Re-Evaluating the Kansas Jayhawks Football Opponents on the 2024 Schedule After Week 1 Overreactions

on today's lock on Jayhawks overreacting to what happened in week one as it pertains to KU football's opponents and the rest of the season's schedule you are locked on J Hawks your daily podcast on the Kansas j-hawks part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day I'm Derek Johnson you can find me on Twitter at D Johnson radio and you can find the show called locked on Jayhawks anywhere you get your podcast including on our YouTube page where you can like And subscribe to the show thank you for making it your first listen every day thank you to every dayers catching each and every show on today's edition of the show we're going to overreact to what happened in week one is KU football schedule easier is it harder or is it about the same from where it was from maybe we were considering it before week one because you know some of these things are going to be overreactions but some of them might be true like Florida state looks obviously KU doesn't play Florida state looks horrible so if Florida state would have been on ku's schedule all of a sudden that would have gone from like a oh no that's goingon to be a really tough game to win to like yeah they should win that game right those are the sort of things even if they might be a little crazy that you can overreact to in week one so we'll get into that also a little bit of an update on some other of the Fall sports with KU volleyball and KU soccer coming up at the end of the show with volleyball ranked in the top 15 right now this episode is rang is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook now through September 22nd all FanDuel customers can bet $5 and get a three-week free trial of NFL Sunday Ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV visit fanduel.com to get started today all right so let's take this one by one as we go through the KU football schedule how they did in week one and how that pertains to kind of our thoughts about that game for KU and and the opponent and just how good they are the first one is this game upcoming against Illinois and stick around on Friday we'll have Aku Illinois preview we'll also have our postcast after the game this weekend so make sure you're subscribe to the show but Illinois played Eastern Illinois and you look at it Eastern Illinois not a great FCS team either uh ESPN FP SP plus has Eastern Illinois 64th in among like 130 FCS teams lyndenwood for what it's worth is 110th so you could argue that Illinois and Kansas both beat their FCS opponents by 45 but Illinois was a little bit better but like you can't play that that comparison game and Kansas bench their starters at halftime basically right um so it's really hard to say like how this affected them and for some of the teams that only played FCS opponents it's going to be hard to say to have that overreaction most of the overreactions you can have after week one are teams that played another good team or played a power five team or or something that gives a little bit more context than playing a middleof the- pack FCS team but I will say this the thing about Illinois is their running game did look really good in the Eastern Illinois game Luke alme had five incompletions he had four touchdown passes so he was really efficient and those can be scary for the offense but um I I think also what's important to look at here is the negatives and like Illinois only registered one sack they only registered three tackles for loss defensively so something we talked about the other day is how good is this Illinois front four going to be how good is the D line well they didn't cause a lot of pressure against Eastern Illinois and they did hold them to 2.2 yards per carry so maybe they were effective in a different way um but I don't know in one end like I I think I'm worried more about the Illinois running game this year than I was last season but also maybe like the defensive line is worse this year than it was a season ago so I think that would be the overreaction to week one there I think the bigger overreaction would be to ku's week three opponent that would be UNLV because UNLV went into Houston and just basically smashed him I mean I guess a 20-point win isn't like demolishing but I think it was 27 nothing at one point like they were in control of that whole game um it's entirely possible looking at that result the Houston is just really bad like there are some preseason Publications that picked Houston to be the worst team in the Big 12 and so yes it's still a good win for a Mountain West school if they're going to the worst team in the Big 12 and winning by 20 points like that is still a nice win for them but this might not be as big of a deal as you think but even what stood out to me even if Houston does end up being really bad Beyond winning by 20 points you know on the road I I think more poignantly they only gave up seven points because what do we remember from unov a season ago it's that they had one of the most explosive one of the best offenses in the country a season ago I don't know that would be a little hyperbolic but they had a really good offense okay the defense was not very good like you look at ESPN SB plus this was a a good offense it was a bad defense a season ago but their head coach Barry Odum a former defensive coordinator defensive guy you figured you know maybe the defense would kind of come along a little bit well in this game yovi's offense wasn't that impressive but the defense was really good so I don't know where you go with that because look at the offense they return a lot so with all the guys they return and all these stud skill players they return you could almost view it as saying okay we we think the offense is going to be good the fact that their defense showed out like this does that mean they're a complete team this year does that mean they are a a group of five uh contend like they could end up being the best group of five team and end up making the college football playoff because they win the Mountain West and go 11 and one or 10 and two and a ranked you know 22nd in the country and they're the highest ranked group of five team and they get the 12 seed in the college football playoff like that doesn't seem like that