A Political Q&A with Former White House Chief of Staff Reince Priebus

so we're doing something a little atypical on today's Off the Wall atypical this is trigger warning up front before the episode happens I think typically we've liked to do episodes where we're talking about wealth planning issues things that are relevant and things that we have experienced talking with clients about but I think it's important that as a planner one of the things I talk about a lot is tax planning for example where retirement planning when do you need to start taking your rmd your required minimum distribution and all of that is determined by legislation by what is the tax law and who decides who's the legislation it's politicians our episode today we have reince priebus on who obviously is a supporter and promoter of Republicans and he's going to be sharing his view on what's been happening in the elections and what's happening in the Republican party because it all kind of falls under for example example when Republicans were in control of Congress and the White House they passed the tax cuts and jobs act in 2017 that had a really big impact on what people's taxes were and how much they were paying so there's really a tie-in for us I think in seeing okay what's happening in politics and how is that actually going to impact the everyday person both within wealth planning and then obviously and many other aspects of people's lives well the other thing too that a lot of what informs and drives the advice that we give in the wealth planning area is listening to opinions and Analysis of issues and using those points counterpoints multiple opinions to synthesize our own opinion and advice and that's one of the things we talk about at Monument all the time is we are all about straightforward unfiltered opinion and advice and that's our value proposition that's our differentiator nobody can imitate Our advice in our opinion no matter how hard they try Ai and so in the context of gathering information and listening to things and forming an opinion we thought that this would be a really interesting episode to get somebody's opinion half the people listening to it may agree with it half the people listening to this may disagree with it but everybody's an adult and can do with this information and opinion with what they want to but we are very conscious of our own confirmation bias and try to listen to all sides of everything Politics as you said drives so much of what happens in this country that we thought this would be a fascinating episode so with that let's go ahead and cut over to the episode The Following presentation by Monument Wealth Management LLC is intended for general information purposes only please listen to additional important disclosures at the end of this presentation foreign welcome to Off the Wall a podcast aimed at helping you answer the question what is the point of my wealth and what steps can I take to make that Vision a reality with over 25 years of combined experience and wealth management David Armstrong co-founder of Monument wealth management and Jessica Gibbs vice president and partner at Monument our skilled at helping people think through these challenging but important questions interested in learning more connect with us on Instagram at Monument wealth and follow along at monumentwealthmanagement.com now here are your hosts Dave and Jessica [Music] welcome to Off the Wall today we have a great guest Jessica nice to see you we're live in studio again yes we're great tell everybody about our guest day because this is pretty exciting I do want to say before you introduce the guest that here at Monument we always have a non-partisan perspective but we also really work hard on making sure that we're hearing every side of the story and given that it's Washington DC and we just had the midterm elections we thought it would be really interesting to do a couple interviews with people who could talk about what actually is going on in politics what's actually happening as a result of the election and today we have a great guest who's going to talk about that with us politics is always fun to talk about I feel like it's everyone's past time but I think where politics meets the road is when it comes to particularly for our clients it's tax policy or other things that really are impacting people's life their wealth with that in mind Our Guest today is reince priebus I'm sure pretty much everyone listening to us has heard his name but just in case you haven't if they can pronounce it it's a different issue I was told don't think about it as pints pints of beer pints rights that's it good I've never messed it up since there you go welcome Ryan reince was the former white house chief of staff for president Trump and he also served as chairman of the Republican National Committee from 2011 to 2017. so welcome reince happy to be on the program today with you both it's exciting to be back in Alexandria and you're right talk about Past Times politics in Washington DC is it and certainly we live in Wild political times probably the most Wild on modern history so here we are we purposely did this after Thanksgiving so it wouldn't cause any arguments at the Thanksgiving day but it is always really interesting to hear people's perspective because I'm just gonna rough it out here but half the country's Democrat half the country's Republican so one side doesn't agree with the other a lot but I think listening to different sides and understanding what's happened and learning some inside baseball and things like that it's interesting so I'm excited to hear what you have to say on some politics stuff you bet I would imagine we're sitting around the dinner table and what happened in the 2022 midterms what is your take on what