College Football Thursday Picks + Best Bets

all right what is up guys we're officially live here on Twitter on uh on uh on YouTube as well sorry I'm blasting the link out to everybody so we can get people funneled in here but what I'm glad to be back on here guys yesterday we Tech yesterday I had to deal with some [ __ ] with my car today we got to deal with with bro bro's internet being down right now so we're going through it right now maybe you can join us later maybe not but The Show Must Go On we must give the people what they want guys if you're watching this on Twitter if you're watching us on uh on YouTube anywhere you're watching us right now guys please spam that like button for me one time for the one time guys we're trying to get everybody in here how we doing today groovy caps glad to have you back in here my brother this going to be me interacting with y'all the chat guys we're going to get some free plays in here we're going to talk about some the biggest games of the upcoming weekend and what we're liking in those games and ultimately we're going to get yall up out of here man so we got a long long show prepared for y'all today unfortunately bro bro couldn't make it today man I haven't gone Solo in a fat minute so worried about to get this thing going um okay you're going hard on the under oh yeah we're about to talk about that pick here in a second guys you already know that um but yeah guys we're excited for today so far baseball is not looking like it's uh going to be too kind of me today it's going to come down to what happens in this D back game ultimately for how we do today um man I Tred to tell you bro do not bet on the white socks come on guys do not bet on the White Soxs like oh I cannot express it enough I think they're what now they're 31 and 103 I think or4 like the white socks might actually go down as the worst team in MLB history um bro bro bro's Wi-Fi is like [ __ ] up right now so that's the only reason why he's not on here with me right now but all right guys we blast this out I'm blasting this out right now I'm then want to get into it um drop in the chat guys any games y'all want to hear me talk about anything y looking at on today's slate let me know because we're about to talk about every single one of them on here under in the Jacksonville State game yeah so look guys I think there's going to be rain in this game ultimately yeah we'll go we we'll talk about this one first here so it looks like there's going to be a strong rain in this game today Jacksonville State runs the ball a ton I believe they ran the ball 54 time or uh 49 times per game last season so Jacksonville State's probably going to try to run down the throats today of Coastal Carolina Coastal Carolina has lost a lot of players I appreciate you Cameron Coastal Carolina guys lost a lot of players right now to the transfer Port they lost 29 players that was all the players they had when they had Jamie Chadwell in there Jamie Chadwell is at Liberty now that's why Liberty so damn good they're missing a lot of production right now and I don't think that's going to be good for them today um ultimately guys I think they're going to run down their throats here in this game and I think they're going to keep their foot also too like Coastal Carolina's best part of their defense is their secondary their front seven is pretty bad so I think they're going to get pushed around Jacksonville state has a really good offensive line for G5 team and they Rich Rodriguez better Coach they built a great program I'm not really buying what's going on over there right now with Tim Beck I don't like what he's doing so I'm G take him there in this game today oh yeah we'll talk about Mt Brown versus Minnesota here next um hell yeah Marlin's got to keep putting on for me you all know it's going to be a sweaty couple like next hour and a half when you're relying on the Marlins to give you an even day to in baseball that's when you know uh but anyway guys let's get into this Minnesota North Carolina game look I don't have play in this game but I've done a lot of research for y'all sorry I'm scroll into the game right now so it looks like the numbers down to one and a half here so Minnesota's starting running back and their best wide receiver are both currently listed as questionable I mean y'all know how it goes in college apparently we'll know two hours before kick apparently they push the start of the game back till 900 p.m. because of bad weather the game was supposed to start at 8 now it's going to start at 9: due to weather um I mean look guys North Carolina we don't know who's going to start apparently they're going to use both quarterbacks Max Johnson does have more experience I think he's the better quarterback of the duo here so I'd like to see him get more reps here but North Carolina's gonna be all about giving the ball to am Mar on Hampton they're gon to try to run the ball here I don't like Minnesota's offensive line in this game to be honest y yeah Min both teams are run heavy teams um I could only look at North Carolina in this game this is more of like an uncertainty game for me PJ Fleck hasn't played well in the first game of season I think North Carolina hasn't won like a true Road game in like a couple like they I don't think they won a true Road game last year so my opinion it's a pretty bad spot both ways I'll still lean towards North Carolina though to get it done in this game I do think they're going to be able to run the football in Minnesota I don't know y'all know me man I'm more of a of a South football guy than a big 10 football guy so ultimately I think North Carolina is going to be able to run the ball down Minnesota's throats in this game I don't think Minnesota's any good we'll see though we don't really know much about these teams I feel there's a lot of uncertainty PJ Fleck is definitely a better Coach than m brown in my opinion so we'll see what ends up happening there with that game guys