AFC South Preview: Texans Next Step, Jaguars Bounce Back, and Will Richardson or Levis Breakout?

hello and welcome back to a brand new episode of the Janar show today I am going to be previewing the AFC South with Jackson McIntyre who spent multiple years at PFF helped build PFF to what it is now he specializes in coverages quarterbacks receivers I'm glad to have you on yep thanks for having me man appreciate it this AFC South division there's a lot of teams in here that are very competitive the Titans had a big off season the co are expecting a leap from Anthony Richardson CJ shroud and the Texans are now the biggest threat to the to the Chiefs in the AFC at least one of them and then of course the Jaguars after collapsing last year people are hoping can maybe bounce back this year what is your first initial thought when thinking about the AFC South this year uh I think it's got to start with the Texans um you know there's there's a lot of potential from other teams I mean we we don't know how Anthony Richardson's going to look we know what kind of Step if any will Levis will take so you know if if they take a huge step then this this could be a complete dog fight but just looking at it from what we know it's it's the Texans division to lose um I do I I'll get more into the Jaguars in a bit but uh I think the Jaguars are probably the odds on second team or most likely to if it's not the Texans that win the division I think it would probably be the Jaguars um that might be a hot take after last year but I'll I'll yeah detail that a bit more later but uh yeah I mean we've got four quarterbacks who could all be studs they've all got great arm Talent they've all got that uh that rocket arm that really puts pressure on defenses and um obviously stoud right now has seen the season with the most success so far but um yeah it's it's a year-to-year league so things can change real quick this entire offseason I've been going back and forth on almost all these teams the Texans they made such a splash off season and I know they're by Far and Away the favorites but if you try to talk yourself into one of these two into one of these four teams long enough you can find at least a line of reasoning for why they can be the surprise of the division maybe they can win the division that goes for the Colts uh Titans and the Jaguars the Titans are more of a long shot there's a ton of projections that go into them winning the division but ultimately after all these think pieces that I've had on all these teams It All Leads back to the Texans it's just like you can't bet against what they proved last year and the strides they made this off season and we can start off with the Houston Texans and overview their offseason offense and defense and I want to start on the offensive side of the ball the the major move they made was acquiring Stefan Diggs they now have him Nico and tank Dell Dalton shows the tight end this is one of the most electric offenses in the NFL how do you think that the pairing is going to work with their passing attack yeah so personally I love it I I one of my favorite things that a front office can do for a quarterback is trading for that stud receiver we've seen time and time again that trade uh ele in a quarterback's career um eagles with AJ Brown uh Stefan digs ironically to Josh Allen uh Tyreek Hill Tua um etc etc the list goes on and on and I think that adding Diggs to this wide receiver room that already had uh obviously Nico Collins and tank Dell who are two very unique receivers that contrast well I think that when you when you focus on that element where where Nico's kind of like that bigger physical stronger receiver and then tank Dell is like that burner over the-top beater and then you work in Diggs who has kind of a blend of like that allaround route Runner separator um I I think that the I know his his production started to dip a bit last year but I I think he's he still digs um obviously the the yardage won't quite reflect what we saw a couple years ago from him just with the the crowded receiver room but um I think the three of them all having like that that Niche fact skill factor is going to really help this offense they didn't have a guy who they could really trust to get open on a 10 yard dig or on find the soft spot in the zone I mean like Dell and Collins did that sometimes but Diggs is that guy who does that all the time and working that in again to the other skill set is is going to be fun so all of these receivers compliment each other so well Stefan digs has lost some athleticism he's not the same deep threat that he once was but Nico and Tang Del that's what they're there for and when thinking about how this receiving room is going to look like and the statistics of it do you think that Stefan digs leads this team in receptions just because he's going to be open on those intermediate routes so much yeah I I think that it's going to be Dell as the third guy um I think the question there between Diggs and Collins a lot of that is familiarity with uh you know there's there's already that chemistry with with Collins whereas Diggs and stout are going to be working on that so I think right now I'd go receptions digs yardage Collins but I mean that's a we're we're tossing up things up there it's it's I don't think that's there's not a lot of confidence in that so if anything goes wrong for this offense from the passing attack uh perspective what do you think it's going to be do you think it's going to be diggs's personality that kind of gets in the way of everything or do you think him being on a on a one-year provate deal this is a situation where he's going to be on his best behavior and not really give too much push back to what's going on I don't think so I I I think if something goes wrong it was probably the offensive line didn't hold up or there were injuries to either the line or the receiver receivers um I don't think that there's just going to be a scenario where the line holds up the receivers are healthy Stout is healthy and the pass game doesn't work so I I would be shocked if if something like that happened it's hard to find holes on this team but when looking at their offense the one thing that does kind of concern me is just their rushing attack last year they were 30th and in rush dvoa they uh ran the ball 52% of the time on first down which is a Bobby slowick uh Habit that I think should regress this year given how much talent uh you have at the receiver receiving room and given the fact that passing on first down is just the easiest down for quarterbacks to pass on I feel like their rushing attack even by getting joe Mixon I I don't know if Joe Mixon at this point in time is such a huge up grade over Devin Singletary to me they are very similar yeah uh first shout out Bobby slowick a former PFF guy there um so yeah Joe Mixon is bad he's been bad for a while um so one thing that I've been working on the last few months um is an A statistic called RBIs it's running back impact score and essentially what it the I set out to try to find a metric that can isolate a running back's play from the stats so from yards uh touch whatever fantasy casual based stats so what this looks at is it looks at M Taco's Force per attempt it multiplies that by 10 to get that into a comparable number to yards after contact per attempt where I'm essentially just taking those two stats and then subtracting half of the Yards before contact per attempt sorry this is kind of mathy here but oh it's all good the the idea