US Open Finals Prediction - Does Taylor Fritz Have a Chance Against Jannik Sinner?

hello welcome on in it's betting Weekly game bet match and after two weeks of action in New York we are back with our final betting Weekly game bet match on the US Open it's the men's singles final between Yanik sinner the number one season and number one American Taylor Fritz so look ahead to the match and go through all the Best Bets and all the stats it's our senior ATB tour handicapper is Sean Calver on a very cold a very wet and a very early Saturday morning how are you Sean I'm all right I think for this ungodly hour um yeah not bad it's easy that cold I've been it's not I think I'm all right here I am absolutely freezing yes I got a t-shirt on look not I've got about three layers freezing cold I'm tired I haven't had a shave like it I it's more like I haven't had any first cup of coffee this is all because of producer John when get start it's unbelievable I know this is what we do isn't it is you know to to to help people out you know put ourselves in this position where we're doing it early doors if it's cuz if if you're tired that makes you cold doesn't it so you know if is it is a bit tiring I guess going from New York come back but you know we're all professionals here so you season Pros did you st up on watching tennis last night no you must have watched a draper game and then G to S Draper yeah I mean if IID have done I knew we had to record this at 9:00 a.m. if IID have watched the other one as well yeah it's only just finished isn't it only finished about four or five hours ago so that have been no chance of me recording this at 9ine o'clock in the morning so um I didn't see I didn't see any of the uh Fritz tier Fair mat the the overd double faults bet cash didn't it for anyone that was on that easy as well I think TFO hit nine on his own didn't he so yeah anyone that managed to get on that would have had a a nice winner but no it's not it's not really feasible for me to stay up till 3:00 in the morning watching tennis then do a show at 9:00 a.m. it's not you might be able to do that but I think I woke up I woke up about half 4 and put on the phone to see that uh t throw thrown it away and Fritz had won in five sets but um I haven't watched the game look at the match now look at the breakdown of the match now but I did watch the the C Draper match and I must admit for a thre Setter it was quite a brutal Affair wasn't it big hitting yeah I mean Draper makes anything look brutal doesn't he I mean you know I talked about it on the live show yesterday it's just that physicality he's not he's not really capable of doing it is he I mean he does I think the problem with Draper is that he puts a massive effort into into his shots into his game and sooner or later he gets he was exhausted after one set that match yesterday he's I mean it wasn't that hot I mean it was 25° which you know for US Open Standards that's not hot all right it was there was it was a bit humid but you know he was absolutely how many times did he Chang his shirt and his his his um trainers he was soaking wet by the end of the first he looked absolutely dead after the first set and you know he was C was was a little bit generous I think and a little bit proplate in in many ways he should have broken Draper about three times in that second set ended up go into a tiebreak and Draper was thrown up on the court numerous times you know it's it's it's the same it's the same thing with Draper isn't it that I talked about it's that physicality that he whether he just isn't able to do it or whether he just needs you know to look at things a different way in terms of his physical training or or whatever nutrition or whatever it is he does you know he's got he's he needs to sort that out really cuz it's uh it's kind of holding him back a bit yep uh that was a brutal match but yanex s came through in three sets and obviously had less Court time than the five sets played by his opponent in the final Taylor Fritz who been big bidding to become the first American Andy M sorry Andy Mar Andy rodic in I start was early in 2003 to win the Andy rodic in 2003 to win the US Open men singles title and that's saor Fritz who come through that match against tfl that was an epic match as well obviously we haven't I haven't even watched the match yet but I broke them looking at the stats and the times and you know you're going to think that c will come onto this court a little bit fresher given that Fritz's exertions in that match and also the match against ver as well uh before we go into that let's have a look at the match odds with bet Rivers Shan's going to give us the conditions the weather forecast and what we expect to find on Sunday evening uh Yanik sner is the favorite he's minus 345 which is no surprise he is the number one seed he's only lost twice on the hard court this year he's had a brilliant season 31 wins and only two two losses on a hardc court and you know Fritz has got to play the game of his match of his life to to beat C here plus 275 is Fritz the spread is 4 and a half- 125 for cner giving up the four and a half the plus four and a half start for Fritz is plus 104 the total here 