Jets-49ers Showdown Strategy MNF Week 1 DFS Picks | NFL DFS Strategy

[Music] man oh man hey good morning sorry we're late this is actually on me this time and not Jordan Klein sleeping in I have to get a betting video out before this over on the odd shopper channel and sometimes sometimes it takes a while so my my sincerest apologies you can hear it in my voice I'm sure but but anyway welcome to the stochastic dcom NFL showdown strategy show W yeah we got um we got Matt kesi with me as always and I've gotta say Matt we've seen some bad Prime Time games and I'm sure we will going forward matter of fact I already looked at next week's games they're pretty sick again but how how nice were these I mean final drive between Kansas City Baltimore crazy finish with the Isaiah likele non touchdown Eagles Packers down to the final drive high-scoring game in Brazil last night overtime between the the Lions and the Rams another great game 14-point comeback for for the Rams actually no I think they scored 17 unanswered and then the Lions kicked the field go to go to now we got Aaron roders in the Jets against the Niners on Monday Night Football this have been a great week of Prime Time games dude yet has it's been a great week of football in general the main slight yesterday was a little bit gross but a lot of the games came in down to the wire or were within a single score at the end only a few blowouts so it's been a really exciting week of football and then on the Prime Time stuff where you get the absolute stars of the game like Lamar momes tonight Rogers pury mcaffrey that's exactly how you draw it up so it's been awesome for viewing it's been awesome for DFS well happy to have you guys with us appreciate your patience if you don't mind I'll atone for my sins right now and hit that thumbs up but Matt I would ask politely that you do the same Hammer that thumbs up subscribe to the channel it goes a long way and we're greatly appreciative appreciative for all of your support here also leave a comment down below where you at for tonight's game I read and respond to all of them uh every single time yeah Nick said Sam darnold comeback player of the year yeah I did not expect I did not expect any of that yesterday dude that award always confuses me are we permitting people that just suck to win it um you know like if what are you coming back from being bad that's true so like I like maybe you're coming back from being in like bad situations like Sam darnold in his career could we say he's coming back from atrocious coaching I mean I think it counts I these a these awards are so fluid I don't know what counts and what not what doesn't count in my head coming back means like something you couldn't control like an injury or something but no no last year Joe flacko got it yeah it's he shouldn't have got it in my opinion like what is he coming back from he just suck stop it yes he you can't tell me that someone like Demar Hamlin should have gotten it over Joe flacko Demar Hamlin he got you have to play too dear hlin was like minus 400 before the season even started and the guy was a backup yeah I mean he shouldn't qualify either because he technically didn't come back he didn't play before he didn't play after right that's true I don't know man I see what you're saying but then the problem is you have such limited options like I haven't looked at anything but my guess is that odd the odds on like it has to be Aaron Rodgers right right now yeah probably I would I would guess so I can't remember who was injured coming into last year so I just haven't thought about this in a while generally I don't like betting this Market obviously because it's just so Whimsical Whimsical yeah it is it is it's it's it's stupid I didn't bet it either but I I bet it's got to be Aaron roggers I haven't looked either anyway oh here we go Awards let's see comeback Player of the Year Aaron Rodgers plus yeah plus 125 Joe burrow plus 500 Richardson plus 650 darnold Plus 750 there's actually a lot of guys that were out last year you're right burrow Rogers Richardson chub see Trey in the chat says should win most improved player that's the perfect award for darnold yes yes it's also like such an insulting title of an award most improved player you know it feels like it feels like something the kid and eight like the the eight-year-old soccer team with the inter mural soccer team would get you know what I mean like Billy you did really great this year and you've you've come a long way I I don't know if I'd want to win most improved player in the NFL yeah I don't know if I would either all right let's get into it let's talk Jets ners so we'll start with the Jets I want to and toss it over to you four they're fourpoint dogs uh full disclosure I bet the Jets in this game but this is a team okay we'll talk offensively because we'll get to the Jets defense when we talk about the Niners offense but Niners have a great second day we know that they have a great defensive line both of these teams are stacked across the board the thing about the Jets that is more intriguing to me maybe even than Aaron roders is the fact that they had a terrible offensive line last year Elijah Vera Tucker was out they had problems from from left to right all season long and also a terrible quarterback that couldn't even even sense pressure coming but now you bring in Morgan Moses you have Elijah Vera Tucker back and you have Tyron Smith this could go from one of the worst to one of the best offensive lines in football this year you have Garrett Wilson Bree Hall Mike Williams who likely limited hasn't played in a while Tai Conlin Allen Lazard whatever but what if this offensive line really lives up to the height Matt they've got some big names on this line yeah I think their line is maybe one of the most improved units in the entire NF gree you didn't even mention their first round pick Olu fashanu who's probably not going to play for this team unless there's an injury they're absolutely loaded they loaded I don't think there's any way around it this is probably a top five unit in the NFL and if you think that's being generous it's no less than a top 10 unit just bringing in the names they did returning some from injury and then adding a book in like fan who should be ideally one of your tackles for the foreseeable future when he gets on the field and it's nice they can actually develop him not to mention like Conlin's a pretty good blocker for a tight end he's he's very underrated in my opinion for what he gives your offense maybe not the best fantasy performer but he does a lot in real life football man imagine on defense if reick wasn't holding out this team is so loaded across the board at every position yeah I don't know what reck's doing man I know yeah yeah you're not in Philly anymore and now they I don't know it's I don't know if it's going to end well for him either way um it's kind of tough it's not tough to talk about offense in this game but it is one of those spots where you have really great players and all of them in pretty awful