Early NFL Week 1 2024 Best Bets! MUST BETS!

which games are the Best Bets of week one this NFL season what's going on football fans and grid iron gamblers out there it's Mitch back with a fresh new NFL Best Bets video these are my favorite spreads for week one of the 2024 NFL season we're in early July but it's never too early people have been betting on these spreads since they've come out but before training camp before preseason before the hype of fantasy football truly takes hold before the hype of Hard Knocks and every other storyline that takes place throughout training camp we have an advantage at our fingertips early spreads that the public hasn't already attacked and I like to use my Edge and my expertise of studying these rosters these teams throughout free agency throughout the draft each and every day of the offseason that is what I do so I love week one cuz I often can find some really great gems and the undervalued teams that maybe Vegas hasn't quite caught on to yet and certainly the public has not caught on to yet so if that sounds good gr Spike the like button for weekly NFL Best Bets all season long subscribe NFL weekly picks each and every week on the blv my favorite video to make each and every week I'm so excited for 2024 let's get to eight games half the schedule for week one essentially that I really like and the games that in July right now are really catching my interest so these spreads will change depending on when you're watching this video through the summer so keep that in mind but I definitely would take a look if you are heavily invested on winning some money betting the NFL in 2024 so let's start off we're just going to go in the order of the schedule beginning with the New England Patriots and the Cincinnati Bengals and I wanted to start with the game that involves my team first so that if you don't like to bet on my team cuz I understand there might be some bias here obviously but this is just like you could put any two teams in this graphic and this is really the fundamental thing about the NFL it's week one of the NFL season you could put any two teams in this graphic and I would bet this game I would bet the n and a half no matter what it said on this graphic I don't care if it's the 2007 Patriots against the 2 4 Cincinnati Bengals I really do not care right to me n and a half points especially in this NFL the modern 2024 NFL where every team from 1 to 32 is so tight at the beginning of the year and there's a lack of practice there's a lack of contact there's a lack of potentially guys that are in shape there's so many factors early in an NFL calendar Joe Bro not playing actual football for so long like so many factors going into this game for why you would want to back the Patriots with 9 and a half points in the first week of the season first of all I think the Patriots are slept on to some degree I do think let's just think about it we could go through an arc here throughout the off season where New England could actually surprise because hey maybe Drake May becomes the starter maybe Drake May is really darn good early in his career and he blows up the preseason this number would instantly fall to probably like 7 and a half like the number is going to dip if Drake May shows Goods in the preseason because if he starts people are now going to say well jacobe we kind of knew what he was people are not very high on him although I do think you know jacobe the last couple times he started whether it be in Washington or in Cleveland in previous Seasons he actually has been decent right better than his career in Miami or Indianapolis or all that and this is the same Cleveland offense same coordinator same play caller that he once had in Cleveland right not stefansky calling plays but essentially the same coordinator same quarterback coach that sort of deal so it's a similar offense for brassette or you've got potentially a rookie that is setting the preseason on fire because the Patriots probably don't want to start May unless he's clearly the better option which could happen in my opinion cuz I think he's that talented now on top of that situation with the quarterbacks you have the rust of the Bengals that could be a factor in terms of Joe burrow right like burrow has not played NFL action he will not be hit in the offseason they're going to be ultra conservative he's probably not going to play much in the preseason there's going to be little reason for the Bengals to risk it given what happened last year that means he's likely going to start slow and on top of that burrow is taking on arguably the best defense in the league like by the end of last year the Patriots finished number one in EPA allowed in the NFL from weeks 10 to 18 without their two best players Christian Gonzalez and Matthew judon so this is a top five defense pretty much anywhere you slice it in any way you slice it so yes T Higgins Jamar Chase I like the offensive line the Bengals I think the Bengals are going to be an elite team that goes on to be Inc contention but remember the Bengals are a team that typically do sort of start a a little bit slower and they tend to gain traction near the end of the year that's at least what we've seen with Joe burrow LED teams even last year BR was really on fire right before he got injured if you might recall so to me the Bengals I think they're going to be in for a fight because the Patriots defense is going to make this competitive typically defense is more in their bag early in a season cuz offenses it involves more Rhythm play calling kind of like X's O's and like details and and timing and