McElroy’s conference championship game and CFP predictions | Always College Football

Intro - Conference championship predictions that's five from the SEC that I think will make the initial 12 team playoff feels like a lot feels like a little let us know I really think the sec's depth and the fact that you're going to have a bunch of teams with pretty dang good records and pretty good resumés going to have them well positioned hello and welcome in it's always college football today is Wednesday August 21st and it's a very important day because today it's official today we etch our predictions in stone we have long speculated for the last eight months how we might lean when evaluating some of these teams we've long considered possibilities and whether or not we're going to take some flyers but today is the day I'm your host Greg melroy along with me as always the usual crew Jack Mark Jake Jack the other Jack everybody's here all right but today's a very special day we've given you our top 25 that was few weeks back so there have been a couple tweaks based on some Buzz coming out of fall Camp we've also basically told you some dark horses over the last few years and if you want to go back just for the record last couple years nobody in the preseason has been more accurate for the most part than us when evaluating conference champ champions last year in the power five we were five for five in picking the conference Champion that's right we had Texas we had Washington a lot of people didn't we did we had Alabama last year Over Georgia we also had Florida state in the ACC and not a huge surprise that we had Michigan in the Big 10 we were five for five last year the year before you look at some of the teams that we've had playing for the conference Championship the year before we had noth North Carolina playing for the ACC last year we had Louisville playing for the ACC Championship not many people did but we did so we've been very very good in being able to predict who is going to do what we also picked Georgia to win the national championship two years ago and we picked Michigan to win the national championship last year so if there's nothing you listen to at all this might be the show that you might want to be paying attention to now are we due for a bad year probably considering I just cited a record but I think we put a lot of time and effort into these predictions and we feel pretty good about them but it's always a risk so without much further Ado our hold me to them set in stone predictions here for 2024 let's start off in the ACC three contenders here in ouris with The case for Florida St, Miami and Clemson to make ACC Championship game all due respect to NC State with all due respect to Virginia Tech the three teams that we really whittel it down to are the three that you'd probably expect Florida State Miami and Clemson and it's very difficult to kind of differentiate between the two when you look at the schedules so much of this has to do with Personnel schedules it's got to be some type of a blend between the two the reason why we liked Louisville last year in the ACC is because their schedule was extremely manageable same can be said for North Carolina the year before then I looked at some of the schedules this year it's like well North Carolina's schedule's pretty good but there's just too many question marks for me to feel great about putting them in the conference title I feel like I'm hedging my bets here I'm taking the three most talented teams the three best rosters and then I'm going to whittle It Down based on how things might line up in their schedules let's start with the defending ACC Champs the Florida state seminal you look at their schedule I think things get off to a very tricky start here in week number zero that's right number zero road trip I know it's against Georgia Tech I know that's a neutral sight I think that's a remarkably challenging game they also have a difficult game against the G5 team in Memphis a team that going to talk probably a little bit about a little later in the season who knows what Florida will be by the time they play him but those are not games that are going to have a huge impact on whether or not they go to the ACC title the games that I'm focusing on for Florida State that could determine whether or not they repeat as conference Champs at SMU on September 28th that's a big one Clemson comes to them that game might be really pivotal when we evaluate how things are going here in just a moment and then they go to Miami where there'll be probably a slight favorite right now but that might not be the case here a little bit further down the road people are going to say well what about the Notre Dame game that's not to do with the ACC Championship has exclusively to do with where they might rank if they're making a play as an at large team in the college football playoff but I look at those and I think there's three or four games that are really challenging in the ACC ultimately I think Florida State's probably a 6-2 football team in the ACC I think they're nine and3 overall thereabouts which would have them in Prime position let's go next to Miami Miami very difficult game week week one against Florida but that doesn't have any indicator of whether or not they'll compete for their conference title the tough games on the schedule for