BMW Championship Round 4 DFS Preview + Live chat : Draftkings Showdown, Underdog + Prize Picks Props

e e e e e [Music] n [Music] golf fans it's your boy GS Luke here with our round four live stream for the BMW Championship going to break down the prop and Showdown side of things to make sure you're ready for all of your exposure out there tomorrow so if you have any questions just let me know down in the live chat but we'll touch on the weather some of my top DFS plays some prop targets towards the end as we usually do but hopefully you're having a fantastic Saturday got a little ginger rail over here so just having ourselves a little bit of a cool evening but hopefully you're having a fantastic time yourself and ready to get after it for tomorrow I saw a few listeners a few people in the community went out there and took down a few contests today so hopefully you guys had some luck for your round three results yourself and are ready to get after it out there for Sunday so I can see we already got a comment down there from Phil says yo what's up Luke you see the D Tree climb from the abyss I did and there were actually a few people that had rounds like that so your boy H also got those five birdies yeah and he actually had the best off the tea day that he's had in like two three months so we'll talk about H later I don't want to spoil too much but hopefully you're having a fantastic evening and uh are ready to talk about all this stuff but before we get into all the nitty-gritty look at the weather talk about the golf course from today let's first off mention our presenting sponsor of the live stream which of course are our friends over there at the shipet nation which are your source for all your needs with DFS which Speaking of about two minutes ago we had an MMA slate lock and that's exactly where I got my projections from I went over there took the projections from the shipit site also had a little bit of a peek at the stone that they have up there for MMA and then went over to my Optimizer and got building on lineups I don't spend that much time with my process a few weeks ago just about 20 30 minutes of lineup building time went out there and took me a 12 Grand takedown so obviously would love to run that back out there for tonight and on the live stream last week right mentioned that out there on the stream so maybe if I talk about it again we'll go out there have that same kind of luck the guys over there at the shipit nation are great they're what I use for some of my other sports like MMA where I'm not such an expert on it right I'm more of a casual fan and if like yourself you find yourself as more of a casual fan of a sport well they have got you covered with all of that analysis so check them out if you haven't already code Luke 10 will give you a discount off any membership and uh yeah hopefully we can get a little sweat going with our MMA lineups we'll probably missed the first fight or two because we're on live stream here but uh those are the fights that aren't that exciting anyway so hopefully when we get off here we're in a decent position heading forward and uh can take a few things down and let's started off with a look at the golf course so golf course today qu played quote unquote easier out there in the afternoon but I would attribute the difference in scoring average much more to the talent level of players out there in the first half versus the second half of tea times especially because it was a limited sample size with 48 players so you can see right it looks like it played nearly an entire stroke easier but in reality conditions were actually maybe even a little bit harder in the afternoon with the higher winds and also the firmer greens so you heard the commentators talking about that how the golf course was playing much faster out there in the afternoon and out there into sun I think you're going to see that Trend continue the morning tomorrow is probably going to play at least like a stroke overpar with all the slappies that are you know going out there and ejecting out there in a Sunday you know they don't have much to play for they're all going to be very aggressive so I think you're going to see some really ugly scores out there in the first hour or two of tea times whereas the second half of a whole lot to play for some of them playing for their FedEx Cup life some of them trying to win a Tour event for the first time and knew you know who long you KN who knows how long at some points and I'm talking about you Adam Scott right Keegan Bradley players like that that haven't been there for quite some time those kind of players are going to score a lot better tomorrow so I think you're going to see the same kind of differential uh not to spoil the weather too much but it's not like the conditions later are necessarily going to be easier so if we go ahead sort this by ceiling score today you'll see what I'm talking about so sure you're Xander te off a little bit later I mean even guys like a Windam out there let's see who else I guess Keegan a Rory I guess uh Tommy Fleetwood also had a little bit of later tea time but you had your max grzan shoot a minus 6 and that was a bogey-free minus 6 round you guys like Billy hoe that started at one overp par get a few guys out here like a cam young even a Denny McCarthy right who we talked up on the live stream last night were all guys that went out there and scored