Kamala Harris DOMINATES 2024 POLL PREDICTIONS After FIRST PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE

hello everyone and welcome to ballot base in today's video we're diving into the presidential debate on 11th of September during the initial presidential debate Donald Trump clearly outperformed kamla Harris he effectively implemented his debate strategy demonstrating strong leadership and effectively rebutting Harris's points Harris who has been trailing in the polls desperately needed a standout performance to close the gap but unfortunately she did not manage to make a memorable impression this analysis explores the updated electoral scenario for 2024 considering the results and consequences of this crucial debate which might be the only direct confrontation between these leading candidates let's examine the distribution of electoral support starting with the states that each candidate is likely to win by a significant margin expected to be over 15 percentage points in the Republican heartlands Donald Trump is predicted to claim victories across a broad section of the country his influence remains strong in Utah Wyoming Idaho Montana North Dakota South Dakota and most of Nebraska apart from its second district his reach extends further to Kansas Oklahoma Missouri Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Tennessee Kentucky West Virginia Indiana South Carolina Alaska and the second district of Maine bringing him a total of 126 electoral votes on the Democratic front Kamala Harris is expected to perform well in States including Washington California Hawaii Vermont Massachusetts Connecticut Rhode Island Maryland the District of Columbia and the first district of Maine which would collectively contribute 109 electoral votes to her tally shifting Focus to the more competitive states that still show a slight preference for one candidate over the other with expected Victory margins ranging from 7 to 15 percentage points point the landscape continues to evolve what do you think was the most impactful moment of the first presidential debate and why do you believe it could influence the election outcome share your thoughts below the Midwestern states particularly Iowa and Ohio have seen a significant shift over the last 9 years once considered Battleground States in 2012 they now lean Republican thanks to Trump's influential political strategy in the political Landscapes of 2008 and 2012 voters in certain key States like Iowa and Ohio threw their support behind Barack Obama marking a noticeable shift from their earlier preference for George W Bush in 2004 this pattern took another dramatic turn in 2016 When Donald Trump captured these states with a surprising swing Iowa moved 15 points and Ohio nearly 12 points to the right delivering Trump decisive victories contrary to some predictions for the 2020 elections that saw Joe Biden as a competitive candidate in in these areas Trump maintained his stronghold winning with margins nearly mirroring those from four years prior by 2022 the political momentum continued as Republican governors in both States secured reelection by impressive 20o margins as future elections Loom it appears that these states might still lean towards the Republican side particularly favoring the former president moving down to the southern us Texas has been a focal point of interest just four years ago the Democratic party harbored hopes of flipping the state blue despite early indications of a neck and neck race showing Trump ahead by only a slim 1% margin he ultimately secured a victory with a margin that was six times larger than expected looking forward projections indicate he could achieve a win by double digits potentially surpassing a 15% lead a margin not seen since Mitt Romney's victory in 2012 for the time being Texas is EXP expected to stay firmly in the red in Florida the political climate has also seen significant shifts once known as a crucial Battleground State its Competitive Edge has dulled with Democrats finding it increasingly challenging to win the 2020 elections underscored this change As Trump not only repeated his 2016 Victory but did so with an even larger margin this performance was noted as the most significant by any candidate from either major party in the state over the last 16 years future projection now suggest that the victory margin could exceed seven points marking the strongest performance for a major party nominee in Florida since the late 1980s this trend cements Florida's status as a strong red state in the upcoming electoral Cycles starting with states that are predicted to strongly support Trump he is just 51 electoral votes away from securing a second term this situation outlines a clear route to victory for him if the current forecasts are accurate come election day in state that tend to favor Democrats it appears that many of these which Joe Biden won by large margins in 2020 might not back Camala Harris as robustly for example Oregon despite its location between two traditionally liberal states is showing signs of a shift away from its usual Democratic leanings New York typically a reliable state for Democrats also seems less certain for Harris potentially marking the first time a Democrat hasn't won decisively there since 1988 with Michael ducus New Jersey is facing its own hurdles due to recent controversies surrounding Senator Bob Menendez which could impact voter sentiment similarly Delaware might