them at Louisville very tough game there on October 19th Colin Lacy Louisville star receiver broken colar bone does he return on October 19th to face Miami Florida State also another difficult game that game's October 26th so back to back maybe your two toughest games on the schedule for Miami they are right next to each other they are coming off bye though and there is a sneaky tough game in there for me that's a road trip to Cal on October 5th could be a 10:30 start eastern time that might be a little challenging the body clock especially at the tail end of what should be a five game stretch between Florida Florida and M Ball State at South Florida Virginia Tech those are five and then you have that at Cal game very very tough to kind kind of have that there at the end in the sixth game of the season so I look at it I think Miami is a 10- two football team and I think if they really only have those two super difficult games at Louisville Florida State at home did they split those two and are they seven to one at the end of the day and then finally the Clemson Tigers do not sleep on Clemson everyone seems to be I don't think you should Georgia and the non con we're going to find out exactly where they set up week one tough tough schedule but I look at how their schedule sets up and you tell me how confident are you in picking a team against Clemson at Clemson I can tell you this much I've been to Death Valley I don't feel real confident picking teams to go into Tiger Stadium and to get a win against the Clemson Tigers I don't anticipate that happening very often so NC State it's going to be tough sleding for NC State there in week three they go to Florida State very pivotal game you'll find out based on kind of how I feel who I think might win that game if it were played today they also have Louisville that comes to them I think Clemson will hand handle their business in that situation couple tough road trips at Virginia Tech I think that's a tricky one we already referenced the Florida State game so it's not an easy schedule by any stretch of the mat especially when you take into account I think is an underrated South Carolina team at the end of the year then George and the noncon two tough games I think Clemson's 9ine and3 football team thereabouts probably six- two in the league but the conference The ACC Championship game will be…. Championship game in our estimation will be between Miami and the Florida State seminal and we are taking the Miami Hurricanes at this point there's more known Commodities on the roster they've been able to really upgrade at just about every position now are there a couple question marks in the backend defensively yes but they did go out and bring in a guy like Meese Powell from Washington they feel pretty good about him filling in one of those safety spots I didn't feel like their secondary was great last year so I think another year in Lance GID system defensively they're going to be able to take Next Step so we're taking Miami to win the ACC and punch their ticket to the playoff over Florida State so Florida State much like last year will be waiting around on selection day to find out whether or not they are in let's move next to the Big 12 Big 12 is a really solid League when The case for Utah, OK St, Kansas St and Kansas in the BIG 12 championship game you're starting to go through the schedules and you think about the contenders there's a bunch of teams that are going to actually have a bunch of games that are within five or six seven points on the point spread if you do look ahead lines right now for a lot of these teams man I mean Utah plays four or five games that are all inside of a touchdown in One Direction or the other Oklahoma State the same Kansas the same Kansas State the same Iowa State the same TCU frankly look ahe headlines have them in a underdog in multiple spots but all the games are within six or seven points so this could be a league where you just flip a coin man there's six or seven teams that we might be talking about at the beginning of November and then it's just survival of the fittest at that point however the team that I think is best equipped to navigate the schedule and find their way into the Big 12 title game is the Utah Utes you look at their scheduled and how things set up we know their personnel we know they're going to defend you in the front seven defensively we know that their identity is going to be being extremely physical along both lines of scrimmage I think that translates really nicely to this league the league people still in backwards world still Envision the Big 12 as a league that's going to air it out like Patrick Mahomes and Baker Mayfield are still going toe-to-toe in a 66 to 58 Beatdown that's not what the big 12 is anymore the Big 12 is about the line of scrimmage ground and pound physical in the front seven defensively with I think pretty dang good running backs across the board Texas Tech has an elite running back Oklahoma State obviously with olly Gordon has an elite running back I think cam Ward or excuse me CAM rising at Utah not a running back but a quarterback that can definitely keep you honest with his legs they have a great rushing attack you look at what Kansas has Devon Neil and the speed that they have tons of great speed at running back like this is a league that wants to emphasize