NASCAR DFS Picks and Strategy | DARLINGTON RACEWAY | 9/1 - NASCAR Preview

[Music] [Music] [Music] welcome one welcome all and we have a fun slate ahead of us here we are at Darlington today and as always I am joined by statal stats here today and this is actually going to be our last NASCAR show of 2024 most likely uh as you guys know NFL is back the NFL is here Thursday the Chiefs Ravens and don't forget if you thought oh we just get a Thursday Night Football game not this year we get a Friday night football game with the Eagles and Packers too so literally the NFL keeps adding on slapes uh for for Showdown stuff and it's nice and we'll have all the content up for that stats but that a lot of content here on the site too I can't wait to see those uh uh stacking charts too that'll be a big thing that I love to use especially for like the melee maker and uh even like the play action and stuff like that to where uh it's one of my favorite things especially with the $5 entry point for the Millie maker this week stats like those stacking charts where you know a team has an imply total of 27 like can you just kind of dive into what your stacking charts offer for NFL and how people can use that and all the other content on the site yeah so I kind of what I do is I'll give you the stack the QB plus one and then I also have uh a comeback so the top three comebacks maybe for the uh the opposing team and I give uh probabilities that they score the 60 points between the quarterback and their um their pass catching uh partner and then 90 points um for three if you want to take a comeback so it just gives a probability on that happening based on the projections and based on some uh obviously the correlation between the two so uh that's an interesting one yeah I mean you want to look at obviously some of the top Stacks I uh I throw in there what the you know the cost per uh for that stack as well and typically I mean the top 10 15 in that list are going to be the um the stack that scores the most points so typically you want to look in that range kind of look for maybe a stack that's not getting a lot of attention but shows up in there um yeah look the the last few years we've seen scoring in the NFL down I think scoring will be up this year and that would get us back to stacking being of the utmost importance we've had a few we had a couple of years here where stacking in the NFL has not been as important uh the comeback we haven't had a lot of quarterbacks that I think the quarterback play play has been down I think we see a bounce back here I think we see the totals start to go back up I mean we saw more games in the 30s than I have in as far as uh the total pre pregame totals um than I have in a long time and not that many in the 50s I think that's going to reverse I think we'll see early in the year we'll see something similar to last year and then the books will catch up just like I said on Friday's show with JBC we do a sports Benning show um I thought that the unders would be um in play here early for college football we had some really good unders yesterday so I do think Trend I saw and I I did not watch the show on Friday I've been really busy with wedding stuff but I noticed this trend and a lot of had to do with like the play clock like you know play with ended it was still five six seconds roll off and then all it was the Florida state Georgia gameer that or Georgia Tech game that was really emphasized and it's also led into some other games and I I like just for fun the other day I just slapped a whole bunch of unders and stuff scoring I was about to say it's like the exact opposite of college where like scoring feels down in college football you know obviously the first downs that Chang me last year where they don't no longer stop the clock after our first down and stuff um and obviously the two-minute warning now is like one of those additional things they do to stop the clock but it feels like the clock is always running into college football to me it's about time because it's the only I think it's the only college sport that I could think of that plays a longer game than the NFL does or than their their professional counterpart does um and you're talking about a sport where we're trying to cut down on injuries especially head injuries and extending the game out and making it a longer game with more plays just makes absolutely no sense you get the same bet now I get TV money they they love having a four and a half hour game there's nothing like watching that championship game go to two o'clock in the morning but but um you know it's I I've been saying it for years I think this is a much better uh much better with the the way that they do they're not stopping it on first downs until the end of the game uh stopping the clock the clock runs on the out of bounds just like it does in the NFL just it's just a much better game flows much better and you don't have to sit there for four plus hours to uh to watch the game but the the big change was the the uh coaches can now talk to the quarterback at the line so what's that what that's doing is it should help the offenses but it should also make for longer um longer times in between plays so that's why I was looking at the unders you're also going to you know if it helps the offenses you're probably G they're probably going to be able to get the quarterback looking in the right place maybe checking to a different play less interceptions and you would think you know interceptions for the defense good for unders but no like most interceptions or a lot of interceptions lead to easy points so you want to have a lot of turnovers when you're betting an under you want kind of the drives to be long and sustainable uh you don't want three and outs either because those are as good as a turn you kind of want the ball moving a little bit you know ideally the best thing in an over is move the ball to Midfield Punt and then uh and then rinse and repeat but um anyway you know that's a lot about on college but yeah we we went into it pretty uh in pretty much detail on uh on Friday so that is a premium show usually especially for the NFL season I know or it might have been no it's free show we were free on Friday I don't know if we're free every week but yeah yeah I don't know if it's free every week this is the type of content that I actually absolutely love you know whenever you talk and stuff like that I always love to listen especially like when it comes to these type of markets and uh I really like that you kind of solidified that edge maybe wish I listened on Friday maybe I could have gotten in on all those unders uh but this is the type of content you can come to expect week in and week out from you guys there you'll have a bunch of stuff up we also have The Showdown stuff The Showdown Playbook is getting completely revamped look uh it should be a great NFL season again code rps15 15% off the entire package at runer sports for all sports not not