KATC Weather Forecast 6pm 09-09-24

>> WELCOME BACK. PREPARE FOR HURRICANE ARRIVING WEDNESDAY. THAT IS THE BOTTOM LINE FOR MOST OF ACADIANA. STILL CAN'T TELL YOU WHERE THAT 50 MILE, 60 MILE WIDE SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS, MOST DAMAGING WINDS AND THE WORST WEATHER IS GOING TO BE BUT ANYWHERE IN ACADIANA IS GOING TO BE FAIR GAME. SO LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME OF THE FACTORS THAT WE'RE GOING TO BE DEALING WITH AN THIS IS GOING TO BE THE BIGGEST ONE, THIS DRY AIR AND WIND SHEAR THAT IS SITTING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE AT LEAST GULF STATES, THIS IS GOING TO BE RETREATING A LITTLE BIT. SO WE DO EXPECT THIS STORM TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT COULD GO THROUGH A RAPID INTENSIFICATION CYCLE. >> COME TUESDAY, BUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, IT'S GOING TO BE ENCOUNTERING SOME OF THIS DRY AIR AND SHEER AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER THINKS THAT THE STORM WILL LEVEL OFF PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WHICH NOW IS EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY 2 AT LANDFALL. SO NOT MESSING AROUND WITH THIS SYSTEM. REMEMBER, LILI WAS A CATEGORY ONE IN ACADIANA. GUSTAF WAS A CATEGORY ONE IN ACADIANA AND WE HAD WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND A LOT OF DAMAGE WITH THOSE STORMS. SO THERE'S NO SUCH THING AS A WEAK CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. AND THIS ONE FORECAST TO BE A 2 AND SPOTS NOW 3 COULD BE ON THE TABLE AS WELL. MOST OF THE RAIN THAT WE'RE SEEING RIGHT NOW OFFSHORE. WE'LL SEE SOME OF THIS RAIN TRYING TO MOVE IN TOMORROW, BUT IT'S NOT GOING TO BE ANY RAIN THAT'S GOING TO SLOW US DOWN IN OUR HURRICANE PREPARATIONS. THE WINDS NOT GONNA COME UP UNTIL WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WAY LOOKS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY. WE HAD A BURSTING OUT EARLIER TODAY, BUT WE'RE STARTING TO GET A BETTER DEFINED CENTER. BUT ALSO THERE COULD BE SOME DRIER AIR ALREADY TRYING TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. THE QUESTION IS, WILL CUT ITSELF OFF FROM THAT DRIER AIR COMING IN SEAL ITSELF OFF AND THEN GET GOING AND GO TO A CATEGORY 2 OR 3 PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL. WE CANNOT TELL YOU THAT QUITE YET. HERE'S THE CURRENT. SO 65 MILE PER HOUR WINDS IS DRIFTING TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 EXPECTED MOVE MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME AND THEN NORTH EASILY AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER THOSE UPPER LEVEL WINDS. BUT SOMETIMES. >> WHEN YOU HIT THOSE UPPER LEVEL WINDS, IT ENHANCES THE HURRICANE AND THEN IT EVENTUALLY LEADS TO THE DEMISE OF THE HURRICANES ON THE HURRICANE CENTER. HAS THIS GOING TO A CATEGORY 2 TOMORROW NIGHT, EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 100 MILE PER HOUR WINDS AND MAINTAINING THAT STATUS AT LANDFALL. AND AGAIN, THE YELLOW IS SHOWING YOU THE RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. THE YARD RIGHT HERE, HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. AND WHEN WE GET CLOSER TO TOMORROW WILL DROP THE CONE AND JUST SHOW YOU THAT WIND FIELD. SO AGAIN, THE WIND FIELD AND HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR OUTSIDE OF THE CONE. SO YOU ALWAYS KEEP THAT IN MIND. NOW THE HURRICANE CENTER AS THE CONE STILL OF THE CENTER LINE. SO GOING THROUGH VERMILION PARISH THAT HASN'T CHANGED OVER THE SAY 12, 18 HOURS OR SO. EVEN THOUGH THE GRAPH MODEL INDICATING A LITTLE BIT FARTHER TO THE EAST. BUT THE GRAPH MODEL IS SHOWING A LANDFALL SOONER THAN LATER PER IT COMPARED TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. NOW, THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INDICATING A LANDFALL SOME TIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. SO THIS IS WHAT WE HAVE RIGHT NOW. HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR CAMERON VERMILION COAST OF LIBERIA AND SAINT MARY PARISHES INLAND. WE HAVE HURRICANE WATCHES AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR ACADIA LAFAYETTE, NORTHERN VERMILION PORTIONS OF IBERIA, UPPER SAINT MARTIN PARISH AND ALSO LOWER SAINT MARTIN PARISH AS WELL. AND THE NORTHERN MOST PORTIONS OF SAINT MARY PARISH. SO EXPECT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. THAT'S 