Cedric Mullins homers twice in Orioles win over the Red Sox!

the Orioles offense has been really struggling lately so I couldn't think of a better time for Cedric Mullin to come up with his first multihomer gain in over three years but that's what he did as the O's beat the Red Sox to pull back within a half game of the division lead I'll recap the win at Fenway Park coming up on this episode of the locked on Orioles podcast you are locked on Orioles your daily Baltimore Orioles podcast part of the lockon podcast Network your team every day hey there Orioles fans today is Wednesday September 11th 2024 and welcome back in to the locked on Orioles podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day as always I'm your host Conor Nukem and coming up on today's episode we are going to recap the Orioles 5 to3 victory over the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday night I'll get you the five things you need to know from that one including a huge day at the plate with multiple home runs for Cedric Mullins another big hit from adley Rutman in this series and a fantastic start from Albert Suarez but despite the Orioles getting more big hits on Tuesday they still haven't fixed the issues they've been having especially with runners in scoring position so I'll try to break down what is going on for the Orioles offense in in those situations why such a big change from last year and then finally a couple of injury updates as some O's continue to work their way back to the active roster but that's all coming up on this episode of the locked on Orioles podcast which is brought to you by Game Time download the game time app create an account and use code locked on MLB for $20 off your first purchase so we start today with an Orioles win and they had lost four or five it felt like a while since they won a baseball game and it was great to see them go to Fenway and get a w Orioles five and the Boston Red Sox 3 was the final score up in Massachusetts on Tuesday night in game two of a three- game set to even this series at one game a piece the Orioles get to 83 and 63 with the Victory and thanks to Seth Lugo who threw seven scoreless with 10ks at Yankee Stadium the Royals beat the Yankees 5 nothing on Tuesday night so the Orioles are right back there trailing the Yanks by just a half game sitting in second place in the AL East and I'm going to get you the five things you need to know from the Orioles 5 to3 win over the Red Sox and the first thing you need to know is well it was a huge huge day for Cedric Mullins who goes two for four with a walk and a couple of home runs driving in three runs in the two-hole for the second straight game and listen once again him and gunar Henderson have been the only two hot hitters for the Orioles over the past five games so Hyde for the second St great night just hitting them onew in the order and it worked now for Henderson he had a nice night on Monday he still had a one for four with a walk in this game but Mullins supplied the big stuff Cedric Mullins with a solo home run kind of whipping one around the pesky pole in the top of the first to put the Orioles up one- nothing and then much more of a no doubter in the third also off of Red Sox starter cutter Crawford crushed a two-run shot into the seats in right field to put the O's Up 3 nothing he also walked and stole a base in the ninth inning played another great day of center field defense and listen if his Bat is starting to come around and it certainly has it's been just much better overall in the second half but specifically here in September after he was really good in June and July and then August wasn't much he is 12 for 30 Cedric Mullins in September that is a 400 batting average he's got a 1333 through the first 1333 Ops I should say through the first 10 days of this month now it's a small sample size but he's doing a little bit of carrying the Orioles offense right now and he he kind of did that on Tuesday night but the O's need it for how much of a struggle they've been in and for the Orioles and for Cedric Mullins there's been less home runs lately as well and that's you know for Cedric pretty good season he's up to what 17 home runs now with the two blasts on Tuesday maybe a chance to get get to 20 we know he hasn't been the same hitter since he had the 3030 season back in 2021 but Tuesday really showed it two home runs for Mullins that was his first multi-home run game since June 19th of 2021 against the Yankees it has been well over three years he did it four times in that 2021 season when he hit 30 bombs he had four two Homer Games first one since then very cool night for Cedric Mullins second thing you need to know from this one is that adley Rutman came through with a little bit of a breakthrough hit with runners in scoring position for the Orioles we know the O's have had all the struggles in the world with runners in scoring position recently I'm going to break it even further down in the second segment of today's show and even in this game the O's had two on with no outs in the fifth they had two on in the sixth could not bring anyone home but adley came up with the bases loaded and two outs in the seventh and credit goes to Ryan o'n who kind of fought off an infield single to load the bases the batter before with two outs and keep the inning alive adley comes up the Red Sox go to the bullpen to bring in a righty to face adley and get him at his worst side from the left side they bring in Luis Guerrero rookie pitcher second appearance really good stuff but kind of wide-eyed in that spot and adley gets behind one and two the orol leading three to one Bases Loaded two outs you're like they're going to leave some more Runners and then he works the count back full and he gets a pitch on the outside corner would have been a called strike three had he taken it and he just doesn't try to do too much the O have been talking about how they're doing too much they're swinging too hard whatever it may be at the plate with runners in scoring position he just slaps the ball into left field a two-run single huge Insurance to extend the lead to five to one and listen