I don't have a play in that one I'm about to talk about this North Dakota game here in a second um for those of you all joining our free play right now is Jacksonville State minus three we're going to add another free play here in a few minutes but look guys every single if you all want every single one of my plays every single day all you have to do is go click the link in my bio for soad if you're watching on YouTube put in the comments the word team and I will put you on my team guys we're going to have Max plays coming up on Saturday I'm GNA have three of them in my VIP we're GNA have a lot of plays over there on soag guys we got four plays up over there right now so keep that in mind if you're looking for bets and whatnot I got you I can get you a $1 signup code if you've never been on the team before so let me know for sure I'd love to put you on there but anyway guys let's get into these man I babbled on enough I was so bet so bet so bet so bet all right anyway let's talk about this next game here we got we got uh Deion Sanders and the boys hosting North Dakota State this line was at 9 and a half this morning it's up to 10 and a half now and let's take a look at something here let's see what the public and splits look like it feels like in this game today guys that North Dakota state is going to be the sharp side here to be honest with y'all this is not really a game I'm interested in playing here so this what it's going to come down to North Dakota State's going to run the football they're one of the best teams in the entire um in the entire FCS I believe they're ranked number one or two right now in the nation so it looks like about an even split right now on the split which is pretty interesting because this morning when I checked it was more in favor of Colorado this game's got a 600 almost 700k handle in this game look this is what it's going to come down to you guys if the Colorado is able to throw the ball and get up early in this game North Dakota state with the way they want to run the football is not going to be able to hang around in this game guys then you look on the flip side of things Colorado is gonna have to spread them out here North Dakota State's goingon to try to slow this game down and make Colorado grind with them in the trenches which is not what Colorado wants to do it's going to be two opposite teams trying to impose what they want to do here honestly I'm a little worried about these FCS teams considering the fact that um the team who played um who was it who played uh I can't think of the name of them they played um New Mexico they're ranked fifth right now the monarchs they're ranked fifth right now and in the FCS and they barely beat New Mexico so I know nor I know San or uh [ __ ] I know North Dakota state is way better than them but I mean are they really going to be able to move the ball down the field in this game they're going to have to run run run in this game I I think the play in this game is to take is to take North Dakota State plus 10 and a half points but I mean if Colorado gets up early you might as well you might have to live bet out of that one with Colorado and L it I'm not touching that game though shadera is gonna throw three imts I don't think he is I think Sanders is pretty damn good quarterback um anyway guys let's run through some of these other games on the board here so let's take a look here I'm give you I'll give youall a free play here in a second so we got Howard versus Ruckers I mean that's not really what I'm interested in at all Howard's a pretty bad football team you got uh you got a Central Connecticut versus Central Michigan Central Connecticut is ass they won one game last year I think they'll probably get manhandled in this game there's a reason why they're catching 32 points to a Mac team North Carolina a&t's also asked I believe they won like three games last year they're playing Wake Forest in this game the spreads come down a good bit but there can't might be rain in the area in that game so I would keep that in mind if you touch that game W Force got a lot of uncertainty their quarterback Mitch Griffith's transferred out can't remember where he went but he went to like a cusa or an FCS school no not to a FCS to or to a sun Bel school one of those two don't think he's that great of a player so that game's kind of interesting um let's see here here we go NC State versus Western Carolina guys so I did talked to a couple people and what they're telling me is that NC State's going to go real vanilla in this game they're not trying to run the score up at all in this game they just want to get in and get out show nothing because guys they have Tennessee on Deck they're prepared for that game we've seen the spread come down it was 33 and a half yesterday now it's 31 and a half look I personally don't bet on the FCS teams but I could maybe see a cover here for Western Carolina Western Carolina I read some reading in this game they actually have two of the better quarterbacks in the entire conference and they have one of the better offenses the over could be in the play in this game at 61 and a half I'm just worried about NC State going real vanilla with their offense here I ultimately won't be touching this game but I couldn't talk anybody out of taking Western Carolina plus the points here in this game tonight um I don't have to I mean guys seeing Tulsa laying 37 points in a game is honestly kind of crazy I mean team they're playing though is horrible I believe they won one game last year so I mean Northwestern State Demons is who they're playing I'm pretty sure that's a team that won one game last year um hey appreciate that yeah man all the spreads moved with us today in the VIP like I said guys North Carolina Minnesota I lean towards the Tar Heels in this game I'm not going to play it though I've got a lot of question marks on both teams to be honest with you'all North Carolina's a team that that enters the season with