the line of scrimmage and run the football I think Utah's best equipped to handle that now their toughest game on the road at Oklahoma State and the rest of their games are for the most part relatively manageable Iowa State comes to them I think it's a really tough game they're on November 23rd they're at UCF be careful and that spot on the road at UCF probably going to be a slight favorite there but that will be a really tough game then they're on the road at Colorado as well however I look at Utah schedule I think they can get to 10- two I think they can be seven- two in the Big 12 so if they lose let's say the Arizona game and the Oklahoma State game I think they're still in a really good spot even if they were to lose those two games to find their way in a league that embodies Carnage to the Big 12 title game let's go to who I think they might be facing off against few teams that were under consideration so I'll tell you who those two teams or those three teams are let's start with Oklahoma State they got there last year very very tough schedule Utah comes to them but they're at Kansas State that's in consecutive weeks then doesn't get much easier than that you have to play another game against a super physical West Virginia team that is a three-game stretch that will be brutal they finally get to breede the sigh of relief after that where they get there by and they have back-to-back road trips to BYU and Baylor so I look at their schedule Oklahoma State I think it's really tough I think the toughest game that nobody's going to talk about here in the preseason is at TCU where there'll probably be a slight favorite but TCU at that point maybe tcu's figured out who they need to be maybe some of those aners over the last couple years really start to lean into who TCU can be and that might be a very tricky one for them Texas Tech goes to them they're at Colorado at the end of the year Colorado maybe at that point Colorado needs it to get to bowl eligibility so be careful there I still think with what Oklahoma State returns their identity offensively and the identity of the league and where it's likely going has me still feeling really good about the pokes nine and three s-2 in the league would not be that surprising but let's get to Kansas State and Kansas quickly before I tell you who I think will be playing in the Big 12 title game Kansas State tough games you look at that Arizona game in week three that is not a conference game so people will say oh well they get Arizona it's at home that's bad news for the wild cats they're going to be a game and a half back Kansas state if they lose that one on the road in Manhattan that doesn't matter not in conference that was scheduled out of conference and they kept it here even though Arizona and Kansas State are in the same league tough games for Kansas State at Colorado should be a tight one at West Virginia should be a tight one Kansas comes to them should be a tight one and then you have Iowa State on the road at the end of the year I that's four very losable games in conference so it could be tough to see them get to say 10- two seven- two in the league I think they're more like a 9 and3 six and3 team in the Big 12 and then finally the Kansas j-hawks uh really like this team but so much of it will be dependent on whether or not their quarterback can stay healthy if Jaylen Daniels is health for 12 games feel great about the possibilities of them crashing the playoff party but that is a big if given the fact that Jaylen Daniels only played what what 12 games in the last two years so got to know he's available got to know he's in a good spot it's nice to know that they avoid Utah and they avoid Oklahoma State but still some question marks about their defense and a quarterback that's been a little in and out of the lineup it's hard for me to Envision Kansas doing a whole lot better than a 9 and3 6 and3 in the Big 12 you look at some of the games the Iowa State game at home should be very tough they're at Kansas State that'll be tough TCU comes to them that'll be tough and at West Virginia there on September 21st another game that I think is very losable for Kansas so they're nine and three six and three in the league so I just told you I got Kansas Kansas State at six and three in the league I have Oklahoma State and Utah at seven and2 in the league that means Oklahoma State and Utah will be The BIG 12 championship game will be… playing for the Big 12 title game in our eyes and the winner is the Utah Utes looking at their quarterback looking at their Personnel at the wide receiver spot and their long leaned into identity of being a team that wants to pound you I think it sets up really well for them to transition to this league and have immediate success I think the Pack 12 was a league that was one on the perimeter but Utah forced teams to play their way now I think more teams in the Big 12 will be very comfortable playing the way Utah wants to play but because of how Utah has had to adapt they've brought in Quality Personnel at wide receiver and cam rising's experience ultimately gives them an edge and when they're playing against Alan Bowman their passing attack at Utah I think gives them a slight Edge over the Oklahoma State Cowboys so Utah is in at 11- two the Big 12 Champs while Oklahoma State sits on selection day awaiting their