that hit and the o'hern are or infield single right before it those were the only two hits the O's had with runners in scoring position they had chances they ended up it was another tough night in those they ended up overall two for n in those situations in this win on Tuesday but it felt like even in the past week since they stopped scoring against the White Soxs they hadn't even got a hit like that in in any of those situations so just to get one and from adley Rutman who as we talked about on yesterday's episode had his first two hit game in a while first extra base hit in a while had his first game with three hard- hit balls in a month and a half on Monday night so to see him get another big hit on Tuesday huge for him huge for the O's offense maybe just maybe it can push them in the right direction and that one swing is not going to fix everything and again it was still an issue and we'll get to it but maybe that can pick up the entire offense and speaking of the entire offense the third thing you need to know from this win is that the O's offense really spread the love in this game Orioles had the five runs on 10 hits in this one to go along with four walks as well including two from Anthony santand there but those 10 hits were spread out nicely Cedric Mullins had the two home runs those were the only two extra base hits the Orioles had it was eight singles otherwise but eight singles one each from the other eight starters Henderson santand o'hern Rutman cower Mayo holiday and mccan all each with a single in this game and none of them came in in huge spots but they did get the Orioles on base it was nice to see Kobe Mayo get a hit nice to see Jackson holiday and Colton cower get hits all guys who have certainly been struggling lately as the Orioles entire offense goes through its struggles but it feels like it hasn't happened in a while it feels like you know every hitter getting a hit in the lineup That was happening pretty regularly it felt like in the first half of the Season not as much lately as more guys have gone through bigger slumps and more of the offense has gone through slumps could be a sign of you know the Orioles need more lineup length they need more contributions from the bottom half they need everyone to step up and do their part and feed off each other it still wasn't the biggest offensive performance they still only had five runs but another good step in the right direction for the Orioles switching it to the pitching side the fourth thing you need to know from the O's win at Fenway on Tuesday is that if Cedric Mullins was star number one certainly Albert Suarez was star onea getting the start on the mound for the Orioles in this one and it's funny because he's coming off if you combine the line and the team it came against giving up six runs to the white socks last week probably the worst start of Suarez's season I mean we couldn't believe it that he pitched that poorly he was rolling along so well then got clobbered by the Chicago White Socks and you're thinking oh boy now he's facing a much better offense in a tough Park to pitch in how is this going to go well it went swimmingly for Albert Suarez six Innings of one-run ball for the Orioles veteran righty on just four hits a career high eight strikeouts to two walks on 101 pitches no homers just four heart hit balls for the Red Sox lineup against Suarez in his six Innings of work he was just fantastic and we've seen him give a handful of you know six inning one- run starts throughout this season he could arguably be the most valuable orial here in 2024 but we haven't quite seen a six inning one run start like this one because this was 21 swings and misses from Albert Suarez in this game on 53 swings that is a career-high whiffs that is a 40% whiff rate that is a leite and he spread him out then they didn't throw the cutter a whole lot so we only got two there but six whiffs on the four seamer seven whiffs on 15 swings on the curveball six whiffs on 16 swings against the change up and the great thing was it wasn't like they were all chases a lot of those pitches were in the strike zone as well his command was great and usually when we see swing and missu from Albert Suarez it's a lot of high fast balls he will pound the fast ball he still threw 394 seamers it was his most used pitch on the night but the usage was down a little bit more change up more curve balls because those things were filthy those pitches generally even when they're on aren't swinging Miss pitches for Suarez they are more like soft contact popup slow grounder pitches to get him through Innings on Tuesday those were swinging Miss pitches this was a different Albert Suarez the change up was falling off the table the curveball had incredible break that was the nastiest may maybe not the best we've seen Suarez but that was the filthiest and the nastiest that I have seen Albert Suarez back there on out again just we say it every time he pitches where would the Orioles be without Albert Suarez it is certainly another night to say that on Tuesday and the fifth and final thing you need to know from the Orioles five to3 win over the Red Sox on Tuesday that is that the bullpen had a couple of issues but they were able to lock it down CNL Perez was really good in a one two3 7th to continue a 5-1 game he came back out there in the eighth which was the right decision he's been the Orioles best Lefty you still had J Duran and rapael Des do up to begin the inning you want him to face those lefties he gives up a single but he gets Des to fly out and then the Red Sox go to the pinch hitter Rob ref Snider who crushes lefties Brandon Hyde had y your Canó ready to go and he brings in Canó perfect Bullpen management for Hyde and then Canó just you know he gives up he gets an out then he gives up a walk and then an RBI double and then on an O2 pitch second and third two outs with a 5-2 lead in the eighth he buls home a run Masson didn't have an amazing replay of the bul it was the first base umpire who called it it looked a little odd what Cano did but you couldn't really tell what exactly the bul was either way not a great way to bring in a run