Harris is leading or tied with Trump in all but one swing state, polling shows

Harris leading or tied with Trump in all but one swing state >> AIM, WHY DON'T YOU TELL US SOMETHING NEW THAT YOU HAVE TODAY. >> WOW. >> IT'S SO FUNNY, AIM. I THINK WHEN YOU WERE HERE BEFORE JULY WE WERE TALKING ABOUT JOE BIDEN. THE TRUMP PEOPLE WERE TALKING ABOUT HOW THEY WERE GOING TO WIN. THEY WERE MEASURING THE CURTAINS, ET CETERA, ET CETERA I THINK WE ALL SAID IT'S ONLY JULY NOW WE CAN SAY IT'S ONLY AUGUST SO IT'S STILL, STILL EARLY, YOU GO, AGAIN, QUOTING CHURCHILL FOR THE 18th TIME. AT LEAST IT'S SORT OF THE END OF THE BEGINNING. WE'RE ABOUT TO GET INTO THE FULL SWING OF THE CANE. >> OH, YEAH. >> YOU'VE GOT NEW NUMBERS FROM SWING STATES WHAT ARE YOU FINDING >> YEAH. YOU'RE RIGHT THIS HAS HAS BEEN RESET, CERTAINLY SINCE MAY, BUT EVEN SINCE JULY WHEN PRESIDENT BIDEN DROPPED OUT. LOOK, BACK IN MAY WE DID WE SAY BIDEN TRAILING IN ALL OF THE SWING STATES OR AT BEST TIED RIGHT NOW HARRIS IS EITHER LEADING OR TIED WITH TRUMP IN THOSE SWING STATES THERE'S ONE STATE, NEVADA, WHICH SHE'S STILL TRAILING IN, BUT OVERALL IF YOU LOOK AT THE SEVEN SWING STATES, HARRIS IS WITHIN THE MARGIN BUT UP 48/47. BIDEN WAS DOWN BY THREE POINTS SO IT'S A RESET. TO ME WHAT'S THE MOST REMARKABLE PIECE OF THIS POLL IT'S WHAT WE'VE BEEN SEEING IN SURVEYS NOW THAT HAVE BEEN COMING OUT IN THE LAST WEEK OR SO HOW LITTLE SHE HAS BEEN BURDENED, SHALL WE SAY, BY HER ASSOCIATION WITH THE ADMINISTRATION SHE'S THE SITTING VICE PRESIDENT AND YET 59% OF VOTERS IN THESE SWING STATES THINK THAT SHE IS BASICALLY THE CHANGE CANDIDATE SHE'S TURNING THE PAGE FROM TRUMP AND BIDEN. SHE A GENERATIONAL CHANGE OBVIOUSLY, BUT THEY BELIEVE THAT, TOO, AND EVEN THOUGH TRUMP IS AHEAD ON ISSUES LIKE IMMIGRATION AND THE ECONOMY, ON INFLATION, OBVIOUSLY THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE FOR SO MANY VOTERS, SHE'S ONLY TRAILING TRUMP BY SIX POINTS I THINK IF BIDEN -- WERE BIDEN IN THIS RACE IT WOULD BE A MUCH BIGGER MARGIN. >> AMY, WHEN YOU WERE HERE LAST WITH THOSE POLLS THAT SHOWED SO MUCH OF THIS RACE HAD SWUNG TOWARDS DONALD TRUMP, THERE WAS, AS YOU KNOW, AMONG DEMOCRATS A SENSE OF RESIGNATION. >> YES. >> MID-SUMMER. THE DEBATE WAS A DISASTER. JOE BIDEN, WE LOVE THE GUY BUT HE'S TOO OLD I'M NOT GOING TO VOTE FOR DONALD TRUMP AND I THINK I'M SITTING THIS ONE OUT IS THAT WHAT THIS IS ABOUT >> THOSE VOTERS WHO WERE PARKING FOR THEMSELVES SAYING I'M GOIN TO VOTE FOR RFK JR. OR UNDECIDED HAVE NOW ALL COME BACK TO DEMOCRATS. WHAT'S INTERESTING, TOO, IS RFK JR. NOW IS MORE OF A PROBLEM FOR TRUMP THAN HE IS FOR -- FOR HARRIS AGAIN, MANY OF HER VOTERS NOW COMING BACK TO HER, BUT THE RFK VOTER IS JUST BY PROFILE IS SOMEBODY WHO SHOULD BE OR WOULD BE -- WOULD BE MORE INTERESTED IN VOTING FOR DONALD TRUMP. >> SO AMY, IS IT OVERSTATING IT TO INDICATE THAT -- THAT THE MOVEMENT OF VOTERS BACK TOWARDS THE VICE PRESIDENT WERE SITTING ON THE FENCE OR JUST NOT THINKING ABOUT THINGS? >> YEAH. >> IS IT A