the NFL package so if you want sabersim if you just want you know the NFL only just on the run Pierce Sports based subscription rps5 will work if you want the sabersim one though there is no code attached for what it's worth uh so let's go ahead we'll talk about football you know all week next next week here over the next few days I guess we'll go ahead and move on to talking about NASCAR and the good thing about Darlington though we've already had a race here you know in the spring we had well Brad kasowski is where he got his win at you also had Josh Barry kind of getting into the top three there and I think it was even chase Brisco who had a high finish here as well uh this is a good slate though I really like the way it shapes up you and Tony you and Big T I should say already have your content up and we're going to start with the studs here we're going to do I'm going to throw in keslow here all right because I think he belongs in the stud range we're going to do the top five drivers kazlowski and up I was actually shocked to see you guys both on Larson uh and obviously you're on keslowski as well but can go over these top five guys in salary today yeah I mean I guess we could start with the the most expensive guy out there which is Denny Hamlin 11k on uh on DraftKings look I mean it's Denny uh he's got great history here at this track uh one thing you know we didn't get we didn't dive too much into the but it's an intermediate uh track we're 367 laps I believe um one thing about Darlington it's very chalky so what we've seen in the past not only is it chalky it it really favors guys starting up front um tough to pass you get up in the front you will lead a lot of laps you mentioned reick last year I believe he had the pole L 174 laps um so he was in on the winter not last year but in the uh in the spring uh so what when you're building lineups here you don't want to be too uh you don't want to be uh worried about playing too many guys up front and missing out on maybe some some play differential La if you take that Spring Race you had three guys uh I think the lowest uh starting position was sixth of of three of these guys so you had the reck in there last year you hadz in the fall I should say or spring keslowski and I'm trying to remember who the other one was um I'm forgetting right now but you had three guys who started like uh two four and six or something like that or one four- six you had guys up in the front and then that was coupled with in the winning lineup three guys who I believe all started uh in the 30s and they were the cheaper guys so T typically the drivers starting up front the really topnotch drivers especially Who start up front tend to lead a lot of laps here and win so don't be afraid of taking guys up front so that's kind of the lesson here now with that said you've got Denny starts 14th and I think that's really you know typically maybe we'd say well you're getting Denny he had one of the better cars in h practice uh he's been F fantastic and he's fantastic everywhere he's been great uh some really good track history uh good intermediate tracks uh this this season as well I think you're the comps here that you're looking at are um that are that are the closest is going to be Vegas Texas and Kansas and um so his history in those tracks has obviously been really really good but I think the one if you if we're looking to maybe for a reason to fade Denny I would say because starting 14th I I'm not as confident in him dominating as maybe I am and some of these other guys who are going to be starting closer to the lead also he doesn't get that preferred pit stall and we've seen Denny kind of get into some trouble having some uh some idiots around him in the pits and getting frustrated that very well could happen here today so the pit um the pit stalls and and getting the preferred pit stalls this week is going to be uh key so there are some reasons that you can fade um Denny but I think Larson here starting fourth has a really good shot at dominating uh again it's it's Larsson pretty much good everywhere um he's got a win at Kansas has a win in Vegas uh a couple of wins here in Vegas in in recent uh times now in the the uh the spring race not too good wound up wrecking out of that race but first last year um in this exact race uh a year ago so I I think Larson I actually like Larson in the betting markets I don't typically bet favorites um in NASCAR I you know in a lot of these Futures golf NASCAR I try to look for a reason to bet against the favorite but you're getting a decent price here plus 575 I think lson very very much live uh to win this and a lot of the the next guy Le uh reck is a guy I've seen a lot of people taking um this week as far as in the um in the betting markets I think reck's gonna be very popular pick he had the fastest car here in the spring um like I said he led about 174 laps here in the spring to get him into the winning lineup and I think he's going to have an extremely fast car again I I mean I do think reick obviously has a shot to win the race didn't really love the odds on him which is why I didn't make a uh a bet in the Futures Market on reic but I think he's very much live here starting six starts close enough up to the front he's one of my favorites to get a lot of Dom points as he did in the uh the spring race so I think uh we may be looking at him being the highest known guy here on the Slate and I think probably for good reason but because of that again I think you can if he's in the 40s I think if you want to get under and be in the if you're playing 150 lineups like I am you want to get in that 35% range I'm cool with that as well because I think we've just got a lot of talent here close to the top that I don't see one guy necessarily guaranteed to uh dominate this so if you want to kind of take the tact of I'll fade the guy who's going to be the highest own um and maybe bump up those guys who are uh near the top who are going to be lesser owned um that might be a good strategy and then talk about a guy who's near the top here starting eth Byron who is not getting any love at all I think it's going to be extremely low owned who I like quite a bit um I I just think for the ownership I I don't know I don't have my saber up or you have it up there so what's it what's the ownership on 17 yeah 17's I think that's probably accurate too I mean what was it two weeks ago he was also unowned despite being a very similar spots like certain nins or whatever yeah I think I think he starts close enough up to the front I think he's got enough uh speed here to and it's a great track uh for Byam he's done well here in the past kind of look at his uh his recent um history I mean he has a first place last year in the the spring race here uh but he's done no worse than eighth in his last four trips to this track done e he's been excellent at intermediate tracks uh I just think that ownership is going to be too low so I I like you know if you