Fantasy Football Busts! Hayden's Least Favorite Draft Picks

Hayden's LEAST Favorite Pick In Every Round I hate the show I literally hate the show but guess what you the audience absolutely love it so we have to record it our least favorite pick in every single round of your fantasy football draft we'll call them landmines Hayden once again you're up this offseason yeah this is going to be one of my favorite shows of the year I'm not scared to compete like I said last time uh I did pretty good last year I'm not going to lie uh so we're going to try to be running that back Quinn Johnson was the thumbnail from the last one and my favorite part of last year's show my delicious long hair uh it needs to come back well call them the landmines Hayden do you share that feeling yeah I'm not scared to compete uh like you but the other thing to remember with this show is the these are deeply personal you were cosplaying theovon at this point last year my oh my have we grown up ever since then uh Hayden will be using underdogs ADP for this version just like our favorite picks in every round which is much more of a positive and optimistic show go watch both of those Down Below on the channel uh I will be referring in to all of the compiled home League drafts so ESPN Yahoo NFL CBS so on and so forth so again you get two different perspectives on each round Hayden we're going to go round one through I believe round 15 today so why don't you kick us off which player are you somewhat avoiding in round one even though we know that no matter where they fall you almost certainly would take them so the easy answer would be like puka or Marvin at the very last of of Round 1 the round those guys are far more likely to bust than Jamar Chase but Jamar Chase is drafted third fourth fifth overall and I like Justin Jefferson more I like Bree Hall more than Jamar Chase so I've not been drafting a bunch of them there's a couple reasons the first is Adam sher's kind of been like teasing this on his podcast and he finally went to Twitter on it and that's how you know he goes to TV he goes to Twitter and now he's starting to say this that his kind of do the Brian windhorse meme in that the Bengals don't want to negotiate in season for this contract they're also restrictive on their guarantees and then Jamar Chase hasn't practiced in a long time he's uh two years ahead of where uh he would be a free agent and he's already sat out a season in college so this is one of these contract standoffs that's a little bit more up in the air usually on the show we say nine out of 10 times contracts will not linger into the regular season most likely this won't either but he has not practiced in a long time there's been some other players coming off of hold dust it just do not look the same on top of that Joe burrow coming off his own wrist surgery he's throwing the ball he's most likely going to be fine but these are just like added elements to this risk profile and then if you look at the last two seasons for Jamar Chase he's averaged 87 yards per game with Joe bur I'm already removing the the Jake Browning games but with Joe burough 87 yards per game Justin Jefferson 105 Tyreek Hill 104 cidi lamb 92 even AJ Brown is at 84 so if I'm breaking ties give me the guy with a little bit less risk and right now Jamar Chase is just not practicing a major part of that is two years left in his contract versus the one- year left on CD lamb the one year left on BR iuk it's a hold in I mean he is there I know Chad o joso's also mentioned that Jamar Chase is not going to touch the field until he gets a new deal and we know the Bengals in their past other than the Joe burrow deal have been really strict in how they divvy up money and guarantees and it gets this point obviously you make that exception for Joe burrow you make that exception for Jamar Chase but then the next person comes along do you make the exception for them and again more exceptions you make the more and more people change the ways that you've done it before again this is such a difficult task doing it in the first round I will say rebs pointed this out jar Chase's air yards per Target have gone down from 12.9 as a rookie down to 9.1 and 8.6 yards down the field over the last two seasons and in fact he had a career-high 24.5% of his targets at or behind the line of scrimmage just from Joe burough last season we know it was a broken burrow we know what we got from Jake Browning but he is a bit of a microcosm of how much this bingles offense has changed from his rookie year up until until now I still think he has a wide receiver one season in him in the future but he's kind of the only one in this group that hasn't done that so far yeah I think I think really Jamar Chase is pretty much the reason why the NFL is adopted the two high shell coverages because when we were just starting the show out I mean it was just a cover three cont contest with Jamar Chase and T Higgins and they were dunking on everybody and now that's not the case so the a DOT comes down the explosive plays go away and that's more or less the reason why he's like not at 100 yards per game and he's still in like the 80s and I'm not expecting Jamar Chase to fully bust here but if I'm breaking the tie I think they I would rather have him like seventh eighth overall and I see sometimes they gets drafted third fourth overall the other change has been not just the vertical shots where he's been lined up he went from a slot rate of 14.3% as a rookie up to 28 % this past season so it's doubled and that's just with Joe bur on the field okay I don't want to spend too much time on the first round pick because you would take Jamar Trace at some point in round one let's go to round two then stake your claim plant your flag who are you avoiding Round 2 Drake London goes in the early part of the second round and I just haven't seen that level of wide receiver play out of them and I love Drake London was one of my favorite prospects USC guy the whole thing but last year wide receiver 26 in my man coverage composite score he was wide receiver 25 in PFF receiving grades he was wide receiver 58 in ESPN's open Score Mike Clay who we had on the show you guys by the way loved that Mike Clay episode wide receiver 16 in his projections I roll out my projections have him at wide receiver 14 and what I noticed with the Mike Clay projections is he still had the Falcons seventh in passing yards seventh in passing touchdowns Which is higher than I'm willing to give the Atlanta Falcons with Kirk coming off of his injury so I just think that Drake London's a a really nice player I think once you start getting to the top 15 I think I want to be a little bit more selective on the types of players I'm willing to draft especially on half PPR and then my last note here the Falcons this preseason they've uh used motion at the second lowest rate in in the NFL uh they're also second most in three wide receiver sets we've talked about this before when you are in three wide receiver sets it's a little bit harder to earn a Target because you have like legit Playmakers out there last year Drake London all this per stuff was benefited by not having a