Why You Should BUY Low on Collin Morikawa at 2024 PGA Tour Championship! Golf Picks | Links & Locks

Subscribe to the New BBOC Channel! what's up college sports fans I'm Stucky I'm Colin Wilson I'm Mike calib I'm Maria Marino I'm Charlie dko and we're excited that the big bets on campus brand is launching its very own YouTube channel you'll be able to find every episode of the bboc podcast live shows and other college sports content on this new channel not only will the channel be dedicated to betting on college sports but you'll also be able to find exclusive interviews with former College athletes college football power range ings and updates on other topics like the brand new college football 25 video game series and the ins and outs of the recruiting Trail all the way down to the transfer portal whether you're into college football college basketball college baseball or any of the college sports we are the home for college sports and bboc is the channel for you make sure you subscribe so you don't miss any of the action I'll see you there welcome to linkx and lock podcast Introduction presented by bet 365 I'm your host Sandy laack and I'll be joined alongside action golf contributor Tony s Tor for bet365 Promo these Best Bets episodes Tony and I will play 18 holes today giving our 18 favorite picks for this week's Tour event the tour championship before we Patrick Cantlay dive into this week's episode a reminder that the links and loocks podcast is presented by bet 365 bet 365 doesn't do ordinary that's why you get more boost with them than with anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boost specific markets your winnings and even parlays and they don't stop there keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds with the inred incedible super boost check out the Boost and see why it's never ordinary at at 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona Colorado Indiana Iowa Louisiana North Carolina New Jersey Ohio Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky gambling problem call 1800 gambl or 1-800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions and restrictions Supply okay Tony we're on the first te here for our Tour Championship Best Bets get us started all right I'm going to start us out in the outright market and go after Patrick Klay at 35 to1 so as the odds indicate this tournament is most likely going to come down to Scotty and Xander and I believe the winner will be one of those two guys but I just see little I don't see a whole lot of value in their betting odds pre- tournament um but I do believe there's some worth their numbers worth taking some Dart throws on Lower in the board these are all going to be small plays for me this week because again I do think it's going to be Xander Scotti but I think 35 to1 is a buyable price on a guy like Klay um I mean Rory won here in 2022 and he started in the same uh six Place position at under so it's certainly possible to make up the ground and Klay typically thrives at East Lake he won here in 21 he finished seventh in 2022 and then fifth last season that's three straight years of very good um performance here and why I really like him at this number is because his putter has been on fire and his putter has been the only thing I don't want to say like holding him back at East because he's had such great results but if you look at his metrics his putting stats have been pretty terrible so he's bringing in a hot putter the sky feels like the limit for a guy that's had so much success here outside of that and on top of that I know it's going to be um there's so many ways to attack this venue and approach play will be big obviously but I think putting will also play a big role this week um uh each of the top four finishers here last year ranked in the top seven among on the field and strokes gain putting that was the only stat metric in which such a dominating Trend occurred but again there's so many ways to score here that I don't think it's going to be a one um Trick Pony um but Collin Morikawa his approach game strong with the Hop putter I think he's worth a shot at 35 to one yeah I have Klay in a different Market this week I I uh I took Klay minus 110 in a matchup over Colin morawa um you know you outlined some of the reasons that uh we should like can't at this golf course um I you know he's got four top I believe four or five top 25s in a row if you date all the way back to uh the US Open finish top five at Pinehurst finish top five the next week at The Travelers finish top 25 at the Open Championship finished top 15 in his first two playoff events as well um he's had a lot of success at Eastlake in the past two he's a former winner of the Tour Championship something feels a little bit off with Colin um you know this was a second week in a row where he's now had two middling finishes in the FedEx Cup playoffs at two golf courses that I thought were were pretty good fits for him and his approach play has kind of not necessarily fallen off a cliff but um he's had two poor approach performances in a row um and I think that's a very concerning sign when a player loses their greatest weapon and you know East Lake received a total overhaul this year it's a pretty brand new golf course they had a pretty big restoration and one of the things that you get with new golf courses is brand new greens um right and what happens with brand new greens uh basically when you complete a renovation in 10 months um you don't have any time for the