want to kind of bump up a Byron and bring down atic a little bit I like that move and kind of even those guys out a bit I think you're G to get some good I think that's a good pivot and uh and good leverage play kazlowski obviously won here last time he's gonna get a lot of love uh for that um practice times were okay he was kind of mid in practice so that's one knock against them just speaking with uh just going back to practice I I want to look at in practice more of these guys we want these guys to kind of be able to sustain and not fall off all that much um in practice so more so than the speed I was looking for guys to um were able to sustain it or at least get better um on the on the longer uh practice laps when they get up to that 20 practice laps or so and were they able to sustain it guy like Byron was I mean he Byron was probably the best in practice Hamlin was really good in practice uh keslowski not as much so um if you want to take a knock here on Brad I think he'll probably get a little bit more ownership the fact that he won here last time um but I could see getting uh under the market on a kazlowski he's probably going to be in that uh you know 25% I think Sabers got him here at 23 I think that's about right yeah it's interesting too like as you just said you know being able to sustain time is going to be important here being able to kind of make your tires stay the length of you know wherever you want them to go it is a tire wear race you know tire wear race uh and that is Denny's wheelhouse so I was going to say I think it's really easy to get two of these studs in the lineup today a lot of that has to do with the fact that I think the value we have is pretty solid I think the mid-range that we have is very solid like I do not mind going two of these guys and a lot of that has to do with the fact that really outside of Chase Elliott or maybe Joey loano who and they're okay and stuff I don't really feel like I need to have them like Chastain's fine right but there's a chance that he's not getting a top 10 even though they're great plays I just feel like maybe if I just stack the top go better at the mid-range and try and get these you know Dom points especially with a guy like Barson we I didn't even mentioned Bubba who you're going to have starting first at 7700 you're gonna have Denny Hamil starting from 14th I think it's Lon and then Hamlin for me and the biggest reason is that I I just can't ignore the fact that it's a tire wear race right you want Denny at these type of tracks 14th just feels like gravy and I think for single entry and stuff I think Den Denny's the guy and I do I do not think the 22% is right I think he he's gonna go North to 30 especially in single entries and stuff um I think he's one of the better plays in that regard because if you're doing large field though maybe Danny's a lesser play because look there's probably going to be multiple dominators today you know probably going to be guys who lead a lot of lab Lon I hope he he leads them all the way I'm going to be playing him too and stuff but if you're looking to kind of you know hit the home run you know hit on The Sweet Spot there I do think bringing in guys like Byron uh you know being able to be competitive like that to where he looked really good two weeks ago I kind of forget where we were at what it was that long uh intermediate track I think um oh man what was it hold on I'll remember go ahead I I'll like that was thing too I I remember two weeks ago and like Byron like single-handedly guided me to a cash uh that was one that we also had some late drama in it was the Michigan International Speedway one yeah that's one it was was Mich and I remember like him getting second there which is good enough and I do think that possibility of you know if you want to Stack you know Hendrick Motorsports a little bit you can do it with Larson and Byron just Bank on them being faster than anyone else at that point maybe you even be high on Chase Elliott 9k is not too high of a tag too so I don't mind those and for me it's Larson Hamlin then Byron and then I'm low on keslowski for this one uh sounds like you were kind of low on him too and then Tyler Ric because you know I'm just trying to can't play everyone to me lson head and shoulders Hamlin head and shoulders and then it's Byron in that next tier and then I think I'll probably be Fad in kazas getting ready today uh let's go and get into the rest of this 9k range here it's got TR X who's very good on these type of tracks uh tire wear tire wear wise uh my thing with Trux though is I'm just I just got to quit Trux stats like I just got to what's going on with him every time he's in a good position to end the race it just feels like he just bends it some runs out of gas somehow there has not been a race where it's just gone to plan for Trux the entire time yet this season uh and starting fifth this is like the one time too where I don't think he's gonna be 25 I think he's gonna be a little lower than that uh I know people are going to see the history here but I think there's a mental fatigue with Truex where he's been chalked for many many many weeks and he just hasn't come through really much at all uh with Truex though are you going to have a lot of interest in him are you GNA have a lot of interest in general with Trux you know Belle obviously you know then you Elliott too to finish off this 9k range any of these three guys that you're hiring I mean you you talk about TRX obviously I mean as of late it's you know the way it's been it's real tough to play him but he's also been really bad here in the nextg I mean look at him in the last you know since 22 um 18th was his best finish year so it's gonna be tough for me to get uh to get too much tra I you know again if you're playing um a small amount of lineups here I just don't see the advantage in getting a true xfit there's just too many guys starting up front that I think he's gonna have he's going to struggle with um so there there's just better plays for me uh Belle's you know Bell's another guy that's not GNA get a whole lot of um a whole lot of of attention in the DFS markets he struggled at Darlington um recently he probably you know he's he'll probably have a decent finish here but I I don't see the dominating uh starting ninth I'm going to want someone who's going to be able to get up front dominate a bunch of laps and then get a strong top three typee of finish just don't see that happening um with Bell now Elliott different story we're getting at 9k we're getting him starting 20th I think he'll have just I don't think he's gonna have a ton of ownership but just uh a bit more than those first two guys in this 9k range and um you know I want to bring up his um his practice times yeah he so if you look at him in the practice like the in in the uh the shorter amount of laps not as great but then when you got got to the 15th and 20 lap practices it seemed like he was getting better um so