here is to take those three things and the reason we're subtracting The Yards before contact is because guys who are uh blessed with more yards before contact whether whether that be scheme or a good offensive line there's there needs to be some type of stabilizer there for the yards after contact there's a natural momentum Advantage if if you're able to get downhill before contact at a higher rate just naturally you're you're going to be falling forward with more momentum more often so um what so by only looking at those three things we're literally just taking M tacle Force per attempt we're taking yards after contact that's being stabilized by yards before contact a bit and then the final number ends up being between a scale of typically two and 6.5 Devin hn was kind of like that massive outlier where he just had this insane season last year in Miss tackles forc as well as yards after contact uh I don't know if when we'll see that again but um so the average the mean for this score is about a 4.05 or four and the last two years Joe Mixon sat at a 3.0 which is in the bad area or borderline very bad realm for this stat and then a 3.1 the following year so it's to me what I like this metric for is it's kind of like a washed meter like is this guy washed for like let's like looking at Derrick Henry right um like someone who maybe has a down year and the fantasy Community or just fans are wondering if he's you he's pushing 30 or might be 30 now and people start to wonder like has he lost a step and what this metric can do is you can say well he was still making guys miss he was still hover like two years ago Dereck Henry was out of 5.0 which is in great territory last year he was out of 4.9 which is still right there and so what that says is he was still making the same guys miss he was still getting the same yards after contact but if the yardage isn't aligning then we're really just looking at a scheme or offensive line problem there and when it's bad like a Joe Mixon bad who is really not the best he's been throughout his career is kind of average and he's been that he stays healthy he gets that massive volume and it produces these Gody touchdown numbers sometimes and and big yardage numbers and the fantasy Community loves him and you see his name in the second third round typically and and it Hypes him up but he's not a guy that's gonna come in and like ignite a run game um Damen Pierce was someone who two years ago was excellent in the RBIs score last year fell off a cliff uh the running back position is just super volatile year to year um and one guy who I'm like kind of keeping my eye on is Cam Acres who miraculously has two times now come back in like a six-month span from popic or torn Achilles and he a couple years ago he had a pretty solid RB score in 2022 for the Rams and he was at a 4.1 I believe which is I mean if he can stay healthy he's he's been popping in preseason he's made some spectacular plays already and I just I don't know how how many Joe Mixon 20 carries for 60 yard games the Texans are going to put up with until they start giving other guys opportunities um so yeah I would agree um after that long-winded answer that yeah the the running back room is the weakness on offense right now when do you plan to to release this yeah so I've already I released it a few days ago actually um I posted this massive thread with 25 plus visuals in it um there's all kinds of comparisons across different players um I've got a tool here where I can kind of just play around compare players together and uh look right now I only have uh data back to 2021 and then I just last night finished uh or the one I posted was only for players with over 100 carries now as of yesterday I have lower volume guys of 40 or more carries too but um that one I haven't released yet but the initial like big thread with bunch of visuals and stuff is is on my Twitter right now great so if you guys listen to that go check that out I'mma drop his Twitter in the description fantasy is so much different than than real life football because I've been a big fan of Isaiah Pacho I'm not sure where he ranks on your RBIs a score meter I like Isaiah peo a lot but I see in fantasy drafts people are taking him within the top three rounds and I'm not too familiar with how these scores work but Isaiah Pacho last year was one of the least explosive backs in the league and he his stats were more based off of volume rather than efficiency so I'm not the highest on Isaiah Pacho I think he's a solid player but I don't think he is a great running back just to just to um summarize that I think Jaylen Warren is spectacular yeah so he was a 4.1 last year which is just slightly above the mean of about a 4.0 I my cut off was kind of the 3.6 to 4.4 range is considered average with 4.0 being the mean 4.5 4.9 is good five to 5.5 is is very good and then 5.5 to six great six and above is Elite uh and to your Jaylen Warren Point um yeah he was I believe he was like the second highest guy of the last three years let me just verify that real quick yeah so he was a second he had a 6.4 last year um yeah Devin hn was number one with again just like the most insane numbers you'll ever see from uh and he hit that 100 carry cut off too I mean like it I want to say I would want to say like oh was low volume it was kind of low volume but it's kind of that area where like well it's also kind of not low volume and he's still did it in over 100 carries so yeah um yeah and then shout out to James Connor who had this insane bounce back last year too he he jumped his RBIs from uh I think it was like let me just uh so in 21 he was a 4.3 above average 22 he was a 3.7 a little below average and then 2023 he 6.3 third highest like just insane and it show the the r attack was Elite down the stretch it did and like one thing about this this analytic that I've noticed is like it matches with the ey test so often like when you CU you when you see these Miss tackles when you see these yards after cont that these guys are doing on a regular basis like you're taking like a mental subconscious note of that and then you see that pop in the RBIs and you're like oh yeah like because it's only looking at Miss tackles forced and yards before or yards after contact and those are like things that we're so often just uh like that's what we see that makes us think like oh this running back is good right so and it is essentially the only isolated things that a running back does that can be measured to the running back and not two other factors so that's interesting and I think it's much needed when uh I don't think uh the basic stats tell the entire story because so much is relying on scheme and there are some guys that play behind bad offensive lines that are still able to produce and they're there are the ones that produce because of volume or because of scheme but that's all to say that Joe Mixon isn't changing the Texans rushing attack yeah and that's that is still a big worry along with their offensive line last year was the fourth most injured unit in the league but even when they're fully healthy laramy tono is an Elite pass protector he's not an elite run blocker uh Kenyan green is coming back from injury but he really struggled as a rookie their Center juice Scruggs is below average like this if there's something that's going to stop the Texans this year from reaching their ceiling given that they have the the one of the toughest schedules in the league it's that their offensive line might not be able to