happened I think it's complicated like most things in life and you're right David people know out there that we live in a political time where there's hardly any middle left anymore what I mean by that is in 1976 if you look at polling from that time 36 of the American public called themselves Independents and that wasn't leaning republican-leaning Democrat but we're talking about true Independence 36 today that number is nine percent and so when you only have nine percent of the general public that's truly in play you're basically looking at how you're going to slice and dice that nine percent so these elections nowadays are coming down to what party can micro Target and turn out that nine percent we don't have toss-up districts anymore in the United States very few look at it this way just to generalize for folks that are listening there are probably about five percent of all of the congressional districts in play in the United States so think about that if you are elected today in Congress in the state legislature somewhere in Pennsylvania Wisconsin you have a 95 chance of winning in the most vitriolic political times in modern history which means that if your base messaging if you're sticking to your talking points you've got a better chance of getting reelected and waking up tomorrow so what happened I think a couple things happen number one I think that the Democrats did a very good job of using wedge issues to turn out that very small slice in the middle they swamped Republicans in University towns and blue counties Across America and the Republican Party cannot accept anymore to get less than 30 percent in places like Madison Wisconsin places in California in New York in counties All Over America because getting swamped in those little University towns means you're not winning a state like Wisconsin where only 20 000 votes decides the outcome of the election and let me just drill it down another way look at what's happening in a state like Wisconsin and you can put in Michigan you can put in Pennsylvania the same thing we have a Grace first Senate in Wisconsin where the candidates raised and spent over a hundred million dollars combined we had a race for governor in Wisconsin where the candidates raised and spent over a hundred million dollars so now you've got 200 million dollars which actually it was more than that for the sake of this 200 million dollars fighting over 50 000 votes and so polling is coming in and they're trying to measure what are 50 000 people going to do when you drop 200 million dollars on their head and it's not just basic messaging guns pro-life it is micro targeting at 50 000 people on their door knowing everything about those people we know what beer they drink we know what car they drive we know how many kids they have and now you take 200 million dollars and you're micro messaging and you're turning out those voters the Democrats did a good job of finding people who were very upset over the abortion position the Democrats did a good job raising money and the last thing is this and we can get into these topics I think it's a good setup for the next questions that you have but my opinion I think the American people have glazed over the vitriolic negative nastiness that's taking over our politics and they've decided in this past election that yes I agree that we're on the wrong track I agree Joe Biden is taking this country in the wrong direction but I don't agree that all those horrible things you're saying transfer onto this person running for governor in Wisconsin or Michigan or you name the state so this glazed over feeling that this country is having in regard to our politics I think affected the 2022 midterm election in a very profound way so why wasn't there the red wave that people talked about coming into the midterms because of I think a lot of those things I think that in the past our elections we could look at how people felt about the country in 1994 or how people felt about the country in 2010 and people tended to hold accountable the party that wasn't in power and mainly apparently not responsible for how they felt where the country was going but I think in this case people felt like our politics were so poisonous that people aren't sure what to believe when it comes to what they're being told on TV the university towns finding a thousand people to go find 10 people that are ticked off about the Dobbs decision in a supreme court and swamping the Republican party in a way that they haven't seen before going down 180 000 votes in Dane County and you can substitute any big University Town you want in America they did a good job of that and when you're only dealing with about 25 to 50 000 people that are in play that thirty thousand vote margin and one County alone makes a huge difference that's really what our politics are coming down to which is why I started the conversation with the premise that very few people in America are deciding elections for everybody else because everyone else is generally already picked their team they're not in play they've decided they're off the radar they're not people the parties worried about that's what's happening that's interesting but if it's so clear that that's what's happening and there's only nine percent of the population that's going to sway a decision one way or the other I assume some of that has to do with some gerrymandering not a topic I want to get into but where does the Republican party go as a platform now if there's only those nine percent of the people that you can change their mind and it seems to me that based on what people thought was going to happen in the election didn't materialize to the level of house wins that they thought where does the Republican party start to change this messaging to capture the