all those things so for me I look at a Bengals offense that yes is potent on paper but I think could struggle a little bit against a really good pass rushing team with judon and us and barmore and wise and these guys com in at Burrow on top of that the Bengals don't have the most dynamic rushing attack I think they're going to struggle to run the ball against one of the better run defenses from a year ago in New England and the Patriots with Gonzalez potentially have a number one corner that could match up with Jamar Chase they've got a plethora of DBS like Dugger Peppers Jonathan Jones Marcus Jones and even a couple years ago the Patriots played the Bengals Bengals were blowing them out and then the Patriots came right back they nearly won that game they probably could have won that game in the end so ultimately I think this is probably going to be like that sneaky one- score game where the Bengals are supposed to blow out the Patriots but I just don't think the defense of New England is going to allow that and I think the Bengals are not going to be playing their Peak football I think they're going to have a tough time getting settled and playing in Rhythm and all those things so it's nine and a half points it's too many points in the first week of the season for a team that has new elements on their defense new elements on the offensive line quarterback that hasn't played in a long time there's a lot of factors here why I believe New England could keep this one extem extr competitive I'm not saying they're going to win I do believe the Bengals will win but I wouldn't be shocked if this game was closer than people expect so that's the first game that really catches my eye mostly due to just the number but there are matchup things including the Patriots defense really being probably underrated but honestly just very good then you have the Pittsburgh Steelers at the Atlanta Falcons I like the Steelers catching points here on the road at Atlanta now I typically would not like the Steelers in a road setting right like in Atlanta Dome Kirk Cousins a lot of hype involved there fan base in Atlanta should be pretty pumped the atmosphere will be great but what I love about this matchup is a couple things first of all I think that cousins is a complete Wild Card like we don't really know how good cousins is going to be I'm not sure how much we're going to see him in the preseason I'm not sure how much they're going to risk his injury or him you know kind of injuring that Achilles right this is an Achilles tear this is not an even an ACL this is not a shoulder injury right this is an Achilles a serious NFL injury that we've rarely seen quarterbacks come back from and be successful so to me that's a big deal secondly the former head coach of the Falcons is now the offensive coordinator of the Steelers Arthur Smith there is a Revenge element here returning to Atlanta this was not a good say goodbye to Arthur Smith who many Falcons fans did not like and just overall did not have the greatest finish there in Atlanta and to me I could see him bringing a much better offense to the Steelers this year I think their run game is going to be much better with niji Harris and Jaylen Warren with a new offensive line right multiple young players at tackle you've got a new center potentially and then two guards that are professionals good players in Daniels and Sam Malo and then you got Jones and they spent on the kid from Washington at the other Tackle Spot so I think one of the more slept on offensive lines I think the Steelers have the pass rush to get after Kirk Cousins I don't think that bejan's going to just be able to run all over them this is the Pittsburgh Steelers with TJ Watt and Alex heith and cam Hayward all healthy to begin the year Pat Queen will be involved Minka will be healthy when the Steelers defense is healthy they're going to be one of the tops in the league and they should be healthy to start the year you've got a guy like like Joey Porter Jr who's going to be a really good matchup for Drake London being that he's tall he's long he's got some speed to him where he's not too small he's physical right he's a great size and stature to take on Drake London on the outside so that's a good matchup you've got George Pickins on the outside with Russell Wilson the type of receiver that I think Russ really Jes with and gels with really well and Russell Wilson is going to have a point to prove in the city that I believe his wife is from if I'm not mistaken in Atlanta with Sierra so there's going to be some things there in terms of Sierra and Russell Wilson I believe and I just think that Russell Wilson might be a little bit slept on coming into this game against an injured you know coming back from injury Kirk Cousins I think a lot of people would say cousins is a superior quarterback but I wouldn't be shocked against the weaker defense if Russ outplayed cousins in this spot I just think he's going to be more comfortable to begin the year in this location Plus you've got Mike Tomlin and the edge that exists for Mike Tomlin in week one against a rookie coaching staff so there's many elements here that I like about the Steelers classically an underrated team I think right now an underrated Steeler roster and I think a slightly overrated Falcon roster given that mostly their defense is is one of the kind of bottom units in terms of talent in the league in my opinion they don't have a potent pass rush their run defense is average their their overall secondary dep is pretty mid so to me the Falcons I just think are a little bit overrated I have the Steelers