future moving into the Big 10 three teams that I think are going to be comp The case for Ohio St, Oregon & Penn State in the BIG 10 championship game beting for the Big 12 Big 10 title and one of those is not the defending champ I know it's dramatic I know that that feels like a bold strategy and I will love to be proven proven wrong be awesome we've been on the Michigan bandwagon for three years now but I think with the pieces that we're lost and the schedule it's just too steep of a hill to climb so to anticipate them being up there alongside Ohio State Oregon p State and others it's just a bridge too far for me at the moment so we'll revisit this I'll be the first one to eat crow but I think most Michigan fans that are watching this know that we've been very supportive of Michigan over the last few years because we believed in what they had this year there's too many question marks on both sides of the ball for us to feel like they can go toe-to-toe with the top teams in the Big 10 so let's start with the Ohio State bucke guys they're the odds on favorite right now schedule very manageable we've all circled the same game we know that game on October 12th at Oregon will ultimately decide whether or not they're the home team or the away team potentially in the Big 10 title game outside of that game you tell me where they're going to lose now you can tell me well I you know they at Penn State I am in see it to believe it mode with Penn State I love Penn State's Personnel I love their roster I think they have a lot of things that you would really like and the home field at their disposal man sign me up Penn State I have to see James Franklin knock off Ohio State before I can comfortably pick that in the preseason I just can't so with all due respect to Penn State I think at this point I cannot Envision them pulling off that upset but at Oregon at Penn State those are the two tricky ones and of course Michigan you know the fly in the O at the last couple years for Ohio State that game will be in Columbus this year at the end of the year tell me this do you really think they're going to lose two out of three there do you think they're going to lose one out of three could they go undefeated in those three games I think it's all possible they'll be favored in every game potentially with the exception of the road trip to Oregon but I still think Ohio State at worst drops one of those three even if they Dro two they're still in a really good spot to potentially get to the Big 10 title game let's go next to the team that's currently universally picked second in the Big 10 that's the Oregon Ducks you look at the schedule they'll get a test early against Boise State they'll have a road trip to Oregon State there two tough games in the first three weeks that should get them prepared for what should be coming in the weeks to come they of course host Ohio State on October 12th talked about that game already and a couple other tricky ones at Michigan on November 2nd that'll be very tough on the road at Michigan defending champs I like Oregon's Personnel a little bit more than I like Michigan's at the moment I think the at Wisconsin games a little tricky as well you look at the schedule if they can beat Ohio State they could drop in theory one maybe two and still get to the Big 10 title game so I like Oregon to be in that spot 11 to1 8- one on the conference same can be said for Ohio State and then finally we get to Penn State where is Penn State gon to end up here now we're going to find a lot out about Penn State in week one on the road at West Virginia I think West Virginia is a really good football team physical football team they know who they are and if Penn State can go on the road and get that win and win comfortably I'm going to feel even better about their candidacy in the Big 10 moving forward but that game is purely just kind of a litmus test for the Big 12 more than it is the Big 10 because Penn State's still going to have plenty of opportunities sitting right in front of them to go and prove their worth I look at the rest of the schedule throughout the first week of October and all through September I have a hard time envisioning them slipping up at any point in the first month and change of the season first really big test in conferences at SC that's probably going to be a tough game SC at that point offensively might have everything rolling and I think Penn State's defense will be up to the task but that's a significant test on the road against the Trojans at Wisconsin a couple weeks later after the bye we'll find out exactly where they're at right there prior to they play against Ohio State be careful on the road at Wisconsin it's all I'm saying when you have that Ohio State game circled on November 2nd and you have to go to Wisconsin the week before coming out of the bye just be careful is all I'm suggesting Washington comes to them and they're at Purdue at Minnesota before Maryland finishes up the regular season I'd be really surprised if Penn State wasn't 10- two in the regular season I really I think they're gonna be 10- two I think they're gonna be seven- two in the conference so I think they're in a really good spot I mean considering the fact that James Franklin is 21 and5 in the last two years he's been pretty dang good he beats the teams he's supposed to beat but he