matchups Garrett Wilson though what if Garrett Wilson and this is what I keep coming back to what if Garrett Wilson starts seeing volume that guys like Devonte Adams and Jordy Nelson saw when Aaron roggers was the quarterback because this listen he had a thousand plus yards in each of his first two seasons and you want to be like yeah but seven I don't care he had Zack Wilson these are these were his quarterbacks Zack Wilson Tim Bole Mike White Trevor Simeon and then like a game or two from Joe flaca and four snaps from Rogers and Matt he put up a thousand plus yards with busted up offensive lines in both of those Seasons That's pretty remarkable playing with what I would say is the worst collection of quarterbacks over a two-year span that any team could field yeah absolutely I think it's actually an accomplishment as well in a, yards even if it's 17 games is still pretty noteworthy for just about any receiver but if that gives you pause look at the underlying metrics 29.9% Target share basically 30% there's a little more competition this year but most of it is pretty old and I think you could poke hes in every single person that Garrett Wilson will be competing for targets with and he's an absolute monster when he's on the field 45% of the air yards 35% of the Red Zone targets I mean there's nothing to say negatively about Garrett Wilson and now that you can actually upgrade the quarterback he it's wheels up for him this year what do you think about him tonight I have absolutely no issues with them tonight if I were to poke holes in the San Francisco defense it's certainly on the back end I think their front seven is very very good but there's some players in the secondary that I think you could definitely take advantage of you know like travarius Ward is pretty good but Isaac yam and dador Lenoir I don't really think are all that good at football I mean panga is not going to play in this game so the secondary is a little weaker you just hope that offensive line puts it all together right away in the first game because the the defensive line is really good for sure and again you know we're going to run into the same thing every time you and I talk about a player there's going to be the caveat of like yeah well really horrible matchup here's a fun qu here's a fun question for you do you think there is one like if you had to and it could be anybody right it could be Tai Conlin or Alan lzard do you think there is one great matchup or Far and Away better matchup than the others for either team in this game I think the best match up are trying to Target the secondaries and I think it I think it's a little easier on the New York side the San Francisco secondary I think is just a little bit weaker when you look at the Jets secondary you still have like s Garder H he's really like the book in guy there but I mean up front for both these teams we're talking absolute studs like quinnon Williams is perhaps the best defensive tackle in football now that Aaron Donald's retired you have kinlaw Johnson there the San Francisco defensive line is just as as good highlighted by Bosa and their front Seven's excellent so while there's like a name or two in each of the secondaries that I think you'd be a little fearful of primarily sauce I still think that's probably the easiest path to victory for both teams so do I boy is it gross yeah two excellent defenses really good uh that's why for me you know it's kind of all right so I I look at this in one of two ways one I look at it as okay where can I find the volume and then two I go all right since it's such a difficult matchup pretty much everywhere where can I find some of the cheap options because maybe like these mid-range guys just don't offer us what we're looking for I mean Mike Williams at that price I think could be difficult to get to are there cheap options here on either I mean zavier do you think Xavier Gibson plays a role also I will say this much guy can is he still the is he still returning kicks for them I hope so yeah he should be watch the inactives for the Jets because they have like I don't know they they do weird things I would expect it to be Gibson and Malachi Corley rounding out the receiver room I don't think they keep six Active but that's who I'm anticipating right now with Gibson being mainly a special teamer agreed but also I'm not convinced at all that like okay so I'm not can if you were to use one of the you know non this is why I say this because if Mike Williams is in fact limited right and we don't see him out there for the bo like I would expect Garrett Wilson to be out there the entire game for the most part do you agree yeah okay and I would think that Alan Lazard is out there for you know a good chunk of this game as well last year Garrett Wilson was legitimately playing 90 to 100% of snaps every single game Lazard was a little bit more back and forth but played a lot Malachi gley is a rookie I know they like him but I I think actually Gibson would be the guy over Corley that I'd be looking to get to and the reason for that is that with these new kickoff rules we've seen a lot of big returns La yesterday there's potential there I don't actually mind targeting some special teamers who could also get on the field for a reception or two maybe some you know Gadget type plays he's not that much more expensive than Corley Gibson's one of my one of the cheap guys that I'd actually look towards because he has that special teams upside week one last year I think it was Monday Night Football when Aaron roggers got hurt it was the 911 game Gibson had that that big run back for a touchdown yeah to be honest with you I truly don't know how Snaps are going to shake out for this Jets team with all the uncertainty and I think if he's active which he very well should be that's the first step to getting on the field and we've seen the Jets rotate quite a bit and aside from Garrett Wilson you have an aging Mike Williams off the knee injury Alan Lazard is a veteran he's steady but I don't think he's somebody you'd prefer to play 90% of the snaps corley's a gadget rookie player at this point in his career hopefully he can develop into something more than that you got to fill out some snaps somewhere and Gibson has been reliable enough to play offensive snaps and you bring up good points with the Special Teams I don't hate him either if we're targeting someone really cheap from the Jets I think the safest option is Lazard but I also think he comes with the most ownership at 2K it's either him or Conlin like if you have the extra 1.2k to get up to Concklin or 3.6k if you can get up there from Lazard I think he'll be somewhat on two but the second we start talking about Corley and Gibson I think you're shaving off a lot of ownership agreed I actually for what it's worth I like Conlin above any of those guys but you know if I'm talking between Gibson and Corley for me it would actually be would be Xavier Gibson I wouldn't be surprised if Corley sees very limited playing time tonight if any do you prefer Gibson to Lazard I might