hold up with opposing front fours and they're not going to be able to run the ball all that much so this is very much a one-dimensional offense yeah yeah the that's it's going to be the o line and uh a running back coincides with o line for production so yeah it's very much if if those guys are moving bodies then then we'll see the running back guy committee looked fine or maybe it's not a committee maybe it is the Joe Mixon show again um but yeah yeah no fully agree and Joe Mixon played in an offense similar to this I mean he's gonna get light he got light boxes in Cincinnati and he still wasn't able to be efficient so I don't know how that's going to look with uh Houston I think it's going to look the same if not worse on to the defensive side of the ball uh what worries you about the defense oh um again really just injuries I I think that uh I mean they need Derrik Stingley to stay healthy he has been a absolute stud in the preseason and to his career to this point when he's been healthy but um I mean they need him healthy they need denil Hunter healthy who big signing from Minnesota there um upgra they lost Jonathan ER to ironically Minnesota and then replaced him with denil Hunter who was a two three years older but better player um so that's a big upgrade uh Will Anderson had a spectacular rookie season and typically you see those athletic edges take that take if they have a productive year one they take a big step in that year two so it's kind of scary what they could have there with Hunter and uh and will Anders Anderson so um they also o brought in uh um what's Aziz aler former uh 49er worked with Deo Ryan's there so there's some uh famili familiarity there and uh that's going to be fun he's a good coverage linebacker um nowadays linebacker all about being good in coverage uh obviously we don't really see those those big run stuffers out there much anymore maybe in some base but really Nicholls base now and whatever it's a whole another topic but um I also like the Jeffrey okuda signing it's a low lowrisk high upside um I've always been a fan of him he hasn't really panned out yet injuries have screwed him over and he hasn't really developed too much but I I'm a sucker for those let's sign that top five pick who's keeps getting hurt and maybe he doesn't get hurt this year for a low low contract and uh see what happens so I I think that's one of those and uh yeah I I don't really see they did lose Blake Cashman um replaced him with with Al Shyer uh might be a slight downgrade Blake Cashman was an excellent coverage linebacker last year flies all over the field fast um very versatile so we'll see how that goes but um I think that kind of changes that Sher signing to instead of like a boost it's more of a lateral move yeah so yeah I I think their defense will be good though the heart of this defense is going to be that defensive line they rushed for last year 79% of the time uh they didn't Blitz much you know they they trusted they they just had more people in the secondary to cover up space and I think will Anderson's taking another leap and I think theil Hunter with him that could be one of the best Edge du in the league and I love the signing of fakazi who in Jacksonville and throughout his career with the Jets I mean when I seen him on the Jets he's an elite run Defender and he's just a big body to stuff the run this was already a great and Elite run defense they were first and success rate against the run my only question mark really about this defense I think it's going to be great but my only question mark is just the corner opposite of Derek Stingley the the Jeff okuda signing is one of those swing picks and you could see that kind of it's there's a trail of that within this defense because they signed Jeff Auda they also they also have CJ Henderson to for former top picks and that's the only question it's like opposite of Stingley can they hold up can they be serviceable in what Deo Ry wants to run I love the rookie that they drafted I think it's Kamari Lassiter but he's more of a nickel at this point he can play some snaps on the outside though I I think that's just the biggest question mark with this team is who's going to be the next guy on the secondary to step up because I thought Stephen Nelson last year was pretty solid for them throughout the year he retired right yeah I I don't know if he retired if he's just not on the team right now but he's not on a roster I think I saw that he retired like abruptly or something I might be misremembering that but yeah I wouldn't be surprised yeah um yeah Lasser uh I mean rookie Corner can be tough but uh liked him LSU SEC guys a lot of potential or a lot of uh experience so yeah we'll see what's your record prediction for the Texans this year yeah I have them at let me see here I jotted some notes for that have them at 11 and six okay I have them at the same exact record yeah that's what I have or they have the highest predicted record for this division for me so I've seen throughout the the um throughout the SE throughout the offseason I should say people are predicting the Texans to be number one in the AFC CJ I take that mvp leap and I think those things are possible but when you look at their schedule it's very tough and I I don't know where the 13 wins are going to come from in this schedule 11 feels safe and I wouldn't even be surprised if there were 10 and seven team that won the AFC South again because this schedule is really really tough yeah there's a stretch there uh I'm just trying to see if I can find it here where I was going through and I was like damn like this is a tough stretch um see they have uh yeah Packers on the road Colts at home Jets on the road lions at home Cowboys on the road yeah I mean that's that's five tough games some tough road games in there too um I mean we'll see about Indie if they're tough but the other four are um yeah that's a gauntlet I have the same the year too actually yeah well it's tough Jags yeah Jags Dolphins Chiefs Ravens yeah all all back to back to back yeah this is one of the toughest schedules in the league uh we both had them at 11- six onto the team that collapsed last year the Jacksonville Jaguars it's it's funny because in 2022 the last nine games they had seven wins in 2023 the last nine games had six losses so this is a tale of two different seasons one where they were a surprise and the other one where they completely collapsed are you down on the Jaguars like everybody else is or do you have optimism for them this year so I I think that the reason people are down on them is I think there's a perception that they lost Calvin Ridley Trevor Lawrence just got paid and he hasn't necessarily to this point I like that contract personally but I think it's kind of a growth contract like we expect more Improvement here to justify those numbers and I think they'll get that but I think people view this like well Lawrence is paid Ridley's gone they ended the year on a bad note last year where where is the excitement and to me I think this is a hot take but I think that this might be the best the best weapons of Lawrence's career and I mean Brian Thomas Jr if he's 63 runs a 43 340 and it's not like a um oh what's his name the uh Chargers signed him this year um another really tall fast receiver um DJ Char DJ CH it's not like DJ CH he Brian Thomas Jr has a full route tree he is extremely experienc if if we didn't have like a three-headed monster ahead of him this year with a with a Dun Harrison and uh and who am I BL neighbors