38 and a half which on my first glance I think you know if you're going for an angle total could be the one that you want to go for but Sean will give you the breakdown on that the two of them have played twice before uh they met in 2023 in Indian Wales C won in three sets 6446 64 and they also met in Indian worlds in 2021 where Fritz won 64 63 but it's a very very different yanic C now he's coming in his Australian Open Champion he's BR to win his second major of 2024 and Fritz has all the pressure on his shoulders I suppose the best thing for Fritz is that he knows the crowd are going to be on his side uh in this match it's going to be quite a volatile atmosphere for cner the Americans are are praying for blood and uh you know s here he has had problems in Long matches before I suppose that's the y for Fritz here getting him into a long grind get that crowd behind and see what we can do yeah I mean a lot will depend on on how Fritz still Shape Up physically after that five set I mean I didn't see it but I've read the match reports and seen a few little highlights um pretty epic battle from from all accounts Fritz against T he obviously had to come from two sets to one down which is a big mental effort as well as physical effort and just the the occasion of that match you would think that would take quite a bit out of him plus there's ver match as well which was another huge match for Taylor Fritz um so physically you got to you got to be a little bit concerned about Taylor Fritz but is is Yanik init you know he fell over on that I don't know whether people saw but he fell over on his wrist trying to retrieve I don't know why he was doing it was 40 love down I think in that game if I remember rightly sinner Draper was bossing this rally to you know to win the game sin's gone for a real retrieval there and sort of collided with something in at The Back Fence fallen over on his left wrist and he's he's the his weight has gone on his left wrist there and he didn't look too great for a while I don't know whether you saw that but I'm just not sure I didn't think he looked great throughout the match I know he did enough to win him he was breathing quite heavy and he looked a bit exhausted at stages and I you know it shocked me when you said earlier it was 25 degrees because he looked like he was he was struggling as well I I thought if if if Draper took that second set I thought you know what could be a battle of the fitt between it when it was any which would have been which would have been sin because I mean Draper was was was dead wasn't he by the by the end of the second set end of yeah definitely the end of the second set arguably at the end of the first set as well but that that would worry me if I was back in C at minus 345 yeah he never looks like the the toughest of physical specimens does he I mean if you imagine someone like Nadal having that fall he would have just got up and got on with it even if it hurt I mean s just he's a bit like jokovic in that sense any tiny little thing like that it just seems to be a big problem um he doesn't he's not the fittest not the fittest he's not the strongest of of physical specimens is he that that that's what would worry me I'm going to assume he's okay as far as that wrist is concerned because he did play another couple of well set and a half after that it's obviously his left wrist so it's not it's not his forehand wrist it's obviously the good wrist if you want to call it like that for to to get an um he didn't seem to have too many problems for the rest of the match so let's assume that's okay cuz problem bet problem with betting these finals is there's a lot of imponderables aren't they in terms of Fitness injuries fatigue all that stuff which is what one of the reason why they're not ideal betting mediums but obviously this is a massive match and people will want to bet it um as far as the matchup is concerned I don't think Fritz will mind this matchup for me I think that're they're very similar Styles you know aggressive baseliners like to get the big big forehand into play and and dictate the rally from there on their own terms um I feel like sin's got to change it up a little bit for me c he does have that sort of Net game and and the variety but he doesn't really use it very much against against Draper yesterday I didn't see I don't recall C hitting a single drop shot Draper hit a few but I feel like C just he's trying to hit through everybody from the Baseline and he's been extremely successful at it and you know I can't be critical of him because it it's worked and he's you know the top top guy The Unborn seed um but against Fritz that's what Fritz likes Fritz doesn't like people giving him the variety The Little Drop shots the short slices Fritz is very very happy moving side to side on the Baseline and trading with with with these guys with cner um so I think C is going to have to change something up a little bring Taylor Fritz into the net you know tennis is all about putting the ball where your opponent doesn't want it to be and and from Taylor Fritz's point of view that's that's short slice isn't the net he doesn't want to be there so that's where sin should be putting him if