I agree with you on corly for what it's worth but I with Aaron Rogers too the guy who's I know I'm sorry I I I I'm sorry I had I had the price point wrong on Alan Lazard no no no no Allan Lazard oh I I I didn't know Lazard was was 400 cheaper than Gibson um no I was surpris he's got a shocking price tag I don't understand that but here here's what I here's what I would say uh looking at ownership where's Alan Lazard at he has hold on a second let me pull this up do you have it because Alan Lazard has to be exponentially more owned than Gibson right or am I crazy here he's not that owned in our projections at 2K he's negatively leveraged for us which is a surprise huh he Gibson we have only at eight% utility we have Lazard at 18 so that's a big jump from one to the other but it's still um 8.6 for Gibson so two times the ownership but it's it's still less than I would have thought on Lazard well I guess the I guess the question then becomes what are these builds gonna look like for people uh if they're not getting to a ton of Lazard and Gibson probably a decent amount of kickers which makes sense in a game like this with two good defenses I think kickers make for great plays today uh you mentioned Tai Conlin that's a pretty obvious one like he'll be the chalki he'll be the chalki sub 4K guy by a mile if you're not including defenses I think so I did I ran the Sims this morning I got an absurd amount of kickers to your point on that yeah me too but what I'll say to that for tournaments especially and we've been saying this all week this is the least certain we're ever going to be on projections there's a lot of questions with the roles in the Jets wide receiver room if you just go to our Pro we definitely have this projected as a split especially the wide receiver three position when everyone's fully healthy that's what Lazard should be playing I still think at 2K he's a player that can just be an Avenue to getting you studs as well and there's not that many I'm really excited about but I think he's probably the safest of those players and that's assuming you can't get up to Conlin do you think corley's even going to be active yeah I would think so but it wouldn't like I wouldn't be shocked to see him coming inactive but I do think he will be playing tonight okay because yeah I mean this is a guy that down the road could be good but training camp he was pretty inconsistent uh I know you weren't doing DFS for or for preseason this year so I don't know how much you paid attention to it but I I played every slate okay all right from I should have known from a betting pers perspective I remember he played like the entire first half of one or two game like he was out there a lot in the preseason as well so I I think they still have the training wheels on this fella they should I mean this I don't want to compare him to Sky Moore but he went to a terrible school and all they did was throw him a million bubble screens like he has a ton of learning to do he did nothing from an actual wide receiver standpoint in college and he went to a horrific school so he like this is a massive jump just like it was from for Sky Moore coming out of Western Michigan to the NFL we had a guy coming from a gimmicky offense in college at Western Kentucky to the New York Jets playing with Aaron roggers like imagine the learning curve for this guy it's got to be insane yeah yeah it's got to be nuts and they've actually talked about that I was reading reports out of New York there was there was some of that happening for sure um speaking of rookies I watch I was listening to your live before lock yesterday when we when I was building lineups after my deeper dive show and um you know I had talked up M Malik neighbors a lot I heard you doing the same I think both of us were on the same page just the volume what a disgrace Daniel Jones has be like yeah neighbors have five for 66 is fine but it's just remarkable how you can finally get that guy and still I know it's only one week but what a disgrace imagine Malik neighbors going to a team that had a quality coord back the guy's putting up a 100 yards every week yeah I mean talk about a Garrett Wilson situation y yeah pretty much sucks listen to this plays to Malik neighbors plus 4.1 EPA all other Giants plays negative 20.7 EPA that cannot be right that is that is true H and he somehow only had seven targets juand Del Robinson had nine yeah we're going to see Daniel Jones benched mid Midway through the year at the latest if this continues you know it's it's not the worst thing in the world we're being honest like would you would you rather have Danny Jones at this point or Drew lock I would honestly rather have drew lock at least Drew lock isn't afraid to throw like at least Drew locko Target his man downfield yeah I don't know they they like kind of made their their bed now they have to lay in it by signing Daniel Jones to any kind of contract so it's like I don't know you this regime has to bite the bullet and decide if they're willing to ride it out and be bad and maybe try to draft the future next time they get an opportunity to I I don't know what they're going to do but they've just made a horrible decision now they have to live with it crazy the the troubling part is like everyone saw coming from a mile away going back to the NFL draft where he was wildly overdrafted everyone saw it coming and they still paid him they still paid him and then you know like sequan Barkley leaves puts up three I will never understand by the way all of the hate for Sequon Barkley coming in I have never seen so many baseball people talking about how big of a disappointment he was going to be it's like the eagles don't sign running backs to big money they never do my sanders they let him go they cut him loose uh DeAndre Swift you're GNA use the guy you're gonna use him but then people hate him because he decided that he wanted to get out of New York that's just insane yeah I mean I don't know why you'd be hating a player really for any reason outside of off the field stuff no I don't know either way um by what I should point this out we have 700 people watching with us right now Matt for a uh a showdown strategy show that is much appreciated thank you all for being here truly means a lot that you would take some time out of your day to spend it with us so thank you very much hopefully we get a great game it's a great game yeah hit that thumbs up too uh look I I don't usually say this for morning shows but if we could rip this North to like 250 or something that'd be awesome tone just a subtle reminder for those who forget and we appreciate you all right so I think we've I don't know how we streamlined that process so well almost accidentally talking about this New York Jets team but the only guy and then we'll build a lineup too because that's going to be important there's one guy before we get to Bree Hall that I want to talk about and of course Aaron Rogers but what about Mike Williams Because I I think I have the toughest time getting to Williams at that price point in