yeah so if we didn't have those three guys ahead of him like he's easily a top 10 top 12 pick there were some issues with I think his shoulder some laum injury or something but like he went 23rd and you don't see that from a guy with his production and his measurables he's a absolute monster and I Ridley is good but Ridley did not play good last year he was responsible for so many drops Trevor Lawrence was tied for third last year in BigTime throws which is a PFF stat that essentially tracks um throws that beat coverage downfield throws that beat the coverage and throw open the wide receiver and uh I mean there were so many Endzone drops and 30 40 yard plays that maybe they weren't con like classified as drop but where Ridley just failed to make a play Z Jones had a handful as well there's like a minute and something long Twitter cutup of just Jaguars receivers not getting their feet down to make simple catches and I think a lot of that is like luck like he was just on the bad luck Spectrum last year but then also Ridley just rusty I don't we'll see like maybe he just needed that year after the whole gambling incident to get right again and maybe he does he he was really good in Atlanta Maybe he has that get right year with Tennessee now but I view Brian Thomas as an upgrade there and lence needs with those guys with those big arms need that guy over the top that can make a play they signed Gabe Gabe Davis too so now they've got with Christian Kirk as well so they've got like three guys that are known for taking the top off the defense but Brian Thomas should in theory be the guy who does everything and I think that's going to prove to be an insane value pick at 23 I believe not not making a Justin Jefferson comparison here but I it could be kind of similar to that where Justin Jefferson was like a the 22nd 23rd pick or something like that too um and I get why those guys went ahead of him I mean I wouldn't have taken him over any of those other receivers but is sometimes you just get a year where these you an insane stack of talent comes in all at the same position and you know it it's how the board Falls but yeah I uh I think that he's got a weapon Improvement this year I think that their defense is more or less the same they added uh they added Eric Armstead uh like that signing they I think they needed a little more size interior was really yeah and uh they traded late last year for Ezra Cleveland Minnesota guard um he's uh he didn't play too well for Jacksonville he was better for Minnesota maybe he just needed a little bit of time there but uh he was actually a left tackle at Boise State back in the day a second round pick really athletic he the only reason he was kicked inside was because Minnesota had uh darasa and Brian O'Neal at the edges and and they're really good bend tackles so they slid him inside and I I've always thought that he could potentially kick the tackle if he ever needed to he's probably more of a natural tackle than a guard anyways um but it's good to have that versatility um yeah I I think that Lawrence is gonna take a step I think that he's gonna develop chemistry with Brian Thomas as the year goes there Gabe Davis is a solid third guy to have there I think he's the third guy uh some people think he's like one or two and I think that's insane but um Christian Kirk solid number two so Evan Ingram good tight end I I I have them at uh should I go with the record now that I have yeah yeah yeah um I have them at 10 and seven I okay yeah I I think that they're gonna surprise some people I think what you said basically goes hand inand with my point is that the Jaguars just makes sense this year the receiving CT just makes sense everybody fits each other's play Styles correctly uh Gabe Davis was brought in a little bit of an overpay but he is the sacrificial X for them he's just going to run routes down the field so Christian Kirk and Ingram can get their targets in the in the intermediate areas and Brian Thomas Jr can also do that as well they just have more versatility this year versus last year where Z Jones was playing the X and that's when Calvin Ridley really played well but then when Z Jones was at the lineup and Ridley had a slide out there against press coverage he really struggled and that is not where he's best used and the Jaguars didn't have any depth at wide receiver to move Ridley back into favorable matchups or positions or off the line of scrimmage so I think this year the Jaguars have more of that versatility I think there's a scenario where the offensive line just improves because of Mitch Morris's veteran experience and his communication skills that's what still worries me about this unit though cuz I don't think that they did anything for it to improve cam Robinson is someone that uh nobody talks about like that but he's kind of make a break for the Jaguars they lost six of the eight games that he didn't play and when he was out there at left tackle he really stood his ground well and Trevor Lawrence I I think he gets underrated at this point in time because CJ shout just had his breakout year but I don't think that there's a gap between CJ and Trevor Lawrence and how I view them I think it's very similar it's just Trevor Lawrence I I think is in a worse position and he makes up for a lot of the deficiencies in the Jaguars offense like the offensive line they were the 27th ranked offensive line Accord in PFF last year but they were only fourth in pressure rate and that's because Trevor Lawrence is getting the ball out quick and he's masking a lot of those efficien uh deficiencies um you talked about your RBIs scores for running backs and I'm just curious to where Travis Ean ranked in them because this past season he was 42nd in rushing yards over expectation 41st in rushing EPA 38th in rushing yards after contact per attempt and he was stuffed on 25 and a half perc of his runs which was the second highest rate so he didn't have much of a chance but he also didn't do much do much with the chances that he got as well yeah he actually ranked pretty high uh he was a 4.8 last year um I've I don't have off the top of my head what what those uh forc Miss tackles uh numbers were there uh let me see if I can get that yeah I don't think I'll be able to have it on hand in so you think etn is is one of the better backs he's being held back by this unit yeah so he was a yeah 4.8 which is uh get pretty close to uh very good so good is that 4.5 to 4.9 range a very good is is that 5 to 5.4 range 3.4% uh Miss Force Miss talle rate or or 0.24 so that's very high I believe the mean for that was um like 0.17 and so to be at 0.24 there is uh yeah one out one out of four tackles he's he's forcing a miss you know it's pretty incredible which when people hear it like that a lot of times they're like huh like 20 only 24% of the time he made someone Miss but like that's really good like guys are not out there forcing a Miss tackle on every carry and like there's a lot of people who I think like would guess like the for a good forcas tackle would be like one or like 0.9 or something like that and like that's just not reality um so yeah yeah this the NFL I have the same record prediction as you at 10 and seven I think the Jaguars are right there with the Texans and I don't think it's out of the roomm a possibility that they switch places this year and I've went back and forth fourth on it where last year the Jaguars were the darling of the AFC competing with the Chiefs and there were some roster holes that got