now he gets a strike out to keep it 53 but he made things much closer than they needed to be so Anthony Dominguez did give up a two out single but he got two k he got the save he is now 10 for 10 in saves as an orial thank you Phillies and the Orioles win the ball game a much needed win they get back with an half game beating the Red Sox by a score of 5 to3 and even though adley Rutman did get the big hit with rers in scoring position what ended up being two huge Insurance runs with his Bases Loaded single in the seventh it still again was a two for n day in those spots and the Orioles have really struggled All Season not really struggled but been worse but lately really really struggled read some good pieces about it this week I've talked about it some I wanted to break it down further let's do a full breakdown what's going on with the Orioles with Runners and scoring position is there need to be an approach change is it a mindset change is it bad luck we'll talk about all those things coming up next but first this episode of the lockdown Orioles podcast is brought to you by game time now you've heard me talk about game time and they're amazing ticket deals to Orioles games but game time now has a new feature called Game Time picks that makes getting tickets for your favorite Live Events even easier easier game time picks filters out the fluff to show you only incredible deals on great seats so you don't have to waste time searching through thousands of tickets there's amazing deals for Orioles games listen there's only one home stand left it's the Giants and the Tigers next week if you want a good deal on a ticket to see the O's one more time in the regular season game time is the place to go they've got all in pricing don't have to worry about surprise fees they've got seat views you can see where you're sitting and those game time picks curation makes it easier to save on Orioles tickets so take the guesswork out of buying tickets with Game Time download the game time app create an account and use code locked on MLB for $20 off your first purchase terms apply again create an account and redeem code locked on MLB that is l c d o n MLB for $20 off download game time today what time is it game time so even with the win on Tuesday there are clearly still some glaring issues for the Orioles offense specifically situationally hitting with Runners and scoring position and Andy Costa had a great piece in the Baltimore Banner on Tuesday that somewhat inspired me to do this episode I was already really planning on diving into this at some point this week but Andy had a great breakdown mostly they just had a lot of quotes from a lot of different Orioles hitters in that Clubhouse about what's gone wrong what needs to change how guys are approaching these situations and it really made me think because Ryan o'n had some good quotes about it's kind of a mindset thing you know it's not really that the hitting coach is doing something wrong teaching something wrong guys being injured it seems to be a mindset thing I started thinking how much can you really dive into that Brandon heyes talked about it lately the Andy article so let's try to break it down as best I can in this episode here so let's start with okay what have the Orioles done with runners in scoring position throughout the 2024 season overall this has been a great offense been a top five at worst top 10 but for a lot of the Season especially early top five offense in baseball but with runners in scoring position hasn't been the same case a 107 WRC plus with runners in scoring position is 18th best in the majors 250 average also 18th and a 22.3 strikeout rate in those spots last thing you want to do is strike out you know not even a chance to bring a run home with a grounder or a sack fly that is 16th Ops with runers in scoring position 743 that is 18th but their hard hit r of fan graphs which is a little bit different of a calculation numbers tend to be a little lower than the baseball Savant and Stat cast calculation is 33.5% that is third highest so the first thing I notice here overall the Orioles have been production-wise about League average with runners in scoring position this year but they have still hit the ball harder than almost anyone so the first look told me the O are having some bad luck with runners in scoring position and that is some of this because overall before we get into everything Runners and scoring position numbers are generally not sticky year-to year what that means is it's not something that's really easy to replicate success with year after year because they are kind of random when you really think about it there could be a little bit of a mindset change or more pressure on you and that's certainly true but in terms of what you're doing at the plate how much of a difference is there really if you're hitting with a runner on First with two outs or a runner on second with two outs especially if it's say the fourth inning it's not really much of a difference there in terms of what you are doing and your situation at the plate so it can be kind of random with just sequencing and situational and who's up with runners in scoring position that's why it's really hard to look at this year-over-year and this next stat will show you that because the Orioles offense while they've gotten one year older and one more year more experienced it's really been a very similar lineup personnel-wise to what the Orioles sent out there in 2023 but when you look at what the O's did last year they were one of if not the best teams with Runners and scoring position last season for the Orioles they had a 128 WRC plus that was best in baseball 287 batting average with runers in scoring position best in baseball 838 Ops best in baseball 18.7% strikeout rate second best in baseball and then the one that's interesting 31.4% fan graph's hard hit rate 18th in baseball so 2023 is completely flipped while 2024 was mostly middle of the- pack numbers then hard hit was great you're saying they must be getting unlucky 2023 was top-of-the-line numbers and then middling hard hit rate it's like I think the Orioles got lucky or they