50, 60 MILE PER HOUR. WINDS GUSTS 80. WE MIGHT SEE GUST 170 OR 80 MILES SUSTAINED WINDS WHERE THAT CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SO THAT'S WHAT WE'RE ON THE LOOK FOR A LOOK OUT FOR STORM SURGE WARNINGS FOR THE END JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE LOUISIANA COAST LINE UP TO A 5 TO 10 FOOT SURGE. BUT IT'S NOT GOING TO BE THIS WIDE. IT'S GOING TO NEAR AND EAST OF WHERE THAT CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THAT WOULD BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN VERMILION BAY DOWN THROUGH TAMPA LEADER BAY. BUT WE'RE GOING TO SEE INUNDATION LEVELS THAT ARE GONE. PUT HIGHWAY 82 UNDER WATER. WE'RE TALKING 6 FEET RIGHT HERE, BUMPING UP TO HIGHWAY 82 AND THE ROADWAYS ABOUT 3 OR 4 FEET. SO YOU'RE NOT GONNA BE ABLE TO DRIVE THROUGH THAT. AND THE WATER, BY THE WAY, STARTS COMING UP TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AND THEN WE'LL SEE STORM SURGE VALUES IN THE 6 FOOT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF COASTAL IBERIA AND SAINT MARY PARISH. AND THEN YOU START SEEING RED. THAT'S UP TO 9 FEET OF WATER SHOWING VERY CLOSE TO THE FRANKLIN AREA. BALDWIN AREA AS WELL. AGAIN, FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, MOSTLY COASTAL MARSHES. AND MOST OF EVERYBODY ON THIS TEST RIDGE SHOULD BE OKAY. BUT THAT'S IF THIS STAYS A CATEGORY 2 TO 3 OR 4, WHICH WE'RE NOT ANTICIPATING THE STORM SURGE VALUES ARE GOING TO BE OBVIOUSLY HIGHER, MUCH HIGHER THAN 5 TO 10 FEW, MAYBE CLOSER TO 15. SO WE'LL SEE. SO HERE'S THE GRAPH MODEL. THIS IS NEW TONIGHT. GRAPH MODELS COMING IN AND HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT FARTHER TO THE EAST FOR 24 HOURS STRAIGHT. IT WAS A VERMILION COMING INTO LAFAYETTE. GOING BACK TO YESTERDAY. THE LATEST NOW HAS THE CENTER GOING A LITTLE BIT FARTHER TO THE EAST AND USUALLY THE GRAPH IS THE LEADER OF THE MODELS. AND THEN WE SEE THE EUROPEAN AND THE TROPICAL MODELS FOLLOWING SUIT. SO THIS IS MORE. THIS IS WORSE FOR SAME AREA, PERIOD, PARIS AND A LITTLE BIT BETTER FOR LAFAYETTE PARISH. YOU WANT TO BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS STORM AS MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS IN ON THE EASTERN SIDE IS ALONG WITH THE TORNADOES AS WELL. AND THE BLINDING RAINFALL. BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP AND MAYBE OUT OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THEN SUNSHINE RETURNING AND WE'LL HAVE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO CLEAN UP AT ASSESSED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SO THAT IS THE GOOD NEWS THAT AS FOR THE WINDS YOU SEE THERE PICKING UP LITTLE BREEZY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, HERE WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT'S WHEN THE HIGH WINDS PICK UP AND AGAIN, THE CENTER OF THE STORM. THIS IS BASED ON THE GRAPH MODEL. BUT THIS IS WHAT WE NEED TO PREPARE FOR 50, 60 MILE PER HOUR WINDS. AND THEN IF YOU'RE NEAR THE CENTER, MAYBE GUSTS IN THE 90 MILE PER HOUR RANGE. SO WE'LL SEE HOW THAT PLAYS OUT. AND THEN WINDS DYING DOWN AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS FOR RAINFALL, THE HURRICANE CENTER CALLING FOR 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN, ISOLATED 12. THAT'S GOING TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTER. AND THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT THE GRAPH MODEL IS DOING. BUT THIS HOT RAIN STRIPE COULD BE BACK TO THE WEST OR TO THE EAST AND NOTICE WILL BE SOME AREAS THAT DON'T SEE A WHOLE LOT OF RAIN. SO HERE IS YOUR ACADIANA IMPACT TIMELINE. THE WATER BEGINS TO COME UP TOMORROW. IT MAXIMIZES AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL WINDOW FOR FLOODING IS GOING TO BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. WIND DAMAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. BUT ENDING EARLY MORNING HOURS OF YOUR THURSDAY AND THEN THE RISK OF TORNADOES, MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. BUT THESE NUMBERS ARE PRETTY HIGH GIVEN WHAT WE HAVE DIRECT BLOW. AND THIS COULD BE WORSE THAN HURRICANE BACK IN 202. AND HURRICANE GUSTAV BACK INTO OUR WAY. SO BE READY. PREPARE FOR HURRICANE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER WHERE A SMOOTH SAILING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NICE,