attention of those nine percent of people if those nine percent of the people resonated with what the Democrats were saying in November generally I think both parties are starting to figure out that I think the American people are tired of hating each other I agree I think that the American people are tired of this feeling that we've got 11 Senate campaigns across the country and it seems like every race is a decision between a anti-American left-wing socialist or you can choose the right wing radical person it can't be possible it could be that we've got two people who love America that don't agree with each other and we need to fight on the level of ideas and policies again as to why a particular candidate would be a great American to put in Washington DC to represent these people is there a way to change our politics away from this I think it's going to be difficult because there's another factor in play in the media today there's a few things going on I don't have it in front of me if I had to second I can find it I took a picture of a poll that was on TV a couple weeks before the election oh send it to me we'll post it on our website okay yeah the poll showed when Americans were asked why do you think our politics have become so terrible in America number one with social media number two was just the media in general and here's why number one in America today you can believe what you want to believe but on top of it you can get fed what you want to believe based on whatever social media app star whatever you want to watch and listen to will feed whatever it is that you believe oh our clients are very familiar with that because we talk all the time about confirmation bias going out and seeking out the information that confirms your initial bias anyway so you're right and social media is just automatically doing that for you based on what you've already said you like and dislike and on top of it in America division is profit the unity is a loser there is no money in unity you do not see a split screen on CNN or MSNBC or you name it that is this unifying message it's division people don't write a book about the Republican party that says here are the great things about the Republican party no the book is here that 10 people or hear the 10 things are the worst things about the party and here's what I think you need to do to fix it and that book sells look at the people who write books that walked out of the White House the books that sell are not the books that talk about here are the great things that happen the books that sell are the books that dish all the dirt that sell all the horrible stories because division is profit and unity is a loser we're up against an enormous business model that is very difficult to overcome I don't recall seeing anything since I watched Mr Rogers as a kid that was unifying on TV if you even remember what that show yeah of course right yeah I'm just thinking about family-friendly Unity thing right that's a great point I think you are right I think there's just so much Division and it's about profitability and all those things but my belief is that whether it's politics or anything the greatest change always seems to happen when the pendulum is at the very top of its swing and coming back is now the time where you can see a candidate from either party I know you're going to hope it's the Republicans but either party could stand up and say I understand there's this nine percent middle but I actually believe that there's a 50 middle they've just chosen a side but they're probably reasonable people and if somebody stands up in this country and says I'm going to run for president on a unifying platform and I'm going to really concentrate on the things that are important for the progress in this country regardless of party could that candidate actually resonate with enough Americans to get elected as a middle Centrist candidate for the White House I think so not to be argumentative but I think it's important to know that when you look at successful candidates over the last few presidential Cycles they do run on issues that 70 percent of the American people generally agree with you look at George Bush you look at Barack Obama in 2008 he wasn't talking divisively he wasn't talking about issues that I think we as Republicans worry whether it be socialized medicine that's not what's on the campaign Trail when you think about America First and Donald Trump in 2016 although he represented a frustration that he was very clever and he believed it too by the way that he tapped into if you think about what is America first I get asked that all the time America First was basically three things that if I spelled them out to you and your listeners I think eighty percent of the people listening would agree with number one confront China who's ripping off the world number two build a border and protect the American worker number three stop endless Wars and bring our soldiers home to me right those are winners so when you think about Donald Trump and all the analysis basically his message of this America First confront these people who are ripping us off protect the American worker bring steel and aluminum back pay people more money bring industry back it's a very proud pro-american message and so my point to you on all of this is that to be successful those are the messages that work I just think when you go into midterms and you start slicing and dicing the electorate I think that's where we're starting to have breakdowns in communication with the American people speaking of Donald Trump I really am interested to hear your take on where you think the Republican party is going because I think in the past part of the Republican Party we've had the Tea Party you've had these different Wings within