with an earlier tea time though so even though you had this differential right the reason why I want to point this out is that you still had some early starters that went off and played well those receptive greens the more pristine green without all the blemishes on them can make a difference and when you're playing out there is a little bit more you know Freedom right you're not playing with as much tension out there towards the lead you can also go out there and have a round like you had there with Max graser so I think that that's something to point out especially when we have to consider placement points for tomorrow and people are going to be tempted just to jam in the top end of the board especially when I tell you right that it looks like pretty flat weather here in a second you're going to be like oh but I want to take all of those placement points the reason I show you this is you know the graser for tomorrow that random guy that's starting early that shoots like minus five minus 6 you're going to have to have the take down those large field gpps somebody like a SE straa would have been real nice to have right of course Somebody That I Used out there for today's Showdown a Denny would have been real nice to have in lineup uh you get the idea right A lot of these earlier guys that were much lower owned were keys to go out there and take down those big contests so I think that's still going to be a factor um even with those placement points in play you're going to to get a few early guys that crack the slate and you're probably going to have to have them out there in your lineups speaking of the weather though let's go over here to the Sunday forecast where you can see just like it was today you can see some winds out there in the morning close to like 9 to maybe 10 miles hour of sustained wind and then it drops for maybe 3 four hours towards the middle and then at the very end of the day the wind gusts go back up also your sustained winds go up there a little bit um get into that 15 to 20 mph range um which means it's going to be pretty flat overall right so if you're an early starter you're going to get some win there early but maybe it lays down for like the last hour or two of play out there and then towards the afternoon if you're a later starter maybe your first hour or so of play is going to be in relatively calm conditions but by the time you're finishing your round uh it looks like it's going to pick up again so I would say that maybe the best players would be guys that are teeing off just before it gets calm out there so maybe like a 910 a.m. local tea time would be a pretty solid time to go off as you're going to be going off when it's starting to calm down uh out there with the slightly calmer conditions then maybe it starts to pick up just a little bit towards the end of Your Action um or or maybe like 10 11 right so like if you could be in this like eight to maybe 10 range out there in a tea time there's a world if this exact forecast ends up being accurate where that could end up being like a micro Edge right something like 0.1.2 shots that you're getting there but I think you're trying to do too much if you're playing a complete weather Edge tomorrow so um as I was just saying I think it's relatively flat out there for tomorrow's action which means it's going to be a much more traditional slate where you still got to take some Game Theory into consideration right you still got to try and find a few diamonds of the rough that go off and shoot something like minus three minus four in the morning wave but because placement points are a thing and you can't ignore them even in the large field GBP you're still going to have to take some guys towards the top of the leaderboard ideally probably the winner at least maybe one two other guys that are finishing in the top five to seven to go out and take down your largest field contest so I think it's going to be a good mix of maybe taking a few shots on some mid to early starters and then trying to find pieces of chalk that you make conviction play so unfortunately it's not one where it's a real clear weather situation where um maybe the early starters and jamming them in is a good idea because the weather is a little bit more flat this time there's going to be some importance on mixing in guys towards the top end of the board so personally I'm going to have at least three of those guys uh that is three guys in the top 10 out there in every single lineup if not four players starting towards the top end of the board and part of that is because I don't see a big weather difference between the morning and the afternoon and also because I know that there are spots that I can mix in at lower ownership uh with either three four spots in my lineup sorry two three spots out there in my lineup to go out there and get that differentiation so that's how I'm handling it a lot of 33s a lot of 42s out there with my builds for tomorrow and uh not very atypical right for what we see on a Sunday Showdown slate that is uh usually how I approach things unless we get some super wacky weather situation or maybe the top end of the board is going to be uh the guys that you have to play from the weather situation or the exact opposite right where they're getting the real short end of the stick if that's the case sometimes I'll adapt a little bit right sometimes I'll go like four guys going off early