a really tough matchup with him coming off a a season ending injury Midway through last season he's one I'm a little uncertain on our tools certainly don't like him but you're also gambling on just like Health stuff so I'm going to see where ownership comes in on him throughout the day he was excellent in a very short sample last year before the injury he was excellent before then if people are not going to click his name just because of the injury I think I might end up a little over the field but I'm going to play this by year and wait and see throughout the day he's also tricky because he's not cheap so that's going to be a factor as well that's the issue that I keep running into so yes you have an expensive Garrett Wilson but also just it's it's hard to believe Garrett Wilson is not the clear number one in this offense in the passing game of course uh I also while I I love Bree Hall I I it's funny this team Bree Hall and G Wilson have become two of my favorite players and maybe it's because they made something out of absolute [ __ ] you know the past couple of years where most most skill players wouldn't have been able to do that so I'm just I'm pulling I'm legitimately pulling for these guys but I don't anticipate Bree Hall seeing those you know 12 13 10 Target games of which we saw last year you know we saw a bunch of nine Target games a 16 Target game I think he had we one two three four five five games of nine plus targets with Aaron Rogers at the helm and a bolstered offensive line as much as I love Breece Hall I don't think you're going to see as much passing volume go to him this year than we did last year I agree with with that I still think it'll be pretty good me too anytime you can get nine targets it's like unless you're Alvin chimra it's pretty big outlier but I think the efficiency that he'll see kind of makes up for that you know he was kind of being targeted eight nine times a game just because of overall inefficiency of the offense and that led to less touchdowns less yards per carry like less overall efficiencies less points and now we're kind of trading out just the dumb targets that Zach Wilson would dump to him every single play for what we project to be more rushing Lanes more touchdowns more trips to the end zone more overall points even in a tough matchup I think he is the second best raw workload of any running back in the NFL behind only mcaffrey which is crazy these guys are playing each other so I I'm very very enticed by Bree Hall even at the elevated price point I'm not really all that scared of the matchup I think his volume is just going to be that good I I love him as well and my point was more towards I think that that Bree Hall's is going to be nuts this year and it's going to be more efficient what I was saying was more so like I think you could see even more targets spread to your pass catchers because yeah because you don't need to dump it off to Bree hall nine times every game um but yeah I I love them there's just there there's nobody behind them that you have to use either right like you don't have any running back behind Bree Hall that you should feel obligated to use uh he's he's but okay so at their at the respective price points Bree Hall uh 10-2 in the flex Christian mcaffry at 116 how much higher than Bree Hall do you have mcaffrey tonight we have it pretty considerable in projections I think I would not have it that far honestly I agree I don't think the roles are all that different aside from mcaffry is more of a priority in the past game but would you be surprised if breea and mcaffrey have like almost the same touch count but Bree it's let's say they both have 25 touches mcaffry it's like 18 carries seven catches Bree HW might be like 21 carries four catches or something that would not surprise me at off it's very similar touch count but mcaffry just has a few more high value touches so I honestly think I would make it narrower than where we have it agreed and both in bad matchups too right so it's not like one of them has a a markedly better matchup either so just yeah pretty also Bree Hall even coming off the injury last year was good pre-injury two years ago was phenomenal the Breakaway speed the Breakaway touchdowns we saw a lot before he got hurt I remember it was that Packers game he got hurt and he had like a 50- yard touchdown right before that um there's something to be said about just Bree Hall in the volume here if you had to pay up for three guys and let's say we can include quarterbacks here as well spoiler alert I don't love the quarterbacks in this game nearly as much as I like the skill players uh and I would actually be interested in building out a lineup with neither quarterback and seeing how it grades out in our single lineup Sim who would your top three skill players be for this game mcaffrey Bree Hall and Garrett Wilson me too and I would assume for you this is not a matchup thing but a Consolidated workload situation whereas in San Francisco you have Debo you have auk you have KD um you have a bunch of ways that they distribute the ball it's not that Alan Lazard might not get anything or Mike Williams but it feels like going into week one Bree Hall and Garrett Wilson are the clear one in onea and whatever fashion from a workload standpoint yeah absolutely and that's just from a raw workload perspective the second you start talking about tournaments I think you can introduce those players you just mentioned a little more yep but from raw projection who's likeliest to have the better games for Fantasy it's McCaffrey Bree and gett Wilson I think what about the quarterbacks we can touch on both of them here tough spot it feels like a game and you and I are usually pretty locked in on this stuff right we're in we're usually over the target we've done this enough by now doesn't it kind of feel like one of those games where you could have you know a receiver on each side be optimal and maybe the running backs or one of the running backs but then the quarterbacks not be necessary especially given that they're like Rogers is the furthest thing from you know the definition of mobility and while Brock py might run once in a while he might not be totally statuesque but he's also not Lamar Jackson absolutely and the thing to to really highlight here is just how condensed the target trees are it's more condensed for New York at least what we're projecting with Garrett Wilson I think he probably has a similar Target share to last year the 30ish percent given his talent and the talent of the rest of this room this is probably where he ends up with San Francisco it's a little more spread but it's basically still the same guys you expect from last year mainly auk Debo mcaffrey and then KD mixes in two the reason like Brock was so important last year and valuable was like his yards per attempt was off the charts the efficiency was absolutely nuts with him playing one of the better defenses in the NFL I'm not sure if it's quite there so I think I would still rather gamble on the skill position players than take