a ton of question marks you feel like Matt Brown wouldn't be coaching there at this point if he wasn't trying to build something and they have had some good recruiting classes coming in the past but at the same time guys if you look at Minnesota I mean Minnesota has so many question marks it's insane like I respect PJ Fleck he hasn't done well at the beginning of season so we'll see what happens there the call it did get moved back the start time of that game um like I said North Dakota State in Colorado I Le the the Bison with the points here nothing for me in that game Southern Utah versus Utah I actually think the Utes might come out here and take him to poundtown in this game Utah's pretty loaded up cam Rising didn't get to play football at all last year I think they might toss it around the yard a little bit and run down their throats here they do have Baylor on Deck but I think Baylor is going to be probably the worst team in the entire Big 12 this season be between them and BYU I mean I think Utah maybe in the first half let's see what the numbers at in the first half is an interesting look 24 and a half in the first half I did actually look into this play a decent bit with Utah I don't hate taking him in the first half minus 21 and a half or maybe even looking at their team total if you can get a line on their first half team total I think Utah might come out here and try to get Cam Rising comfortable since he hasn't played ball in such a long time I mean the guy's basically been out for an entire year um Eastern Illinois versus Illinois I don't I don't know much about Illinois I don't think they're going to be that good but Eastern Illinois is really really bad that could be another smack them but they also do have Kansas on Deck that's 900 PM start um Jackson State versus U Monroe I would be cautious here guys U Monroe is a bad football team the Sunbelt might come in here and hit him um hey let's hope muray State can score some points today boys um and then other than that that's it really for tonight's games let's get another free play here though in tonight's games guys like I said I got four plays in tonight's games on my soet we're g to go to Arkansas Pine buff versus Arkansas I gave this one out in VIP this morning at 50 now we're looking at uh or sorry at 57 now we're looking at 58 and a half I would still take it at that number so here's the first thing yall need to know when teams play as 42. favorites or more and they're not playing against a conference opponent since 2018 these teams against the spread guys are crushing it these teams are no sorry not against the spread these teams to the over the total are crushing it they're 6329 and one to going over the total that's good for 65% since 2018 so first of all we have that in play here on the over the next thing that we have oh guys by the way Trent took Colorado so North Dakota State's definitely going to cover but guys the next thing you got to look at here between Arkansas and Arkansas Pine buff in this game is Arkansas brings in Bobby patrino yes they have Oklahoma State on Deck but they got ton Green in here and basically on a brand new offense they're going to run the offense out there score some points quick and early in this game I think in the first half Arkansas gets out to a big lead then we see in the second half the backups come in and this what's going to happen when the backups come in Pine buff is playing to not get shut out in this game they're going to go as hard as they can to possibly score some points here I think they're easily going to be able to get a touchdown maybe two touchdowns on the board it's not like Arkansas is that great of an SEC team they win total is four and a half for crying out loud I think they can get two one to two touchdowns on the board that might be all we need is we're gonna get 50 points in this game from Arkansas easily my final score prediction is 52 to7 anything under over anything under 59 i' take the over in this game I don't see how we don't end up going over the total in this game um but yeah guys that's what I'm looking at for tonight I'll go ahead and look talk a little bit about tomorrow's games as well um let me know in the comments guys any games y'all want to hear me talk about yes sir let's go guys we got football back baby um tomorrow's games aren't that great honestly I'm probably gonna end up laying the lumber here with Oklahoma against Temple um let's get a little Trend out here for here's some trends for everybody guys I sent these to VIP earlier um I like to just kind of let everybody know stuff so see college football week one in the fir if this is your first game of the season you're a big favorite so home favorites definitely do better than away favorites but here's the kicker on this home favorites versus FBS teams not versus FCS teams versus FBS teams if you're minus 10 or higher since 2018 excluding covid you're 6144 and one against the spread that's 58% as 17 points favorites are higher you're 46 36 and one that's 56% against the spread as 24 Point favorites or higher your 262 and one that's 56.5% not that great on any of those yet but here's the one as minus 30 point favorites are higher you're 20110 and one against the number that's good for 66.7% that criteria right there meets Oklahoma I'm telling you guys Temple is horrible they have a whole new offensive line that have never played a game before in the FBS some of these guys started in the FCS their quarterback was actually good last year EJ Warner CT Warner's son he's gone he transfer I can't can't remember where he transferred to but he transferred to another school also here's another kicker why you want to go against temple temple is not only is Temple bad their defense is horrible the secondary is horrible but last season Oklahoma scored 73 points against Arkansas state in the first game of the season they're clearly going to try to exercise some demons here run it up Jackson Arnold was