crazy um so the defense looking really good was kind of the big takeaway for me here now you could also um negatively overreact to their first game and just say Okay Houston is like a really really bad team it's not a big deal and unov lost jayen mayva to USC and their quarterbacks who were in the game went seven of 14 for 13 yards and I think one of those passes was a trick play that got 40 yards I think realistically their quarterback was like six of 13 for like 71 yards in the opener against not a great Houston secondary so um maybe the offense is maybe the defense is better but maybe the offense is way worse right so I I do think on paper though I view this unov game as a little bit more dangerous now I do think I view unov as as being a little bit better than they were a season ago but Kansas might also be a little B better than they were a season ago and they get this one at home as opposed to on a neutral site at a bowl game what about West Virginia in week three well they played Penn State they're a top 10 team they played against so you know Penn State could end up being a lead with adding and Andy kcki to what they've already been um and so at the end of the day like if if West Virginia lost by 22 to Penn State and Penn State ends up being a top five or six team in the country like that's not that bad of a loss it's really not um I do think it's interesting something they brought up on the broadcast that I thought a lot about and I forget if this was one of the pregame shows or uh on the actual broadcast itself but the idea that West Virginia um was pretty much a like it was a little bit of a simple offense a season ago but it worked it was like simplicity to a good like there's nothing wrong with that but it was running the football it was read options it was quarterback run game it was screen passes and it was you know like deep balls uh occasionally here or there to to keep the pressure off him but there wasn't a lot of the consistency in the intermediate and short passing game and I think you saw that a little bit in this game Garrett green had a 37 qbr so I wonder if with a full season of scouting against them uh if the offense can take a step back plus the tougher schedule this year compared to last year but I think what what what my big take away from this game was Andy he runs a similar offense Kansas is going to run in this game Drew Aller had a 98 qbr he was he was uh you know the stats look really good as a freshman and it was a freshman season but you see him in the big games and like it was it was not very good in those games so a 98 qbr for d for Drew Aller they had 222 rushing yards I feel better about the Kansas offense in this game and maybe better about Kansas overall in this game but it's still a West Virginia team that could make a bowl game and you know playing on the road that far away it still becomes kind of a tricky game TCU they played Stanford on I think it was a Thursday night to open up the season I don't think Stanford's a very good team they're probably like a three to four win teams the fact that TCU had to struggle with them they were down at halftime the fact that it was a I think a three-point game at the end of the third quarter that they won by seven I don't know that this is the the big thing that TCU was looking for it was on the road but it was like a half-filled stadium um I do think TCU is better than they were season too but I was thinking maybe TCU could bounce up to eight or nine wins this year and after watching this game if we're overreacting it might be more of like a six or seven win season for TCU um they did hel hold Stanford to negative yards in the third quarter I actually was impressed with the defense for TCU I mean they still got give up 27 to Stanford but on the first drive they had like three personal fouls or four personal fouls that if that doesn't happen there's one less touch down there so anyway uh they held the QB to a 12 qbr I I think if the defense is better which it looks like it is I really like their receivers um I don't know that I trust their running game I think Hoover can sling it around a bit I think they're a dangerous team they're a dangerous six or seven win team um that will be better than they were season ago but I I after one week I'm not ready to say they're one of those you know top 15 TCU teams that it feels like they rotate every two or three years like they have a bad year then they have like a top 10 season or something like that uh then we'll get to Arizona State for the last one here before we take a quick timeout um I think the stock is definitely up for Arizona state after their week one performance I thought Wyoming was going to be a strong Mountain West team because they just have been they've been so consistent the last handful of years but now they're head coach Craig B retired TI at the end of last season and so you wondered if they could keep it going or not I don't know if that had something to do with it I don't know if it was just Arizona State's that good Wyoming's quarterback Evan saoba he went six of 15 for 42 yards and two interceptions with negative 30 rushing yards so he had 12 total yards with a 3.7 qbr they held Wyoming to 1.7 yards per carry and they ran for almost 250 themselves they had three sacks they had two picks uh pick six their QB was efficient so stocks going up for Arizona State but is the stock going up from being a two or three team to being a four- win team is going up to being a six or seven win team that remains to be seen we're going to learn more about them this week they have Mississippi State and uh that should be a good barometer of like a Mississippi State team who could win I don't know four to six games in the SEC this year but if you're beating that in the Big 12 that probably means you could be a six or seven win team so I think that'll be a better test there but that was a good first passing for Arizona state that that game might be harder than we first envisioned when the schedule came out all right let's get to the rest of the schedule uh week one over reaction to that on this episode of on J Hawks we are brought to you by FanDuel sports book you've heard us talk a lot about FanDuel America's number one sports book you can bet on the Kansas Illinois game you can get in on the