overlooked and we went over the Texans you know they have some holes they are they are they have some great top end talent but there are also some hes on the roster and it's not out of possibility that this year the Texans can be that darling that regresses because their schedule is so tough and the Jaguars uh take their place I really like the defense too going from Mike Caldwell to Ryan neiel I thought Ryan neelon did a good job in Atlanta last year and they're making it a point of emphasis to bring in physical corner so they can press at the line that's a style that neelen wants to bring on the defense side of the ball and I'm expecting another leap from Trayvon Walker I still don't think that he's hit his ceiling just yet and he's improved every single year and then with the addition of Armstead I think this team is a very complete team especially on defense because I think on all three levels the defensive line the their their linebackers and the secondary I think that they have a lot of solid pieces and a good foundation yeah yeah they they really need that leap from Trayvon Walker I um I mean I I think like sure he's he's gotten better but he's still so far from where he should be for a number one pick so like we don't we don't just want him to get better we need him to take a superstar leap to feel like that pick was worth it um is he kind of liking like the javian Clowny range of first overall picks I'd say much lower so far I mean I don't I don't think he's really I I'd say he's a League average uh defensive lineman like I I don't think he's uh I I think you can make a case he might be slightly below average even he's not he doesn't really get pass rush pass rush wins um he's got all the tools to put it together but um I mean yeah I I I think there's a lot of of unblocked pressures that he has gotten some uh statistics for that don't necessarily correlate to highlevel wins per se but um yeah I I'm still very much uh skeptical on on his Outlook I think that they also need Tyson Campo who they just paid a lot of money to and he's he's a solid corner he had some games where he got cooked for entire games last year and he he's got the talent but I I think it was a kind of similar to that Lawrence contract where you're paying a guy for expected Improvement but I think that is a huge gamble at the quarterback position and it it could work out but I would not have given him that much money based off of the tape that we have so so your optimism on the Jaguars is on Trevor Lawrence and and Brian Thomas Jr and what he can be I think they have some good defensive pieces but um I don't think their defense per se is like going to carry them or win them games they have some guys that can put it together and change that but yeah and I think Armstead was a big signing for them um but yeah I'm uh wait and see on the defense is kind of my Approach right now I have the same record for the Jaguars at 10 and seven and I have them finishing second in the division it seems like so far we're kind of on the on the same pathway with our predictions for these teams yeah the next team the Indianapolis Colts what is your expectation for them this year do you feel like they're being a little over hyped Anthony Richardson is expected to take this this uh monstrous leap um I I don't know if your record prediction is like eight nine wins that's kind of my vicinity for it let me see I so I had the Colts at nine and eight um maybe a little optimistic um I but they're so tough because I think the word expectation implies that we can expect something and we have no idea what to expect with Anthony Richardson like he has played such like I I don't have the number on the top of my head but the amount of games he started since high school is so small and he played four games I believe last year four maybe four and a half um I think it was four and and he looked good and it was I was surprised he looked so good I did a uh for I wrote a piece up for PFF um before the NFL draft the 2020 what was that 2023 NFL draft Yeah on breaking down those top four QBs so was it was Bryce young stad Anthony Richardson and will Levis on how they played against two high coverages or two two high pre- snap coverage looks because those are the coverage looks that the game has been completely changed to and teams are taking out that extra box Defender and putting an extra man in coverage and what it does so kind of Vic fangio well it really started with Nick Sabin and then it went to Kirby Smart took it to Georgia then all of college pretty much plays it and then now it's made its way to the NFL as as almost everything starts in college and then makes its way to the NFL eventually but um uh yeah Vic fangio brought it in uh uh Brandon Staley it's the majority of the league now runs some variation of two high coverages it you can rotate anywhere you want you can come down to cover three you can stay in quarters cover six whatever it is such a good shell to disguise coverages from and it's also so tough to read as a quarterback because I believe last year like 44% or so of pass or just of yeah of pass plays pre- snap looks were too high shells coverages and so it's become a something where we because it's so prevalent in the NFL now we need to evaluate how college quarterbacks played against those same looks in college because it's not just a well how' they do against cover three or how they do against cover four because it cover three from a single high pre- snap shell is very different than cover three from a uh to high shell priest snap because typically you'll have a safety rotating down and there's all kinds of different rotations involved and St like there's just so much added Nuance to it that we need to look at that and so Anthony Richardson and will Levis really struggled in college against two snap or two high uh pre- snap shells uh strad and Bryce young both were spectacular against them and so I I was a little bit I was I was cautious about Anthony Richardson he had a lot of good tape and I understood how limit uh experience he had there and it was pretty expected that he would struggle against more advanced coverage shells like that and then he did really well against them through four games last year he was standing in the pocket he had some mistakes he had some misses but he was making like like tight window throws very tight window throws with like heat on the ball like there was like a cannon missile coming out of there and hitting like a one foot window beating an outstretched defense like it was really impressive some of those throws and unfortunately we didn't get to see whether or not he could do it over the course of the whole season and then he's had he's kind of been up and down in Camp and obviously that pick six in the preseason and there's there's a lot of reasons to be cautious about him but there's also a lot of reasons to not be and I I think that it's we can't really expect what going to happen with the Colts because we don't we don't know like if he's it's all on Anthony Richardson they are they are a good team they have an elite o line I was actually I was looking at their draft slots recently for where their o line went their o line has been together for so long and they're all Heavy Investments I mean so Ryan Kelly was a 2016 first round pick Center still their starting center uh Quin Nelson 2018 fifth sixth pick something like that um so that's what six years for him yeah eight years for Ryan Kelly uh Braden Smith was then taken that same draft