Ohio State Football: 14 Bold Predictions For The Buckeyes Vs. Akron

Welcome to the Buckeye Weekly Podcast hello everybody Welcome to the Buckeye weekly podcast I am Tony German here as always with Tom or Tom how's it going well Tony it's Thursday of an Ohio State game week and that can only mean one thing it's time for us to get extremely exasperated with each other we've been waiting 9 months for this it has taken so long so many long empty months filled with fun and family and travel and now finally Tony it gets down to what life is really all about bickering about bold predictions I can't wait now Tom you know this I'm gonna let the listeners know I'm gonna I I started my morning with a flat tire so I'm just I'm not asking for leniency I'm not asking for any quarter I'm just saying it's already been a day okay um but we are here for uh competition I just want I just want to have a good time but also I do I do want to win I have a feeling that I will win I'm not going to predict that it's just just a feeling I have Tom would uh and this is for bold predictions for the Bold Predictions for the Akron Game akan game correct yes this is bold predictions for the akan game and this is a little a little uncomfortable but I had Tony will make an excuse as to why I need to go easy on him this year as my first bold prediction so I don't know if that's you know I don't know if that's something since it's already happened it's too late and I can't submit that or confirmation is not a prediction that's that's too badway I'll let you go first all right well I have gone through and oh God gone dived deep into the historical record to to pull a bunch of different different things where to start I I have I know you're going to argue about a bunch of these so I I got have a couple extras just sitting in reserve how about this one Tony the Ohio Ohio State Defense Predictions State Defense outscores akan by four points or more so if the if the Ohio State Defense has say a pick six and akan kicks a field goal assuming heate makes the Pat and they get the seven points then seven to three Ohio State this would come come true so the Ohio State Defense will outscore akan and outscore akan by four points or more no I think they generally do that against MC teams anyway so I would say Tom I will give you five points because I don't want the seven to three thing you know it's got to be by more it's got to be by essentially a touchdown but it could be by five points but I don't I don't like the the seven to three you're just talking one score there like I need I need more than that it can be one score but it has to be um you know not no no field goal in there basically so I I what what if Kaden McDonald kicks a field goal does that count that that would count yes yes of course now um I will I like the defense outscoring akan we' I think we've done this before but whenever we've done it I believe uh it's always been by at least five points to okay well then I will I will gracious Tony I know you had a flat tire so I will graciously graciously allow you to take my already bold prediction and in increase the boldness even more Ohio State Defense scores akan by five points or more and just to be clear on a scoop and score on a pick six they're going to get seven points there they're not getting six we don't need jt2 mow to kick the extra point for this count just so we have defined our terms here I mean if you want to if you want to get this Petty already then it's going to be a long season just I'm just trying to avoid problems in the Future Tony just trying to make sure we're all on the same page starting the season out so we're all on the same page together and not set up to have an unnecessary disagreement later that's all yes all on the same page Tom's page I'll allow this one um you know defensive touchdowns defensive scores as we know are never guaranteed but I do always get annoyed at the fact that you're like you know I've got several because I know some of these aren't bold so I I've brought several and there's a level of boldness to each of my non-bold predictions before you respond Tom I want to go to the next uh my next one my first one and I will go with this one whenever we talk about tackles for loss or sacks we know it's it's rarely Tackles for Loss and Sacks Predictions going to it just it doesn't doesn't ever hit so here's one I don't think we've done before no more than one total tackle for loss for jt2 M and Jack Sawyer combined interesting this is this is sort of the flip side what we typically think of as bold predictions on this because taking the under you're taking the under here in a game where you would certainly assume we I I have not done a particularly Deep dive on akan just yet but my assumption is that aran's tackles probably do not stack up quite as well as the otic defensive ends do so I boy I hate this because this is this is one where I I feel like if we were going to set an over under for tackles for loss for those two guys combined what would the number be one and a half that's what I was thinking two so but you're going to take the over on that you're not going to take the under you're going to take the over on that and not the under but you know that I'm gonna allow this and this is I feel like you're you're using you're using your flat tire Grace here to a certain degree so I will allow it but I I don't love it but I think just the creativity displayed here to take sort of the flip side of