Chiefs Ravens game which is happening later tonight you can get futures for who's going to win the Heisman who's going to win the Super Bowl well there's something a little different for you in addition to all that now through September 22nd all FanDuel customers can bet $5 and get a three-week free trial of NFL Sunday Ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV then with a YouTube TV base plan you'll be able to watch every regular season Sunday afternoon at a market game and I don't know if you saw but you know last year they had the quad screens that you could put up with NFL Sunday Ticket they were all predetermined it was still cool but it was predetermined games now you can build your own quad box of it with NFL Sunday Ticket so get that three week for trial and all you need is Google account current form of payment and you can cancel anytime and FanDuel official Sportsman partner of the lockdown podcast Network thank you the dares tuning in each and every episode and don't forget to make your second listen locked on college football or if you want to check out what's going on with one of these upcoming opponents for KU you can do that as well lock on Big 12 or one of these other shows all right uh so let's get to the back half of the schedule as uh it pertains to what happened in week one and overreacting to what happened for how it affects ku's schedule verse Houston all of a sudden that game does that become ku's most winnable game remaining a home game against Houston they lost by 20 points to UNLV it's a home game it's in Arrowhead I can't imagine they're going to bring a a lot of like visiting fans like Iowa State and Colorado possibly could to the game in Arrowhead um I I don't know what else is in the discussion for the easiest game quote unquote for uh KU football the rest of the season I think it's Houston hands down now I say all that and obviously I continue to believe Willie Fritz is a great head coach the underdog Factor there now it's even easier to overlook this game you still can't Overlook it but I do think if you're power ranking them this is probably the easiest but I mean you look at Donovan Smith like the former transfer from Texas Tech he was supposed to be in year two in the system I I guess not the same system because new coach he had a 3.9 qbr their stud running back Parker Jenkins I don't know if he got hurt because he only had two carries it's like what's up with that um UNLV had five sacks and 10 tfls this Houston offensive line gonna be really bad so okay you should be able to dominate that one um and that could be good but also other reason that that game could be closer than you expect is the look ahead Factor you have that K State the next game and and that can certainly happen there so I know what people want me to say here that K State was it was what like 20 to6 or something uh Midway through the third something like that of the UT Martin game and that there was a point where K State was not looking all that great and that Avery Johnson was not looking all that great and Avery Johnson only finished with a 39.5 qbr so it was not a good game for him um if it continue I I'm not ready to go down the overreaction of like let's watch each and every throw in this FCS game and be like oh you're good you're bad right um if it continues if Avery Johnson continues to put up 40 qbrs and then the next couple of weeks then yes I think that will continue to be a thing and be a conversation but they averaged over nine yards per carries in offense they W by 35 it was a decent FCS opponent we're gonna learn more about K State this week at Tain and then the next week versus Arizona that I don't need to overreact to what happened in the FCS game it was just an FCS game and they probably didn't want to put a lot on on tape for those games since they have a pretty tough next two weeks and that'll teach us more about K State with toan and Arizona what about Iowa State Iowa State played North Dakota and you know I I don't know what it is I feel like Iowa State plays an FCS Team every year usually it's like Northern Iowa and it's always like way closer than you would expect and it's like 17 to1 or something like they can't blow these teams out um that was the case here uh 21 to3 North Dakota was solid I think they won seven games in the FCS but not like an elite FCS team the defense is probably going to be great once again is kind of what this reinforces me but here's the thing so I have kind of been on this this I don't know not anti like I I continue to think Iowa State's a good football team I think they'll win six seven or eight games this year and I continue to think that after this game my thought has not changed on Iowa State but there was some of this hype and I love Phil steel to death but he came on here and has them as like you know his Dark Horse to possibly win the league and stuff like that I just don't see it and and some of these preseason Publications because they bring back like their starting offens line Peg them as a top five offensive line but it's like in my money they weren't a maybe even a top half offensive line in the Big 12 a season to go so you might be improving from a season ago but what are you improving too they only averaged 3.9 yards per carry against North Dakota so I think they're a good team they could beat KU they'll bring a lot of fans to that game but I think they're closer to being like a 678 win team than they are a a true Big 12 title Contender okay what about the game at BYU they played Southern Illinois that was an eight- win FCS team from the Missouri Valley so that's a good FCS team um again I don't know for some of these FCS teams how much they bring back though but BYU still couldn't run the ball that was a problem for BYU last year which was weird because you look at like every other year leading up to that and maybe shout out Jeff Grimes that he helped them do that they were like a good running team they were a power running team last year they could not run the football and they weren't able to run the football in this FCS game so I I think that's a little bit scary there they got good efficient QB play which was good the past defense was strong but um I feel kind of the same way about BYU that I feel about like K State where it's like let's learn