as Quinton Nelson in the second round he's still there um and then uh what's his name the central Michigan guy uh um they have Bernard Raymond Raymond yep yep Raymond yeah so that was he was a 20 22 guy a third round guy but like they are homegrown studs like you could make a very strong case they have the best offensive line in the league um they've got weapons Josh DS is underrated slot guy obviously Michael Pitman I like Adon Mitchell a lot um he's he's got some rumored personality stuff maybe that was just a hit piece I don't know but um really good athlete really really good athlete and there's obviously uh like running back is is a stud position for them um I I I don't know if if if Anthony Richardson plays bad this year it is all on him like I don't see and but it's it still could be a thing where it's like well he played bad but we're not out on him because he has so limited experience so it's a really tough tough one there because it you got to give him time you do but if Al if he gets hurt again then what do you do because he hasn't really shown that he's your guy but he hasn't shown he isn't but he's shown he could be elite so it's a real yeah go ahead that's the worst case scenario with ar is that in week one he had a knee and ankle injury he had a concussion in week two and then after uh week four he needed to repair shoulder he got soier shoulder surgery and then he was out for the season worst case scenario would be he get gets hurt I really I'm really hoping that he stays healthy because I'm a big believer in his ceiling I I I don't think that what he has and what he possesses from a talent perspective is is normal I think it's really rare he is just an absurd version of a quarterback like Cam Newton but I think Anthony Richardson even has a kind of more zip on the ball and his passes than he's faster too he's like he I've been saying all offseason uh like fantasy-wise he might have the most upside ever as a fantasy quarterback because he can get those passing numbers and he's big like those goal line touchdowns he's like he's he's basically Derk Henry with Josh Allen's arm last um you know the Colts they ran rpos 19% of the time and I think that in the preseason we've seen a lot of that with Anthony Richardson and I think he's ran it really well the the first drive against the Bengals and I know he had the pick six but looking back at the pick six it really wasn't concerning to me I thought it was more of a miscommunication on the tight end not being in the right spot and I really believe in Anthony Richardson but this is the other thing is that in order for the Colts to reach their ceiling and with all due respect I do think their ceiling is a nine- win team Anthony Richardson has to play goddamn well and he has to be more up than down and for this being his rookie season technically I think he's going to have es and flows I think maybe you know he'll have some games where he flashes but he'll have some games where he's not the best and I think that's totally fine because last year he was 45th out of out of 49 quarterbacks in Target rate past 10 yards per Sports info Solutions four game sample size but even the preseason we kind of see the spottiness and his accuracy and um that's why the coach to I feel like they're one of those teams that are a year away it they're here right now they're going to be good competitive they're going to be a tough out but they're a year away and I don't even think it's mostly because of the offense I think it's because that secondary is just so bad I don't trust secondary at all I think if Anthony Richardson plays and I I agree about the secondary um yeah I mean and Kenny Moore is is a stud but yeah it's a def defense is going to be we'll see uh but I think that if Anthony Richardson plays like he did last year for those four games and builds off some of those issues but if he plays like that for 17 games I think they can shatter nine and8 like I think they could be like like if he's that guy like they could easily be like a 11 and 16 if wow if he's playing like that like it's but it's just the range of outcomes is so wide yeah I mean that makes so that makes a lot of sense I mean if AR is one of like the 15 best quarterbacks and I can I can totally see it but um just based off his injury history is there also not some cause for concern you know not in the fact that he's going to get hurt again but going from playing four games to now playing 17 games not that he'll miss the entire season but can I expect him to miss like three games I I think that's that's reasonable yeah I would hope that he's a little more ADV ver to contact this year um I mean he's got the body to take the hits but that doesn't mean we want him taking the hits right so there's like that finding that healthy medium there uh he did have that whole shoulder thing preseason where or uh in a mini camp actually where he wasn't throwing because he it was the same shoulder that he had had surgery on and was acting up and I mean he obviously he's he's fine now but that was a little concerning to me seeing that a surgically repaired arm is giving him uncomfortable or pain six months later whatever it was so we'll see but yeah I mean it's it's it is scary with guys like that like you want him to take the Russell Wilson approach but that mitigates some of what he does so well and some of what makes him special so yeah no doubt um when you look at how the Colts wins and losses were dictated last year they were 0 and six when they won the turnover battle they were s and0 when they when they won the turnover battle and um they were 1- seven when they trailed at halftime which makes sense because gammu is not a quarterback that can come back and and win games from behind so I think there's some optimism there for Anthony Richardson to be able to win those games where they're trailing more of often but I also do think that there is some room for regression for the turnover battle discrepancy I mean this was a team that if they didn't win the turnover battle they were winless and when they won it they were undefeated I think there's a chance for regression on on both sides and this team to me just feels like there's a lot of things um that you have to project on like for example I love latu I think he's going to be a star in the league but Samson ukam just just got injured and he was pretty solid for their defensive line last year and they do have uh pay still pay is pretty good he is Stewart yeah this defensive line ranked 29th in pressure rate on third down last year on Third and long but they finished fifth and Sack so they were still able to finish plays but if they lose ebukam they play in latu you still have Buckner Stewart who is more of a run Defender not much of a pass rusher and pay I more than you think so he's he's a nose but he's got a little he kind of reminds me of like lynval Joseph back in those Mike Zimmer Viking defense days where like yeah he's you 90% of his highlights are run plays but he's a he gets some push and he's got some moves for a big guy like like he's not he's not like a stud three Tech pass rusher but for a nose he's he's a pretty he's stable he's he's a solid pass rusher I'd say yeah no doubt he's he's an exceptional player but I look at the defensive line and while I like it I go to myself and I ask is it good enough to mitigate the problems on the back end because they're gonna have to overly compensate for how terrible their secondary is going to be the only team in the league that that