ahead of the Falcons in my power rankings that's even just a simple reason why I would take the Steelers here the Carolina Panthers catching Five Points at the new Orland Saints this is one of those games that many people are going to say Mitch you're insane for taking the Carolina Panthers in any game and betting on the Carolina Panthers they were the worst team in the NFL last year they sucked they're going to be the worst team this year but this is the thing about betting sometimes especially early in the year you have to bet ugly games that nobody wants to bet I don't think there's a single human that wants to bet on the Carolina Panthers in week one but catching Five Points in a divisional matchup against a pretty average roster in the New Orleans Saints with an improved Carolina team with a new coach in Dave Canales I'm taking the Panthers I think this will be a one- score game now the Saints should win by like a field goal but five points is simply inflating their value the Saints are not a great team Derek Carr is not a great quarterback the offensive line Ryan ramek is not even certain to be playing in this game they have a rookie left tackle who's more of a right tackle that they think is going to play left tackle they're I think running game is pretty putrid despite having Elvin chimra and they really have one receiver in Chris olve who's going to have a tough time his hands will be full with JC horn who's a really good corner to match up with him so I look at Carolina and I say they got an offensive line now you know Robert hunt Damen Lewis if aanu can play a little bit better and they can get solid Center play they should have great protection in a good strong running game they're going to lean on the running game have a lot of play action easy throws for Bryce young they're not going to make anything too difficult Deontay Johnson is the type of receiver that does thrive against man coverage if the Saints want to try to press him and do some things and and play Man coverage there you've got Adam th in the L to be able to beat Zone coverage and you've of course got the rookie Xavier Legette that at any time could make a huge play down the field so to me I look at Carolina I just think they're a little bit underrated overall in terms of like comparison to the Saints I don't see the Saints as Five Points better than really any team in the league especially a divisional team and I'm expecting um improved offense improved scheme I think they're going to have a better overall vision for Bryce can do well and not do well I think they're going to work that out throughout the off season so I think the Panthers will sneak up on the Saints here and make this one pretty competitive overall the Minnesota Vikings at the New York Giants is my next pick I would take the Vikings in a pick them situation this spread not too long ago was the Vikings I Believe by 2 and a half if I'm not mistaken but picking a Sam Darnell Le Vikings team to go to the Giants and to beat New York by a field goal is a bit dicey but overall I would take the Vikings I think they're the better roster I think coach for Coach they're probably better although I do like the Giants coaching staff as well and I would say that the the Vikings had the better offensive line by a long shot I think the Vikings had the better defense and despite not having home field I think the quarterbacks are pretty pretty even like they're both athletes Sam darnold and Daniel Jones that don't have much of a brain I think darnold will actually be a better player this year than Daniel Jones I I wouldn't be shocked I think Sam darnold is just as talented if not more I think he's got more elusiveness in his bag I think he's got more arm angles more platforms to throw from I think he is erratic but so is Daniel Jones J Daniel Jones is very structured and I think this is the type of Defense to give him a lot of issues because Brian Flores is a blitzing machine he's known from coming from all angles and he's going to have all this time to prepare for Daniel Jones in an absolutely terrible offensive line so he's going to find lanes and ways to absolutely stress an a new offensive line with a new coach new different players in different spots like this is not a good matchup despite not being the Kirk Cousins Vikings with a better more solidified veteran quarterback they're going to have Aaron Jones in the backfield healthy they're going to have Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison they might not have TJ Hawkinson but they're going to have their two tackles darasa and O'Neal they're going to be able to pass protect on the road I'm not too worried about that they're going to be able to run the ball just a little bit and I think darnold off play action and I mean who's covering Justin Jefferson in this game who's covering Jordan Addison in this game the the Giants do not have corners to play one-on-one on islands and again like Flores is going to Feast against an offensive line that's taking to new coaching and has new elements and has new tackle and a new guard and like so many different things here they don't have saquin anymore they've got a rookie receiver they have to rely on to make all their plays like to me the Vikings are a class above the Giants and despite it being on the road this is a Sam darnold returned to New York that just feels like he'll win this game so to me I like the Vikings a lot the more that I think about this game the Las Vegas Raiders at the Chargers getting three in the hook this is just a nice little division game that I think a lot of people are going