um really take that uh differentiation approach if those guys are going to get a weather advantage and then sometimes you have to be a little bit more chalky than you'd like if those guys are getting the better end of the stick unfortunately or maybe fortunately I guess depending on how you're looking at this slate uh it's going to be a little bit more flat throughout the day so that's all for the weather wanted to give its due diligence out there for a few minutes but let Circle back to the DFS side now and uh talk through some strategy out there for tomorrow which if there's anything for Sunday Showdown that you should be incorporating it's line of construction in its Game Theory uh everyone's going to be targeting some placement points uh I think we're past the days now where people don't know about that aspect of the scoring and if anything people overcount that sometimes in their projections um the only play guys that are starting up there in the top five top 10 and that's not necessarily the optimal strategy out there in your Sunday Showdown you're going to have to have bits and pieces like I just got done saying but having a few early starters for some Leverage is going to be key as well so we're going to go through a few conviction plays a few flag plants per se that I'm using at 40 maybe even 50 60% of my lineups and then on the flip side we're also going to talk about the guys that I'm mixing in for some leverage that I'm probably not using as much probably closer to like 15 20% on some of my leverage plays what I'm doing there is trying to get different right taking calculated gambl on guys that are maybe further down the board maybe not playing as well over the first three days that can hopefully go out there and pull graser like what you had for today's round or go out there pull a sha pull a McCarthy go out there and shoot a low score and that's how you go out there and take something down so so you're going to have to try and find that you're going to have to try and find your conviction plays and I'll give you my reasoning so we're going to talk about some plays doesn't mean you have to play them right always going to give this disclaimer before we hop on into things but what I hope to show you guys here with this stream is what to look for in players right what I'm using to make my conviction plays and if you agree with any of the things that I'm doing with any of the players that I point out for that matter that be all means right go out there and Implement them yourselves but more so just trying to spitball ideas right trying to give you guys a little bit of perspective heading into building lineups uh so you can go out there and do better job so if there's any players you want my take on don't be shy at all to go ahead throw those down in live chat um or any specific processed race questions I'll go over all of those for you um any player pull stuff I don't love questions of like oh are you playing this guy sort of thing uh if you need to choose between a few guys right I'll give you pros and cons for either option uh if you need an idea of like you know a few decent options out there in a certain range right I'll give you maybe a few ideas but uh yeah let's try and keep the questions more so to like questions about a player maybe a player's form that sort of thing as opposed to like who do I play right that sort of thing so let's catch up on chat though what's going on Hamza um got scared to fade today won't doubt again um You Wish nor would have hit some more Fairways yeah you and me both what's going on Hamza says is the rain is it gonna rain overnight no it doesn't look like it it's going on ke already Luke who is boat racing into the top 10 not sure K I have a few guys I think that might do it but uh you'll have to choose from the list that we go through uh if I had a crystal ball I would tell you man what's going on Stephen good evening all let's ride into round four Amen to that pendri the best player the last two days yeah you couldn't argue with it especially yesterday um had that super low round so yeah I think he's a decent option uh on a pretty unfamiliar course how do I differentiate between a guy that has it figured out versus Lux act there's no way to figure that out right I think the best way is to look at shots gain metrics to see who's doing it most sustainably I would say that Adam Scott I guess you could have seen round the round coming from today right him going out there and kind of giving away some Strokes because he had gained like five Strokes putting or actually I think it was like six Strokes putting over the first two rounds I would say it's tough to do you can never know for certain out there but the one thing that we usually count on when trying to determine if someone's getting lucky right maybe just going out there playing above their Baseline is to look at how they're hitting the ball if they've gone out there it's been approach play off the T play then I don't know if I can count on them not doing that that again because that's the most sustainable portion of a player's golf game um under pressure sometimes that changes but uh in general that's the most reliable aspect of golf so I would say that and then round four success right who's done it on Sunday before particularly on Sunday when they're in contention are probably the guys that aren't fulls gold what's going on Antonio hopefully