I like that I I so I I'm pretty high on uh on Chase here I think that's a pretty good play at a fairly low ownership we get some decent uh Place differential there with uh with Chase so I like the uh I like the chase play um blay probably I mean a lot of people saying the you know the Fords look good and blay might have the best car in the entire field starting seventh uh I think Blay's got a really good shot here to get up to the lead get us some uh get us some Dom points uh we're looking at 32% what it says here on um on saber as far as ownership uh I think that's right about right I think 30 to 35% should be the ownership I think if you get over on blay I'm not upset with that um I think Blay's got a real shot here to win the race or I didn't take him in the betting markets just I thought the price was a little short um and but he is getting bet pretty uh you know he's up there as one of the favorites to win the race and at this price tag I think uh I think Blay's got to get a lot of consideration yeah I'm looking at that too because what bl's eighth one now right plus 800 on draftking sports book that surprised me a little bit and I just I just had a trouble kind of tracking that a little bit if I'm gonna be high on HMS if I'm gonna be high on Hamlin like what do I do with a guy like blay and that's been my debate uh I know I didn't mention him like talking about those dominators you in the next range and I think I just feel like I'm going to be a little underweight on blay a little bit here I just think that maybe kind of going for one of these guys just feels doe in the sense of like Kyle arson or I guy who's gonna try and get there late with Hamlin and to me I don't really get the best of both worlds if I was fading Hamlin I think I would have a much easier time playing Larson and blay together uh but I I don't want to go like all three of those guys because I think that Denny can have that late you know late stage upside and then you know Larson have the early stage after bubble uh so it just kind of becomes a numbers game at that point like I'm not going to be have a ton of blay at all uh but eight to one it's hard to ignore 8,800 stting seventh you know you talk about the buzz he's had I just think a little bit too much ownership on him I think I'm gon to be passing on him here probably go a little bit lower and uh you know look at the rest of the Slate too I mean just below him what you got a guy who's you know stting 16 spots further back doesn't offer the same Dom upside or anything but you also have a safe play and a guy like Lano what's your strategy with a guy like Lano and Chastain both starting in the 20s here you also got Chris busher who's been pretty fast too uh are these you know three guys here who I think are pretty solid Gibbs you can make the case for I'm kind of done with Gibbs right now uh let's go all just these eight 48k guys here what are your thoughts especially on legano and Chastain St in 20s yeah well I mean quick note I mean Gibbs was in the winter here um in in the spring so you got to give him some consideration starts 13th uh he's definitely playable U and he's gonna get some ownership for sure uh legano to legano is he was you know not really good in uh practice let me just kind of bring up his I mean he was one of the worst cars here in practice I think he'll get better um I mean he was in the 30s in early laps he he got down to like he was 21st in h the 20 lap in practice which not good at all uh I'm not real high on I do think he will get better he's a guy you know he'll he'll survive he'll be in you know he loano always finds his way kind of into the mix but um I'm not going to be as high on uh on Joey here even with the the start of uh at the thirdd spot where he will be starting busher I took in my bets um I think he's you know I think he's gonna be F I just thought the busher played for me on my bet was uh the number you could get him at plus 2500 I just thought that was too good of a price uh it's you know one of those I don't necessarily think he wins this race I do think he he gets himself uh close to a top five and you know if he's able to pull it out for us he pulls it out but I thought 2500 was just too uh too good a price to pass up on him I still think Larson probably takes the race um but yeah I'm going to have you know he's not going to be high owned and I think you probably want to get maybe uh over on a busher where do we have him here on uh I'm never looking at your screen yeah 12 points so I think we've got a few guys here in that in this like in the teens who I think we can get over on and um and are decent plays I think busher is one of them um and then Chast danain good place differential play um did not look all that great in practice um when we went like he started off really fast and then did was not able to sustain it in practice so again that's what I'm kind of looking for these guys who uh are not showing a lot of fallof Chastain did so I would say that's a little bit of a caution there uh for me on a guy like Chastain yeah I'm looking at Chastain too where it's just like he needs to get 10th I think I I think he needs to move up at least a dozen spots in his regard uh I want to look at the NASCAR play off the ho real quick and I I probably I probably share the screen on that uh but obviously Harrison Burton getting in uh last things up I cannot believe how bad That Shook things up it is did you see my bets did you see my bets last week I did not what was it so I had uh I had Kyle Bush oh no oh no cnri goodness I had three I can't I can't remember who the other one I had three of the top four or five drivers with like just a couple of lap like three or four laps to go and somehow Burton was able to beat them all so it was cnri got in the the wreck right the last Rec yeah so I had cnri Bush and I can't remember who the other one was who was right there as well and uh I'm like well Kyle Bush is never losing the haris at Burton and I cannot believe that happened that that race was actually really cool to see and stuff didn't we also have another car flip last week too like just we did yeah it was a couple of scary wrecks back to back two weeks in a row we had Michigan and then Daytona where a car flips and stuff too like where we didn't even talk about that like the uh it is crazy how safe it is that was Josh Barry what he went upside down into the wall there I remember seeing that I was like goodness the fact that the car was built to you know have him somehow get out of that car give a thumbs up and stuff despite being completely upside down slamming into a wall at 100 miles per hour stuff that that was the most scary wreck that I've seen of this year I mean you know we've had some very scary ones but that I think that's just a testament to the car and stuff but yeah like last week really shook things up now you have Bubba and Ros Chastain both on the outside looking in so Kyle Bush can kind of be thrown into there