COMBINATION OF RELIEF AND GRATITUDE AMONG VOTERS, GRATITUDE TOWARDS THE PRESIDENT FOR WITHDRAWING AND RELIEF, AS YOU POINTED OUT, THAT A SITTING VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES IS NOW SOMEONE NEW? >> SHE'S NEW, AND I DO THINK -- I DO WONDER IF SHE WEREN'T A WOMAN, IF THIS WEREN'T AS HISTORIC AS IT IS, IF YOU WOULD HAVE THAT LEVEL OF MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY BECAUSE SHE LITERALLY IS -- EVEN IF YOU DON'T KNOW MUCH ABOUT POLITICS, YOU'RE NOT FOLLOWING THIS DAY TO DAY, YOU'VE BEEN HEARING AND SEEING FROM TWO OLDER WHITE GUYS FOR A LONG TIME NOW AND BEING VERY UNINSPIRED BY IT, AND THEN ALL OF A SUDDEN HERE COMES THIS WOMAN WHO DOESN'T LOOK OR ACT OR SOUND LIKE ANYTHING YOU'VE SEEN BEFORE IN POLITICS AND SUDDENLY IT'S LIKE, HUH, I'M -- I'M GOING TO LISTEN IN SO SHE'S GETTING A BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT THAT IS Harris gaining support in battleground states QUITE REMARKABLE FOR A SITTING VICE PRESIDENT. >> J. MART ABOUT WHAT WE'RE SEEING HERE TRANSIT, NOT THAT DONALD TRUMP IS LOSING SUPPORT, BUT RATHER THAT KAMALA HARRIS HAS GAINED SUPPORT, RECONSOLIDATED AS AMY SAID. >> EXACTLY. >> AND IT'S PARTICULARLY OF NOTE AS YOU TALK TO DEMOCRATS HOW THEY FEEL. YOUNGER VOTERS COMING HOME AND CERTAINLY VOTERS OF COLOR, AND THAT'S JUST A COALITION THAT SHE HAS TO BUILD, PARTICULARLY IN THE SUBURBS AND THE BIG CITIES IN THESE BATTLEGROUND STATES. >> YEAH. IT FEELS LIKE FOLKS COMING HOME RATHER THAN HER MOVING UNDECIDED VOTERS TO THE DEMOCRATIC COLUMN. I MEAN, THERE'S OBVIOUSLY A HUGE DIFFERENCE NOW IN AN ERA OF POLARIZATION, GETTING DEMOCRATS TO COME HOME AND GETTING THEM MOTIVATED IS CRUCIAL BECAUSE MOBILIZATION MATTERS. I DON'T THINK IT MATTERS AS MUCH AS PERSUASION, BUT MOBILIZATION MATTERS A LOT. THE KEITH FOR HER IS GOING TO BE THE NEXT PHASE WHICH IS PERSUASION, WHICH IS MOVING UNDECIDED VOTERS TO THE DEMOCRATIC COLUMN. THOSE NUMBERS YOU GUYS FLASHED ON THE SCREEN FOR THE VP ARE POSITIVE VIS-A-VIS WHERE BIDEN WAS, BUT THEY ARE STILL CHALLENGING FOR A DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT. LOOK, IT'S NOT IDEAL TO BE LOSING NARROWLY IN NEVADA AND TO BE BASICALLY TIED IN PENNSYLVANIA RIGHT NOW BECAUSE IF YOU LOSE THOSE TWO STATES, THE PATH TO THE WHITE HOUSE GETS REALLY COMPLICATED FOR A DEMOCRAT, BUT OBVIOUSLY THIS IS A LOT BETTER THAN WHERE THEY WERE A TWO MONTHS AGO. ALSO GUYS, IT'S IMPORTANT TO POINT OUT WHAT SHE'S ALSO DONE, SHE'S STABILIZED DOWN BALLOT SPEAKING OF DEMOCRATS COMING HOME, THERE WERE SO MANY HOUSE AND SENATE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES WHO WERE WORRIED THAT THEY WERE NOW TOAST BECAUSE BIDEN WAS SO WEAK ON TOP OF THE TICKET. AT THE VERY LEAST NOW, SHE'S HELPED STABILIZE CANDIDATES WHO WERE LOOKING FOR VOLUNTEERS, WHO WERE LOOKING FOR -- FOR SUPPORT, LOOKING FOR CONTRIBUTIONS AND ALL OF THAT WAS DRYING UP OVER THE SUMMER Rising tide lifts Democrats NOW AT LEAST I THINK A LOT OF FOLKS DOWN BALLOT FEEL BETTER ABOUT