he does do is he competes to get him his body in good positions and he works really hard so that's kind of who he is and and I think the fact that I could say that about him after watching him at Utah and having a similar thought is like good on you DOL con Kade for at least being what we saw in college against better competition I don't think he's ever going to be a plus blocker and quite honestly I don't really care that he ever is D kad's part of this team and we're excited about him because he can catch the football right the receiving profile is the exciting part here but as long as he's not a liability I think that's what's important as for his snap alignment last year on passing snaps dton concade was 20% in line 60% from the slot 18% wide on rundowns 58% in line 25% from the slot 177% wide so I think that gives you I mean the fact that they played him 58% of snaps on running Downs in line versus 20% of snaps in line on passing Downs suggests that they do have a level of confidence in him being able to function in in line but is he ever going to be amazing at it I don't think so we just need to him to be able to hold his head above water that's kind of what I'm looking for from Dalton can Cade the blocker all right folks coming up on the other side of it we're going to talk salary cap we're going to talk a little bit about trends of the league some luck we'll get into all that here on the other side of it so be sure to stick with me this episode is Sponsor sponsored by better help comparison is the thief of joy and it's easy to Envy other people's lives it might look like they have it all together on their Instagram but in reality they probably don't therapy can help you focus on what you want instead of what others have so you can start living your best life therapy is helpful for learning positive coping skills and how to set boundaries it empowers you to be the best version of yourself it's not just for people who have experienced major trauma stop comparing and start focusing with betterhelp visit betterhelp.com lockon today to get 10% off your first month that's betterhelp.com Viewer Question lockon all right folks welcome back in we got a few more to get to here today the next one comes from Thompson Thompson says my question is fairly basic but I'm wondering about salary cap flexibility I know teams need to be cap compliant by the start of the new league year but when and how do teams become over the cap by tens of millions of dollars what point of the offseason inseason do front offices make this happen and what three to four players really stand out to you would really stand out to you that would be Allin for the bills so here's the thing about being over the cap teams are never actually over the cap they are projected to be be over the cap at the start of the new year so when we talk about that we're referring to the current projected cap position at the start of the new league year based on how contracts are structured and then teams take that opportunity to become and maintain cap compliancy at all times so no team is ever over the salary cap what you're looking at is you're saying okay coming out of 2023 this is go back to last year and it's example coming out of 2023 the bills were projected to be over the salary cap at the start of the new league year by 50 million so that means they had to clear 50 $50 million in cap space which we saw what they did to get there they make all those moves knowing that okay when the clock strikes midnight on whatever day the new league year starts we have to be cap compliant and maintain cap compliancy so teams are never over the cap they're projected to be over the cap and they understand that there's a deadline to get that all taken care of so it's not like you become cap compliant and then all of a sudden throw a party right and sign all the players and spend all the money you have to be cap compliant at all times so it's we're talking projections and so you can look at it right now and say okay the Cap's going to be here your salaries are going to be here by the new league year you better get this figured out or else you're going to be in trouble but every team is always cap compliant we just we look at projections and understand what teams have to do to get themselves there the next one comes from Boris Boris says you have spoken on how some of the League's offenses slowly have been responding to two high shell types of defenses with more 12 personnel and jumbo run oriented offensive looks as a counter move bills are an example as are the Chiefs my question is that this is not picked up on for a majority of League observers and content creators do you have any idea why well I I don't I can't answer that question for other people um but I don't I just I guess I don't think a lot of people study film and Personnel metrics as part of their process which I personally don't understand a lot of people their analysis is writing narratives reacting based on how they feel from watching games live and you know they come up with these opinions and they might find a a common stat to support their opinion but that's it to me I I think you you got to be in the film you got to be studying the analytics as yourself questions like why why is this the way and you kind of figure it out the analyst I aspire to be is one that studies tape studies metrics and tries to determine the how and why so that's kind of who I I I dictate the analysis that I pay attention to based on who I think does those things because I think that's how you truly figure it out like to me when we do the all 22 review episodes that is straight up therapy for me even if the bills lose or play poorly like the answers to me are always in the tape it's not based on the emotional response that you have from watching a football game like that can get you places that can help you form opinions but the reality the truth it's always in the tape and so I don't I don't I couldn't do this job without studying the film taking notes seeing Trends studying it asking why looking at metrics like I think that's how you that's how you gain the full picture so that you can deliver the full picture that's what I aspire to be and the analysts that I care about do that next one here comes from John John says you've said numerous times in the past that luck factors into winning a Super Bowl on top of good roster construction I was curious do you think injury luck or turnover luck is more important once you enter the playoffs good question here but I do want to point out like it's a little uncomfortable to acknowledge but there is an element of luck are things going your way to win the Super Bowl I go to any team that's ever won the Super Bowl I can promise you I can point to a moment that went their way that led to that win think about like just the Chiefs when they beat the Eagles there was that crappy punt by Aaron cyos that was a line drive that set him up for the short field special teams blunders against the 49ers last year the pass interference call when the Rams beat the Bengals right like there's there's always these little things that just kind of go your way now I think think you can create your own luck to an extent the you know Chance favors they're prepared like I believe in that too but there is an element of hey it goes our way playoffs in the NFL are single elimination game and the the ball has a weird shape right things can happen but to your question your question is it's is it more important to have injury luck or turnover luck I think it's probably injury luck I mean at the end of the day football is our guys verse your guys our best players verse your best players and if you don't have your guys then it's hard to stack up how you want to be and it's hard to be the team that you're designed to be go back to like literally last year with the bills I keep going back to this but I think it I think it provides a good foundation for this answer when the Bills lost mat Milano what do they have to do on passing Downs Tyrell doson comes off the field Jordan puyer moves from safety to linebacker Taylor rap comes in as a deep safety all because you didn't have a key skill set for foundationally how you play defense and you you don't have guys like that it's tough you build a team you invest your salary cap with a certain vision in mind and if you don't have your guys it's key I mean that's kill you it'll absolutely kill you turnovers matter a ton don't get me wrong there's a huge correlation to winning and losing in the NFL based on turnover differential but as the saying goes your best ability is your avability so so give me the injury luck give me the guys that I'm supposed to have and we'll let the the chips fall where they may when it comes to turnovers all right folks that's going to do it for us here today on the podcast as always I kindly ask that you rate review share and subscribe have a great rest of your day go bills and I look forward to catching up with you again real soon