but Bush needs to win Bubba and Ross I mean was this the last week right this is it this is it Bubba has to win Ross has to win you cannot get by unless you're banking on Chris Bucher wrecking and that's it Chris buer would have to go out of this race for Ross Chastain or Bubba Wallace to move on without winning so knowing that does that put you higher or lower on guys like Bucher or Chastain I think that the busher one uh he just got to keep the car clean right like just keep it clean they they they if they win the race I me hats off to him at that point yeah yeah but as far as like Bubba Goes let's go and jump to him let's jump to Bubba and Chastain here starting first for Bubba do you think like he's got a chance to win this or is it just like this false hope of you know being on poll I his odds are pretty solid too I what are these odds here 12 to one for a guy at 7700 Dom upside you obviously want guys starting in the front you guys you want guys who can lead Labs what's your thoughts on bubba and if he does lose that lead are you just worried about him making some incredibly bold strategy decision here or what's the move there yeah yeah bold is bold's one word you could use for Bubba um you know Bubba could get a little a little a little hotheaded and um you know if things aren't going right who knows but I think we've got a lot of upside with Bubba today so I think he's going to to me he's the favorite to get out there and lead a bunch of laps early that's why I'm pretty high on him uh put him in my core actually because I really think um at this price especially I think we're gonna get a lot of laps LED can he win the race certainly but I think yes that's that's where you worry about Bubba here is if things don't go right if uh if he's got a for and he will try force it he's got to um so if he's in contention this thing could be it could be a win or wreck out um coming down the stretch but I think what's I think we're gonna get enough laps LED where I'm not as concerned here um for Bubba so I like Bubba in in DFS this week um I'm just looking at saber now they've got him up at 50 I think that's I don't know if he's gonna be 50 yeah I don't know if he's gonna be 50 I'm looking at more in the 30s 35 something like that I think that's kind of where he's going to be um but I do like Bubba quite a bit delete a bunch of laps um this week and so if he win I mean it'd be interesting yeah I'm hoping he I'm I'm I'm hoping he's in contention late because I think that'll make for a really uh fun interesting finish um I almost prefer him to like be running 10 at that point just and just start wrecking people on the way to the front just yeah pulling Austin Dylan or something like that I'm worried that like at the same time or if he's like second or some [ __ ] he's gonna try some egregious block or like just die bomb into a corner and just wreck the thing yeah well we need we need like him and it's got to be like him and Kyle bus yes up at the front late you know a couple of guys who really want to get in expect to be in the playoffs want to get in the playoffs and and are not afraid so that would be uh that would definitely be interesting but yeah speaking of I mean bush bush has decent speed here he's been great at Darlington um I think he's got a lot of upside starts 17th I don't mind Kyle bus again another guy at low ownership that I don't mind uh playing this week um you know Bowman is going to be a a really popular play had a good practice uh his qualifying sucked and that's why he's gon to be in uh in 27th starting position but I think it's another guy who's got a he's got a real good chance to get us that uh Place differential that we'll need to maybe pair up with some of these guys that are going to Dom who are starting up front and uh and Eric Jones in a in a similar spot he's a guy who's going to get a lot of ownership uh he's been great at Darlington but Legacy I'm not I don't I I'm just not think I don't think he's got the car I don't think he's got the equipment so I prefer if you're playing one of these guys I like Bowman um over Jones here and then when you get down to Brisco I just don't think he's playable um starting third I don't think he's going to be able to uh get out front and Dom and uh and then his finish position won't be anything close I don't think to the third so I I don't like uh any Brisco and I think Barry is kind of where Barry is starting 15th is kind of where we expect him to be maybe he gets up to a top 10 um but not too high on Barry and then gron a lot of people like gron this week I think probably because um he's been pretty good at Darlington I believe he was in the winter the last time out so I think he'll get uh a little bit uh bump in ownership because of that starts 29th uh fine play but I I think if you're um maybe gets maybe owned a little bit higher than he should be so if you want to get under on gra I'm not uh uh I'm not against it and I I don't think he's in the necessarily the best equipment either so um and and really at Darlington it's all about the uh the top drivers and top equipment so I could totally uh see getting underneath and underweight on a gron yeah it makes a lot of sense there and uh you know speaking of Bowman I think Bowman's one of my favorite mid- tier R plays Eric Jones not bad at all these are two guys who can just be kind of glue pieces where probably not going to win you this slate but they're definitely not going to lose you this slate I think like throwing him in single entries and stuff is probably my plan especially with Bowman I think 27th is a great starting position I need a 15th out of him here um he got what eighth here in the spring race too which is promising that was just purely on speed it wasn't like a lot of guys wrecked out if he went to the spring race well we only had three guys not finished the race that was Kyle Larson zanen Smith and Ryan blay so like he's got Pace here he's gonna be fine starting 27th one of my favorite plays um I also found this interesting stat just looking at you know player matchups on DK or driver matchups I should say Bubba is minus 175 versus Chastain Chastain's plus 130 against Bubba they're completely different plays like you're not playing them for the same reason you're playing Ross for the you know maybe move up 10 spots or whatever but that was still telling to me is like they really they really like Bubba's car you know on Sports books a little bit despite Ross Chastain only being like 25 to one Bubba being 12 to one like they really look like you know Bubba's got a much FAS car a much better chance of being in the winner than a guy like Chastain I just think that that's telling a lot like what is that like an implied like 59% chance 60% chance almost so I would definitely lean Bubba over a guy like Chastain I think Chastain's one of those plays where look you got the same plays down here B and or Jones or gragson even who's starting seven spots further back like