you're having a solid time yourself where's the dude that said he went today he should he should have came back with info yeah right I asked him about the greens of not hopefully he's around I'm assuming he might be heading home because they did just finish play like an hour hour and a half ago but more importantly I hope he had fun out there it's uh it looks like an absolute blast on TV Golf Course is the star of the show this week um so yeah hopefully he enjoyed it out there let's talk about what I'm doing for this slate so um up top is usually where I make my conviction plays and these first two players are going to be my flag plants up top they're by far the highest owned players that I plan on getting to and in a lot of lineups I'm going to be going Xander then aerg as my second man in so I guess let's start with Xander I'll handle them one at a time but $11,100 he's minus 7 he's in Prime position to potentially even win this golf tournament and I think even if he doesn't win but he shoots something like minus five minus 6 first off it's going to be a top three finish I feel pretty confident about saying that and then also minus five minus 6 might be one of the better rounds of the day now is that a guarantee obviously not he's got to go out out there have a hell of a performance to go out there and do that sort of thing but Xander's definitely trending in that direction he's first two days was kind of sketchy was just kind of hanging around not doing very much I guess round two of back nine right really went in the wrong direction but then today snapped out of it went out there shot a 66 and honestly tomorrow I'm expecting to see a lot more of the same of the guys up top he's clearly the best player when it comes to the form um Scotty of course right next count level guy up there right he's it's him and Xander when it comes to Talent level lately but with form it's clearly Xander schafle and in terms of placement points he's got a lot more potential for that top three top five than a lot of the other players up there so though he's chock I you know you get that right that's like 35 to 40% ownership you don't have to get different with your spend up options if you're going to take on some ownership if you're going to take on a guy that's like 30 to 40% owned they better be like a 91k player they shouldn't be a 7 8K player um you'll get a few really egregiously chalky players out here on this kind of Sunday Showdown slate um you're going to get that up top for a lot of different slates especially Sunday Showdown but if there's a spot to take that kind of ownership it would be with somebody like isander shafley that being said he doesn't have to be the option that you use up here but if you're going to use somebody you're expecting minus five minus six so a Scotty shuffler a Rory's in play heck even a con more cabba a Victor hin to be more than usable out there on Sunday but you're pretty much asking everyone to do the same thing right it's not like Xander's going to get there by shooting minus four and like finishing in fifth you need these guys to go out there and shoot minus five minus 6 and personally I feel a lot better about Xander going out there and having that sort of round that anyone else in this range it's not just the talent level um a lot of it has to do with how he's actually playing at this golf course so part of it's the caddy Austin Kaiser is known for first off he's used to play at elevation out there when he was playing college golf um they said something on the broadcast today about how he has like some specific formula that has worked for years out there at elevation so I don't know maybe it's part of that with Xander right part partially narrative based but more than anything I think he's just playing some really good golf and I'll take him at that kind of ownership Al gobear $9,600 he's minus 10 out there he's 36.4% um the sort of player that you know I'm expecting to go out there be aggressive you heard in his post round interview today that he played the exact kind of round that he was hoping for and that's to be aggressive live with your mistakes right he even said he's okay with making Bogies around this golf course as long as he's going out there and filling it up with birdies and out there on Showdown just as they said out there with Xander it's not so much that you could just go out there and lean on placement points you need guys to go out there and score and if oar's objective is to go out there and be as aggressive as humanly possible that that is the ideal situation or ideal mindset to have to go out there and score a lot of DraftKings fantasy points so when we're playing Showdown when we're playing a format that requires us to have the highest fantasy score to win not always just the best score right A lot of times I mean if he shoots minus three tomorrow but makes eight n birdies we're going to be thrilled with that kind of performance and when he's telling us word for word tells the camera gets asked about it it says yes that is exactly what I'm trying to do then I'm going to go out there and use the guy for Sunday Showdown so we know he's going to be aggressive he's primed for some placement points as well so just like a Xander even though he's going to be one of the highest owned players on the Slate I'd rather take my shots on guys up top like that and uh give myself a chance for some placement