a shot on Brock pry himself to your point he's not going to run quite as much as some other signal callers and I don't think his Mobility is all that much better than Aaron Rogers right now or at least he doesn't he's not required to do it in the Shanahan offense it's probably a lot better but just doesn't do it a lot I'm with you and by the way guys if you wanted to get all of our tools for tonight's game uh that includes the single lineup Sim or the actual pre-contest Sim the single lineup Sim is where you can actually build your lineup out and get instant well Matt and I are going to use it in a second it's just an incredible Tool uh we actually had a buddy or not a buddy one of our viewers took down 5K with it I assume have more screenshots rolling in but took down 5K yesterday with a single lineup Sim just in the first week of using it so I bet there's a lot more out there we're going to start getting these Hall of Fame tweets for sure but uh single lineup Sim where you can get instant feedback on all of your lineups that you build out yourself it is the perfect combination perfect Synergy between someone who likes to build out hand lineups with them by their hand by hand I know I do Ben does Matt I know you like to as well sometimes and then also getting that feedback through simming that lineup thousands of time with our Sims tools so uh it's really cool but also the pre-contest Sim and the contest generator generate up to a thousand lineups do it that way one thing I love to do is I like to use that and then see what type of lineups look great and then I actually start building some out myself in a single lineup Sim so I'm working with both of those um you know to complement each other you're also getting the the top Showdown and stacks tool that I think Matt and I have been using for like seven years on this show now uh it's been a while man the ownership player projections lineup generator premium Discord come into our premium Discord say what's up join the community and ask any questions you have everything for a dollar tonight you got a Millie up top got big stuff on FanDuel across the across the industry this is$ one so even if you're playing five dollar tonight you're spending $1 to make better lineups I mean our Showdown tools have crushed in the past and I anticipate the same being the case this year so Link in the description and in the chat this is the last day we will have this promo running so if you've missed out up until this point last day Link in the description and chat $1 for all of our NFL tools tonight for the Core weekly package and while you're at it make sure to download the stochastic ho Hall of Fame Avatar use it wherever it is you play and get rewarded in huge ways just go to stochastic docomo that's it download one of them there's six of them if you finish top three in a field of 5,000 or more boom tweet your wins to us it's the as the H and get rewarded huge first time you win in a calendar year $200 Sims package anyone you want win again in a calendar year get silver tier $200 Sims package again plus a week of any other sport so like football basketball now you have both of them win for a third time gold tier $550 all access Sims and get any win 20 plusk Hall of Fame ring baby with your name in it with the stochastic Avatar or logo in there spinning display case with the plaque on front your name the win the date how much you won what content really cool stuff so we got the best rewards program out there do yourself a favor rock that Avatar so when you win you win even more all right so I think I'm actually not opposed to going defensive captain tonight how how crazy am I I don't think you're crazy there's a lot of really expensive studs so I think the Sim tool is going to give you some of those lineups not just from lever standpoint but just because you're going to get lineups then that have more studs in the flat so it's a different way to build when I ran it this morning I did get a little defense in the captain spot but I want to see how this goes throughout the day I think a lot of it will come down to ownership yeah good point I still don't think defense is ever going to be that popular a captain like we have Jets what 1% we have Niners 2% I think I have a sneaky suspicion that Jets score a defensive touchdown today that would not surprise me biggest thing I look for with potentially forecasting defensive touchdowns like the most volatile forecasting in the business of course do you have a pass rush that can cause pressure and put the opposing offense in tricky situations where turnovers might arise both these defenses have that in different ways you know San Francisco's largely going to work through Bosa New York can disrupt from the interior with Quinn and Williams but they both have very disruptive pass rushes they do and also if there's one weakness on this ners team outside of Trent Williams this offensive line has some question marks and Trent Williams just recently ended his hold out so I know they said he won't be limited but I don't even believe he was practicing that isn't to say that on the side he wasn't doing work but he wasn't at practice what if this offensive line just doesn't hold up as well as as we think it going to against this Jets defensive line that is one spot where I think you could actually run into some trouble if you're San Francisco's offense I think the weakest part of San Francisco's offensive line is the interior where you're relying on Aaron Banks Jake Brendle and Dominic puny that's right where you're going to see Quinn and Williams line up I don't think the tackles are quite as bad TR Williams you already mentioned hopefully he's in shape off the hold out mckids I think is okay at the other end but man they're going to need to do something about quinnon Williams and I'm not sure they have the bodies that can hold up in there you think they can blow him up in the middle I think they could qu man quinnon Williams is so good he's amazing this te I mean how many if you're a football guy you know if you love football like us how many household names again a household that likes football are on this defense for the Jets it's crazy yeah you you definitely need to be a household that likes defensive studs but yeah quinnon Williams s Gardner have got to be two of the more famous defensive NFL players in the NFL Reed is nasty though too yeah he is like their one-w punch is crazy so yeah they've got they've got some guys anyway that's what yeah I like the either defense here I'm not really opposed to getting to at all I I I could see this being a low-scoring game plus it's week one you know that game last night Rams never play their starters in the preseason you know this remember they play one quarterback sometimes for all 60 Minutes in every single preseason game it's pretty fun I missed when it was like Bryce Perkins and not some of the Dust they've been playing recently dude Perkins is exactly who I was referring to Perkins played every snap in the preseason in 2021 every yeah he can run too so it was