you have the same plays as chastan where you don't probably don't need want to get too cute you know go down a little bit further down save your salary a little bit um the one thing again starting starting up at the front I I don't have it in front but like I'm looking back here I'll give you all the the winners who have not started in the top 10 um Larson 2023 started 18th Jones uh in 19 started 15th and uh I mean you got to go back like Carl Edwards in 2015 uh keslowski started 13th in uh 18 Jones started 15th in 22 but for the most part you've got almost every winner here has started um in the you've got I'll give it to you one two three four five six seven eight nine 10 11 of the last uh however 18 have started in the top uh not even eight no I'm sorry 11 of the last 15 have started in the top 10 so that'll just tell you that starting up front is Big so that's gonna give a boost there in that that prop there Bubba against jtine as well yeah no kidding that's actually a very int telling stat that almost makes me want to kind of jam two guys up there because I I was deba about I think you want a minimum two in the top 10 to be honest with you I think if you're especially if you're single entry uh two I would I would do a minimum two guys starting top 10 because you're gonna have to get two of these guys to get the uh uh you're gonna need at least two Doms which I think you put up on the uh yeah on on our on our content on the website I saw you put two to three Doms Doms which I totally agree with but you're most likely to get those Doms out of those top uh even top five spots yeah that was the thing too it was like I was looking at it with you know Denny Hamlin if I can consider him a Dom right like he doesn't have to Dom though that much like if he got if he got second place or something like that put up a few fast slaps you can probably get scor in 65 70s uh I guess 60 would probably be the top unless he L Labs uh it's not bad uh but if I don't consider him aam then yeah that brings in really unique lineups where I think not a lot of people are going to be jamming the top top because look at this mid-range that we have you also said like we talked about guys like Chastain like an Elliot like there's plenty of plays sprinkled in here there's also like value-wise there's an a ton of sexy plays down there like if you go below Stenhouse you're going to have a tough time finding a play who's just going to be great and you know one of those guys could be I'm not saying they can't but I think a lot of people are gonna kind of be shy away from that so I think I'm gonna do that I think I'm gonna add you know Bubba maybe into this main team just straight up because I know this is probably gonna be a popular question would you rather have Bubba or Eric Jones today yeah for me it's Bubba yeah I think I'm with you um what if he leads the entire first stage almost which is certainly a possibility get clean air like what you would almost have the waltz to Optimal at that point absolutely I think he gets you 100 laps lead here to start the race uh we're looking pretty good on bubba perfect uh did you say anything about Josh Barry because I I did want to bring it back to him because we got third here uh in the spring race 15th he is definitely a tournament play I don't think he's going to be 24% no I think he's going to be like 15 no he's 15 yeah absolutely 15% on I I mean it's definitely a tournament type of play um I just don't see I don't see him moving up all that much from where he starting um but yeah myund obviously he's going to be in my 150 bill but uh I don't have a ton of interest if I'm uh you know if I'm three man three maxing it 20 maxing it something like that perfect all right let's get into this gross range we spent a ton of time on the top guys there uh we're not going to spend that much time on these guys here I can tell you that the 6K range is like the last range where it's like you know what I like these guys but luckily we have stacked mid-range to where I can still get what I want I can still play three four guys from that mid-range and still get two studs because like we keep saying I I keep saying Denny Hamlin is too cheap at 11k alar is too cheap at 107 like those are just guys you'd expect to be like I feel like they were 1K more like last year and stuff where it kind of forced you into this range this year they're not forcing you into this 5K range much at all so honestly single entry-wise I am staying above this line if you can't see my mouse it is below Ricky St so I'm going Ricky stous and above for single entry and stuff like that uh let's go in though Todd Gillan starting 33rd you are on record already saying you support the guy who's GNA be there not the guy who's leaving uh so you like Gillan over mcdal I would assume you know despite certain two spots further back Daniel forz is an intriguing guy at you know starting 32nd got 24th here in the spring race doesn't have a ton of speed here but starting 32nd could be good enough SVG this is a tough track for him to take I'm worried about because I really like you know SVG is one of my favorite drivers that's actually one of my favorite reasons why I watch the xinity races especially the road courses can I trust him here starting 34th the answer is probably not Austin Dylan Crossing him off someone's gonna put him into a wall at some point hopefully today no I don't know hopefully he's okay uh and then Ricky Sten house starting 36 and then I also want your take on Carson Oar because this ownership at 22% is blatantly wrong I do not think 22% of people are clicking on a Carson far starting second yeah I mean hos I look ran an unbelievable qualifier to get the second spot but uh I mean it just starts too high for me what what did they have him at 20 22% yeah that's not happening he'll be close yeah that's probably about right I was gonna say kind of close to 10% um yeah I can't get too excited U for for hos ofer uh and I think cnri will start off with the the guy in this um here as far as price goes I think he starts too high for me so let's get to the guy who I kind of like here and that's Gillan I mean look at you look at him in the his last um his last last five times out on the intermediate tracks I mean the worst he's he's basically finished between 14th and 17th his last five trips so he's been a top 20 guy he's he's kind of been uh pretty reliable to get you into the top 20 may even get you a top 15 so I like the Gillan play more so than I like um than I like McDow and you mentioned as well kind of the guy who's going to be there I think is gonna get more attention and that's Gillan McDowell this is gonna be his last race here with front row um so you know decent play you want to mix him in uh but he does start two spots ahead of Gillan I just think Gillan is the stronger play and I would I would look that way for the extra hundred bucks um Suarez starts 32nd uh he struggled he has struggled at this track but