more this week at SMU and then they play at Wyoming after that which will be a good cross reference to Arizona State to be like which team is is kind of better and especially since you play both on the road and they're both in either the mountain or West Coast time out Colorado I think Colorado is the same team as last year which I mean that's a team that can sneak up and beat you right I mean they beat TCU in the Big 12 a season ago they almost beat USC a season ago um but also they do have serious flaws because I watched that North Dakota State game and North Dakota State's a good team so um it is what it is but like I'm sitting there watching it I'm like this is exactly Colorado last year it's shadar Sanders is going to make some incredible plays at the quarterback position where he's bobbing and weaving in the pocket ET throwing downfield finding open guys making these huge highlight chunk plays that's going to continue to happen um you're going to get some receivers making great plays downfield Travis Hunter you know blowing by guys those are things that happened last year they're happening this year didn't really do great running the football offensive line struggled I know they only gave up I think it was one sack but like you watch that game shider Sanders is like constantly evading pressure right and then uh you look at the defense and the defense was you know having some issues there they did better in the second half and I do think their defensive line their pass rush specifically is better than a season ago so I I do think they're a little bit better than a season ago I have them as a bow Team but like they're pretty much the same style they were season ago that's I guess my overreaction there and then uh the Baylor game to finish off another one that tough to learn from they played Tarlton state that was an eight and3 FCS team so good on Baylor to win 42 by 42 um but if you're starting quarterback's dayquon Finn you don't want to see him throw two picks in the FCS game you don't want to see Baylor only average 3.8 yards per carry on the ground but with D Randa focusing more on the defensive end of the football that kind of got him to be a hot coaching hire to begin with he held tlon state to just 181 yards so maybe Baylor ends up being a team that is better than a season ago just because the defense is better but maybe the offense doesn't end up being that much better but another team that we're going to learn more about because they're at Utah this week which I think is technically a non-conference game even though they're now Big 12 opponents just because it was previously scheduled that way uh if they lose by 10 points like I think that's a good thing for for how good Baylor could possibly be but if you get blown out or I don't know if you win the game all of a sudden we're going to be talking is Baylor a big 12 title Contender right so uh I think some interesting ways that that can go all right we're going to finish up here KU volleyball has a top 15 team let's talk about that next un lock on j-hawks this episode of lockon jhawk is brought to you by LinkedIn jobs when you're hiring for small businesses you want to find quality professionals that are right for the role that's why you have to check out LinkedIn jobs LinkedIn jobs has the tools to help you find the right Professionals for your team faster and for free LinkedIn isn't just a job board they help you hire professionals you can't find anywhere else even those who aren't actively searching for a new job but might be open to the perfect role in a given month over 70% of LinkedIn users don't visit other leading job sites so if you're not looking on LinkedIn you're looking in the wrong place on LinkedIn 86% of small businesses get a qualified candidate within 24 hours hire professionals like a professional on LinkedIn post a job for free at linkedin.com loock onol that is linkedin.com loock onol posted job free terms and conditions apply we'll have a KU preview against Illinois on tomorrow's episode get into the matchups of the game and some pick a prop all that sort of stuff on tomorrow's episode of the show and then on either late Saturday night early Sunday morning we'll have our postcast for the KU Illinois game so make sure catching all that subscribe to the show well KU volleyball is ranked in the top 15 meanwhile so that's pretty cool and Ray bashard continues to do great things for KU there three and0 star for them them they won nine of 10 sets in matches against South Carolina Duke and Colgate over the weekend they were 13th to the preseason stay 13th it's a really good team so you have the the core of these players who have been back like Cameron Turner is one of the best Setters in the country um you got players that you can go all around to it Caroline bienn has kind of went from being an outside hitter to being an outside hitter who's playing a lot in the back to this year getting more swings again onabanjo elady Davis like those three players are are swinging lights out right now early on in the season you got some newcomers coming in a 64 freshman middle blocker and Zoe bergus and then Aisha alono looked really good in in the first weekend possible breakout player there this a really talented team that uh I I think the hope is they can have that good season I mean they're the preseason pick to win the Big 12 and can be hosting in the NCAA tournament uh just like they did a season ago but then take that a step further and make it to the second weekend of the tournament in addition to that and hopefully you you end up with a high enough seed that you avoid that Penn State matchup in the second round but they get witch state or or did earlier this week as well and then upcoming um they go to the Marquette tournament where they get at number 24 Marquette so that'll be this weekend certainly one to watch there and then uh other fall Sports KU soccer they're off to a two- win one loss two draw start for the Nate Lee era taking on Vanderbilt tonight before returning home to kick off Big 12 play against Iowa State on Thursday September 12th that'll be over at Rock chock Park that'll do it for this episode of Locked on j-hawks you can find our show anywhere you get your podcast including on our YouTube page k Illinois preview tomorrow see you then