what we would normally think of as the Bold prediction here here I think that's a uh I think that's good I I will allow I will allow that one thank you you all right let's see how about this the Ohio State Defense holds akan to negative yardage in one quarter of the game so akan in one quarter of the game will have not not no gain so this is not just a oh Ohio state had two long drives and akan had one three and out where they you know had three incomplete passes that would not count they have to have negative yardage in one quarter of the game and Tony we've already established that Ohio State's two premier defensive end pass rushers are going to have a relatively quiet day in terms of producing negative plays so really this might be even Bolder than I initially thought Tom I'm saying it's bold for those two guys to not have a big day and you're like that is bold and now you're like I think it's bold if they are in the back field disrupting things so I mean you're you're talking out of both sides of of your mouth there um here's I mean the thing with buy quarter stats is we ain't got them you know like by quarter by game they're very hard to come by I can't just go well let me check this out oh six times last year they gave up negative yardage that's actually not true at all in the final book that they put out they give you by quarter stats no I just me in a season total like right now for me to go and look at how many times did they do it last year so we're gonna allow this because it now barring any bad snap that loses 30 like be any bad snap that loses more than 15 yards I'll allow it with that exception barring one of those okay so I cannot tell you how excited I am for a 13 yard bad snap from akan to make this happen so yes so Ohio State Defense holds akan to negative yardage in one quarter of the game however if it only if that negative yardage is obtained only via a bad snap that results in a loss of is it 15 or more or more than 15 at least 15 yeah 15 or at least 15 yards then that would not count okay there we go I was worried we were going to get too pedantic too early here and people would really get just be exasperated by all this but no that's that's good that's a that is a good carve out that you came up with there I appreciate that I feel like it's a victory that you didn't make it a 17 yard loss frankly so thank you all right here's something Tom if I Quarterback Performance Predictions tell you will Howard has only ever done it once in his career do we agree it's bold uh how many times has he played for Ohio State before today here's here's what it is my my next onep pointer will Howard completes 80% of his passes against akan he's done it once in his career it has happened I believe twice in the last two seasons so like Kyle McCord did it once CJ stra did it once in 2022 so I'm gonna say uh this is this is my will Howard doing it once 80% completion per of his passes what do you say I think that's fair but I think we need to set a minimum because if he goes four for four or something like that okay that obviously would not be sufficient so minimum of of 10 attempts or minimum eight gonna say Tony what's the number come on what's the number minimum of 17 attempts 17 attempts is not an outrageous number even for a half of play right right um okay I mean that's you're you're hamstringing Me by our our Canon numbers so I will allow that but I think 17 is a lot because he may he may not play Beyond say one Series in the second half you you know and so you're telling me like over the course of a game that would equate to you know 32 passes or whatever they're not necessarily going to throw that many times that much in a game plus we don't know about Chip Kelly and how this offense is going to go I'm gonna allow this I'm just throwing this out there for future reference for other people who may be bogged down in a bold prediction show with you that they will have this understanding this information that we don't know exactly how pass happy this offense is going to go but um I'll go ahead and allow at least 17 pass attempts and if this does not happen if he if he's over 80% and does not have at least 17 pass attempts the next week I will get a point oh how about this he either had you can take your pick on which one of these you want he can be 80% or higher on 17 or more passes or he can be over 80% on 16 or more passes because 16 passes he could technically be exactly 85 no that would be no I like what you were saying Tom yeah okay yeah so over 80% on over 80% on 16 passes or more I will allow that one all right I'm not sure as I'm trying to do the math in my head if this would make any meaningful difference if there's a scenario where he's under 15 but over at 16 he could be exactly at 80 at 15 can he be is 13 for 16 is that right at is that above 80 yeah 13 for 16 would be because 12 of 15 is exactly 80% I like our math show 13 for 16 I like I like this math show that we're doing I will also say the the previous he his other previous high like he was last year I think he was like 15 of 17 in a game that was like 88% his next best number in his career was 70.8 so just to give you an idea that's why I went in the middle basically there so all right one point next up uh Tony I went back through every game I could possibly think of where this happened and as far as I can tell the last time this happened was 5 years years ago against the Miami RedHawks but Tony three different Ohio State