were getting very unlucky this year might have gotten a little lucky La last Year and that happens a lot with runners in scoring position because again say you come up in the fifth inning in a one-1 game with a runner on First and two outs and on a 1-1 pitch you take a strike and the runner steals second all of a sudden you're behind one and two and this at bat just became with a runner and scoring position that's how much these things can change and how random they can truly be which is why it's really hard for this to be sticky year to year and the other thing is there's been some thoughts of okay are the Orioles just way worse with runners in scoring position than they are in any other spot so if you look at their overall offensive stats this year it's a 115 WRC plus that's third a 250 average is right on par with their Runners and scoring position average that's 10th 21.7% strikeout rate basically the same is 12th 754 Ops is a little bit higher that's Fifth and their hard hit rate is about the same it's in the top five in baseball so across the board they are a little bit worse at everything when they're hitting in with runners in scoring position versus just overall hitting in any situation but it's not a big enough of a difference where you're saying wow they must be horrendous with runners in scoring position this year and I mean it's a 243 average with the bases empty so the or have actually been better with Runners and scoring position than they've been with bases empty on the year they're just kind of not getting rewarded for hitting the ball hard now one thing that has happened recently which was interesting is the or's hard hit rate with runners in scoring position is third in baseball throughout the year it was third in the first half it's been 19th in the second half well we can say how does that happen well they've just had they've had less chances the second half of the season has been shorter 19th in the second half so you can say their struggles especially since the All-Star break have been more to okay they're not making as much quality contact that certainly makes sense even though the strikeout rate is is around the same that it has been so if you're comparing 2024 to 23 really the big difference is the strikeout rate it was what 4% lower last year 3 to 4% lower in these spots so the first thing you could say is okay the Orioles need to stop striking out so much with runners in scoring position they'll have more success that is absolutely correct because when you come up with second and third and one out and the infields back if you a ground ball a second you're bringing a run if you strike out you don't that that's how things can change too with Runners and scoring position that doesn't even add to your average in those spots but still helps your team and gets runs on the board but even if they strike out less it doesn't mean that they'll also have good luck if they just put the ball in play more because you could still be putting the ball in play with not quality contact I mean they're already hitting it pretty hard and not getting rewarded so if you hit it more you have more chances to get rewarded but it's not a guarantee things are going to be better it could also be as we look at this and again the struggles are there certainly but we're trying to figure out what's going on it could also be that it's gotten worse recently we just read it out right the hard hit rate has gotten worse the numbers have gotten worse in the second half slightly so it's more noticeable as the games get you feel bigger and bigger but the biggest thing might be and this is the most interesting thing I uncovered when doing a lot of This research is in terms of when in the game these struggles with runners in scoring position are happening now these stats I'm all talking about are going into play on Tuesday so they do not include Tuesday's game but of course they include most of the season with runners in scoring position in high leverage now fan graphs has three different leverage indexes they have low leverage medium leverage and high leverage High Leverage is generally close games seventh eighth and ninth inning so the big spots in the game while the Orioles are hitting 250 overall with runners in scoring position about middle of the pack in the league they are hitting just 202 in high leverage situations with runners in scoring position that is 29th in Major League Baseball only the white socks have hit worse in those exact High leverage Runners and scoring position situations this year and also not only that they are striking out 26.8% of the time with runners in scoring position in high leverage that is worse than the white socks that is 30th dead last in Major League Baseball their hard hit rate is 11th so they're still the ball hard but they're not putting it in play and they're swing and missing too much so there's still some bad luck there but that is a big strikeout issue and I think that is if you want to pinpoint one thing that's going wrong that is where it is it's not that they're striking out too much in general in these spots it's that when the game gets real tough and you're in the seventh eth and Ninth and it's a one or two Run game and you have these spots basically what we saw in the eighth and ninth inning on Sunday in the two nothing lost to the Rays when the O's got two on in the eighth and Ninth and just struck out a bunch of times and didn't bring anyone home and lost the game that's when they're swinging and missing that's when they're not putting the ball in play that's where it is becoming an issue and Ryan o'hern talked in Andy Costa's piece about just putting too much pressure on himself to come through with runners in scoring position you heard some similar things from other players but that might be what we're seeing here is that when the leverage gets high and the pressure's on and you know a hit will change the game the O's are just putting too much pressure on themselves and and they are getting unlucky and again this is not sticky year to year but this is the least analytical thing I might ever say on this podcast this is half