points up there too where I don't like to take chalk would be on an Adam Scott right he's also going to be like 30% plus owns he's overpriced now at $9,300 he's also going to be super mega chalky I'd rather be an oar that you could argue was actually even too cheap at $9,600 than somebody that's overpriced and still has that ownership another example of a fade would be Alex noren right I'm not going to play him who's probably too expensive at $8,400 and also like 25% owns and Keegan Bradley another one that I'm not playing out there tomorrow because being towards the top or in the case of Keegan right being at the top of the leaderboard is not enough to just make you a play you've still got to go out there and score and the fact that he's carrying about 36% ownership makes him a fade right there's a difference between playing 50 60% of somebody like a a norn a Bradley or an Adam Scott and then playing 60% Xander right 60% Xander you don't but bad an eye right like okay sure yeah I'll play 60% Xander um Oar same thing I mean sure he's maybe a little bit sketchier on Sundays uh track record for OAR and contention has been a little bit of a train wreck lately so maybe you don't feel as good about him as you would with isander schalley but either way with these two players as compared to some of the other guys that are more expensive um you can see why I have a lot more confidence getting to them conviction play so you're going to have to pick your spots I choose to take it on guys that have shown in the past that are some of the best players in the field and in those other spots right I know that I don't have him on here so you can't see that he's down there as a fade but yeah I'm not playing Adam Scott you can see I'm not playing Alex norn and uh same thing um out there with Keegan Bradley let's see any questions so we got a question from Evan he says for an outright what is the lowest number that I would still consider so you're thinking minus 7 is still live so what is uh Windam Clark is Windam Clark minus 7 so yeah I would say minus 7 and better because I think if anyone's gonna chase down minus 12 it's somebody like Windom clerk maybe it's minus six I mean if you're minus six like a pendri um can't L believe is minus five right yeah he's minus5 $9,500 you'd have to have like a 62 to go out there and win I mean you have to think that between Oar Adam Scott Keegan that somebody is going to shoot like minus three um if not like minus four minus five out of those three players I know it's going to be tough it's going to be pretty windy towards the end of the day so maybe not maybe maybe it's like at least they go out there shoot like minus two minus three if they're going to shoot minus three let's put that at like winning score like 15 16 under par if you're minus S I mean even that's like a 63 so yeah I think m 7 is probably the right answer um anything worse so anything like a minus5 coming back to win or a minus 6 would require a lot of help from the top end of the board now today you got that right Adam Scott came back to the field um even guys like Keegan made a bunch of mistakes or else he would have been like minus seven minus eight on his round you got the help out there for round three I don't know if you can count on that out there for Sunday but yeah that the to answer your question minus 7 in most cases maybe minus 5us 6 Stephen says how do I feel about seu who is currently 33rd in the FedEx Cup you think you want to look at guys around the 30 Mark well yeah so I guess I'll Circle back and I'll answer this now so I've been I've talked about this the last few days out there for Showdown but the same thing applies players that are still Al to make it to East Lake are almost all the guys that I'm considering in fact there's going to be one guy towards the exact bottom of the pricing that I'm using that isn't going to be live out there for East Lake every other player I'm using and I mean quite literally every other player that I have in my player f for Sunday Showdown has at least a realistic chance to make East Lake and if they're not like a guy that's on the border of trying to make it they're guys that are already into East Lake and there's a few reasons for that obviously the guys that are already into East Lake are playing for positioning out there for the next round but the guys that have a chance at least have some hope to go out there and try they're going to be engaged from poll number one if they start like birdie birdie you bet your ass that they're going to be out there trying to score the best they can the guys down here that have literally zero chance in fact I'd say the guys from like JT post and down like these like one percenters are certainly like the guys that are under 0.1% over here these kind of players I'm just not interested in using out there for tomorrow so um yeah I think that there is a motivation factor to include um I don't know if I would like boost the guys that are just outside the top 30 but I think more than anything it's trying to avoid the players that have nothing to play for in fact you can see of the guys that have nothing to play for uh graser actually played well today so I don't know if it's a spot there you have to go out there and like cross off these players but gravan cam young I guess would be the two main examples of guys that still played well but it's not going to be that many