with the 30 second starting spot I think he'll get some ownership I think you can sprinkle him in certainly he'll be in my my 150 mix um you know not one of my favorite plays but I think you have to uh you have to have some Suarez even in in the 20 Max builds maybe throw one in uh for Suarez maybe two SVG I love him as well but I love watching him on those road courses because it is a thing of beauty it's unbelievable to watch I think here at Darlington uh just not enough experience um I you know his skills as far as running up against the wall like uh these guys are going to want to do here and uh conserving the tires and long runs and and all that uh not sure he's ready yet for that so I'm not going to be very high I don't think the market will be either on SVG uh I think Austin Dylan kind of starting where you expect him to finish don't see him uh with all that much upside as far as uh that 16th starting spot I don't think he gets into the top 10 so I'm not too high there um we mentioned hoser and then the last guy is Stenhouse look Stenhouse he had the wreck in practice so I believe I don't know for sure is he starting is he running a second car yeah checking right now for you if he's going to back I would assume he is with that wreck that they had yesterday um but yeah I mean still a fine play at starting in the back 36 uh again for as far as gpps for me and um he might even be a cash game play at 6200 starting 36 but um what what do we have as ownership at they have no no way no that's wrong right yeah that's I think it's gonna be closer to 30 than it is five yeah he should be he should have some decent ownership here uh I don't primary car repaired the primary car they did okay so probably even better then uh yeah stous starting 36 I think um yeah certainly he's going to be a lot higher than saber hasm um you're going to want to get him in in some lineups with that starting spot for sure it's especially I think he's probably the best option um at the pr I think once you get sub 6K it gets a little bit dicey he's probably the cheapest most solid option on the board uh I think Sten housee this week so yes I'm with you on Stenhouse I think he's like the last like decent play who you can just kind of manage and be like you know I'm fine with Stenhouse no matter what like he can crash and I'm still like not dead it looks like they mixed up Stenhouse and uh hoster's ownership you know that would make a lot more sense I think because uh there's no way Stenhouse is not going to be chalk he's going to be pretty IOD I think because look at this range below him all right I'm just going to save us time all right do you like anyone in this range specifically let's talk about a 20 Max because I think for 150 Max right you can definitely sprinkle these guys in there's definitely a chance that one of them hits and a guy like uh you know just for example because I always say every single show a guy like Justin Haley what if he ran an alternate strategy and got like 15th or whatever and he got ninth here in the spring race so like that is not out of the question it's not out of the question for some of these guys however only like two of them are starting in the 30s well I guess three if you count priest uh stting 30th like none of these guys have good starting spots and it's going to keep the ownership really low I think a lot of people are going to gravitate to the same type of builds too where they're just gonna kind of avoid this range and I think it's for good reason but is your favorite guy Haley from here just because of that Spring Race result what we've seen him do being able to kind of get top 15s and stuff and that would definitely be enough uh for here anyone else you think could have a chance yeah I agree with where you're going there with h I think Hal's the best option in the 5K range um even I I think Rick wear has shown some Pace as well so I think he has the ability um and and the the chance here to move up you don't love the starting spot 21st that's where the ownership is going to uh be depressed on on haly and I think the other guy is probably uh Ryan priest down here starting um 30th 5600 I think you got some upside there as far as play differential um you know these other guys I think you know if you're going all the way down to like a growa hill I mean you're basically just hoping for a lot of Carnage in this race to move them up um hemor starts too high for me at 25th um you know Zane Smith decent option at uh you know with 26 starting spot a 54 I I still like those other guys more I I think these are all just kind of sprinkle them in your 150 builds and if you want to kind of take a shot um on one of these guys in let's say 20 Maxes three max for me it's gonna be haly then it's going to be uh priest it'll be those two guys I'm kind of I would I would not touch uh Burton lejoy I think again starts 19th just starting too high just don't don't see the upside there so I think PRI and Hy potentially you've uh can get them find themselves in the mix maybe a Zayn Smith and uh the other guys you're just hoping for um the the other guys as far as like lejo I wouldn't even touch Burton I wouldn't touch and then if you're G to go all the way down growland hill you're just hoping for some sort of Chaos in the race um you could you could leave those guys out as well yeah I'm with you there um probably don't need to spend too much more time on those guys there uh I did get a text from a friend who also had a take on the Eric Jones stuff he said f we cannot ignore Eric Jones's track history here so I want I'm really P hard that's the thing I think everyone everyone's looking at it track at his track history here but I don't think they've got the car this week um to really to be able to do it but yeah I think I think that's why he's gonna be more owned than he should be is because of the really good track history yeah and that's what I'm wondering too and like I'm just gonna go Ahad and tell you the 2v2 I know which side you're GNA be on but that way people can kind of understand it's Gillan and Bubba or it's Jones and Gregson and right one's safer than the other right you know one's got Bubba and stuff I I kind of want to go to the Bubba one because think it offers more upside I mean obviously it offers more upside but you know this is a track and here was the argument against him you know I always talk NASCAR this guy said Bubba is not built for this talking about the pressure on you have to win to get in something's gonna happen he's gonna tag the wall or something like that you know what that's a cool reason for me anyone can Fain any anyone for any reason stuff but if you're just dead set like he's definitely gonna choke this he's going to spash the wall that's enough conviction too this is the best part about the last race of the regular season uh but yeah it should be a good time ahead of us that's let's go ahead and get into our final drivers of the day remember under 20% owned