um opponents targeted their number one receivers more against were the cowboys the Colts opponents threw 29% of their passes to receivers designated as number one wide receivers second to only Dallas so this is a team that very much opposing teams understand we can Target the Outside Pretty routinely and that's where we're going to go with our passing attack so for me I like the Colts a lot but it does feel like there's a lot of projections going on here and while they couldn't be true to me I see nine and eight or eight- n um I I don't know if the Jaguars win 10 games and the Texans win 11 that the Colts win nine I think I'm more inclined to to say they'll be like an eight and N team this year even though I really like them but and I wouldn't be surprised if they make the playoffs and they shock people but there's just a lot of things that I I just don't know if I could project that far yeah uh Julian Blackman is is someone I was forgetting about he's he's pretty solid safety um on the back end there but um yeah there's there's points to attack um it's not going to be a a top five defense like they've been on the cusp of for the better half of the last four or five years or so uh it's kind of been what's held them together through tough times but um ironically now it's shifting a bit where the offense is where all the talent is and the defense is you're kind of holding your breath that it it holds together but um yeah yeah there's uh the shootout there's going to be some shootouts in those games and uh it's gonna be there's gonna be some fun Anthony Richardson moments in some high scoring games I think uh the last team we're going to preview the J the Tennessee Titans and it's the last team in the division they made a lot of free agent moves uh the Calvin Ridley Tyler Boyd Tony Pard Lloyd cushenberry JC leam they traded for lerus sne they signed a woer they signed quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams Sebastian Joseph day they made a lot of free agency moves how many are matter Ronald Darby's on the Jaguars oh yeah my bad he's on the Jaguars so the Titans made a lot of free agency moves they did a lot of things in the off season do you think that they win more games than they did last year given that Mike Vel is gone H how much of a Believer were you in Mike Vel elevating the floor of this team Mike Rael is falls into one of those coaching categories of like a Dan cample where there is value in that leader of men approach right like he galvanizes them he motivates them he pushes them in that right direction but strategically I don't think that either of them I think that uh Ben Johnson over in Detroit is really helping that uh he's really the offensive guy there and there is you do need that balance you need those guys who can lead men but I think that it kind of falls apart when you start to see some Talent drop offs I mean their their o line was a mess their uh their quarterback situation was Will Levis did show some stuff last year he made some big throws and he made some big mistakes as he did at uh back in college but he I think that obviously they are going all in they're not saying this is a rebuilding team they're trying they're trying to they're expecting improvement from will Levis and if it doesn't happen then we're not really going to see Improvement so it's it's very similar to the Anthony Richardson situation where you've got a a kind of a polarizing quarterback who has all the talent and he has made some spectacular throws he is just he needs to limit those mistakes and learn the fundamentals learn how to read the defense a bit better and they're I mean their receiver room now uh BR in Ridley as you mentioned and Tyler Boyd they've they're three deep four deep if you still believe in trayon Burks but um I think I'm out on that whole thing but me too yeah um obviously Hopkins still I think that similar to Indiana or Indianapolis like they it's all there for will Lis like it's there's no excuse the the o line is uh they invested in it they uh it still might be a concern but he's got the weapons and we should see an improvement the defense lerus sne was a huge signing um they did lose uh Aziz Al Shier um but yeah uh cushenberry very strong Center that they brought in um yeah I who I'm blanking on their first round pick this year Lam yes yes they're they're um that that should be a monster pick for them um yeah if if he's ready if he's if he's which I think he will be um but if he's playing well from day one I mean now you've got a solid o line good receivers not Elite there's not really he doesn't have that AJ brown or that Justin Jefferson but he's got three guys that can get open I still believe in Tyler Boyd I think I don't think he fell off yeah I think he's still gonna be like a solid three we'll see maybe maybe he did lose a step in a half there but um yeah Jeffrey Simmons huge fan of Jeffrey Simmons so defense should be solid is um yeah it's it's very similar to the col situation but I'd say a little lower upside just I think uh Levis is slight behind uh Anthony Richardson's do you believe in will [Music] I'm man who Define believe do you think that he can be good enough this year to where the Titans view him as like a Derek Carr like where the Raiders Raiders yes we like you know he's not a true franchise quarterback but he's youry a stop Gap yes yeah and like maybe if he takes another step then now he's your QB of the future yes I I think that there's a good chance for that I think he's gonna still make some mistakes and I think he has real upside he has franchise QB upside like he's got a Canon again and he can take the top off the defense and he drops some dimes downfield he puts velocity on the ball he's he has a really nice blend of touch and velocity when he's throwing downfield and he has balls like he will throw things into Tight Windows and when he hits when he hits those windows it looks spectacular and he had a handful of those last year he had a handful of those back in college um I mean it's really just limiting those mistakes yeah Will Lis last year fifth in Big Time throw percentage first in a DOT fourth highest percentage of plays that went for 20 plus yards only behind pie Stafford and shoud so he's a big play Waiting to happen he was fourth in draw percentage which speaks to his the lack of support around him and 43.2 percent of his pressures came from the left tackle spot which was the highest in the NFL he only tra he only Trail Joe burrow in the amount of pressures that were actually his fa that were actually that were on the offensive Line's fault I should say Joe Bro was number one with his offensive line I will say this um Brian Callahan excites me because he's an offense mind first time calling plays there's a question mark in that and he brought Bill Callahan over which is a legendary offensive line coach but I do want to temper the expectations of what this offensive line is going to look in the first year with Bill Callahan because Bill Callahan there have been thick stops where Callahan has taken over an offensive line group that on average the year before without him finished 16th in adjusted line yards and then the year after with him they finished 15th in adjusted line yards so the Improvement at first is never Monumental they don't go from 30th to top 10 it's incremental improvements and I think they did some things this off season to make sure that does happen like the JC lean pick and Lloyd cushenberry and hopefully uh their first round pick from last