second wide receiver Kyle pittz wasn't the same either it's a rookie year for bejan Robinson so I think just like nitpicking is like a little bit of the target competition with some of the uncertainty with Kurt Cousins I would draft Drake London at the two3 turn on Underdog he's at the onew turn so I don't think I've literally drafted him a single time and I've done over a 100 drafts and I know that hurts you because you and I were some of his biggest Advocates coming into the NFL when people thought he was like uh Mike clone at best or just a contested catch type player he's not I mean even at USC you know he was really good after the catch 5.4 yards yeah after the catch per reception in the NFL because of Arthur Smith's downfield system it's been about three yards after the catch which is like 42nd out of 48 qualifying wide receivers it's one of those things that we just haven't seen it in a real dropback offense so far and we have seen it on teams that we thoroughly believe in uh as we talked about in the round one show that you all adored with Jaylen waddle and Nico Collins and they're going after this name and so if you want to attach yourself to something you've already seen before yeah go with those two names in my opinion rather than Drake London and I also listed like the 49ers wide receivers I just think have uh more of upside than than Drake London to so yeah when we I went back and watched our Kurt Cousins reaction video uh during like the free agency time period and we were like we're going to be so fired up to draft Drake London in the early parts of around three and I wish it was the case because I love Drake London but we've just gone a little too far okay these are the most Round 3 difficult picks of this video so let's continue on in this tough spot with round three Josh Allen another player I've adored over the years drafted a ton of elite quarterbacks but right now it's just the worst Supporting Cast uh because Steph Diggs is out of there from week eight on they had a new play caller they were 21st in neutral pass rate uh and I think the quarterbacks being slipped right after him have a better Supporting Cast for fantasy points uh in particular Jaylen Hertz his problem with his injury that should be gone away uh they're right now they they first in rpos in the preseason for Jaylen Herz play action game is back I think the offensive coordinator is just going to be better for the Eagles so I'd rather have Jaylen Herz than Josh Allen Patrick Mahomes if you guys watch any snaps in the preseason you got to be fired up with that Lamar uh Jackson he gets Mark Andrews back so I just think that the cliff between what used to be Josh Allen with the healthy step digs in his rushing ability versus the other crop of quarterbacks that Gap is really tightened and I don't want to be spending an early third round pick a middle third round pick on Josh Allen right now because Lamar Mark Andrews uh that stack at round four or five turn you get Kelsey or worthy with momes I'd rather have those guys I draft a ton to AJ Brown so I'd rather have Jaylen Herz so this is really just the system's probably not going to be as key and I love Josh Allen in the Red Zone but asking for 15 rushing touchdowns every year from a quarterback that's that's pretty dangerous well and the slight difference here is one he had probably eight rushing touchdowns in a five game span from week 12 to week 17 yeah last year which is just nutso stuff uh you sent me all these names ahead of time so in many of these instances not all of them but I was like I'm going to go to bat for my guy I'm going to get in his corner and try to make a case against all these players at this same time so I brought in retrie bars you know worksheet and research over at sharp football analysis to give us some weapons in our Corner uh Josh Allen set a new record for fantasy points scored inside the Red Zone last year the previous was Marshall Faulk back in the year 2000 but 26.5% of those Red Zone points came from just the one to two yard line okay if anyone and many of you did enjoyed our last show talking about preseason week 2 my tin foil theory is the addition of Ray Davis was meant to be the Damen Harris latavius Murray yeah impact that they've wanted inside the five inside the 10 inside the two yard line if Josh Allen isn't going to be scoring as many touchdowns inside the two yardline then immediately he drops from the 24 fantasy points that he scored last year down to 21 fantasy points which kind of hits and makes him equal to all the other names that are the Elite guys being drafted the position and then the other big difference is who who exactly do you think is going to be winning down the field like Steph digs obviously would do that Gabe Davis at times like for his faults would also have 40 yard touchdowns I don't know man I don't think that that's gonna be key on Coleman's game like maybe you can pitch me on Mack Hollins or mvs but I mean come on uh it's just like harder to find the explosives and I'm going to regress that regression or the Red Zone stuff and then all of a sudden you have a fine quarterback one but that elite elite asset I don't think's there this year well and he was the only true Elite quarterback last year again he scored 24 points Herz was at 22 per game Lamar was at 21.1 Dak was at 20.7 and those are the only guys that scored over 20 unless we want to count the The Legend that is Joe Flaco towards the end of the season him repeating that and being the only guy that you like truly need at the quarterback position is I think really difficult again but the Red Zone points Herz was like well well on Pace to do that before his injury uh so I I'd rather have Jaylen part of this reasoning is that Josh Allen going is the first quarterback off the board and this is the 12th pick of the third round Round 4 that takes us over into round four who is your name here right at the three four turn again is is Michael Pitman and another USC wide receiver that I'm uh fading your dipla I really do hate hate this uh but last year just was kind of the perfect situation for him the Colts had a 26% RPO rate uh which was by far the most in the NFL Michael Pitman himself had 30 Targets on rpos was very efficient on them this uh preseason you can already see the Colts are down to 18% RPO rate which is a meaningful dis uh difference there on top of that you add in Anthony Richardson at the goal line Jonathan Taylor he's gonna be back so I think this team's just gonna be a little bit more balanced than they were a season ago you have to be at least a little bit worried that ad Mitchell or Josh Daniels or the combination of of them just like they're really good and then all of a sudden you don't have to make the entire offense Michael Pitman like eight yard gains here so I think there's just like a lack of upside in the fourth round here and there's players like Josh Jacobs Peko uh Travis eten a couple upside up players like T Higgins uh Xavier worthy Rasheed rice that go in round four and I think I would rather just like a dream a little bit bigger when I know that the offense is going to look a little bit different uh because