quarterbacks not players quarterbacks throw a touchdown pass in a single game yeah I'm gonna not even going to argue with that one because it is so rare you got to go back to like I mean I think Tommy Hoying was in a game that that happened two decades ago but you know three decades ago gosh time you're old but yeah it's not something that happens certainly all the time rarely happens three quarterbacks throw at least two touchdown pass no one said two touchdowns no one said two touchdown sorry you used plural so I thought uh that was that was my mistake so at least one touchdown pass for three quarterbacks quarterbacks yes okay not players players quarterbacks not Australian punters because you have two there and that's way too many options all right okay I love that I like that one Tom speaking of the special Special Teams and Rushing Predictions teams Ohio state will miss a field goal in this game I'm really I'm I'm bringing out all bringing out all of the pessimistic bold predictions is this is this bold what was their field goal conversion rate in 2023 in 2023 it was pretty darn good it's been very good for a while now but I I'll give you that to you it was 16 of 20 so 80% and I will tell you how many games did he miss a field goal in you would say four let's see if we are correct on that one he missed one at Michigan right before halftime I remember that missed one against Missouri missed one against Michigan State and missed one against Penn State so he's he's missed field goals in two consecutive games and you'd like me to tell you that this is a bold prediction well you say two consecutive but I would say three of four so he's he's he's made all of his field goals in one of his last four games and I will remind you he made three in that game against Minnesota now he has never missed a field goal attempt in a non-conference regular season game I will tell you Tom he has attempted one in his career Jaden Fielding feel like my response to this is what else you got because I'm not I'm not overwhelmed by that and here's and here's the here's my part of my reservation here is not just just that that is I think probably actually some statistical noise that I'm not necessarily reading a ton into this is also a game where sometimes you see the backup kicker come in and kick a Pat or something like that we've seen the in in I don't remember if it was the Miami game or if it was the might have been the Miami game in 2019 I think there was a backup kicker who came in right as the weather was getting bad and missed a pat that ended their pa you know their their sevene streak of not missing a Pat and you know you get you're throwing Walk-Ons in the game and so you're even even if you want to take justy Jaden Fielding piece of this I think you're you're adding some addition additional pieces into this so yeah I I am going to respectfully decline your offer of that being a bold prediction okay um now I was thinking in my head how about just and this is not it but I'm thinking like How about if any placement kick hits a goalpost at all like there's a single dink that is how bold is that two points is that three points because you don't always see it but I mean you kind of like seeing it like is that a free pointer do like seeing it I don't have any real historical data on that obviously which means it feels very dangerous that you see it and you always remember it so it probably feels like it's more frequent than normal there's going to be a lot of placements on Saturday I think and I've already got my three-pointer but it's just let's let's set that one to the side and maybe that'll be your two-pointer we'll see if we'll see how oh no no my two-pointer my two-pointer is worth three um so I'll we'll have to come back and get me another one pointer I'll figure something out but here's one for you Tom each of trayon Henderson quinon Judkins and James people have a carry of at least yardage total of at least their jersey number I feel pretty good about one of those quinan Judkins is a one so there's that's you can give that one to me for my freebie uh trayan Henderson so James peoples is 20 and Tran Henderson is 32 we're paring this okay yeah I I like that because I think if you you said all three of them have a carry of at least 20 yards I'd say yes now Tran Henderson has to get to 32 quinch judging is kind of a freebat on average I guess that yeah kind of balances out so yeah I I'm gonna allow this one that's again you get some points for creativity here I like it so yeah we'll we'll we'll go with that one now I will say if at some point they have to do like a jersey swap for special teams purposes and James peoples is out there in a 48 this does not count I'm going with a 20 that is locked in all right that's that's fine I who's 20 on defense arll ree so if arll ree plays on offense and they have to change so I will I will allow that that particular situation as a as a side side uh exception so yes all right how about this one H okay okay I'm GNA give you two options I'm going to give you two options here okay one is the Buckeyes rush for exactly four touchdowns three touchdowns I don't get it five touchdowns they don't get it the Buckeyes rush for exactly four touchdowns or trayon Henderson and Quin Shan Judkins combin for at least four rushing touchdowns which of those do you feel is more bold I think the two running backs those two guys combining for four touchdowns is more bold so we'll go without yeah that's