year the guard who um Peter scony he improves as well I think that the Titans this year the star of the show while the focus is on will Levis I think the star of the show is going to be on defense this defense is really a unit that excites me will a jerius Sneed who was shut down last year a wer when healthy and Roger mcra yeah mccre was one of the best nickels in the League last year and he's only getting better and um they have some good safety play I think quandre Diggs with the Mante hooker and Jamal Adams can be kind of like your big nickel he can be your linebacker and you don't trust him in coverage but you just trust him to go downhill and get some run stops because this linebacking core is the only thing that scares me with Jack Gibbons and Kenneth Murray who's been a bust to this point for the Chargers and I don't have much hope in him but this defensive line is really good with Simmons he's the star their second round pick to vandre sweat from Texas has been really good in preseason and training camp like this defense I think is going to keep them a lot of games and if offense yes and if their offense can just get enough then I think this is going to be a frisky team I don't I don't see the playoffs for them but I think the this is one of those you see them on your schedule you're like ah they're they're going to be a pain in the ass this week yeah they're gonna they're going to have some games where their offense is clicking and their defense is clicking and they're going to look really good and uh if they come out and put out do that the first couple games of the year um there's going to be a lot of uh talk around them I think um I think another interesting thing is their running back room um I mean they obviously they brought in Tony Pard who had a down year with Dallas um so going to RBIs for that um he his drop off was not he did drop off a bit but it wasn't nearly what the uh box score statistics indicated so in 20 21 I had him out of 4.7 which was good 2022 he was a 5.3 which was very good and then in 2023 he dropped down to a 4.2 which was still above average it but not nearly as uh big of a drop off as it would look if you're just looking at like yards per carry right touchdowns yards Etc um however comparing that to what Tai Spears who is one of my favorite players just because he has one ACL like what the hell is he doing out there doing all what he does with one ACL like that's so insane to me like I don't even the the way I understand an ACL to work I don't understand how he plays without one so obviously I don't understand how an ACL works very well but um I mean he yeah last year he was a 5.1 on RB which is in the very good category and you're I I think they had him listed uh they had Spears and Pard listed as co-starters which is interesting there's going to be a real committee um Pard I think did deal with some line falloff last year where his offensive line was not nearly as good as it was back in the day when he was splitting carries with Zeke um maybe some of that was that he uh was just more fresh as a change up back rather than as the bcow I think that that's less of a factor though I don't think that typically that matters too much but it might have some it might be some indicator for it but I think they're going to be a really fun one-w punch um they they can both be function as receivers they're they're very similar to in a deg in the sense Tai is a little more nasty Po's a little more finesse but spear still has that finesse element to his game too so I I mean it's going to be fun it's if one gets hurt they should still be good um yeah I I I think it's a really fun one twoo there what is your record prediction for them yeah so I have them at six and 11 um I think that the main thing there is their division games I was seeing myself almost every time go with the other team over them I think I gave them one against the Colts but 0 and2 against the Texans 0 and2 against the Jags and they don't have an easy schedule uh they play some tough teams um as does a lot of this division so yeah I I think that you kind of have to pick one of them to one of these teams to be The Underachievers and that most likely I I think it's going to be the Titans yeah we're just a game apart when it comes to the Titans and the Colts because the Colts you had them nine and8 you had the Titans at 6 and 11 for the coats I had eight and n and the Titans I think they're a seven- 10 team I can see six and 11 too this team like I said it's frisky it's going to be tough it's going to be a pain in the ass uh but a lot of things have to go right on offense for them it'll be really good and I don't know if Brian Callahan has shown us enough yet to have that faith that just going to be an excellent play caller for them yeah yeah it's that it's it's me leaning towards AR over Levis as who I am more excited about it's the offensive line of the Colts that I am way more confident in the Titans have all that potential not all that potential but they have a lot of potential on the line too but right now it's just potential whereas the Colts have this like structure that has been built like since Rome and so I I I really trust that unit there and I trust that Richardson is going to get a great shot at showing that he's the guy whereas I think Levis will get that shot but our final predictions for the AFC South uh I'll go first with um the Texans 11- six the Jaguars 10- seven the Colts eight- n and the Titans seven- 10 yep and then I've got uh the Texans at 11- six and the Jags as well at 10 and S the Colts at 9 and8 and the Titans at 6 and 11 so I want to thank Jackson McIntyre for coming on my show today the Jo Moran show to to preview the AFC South it was a very fun conversation make sure you guys check him out on his Twitter I'm going to drop the link in the description below make sure you check out his RBIs scores to look at which running backs are are actually good you know the these are Ball noer statistics right here to actually get ingrained in it and not just look at basic stats um he has a lot of great work too I've seen him on Twitter argue with Broncos fans over Bo Knick's preseason debut have you warmed up to b a little uh he he played better in that second game uh fundamentals were better that's what I was worried about in that first game was I mean he he's he's old he should have the fundamentals down and the footwork was incredibly sloppy seven in that second game he he hit a nice third down conversion underneath a Tampa 2 Defender very Bland Tampa two coverage but it was it was a good throw he had a nice Post in a uh uh right at I think they got to like the three yard line with it uh but other than that seven of nine throws were for five yards or less a lot of it was schemed I mean it it it was solid it's preseason uh let's see I am not nearly as optimistic as Broncos fans there but um yeah I I also do have a podcast coming up for the season it's going to be a 15 minute weekly recap for uh games a22 coverage analysis RBIs updates fantasy segment uh aiming for quick 15minute drives to work uh just recap of the week and then a quick look to the upcoming week but don't have a name yet but it will uh it'll be there for uh week one make sure you guys go check him out he might be redeemed with uh the bow Nick stuff week one when he faces Mike m Donald's defense which that's going to be a huge test so make sure you guys go check out Jackson and his Twitter down below thank you guys for watching and we'll see you guys next time