he can uh and if he's comfortable doing that because if you look at the head-to-head you know as you said it's 1-1 both played Indian Welles where it is slow um High bouncing you know slightly different conditions to here but across those two matches in terms of the service points one and return points one ttles it's actually Fritz that that leads 101 to 99 and sin has only won 41% of second serve points across those two matches Fritz has won 55% so if you go in on the the bare match up although it was you know a couple of years ago you would be thinking well sin's pretty short here at minus 345 but as you said sin's a much improved player since then one of those meetings was 2021 the other one last year 2023 year and a half ago so you know C is a different animal since then but as I said I think the matchup isn't isn't that bad for for Taylor Fritz if you look at what these two have done um this US Open so far I mentioned on the live show yesterday siners service points won in return points one tot was 118 now it's dropped a little bit to 117 but still still excellent Fritz on 112 so a little bit further back um the other stat I think of relevance is what these two guys have done against the current top 10 this season Sinner's stats are very very good indeed 73% win rate in those matches and a service points won and return points WN total of 107 so it doesn't get better than that really against top 10 opponents to come out with 107 and win 73% of their matches Fritz isn't bad 50% win rate and a service points one and return points one to the 99 that's that's decent it's you know sin's numbers are really really good and Fritz is a good you know that for for his ranking to have won half his matches against the current top 10 and come out with a total of 99 is pretty decent but the the slight limitation of his game kind of shows through a bit on those stats he's only won 31.6% of return points in those matches against the top 10 and that's where he's perhaps going to lose this match is not being able to break cner often enough you know C is a a much improved server now than he was a year or two a year or two ago certainly when these matches when their priors were played certainly a better server um I feel like it's going to be a tough match for sin I do fancy him to win it but I certainly wouldn't back him I think you'll get bigger than minus 345 in play if you want to back cner um I got a couple of Lans here I think it's all going on cner to win it but in in a in a quite a tough and lengthy match I don't think he'll have this all his own way at all before we go to the L just on to the Lan Sean I mean the weather the weather for Sunday is quite cold it's 22° it's going to be you know it's not going to be hot is that from my opinion that would probably suit C more I think was Fritz want it hotter and you know the balls flying around a little bit or was is not real much advantage to either of them I don't think it makes that much difference I mean obviously Fritz has Fritz played a night match you know last night he came through that I can't imagine either either of them would want it hot CER I can't imagine would want it hot Fritz I can't imagine would want another test of stamina after after a five Setter and a you know tough four against verev I'm not sure it makes that much difference I I think that the conditions will be ideal for for both of them it's an afternoon match isn't it 2 p.m. I think local time start um yeah I think that would suit both of them just remember that match is on Sunday and bet Rivers do have over 50 markets it's very early and there'd be loads of more markets being added as the countdown to the US Open men singles final starts just on the pre tournament form obviously c one Cincinnati so he's on a brilliant unbeaten run at the moment Taylor Fritz had a very very indiff start or coming into he's had a real poor year actually by standers on the hard courts he lost in the first round in Cincinnati the tournament before the US Open against nashima lost in Montreal to cter Lost in the Olympics to MTI so it's what he's done here is quite exceptional really turn his form around but in the early hours of trading the trading's only been open for a few hours now we've you know five hours after the TFO match is finished and the early money is for Fritz and I'm not surprised by that because people very rarely like to bet a minus 345 shot in the final they want to get with a dog you can see when crowds cheer for the dog in the finals nobody wants to bet a minus 345 and obviously it's an American player and the American betting public want the American to do well so I can understand that that value there uh Sean you've looked at some of the markets the other markets look at the leans what what are you what are you sort of fancying here the two I've I've kind of earmarked um for for the leans here over 21 and a half player games for anxon at plus money plus 102 the thinking on that is that he's not going to win this in straight sets I feel like he's going to win this four probably you know maybe maybe Fritz even pushing him to five because you know Fritz is massively motivated here obviously um first Grand Slam final there