the party Donald Trump has obviously announced his skin to see to rerun for president but a lot of the candidates that he backed in the midterms for some of the higher profile races did not ultimately win so I'm curious if you think the Republican party will still have a faction that is trumpian or is moving away from Trump where you see the Republican party going I don't know where and who is going to run for president other than I know for sure that President Trump's running today because he's already announced and he's 20 to 25 points ahead of anyone else theoretically looking at running I do think though that we will end up with at least a reasonably large primary and have a real debate in our party the debate that you just outlined and we'll see where it goes I think as far as the deeper question which is whether the policies of America First are here to stay I think they are I think that they're very popular with the American people those three things I just outlined are not things that are going away in fact I would say one of the more baffling things that has happened recently this week depending on when this podcast is aired was Joe Biden's White House yesterday who refused to show support for the protesters in China in that particular case for people that you work with and I know you work with a lot of businesses and individuals the fact that he didn't stand up for those protesters through both Democrats and Republicans for a loop because you would think a president would say confront the CCP and praise the protesters who have a right to Freedom which using the mouthpiece of the president is something that any president of America who should stand up for freedom and opportunity and the values of democracy would do my point in going down this rabbit hole is that in spite of this conversation that we've had I do events all over the country with Democrats in front of Business Leaders big corporations universities and I'm astounded by the fact that the one thing that we have been able to agree on is China and Taiwan as a tributary of that and the fact that the president would not condemn the CCP was baffling to me my point in all this is that these issues aren't going anywhere I think that if you're investing in China if you have a business and you're listening to this right now and you've got an office in China and you're making something in China because it's cheaper and you can work it out better and import it somewhere else and eventually get it back to the United States there is going to be a war in regard to Bringing these activities back to the United States maybe to Mexico maybe other places that are more friendly United States but I would advise anyone listening to this that if you're investing in China there's one thing that Republicans and Democrats agree on generally and that's China it is a losing long-term proposition I think the military agrees with you too not just Republicans but an interesting thing I could pick a couple things I'll just pick one as an example because you talked about the three defining aspects that 80 agree with and the Border was one of the things that came up but it seemed to me that if 80 of The Americans agree that strong borders are a priority there was a huge component of the American population that voted against that in the 2020 election what is it that drives a voter to say even the way I agree with that I'm not going to vote for the person who stands up for that or conversely what is it that kept Joe Biden from saying yeah I'm all for a strong border too but that's what Joe Biden did that's what he said Biden's policies weren't in play in 2020. he got up there in front of debates and said he wants to protect the Border yeah I'm going to protect the Border I voted for the Border fence in 2006 or whenever it was and I did this and I did that but he said the things that he needed to say to blunt those issues in 2020. in 2022 if you're running for governor in Wisconsin that's not an issue if you're sitting in Sheboygan Wisconsin yeah you want a secure border but you're not necessarily believing that the governor of Wisconsin is going to have much to say about how they feel about the Border are the governor's Wisconsin's not going to have much to do about how much I'm paying for gas or inflation a lot of those National issues didn't come into play in 2022. I'm not suggesting that those are going to be the issues of 2024. I think some of them will be but I do think the point of that conversation is that in order to win elections you still need to appeal to those 70 percent issues that the American people will be moved by I think Joe Biden's gonna have a hard time winning if 80 percent of the American people think that we're on the wrong track is going to have a hard time it looks like it but then again it looked like there was going to be an easy win in November too and sure not to be repetitive but that's also the difference between running against the person most directly responsible for my inflation my gas and my groceries and the person running for governor in Idaho it just doesn't compute every time we come up around election you'll hear people saying like oh if this candidate wins I'm moving to Canada you hear that all the time I'm moving to Canada moving to Canada nobody ever does it right Canada we love Canada of course I think it would be a lovely place to live if somebody really chose to do it we battle a version of that ourselves in this industry our version of moving to Canada is if this candidate wins I'm selling all of my investments and I'm going to cash because I think the world will just go to hell it'll be terrible and we're always advising clients don't let your personal opinions about politics drive your investing decisions because emotional