pretty bold I mean I I probably would agreed to a two-pointer on that one but you know it's too bad two points it is because I don't really have a two-pointer so that's fine that's tremendous I'm totally lying to you Tom I'm pulling the stallions I have at least four rushing touchdowns okay okay that's Tony doesn't remember whether he said it was worth two points or not so I'm gonna go with uh a different running back running back that you have Disrespected Running Back Predictions completely disrespected I believe and this is only one point time there's probably a two or three-pointer as all my onep pointers are James peoples will lead the team in rushing this weekend so that's an interesting one because in a normal week that would be at least a two-pointer this week you figure the first half is going to be divided between quinon Judkins and trevan Henderson and the second half you figure that James peoples is really going to be kind of carrying the mail for the vast majority of the second half they're also probably going to be running the ball more in the second half I feel like I need a little bit of a sweetener here he leads the team by at least 17 yards done seven yards you answer too quick gosh darn it leading well I I I was I was thinking through a different a bunch of different numbers 17 of course was front of mind and I thought he'll never agree to 17 and then and then you did so I'm glad we could I'm glad we could come to such a quick agreement there I also am glad all right go oh let's see do you want one on offense or do you want one on defense I've got a couple options here I think they're both G to be well let's hear both of them because I need one and I might take the uh the lesser of two evils there okay so the Analyzing Ohio State's Defensive Performance first one is I went back through the last three Mac non-conference Massacre games which is 2021 akan 2019 Miami and 2016 Bowling Green and on average in those games the Ohio State Defense allowed 2.8 six yards per play so against akan in 2021 they allowed 3.1 against Miami in 2019 they allowed 2.1 and against Bowling Green in 2016 they allowed 3.4 so 2.86 yards per play allowed on average I'm saying that the Ohio State Defense holds akan to 2.6 yards per play or lower on Saturday so better better than their average of their last three games by almost if we if we round by3 yards per play yeah and and the thing like these don't have to be super bold the fact that it's just barely lower than the average I'm going to allow it you know we're talking about uh as you said the last three Mac blowout opponents and you said 2.8 you're now saying I Think Bold is 2.6 and it's like everybody's screaming uh no but I'm like no no no it's been a long day we're going to allow this one but everybody knows everybody knows kind of like the not to just keep harping on about the counter stallion's documentary like everybody knows we've seen it we know what this is about so all right so then my last onep Bold Predictions for Tight Ends and Running Backs pointer that I have to come up with right now on the Fly because Tom thinks uh High let me give you let me give you the framework of what I was sort of workshopping I didn't end up deciding on but X number of running backs have at least some number of carries so it's four running backs have at least least seven carries I don't you know I don't know where to draw that line exactly because really it's you know the top three guys are going to get it and then it's really just a question of at what point does do they put in the fourth back at what point do they put in the fifth back and you're trying to find The Sweet Spot on really the number four guys number of carries and I was sort of settling in the 7ish range in terms of being bold but reasonable but I'm I'm I'm willing to if you want to do five guys will have X number of carries I will definitely entertain that as well no I don't want to do any of that because I've come up with something with my own brain Tom uh at least two tight ends score touchdowns oh okay done yeah that's a good one because it is the year of the tight end it is it is the year of the tight end never more now than ever before the year of the tight end for Ohio State two tight ends score touchdowns I like it a lot okay good two pointer time all right so that was your one point just to be clear so just to be clear he's saying his was worth one now it's time for my two pointer so we're clear on that if you're keeping score at home and why wouldn't you be all right so I've got several here oh Jeremiah Smith's Historic Touchdown Challenge we haven't had we haven't had a Jeremiah Smith one [Music] yet and we had sort of discussed the fact that it was going to be very difficult to have a Jeremiah Smith won mhm Tony what if I tell you that only 16 times in the history of Ohio State football according to the newly updated 2024 Ohio state record book 16 times in Ohio State play history a player has scored three touchdowns receiving in one college football game for two points Jeremiah Smith scores three receiving touchdowns in Saturday's Ohio State football game I'm gonna allow that one Tom I know we had talked about I think yesterday we talked about maybe we should just do like um a series of JJ Smith bold predictions and just kind of get those out of the way but we I like this from JJ Smith with three touchdown catches this week from quarterbacks no one said that I'm just trying to clarify um so