might be some nerves around for him but you know the level that he's played you know certainly in the last couple of matches I think that level will be good enough to to at least give c a very good match you know I wasn't I wasn't massively impressed press was sin yesterday against Draper I mean there was so many chances he had to break Draper where he and it wasn't Draper saving a lot of those break points with Aces we did save one or two a lot of them were neutral rallies and S was just a little bit impatient and a few sort of poor errors I wasn't sold on him s at all yesterday he did what he had to do but against an opponent that was clearly not fit but I feel like the level Fritz is playing will push um will push Yanik s here so if sinner is to Win It um obviously the minus 345 doesn't doesn't appeal so over 21 and a half player games that basically means he's going to win this in sort of 4ish or potentially five obviously if he wins this in straight sets you've lost the bet you know if he wins it even if even if it's 76 75 75 I I can't see that happening I can't see a situation here where Fritz doesn't win at least a set unless he's severely compromised by fatigue but I I wouldn't have thought so it was only 3 hours 18 minutes that TFO much you know so that's not that's not a four or five hour you know epic um and obviously this is Fritz's dream match you know it's it's it's his career goal he must have dreamed about this a lot you know throughout his life so he's I can't imagine fatigue will be a a major major issue um so over 21 and a half player games for cner that's plus 102 bet Rivers all for the big price punt um C to win it three sets to one seems a sensible option 3.4 Plus 242 but Rivers feel like that's the way it's going to go C to win it but not easily it was only 15 minutes longer the fritz match than the C game and C match was 75 7662 and this was a five Setter is that right yeah 15 minutes hours I think there was a lot of delays there wasn't there in the in this in the in the C Draper match I mean Draper was throwing up for a lot of the time and when he wasn't throwing up he was changing his trainers and changing his shirt and wiping up the sick off the court there was a I think a lot of the delays were were due to that a normal Friday night for a London boy in New York well it's a normal it's a normal situation for Draper he's constantly being sick on the court isn't he you know big problem for him but yeah there were an awful lot of delays in that match I think that's probably why that the match times were were as close as they are I mean 3 hours 18 minutes is pretty quick for a five Setter um and obviously 3 hours it's qu quite long for a three Setter but as I say there were a lot of delays medical timeouts as well in the C match so yeah a lot of that was C probably sitting down and watching Draper do whatever he was doing on the other end of the court now I vowed to you to never mention it again but the last time Fritz was in probably the biggest match his biggest match other than this week was back in 2022 and the SE in the quarterfinal of wimam where we played Rafal Nadal and we have very very painful memories of that helping very nice tickets on tayor Fritz and after the match we come on this we sort of complained about how lucky we were we moaned about the performance Fritz tactically didn't have any idea how to beat Nadal and we we sort of questioned his tactics you know if he had idea one dimensional one dimensional that's you have you seen enough of his game to think that he's got the game to mix it up against C he's got to change it hasn't he yeah it's just a different matchup that that situation against Nadal he he was constantly playing the the backand that he's comfortable with which is crosscourt you know if he'd have played the backand down the line that day against Nadal Nadal couldn't move to his right so it was a no-brainer really to to throw in quite a few backhands down the line but he he didn't want to do it I think we spoke to I think it was James Blake wasn't it we spoke to um a while ago after that match wasn't it and he said that Fritz just isn't comfortable doing that well okay but that's not that's not going to win your major major tournaments is it oh I'm not comfortable doing that well great okay don't do it then but you won't you aren't going to win a major then are you so he he has put a little bit more variety in but he still isn't comfortable as I said coming to the net if I was Darren Cahill and I was you going through this match with cner you you would be looking at putting in those sort of short slices and putting Fritz where he isn't comfortable he still isn't comfortable at the four Court he can volley but sometimes it's not great it's not a natural volley by any means it's not something that comes easily to him he clearly isn't comfortable doing that um so in terms of the variety yeah I still think Fritz need if if Fritz does add a Net game you know he he can be top five I would suggest if but it doesn't seem like he's going to do that so he's going to have to beat Sin from the back of the court but cner you know he's not massively comfortable at the net he's not massively