decision making never works out in the long run against the stock market which is essentially undefeated over a long period of time I like to say although it doesn't feel like that now knowing that we battle that version of the move to Canada syndrome I'm going to ask you a question that could be impossible to answer but I think you can what do you see as what is on the Republican legislative agenda for the next let's just say two years like the campaign cycle the next two years while the house has just changed what's on the agenda well there's not going to be a lot getting done in Washington DC given the fact that we've got a Democrat Senate and a democrat in the white house but so your opinion that democratic government is just going to be deadlock yeah absolutely but divided government's great it's statistically good for the stock market interesting okay and you think about faction in the Constitution this is exactly what our forefathers loved about faction and the stability that faction gives America I think the ping pong match going back and forth where it's all Democrat controlled then we're ping-ponging back to all Republic control that's instability stability is faction I would prefer to be in full control because I think that it's better to have lower taxes lower regulation I think it's better to be energy independent I think it's better to be strong overseas I think it's better to fund our military and pay our men and women in uniform a salary that is answer it with what they do every day I believe in all those things but the idea that faction is somehow problematic I think is wrong too I think that that brings great stability so I think what you're going to see from Republicans are you're going to see probably Kevin McCarthy lead an effort to show the American people what it is that we believe in whether it be taxes whether it be regulation whether it be gas and oil crime all the things that are problematic in our opinion facing America are all going to be part of a package that he laid out in his plan prior to getting the majority in the house so I think it's going to be hopefully more than symbolic but I think it's going to at least lay out a road map to the American people or what we could do if we had more Authority in Washington DC so we just said not much will get done what actually could get done what are some of the issues that there's so much consensus on there's actually a chance we could get something to the president's desk over the next two years anything I think there could be some issues I think energy I used to think that Joe Biden had some roots in being reasonable I think partly that's why he was elected because people thought well we might be a Democrat but he's not insane but it turned out that he governed completely far left but I think that because there's some seeds of reasonableness there in regard to energy and oil that perhaps there can be something done there the idea that we're going to buy oil and encourage more Drilling in Venezuela but not more Drilling in the United States for the sake of some climate concern makes no sense I mean if you're Drilling in Venezuela you can drill in the United States it has the same effect and not to mention the price would be cheaper and jobs would be better in the United States I think there are enough Democrats that agree with my basic comments on that particular subject I think on immigration there could be some deal made as long as the Democrats are willing to fund and complete the border wall which is not a radical idea it was an idea that many of them agreed to 15 years ago and they haven't done it yet if they want to deal in Immigration if we want a 5x legal immigration which is really something that a lot of businesses and really just great Americans that want some of their family members to come over I'm talking about legal immigration legal immigration is a big of a mess as illegal immigration is today but not funding a secure border is an impediment to not getting anything done on that issue can I pitch you on my platform for my future presidential run on immigration here it is America is open for immigration here are the conditions in which you can immigrate very quickly you must come through a border control checkpoint we are going to get all of your bio analysts we're going to take a retinal scan we're going to take a DNA sample we're going to take your fingerprints take a picture and everything else we're going to issue you a social security card on the spot and then come on in and get a job and do whatever you want to do if you break the law we have the ability to look at their DNA see who they are blah blah blah and if you're a criminal we're going to export you and you'll never be allowed back in because we'll have the DNA and the radical scan at these control points why is it so hard to fix immigration it just seems so easy to me it should be easy but by the way I'm not running for president and by the way when Donald Trump was President by the time he got done we did not have a illegal immigration problem in the United States we were energy independent so looking what Joe Biden did on day one I know we're getting down into the big partisan chat or another so okay let me just say on day one because this is the truth on day one by the way off the top of my head he had actually like six or nine executive orders on day one on immigration one of them was that we would stop building the wall that's number one he doesn't want a wall he stopped it on day one the second thing he did was that he told municipalities Across America that when you do the census you have to count illegal immigrants in your city as part of the mandated count why so that you would get more Federal money from the federal government so that you made