we're going from Gardner muu to Anthony Richardson you're making this even more difficult on yourself he's going as the 11th pick of the third round so once again you're double tapping this third round the wide receivers going after him as you mentioned Z flowers Amari Cooper T Higgins Rashi rice are the next four names I mean look I I loved Michael Pitman last year he was a flag plant for me it was a huge win for my draft Capital um but a big part of that was that he had played with Carson Wentz broken Matt Ryan Sam Ellinger and was like still putting up decent fantasy points we know that last year I mean he was quite good more of a volume sponge with Garner menu um he has had an 11.8 a DOT on like his minimal eight targets I think this preseason in comparison to it being right around eight the last two years yep I just want people to remember we love Shane styken um but Anthony Richardson just still changes a Shane styen offense because styen is willing to adapt to the type of passers and the type of players that he has and we saw this I I believe the same thing with anony Richardson at Florida when we talked about Ricky piol just for example he had like a 17 a DOT with ar and then a 10 yard a DOT the next year with whoever the hell was playing quarterback there so I don't know if I totally by other Skeptics out there of Michael Pitman they're saying well he's just a short to intermediate volume guy I believe he's going to be able to attack more Blades of grass and further down the field just because of the different type of quarterback that he's now attached to now does that equal more variance and not as much volume yes so I I get there's a bit of a given and take with that too yeah I think he's going completely bust here but I would rather have him like round five is kind of where I have him ranked so just a little bit too too aggressive and if you had to ask me would I rather draft Anthony Richardson or or Michael Pitman I'd rather just have Anthony Richardson if Michael Pitman goes crazy that means Anthony Richardson's gone absolutely nuts because we know that he's gonna get it done on the ground my brain is really workshopping some Ed I Mitchell takes right now but we'll put those on the back burner until I'm able to do a video okay before we move on all of you just our wonderful wonderful audience because you're so loyal to us we have a gift it is a pick them special for week one all you need is one yard one rushing yard from Bree Hall that's it but you must use promo code the show all one word or click the link in the description down below and be a firsttime depositor all these beautiful yellow and blue states that you see on the map you might not think you can play pick them guess what you can and if you sign up G with the link or promo code the show we will actually throw a 50% deposit match back to you up to $1,000 you're welcome join us the best way to prepare for your fantasy league is to draft on Underdog okay Hayden bring us here to round five Keenan Allen Round 5 uh there's just too many young wide receivers that go around him in round five Xavier worthy romad dun uh even Deontay Johnson I think has a little bit clearer of a path there last year stats were fantastic I also think it's so obvious that they were context related Mike Williams goes down Austin Eckler goes down Quinn Johnson couldn't step up uh Justin Herbert's not going to be extending plays so he just GNA throw the ball to Keenan Allen and kind of stay on Pace I think kayb Williams is gonna extend plays we've already seen that in the preseason if you guys watch them at USC you know this is true and I think when you start extending plays that's going to benefit the speedsters the downfield guys uh and I just don't think that the volume is going to be there for Keenan Allen there's a chance age 32 year 12 the age Cliff just really comes we've seen some some glimpses of that this preseason and the big concern right now the Bears are using two tight ends on like a ton of their plays so if romad dun eventually takes Keanan Allen snaps we're talking about a significant decrease in snaps and I think that this guy needs a bunch of volume because he's not going to be ripping off explosive plays so I think there's a lot of risk here I think the biggest risk is just romad dun has a chance to be special in this league and I think that Caleb Williams is not going to be satisfied just checking the ball down to Keenan Allen he's too Dynamic of a player and I think by the end of the year it'll be pretty obvious the ball has to go to DJ Moore and radun and not Keenan Allen I mean there are graphs out there by NDS that show that hey veterans start the season like this and then go down rookies start the season here and then go up and they basically cross pass on the way and really where we win our fantasy leagues is towards the end of the season and you have a couple names written down in the same round five of the likes of xaver worthy even a little bit later on you have Romo dun some younger players like Jaden Reed so on and so forth um Keen all going as a 10th pick of this fifth round this is so tough to wrap your brain around because we all know that in some ways Keenan defined fantasy football last year at the wide receiver position career-high 108 catches yeah 00 yards seven touchdowns that was despite missing four games he was even the wide receiver 12 a year before so again on the surface this feels weird many of the same notes as you just like we talked about in our preseason week two takeaways Shane Waldren runs a certain system and a certain styling of offense even with Seattle and having their wide receiver Trio last year he was 18th in 11 personnel usage at 64% you''ve talked about the three and two tight ends that he's used and I'm sure that'll come back later on this video too those guys play 350 plus s so uh he's had talented wide receivers in the past this is what he does and I just think it's inevitable especially with them not resigning Keen Allen long term that they Envision the future of their position DJ Moore romad dun and just as the season goes along facing out Keenan Allen and they they traded for Keenan Allen before the draft and when we were doing our initial mock drafts we were not projecting romad dun to fall there so I think that this was not we we Round 6 drafted or we traded for Keenan Allen uh so we can bring romad dun along slowly I think they're partying right now because they were able to snag romad dun at Ninth overall and then Keenan's going to be on the back burner by the end of the year round six what's the name Christian Watson and so there's there's definitely Spike we potential I don't like putting a lot of Packers on this list but uh combin the Packers family night which is basically their preseason game for the fans out in Lambo plus the pre-season game where the starters played you can start developing a picture of Route participation Romeo dos with the first team offense with those two outings 83% Christian Watson 72% Jaden Reed 62% and then Davian Wix Hall of Famer down at 24% I don't think that you can play Davian Wix for 24% of the first team reps over the course of the