if you're not familiar with this show please hit the like And subscribe just like my guy the viral videos has mentioned I appreciate that uh and I also want to say uh thank you all for being with us this season uh I know that it's not my primary sport so if you have seen me stutter or butcher some names or track history and stuff I apologize uh but we will get into NFL and stuff like that here next next week so it should be a lot of fun uh stats your driver of the day sub 20% here's your list they have a bunch of guys above 20% Mark um I think I might know who you're going though I I think it's Byron I that's what I thought yeah I think it's Byron here because I think he's got the potential to get out front he's got the speed to do it and if he does he's going to lead a lot of laps um so I mean at a track where I'm looking for Dom points I'm looking for a couple couple of the three guys uh starting up in the top 10 I'm trying to find that guy starting in the top 10 who's got the potential to get us a lot of Dom points at low ownership I think Byron's that guy all right I like it I'm with you there we Byron paid dirt two weeks ago and that was the sole reason why I was able to get over the Min Cash Line um despite having a pretty weak lineup because of Rex uh it was looking great it was looking like a shipper until the Rex hit but even Byron still standing there at the end uh he is going to be a hero once again uh stats I'm gonna have to defer to you here because I I to make this stand not because of you know he's him being a slam dunk play do you think Sten housee is going to clock and above 20 if not I will find someone else um yes okay so I will find someone else I want to make the reason for him real quick I don't think anyone below Stenhouse especially in single entry and three entry Maxes and stuff is going to be very very hard to find someone to outperform him and he's cheap enough to where it gets you any build you want Stenhouse could be my over 20% my under 20% here I think I'm going to do this with you you guys were high on him on the Playbook too uh just a little bit I'm honestly going to be joining y'all on busher a little bit um I just think he's going to be a very solid finisher you talked about how the Fords are looking decent uh Buster's odds are you know good enough to where you know he can probably Dom a little bit I know that they've had some good cars over the last couple months and uh I honestly think that he's got the most upside in this like you know sub 20% range because look when you get above 20% that's a lot of names up there you lose a lot of the drivers doing this today yeah but yes butcher feels like one of the guys who has the most upside you know I actually prefer him straight up over Christopher bell too so that'll be quite a bit of fun uh stats any parting words for the NASCAR season no I mean it's been great this is the first year doing this with you and uh enjoyed it I mean hopefully we could finish strong here with the I've had some bad luck like last week on the bets so hopefully we could hit uh hit one we hit one a couple of weeks ago hopefully we could hit one here today and we have not hit I have not won the 100 Grand all season and uh that's upsetting to me so I feel like that is long overdue it's been a while we'll try to get uh we'll try to get that one uh we did have a question from panta there I don't I don't know yeah kind of what's more profitable strategy um one high buy so I I assume he means like playing a high stakes game or playing a d a dozen cheaper tournaments it's I don't know if there's a more profitable set typically when you play the higher Stakes games you're going to be playing in a uh with less big so the house is taking less money on those so the cheaper tournaments are typically tougher uh the high Buy in I'm assuming is a tournament or a gpp type of I would I would say the question is more of if you had a 100 bucks would you do a $100 single entry team or would you do five you know single entries that like $12 or less one you know three entry Max and stuff like that yeah I like playing multiple um but I will say this play If You're Gonna Play a dozen entries in a cheaper tournament like don't play 150 Max with a dozen entries yes I would much prefer you play a three max um and then now you're on equal playing field with everyone else yeah so I prefer that or play a 20 Max a $5 20 Max you know whatever whatever the case is um and if more profitable is very difficult to say it's really going to be based on how you play I play 150 Max in almost every single Sport and that's been profitable for me some people are just really you know you got like uh third and long here just great cash game player everyone's got their Niche so I think you have to kind of figure out what what you're best at I think the sharper you are to be honest with you the less uh the the the lower amount of entries you can play in other words you really need to know whatever the sport is you need to know the players and you need to do actually more homework I think when you're playing a single entry than you necessarily do at 150 um when you play 150 it's more about lineup construction and and things like that in all sports when you get down to single entry you really need to research it you need to look um and understand and your construction is going to matter quite a bit as well but you really need to understand the players or drivers in this case involved so it's really G to be based on the individual that's what like you know my dad doesn't play a ton or anything like that but he'll ask me a question he'll be like entering the Millie maker and you're like dude why if you just enter a three entry back enter a single entry and it's like oh yeah you want to play on the same playing field as everyone else so that's a very much so getting in those things Hoover they changed this six months ago seven months ago uh so if you have been seeing more badges in your lobbies uh it's because they changed that that came out of the blue too like they i' been able to enter the $1 and stuff like that as of six months ago and um I like it like I don't mind doing 20 entry Max and stuff but I've not been able to play like outside of NFL but that rule went away it might still be on FanDuel like FanDuel I might have still have that rule but I know DraftKings uh actually amended that rule recently yeah um all right well I appreciate you guys again uh code RPS 155 % off your first payment here at run Pier Sports you can get it for All Sport package here at run Pier Sports here with the NFL coming up on Thursday we also got kickoff game on Friday too as well with the Packers and Eagles we will have content every single day of the week almost uh and it starts on Wednesday I think I think Wednesday is the first pod that we got and then Thursday we'll have a couple Showdown shows and then much more so appreciate you'all for watching and have a great rest of your day bye-bye