the last one Marvin did it has done it several times of so 16 times it's been done not 16 people correct 16 times in Ohio State history so like Marvin no Brown had four Jackson Smith the jiga had three and I believe that's it just those three people it well I mean I can pull up the actual you go ahead and pull it up uh I'm gonna give you my the record is four just to be clear the record is four but guys 16 16 times it has happened three times no I I will allow this I'm I'm just wondering now like if I threw a number out how many times is he going to do that in his career and I say like you know like five and a half or something like that you probably just take the over on everything that you kind of thrw out there right now with him yeah I think well and I was looking at the the career records for receptions per game career the FI the record for most receptions per game in a career is David Boston at 5.2 you David Boston was not playing for a decent stretch of the Season he was you know in in garbage time in his freshman year so Jeremiah Smith as a you know day one starter is going to get a real head start on that so that was that was one that jumped out to me as I was looking through as oh boy that's that's uh you know the the Ralph wigam chuckling I'm in danger like that record right now that's that's how that record is feeling right now the before we move on yeah the record for Touchdown receptions in a game of four in one game Tony was set in what year and I will tell you Terry Glenn tied to this record in 1995 but what game what year was it set in initially was it like Billy Anders in like 1952 or something it was 1952 that is Inc an incredible PLL it is Bob Grimes grimy twin twin brother of Frank Grimes Bob Grimes against Washington State in 1952 breaking a record of three set by Alex vdova against Wisconsin in 1948 so furl Mangus furl Mangus and then no one after after 1948 and then the 1952 no one else had three touchdowns receptions in a game until Joey Galloway against Michigan State in 1993 so it has been a it has been a minute but I like that one that's that's no doubter for me my two-pointer we'll see what you think about it Tom Ohio State Ohio State's Shutout and Yardage Predictions State pitch is a shutout it's uh they they have won every other year essentially so we know never pick a shut out I'm doing it Tom I'm going for it so I'm gonna look up right now Bill Connelly's SP plus projection for this game and if the score if his projection is three points or more over 3.0 points I will allow this one for two points let me see if I can find it real quick he generally puts these out all right here it is let's see he has the projected score by SP plus Tony Ohio State 56 akan zero so I don't know what to tell you but Bill Connelly feels that predicting a shutout is extremely extremely unbold not even worth one point Tony let alone let alone too so would TR how do you feel how do I feel about it well Tony I think you should never predict a sh but listen I'm not I'm not the guy with the projection system all right and and I had not and I had not previously looked at that just just I'm not okay I wanted to wanted to have a sanity check there but then maybe I will also go the Jeremiah Smith route for two-pointer as I think of something off the top of my head um how about this Tom he um boy you really Jeremiah Smith pitches a shut out Tom um you want to you want to put a yardage total on that you want it how about this you want to go through the Ohio State single game receiving record book and go down to whatever the 16th most is in a single game and you can take that number as a as a yardage number well I was thinking you took the three touchdowns Maurice Claret rushed for 75 yards in his Ohio State Deb debut with three touchdowns so what if I take the 175 of the the Maurice Claret debut since you took the three touchdowns you know what I'm looking right now and where does that the number 15 it only goes to 15 in terms of pass reception yards per game that would be Kenyan Rambo with 181 against Ohio in 1999 so 175 is probably going to be extremely close to the 17th best single game receiving total in Ohio State history so yes I will I will allow see I'm not just being disagreeable if we have things that align I'm perfectly fine with having them having them align and there there's literally there's a way but I don't expect this to happen at all because I think he's playing starter reps like one half and one quarter so you're going to need like he's going to need to do this 150 of this in the first half basically and yeah he's going to have to probably score three touchdowns in the first half too yes that's so that's what makes it bold I guess he's going to play the same number of same number of snaps for both of us on this one so yes that's that is that is in fact how this is going to work all right then I guess I guess we're in it together them and Louise it let's do it what's your three-pointer so I'm gonna Special Teams and Final Bold Predictions give you a choice would you like one on defense or would you like one on special teams and I will remind you there is an Australian on special teams for Ohio State I mean it's got to be it's got to be special teams the defensive one or whichever one is the Special Teams one okay the Special Teams one I'm just going to just check this right now I believe this is correct oh this is always the best way to start a three-pointer I think this is right yeah