greens to settle we saw this at Colonial this year so the greens are going to be super firm right you know how a golf a green settles is you know when a golf ball hits the green the green softens and over time a bunch of golf balls hit the green and the the green settles these greens are like concrete right they haven't received any play so approach play is going to be tremendously important here like it's going to be tremendously important to have that aspect of your game firing particularly um when you're you know playing approach shots out of Bermuda rough so I I just I don't trust where Collins games right now and I I thought even money on Klay was a pretty good bet yeah I like that and I do like Klay a lot to I am going to contr not contradict you but my next play was Moray Kawa outright as well um I'm going after him at 28 to1 I do get the concerns the one thing I do like about him is that even though he's taken a little bit of a step back recently his main weakness all year has kind of been or not I don't even want to call it a weakness but why the one thing you could say that his game lacks that the other big stars have is the distance off the team and I don't think that's going to Scottie Scheffler really matter a whole lot of this much at East Lake and that's really the only reason I want to buy low on Colin because I still while you are totally right his approach game has taken a step back recently and his and the results have in like uh correlated with the that step back I still think he's just one of the better golfers in this field and at 20 so he's tied with Canley at that T6 position and I just think he's he's until recently had such a good year there's no one in my mind that has has been more due for a win this year than Mory CWA and I just think at 28 to one that's a playable number for a guy who's finished six here twice over his four appearances um I do get the concerns though I absolutely do get the concerns um okay I'm gonna get into kind of the the obvious stuff the the uh the big stuff here I think plus 115 on Scotty shuffer is a steal personally I mean I my numbers have Scotty and Xander combining for an 80% over an 80% win probability um I can't believe he's plus money um this is a guy that we have bet at major championships at 4 to one this is a guy that we have bet at Signature Events at plus 350 um Scotty Scher wins 33% of the tournaments that he enters when everybody starts at zero you're telling me that Scotty Sheffer is plus money when he's starting at minus 10 and 25 of the 30 golfers in this field are five or more Strokes behind him um listen I understand the Xandra case and we'll get to him too um I like both of them a lot I I I think the Scotty number is wrong here and I think it's a really good opportunity this is as close to a Buy Low on Sheffer as you'll get like you know I remember everybody was down on Sheffer after his bad four days at Piner and what did he do the next week he won The Travelers Championship I remember remember when everybody started putting Keegan Bradley Xander ahead of Scotty at um after Xander won the open and what did Scotty Sheffer do the exact next week he won the gold medal medal at the Olympics I think you got to be aware of the the the the Gap closing and the Pendulum swinging too far on on uh Scotty's not as dominant as we think like this is a bad number uh in my opinion or or a number that I I would have I I had closer to to minus 120 so um I'll take Shaffer up plus 115 I I think he wins this thing yeah I mean I agree so like I open too I all these plays for me it was tough to get nine plays for me this week so like I'm these are all dart throws for me bigger numbers because I totally agree I think it's 100% going to be Scotty orander but um with that said there's two more dark throws I do want to make and the first is Keegan Bradley at 40 to1 I was just so shocked at the number this is a number more than I'm backing the number more than Bradley for sure and he's starting in fourth place at six under I know that's four back of Scotty and then two of Xander but he's he's longer than a bunch of the guys that are at Sixth and I know yes Keegan is not Rory he's not Klay he's not Mory Kawa I get that but he's still has he's one on tour three times since October of 2022 and when you include last week's win at the BMW that's more tour wins over that stretch than Schley Hideki morawa Burns and Klay he Bradley is yes I'm still I'm not saying he's better than those guys but he can win and he can beat those guys he's done it before I just think when you're seeing those guys that numbers between 25 to 35 to one then you have a guy who's Two Strokes above them at 40 to1 who has more wins on tour than each of those guys over the past year and a half I just think that's kind of a disrespectful price um so again just a little dark thr for me but Bradley at 40 to1 I like that number a lot yeah I've got um my next play is I have Scotty sha Xander shaffle dual forecast plus 180 um I you know I know it's no fun uh I I considered the Xander or Scotty minus 275 uh because my number has that a minus 400 um you know and I I know these bets aren't Fun by any means but you know I when I see value I see value and like just like we talked about with the no hole in one bat last week that was an easy cash um I you know I prefer Xandra to Scotty this week or sorry I prefer Scotty to Xander this week excuse me um and I do think Scotty is going to win but you know we got a bit of a runaway situation last