season so who is that going to come at the expensive I think half of it will come at the expens of Romeo dobs and half of it will come down to Christian Watson already 72% is not enough for most six round wide receivers to pay off their ADP especially a team that is going to get their tight ends involved especially with the offensive coordinators that's going to scheme up plays individually to everybody in the offense Christian Watson obviously has some health concerns at the same time so I'm really bullish on the Packers in general I think that Christian Watson is a fine enough player uh but I think he's pretty limited and I think that Jaden Reed in the fifth round at 62% route participation that scares me Christian Watson he scares me even more because I'm a little less optimistic on what he provides to the offense versus Jaden Reed he scares me in a way that we've already seen him turn Fantasy Football on its head I mean let's not forget 365 days ago the closing adps for Christian Watson was the 40th overall player and then what but that was before we knew anything about Jordan love isn't that pretty insane now ever since then we've gotten Jaden Reed Daven Wix and we know dos has run every single snap but also since then with Christian Watson we've got one of his hamstrings trimmed down about 8 to 10% so now they're like equal and hopefully this injury history is behind him with that he's just such an explosive player and rebs pointed this out he had 33% of the Packers air yards this past season despite only playing nine games uh that was 26 in the league again despite playing nine healthy games so we love Wicks down the field we love Jane with the ball in his hands it's cool that Romeo dos runs routes uh but Watson like has a chance of really because this offense is like deep shot cool schemed up underneath stuff you know deep shot cool schemed up underneath stuff and he can be that like ceiling Pusher roof breaker type and uh yeah I'm I I am more in on Christian Watson actually this year than I was last year because I get a decreased price on it yeah you you get a slight decrease but there's a lot decrease he's going in the ninth pick of the sixth round versus the 40th overall player last year yeah but he also didn't play and we have all this evidence that he's not going to be a full-time player so he's a he's a better in basetball pick I'm telling you right if in your redraft when you if you have to draft him in the sixth round it's not going to be fun trying to guess which week is going to be the downfield shot week now Christian Watson is going to be the best option in the Red Zone potentially and he he will make some big plays out there I just think think that this type of profile typically is like eighth round and I can kind of justify that 62 72% of the snaps like next to Brian Thomas like Brian Thomas I think most likely is gonna be better than Christian Watson straight up and I think that he has a path to be playing a 100% of the snaps so I just can't uh take him over Brian Thomas and I is notable to me that since we are using Underdog adps uh I believe five of your first six selections are wide receivers for this list because wer supposed to say that out loud the wide receiver prices just get pushed up but I do believe later on then we'll get some running back picks here too um because it just makes sense that is the yin the Yang of what Underdog fantasy's ADP is before we get there by the way just want to shout out to 39% of you over the last 28 days that I've watched the channel I salute you you're are well-mannered good intentioned people not like those slappies that watch and don't subscribe Round 7 the 61% who gives a damn about those people I only care about you 39 enters that watch and leave a thumbs up and most importantly hit subscribe and tell a friend next round seven who is it it's time for the running backs Aaron Jones in round seven not a big fan of this one 29 years old coming off of a career worst in yards per touch I have a fantasy points overexp expected model and it was his career Worst season in that as well he was problematic in at like in short yardage in particular uh which would make some sense given his size and his his injury history here last year the Vikings dead last in running back usage we know that KOC wants to pass they want to pass vertically and and it doesn't matter who the quarterback is and they're pretty damn good at it when they do do it and then we heard Kevin oconnell also talk about Aaron Jones uh who obviously they like they went out of their way to to get him but Kevin oconnell said quote I think when he's been at his best throughout his career you've seen that other guy and then he went on to say we feel really really good about Tai Chandler now that laugh I'm not sure if they like really believe that love to hear it I've watched too much Ty Chandler to pretend that he's some like perfect running back out there well who's the third guy and wongo well it's not GNA be him he's he's still recovering from that pass protection rep uh from the preseason they like him enough to use Tai Chandler and that's why Aaron Jones is on this list I think it's going to be a one-w committee on the team that was dead last in running back usage last year I agree where where am I supposed to go are we expecting a bounce back season from from Aaron Jones like maybe you can sell me on that but I think if he's going to stay healthy it's because the Vikings aren't using him and I want my running backs to be on the field getting points that's why I'd rather have James Connor who also has injury risk but the reason why James Connor has injury risk is because he's touched the ball for the 22nd time in the game and he's giving me fantasy points on the way Aaron Jones going as the eighth pick of the seventh round as you mentioned James Conor even Naji Harris are going right around here with Aaron Jones I know from like an efficiency stand Point numbers based stuff Aaron Jones wasn't good last year I do remember watching him and think when he was on the field and health was sporadic but when on the field thought he still had the juice and still explosiveness but again let's not forget he had something like 120 rushing yards in week one and then ended it with a hamstring injury and then he had two other recurrences as that went along and now what he's 30 31 years of age coming up here in September um you mentioned the Red Zone stuff it is notable okay Aaron Jones converted a career low 4.6% of its Red Zone opportunities this past season two of 44 the year before that it was already a career low at 13.2% yep and sample size alert a very small version Tai Chandler all three of his runs inside the five yard line he scored touchdowns all three times so I don't think it's totally out of the RM of possibility for a team that does throw vertically if they are stuck inside the five yard line that at worst it's a 50-50 split here between Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler inside the five yard yeah that makes me nervous because the Vikings is probably going to be a mediocre offense this year so the goal line opportunities might not be uh super