horrible in that bowl game he threw five interceptions you want to get Jackson Arnold comfortable I mean they should be able to House Houston next week but still though you don't want draxon Arnold getting ready for that next game not looking good they want to come out of here have a good game I mean venables if if they have a bad season this year venables could get fired like it's not out of the realm Danny stutsman stud linebacker he's back everything's in place here for Oklahoma I'm definitely gonna have Oklahoma minus 42 and a half on my card tomorrow go ahead and Mark me down for that um other than that for tomorrow I will have a play probably I may or may not have a play in this Western Michigan game versus uh Wisconsin we do I definitely like that game FAU vers Michigan State's interesting to be honest with y'all at 4 I don't like it as much at 13 and a half or I mean at 11 on the open routes consider playing it think about this this is Jonathan Smith he's the head coach he came over from uh Oregon State last year he's got Aiden Charles in there a ton of transfers in here this gonna be their first game with him being with him being the head coach I think he wants to come in here and make a statement for Michigan City who's been horrible the last couple years FAU while I like their head coach a lot at the end of the day when I Tom Herman when I look at this FAU team I don't like their their quarterback who transfer in here from Marshall cam fan at all I think he's horrible I think they might be a little in over their heads I believe Michigan State let me look at their schedule they might have a look ahead spot here let's see here Michigan state currently has of course it's not loading right now it's taking forever um Michigan state is Maryland on Deck so they might pack it in later on the game I would probably attack them early or just lay it with them I mean 14's not that much F FS on the Ruckers game okay Ruckers plays tonight let me go back to that to be honest with you I don't know what Haun about Ruckers but I don't think Howard's any good like I really don't think Howard's any good at all Ruckers should be able to come in here and do whatever they want to against them Andrew I think Ruckers probably wins this game running away Ruckers is a stout defense and they like to run the football I think they could definitely run the football down their throats in this game so I would look towards Ruckers but it's not a game I'm really interested in playing um let's see here Elon versus Duke Duke's got a lot of question marks for me man I took Duke's win total under five and a half I'm not very high on Duke this season I'd not touch that game with a 10- foot pole I'm definitely going to be watching it though like guys even though tomorrow I'm probably only going to have one or two plays I'm going to watch every single one of these games like I'm telling youall the biggest thing in college football watch as many games as you can like sure there's sharp action stuff on games I don't buy into any of that [ __ ] I buy into the ey test more than anything in college football you truly know football and you watch these teams play you can tell how big the Gap is between these teams think about it these teams really only play 11 or 12 games together Vegas can be far off on them all the time like I always tell people if you look at at the end of the season the most profitable teams against the spread two to three of them are always going to be some of the best teams in college football like look at TCU when they made their run they were one of the most profitable teams against the spread let's look at last year's most profitable teams against the spread let's see 2023 CFB teams eight against the spread and trust me guys we're gonna be live on here again tomorrow and I think we're GNA try to go live again on uh on Saturday we're definitely going to be live tomorrow I want to go live again though on Saturday regardless I miss doing the Saturday morning stream so make sure y'all tap that follow button if you're on X if you're on uh YouTube whatever you're on guys and please hit that like button for me too whatever you're on it just helps bump us up the algorithm okay so last season um wait that's not against the spread that's win loss I was about to say there's no way Michigan went 15 and0 ATS last year okay so last season um against the spread um the number one team against the spread last season was Arizona and Arizona was pretty damn good they went 11- two then after that you got Miami of Ohio Oregon went 103 and one Notre Dame went 93 and one UNLV 10 and4 Missouri nine and4 see it's always those teams that end up being good that come out of nowhere that are the best ATS teams in college football and that's probably the same way it'll end up being this year if you think you have the inside scoop on a team that's going to be competitive that's not really getting price correctly you can make a lot of money backing them guys or if you know a team that has low-key HomeField Advantage um but yeah I will say the TCU Stanford game on night game I do lean the over and I actually kind of lean towards TCU Stanford is a feisty offense though honestly so I could maybe I might get involved in this game we'll see I'm gonna have to love a play though to hop in on this game like starts at 10:30 man I'm gonna have to be up early on Saturday like Saturday morning I'm probably gonna be up by seven o'clock like I can't sleep past 7 o'clock I slept till 8 last Saturday it almost ruined my entire day I almost didn't even get ready in time um Penn State West Virginia is going to be interesting I don't know why the why the spread's dropping so much like I make this spread 14 and a half I've crunched some numbers again and I got to 12 and a half but that was with me trying to like upgrade West Virginia as much as I possibly could I can't drop below 12 and a half so I need to figure out like a pen state is suspensions or something