comfortable with with the the variety the kind of play that is going to be needed to beat Fritz so this is this is going to be an out and hour Base Line battle which which is what Taylor Fritz wants he doesn't want people bringing in the variety so you know if sin is able to to bring in them short slices and and make Fritz uncomfortable and that that for me that would make his task a lot easier um you know Fritz does only have that one way to play you know but at the moment he's doing it very very well y so the general conclusion for the final of the US Open is janic s probably going to be too good for Taylor Fritz but minus 345 on the money line absolutely no value for us at all probably will win it and if you want to bet it 345 and put it in a Pary on the NFL games that's entirely up to you but for us we think there's better value sha is going to go for two leans Shan if you just let us know your leans yeah over Center to win over 21 and a half player games plus 102 bet rivers and the other one is the bigger priced option C to win this by three sets to one at plus 240 with bet Rivers I'm pretty much on the same page as Shawn but I'm going to go for just the over 38 and a half games here atus 117 I do think Fritz could take his set and I do think there's a good opportunity that we get a tie break which is always good obviously we need three tie breaks of a straight set match to win on the over a cash on the over 38 and a half but I do think the crowd c will have a lull and I think Fritz will will get some advantage and unlike t d who had opportunities I think Fritz will be able to capitalize on those okay that's been it for the US Open it's been a fabulous two weeks thank you very much for all you your views all your subscriptions uh everyone who's commented on the content here uh thank you very much all for your time over the last two weeks have enjoyed it as per usual uh really had had a great time over in New York as well thanks to bet Rivers for myself and Sean being able to go to New York and watch some tennis and Supply some content for you on social media uh me and Sean are going to have a break on the ATB tour there's a break next week so there is no tennis next week and I think they go to the Asian swingland it's a weird start again isn't it so we probably starting we'll probably be back in just over a week's time now looking at the action on the ATB tour here on game bit match the tennis action on the channel doesn't stop I'll be back with Roy joani The Tomorrow preview the WTA action and obviously it's a week uh there's no major soccer across Europe as well with the international break but the daily shows every day at 11:00 Eastern time with all the crew will be going on Monday to Friday as we're giving you the daily action where the money is being placed all across the sporting World remember to download this podcast betting Weekly game match subscribe to the YouTube channel over 5,000 subscribers we hit yesterday so thank you very much for that at betting weekly Studios and obviously follow us again across socials at because we win uh Sean thank you as always for your time nice to get you up nice and early on a Saturday morning enjoy the rest of your weekend and enjoy your break you got anything planned for your break um not really no I mean because obviously we've got leing we can't you know he's only just gone back to school I can't I can't really take him out well I could but I'd have a I'd have a a knock at the door I think from South End Council so I can't I can't really do that so just yeah just just a bit of a break just a bit of a mental refresh we've been doing this for you know about nine nine months now haven't we so you know it's you don't get too many breaks in the Tennesse what you get coup it's their only week until when this the whole in during the whole season before the end you know obviously when the end of the season comes in November time you get November to to January this is the only week in in the the bre a break it was I think there was two last year wasn't there but they they keep changing the calendar but yeah this is this is just a nice a nice week off for me yeah I think it's the eight I think it's Wednesday the 18th that CH Chang Du starts so I guess we'll probably be back on the on the Tuesday before that the 17th I would imagine but yeah just just a nice little refresh for me just a bit of a a wind down and then back on it for the Asian swing which I always really enjoy as well yeah we're looking forward to that we're looking forward to bet betting Nisha again at nice price I'm sure his name will crop up yeah on the Asian swing I'm heading to Greece for the week on Monday going out there just for a little week away but I will be back uh throughout uh the week on the live shows and also on the Premier League podcast on Thursday okay that's been it for game B match enjoy the rest of your weekend good luck with your bets and we want obviously we think yanex CER will win but obviously for American tennis it would be great to see Taylor Fritz become the first American men's player since Andy rodic in 2003 to win the US Open Crown good luck to everyone take care and I see you in a week or so take care