sure you added those people in your account and you were eligible for more federal dollars third to your point now to your to my campaign on the third executive order signed by Joe Biden on day one he repealed the law that said that if you were in the country illegally and you committed a felony you would be deported he repealed that law so today in America if you're here illegally and you commit a felony you are no longer subject to deportation I just don't understand it's day one and he was supposed to be the reasonable guy the problem with our politics is that when you're looking at me and you're asking me not necessarily in an argumentative way but you're basically saying rights why can't you guys work with these people well it's very difficult to work with someone that on day one sign those three executive orders let me put it this way and I'm sorry if I'm going down a rabble but no this is your point about where we are in Congress so everyone if you're not driving close your eyes and imagine you're in San Diego to be a beautiful place to be driving on the coast yeah right yeah Washington DC we're in San Diego and one Congressman North of San Diego is in a district that's 80 percent Republican the neighboring congressman is in another District or next door neighbors and that Congressman represents a district that's 80 percent Democrat they're in the same media Market they've got the same newspaper covering the same district one person's talking about a double-wide fence on the border that's 80 feet high and the other one's talking about what about the kids that are here through no fault of their own should we let them in and both of their constituents love them both equally they've got a better chance like I said before of getting reelected and waking up tomorrow and so the problem we've got is that you're asking why can't we just work together and get this done we've got one party that on day one is saying you will not get deported if you commit a felony you tell me how I can work with that if that's a non-starter how can I work with that if securing the border is a non-starter how can I work with that maybe the way you work with it as a party not you but as a part of you work with is you just go back to the American people who have the ultimate control over everything with the power of voting and say this is what we've got now this is the case that we're laying out for electing our party to be back in power and don't even work with them work with the American people if I'm the guy in the 80 Republican district and I say let's just cut this deal on immigration we're not going to build a border wall we're not going to fix the things that you care about but we are going to let everyone that's here to legally vote and we're going to give them amnesty I'm out of a job so the question is is my job to do what I want to do or is my job to represent the district that re-elects me 80 percent of the time it's complicated but I do think that where the rubber meets the road is when Joe Biden needs to go back to the American people generally and defend the things that he's done on immigration and I don't think he's going to do well question just popped in my head can you help me understand why if immigration is such a big deal in illegal immigration I would assume that the biggest impact that it's having is on the border states why are Democrats getting elected in border states if illegal immigration such a problem in those States my assumption is that there's been great demographic changes in places like Arizona Nevada and you're even seeing a little bit of in Utah and I think a lot of folks are moving out of California and I think a lot of those states are becoming slightly Bluer year and year out no question about it I think that that's true but I also think that when the issue pops up and it's hot and heavy in presidential years like 2016 those States came around for Donald Trump like I said before when Joe Biden ran he didn't run on amnesty and an insecure border he ran on the opposite message but now he's got a record and he's going to have to come back in 2024 and defend it so I think we have to leave it there so thank you so much for coming on and giving us your take I really appreciate it right hey I had a lot of fun doing it this is great I appreciate it and I'm happy to come back again and we'll do a little update well thanks that would actually be great we do like to tell our clients that it's always interesting to look at the information but never let any one thing drive your decision-making process as it relates to your investment strategy and your wealth plan but it's always really interesting to hear somebody's take on something as interesting as politics and is nationally followed as politics is and this has been fascinating I appreciate you answering my questions from a person who's just Joe Schmo on the street appreciate it the previous presentation by Monument Wealth Management LLC Monument was intended for general information purposes only no portion of the presentation serves as the receipt of or as a substitute for personalized investment advice for Monument or any other investment professional of your choosing different types of Investments involve varying degrees of risk and it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy or any non-investment related or planning Services discussion or content will be profitable be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation or prove successful Monument is neither a law firm nor accounting firm and no portion of its services should be construed as legal or accounting advice no portion of this content should be construed by a client or Prospect a client as a guarantee that he she will 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