Penn State-WVU Prediction: Mountaineers Pull Upset In Morgantown? | GSMC College Football Podcast

alrighty welcome back everyone we just broke down the Miami versus Florida game I am picking Florida I do not feel great about it I'll be totally honest with you but I think if I picked Miami I wouldn't feel any better about it so I'm going to roll forward with that and then we'll reconvene on Monday and you guys are more than welcome to come back and dunk on me but let's get into this Penn State at West Virginia game cuz this one is also very very hard to get a beat on and we'll start this one the same exact way we started the Miami one players to watch and there are so many in this game but I think it starts with Harrison Wallace when you talk about this uh Penn State offense there's no doubt about it this is the guy this is the guy that has to make a number of plays for them this year on the outside at wide receiver or they're going to be the same team they were at wide receiver a year ago it's going to be very stagnant they're not going to have a lot of options out there and it's going to be an offense that leaves a lot on the table but Harrison Wallace can open things up and if you can do it on Saturday I feel really confident about his ability throughout pretty much the entirety of Penn State schedule so this is the guy if he can make big plays on Saturday and show that he's ready to take that wide receiver one spot then you got to feel really good if you're a Penn State fan and then Kobe McLoud is someone I think is super important he's taking over for Abdul Carter kind of in the middle of that defense likely will be the Green Dot guy for this defense and it's going to be super important obviously the communication is a huge part of it but at the end of the day this going to be a West Virginia team that's going to run the ball and run the ball and run the ball and the one uh run fits for the linebacker is going to be hugely important you know you're not going to necessarily get Elite push against this offensive line I think at least because of how good this offens and Veteran this offensive line is for West Virginia but if your linebackers can be sure tacklers you'll feel really good about what you can do against this running attack moving over to West Virginia Jaden Bray is someone I want to watch because he's coming over from Oklahoma State uh in the portal and a very very talented player this is one of those guys that I think just put in a little bit of a different offensive system can absolutely open things up and I think with Garrick green you know they're going to be able to run the ball they're going to be able to pull everyone in then maybe you get Jaden Bray for one big time Play Over the Top and that totally changes this game so definitely got to watch to just maybe make that one big time play towards the end and maybe win it for West Virginia and then Wyatt milum I wanted to go on the defensive side of the ball but I had to include this guy because he's going to get a ton of Abdul Carter on Saturday and that's the most terrifying guy on the field that is the best football player on the field by a pretty comfortable margin on Saturday I can promise you that and he's going to have to play A+ football Wyatt milm has to make sure that he is fully ready for what Abdul Carter has to bring him because you're not going to win every time I'm not expecting him to absolutely dominate Abdul Carter I don't think anyone would but at the end of the day if he can hold serve if he can keep him just at Bay for a little bit and then let Garr Green in this offense do its thing I think that's more than enough so a huge huge thing for him and definitely will be really fun to watch but heading into this one Penn State is favored by eight by eight points right now the over under 51 and a half so a little bit kind of in between game probably a little bit more run heavy game and that's going to be one of the things we'll get into throughout this but the big storylines Penn State's coaching changes likely top the list when you talk about Tom Allen coming in as the new DC taking over for Manny Diaz and then Andy cotal Nikki the new OC taking over for um I'm blanking on his name right now I apologize but the former uh play caller for the Penn State nit lines he's coming over from Kansas that was a very different offense than what they ran a year ago which is kind of going to be an interesting uh discussion during this game you know how quickly can Drew Aller come along in this new offense and feel comfortable especially with that uh uh crowd noise from Morgantown at his back so it'll be interesting to watch that and then is this West Virginia's big moment they're coming off a year where they went nine and4 where Neil Brown got himself from off the hot seat to one of the safest coaches in that conference honestly and he's in a place where maybe Saturday is the point where they launch themselves back into National relevance maybe that this is the point where they get that big time win and they're the main story on on Monday not Clemson not Georgia not Penn State not well obviously uh not Penn State but uh using this moment could be absolutely huge and there's