high to begin with and when I did look at my fantasy points over expected model what you noted was true like but between the 20s on thanks to the perimeter was still pretty pretty solid rusher you saw that in the playoffs certainly it was when you get into short yarded situations which is really valuable for fantasy football especially in half PPR that's where it was a complete disaster like basically the worst in the league maybe you can pitch me that that was an offense a line issue with the Packers um but I think it's just like we've seen it they want to make Ty Chandler their version of an AJ dy I think he had more Red Zone touchdowns against the Cowboys in the playoffs than he did through the entire regular season last year okay round eight what's your name zamir white Round 8 if you look at the preseason usage 37% of the snaps with the Raiders first team then plays well into the third quarter that's kind of concerning he's not playing passing situations and there's actually two guys getting involved it's Alexander Madison they also have this rookie that's a more of a um pass down version so I'm just not super excited about what the Raiders are trotting out there uh on offense I think by the end of the season there's a chance that Devonte Adams gets moved and if that happens then really what are we talking about with the Raiders offense here so I think just in general like the oneliner on zamir white he's a game script dependent grinder on the type of offense I'm projected to be 27th in scoring the Raiders last year 30th in plays per game 28th in fourth down aggressiveness 25th in short area rushing success rate this is a defensive-minded head coach that wants to play balance and is not going to throw the ball to zamir white unless something really changes so I think there's a chance that zamir white like looks pretty decent on his touches but the way that I play Fantasy want touchdowns the Raiders aren't going to have many of those and I want my running backs catching passes and we know that's not going to happen so I'm out let's unpack that a little bit uh the reason why zamir white is the second pick of the eighth round even on Underdog is because he closed the season as the running back 12 15 20 and 17 again that's the only reason why we might be considering him at this spot he only caught nine passes over those four games nine so he's not getting the receiving usage because last year that went to Amir Abdullah who out snapped him on third downs 43-1 and Amir Abdullah by the way and that was air Abdullah who by the way we've seen Alexander Madison plays some of that role here in the preseason so far to me volume-based running backs with new play callers on predicted bad offenses you have them at 27th in scoring they're bottom six no matter what you look at those are bad buys you know and I think it's pretty easy to point to again that four game sample and then attach that on to like Josh Jacobs on this very same team who led the NFL in rushing back in 2022 the difference is when Josh Jacobs was the NFL's leading rusher the Raiders finished with the 12th most touchdowns in the league that's not happening this year no that would be the most suting development in the league if the Raiders are top 12 and points scored on offense this season so it's just a bad environment with a new play caller with a guy that seems like a volume sponge who doesn't catch passes and for that reason I am out two options for you if you're not picking zamir white rahee moer the guy happened to scor I think 21 touchdowns last year that might be a decent pick in the eighth round and then uh joh a great offense on a great offense I project him fourth in scoring this year Jonathan Brooks now I can't make the good offense uh uh take with Jonathan Brooks but we are talking about uh a second round pick who does catch passes um and maybe like by the end of the season Jonathan Brooks becomes a thing but if you want to keep it simple and just draft Raheem moer coming off of all those touchdowns have Round 9 at it he might not have the ridiculous success that he had inside the Red Zone last year but Raheem moer probably will still have a lot of Red Zone work this year with the Mi okay round nine another running back Tony Pard here um and by the way if you've noticed a trend I don't like this running back here I know a lot of people kind of talk up that you can get projectable volume in here well the projectable volume first of all I don't think it's high quality projectable volume and I can get a great quality projective volume like Josh Jacobs in round five so I'll pay up at running back this year so with with Tony Pard I think everyone feels pretty confident this going to be a 50-50 split and maybe Tony Pard or Tai Spears separates from there but this is starting basically 5050 it's pretty rare to like have a truly split down the middle last year I know it's not the exact same offense but we're talking about the same quarterback uh somewhat similar offensive line uh this team averaged 20 expected half PPR points to their like running backs as a hole remember that was with this guy named Derrick Henry on the team if you split that in half that's 10 for Pard 10 for Tai Spears 10 expected fantasy points makes you the RB 34 maybe you can sell me that the Titans offense is like going to be way better this year I'm not willing to do that with Will Levis I know some people are a little bit more optimistic with the new coaching staff I don't know man I just haven't seen Tony paer look like a total Difference Maker I don't have a big projection for the Titans offense here and if this is really a 50/50 split and if you had to tell me which one's going to be the guy that separates between Pard and Spears I would just be picking uh Tai Spears straight up and that's where I've played My Flag Spears is going as the first pick of the 10th round Tony P going as a sixth pick of the ninth round so you're even getting like a little six or seven pick discount on taj Spears I could be wrong though but I I think Tony Pard has started these preseason games so far but again it's a 1 a 1B we've seen them switch in and out in series inside the Red Zone inside the 10 yard line it really doesn't matter what the situation is we also talked Brian Callahan or heard him talk about that they're just going to be heavily featured in The Passing game which is great news here I think my main concern is a lot of eggs are in the basket of an improved offensive line it's with the JC leam Peter scony new center if one of those guys goes down like that could be again major issues for a offense that struggled with offensive line talent and depth last year um I do have some positive in the direction tell if we can just bring them up real quick okay so the Bengals ran the ball out of 11 personnel 65% of his time during Brian Callahan's tenure that was second only behind the LA Rams okay Callahan's Run game against loaded boxes he only had that 34% of the time okay for his career Tonio po has averaged 5.2 yards per Rush against non-loaded boxes that's eth in the NFL over that span and on runs out of 11 personnel he averaged five yards per carry 1th in the