can't quite get over the hump against the top teams in the sport that's why I have them losing to Ohio State and I have them losing at least one more I just don't know which one that is just yet is it at SC is it as Wiscon at Wisconsin I'm not 100% sure but I think they'll lose one other one so 10- two for Penn State seven- two overall and they'll be sitting there at home on conference Championship weekend because Oregon and Ohio State will play The Big Ten championship game will be…. in a rematch I think both teams are going to be 11 to1 8-1 in the conference and ultimately they're at the neutral site in a dome I'm taking the Ohio State bucke guys to beat the Oregon Ducks in the Big 10 title game and punch their ticket to the playoff which means Oregon and Penn State still well positioned to be in at large but they'll be sitting there awaiting their fate on selection day that Sunday after the conference Title Games finally before we get to the SEC isn't this fun we're talking about so many teams that are ultimately going to be in the playoff we'll tell you who our playoff is I'll tell you what rankings and seedings that I think it might how it all play out man it's just fun just to think about think about the possibilities and the amount of teams that might be under consideration if things play out the way we think they're going to play out let's move to the SEC there's going to be a lot of teams in The case for Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss, Alabama, LSU, Missouri in the SECCG the SEC that are in the playoff discussion okay there always has been there always will be it's a remarkably deep League it's it's a remarkably talented League they play eight conference games so they're going to have better records than some teams that might play nine conference games in some cases so the SEC I think is poised to get three at least three maybe four maybe five teams into the college football playoff but let's start at the top who's going to be playing for the SEC Championship we'll start with the George Bulldogs they're the oddzon favorite at the moment you look at their schedule tough non-conference Georgia Tech's a good team Clemson's a good team they're a comfortable favorite in both of those two games here's where it gets very tricky for Georgia road trip at Bama that's on October or November 28th a road trip at Texas on October 19th uh a neutral sight game against Florida a road trip at ol Miss on November 9th but still I still think there's a gap that exists between Georgia and ol Miss Even though Miss has gotten better along the line of scrimmage still think there's a gap there I look at Georgia man and with all the the question marks about their defense they still have the best Personnel they still have arguably the deepest roster and they still might have the best quarterback in Carson Beck I think George is going to be in the mix at season's end 11- one 10- two at the very worst but will they get to the conference Championship game let's see who they're going to be measured against let's go next to the Texas Longhorns the Texas Longhorns have a road trip at Michigan and the non-conference that'll help an awful lot to figure out exactly where they're going to be there that's week two September 7th on the road in Ann Arbor neutral sight game against Oklahoma is the next big challenge after that game that's on October 12th you get Georgia on October 19th so how about that for a two game stretch before you have to go to van or you have to go to Vanderbilt on the 26th that's your October then you look at November Florida at Arkansas kuy's at home and then at Texas A&M I think the& M game's really tough I think the Georgia game's really tough I think the Oklahoma game is really tough so they have three games that I think are extremely difficult in conference I think they could lose two out of three and Texas is played to the level of the competition in the past so will they do that again against improved competition in the SEC I think they might I think there's going to be a period of transition But ultimately they're probably a 10-2 football team probably a 6-2 team in conference and I think they'll get that win on the road at Michigan in the non-conference which will help them from an at large standpoint if they don't win the SEC moving on to Old Miss Miss if you look at their schedule things are really really nice for them there's really two games that should stress you out significantly if you're an old Miss fan on paper pre-season at LSU and Georgia appear to be by far their most difficult games now I think there's some dangerous games Allah at South Carolina on October 5th at Florida on November 23rd I think there's some real dangerous games on there I think okah at home on October 26th also a tricky game but at this point man with them being at home I think they'll be okay at home against some quality competition I think they're better from a Personnel standpoint significantly than what they might get at South Carolina as well so miss I think they're a 10-2 football team six and2 football team in conference but their schedule strength will not be as good as the Texas Longhorns who I think might ultimately have a similar record in conference and that might affect who goes to SEC Championship game let's go next to Alabama Alabama's got really solid schedule