here like I got my ear to the the streets if anybody knows anything about pimp State inside information please put it in the chat right now um but yeah I'm looking at that one I will say guys produce playing Indiana State I don't prod is going to be that good but Indian States ass they won one or two games last year it's a FCS team right there um let's see here we got um like most of these early games kind of suck Georgia and Clemson's going to be interesting honestly I know a lot of shark people are gonna be on Clemson I'm probably GNA be on ug in that game um also kind of lean the over in that game I think Georgia's going to throw a lot with their injuries and suspensions to running back um Virginia Tech versus Vanderbilt um it might it's might be pouring down rain in Nashville so keep that in mind for Tennessee and Chattanooga we already seen the line go from 412 to 382 and tennessy and UT Chad nooga um Virginia Tech and Vandy we've also seen we've seen the line the total drop from 55 and a half to 48 and a half I'm actually looking at the over guys V's gonna be feisty this season V's running like a pistol triple option like Willie Fritz the Houston head coach now runs so they're going to be running some tricky offense here Virginia Tech supposed to be good but is it because Virginia Tech actually good or because they play a joke schedule I think it's because they play a joke schedule that's just me personally I think Kiron Jones is solid I think they have a good team good HomeField Advantage this game's on the road vy's getting disrespected at home like I don't even know if Kentucky would be laying 17 at vanderville and Kentucky might be just as good as Virginia Tech I think Virginia Tech's going a l already here's the Trap line of the day I don't know if y'all saw my Tik Tok South Dakota State an FCS National Champion is only minus 9 and a half against Oklahoma State Oklahoma State's the most bet team right now in Vegas look I think Oklahoma State should cover nine and a half but at the same time like I'm not even kidding you guys Oklahoma State's quarterback um Allan Bowman was on record saying that in his eyes the biggest game of the entire season is against Arkansas it's all about recruiting pipelines they're Rivals because the states are close to each other both these teams want to win this game badly I'm just saying guys I think that this game Oklahoma State could be looking ahead a little bit South Dakota State could come out here and give them their all if you look at Oklahoma State the last couple years they've had an embarrassing out-of-conference loss every single season and what happens Gundy leads them to a winning record in conference and they almost win the conference Gundy knows how to coach in the Big 12 there's a reason why he hangs on to his job every single time there I'm not saying that Oklahoma State's gonna lose in this game I'm just saying taking Oklahoma State minus nine and a half isn't as easy as you might think it is versus an FCS team I'm personally not touching this game I don't like the look ahead spot I also think the numberers too low if I was getting two touchdowns I would be all in on the jack rabbits here but numers too low for me um let's see here other games of course the Marlins are trying to blow this of course the Marlins trying to blow another six-run lead we'll see what happens though um Syracuse vers Ohio is interesting Ohio is G probably gonna be pretty bad this upcoming season Syracuse is a complete new coaching staff they got Kyle McCord they got a ton of transfers in I'm G be interested to see how Syracuse actually looks in this game um let's see here Eastern Tennessee versus App State app State's got a big game coming up Florida Miami guys that's going to be another interesting one as well it's probably going to be 100 degrees and now on the swamp I know a lot of people are saying take the under I'm looking at the over in this game man Texas and Colorado State Texas got Michigan on Deck they might not take Colorado State too seriously here in this game Colorado State's got a lot of talent guys and then Boise State versus Georgia Southern it gets hot and Boise I think everyone's overruling that but Georgia Southern hasn't been this big of an underdog but four times ever and they won all those games outright that's just something something to keep in mind there I don't think Boise State's as easy as you think it is um I'm staying as far away from that game as possible look guys like I said at the top of the show my free plays for y'all today we're taking the over in Arkansas in Arkansas Pine buff at 57 it's at 58 and a half I still like it just don't take 59 anything under 59 is good to go in my opinion um and then also too we're taking Jacksonville State minus three I lean North Dakota State and I lean North Carolina not playing of those games there too many uncertainties for me in those games I feel like you got to pay a tax on Colorado and I just don't think they're that good I took their win total under nine and a half so or under five and a half but all right guys that's all we got for today's show if you haven't already click the follow button click the like button for me please we'll be back on here live tomorrow bro bro couldn't make it today he was having technical difficulties but we'll be back live once again tomorrow and also too guys if y'all want to get all my plays every single day comment the word team on if you're watching me on X if you're watching me on YouTube put it in the comments I'll come in there I'll personally message you and I'll send you a code for a $1 sign up I don't know if I can or not on YouTube but if you do I'll redirect you to one of my socials I'm tp3 bets on Tik Tok Twitter and Instagram we'll figure it out on there but just put the word team in there hit the follow button hit the like button be back on here tomorrow guys hey let's go Jacksonville State let's go Gamecocks and let's go art points in the AR