league so as you have noted Tony P has been very good in his past up until last season and I think those stats are an indicator of that in the Dallas Cowboys offense couple things though to counter that that was before he broke his leg and that was with Dak Prescott who if Will lon's into Dak Prescott I would be completely wrong on that and the Cowboys their offensive line has always been sick I'm not expecting that the ti just had one of their starting guards retire um so round 10 who is the landmine Tyler Lockett another player I just really Round 10 hate putting on this list but I think it's just the time to do it last year wide receiver 46 and yards per route that was his lowest since 2017 in my man coverage composite score wide receiver 68 right there his and I think the primary reason why that was the case lockett's yards after the catch was by far a career worse because the screens now no longer go to tyr locket because they have J SN who's just better in the screen game so if you're not going to be dialing up screens to Tire locket and they have DK mechal and they have an ascending jsn who I think will be used down the field a little bit more I just start getting a little bit nervous that year 32 for tire locket this is the time to officially escape and something we've talked about with the age Cliffs is you want to see it a little bit and then once you see it it's bye-bye I think I saw it last year with Tire lockit and I think I saw a little bit more in jsn game uh once I went back in this offseason start like really grinding what he was doing in all 22 um so it's just one of these things players going opposite directions uh you want to be buying the young guys and fading the old guys and Ryan grub can support three wide receivers he did so at the University of Washington but I would now put Tyler lock at third on that list like you know drafts are doing yeah at this moment it's going back to our conversation from last offseason with Ryan Heath as you mentioned like we can obviously make a case for why Tyler Lockett did not succeed last year in this offense you know inaccurate passes bad offensive line Shane walren uh but as you said when you get the vision of that Cliff it's already too late like it's going to be inevitable and there's nothing you can do about it and as you said too many people want to like fall already down the cliff to then believe it where for so many years it was manow lockets underrated and five straight seasons of top 24 scoring and then last year what he was like wide receiver 38 in points per game so I think that's as much evidence as you need for it now to be the time and for him to be third of this Trio a couple names uh Big Mike Williams I I know it's like a little bit of an older player but he's like three years younger than Ty Lockett and I think like he's clearly G to be the wi right but like clearly the wide receiver too um Jerry Judy clearly the wide receiver too in his offense I I really go those names not that I like Round 11 love big mikee Williams this year though don't get it twisted okay round 11 Jared gof there's just like no ceiling here you know I think we all agree on this one last year the lions were fantastic if you guys hadn't heard uh they were third in Red Zone touchdown rate which is typically a stat that regresses they were second in plays per game this was kind of crazy to me they were third in deep ball catch rate that's another stat that tends to regress even with all of that he was 126 overall in fantasy points over replacement per game that's kind of his like upside case and that's where he's being drafted right now if you start regressing things Dan Campbell came out and he said that he's begging for a wide receiver three to appear because they didn't do anything to replace Josh Reynolds right now he firmly said it's CLE Raymond yeah okay good uh that's good for me in round 18 uh but if something happens to Monro St brown or Sam leaport there's not exactly a of depth uh in terms of of pass catchers so I think you're just asking for a lot for Jared gof to like move the needle Matthew Stafford DeShaun Watson Gino Smith I think pretty similar types uh of bets and those guys just go like multiple rounds later in the draft I think this one's as simple as last year with everything going perfectly offensive line staying almost perfectly healthy yeah Sam La pora emerging alen rosan Brown having an awesome year jro go was still the quarter back 15 in points per game and you're having to draft him as the quarterback 16 yeah in points per game now the flip side of that is among all these true statue quarterbacks right he's going right around Tua even though he's skinny now uh Kurt Cousins Justin Herbert couple rounds later it's Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rogers I think it's fair to say that he has like the most stable environment out of all them when we talk about offensive line we talk about play caller and we talk about the two leading pass catchers and Amar Roan Brown and Sam lorta but again you're already drafting him ahead of all those names except for Tua so you're not getting a discount on all this stuff like you did last year you're having to pay the price and you would have to get the same exact season that we got from him last year and one quick note Jared G has two top 12 scoring weeks in outdoor games over the last two seasons just two yeah I think that they play indoors on like 14 of their games this year which is like is nuts bro yeah I think except for like week 16 against Chicago or something yeah and you'll be eliminated if you draft Jared gof don't don't you worry about that yeah I think there's just like I can see DeShaun Watson scrambling around having a lot more volume Gino Smith I think is like very a very similar quarterback uh on an emerging offense that we're talking about so I would just rather take the discount draft one of these rookie running backs Rico D with a little bit more upside and then once the running backs and wide receivers start to dry up then take one of the statue quarterbacks yeah I really like the RICO D shout because if he ends up being 60% of the Cowboys running backs you have a running back two on your hands here right one pick ahead of where Jared GF is going in the 11th round round 12 only a couple more left here Hayden uh Co KET I'm Round 12 shocked that he's a 12th round pick like what exactly are we doing here uh the Bears have a fetish Shane Waldren specifically has a fetish of Gerald Everett um I know like we just we keep talking about they've been using two tight end sets there's also been some snaps where Gerald Everett is like the 3 by one he's the one and he's like running like whip routes as like the isolated first read option and it's not going anywhere and for some reason like it seems like this is what Shane waler wants to do well none of that's good news for Cole KT who is now like not penciled in to be a full-time player even if he is a full-time player I think when you have romad dun uh and then you have DJ Moore then maybe you have the ghost of Keenan Allen DeAndre Swift DeAndre Swift yeah deand Swift there's like more guys to like get