year when the two best players in Xander schafle and Victor hoflin really ran away with it um and Scotty and Xander are you know they're pretty unbeatable when everyone starts at zero um and the fact that those guys are starting at minus 8 and minus 10 I mean it is this is narrative based right Sam Burns so it's you know obviously I give you a million statistics of why this is going to happen but like these guys have been the two best players of the season they are the two players that we should see they are the two players that we deserve as fans to see dueling it out in the Tour Championship anything other than a Xander or a Scotty win would feel a little bit weird uh through what we've seen this golf season does it doesn't mean that that can happen sport are sports are not scripted for a reason um but I think this format is conducive for a reason to see the two best players that are playing the best that have played the best all season that have the greatest advantage on this golf course based on their course fit um I'm going shock this week I think last week was the week where things got weird um I think this is a Scotty Xander duel through and through I'm going Scotty Xander dual forecast plus 180 I love what you said I definitely definitely feels like after year we deserve that Sunday final pairing of those two just battling out which would be a lot of fun um like I said earlier I have one more Dart throw to make in the outright market and that's Sam Burns at 45 to one so he plays alongside Mory K on can't lay in that T6 grouping at four under and I think this number is just to wide to pass up at 45 to One Burns tie for the fourth lowest non-adjusted score here last season and shot a 67 or lower in three of the four rounds the only two golfers to accomplish that feat last year were Victor who won the event and Xander who tied hins uh course leading non adjusted score the success of this venue makes you or makes sorry makes sense when you consider course Fit Burns is an incredible ball Striker and one of the best Putters on tour which is how traditionally you w at East Lake yeah it's going to be a little different this year with the the renovation but like you said with the greens I think put's going to play a huge huge part this week and burns is one of in my opinion and by most met it's one of the best Putters on tour he also enters this week in gr form Following last week's runnerup finish at the BMW so again if you're just throwing like little pizza money at longer numbers um I think there's worse ones to take than Burns at 45 to one uh I uh I like that play Burns kind of just missed the card so uh I'm glad that you got to him um I'm gonna talk about the low 72 hole score um I I very much on the record that I expect this to be a Scotty Xander battle at this point but I think Victor hlin at 16 to1 uh is a great bat to shoot the low 72 whole score um you know I think think he's just a lot closer than his results would suggest I mean he gained another over five Strokes on approach last week at the BMW Championship it was his first time gaining Strokes around the greens uh since the PGA Championship he's obviously played East Lake well before he both won the Tour Championship and shot the low 72 hole score last year um I this is a ball Striker test through Rin through uh I think that approach play driving accuracy is going to be essential this week and if you're telling me like on their best day who is one of the only guys in this field that can hang from a t to Green standpoint with Xander and Scotty um give me Victor hin at 16 to1 to shoot the low 72 ho score shoot out sitting at one under um you know I don't think he has a lot to lose he's shown he can do it on this course before um I think hain's going to show out this week yeah I could I could absolutely see it I'm going to go to the top five Market I'm gonna go after Windam Clark at plus 290 so he'll begin this position or tournament sorry in the T6 position at 4 under which already puts him right around the where we need him to be for this plus 290 because this is including ties but um who does he jump I guess is the question you got to ask when you're like is this worth taking a guy that's like three to one who can he jump um and one that jumped out to me is Hideki because Hideki could go on to win well I don't think he will but he could go on to win this but this is a guy who just withdrew from last week's BMW Championship due to a lower back injury after a stellar first round and it's happened time and again this year where Hideki even in weeks where he starts strong he's just a withdraw something goes on with him so I think there's concerns to be had with him and even if he doesn't withdraw and he's just he comes in relatively healthy how Tommy Fleetwood much is that back going to impact his performance so I think that's a jumpable golfer and another jumpable guy that I think Clark can um take down to get into the top five is ludvic and that's not because I don't think Clark is better than ludvig but ludvig's never played at East Lake before and there's going to be a lot of pressure on him starting out in that top five and it's first ever TOUR Championship can he step up to the pressure absolutely cuz I actually have a bet on him in a little bit as well but when it comes to Sunday after four rounds of his first um time at this venue in this important of a tournament it'll be just be interesting to see where the experience kind of comes into play and where it doesn't so