no zero punts in a game The Last Time according to the Ohio State game notes from this week the last time Ohio state had zero punts in a game was against Nebraska in October of 2017 however Tony mean cruel Ryan day makes Ohio State fans wait another week before they see the crocodile punter the boom and onion Nick mcclardy zero punts for Ohio State this weekend hasn't happened since 2017 yeah and I'm just looking like they had one pun against Toledo in 2022 zero against Maryland in 20121 time just an FYI oh well then okay well then you know what I will I will show you look look that's right there right there zero punts in a game so I'm not making it up it is in this week's game notes we'll have to take that up with uh Jerry and Mike so all right I'm gonna allow it oh oh all right I thought I thought for sure you were gonna I I was good I will I will happily take it if it hasn't happened since 2021 it is still fairly bold but now that we've established that well you've established that you you just said it all right Tom so while you're giving um getting three points for something that happened last week I'm going to throw something out here that has happened just five times in probably the last history of Ohio State football and ties in with the show impeccably well for three points my bold prediction my boldest prediction 320 3 20 oh oh that's quite good I and and it's Canon adjacent enough that I feel I'm almost obligated to take it I would like to know the last time it happened if you said it has happened five times when are the five times they did it against I believe uh I was looking at this earlier Indiana in 2022 um and and then uh they don't do it often obviously but they did not do it at all last year because they didn't even hit 220 at all last year in rushing yards but um they did not do it in 2022 it was 2021 hey and as we know did they did they do it against akan in 2021 no um 2021 wait I'm looking I'm sorry looking at the Indiana okay so here's here's what I'm gonna here's what I'm gonna tell you yeah if as long as this did not happen in any of the three games that I laid out as historical comps before I will be okay with this so that would be 2021 in 2019 Miami and 2016 Bowling Green yeah the last time they did it was they did not do it against akan that was 237 385 2022 they went 340 and 322 against Indiana okay so um what were the other ones you wanted me to look at 2019 Miami and 2016 Bowling Green 2019 Miami that was 227 374 and 2017 Bowling Green 16 16 that was that was one of that okay what was what were those totals 359 and 417 but that was also a historically bad sure opponent sure and Akon's supposed to be this year or quite good I I I haven't done a deep dive on the Zips yet we'll get to that tomorrow I believe akan is going to be worse than uh Maryland from 2021 which we already established Ohio State could did not punt against them and that still makes this a bold prediction for them to not punt against akan okay so how about this 320 320 but you have to pick one that cannot be over 360 one of them has to be between 320 and 360 and you can pick which one all right um I'll say uh passing so I don't expect either of them to be three passing really you're taking passing that's oh boy passing oh that wasn't what I was expecting you to take no they're they're gonna are you sure yes you don't want to rethink this no I do not so under 360 passing believe me when that scoreboard hits 361 passing on on Saturday I will be letting you know I'm gonna be yelling for throw some screens and then Hammer those screens you need to get back to 359 all right Tom um did you come up with a a free onep pointer I did and keep with the spirit of the Jeremiah Smith ones Jeremiah Smith is targeted at least one time with a pass by an Ohio State quarterback with a pass with a pass yes not not a targeting penalty okay one intended pass for Jeremiah Smith okay I like that one I will allow it mine for you Tom is that trayon Henderson will average a yard per carry at least one tenth of his JY jersey number on10th of his jersey number is 3.2 I know it's it's a little high for a freebie but uh how about we flip and make it 2.3 how about quinan Judkins averages more than of his jersey number one tenth of his jersey number Quin Sean Judkins okay fine I like I I AC so much in this show it's unbelievable just wait till quinan Judkins comes out in number 98 on Saturday for some reason going to be I mean you'll be hosed on one of yours but I mean I will definitely lose my freebie so yeah all right so so there you have it the first bold prediction show of the C the the the Ohio State football season we've done others but this is the first game bold prediction show don't feel great about it but you're not supposed to feel great about it you're supposed to feel yucky and and angry and just terrible and I think that describes my feelings right now time do you have anything else before we go no Wrapping Up and Upcoming Content just make sure you stick around for our preview show on Friday we'll have uh have that coming up going to be doing a Morning Show with Kevin noon for Friday talking about a little bit more of a deep dive on akan and then of course a very busy weekend of content for you at Bucky huddle.com and youtube.com Bucky huddle yep and we will have our Akron game preview out for you guys tomorrow here at the Buckeye weekly podcast as well so thank you all for tuning in and we will talk to you guys later here