a chance West Virginia just has a little bit of Magic on Saturday and then we got to talk about how this rivalry just needs to be here way more often uh they've played every or they played every single year up until 1992 and then went off for about 31 years they came back last year and after this match up doesn't sound like there's any other scheduled so could this be the last time we see these two face off there's a lot of people that are kind of lessening their out of conference schedule to give them a little bit more wiggle room in the playoff era so maybe this is one that goes by the wayside I very much hope it's not cuz got to love the Backyard Brawl but at the end of the day it's going to be really interesting to watch this one unfold moving on uh how can Penn State win this game and it's pretty simple if I'm being totally honest when you talk about from a game plan perspective win on early Downs that is the number one goal for this team you have an elite running back duo with KRON Allen and Nick Singleton you have a quarterback in Drew Aller that you don't really know what you have quite yet you know you feel really confident in him he's taken Big Time strides throughout this off season but you're not really sure what he's going to do when he walks into Morgantown for that week one matchup keeping him in manageable third Downs keeping him in passing Downs that aren't third and eight they're third and four or third and five is huge for this game so absolutely it's something that where you have a o line that could be a little bit questionable I think they're going to be more than fine throughout time but replacing Olu fashanu in that very first game maybe Drew Shelton struggles just a little bit out there on Saturday but overall I think you look at this team they're going to be able to run the ball that is the ultimate goal of this team and if they can stay in front of the sticks and win on early downs and then give Drew Aller some moments to pick their shots that we'll get to here in a second um it's obviously going to be very beneficial for this team and then let's get to the pick your shots because this is something that was glaringly obvious to everyone that was watching Penn State a year ago they did not take any shots they did not go down the field much at all and if the one thing that was uh talked about with Drew Aller when he was coming into that starting job and when he was really coming out of high school into college it was that arm Talent it was the the arm strength it was everything that he can do with the football and they did not utilize that nearly enough a year ago and I think there some of that is obviously the wide receiver Talent some of that is what he can do some of that is the scheme but they got to make sure they pick their moments it can't be another year where it's a lot of dinking and dunking and then maybe you take one shot at an inopportune time pick your moments but absolutely stretch the ball down the field and then find that receiver that can do that because that might be another worry of theirs but at the end of the day you got to be able to stretch the field if you want to be effective against the Ohio States and the michigans where that run game is going to be your bread and butter no doubt about it but you can't really run the ball if you can't stretch those uh safeties and linebackers just a little bit further back to open up some running lanes and then the final one Elite run uh linebacker play is just absolutely necessary in this game we talked about Kobe McLoud and Tony Roos is going to be another huge player for this game but CJ Donaldson and Jem white are going to run the ball a ton in this game for West W Virginia there's no doubt about that and then Garrett Green's going to get plenty of rushes himself I I can promise you that as well and then I think it's going to be one of those things as long as they are sure tacklers at that second level as long as they can get those guys on the ground for a three- yard gain instead of an 8 yard gain or seven yard gain they're going to be in really good shape so it's really just comes down to these guys being Elite tacklers they've been that way in the past and I expect them to be that way on Saturday but CJ Donaldson is a load to take down so it might just be a little bit tougher and we'll see if they can get that on Saturday and if they can then I'd be a little bit surprised if West Virginia can get into the groove on offense that they want to moving on to West Virginia let's talk about that quarterback run just a little bit because Garrett green is one of the special guys in the country 704 rushing yards a year ago and you have Abdu Carter you have Danny Dennis Sutton on the other side for uh Penn State and you do have Wyatt milum you do have Nick Malone I think those are both really good tackles for West Virginia but they're going to get home a couple of times Abdu Carter is absolutely going to get a win at least a couple of times in this game and you're going to have to find a way to keep him at Bay I think the quarterback run game is the way to do that obviously whenever you do that mesh concept where it's a read option the defensive end is going