turn into a contentious State without Biden on the ticket and Illinois is facing a similar situation altogether these Dynamics put Harris at a potential total of 181 electoral votes shifting our view to the Battleground States these areas account for a critical 138 electoral votes and are expected to have razor thin margins possibly within a five-point swing the current political map shows significant changes from the 202's election demonstrating a shift in voter alignment since then States like Minnesota Colorado Virginia New Hampshire and Maine which previously supported Biden solidly are now posing greater challenges for Harris the focus of the upcoming election is now on what are known as lean States for both major parties where Victory margins are anticipated to be between two to seven points these states are particularly susceptible to electoral surprises and the intense competition there underscores the unpredictable nature of these elections the critical importance of each vote in these states highlights The Fierce and uncertain battle to secure the final electoral tally our exploration of the Electoral landscape begins in Colorado where current trends suggest Harris has a favorable lead of nearly 7 percentage points this is quite significant although not quite the landslide that Joe Biden achieved with his 14-point victory in the previous election Colorado inching towards a solid blue designation previously saw Hillary Clinton win by a margin of 4.9% just four years earlier Harris's lead therefore is expected to align more with Clinton's performance than Biden's likely securing her the state's 10 electoral votes however she might face more of a challenge than Biden did in securing these votes as we shift our Focus to Maine the Electoral scenario looks promising for the vice president as the state's two atlarge electoral votes seem to be leaning Democratic Maine which supported Clinton during her challenging 2016 campaign may still present an opportunity for Trump though his chances would likely have been Slimmer if Biden had stayed in the race with Kam haris now in the running the Democrats appear to have a regained foothold in the state next We examined New Hampshire where the Electoral contest is expected to be extremely close Hillary Clinton previously won New Hampshire by a slim margin of 0.37% making it one of the tightest races narrower than Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and only slightly more decisive than Michigan in that election year looking to the 2024 elections Trump is predicted to face a slight dip in performance compared to his last campaign yet he is poised to offer stiff competition to Harris New Hampshire still categorized as leaning blue reflects the intense campaigning by Harris highlighting her strategic focus on this state while the state currently seems poised to favor Harris its history of strong performances by Trump makes it a critical Battleground to watch turning our gaze toward the southern edge of the United States we find ourselves examining New Mexico this state swung into the Democratic column in 2008 when Barack Obama triumphed by a 15 margin a feat no Democrat including Obama himself in his 2012 reelection has since matched New Mexico is witnessing demographic shifts notably among its Hispanic population who are increasingly aligning with conservative values like other minority groups this trend hints at a slow but steady shift towards the Republican Party despite projections that kamla Harris will win New Mexico the Democratic hold on the state seems to be weakening in the core of the Midwest Minnesota has been a democratic Bastion since 1972 when George McGovern ran as their presidential candidate Minnesota was the only state to resist Ronald Reagan's Landslide victory in 1984 which otherwise swept across the United States de feeding Walter Mondale today Minnesota and its neighboring Midwestern states are trending rightward although Minnesota remains somewhat more liberal than States like Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania Cala Harris's strategic selection of Tim Wells as her running mate reinforces her favorable standing in this region this choice is particularly poignant as it likely swayed the state away from Trump who in 2016 came close to winning here trailing by less than two percentage points a stark contrast to Obama's nearly eight-point lead in 2012 consequently Minnesota now tilts slightly towards the Democrats largely due to wells's influence on the ticket as the Electoral state takes heighten the spotlight shifts to the eight most hotly contested States including Virginia and Nebraska's second district to clinch the presidency kamla Harris must secure winds in four pivotal States Wisconsin Michigan Pennsylvania and Virginia without which her path to Victory looks daunting conversely Donald Trump could potentially reach the necessary 270 electoral votes by capturing Pennsylvania North Carolina and Georgia these three eastern states are crucial for tilting the Electoral balance in his favor but he might also succeed by winning a mix of States from both the Rust Belt and the Sun Belt this underscores the Strategic significance of these areas in shaping the Electoral landscape if you've made it this far and are a part of the 99% who haven't yet subscribed now is the perfect time to hit that subscribe button your support means the world and helps the channel grow when we look at the states