there's just two guys I think he can jump when he's already at six I think there's just I think it's worth taking a shot down Clark to weasel is way back up into the top five at plus 290 I'm going to take another top five here with Tommy fle wood top five plus Chris Kirk 360 um I just love the way that fleetwood's playing right now he notched another top five last week at the BMW Championship gain Strokes in all four major categories I think East sl's a really good golf course for him I I I think this type of golf course where you have to be really accurate off the tea find the Fairway um hit your irons well some of these like driving accuracy and overall approach play golf courses like you know lolf National uh like Memphis you know he's been very good on Bermuda Greens in the past I think Tommy Fleetwood has uh the skill set that I think is going to work very well this week at East Lake I've got him top five at plus 360 I'm gonna go to top 10 it's G to be a little bit of a d throw um I'm going to go after Chris Kirk at nine to one uh so he's going to begin the week at even par which is t26 but with that said I think four days is enough time for him to make up some ground especially he's coming off that performance where he played really well last week's bnw championship in that tournament Kirk put together a brilliant all-around performance that resulted in a Ninth Place finish he gained true Strokes putting around the green on the approach off the te while also remaining longer and more accurate off the te than the field average it was a great allaround game which I think he will benefit him a lot obviously at East Lake he's only played at this venue once prior to this week but he posted a fourth place finish here as he once again utilized that well rounded game that we saw last week at the BMW he just seems like he could be peing again he's a guy that can has absolutely shown he can win on to her I'm not asking him to take down all the top dogs in top five but to get to the top 10 at 9 to one I definitely could see some crazier things than that happening I'm gonna go with sunj M plus 380 as another top five play for me uh I love sunj on this golf course uh he looked really good last week at the mmw championship notched another top 12 Xander Schauffele finish where he gained over a stroke in both ball striking categories now he's back on Bermuda we love him on these driving accur Bermuda Golf Courses like sedgfield um another Donald Ross course for what it's worth uh he's played well at East Lake in the past he's got a second place finish here where he charged up the leaderboard um I think he's a very good candidate to both shoot the low 72 hole score um and charge his way up to the leaderboard uh with another top five based on his fit on this specific Southeastern Bermuda Golf Course that he's played well at the past so give me sun JM Plus 380 I like it I'm going to take us into the first down leader market and now here is where I'm going to give a shot at some chalk I'm going to go after Xander at plus 280 but I would just as easily go after Scotty if the numbers are flipped I'm just I think Scotty is better than Xander okay like I absolutely think that but if I'm taking into account the fact that Scotty had some back issues last week and he lost Strokes on the approach for the first time and in since 2022 I think if you're taking those into your handicap then it evens out shley and Sheffer and if that's the case then I'm just going to take the one that's the bigger number but again like you said it's probably going to be all Xander and sky this week who comes on top I don't know but I think there's worse best to take on Thursday than Xander to make up that two-stroke difference at plus 280 especially if sheffer's back is a little tweaked um and then I mean and finally sorry stutter shle has had tremendous success at East Lake and I think just two strokes yes Scotty's the guy but two strokes is doable for a guy like Xander so plus 280 I'm targeting him in the first round leader Market I'm going to go with another uh of my Southeastern Bermuda Allstars in in Russell Henley I've got him at a top 10 plus 130 I thought that was a very fair number to get plus money on Russell Henley to work his way into the top 10 this is a player that I've been riding All Season uh he's one of the most accurate drivers of the ball in the field he's a great overall approach player I've already talked about um the importance of precision approach play on this golf course I think that you could get yourself in so Ludvig Aberg much trouble on this golf course by not driving the ball straight because there's going to be a high Miss Fairway penalty there's going to be a trickle down effect if you're not able to control your spin out of Bermuda rough which is going to be very hard on a 74,000 yard Golf Course uh 7400 yard Golf Course um and Henley also is one of the biggest risers on Bermuda Golf Courses when it comes to putting um he really does some of his best work on on these firm pure Bermuda grass greens we've seen him contend he's got four top seven finishes in a row at setfield that's another Southeastern Bermuda Golf Course with similar Agronomy designed by Donald Ross give me Russell Henley top 10 plus 130 I like it my uh final first round leader play is going to be L viig at 41 so I want to take one of the top dogss and I explain why I like Shi more than sheffler just pricewise um but that plays really just offer me some protection allows me to take