very difficult schedule at Wisconsin on the non-conference that's massive they host Georgia a team they've beaten two of the last three they in the best run in Georgia's history bam has kind of had their number they go to Tennessee very tough game Missouri comes to them very tough game at LSU very tough game and at Oklahoma very tough game the good news is for Alabama the iron ball is at home this year so that game might not be as scary as it would be if it in jur and hair but still I think Alabama's primed and positioned to be a little bit of a sleeper this season I know they're number five in the preseason but they're not getting the same level of scrutiny as a Georgia not the same level as a Texas so I think they're able to fly into the radar a little bit we might find out this Alabama team's actually quite a bit better than people realize on paper coming into the season assuming their defense is as good as what I've heard they might be here this upcoming year so I think they're in a good spot to be a 10- two football team 6-2 in conference let's move next to LSU LSU is a team that people are starting to wake up on okay they're starting to wake up and say oh you know what Brian Kelly if they can just be a little better on defense this team becomes remarkably dangerous they also have a really nice non-conference they could have two wins against Big 10 teams USC and a neutral site UCLA in Baton Rouge that could be really helpful and South Alabama's supposed to be pretty good as well so they might have three decent non-conference games to go along with what might be a really impressive Conference record in the SEC the schedule's not terrible Miss comes to them Bama comes to them they have to go to Florida Oklahoma comes to them as well we all know how hard it is to play in Baton Rouge well what some of your toughest games are at home that's a really solid recipe for success for the Bayou Bengals I think we're looking at a nine and3 football team here for LSU I think they got a chance to be six and2 in the league maybe five and three in the league will that be enough though to potentially get them in at large spot considering the strength of schedule that they're going to be going up against it'll be close that's for sure we'll discuss it here in just a minute we'll finish the SEC conversation with Missouri a lot of people like Missouri understandably so the schedule's extremely manageable Oklahoma's at home they have to go to South Carolina those are two of their toughest games they have to go to Alabama very difficult game Auburn comes to them they have to go to and M All Things Considered things look pretty good for Missouri on paper the non-conference is extremely manageable but I happen to think the ball might bounced the other way for Missouri this year there were many many instances last year in which they were on the fortunate side of a break or two I think those things have a tendency of correcting themselves this year I think the Auburn game's going to be tough I think the Oklahoma game is going to be tough I think at South Carolina's incredibly difficult think at Mississippi state's one you got to be kind of careful about as well because Mississippi state will be able to score some of the Personnel losses defensively I think will be too much for Missouri to overcome ultimately I think they're a 9 and3 football team 5 and3 in the SEC so without breaking down much more in the The SEC Championship game will be… SEC we broke down just about half the teams ultimately I think the SEC Championship will be decided between the Texas Longhorns and the Georgia Bulldogs and we are taking the Georgia Bulldogs to beat Texas in the conference Championship still some things to figure out defensively but Georgia has the fewest question marks and in a league that's this deep and this talented I they can go toe-to-toe with anybody even in the event in which they have some losses because of injury okay now that we have our four Top 4 in the playoffs will be… power four Champions established let's tell you how things look for the 12 team playoff as you know the top four teams are all going to be power four Conference champions okay barring something completely unforeseen Allah Memphis beating Florida state Florida State winning the ACC Memphis being undefeated therefore they have the head-to-head against Florida state so they they would be ahead but probably not even in that scenario is that likely okay I think the top four teams are going to be very cut and dry at number one given the scenario that we've already played out the SEC Champs it's the Georgia Bulldogs who I think are going to be around 12- one really good non-conference wins against Georgia Tech who I think's a b team Clemson who's one of the best teams in the ACC and the potential at large so Georgia in at 12- one as the number one overall Ceda number two the Ohio State Buckeyes 12- one the Big 10 Champs they will sit there and enjoy that byee before they go and play in the quarterfinals at number three the ACC Champions the Miami Hurricanes who I have at 11 and two remember 12- one 12- one 11 and two they have 13 data points to account for of of course with victory in the conference Championship game Miami goes from 10-2 to 11- two they are the ACC Champs they are the number three overall seed and at number four the Big 12 