fun when it happened uh who was it this year uh ston Bennett yeah he's Dusty got picked off four times in his first game yeah that was bad but suppose no one wants to hear us talk about preseason backup I mean shout out to Todd monin for getting that getting a national championship out of that guy did he yeah I I don't I don't follow college like you I don't even how was that oh yeah right that's right he was actually like but was he ever good in college or was he just on a good team statson yeah was he good in college or was he just on a good team I mean he had good numbers but he's basically playing with an NFL roster in college football so it's it's very hard to say I mean you can put pretty bad quarterbacks like he was a walk-on so you can throw some pretty bad quarterbacks into Georgia's situation and probably look pretty good so it's hard to separate his individual Talent from those around him but early returns seemed to suggest that it was more so The Supporting Cast how about kickers today kickers are looking a little better than normal in our projections and I think that's largely because we have a lot of rotating from the players that are occupying the wide receiver three spots we don't have a lot of like backup running back Equity because we have two of the best workloads in the entire NFL so I think kickers are a pretty solid play just because they're going to give you steady production and they allow you to get up to the more expensive guys whereas like no one would be surprised if he took a zero from like Corley or something I'm looking at the Sim results right now I just favored at 150 lineups highest own Captain is mcaffrey 10% Jake Moody as well and 5% Greg zerin so there is some some kicker Captain I'm I'm I'm a little I might boost Jets d a little bit in this spot I tend to think that this defense is good to the point where like you might be seeing them just put up insane Showdown scores at times I know it's a tougher matchup for sure but I have some and you know what it is too how do you ex how do you anticipate a defense no matter how good they were last year how do you expect them to hold up across four quarters every game when they're on the field for the entirety of the game that can't be overstated how teams get tired you know and how as a defense when you're on the field for I bet if you looked at time of possession last year the Jets time of possession was was awful they had to have been right they had to have been yeah there's no way they were they were good at time and possession let's see their time and possession last year ranked yeah 25th that's higher than I thought me too dude you wanted Seattle was was dead last but also I I I also think when you talk time of possession there's a difference between time of possession when you're a runand gun offense that can go up by a ton of points early and a team that's just constantly never putting points on the board for sure there's definitely some Nuance to time of possession the kind of offense I think should be factored in in some way but that's very hard to do yeah and I'm not saying again I'm just saying I think the Jets defense will be a lot fresher game by game as they were last year they definitely should be you want to break that longer drives yeah exactly uh hey before we build a lineup two questions for you one are there any cheap options for New York that we didn't mention yet I don't think so I'm not getting the Rucker or anything really behind Conlin I don't think Bray and Allen is anything but a handcuff to Bree hall right now maybe you could throw like a dart on him in the biggest of fields but that's about it yeah I don't want to do it I bet I had a pretty sizable play on on Blake Korum under rushing yards yesterday and he never even saw the field and I I think you know I think people with I was wondering if if certain books weren't going to pay it out honestly I don't know if he he right he was active but I wasn't sure they were going to try and sneak in like oh he has to have a SN but um I mean most people do most do have that stipulation did he have a snap what did he have a snap I don't know I never saw him and Ronnie Rivers got out there I don't know but I guess what I'm getting at Matt is when you look at these rookie running backs that aren't you know that aren't the beon Robinson's and the Barkleys and The Elliots drafted really early the Bree Halls it sometimes takes some time and like you saw you saw Trey Benson under hit on rushing yards you saw Ray Davis his under hit on rushing yards Blake km never even got on the field just to name three yesterday so uh I have some I have some reservations with brayan Allen I have actually no interest there and I actually think he's overpriced I think he should be minimum salary yeah I I would agree I think he's overpriced too all right let's break down the skill players for San Francisco I don't think that we have to say a ton about mcaffrey right like he's he's always going to be one of of the best plays one of the best Captain plays flexx plays play him wherever you want if you have anything to add there feel free to do so but I want to get into the weeds a little bit with the other guys on San Francisco yeah we absolutely should if there's any analysis I have on mcaffrey right now it's that at our projected ownership this suggests to me that people are getting too cute and they should be playing more mcaffrey right now it looks like he has a chance to go potentially a little bit under owned compared to where he's being projected from a fantasy point perspective so it's Lamar Jackson situation don't fade him where do you want to play him is the question right and I don't think it's imperative that you play M Captain but I will say he is currently and I'll run these again my highest exposed Captain right now what about you when you ran it same Yeah by a by a wide margin got 35% second was Garrett Wilson just shy at 12 okay uh I got 39% second was Bree Hall at 10% Jordan what do Hall is third okay what do we have at Captain you don't even need to filter bu it anymore we just have we have those up there so you're not in are you on exposure yeah you are mcaffrey at 33 Okay and then Debo at what is that 12 or something Garrett Wilson at 10 okay yeah Bree Hall so pretty similar talk to me about the rest of this San Francisco 49ers team this is going to be the ownership game for me as well if we start to see all of the ownership creep towards mcaffrey Bree and Garrett Wilson that's where I'm going to start having more interest in Debo Samuel and auk both their target Shares are also pretty good the offense flows a little bit more through mcaffrey so even with that said more mes to he makes it a little more volatile but these are two Elite receivers with Elite upside I want to get pieces of them and I'm just going to play the ownership game as soon as these guys start creeping lower and lower that's where I'll start to play more of them in this offense would expect a big ceiling from at least one usually the problem is figuring out who