to be hyped about Harbaugh but I think this is a perfect time to fade him because I think the Raiders the more talented roster it you know remember that game that they played late last year I understand that was kind of Brandon Staley's last teron it was Easton stick a little r hockey stick playing quarterback so it's not going to be like 65 to zero or whatever it was but the Raiders are a more talented roster in my opinion do the Chargers have a better quarterback absolutely but the Chargers have a new head coach they have a new offensive coordinator they have a new defensive scheme so overall they have a lot changing the Raiders have a lot of carryover they are changing their offensive coordinator but their defense is the same their head coach will be the same and Antonio pierce the the guy that took over last year for Josh McDaniels so I look at this end I expect Gardner mchu to be the quarterback if Gardner mchu is not the quarterback it's going to be a quarterback that already is familiar with the rest of the team and Aiden oconnell so either way I'm not too uncomfortable but Gardner mchu I trust because he's a veteran he's played in many systems he'll be ready to go in week one the offensive line I think is a bit underrated in terms of what they've done this offseason adding a guy like Jackson poers Johnson in the draft having a stud left tackle and Colton Miller that can go totoo with boar or Mack and to me like the Raiders o line they run the ball really well the Chargers are a pretty pedestrian run defense if not pedestrian might be being nice like putrid might be a better word and zamir white could go off for 120 yards and if the Raiders are able to run the ball that's the way they want to play right that is how they want to play the Chargers are going to want to try to run the ball a bit in this game to establish their new identity but the Raiders are good against the Run especially after adding one of the best run defenders in football in Christian Wilkins along with Max Crosby plus they've got pass rushers to test the young tackle in you know their first round pick out of Notre Dame in Joe alt like Co and Crosby coming off the edge that's going to be tough from day one it will probably be Crosby right if alt is playing right tackle so that is a nightmare matchup then you've got Brock Bowers working against terrible linebackers from the Chargers you've got right receivers like Adams and Meyers taking on a pretty mediocre secondary for the Chargers overall even the the the discrepancy in quarterback I still feel like the Raiders match up extremely well with the Chargers this is a stadium that they often get a ton of fans at this is you know Los Angeles this is ultimately the Raiders City still in my opinion so to me the Raiders I I think their talent could really win them this game and their matchup could win them this game in week one would I be shocked if the Chargers won because they have the better quarterback and they have the better Coach I wouldn't be shocked but would you be shocked if this game ended 20 to 17 and the Chargers won and you still covered I wouldn't so to me getting the hook here is absolutely massive in a divisional matchup the Tennessee Titans at the Chicago Bears this is another one that feels inflated I would take the Titans plus four and a half despite it being on the road and the bears do have a solid home field in terms of so Soldier Field um is that even what it's called anymore I don't know but that's how I know it but to me like Caleb Williams he's gonna get so much hype especially playing against a team that he's expected to beat you've got Keenan Allen you've got Roman dun you've got DJ Moore great weapons DeAndre Swift was added Cole KT all that stuff right but the Tennessee Titans did their thing as well this off season like let's not forget they added a new left tackle out of the draft and JC leam who should be Pro ready they added a top 10 Center in cushenberry they have a good left guard in Peter scony their really only weakness is right tackle so if Montes SWAT is rushing from the right that won't be too much of an issue but he's rushing from the left you know might be a little bit of an issue but the Bears don't have a potent fourman Rush other than sweat they don't have much to really deal with which means that they could probably slide protection towards sweat's side and the Titans offensive line with Callahan now coaching it should be greatly improved the Run game of the Titans I think is going to be a lot better than people expect thanks to the offensive line coaching but then the compliment of Pard and Spears on top of that will Levis is in his own right a bit of a rookie but he's also really talented this guy can throw the football he can really rip the ball and he's got a ton of receivers to throw to Calvin Ridley DeAndre Hopkins two comfortable veterans that should be able to make plays down the field even against the Bears secondary they've got an athletic tight end who can make yards after catch and Tyler over the middle who could be a security blanket that will already know the offense coming from the Bengals and Callahan being the new offensive coordinator and head coach for Tennessee defensively Tennessee is nothing special but they do have corners that actually can cover the Bears it's one of the rare teams that you look at and you say well Sneed can take on DJ Moore you know aier can take on romad dun and mccre could match up with Keenan Allen and overall that's not bad matchups across the board on top of that Jeff Simmons and Harold Landry will give this offensive line