THEIR CHANCES. >> YEAH. IN A RACE LIKE THIS, A RISING TIDE REALLY DOES LIFT ALL BOATS. DEMOCRATS DON'T LIKE THAT. >> YES. >> IT REALLY DOES, AND THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT'S HAPPENING HERE. DONNY, I WAS SAYING THAT EVIDENCE THAT YOUNG VOTERS WERE COMING HOME TO DEMOCRATS WAS ANECDOTAL BEFORE NOW WE SEE THE NUMBERS THAT THAT IS HAPPENING I SUSPECT IT WILL CONTINUE TO HAPPEN, BUT, YOU KNOW, THAT WAS JOE BIDEN'S BIGGEST CHALLENGE AS HAS BEEN POINTED OUT HERE. IT'S NOT THAT DONALD TRUMP IS LOSING VOTERS. IT'S THAT KAMALA HARRIS IS PICKING UP VOTERS THAT WERE STAYING AWAY YOUNGER VOTERS COMING HOME, PEOPLE OF COLOR. VOTERS COMING HOME, WOMEN, MORE WOMEN MOVING TO KAMALA HARRIS AND HER DIRECTION. ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT THOUGH, EVEN THOUGH THEY DON'T VOTE AS MUCH AS OLDER VOTERS, YOUNGER VOTERS, THE ENERGY THAT IS NOW BEHIND KAMALA HARRIS IS JUST SO STRIKING, AND I SAY THAT MAINLY ANECDOTALLY. >> YEAH. >> BUT THERE ARE SO MANY YOUNGER VOTERS THAT WERE GOING TO SIT IT OUT AND JUST HAD NO CONNECTION TO JOE BIDEN BUT NOW WANT TO VOLUNTEER, THAT WANT TO GO TO Hope and change RALLIES, THAT WANT TO MAKE PHONE CALLS. IT'S -- IT'S PRETTY STRIKING JUST THE DIFFERENCE A MONTH MAKES. >> TWO WORDS, AND YOU GUYS HAVE TALKED ABOUT IT. HOPE AND CHANGE. IF YOU LOOK BACK, THE LAST 30 YEARS WHEN THE DEMOCRATS HAVE HAD THAT ENTHUSIASM, THAT KIND OF WAVE THAT WE'RE FEELING WITH BILL CLINTON I WORKED ON BILL CLINTON'S CAMPAIGN IN 1992, DID ADVERTISING AND, OF COURSE, WITH BARACK OBAMA YOU HAD THAT HOPE AND CHANGE HILLARY CLINTON, YOU COULDN'T SELL THAT, AND SHE LOST. JOE BIDEN, HE WON, HE SQUEAKED IT OUT, BUT THERE WASN'T THAT ENTHUSIASM WHY? BECAUSE YOU COULDN'T SELL HOPE AND CHANGE WHEN YOU HAVE THAT, YOU'RE ALMOST UNBEATABLE. THAT'S KIND OF WHAT YOU MENTIONED. EVERY CONSTITUENCY, YOUNG PEOPLE, PEOPLE OF COLOR. THEY WANT HOPE THEY WANT CHANGE PRETTY MUCH EVERYBODY WANTS, THAT EVEN IF YOU'RE HAPPY IN YOUR LIFE. YOU WANT MORE HOPE, YEAH YOU WANT MORE CHANGE, YEAH THAT'S THE THING THAT'S THE WAVE THAT'S HAPPENING, AND THAT'S WHAT THE COOK REPORT IS SAYING. THAT'S WHAT ALL THE ANECDOTAL THINGS ARE SAYING, SO WHEN YOU HAVE THAT, AS I SAID, THOSE MAGICAL TWO WORDS AND DONALD TRUMP CAN STAND ON HIS HEAD. THERE'S ONE THING HE CAN'T GIVE YOU IS CHANGE AND CERTAINLY CAN'T GIVE YOU HOPE HE'S GOING Independents IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION. ONCE AGAIN BILL CLINTON AND BARACK OBAMA AND CHAIRIES, HOPE AND CHANGE. >> THE WORD YOU KEEP HEARING HAT THESE RALL SIS JOY THEY ARE HAPPY TO BE THERE AND ENTHUSIASTIC AND YOU CONTRAST WITH DONALD TRUMP ON X FOR TWO HOURS WITH ELON MUSK JUST LAYING OUT HIS GRIEVANCES, A VERY DIFFERENT PICTURE THERE. A NUMBER INSIDE YOUR REPORT THAT WILL HEARTEN THE HARRIS CAMPAIGN WHICH IS THE INDEPENDENT NUMBER WHICH THREE MONTHS AGO THAT DONALD TRUMP IN YOUR ANALYSIS PLUS THREE NOW HARRIS PLUS 8. THAT'S A HUGE NUMBER. >> THAT'S A HUGE MOVEMENT AND A LOT OF INDEPENDENT