where Donald Trump is expected to have an advantage North Carolina stands out historically this state has leaned Republicans supporting the GOP candidate in recent elections Trump edged out a win against Biden by a narrow 1% margin before that in 2016 he had a slightly more comfortable lead of around 4% against Clinton considering these past Trends it seems unlikely that Kamala Harris could turn the tide in North Carolina a state that even Joe Biden couldn't win in the last election reflecting on the 2020 election it's clear that Joe Biden was perhaps the strongest Contender the Democrats could have put forward yet he was unable to secure North Carolina as we look ahead to the 2024 election the prospects for the Democrats appear even more challenging with commala Harris running the historical voting patterns suggest that her chances of winning this state are quite low shifting our Focus to the Sun Belt particularly Arizona and Georgia these two states were Battlegrounds that saw extremely close races in the 2020 election with Biden winning Georgia by a margin of just 0.24% and Arizona by 0.31% currently Trends indicate a stronger leaning towards Trump compared to the previous election cycle despite Biden being the strongest candidate for the Democrats in 2020 and barely clinching these states the forecast for 2024 positions Trump in a much more favorable light unlike the last election where pre-election polls had predicted a Biden win the current polls are typically in favor of trump and they often tend to underestimate his actual level of support it is expected that both Arizona and Georgia will swing back towards Trump potentially by margins of 2% to 4% reversing their 2020 outcomes when we turn our gaze to the Midwest particularly Pennsylvania it's clear that this state may play a decisive role in the coming elections Pennsylvania often referred to as the Keystone State hosted a critical debate that saw president Trump receiving positive feedback especially significant amid the Region's ongoing debates over fracking kamla Harris's stance on this issue may not have sat well with local sentiments potentially pushing voters away if they fear a ban under her Administration this could shift Pennsylvania towards favoring the Republicans and my prediction is that Trump will clinch the state by a slim margin of just over two points though it could be tighter remember Trump won Pennsylvania by a narrow margin of nearly 1% in 2016 and Joe Biden barely won it in 2020 it seems likely to swing back to the Republican column this election cycle moving on to the remaining Battlegrounds which include four states and one congressional district each is poised on the edge of a decision by less than two points leaning slightly towards one candidate or the other starting with Nebraska's second district I foresee a modest lead for Harris Virginia is another tight race where Harris might just Edge out a victory by the narrowest of margins despite Biden's victory in Virginia in the 2020 TI elections the Republicans made a strong comeback in 2021 securing the governorship and other key positions Statewide for the first time since 2010 this Resurgence presents a significant challenge for Harris though current trends suggest a slight Advantage for her in Virginia Nevada presents an interesting case traditionally a democratic stronghold with consistent victories since 2004 it's showing signs of leaning towards Donald Trump a surprising twist as he previously lost the state despite past losses to Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden by 2.4% in the last two elections Trump has been leading in recent polls throughout the year my analysis points to Trump potentially winning Nevada by a narrow margin positioning him as the provisional front runner in this state wrapping up political analysis focusing on the states of Wisconsin and Michigan Michigan generally shows a preference for liberal policies more so than Wisconsin and Pennsylvania with Wisconsin notably leaning conservative this Dynamic however could shift slightly in favor of the Democrats since KLA Harris has chosen Tim Wells as her vice presidential running mate Wisconsin's proximity to Minnesota might pull its political Tendencies slightly to the left more than what is seen in Pennsylvania despite these factors it's doubtful that this will be enough to secure a democratic win in these states my analysis suggests that Donald TR Trump will likely win both Wisconsin and Michigan mirroring his success from the 2016 elections typically the rust Bel states have moved as a unit politically which was observed in 2020 when Joe Biden narrowly won these areas yet with Kamala Harris in the race Trump could potentially surpass his earlier performance against Hillary Clinton from 8 years ago turning our attention to the first presidential debate between kamla Harris and Donald Trump it seems Harris did not deliver the strong performance necessary to tip the scales in her favor Donald Trump continues to lead as the primary Contender for the 2024 presidential race potentially securing 312 electoral votes to the vice president's 226 this would Mark the weakest performance by a Democratic candidate since Michael Dukakis in 1988 stay tuned for more updates as we keep a close watch on this intriguing electoral battle if you found this breakdown helpful don't forget to subscribe to our channel for more insightful political commentary thanks for watching