that could be a bit shaky early in the year and Caleb Williams holding on the ball a couple issues right like Caleb's a young player he's never going to really have that NFL experience at that level of that speed so he's probably going to have to take a little time to get some feet under him and get you know his feet wet a little bit so to me I like Tennessee here with the four and a half because this is more of a game to me that could be 50/50 then I think the odds are implying here so that's why I like four and a half here the Washington commanders at the Tampa Bay Bucks I would take the home team the Bucks minus three and a half I think the commanders are arguably the worst team in the NFL and arguably the worst roster in the NFL they don't have much of a pass rush and I think they're outgunned on the offensive line front and the defensive line front from Tampa Bay I think that Tampa's offensive Line's going to be greatly improved thanks to their new rookie Center Graham Barton I like their tackle Duo quite a bit especially Tristan wors and I think Baker Mayfield is the sub substantially better quarterback in this game against rookie Jaden Daniels who I expect to struggle against Todd bus who is a nightmare for young quarterbacks because he brings pressure from all angles he's dropping people left he's spitzing people right he's dropping right he's dropping the D tackle vitaa guy coming right up the a gap in in Levante David you don't really know where that pressure is coming from he's really good against mobile quarterbacks like Jaylen Herz in the past he'll give jayen Daniels a lot of problems like Daniels plays a lot like Hertz where he's pocket or he's scramble he's not really an extender of plays he's a runner or he's a thrower and that's going to be a problem against Tampa like I said I think the Bucks have you know really good like middle of the- field tacklers you talk about Whitehead Winfield David you talk about the interior rush they could get with Vita vea and also a cany against a smaller type of quarterback you've got I think just overall like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL like that is a terrible matchup so to me I just think Tampa is way better than the commanders and they're at home and this is not a good matchup on paper for them in the first ever game of the Dan Quinn Cliff Kingsbury Jaden Daniels ERA this is not a good matchup so to me I like the Bucks quite a bit and the final game I would consider betting for week one is the 49ers minus 5 a half over the Jets I do like the Jets I think they'll be a good team this year but playing on the road in the west coast when you're going from the East to the West against the 49ers in a prime time setting on Monday night after the Niners are coming off a Monday night or they're coming off I should say a Super Bowl loss and they want to get that you know taste out of their mouths for a new Fresh season they're largely the same team with very similar players on offense and defense they have very little to deal with in terms of chemistry and understanding of scheme and system there's a few players here and there that will have to get up caught up to speed really on defense maybe like Leonard Floyd or Malik Collins or potentially one of their corners but overall like the Niners are going to have everybody that is really there from the Super Bowl their whole offense is intact they're going to be a well-oiled machine now the Jets do have an excellent defense that could keep this one competitive but when you're talking about the Niners offense this is ners at home not in New York in perfect conditions in early September with a potent Run game that could keep them balanced that Kyle Shanahan has all offseason to prepare for his buddy's defense that he knows better than maybe his buddy does right this is Shanahan who purposely hired Robert Salah because he was impressed with Robert salah's defense out of Seattle and he wanted that similar approach and similar defense and this is Shanahan right like he studies these defenses better than anybody he finds holes imag you know remember last year when they attacked and they destroyed the Steelers in Pittsburgh now imagine this against the Jets a team that offensively they've got a a disaster class of an offensive coordinator and hackit they've got a old quarterback coming off in Achilles that's going to be kind of nervous going to have Jitters he's playing his hometown team that he never does well against it's on money Night Football and I just don't think he's going to be comfortable against Nick Boza with this offensive line I don't think he's going to be comfortable facing the Niners and that defense and the speed of that defense and Fred Warner in the middle and huanga back flying around so to me the ners just feel like a team that in week one is prepared to play they're going to be ready to go they're going to be riled up and you do not want to get them in a Monday Night Football Prime Time type of setting so this was just made for the Jets to lose this game I don't really understand why they put this in this spot in week one but man I I mean scen of the crime type stuff for Aaron Rogers I think that's a tough test in week one those are my favorite picks and favorite spreads of week one early you know we we're sitting here July the second recording this and I I feel like I would bet on all those games I don't know about you but let me know in the comments let me know your favorite pick of week number one so far grank Spike the like button don't forget to subscribe we'll see you in the next video it's Mitch deuces