Champs the Utah Utes who are also 11 and two those are your top four teams those are your four teams with the buy this is where it starts to get very interesting in the upcoming playoff expansion at number five runner up of the Big 10 Championship the Oregon Ducks the Oregon Ducks sitting there 11 to1 in the Teams 5 thru 8 in the playoffs with home games will be…. regular season lost the Big 10 title they're sitting at 11- two they lost to Ohio State great game still get the number five game five seed against the G5 champion who will get to here in just a moment at number six also hosting a college football playoff game in the opening round the Texas Longhorns who at 10 and three were the runners of in the SEC Championship game are you starting to sense a trend here are you sensing a trend yes I think the committee is going to reward teams and not penalize teams that play in the Big 10 in the SEC Championship game so while Texas might come into Conference Championship Saturday as say the number six ranked team and lose to Georgia who's the number one overall seed it's not really going to make a huge difference Texas isn't going to be penalized for having played an additional game why because the team that I have at number seven the Alabama Crimson tied 10 and two overall the SEC team that finished in third place just a little bit outside the conference Championship title game for the SEC but still in as an at large Texas played on conference Championship Saturday and while they have more losses than Alabama they get the benefit of the doubt they sitting there in the six seed bamas in as the number seven seed at number eight the Penn State Nittany Lions also out of the Big 10 also the third place team in the Big 10 also at 10 and two those are the four teams that I Envision having home playoff games two of the four played in a conference Championship game the other two got to sit at home and chill in the conference Championship weekend at number nine the Notre Dame Fighting Irish Teams 9-12 in the playoffs will be… you're going to sit there and say Notre Dame that's interesting first we've heard of them of course no Conference Championship and I think the committee will evaluate their schedule and they will not look upon Notre Dame as favorably as the 10in two teams that sit right in front of them Alabama and Penn State have a chance for massive wins against playoff caliber teams who is that win going to be for Notre Dame Notre Dame does host Florida State on November 9th they have to go to USC on November 30th that'll be a tough game on the road USC Fringe top 25 team maybe they're better maybe they're not as good we'll find out as the season goes along and they play at Texas A&M in week one in the event in which Notre Dame's undefeated I wouldn't be surprised at all if they are hosting a playoff game but in the event in which they lose two which is where I think they're going to end up at 10 and two then they're not going to have a ton of great wins at their disposal yeah win against Louisville good win win against A&M potentially good win win at SC good win potentially win against Florida State at home good win but they also could lose a couple of those games which would obviously weak weaken their resume they're going to have to travel in my opinion on the road in week one of the college football playoff at number 10 the ol Miss Rebels who also at 10- two finished fourth in the SEC yes schedule's very good but the strength of schedule not quite as good yes there's some tough games in there for sure games against LSU game against Georgia in the event in which they beat Georgia we could be having a completely different conversation but the schedule for Old Miss relatively speaking is pretty manageable so at 10 and two you would think yeah they'd probably be in Prime position to host a playoff game at VA Hemingway but I don't think that's necessarily going to happen I think ol Miss is in the playoff but they'll have to go on the road because their regular season schedule is not quite as difficult as Penn State and as Alabama who sit currently right now at s and at 8 moving on to team number 11 the 11 seed and yet another from the Southeastern Conference I think the LSU Tigers are going to be in position with two wins against Big 10 teams potentially against USC against a UCLA and even though UCLA might not be a very good football team maybe UCL USC is maybe they're not what have you doesn't really matter I think those two games when being measured against a team that might have finished fourth in the Big 10 will give LSU the benefit of the doubt plus they have played an SEC schedule they're going to have some fireworks and they're going to have some good wins at their disposal wins like Oklahoma win potentially against Alabama win potentially against Old Miss who sits at number 10 LSU has a lot of big opportunities on their schedule and most of those opportunities come in Baton Rouge so I think LSU nine and3 10- two has a chance to still get in as an at large even if they're in fifth place in the SEC and then finally the 12 seed in the initial 12 team playoff the G5 champion this year I'm going with the Memphis Tigers the champions of the American Athletic Conference now I don't think Memphis is going to be undefeated I think Memphis might at the end of the season be 12- one potentially 