the ball to so I just don't see the reason why you would used Cole KT here last year he was second in uh touchdown scored at the position there was a bunch of tight ends that finished with six uh even with that he was the 95th overall player so too much Target competition increased uh including Gerald Everett snaps going down uh and you can regress some of those touchdowns as well so uh I think I should be he should be priced like where like Colby Parkinson and those guys go which is like basically undrafted in your 12 team leagues I've consumed some fantasy football content over the last few days and there are legitimate questions out there of are we really going to believe this Gerald Everett Cole kit split or is this just something that they're doing to be nice to Gerald Everett in the preseason I firmly believe it and I won't spend too much time on this but again you had Noah Fant who was part of the Russell Wilson deal a freak athlete as a former first round pick you wanted to pay him money this offseason right just from a GM front office standpoint Parkinson goes on to get a nice contract somewhere else and he's going to catch some passes will dley moves on as the best blocking tight end in Chargers history and he gets paid too all three of those guys once again got paid and all three were on the field last year for Shane waler and Seattle Seahawks at least 380 snaps then it was 500 then it was 574 okay you have those three archetypes and Gerald Everett Cole KT and marcedes Lewis here so there's a reason when an OC a play caller comes in and says hey who do we want on this team well I want this guy that does this role this guy that does this role okay you have filled this Trio of tight ends that he had in Seattle with new ones with the Bears and it just equals a bunch of mismash mush that you're gonna have a couple Spike weeks here or there but like I just don't see how Co Kat can be the tight end 15 in draft right now Gerald ever got paid $6 million guaranteed that's a two-year 122 million contract this year so you can add him to the list of these tight ends that are getting paid it's his teammate that's getting paid a bunch and uh Sam Sherman made a good point um Gerald Everett and Keenan Allen moving from Los Angeles California to Chicago the weight's gonna go up that's just the moral of the story there too much deep dish pizza we need to get Keenan Allen and Gerald Everett a little bit away from each other the the comments were appreciate this to live in Chicago no one who actually lives in Chicago eats deep dish pizza but that's just all for them okay only a few left three in fact Round 13 round 13 lucky number who is it pop Douglas he's only been playing in the slot this preseason uh the Patriots they've been using 11 personnel at a 50% clip so if if pop Douglas is only playing in three wide receiver sets that means he's going to be running a route on 50% of the snaps and that's assuming that he doesn't get benched and that's kind of interesting because I've noticed Jaylen pulk playing a lot more slot than I was uh expecting he's been an inside outside uh option so there's a chance that pop Douglas doesn't play at the expense of Jaylen pulk and then you talked about it all the time this is an offense Alex vanel coming from Cleveland that wants to throw the ball to the tight end which is why they have tight ends you know on the football field instead of three wide receivers so Hunter Henry should be going ahead of Pop Douglas and Jaylen pul in my opinion here and then even if I'm wrong let's say uh pop Douglas is playing 75 80% of the snaps I don't know this Patriots offense might really suck you know and even if even if he does get the ball it's typically six seven eight yards down the field uh so give me like Andre yosias like just complete Dart throw uh Demarcus Robinson he's the third wide receiver on an offense I actually trust so I know that those uh those guys have like equally low floors but I just like struggle to see any upside with pop Douglas in fact I'm surprised he goes in the 13th round well just a zoom out view you brought up a slot wide receiver in Andre yosias and you brought up a slot wide receiver and pop Douglas the main difference is one's probably on offense that scores top eight in points and one's on offense that's bottom eight points one runs predominantly three wide receiver sets and one is going to mix and mash and do all that type of stuff I mean pop Douglas again is the epitome of a bunny hop slot wide receiver Evan Lazar who I believe writes for the Patriots in general went on uh bdge Nick or colo's Channel and he mentioned that the size of Pop Douglas doesn't fit the system you know think about it in Cleveland who had this body type and frame the closest Elijah Moore and what did they do with Elijah Moore it was a bunch of horizontal stuff manufactured touches and his one big game with Joe Flaco was when Amari Cooper went down and he ran as the outside wide receiver think about the same system in Arizona who has this similar body type they just got rid of Rond Del Moore traded him away this offseason you know there's no they want bigger bodies to play on the outside here and tight ends over the middle of the field so like I just don't see how the archetype of Pop Douglas fit with where the Patriots are headed this year I don't give this one at all let's just be honest round 14 Marshon Lloyd another USC troj I mean this is just Round 14 sometimes just be uh your own enemy marshan ly just has not practiced enough you know and even when he's been practicing is just not it's just not been good enough uh AJ Dylan's still ahead of him like I know like we can't say that's going to be the case the entire year but there is some history with Coach lefl with rookie running backs AJ Dylan Once Upon a Time was a day two pick and he finished with 46 carries That season because he couldn't unseat Jamal Williams who everybody wanted to bench in favor of AJ Dylan well all of a sudden that's Marshon Lloyd trying to do that to AJ Dylan and I'm not sure if he's gonna do that the other part about this is everyone keeps saying that coach lefor runs a two- back offense that's been true to date but Josh Jacobs is a 300 touch Workhorse in a Jones he can't play that many snaps derck Henry when he had derck Henry as a rookie Derrick Henry doesn't play Passing situations I think there's a chance that just Josh Jacobs just like runs away with 70% of the snaps and there is no second running back that's even accumulating points so I wish that he was healthy because he does have like a ceiling to chase here but right the Packers offense could be a lot to handle uh because they're really scheming up a bunch of different players and they use a lot of motion and a lot of different formations that could be a lot for a rookie and he just hasn't practiced enough to like for me to feel comfortable so your ray Davis's uh there's lots of other rookie running backs he should just go after all them because right now he's he's the running back three we talked about at points this Summer that the best of Marshon Lloyd is really electric and if he had started the season with one or two