that's going to be and I don't have a good read on that usually don't week to week I don't either I typically side with d regardless of like any sort of matchup Debo just has more ways to win and get to a ceiling than iuk so I typically would prefer Debo but again auk is an elite player he's just used more conventionally Debo they use him in so many ways there are definitely more outs with Debo for sure for sure but at the same time yeah auk is damn good and you also have George KD you were talking about KD earlier that what's so tough about him is so the volume with with George KD is so unpredictable he could have two Targets today and you wouldn't be surprised he could have nine and you wouldn't be surprised do you think possibly though that this is the type of game how good are the Jets linebackers the Jets are definitely strong in their linebacking core you know like CJ Mosley Quincy Williams it's a pretty good group I don't know if you would consider them like Elite but I think they're pretty good not as good as the 49ers but right do you think this is possibly a spot where they look to get KD the ball more or maybe a spot where they look to get Debo the ball more on um you know these unique type of plays they draw up where you know you're kind of mitigating the stickiness of those Corners in s Garner and DJ Reed to be honest with you I'm a little worried about KD having to pass block at times yeah defensive line actually is going to get pressure and I I think again the best part of the Jets pass rush comes from the interior so maybe this is a non-point but KD is a very good pass blocker and we see this in certain matchups it's at least a concern whereas you know Debo and iuk are not pass blocking sometimes KD does so that's at least a concern for me yeah it's a good point the thing about KD is that he could have three fantasy points or third like any given week yep that's how his box scores go yep and I'm okay with that like I'm I'm truly I'm always I'm not gonna sit here and act like I never want to get to George KD in Showdown sites I am always more than willing to get to George KD because you're always GNA get him cheaper than Debo and cheaper than auk so while I don't disagree with you at all that they may keep him into block he's also just such a like he's an enigma you don't know what you're getting from KD ever and that to me is worth getting to so I like all of these guys I think it's still be Debo first then then KD and iuk because I'll take the savings but they're all fantastic I I do probably like k a little bit more than you do given the volatility I want to embrace that but man once you get down lower Joan Jennings isn't Dirt Cheap is there is there anybody even worthwhile down here for the 49ers I don't think so I'm with you on KD usually my favorite time to play him is after he's rattled off two3 yard games in a row and his price drops to 6.4k and everyone's scared that he's never going to produce again knowing full well that he's had a full career of these kind of stretches and then he goes off for a 30-point game he's at 7.4 today which is a little expensive for my liking I'd rather just find the salary to get to auk orbo for the security and then wait till KD has a 6.4 price tag at some point this year as far as the depths of this team I mean there's almost no one in play like I would I'm probably just going to cut it off at the kickers maybe a sprinkling of Jawan Jennings but this team runs 11 personnel at one of the lowest rates in the league and it's not just double tight end they have yuse Che who's not really usable for DFS this isn't the Super Bowl so you can't really play him and that's your favorite Super Bowl bet dude for whatever reason Shanahan has some sort of involvement for Kyle EJ guy is like two touches all season long and then in the Super Bowl he is like four yeah it's the weirdest thing but yeah that hurts Jennings too that's right yeah I I'd rather Target the cheap options from the Jets over the 49ers today I think honestly the my favorite cheap option for the Niners is Jordan Mason and I don't feel good about it oh I I don't I don't hate it I just think back to the early Eli Mitchell days when they would spell Christian mcaffrey a little more often especially early in the season could that happen with Jordan Mason I think you might be I think you might be on to something and you know Christian McCaffrey while he's while they're saying he's all systems go he was dealing with an injury you know he was a little banged up and and yes to your point early in the season there are going to be some times where Christian mcaffrey might get spelled a little bit now if I remember correctly wasn't it wasn't it last year in week one where where uh Shanahan was like yeah I need to get Mitchell more involved because I don't think he saw like a single touch in week one no he did it was it was uh against Minnesota it was one of those games where he just got nothing and for some reason Shanahan was was intent on getting him more work but uh yeah in weeks one and oh yeah it was week two week two he didn't wasn't even out there uh but yeah week one he had five carries and a Target I'll put it to you this way there's nothing that excites me about Jordan Mason but if it was between him and um if it were between him I'd probably go there over Allen over I think there's I think there's more chance for opportunity aside from injuries and whatnot just like Standalone opportunity I think of the backup running backs he's the best option I'm with you Michael what's up brother shout out for you thank you for the Super Chat he said with no Piel I'm doing a dart throw at cow what do you think about that I don't know if he's going to be active I would look closely because I think they're probably going to have Conley active and then I've been kind of debating if they're going to have Ronnie Bell or cow out there and I don't know I surely don't know one of them I think is inactive today but Conley gives you a little bit on special teams last year Ronnie Bell was actually optimal in a showdown slate when he scored was that on a slate where Conley was hurt because Conley was in in and out of the lineup a little bit I believe it was and I also I forget who else was hurt I know this much it was against the New York Giants and they yep and they smoked them it was against the Giants I'm actually looking at it right now two for 24 and a touchdown but I like these backup receivers I like Ronnie Bell and I like cing they're so difficult to figure out though I just don't know who's gonna be active me neither okay so we find out an hour and a half before kickoff that Ronnie Bell is active or that he isn't and coing is active they're both minimum salary would you be willing to sprinkle on one it's a mil maker pass yeah yeah and you're hoping really for like one 15 yard ception that goes for a touchdown there's no volume there at all to no no volume to speak of it's kind of like Jawan Jennings like this team is going to run 11 personnel and one of the lowest rates in the