WOMEN THAT ARE COMING OVER AND RIGHT NOW SUPPORTING HARRIS. I THINK, YOU KNOW, TO JONATHAN'S POINT WHEN YOU LOOK AT WHO THE UNDECIDED VOTERS ARE, PEOPLE WHO ARE STILL SAYING MAYBE I'LL VOTE THIRD PARTY, THEY ARE VERY CROSS-PRESSURED ON THE FOLLOWING. THEY FEEL VERY ANXIOUS ABOUT THE ECONOMY. THEY DO FEEL LIKE INFLATION IS GETTING WORSE AT A HIGHER LEVEL THAN THE OVERALL ELECTORATE. THEY DON'T LIKE DONALD TRUMP PERSONALLY I FEEL LIKE WE'RE RERUBBING THIS SAME PLAYBOOK NOW FOR A LONG TIME OF VOTERS WHO SAY, WELL, I MEAN, I KIND OF LIKED HIS POLICIES WHEN HE WAS PRESIDENT I DON'T REALLY LIKE HOW HE ACTS, AND SO THOSE VOTERS, HOW HARRIS TALKS TO THOSE VOTERS, HOW SHE'S ABLE TO, AS JONATHAN POINTED OUT, PERSUADE THEM THAT SHE'S GOING TO BE ABLE TO -- TO DELIVER FOR THEM, AND MORE IMPORTANT IF TRUMP CAN STAY ON THE MESSAGE ABOUT THE ECONOMY, BUT, AGAIN, I FEEL LIKE WE'VE HAD THIS CONVERSATION OVER AND OVER AGAIN. The race is tied >> YES. >> IF ONLY HE WOULD STICK TO A MESSAGE ON THE THING THAT HE'S ACTUALLY WINNING ON. >> YEAH. THAT -- THAT'S -- A LOT OF PEOPLE INSIDE THE CAMPAIGN AND THE REPUBLICAN PARTY WOULD LIKE HIM TO DO THE SAME THING HE'S NOT J. MART, I WAND TO UNDERLINE SOMETHING THAT YOU SAID. IT'S SO IMPORTANT FOR PEOPLE WATCHING YES, THESE NUMBERS HAVE SHIFTED WHERE WE ARE RIGHT NOW THOUGH. IF YOU LOOK AT ALL THESE NUMBERS, KIND OF WHERE WE WERE A MONTH AGO AS FAR AS THIS RACE BEING CLOSE. THIS IS STILL TIED THIS RACE IS TIED RIGHT NOW. >> YEAH. >> NOW IT'S TIED WITH WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TO HARRIS. >> YES. >> A MONTH AGO IT WAS TIED WITH A SLIGHT LEAN EXCEPT IN NEVADA IN NORTH CAROLINA. IF YOU LOOK AT THOSE NUMBERS IN MAY WITH A SLIGHT LEAN IN ALL THE STATES THAT REALLY MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE. SO IT'S HARRIS PLUS TWO NOW IN ARIZONA. IT WAS PLUS ONE. TIED IN GEORGIA, IT WAS TRUMP PLUS THREE YOU GO DOWN THIS LIST. EVERYTHING EXCEPT FOR NEVADA AND NORTH CAROLINA, THOSE ARE ALL WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR. >> YEAH. >> THIS RACE IS TIED. >> YEAH. JOAD, WE'RE IN AN ERA OF POLITICAL TRENCH WARFARE THIS IS WORLD WAR I IN AMERICAN POLITICS AMY MENTIONED THE SAME CONVERSATION THAT WE'VE ALL BEEN HAVING FOR NINE YEARS. YEAH, BECAUSE WE'RE 51/49 COUNTRY AND DEMOCRATS HAVE AN ADVANTAGE, BUT OBVIOUSLY WE HAVE AN ELECTORAL COLLEGE, NOT A POPULAR VOTE, SO IT'S A TOSSUP COUNTRY AND HAS BEEN NOW FOR THE LAST THREE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. TWO THINGS FIRST OF ALL, IF YOU LOOK AT GEORGIA AND NORTH CAROLINA IN THAT GRAPHIC YOU JUST SHOWED THIS IS IMPORTANT TO FOCUS ON, TOO. IT DOES SHOW THE POSSIBILITY THAT KAMALA HARRIS COULD GALVANIZE BLACK VOTERS IN A WAY THAT WE HAVEN'T SEEN SINCE 12 IN AMERICAN POLITICS. LOOK AT THAT NUMBER THERE WHERE SHE OBVIOUSLY HAS MOVED NUMBERS IN GEORGIA AND NORTH CAROLINA, BOTH STATES WITH SIGNIFICANT BLACK POPULATIONS. BOY, IF SHE CAN WIN GEORGIA AND NORTH CAROLINA, THAT REALLY, REALLY CHANGES THE