touches and week one and week two when he made the most of those and broke a big gain and you kind of earned more snaps it's probably been difficult with this preseason of being injured the other side of that is the worst of Marshon Lloyd is really frustrating fumbles just spins fumbles all types of stuff and we saw what happened with Matt lefor last year when young players frustrate the heck out of him see you you're going the bench you're not playing you're learning how to do your job y so I think it's pretty clear that AJ Dylan will open the season as the number two back that means marshan Lloyd opens the season as a number three it is a very long season as we've talked about we are not AJ Dylan Advocates and it goes down for veterans and up I do think Martian Len's best weeks are going to be towards the middle to back half of this season but I don't think outside of injury that's really going to impact someone like Josh Jacobs who's just a different type of runner at this point in his career than what laflor has had in his past before yeah maybe it's like week 10 and there's a waiver wire show and Josh Jacob is going to miss some time and then we're talking up Marshon Lloyd but I seem like the entry point into that is just a little bit lower uh than expected okay let's land the plane Round 15 round 15 Kate auton what the hell is he doing in round 15 that that's my question uh he was tight end 37 in yards per route last year he finished 188th overall in this fantasy points over replac replacement metric he was second in routes among tight ends and then you finish 188th overall there's more Target competition uh in this offense because you you have now a running back two that's beginning to emerge there's backup tight ends that have a chance to eat into his snaps Jaylen McMillan is most likely going to be a better third option than what Buccaneers had last season so I don't know like I've never seen it with Kate dton like flashing like I think maybe in in like one of the late season games he caught like six or seven passes but like he just hasn't been like a Difference Maker in terms of like movement skills in my mind he wasn't also like a high-end Prospect either is more like supposed to be this blocking typ which is what he's been there's too many guys with like legit upside like Kobe Parkinson I think moves better plays in a better offense Jawan Johnson he's flashed more receiving ability the Saints really need Jawan Johnson in the pass game uh Ben cinate he is the rookie second round pick he's flashed this preseason as like a true Difference Maker the commanders could use somebody like him stepping up so there's just too many uh late round tight end options that I would rather go up for or just go up in the draft draft a Luke Musgrave Hunter Henry is the boring version of K doton that's actually going to get you fantasy points here as well so uh the last three or four of these picks I'm like stunned that these guys are going as early as they're going so like maybe this come backs to haunt me and Cole KT K do and pop Douglas are the guys you need but to me like this is like one of the easiest shows I've done these last four picks like seem like such layups I think we're in for the worst season of all time if Co pop Douglas and K Doon are the three names that you need right uh there's also been a ton of Buzz for Isaiah likeley out of Baltimore Ravens Camp he's going one one pick after the Titan position after kton like again they're third wide receivers up in the air and it sounds like it could be a lot of Mark Andrews and Isaiah likely to go with baitman and Z flowers even Janu Smith who knows when the spike week's gonna happen but him in the Miami Dolphins offense is a lot of fun and you mentioned it in week nine that's when koton had his one game six receptions on nine targets 70 yards and two touchdowns that was his only game last year top 12 scored the position and you said what he ran the second Targets in the league at the spot yes second most routes in in the league tight end 37 yards per route so just not not a not going to move the needle um real quick going back to to Maron Lloyd this a big note Justice Musa who is just one of my absolute favorites covers the Packers he he noted that there's a chance that they hide Marshon Lloyd on like injured reserve or the pup list because he has that hamstring injury because they really like this Emanuel Wilson kid uh who's the running back and probably going pitch in on special team he was there last year too right yes he he's been around he's like he's had some some moments um and like there's a chance that they like to get Emanuel Wilson onto the team they hide Marshon Lloyd uh on injured reserve of the pup list so there could be a chance where we don't even see Marshon Lloyd in a Packers uniform until October so has it feel 15 rounds 15 players you despise pinpoint the landmines for people to avoid is there a weight off your shoulders uh yeah the ones that make me most nervous how about let's play this game real quick Christian Watson could could absolutely just like dust because the Packers offense is good if like Josh Jacobs goes down then obviously Maran Lloyd becomes a real threat Jamar Chase can finish as the wide receiver one but I think everyone knows that's within the range of London yeah I don't know I feel pretty good about this one okay okay all right we'll end it there then again want to give a massive shout out to the 39% of you who watch I notice I read your comments the rest can get up on out of here okay don't care about you as much um want to note the rest of this week is about cheat codes so we're going to do a cheat code video for your drafts on Yahoo a cheat code video for your draft on sleeper on ESPN really Hold Your Hand along the way the best values the best strategies for each of those platforms there're some of our best videos every single year you all love them so we're going to record those for the rest of the week and then probably this weekend is gr I'm going to put out my own version of this video and that'll be based on those home league adps and then next week you are asking next week our rank updates videos after weeks week three of the preseason maybe some cuts and things along the way yep and then last note Underdog fantasy we have the pick them stuff but we also have beste ball if you are trying to prepare for your home leagues this weekend the best way to prepare don't fire up one of these mock draft simulators that's that's disgusting actually go play some baseball you're playing against people that actually care our ADP updates every single day we have really cheap $3 five uh tournaments we have $25 baseball Mania that's a $15 million price pool out there we have $500 formats we have a ton of stuff over there and then in the in the season two we have DFS style games too so if you're into drafting it's the best place uh to do that as well so it's not just pick them use promo code the show uh will'll give you a lot of cash on your first deposit there it is there it is all right shout out to producer weaves shout out to Hayden shout out to all of you up the talk to you soon see you he [Music]