league and iuk and dbo aren't coming off the field so like that hurts Jennings and now like are we pulling Jennings off the field for one of these guys I'm not I'm not sure yeah all right you want to build a lineup here yeah let's do it so I'm thinking you love Bree Hall I love Bree Hall do we just kick it off with Bree Hall captain no problem with that love Bree Hall let's do it Bree Hall at Captain by the way we're using the single lineup Sim we're having a lot of fun with this tool $1 by the way last last time this promo is active $1 for everything every tool we have tonight for NFL massive massive prize pulls as well and our Showdown tools have absolutely rushed so if you want in Link in the description and in the chat Bree Hall Captain gives us under just under sevenk remaining per player uh you know what Matt I'm just gonna try I'm gonna see what happens if we throw mcaffrey in there we're gonna experiment here I think you have to do that so I have no issues with that whatsoever that significantly brings down our salary so I'll take what I think is the cheapest secure player and Tyler Conlin okay I like that uh Jets D Jets defense okay 3,200 wow we still have nearly 88,200 left per player yep if we throw in G Wilson we're going to be in no man's land aren't we we're going to be backup QB range that's the worst dreed backup QB range ah okay that's exactly where we land unless we wanted to go well I mean you could just leave salary and go Moody and Greg the leg or 49ers D or something like that which I don't think is insane but would you prefer that or would you prefer like auk and Mike Williams George KD type oh probably that but then we don't have any backs so like if so wait are you saying by the way I just simmed it with Jake moody in there and Garrett Wilson 37% simed Roi oh let's not change it then well I'm getting too cute and out thinking myself it's not bad let me do it in large field I did it in a small field let's see what happens if it is it better or worse in a large field let's see it comes out at let's see better or worse 9.7 so this appears to be more of a better small field lineup yeah I guess that makes sense it's like the three highest projected players so yeah probably the three highest own it has the chalk value piece I don't we did the Jets and a kicker though so that's a little surprising still I thought so too I guess not you want to try it the way you said so if it's if we have two left what were you thinking uh was like iuk and then you could either do KD or Mike Williams let's go how are we projecting Mike Williams not great at that price at all like he seems he's probably really negatively leveraged isn't he yes he is but KD's not no he's not let's try it I have a feeling the other one's going to be better I have a feeling too after you said that I wouldn't have thought so at first but I do think you're right no -6 one for The Sims zero for Matt intuition let's let's try one more and then we'll get out of here for the morning and appreciate you guys hanging out tap that thumbs up if you haven't done so yet oh we're almost at 250 all right all right almost at 250 I didn't think we'd get there good [ __ ] thanks guys Jordan are you in large field or small field what do you what do you have all right do large field 10% to First and Matt now we're going to build one more so we're this is going to be like single entry style large field single entry style where they pay out 10% to first uh you go Captain here okay so we got a little bit of a flatter payout I'll do gett Wilson love that I almost want to throw Rogers in and see what happens if we try a build like this I think we absolutely can let's try it let's go Rogers here the thing is you're going to leave out somebody you like it's just what happens on these Showdown sites with so many studs I'm goingon to throw mcaffry and just hard to get away from him really at any yeah level I was gonna say that this this build you could just see it leading to a Bree Hall fade at this point that's pretty much where we're the direction we're heading in you know yes all right give me I'm gonna go I'm gonna go Jake Moody here I think Jake Moody is a nice play today I like Jake Moody a lot that puts us just shy of 5K for two remaining players can we punt something that'll get us where we want to go I don't I think we're going to end up in no man's land if we go Conlin I agree let's go Lazard okay can that get us to KD yeah yes okay let's see this is gonna be bad but I love it that's that's the problem here I like this better than the last one 24% 23.9 that's not so bad not terrible no I mean we could definitely we definitely get some better ones but okay we're two of three we're two of three on on positive simed Roi for this one let's go hey follow Matt mattor gajeski if you're not doing so yet over on X follow me at lafiore d uh Einstein we'll we'll close on this because Einsteinium asked some good questions Matt one earlier he was saying like what do you think could be kind of a a game script that plays out that that isn't what we expected and he said now what if a greasy game script what would a greasy game script look like if we build it out Laie for me and then I want Matt's thoughts for me it's defenses kickers and I'm not saying everything together and all of the skill players still just not the quarterbacks as much like I could because I could still see optimal games from a mcaffrey because of how involved from a Bree Hall from the volume Garrett Wilson uh but I could see the quarterbacks because they're not mobile not getting there this is a really hard question to answer because I think the Avenues of least resistance for both offenses come through the air if I was to poah Hole in both defenses it would be the secondary for each team but the two running backs are going to be extremely owned due to their workloads so you have these two sort of diverging ideas and I'm not sure what to do with them I think I'm largely going to just use ownership as my tiebreakers if the field is overconfident that one thing happens versus the other then I probably will just divert myself but to answer his question is like a greasy game almost like a a shootout between both passing offenses with the QBs and the receivers just because we're expecting so much from the Caffrey and Breeze I don't know like maybe maybe the greasiness is just like we don't expect yeah it's very possible it's a tough question to answer yeah when there's so much talent on both sides of the ball exactly yeah for both teams all four sides of the game both defense both offense it's it's it's a tough game it's gon to be a great game though I'm very much looking forward to it we'll close out the week with this live before a lock Greg arenburg and myself tonight if you're still playing baseball MLB live before lock uh and before that and as always like I said1 for everything tonight down there in the description and Jordan can throw it in chat one more time rock that Avatar baby stochastic docomo get paid we'll see you back here for the next one peace