11- two I don't think their record's going to be as good as Liberties just gonna be honest with you I think Liberty has a cakewalk schedule and the committee last year acknowledged that wins and losses wins and losses resum very different from wins and loss record okay so if they're sitting there undefeated sure it's an easy conversation but you're measuring an undefeated Liberty team with the strength of schedule that's in the 120s against a Memphis team that went and played against another playoff Contender at Florida State maybe they measure up exactly how they farare there played against a really high quality UTSA team on the road played at a really good two-lane team on the road and won the most competitive conference in the G5 over the last handful of years I think Memphis will be given the benefit of out this year given the way Liberty performed last year I don't think we need to evaluate teams and say well if they're 13 and0 they are the best that's not the case Memphis will have challenged themselves and therefore might have a chance even in loss to prove that they along in the college football playoffs so a reminder number one Georgia number two Ohio State number McElroy’s Top 12 CFP prediction three Miami number four Utah those are your buys number five Oregon number six Texas number seven Alabama number eight Penn State those are the four teams that will host home playoff games and then teams that have to go on the road in the college football playoff number nine Notre Dame number 10 ol Miss number 11 LSU and number 12 Memphis champions of the American Athletic to sum everything up that's five from the SEC that I think will make the initial 12 team playoff feels like a lot feels like a little let us know I really think the sec's depth and the fact that you're going to have a bunch of teams with pretty dang good records and pretty good resumés gonna have them well positioned so would you take an LSU say at nine and three 10-2 against potentially a 10-2 Iowa i' take LSU every day of the week in that scenario personal opinion I think LSU has better Personnel than Iowa and more often the not would win that game if they played on a neutral site that's my own personal thought but I'll be curious to see how the committee reacts are they going to be comfortable putting five SEC teams in just three big 10 or do they feel like they need to split it up amongst the Big 10 in the SEC or will they be in a scenario where they look at the ACC which in this simulation only gets one team in Florida state would be on the outside looking in as would Clemson but both those teams I Envision at this point like a N9 and3 seasons for both Clemson and for Florida State what about the Big 12 they had only one team in as well well I referenced the Carnage that I expect in that league so many different games that might be decided by a touchdown or less and having six or seven different teams that are capable of beating any team in the league on any one given night is going to be tough to handicap that's why I think there's going to be too many losses in the loss column for some of their contenders which is why I think the Big 12 only gets one in so to sum it up five for the SEC three for the Big 10 Notre Dame gets in one from the G5 is Memphis and then the Big 12 and the ACC get only one representative here in the 12 team playoff in year number one that'll do it for us here at always call Triple I'm sure all of you will have consumed the last 38 39 minutes of prognostication and probably taking it in stride I'm sure there's no strong or visceral reaction to any of the things that we've come to in the last handful of minutes I'm sure everyone agrees with all of our decisions but hey that's what's fun about it and these things could be five for five like they were last year or they could be horribly wrong that's the beauty if you disagree it's all good we'll agree to disagree McElroy’s National Championship pick let's just see how the season plays out we'll be fascinating it's going to be a great year and a lot of fun to evaluate so to have a little bit more fun I'll tell you my national champion pick I'm taking the Ohio State Buckeyes to win the national championship here in 20124 they have I think a super Dynamic Run game the defense has a chance to be elite and I still believe that the offensive line even though they're are question marks I still think the offensive line is going to be plenty good enough with Chip Kelly calling the plays in The Run game to be able to complement what they want to be on the perimeter with the super talented weapons that they have at wide receiver so the Ohio State Buckeyes over the George bulldogs for the national title that'll do it for us here at always college football so for all of us here at ACF for Mark Jake Jack the other Jack I'm Greg thanks so much for subscribing for liking for supporting the show and continue to tell your friends about all the hard work that we're putting in to making sure you have a great destination for college football content multiple times a week so for all of us here at always college football we'll see you next time and remember it's always college football hey guys it's Greg maroy thanks for watching Always college football make sure you like rate and subscribe to ESPN's YouTube channel and wherever you listen to your podcast