joking half serious but in these spots do some of these o hitters just not have that dog in them right now with Runners and scoring position I mean I say it tongue and cheek but also it could be a little bit of just combination of mindset pressure and nerves that's specifically in those High leverage Runners and scoring position spots it's getting to them a little bit and it I would I would guess it's more mindset than than nerves I mean these guys when you get to the big leagues to be a starting big leager on a first place team you've gotten over a lot of the pressure and nerves that comes with your baseball career but it could be just they need to reset and get back into the right mindset and it's important to say generally when you are in high leverage spots you're facing better pitchers you're facing the closer and the setup man in really good pens so it's tougher to hit in general in those spots because you're facing better pitching across the board mostly stats go down in high leverage but this is really really low again only the white socks have been worse so you might think okay what did the O's do in those spots last year when they were so good with Runners and scoring position they were even better in high leverage in 2023 in high leverage spots with Runners on second or third base or both the Orioles hit 311 that was the best in the majors they had a slow heartbeat and came through in the huge spots so whatever they did in those specific spots last year just just maybe bring it back to this year find a way the conclusion is here that the the rist stats they're not sticky they're kind of random it's about timing sequencing situation you know who's up in the lineup when these come up and I I really think that yeah there could be a little bit of an approach change and yeah they do have to strike out l in the biggest of big spots but what could the fix be I mean that the hitting coaches are staying with the same approach that has worked throughout most of the year that has worked for years now the hitters Rave about this coaching staff they're trying to do damage in big spots and that is going to play out well in the long run especially in the postseason but what could the fix be I mean maybe just to relax a little bit and that could be easier than thinking you need like major approach changes or major mechanical changes at the plate maybe it's just a little bit of a different mindset and relaxing again I don't love coming to conclusions where it's more Vibes based than anything especially on this podcast but that's what it seems to come to in the biggest of big spots the oros might be in their heads a little bit and they've got 16 games to figure it out and hopefully they can now the other thing is it doesn't really help that basically the oro's three best hitters this year with runners in scoring position Jordan Westberg hon kirad and Ramon Aras are currently on the injured list that does not help but maybe some good news on that front we'll get to that to finish off the Pod coming up next but first this episode of the lockon Orioles podcast is also brought to you by prize picks which is America's number one daily fantasy sports app with over 5 million active members all you do at prize picks after you download the app is pick more or less on two to 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out for a while with that broken hand there was video of him taking grounders on the field at Fenway Park before Tuesday's game and the biggest thing was because it was his right hand that is broken he was not only Fielding the ground balls from both third base and second base but he was putting them in his throwing hand he was throwing them across the diamond to first he played catch in the Outfield before the game then he took grounders at second and third he threw to first base that is huge news for Westberg him and Brandon Hyde said he plans to start hitting quote soon we'll see how soon that is but he is progressing towards being able to start swinging and hitting and hopefully coming back to join this Orioles team before the regular season is over also more good news on Hon kurad he is continuing his rehab stint did so in double a buoy on Tuesday night the aine and Del Marva seasons are over so only Buie and norfol are left so kurad will probably play a little bit in Buoy and then go back to Triple A norfol and then at that point you know hopefully maybe next week if he's feeling okay the Orioles will decide whether or not he's ready with those concussions to come back to the big leagues and then finally not any kind of concrete Ramon orus update but we know how well he was swinging it before he went down with the sprained ankle last weekend brand had simply just basically said that Ramona Rus is ahead of schedule in the injury recovery right now so that is certainly it can only be a good thing to get hopefully these guys back for the Orioles and also as I mentioned yesterday today in Triple A Danny kulum makes his first rehab appearance on the mound so hopefully he is close to returning to the Orioles as well that'll do it for today's episode thank you so much for tuning in make sure to like comment and subscribe to the locked on Orioles YouTube channel also leave a festar rating and a review wherever you listen to the Pod as well we will be back tomorrow recapping game three between the O's and the socks it is the rubber match Orioles and Red Sox for the O's Dean Kramer takes the mound coming off six hitless Innings to begin his last start he will go up against the right-hander Nick pavetta 31-year old with a 4.38 ER on the season O's have seen Peta a good amount over the past couple of years because he has been with Boston for a while one start this year against the O who was at Camden Yards on August 15th Orioles got him for three runs over five innings of work had a couple of long balls against pavetta in that one hopefully the O can continue to score on him in Wednesday's game and then I'll be back on Thursday to recap it all but until then I'm Conor Nukem and this has been the lockon Orioles podcast part of the lockon podcast Network your team every day