a bigger swing for Thursday's first round leader market and that brings me to LV who at least is one of us in some capacity is seemingly on him every week I know we both see him in the same light that many do and that he's the next Superstar of golf but for right now and I talked about my concerns with him earlier it's not his skill set to take down rounds or to score here it's just over the long run of this tournament where will his lack of experience at East Lake and at a tour championship start to hinder him if say he is in the final running against Xander and Scotty on Sunday so that's Tony Finau why I just I'd rather just back him on Thursday cuz I think he can be the low guy skill set wise he can be the low guy in any round I think the lack of experience and exposure to this type of drama and turn type of Tournament level of tournament will ultimately be the reason that he does not go on to win it but I think he can take down a round and at 40 to1 I like ludvig to lead after the first round on Thursday uh I have I'll get to two more top 10 plays I thought this is a pretty good Market that this week based on some of the numbers I'm seeing I've got Tony fenale plus 130 in the top 10 Market uh I really like the way that he played last week at at BMW I had higher hopes from him I I bet him to win the golf tournament he ended up finishing in a tie for 13th uh really spurred by a four under round on Sunday um you know my numbers haveo is the third best approach player in the field behind Xander and Scotty I really think that feno can make a real dent in this tournament via his iron um he's had a lot better putting performances this year on Bermuda he used to be kind of firmly a guy that I would only pay on B grass he he kind of quelled a lot of that when he won the Houston open um a couple years ago he played well in Houston again this year he almost won at Pinehurst on pure Bermuda grass um I think it's an underrated spot for Tony fenale and I've got him top 10 plus 130 I've been on fenal a lot recently I like that so for my final play of the season I decided Hole In One Bet just do a fun one there's going to be like no anything to back this up other than I just want to do something fun that's going to be ho in one at plus 450 I know sometimes we've been on the opposite side of that we've been on the opposite side of that bet but I think that's just a fun one to end the year on just sprinkle it there's been multiple Aces here I know they don't happen often that's why we're getting plus 450 but when Woods won in 2019 Rey and shle both aced what I think is now 18 because of the re what I think it's now 18 then English did it on 15 which is the hardest part three 2021 so there is predent for Aces this week and that and they've happened on the tougher of the par 3es there's also a part three on the front where when the hole is going to be cut on the right I believe it's going to slope right into it so I think there will be a possibility for it at the end of the day it's just my last bet of the season so plus 450 on a hole in one will be a fun one just to throw some pizza money on and rud for all week I'm going to finish this off with my final play of the Season which is uh a little less bold than you but still one of my longer shots at least in the top 10 market and SE straa plus 240 um you know I didn't get to talk a lot about the the restoration here but the restoration was done uh by a guy named Andrew Green uh who's phenomenal a phenomenal restoration architect he did the restoration at my home course um and he you know one of the golf courses that He restored was oill ahead of the the 2023 PGA Championship a tournament that sep straa finished top five at um another Golf Course I think is going to be very similar to East Lake in terms of bet365 Promo the way it's going to play with the firmness of the greens is how Colonial played in 2024 right uh you know brand new greens and it was nearly impossible for players to stop balls out of Bermuda Ruff um heading into these firm new greens there's only two players in this entire field that finish top 20 at oill and 2024 Colonial um and that's Scottish y for sep straa um I think it's a pretty good spot for for sep straa um he's played well at East Lake in the past he's a very accurate driver of the ball uh so give me sep straa to finish top 10 plus one 240 excuse me uh and that'll do it for our best best episode for the tour championship before we get out of here final reminder that the links and Lux podcast is presented by bet 365 bet 365 doesn't do ordinary that's why you get more boost with them than with anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boost specific markets your winnings and even parlays and they they don't stop there keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds with the incredible super boost check out the Boost and see why it's never ordinary at at 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona Colorado Indiana Iowa Louisiana North Carolina New Jersey Ohio Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky gambling problem call 1 1800 gamble or 1800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions and restrictions apply as a reminder our action experts Spencer aiar and Nick brwi return with host Roberto guo tomorrow for our TOUR Championship betting preview right here on the linkx and locks podcast so for Tony Sartor I'm your host Andy La and we'll see you back here next week on the links and locks podcast presented by Beth 365