to crash or he's going to stay out with that uh quarterback having that ability to know that that quarterback can take the ball and can take it around the edge for 30 40 yards because he's that talented is an X Factor it keeps Abdu Carter honest it keeps all of these Edge rushers honest and make sure that this pass rush or this rush in general just does not get home as quickly so I think that quarterback run game is going to be huge in this game you know Garrett green could make that one play where he squeezes out of the pocket and scrambles for 12 yards for a first down or he uh runs that read option perfectly and Abdul Carter crashes down on the running back he pulls the ball for 12 yards and a first down so I think that's kind of the opening here uh that Pence State obviously does not have with Drew Aller you can open up a number of different doors running the ball with the quarterback run game that might just confuse this uh Penn State Defense just a little bit and then also on the defensive side Force Aller to beat you frankly it's one of those things that maybe Drew Aller has fully changed all of his uh worries from a year ago maybe he is fully ready to totally dominate this upcoming year but I'd rather figure that out than figure out that KRON Allen and Nick Singleton are going to tear me to Pieces cuz that is what's going going to happen there's no doubt about that there is a doubt that if you put the ball in jer's hands he's capable of making the plays put the ball in his hands try toh stop this run as much as you possibly can and bet that these wide receivers in this quarterback are not going to be where they need to be to beat you I think that's the best way to go about business obviously you got to play really sticky coverage on the outside you got to play really really good man coverage but at the end of the day this is going to be the way that they're likely going to be able to win is stop that run and then say if Drew Aller is going to beat us so be it um and then finally get the crowd into it early there's no two ways about that when you're at West West Virginia when you're in Morgantown you can feel it and it's going to be one of the big time advantages in their Direction one of the few advantages in their direction if I'm being honest and I think they got to utilize it from the jump frankly if I was them I would take the ball first if I won that uh coin toss and I would go down and try to score immediately cuz then you got uh a lead on the board you got the crowd into it and then Penn State's got to walk onto the field to a rowdy rowdy bunch in Morgantown so I think that's the ultimate goal you know it's not going to be the prettiest uh game from West Virginia and probably it shouldn't be if they're going to win this one they want it to be uh low-scoring they want it to be running the ball they wanted to be controlling the clock and then forced Jala to make a couple of plays down the stretch in front of this just ridiculous crowd on Saturday so it's a pretty uh relatively simple path forward for West Virginia know you have a couple of things at your back that are going to really help you but at the end of the day when I look at this game I'm going to pick the most talented guy on the field Abdul Carter is going to make a couple of plays in this game that just totally change it and it could be that we're walking into the fourth quarter as a four-point game you know West Virginia 17 Penn State 21 and then Abdul Carter gets a strip sack and someone takes it back for a touchdown so I don't necessarily think it's going to be the prettiest game offensively from Penn State I think Drew Aller is still going to have some things to work through but I don't think it's going to be all that pretty on the other side either so I think we're looking at a little bit of a fight here I do love the under with these heavy run offenses but at the end of the day I think this is going to be one of those where you're going to have a battle back and forth for three quarters and then Penn State's going to have that one big play from that one huge player that's going to totally change this game and likely Barry West Virginia for this one so I am going to pick Penn State I think that's one of those games that everyone's circling saying well a top 10 team in Florida State went down uh last week it's got to be someone else this week and it very well could be we'll get into the Notre Dame game tomorrow but at the end of the day I am not going to pick uh Penn State to lose that game but I'm going to pick it to be very very close towards the end of that one but let's take our uh second break here and when we come back we're going to talk about all of the top 10 teams there are a couple that are playing what we call cupcakes in the uh first week of the season and I want to break down just what do we have to see from these teams obviously we're not going to see too much cuz likely you'd like to get your starters out pretty quickly in these games but at the end of the day what do we have to see early on to just feel confident going into week two where a couple of these teams have just massive matchups so we'll break it down right after this so stick with us