that go out there and have a really good day right a majority of these guys when you see like plus threes down here plus ones for like joerger um Austin ekr sh a plus two like it it was pretty bad sling was prettyy tough sledding for most of these kind of guys but yeah I guess the gramman is the the real big one the real big outlier there but I would say he could have seen grer coming because he was heading out by himself not so much the cam young one though cam young he had nothing to play for and he played well so good for him at least you're frankly baffled by this norn performance the only thing I could see for seeing this kind of performance Antonio would be that noren has won twice on the DP World Tour when they play the Swiss elves so just the same event by the way that Matt Fitzpatrick has won before that he's played very well at when he hasn't won over there in that side of the pond those two players and Fitz hasn't done this week so obviously narrative doesn't always end up working out but yeah other than that I'm I'm with you on that it was uh he his form has dropped off quite a bit from where it was early in 2024 but good I have to say good for him he's a longtime journeyman he's earned it he's been grinding out FedEx Cup playoff for how many years at this point and I think if he finishes top three he makes it to East Lake I I don't think he has to win to make it the whole way but uh I guess let me double check on that real quick we'll get a good idea by this percentage so he's got a 67% chance so yeah I think he has to finish T3 or better to go out there and make it hopefully he does because uh I don't know to go out like this right to be up there in the top 30 with one round to go that'd be a that'd be a pretty devastating way to go out all right let's talk about a few few more guys I'm getting to so let me bring the comment off here and uh let's keep this thing rolling so we've talked about a few Fades now I'm going to talk about somebody that's a little bit lower owned and I'll stress the little bit lower owned because it's not like Windam Clark at 21.2% it's really going to get you any leverage but I guess comparatively we we're comparing them to a 36% o doar or nearly 40% Xander I guess there's a little bit of Leverage when you put it in that kind of light but what I like about Windam is how he is playing round two he couldn't make a putt he still went out there made a bunch of birdies today was the exact same thing he gained in all three tto green categories but lost Strokes with the putter which is just bizarre world out there for Windom Clark right normally TAA green can be a little bit sketchy a little bit inconsistent from day to day the putter is normally what he's he's bread and butter right relies on it round to around goes out there just gains a bunch of Strokes to the field rounds two and three has not had the magic wand what I like about Windam is that he's giving us the kind of te to Green stats that we need out there on Sunday just needs to go out there and get that magic flat stick so I'm going to go back to him he's a guy that I always use in Showdown because of his immense Pryer better upside and at minus s you know I have an outright ticket on him I'm definitely not counting on him to win this thing but it would be quite something for the hometown kid to go out there finally get that putter to work I mean if he hits the ball that he has the last two days goes out there and gains three Strokes putting that's a the minus eight round right there and in fact I've done this a few times on Sundays I have one of these like real gut feelings about a player I've got a a sneaking suspicion and the last time I said this a guy went out there one by the way was guy named Scotty Sheffer by the way I went out there and won the Olympics the last time I made this kind of call but Windam clerk is at least going to sniff the lead out there tomorrow that would be my bold hot take out there for tomorrow's round is that I think Windam Clark is at least going to make a run at it and if he's going to I mean look where he's starting right minus S I know we had somebody asked about that minus s score before first off lucky number seven maybe there's something to that but if he gets anywhere close to that lead it means he makes a ton of birdies that means he's probably making at least six seven birdies on the round which is what we're looking for in showdowns so I think in showdowns probably the best way to take advantage of it again the the outright to actually go out there and win would probably be too farfetched starting at that kind of score but if he gets into the mix you're going to want to have him out there in fantasy and that's why I'm playing him right I think he's got a decent shot to go out there and do so he's hitting the ball well enough to go out there and shoot something low so why not go out there and and try and take one of the streakiest putters that we have out there in the PGA Tour we'll move past this range but you can see I'm avoiding some of the chalk and guys like an Alex nort and Keegan Bradley so I guess it'd be worth pointing out guys I'm actually playing in this range so sjm potentially usable for some upside uh he didn't have the best round three but you know maybe he can turn it around out there for round four I'm also potentially looking at guys like a Nick Dunlop reason I why i' like Dunlop by the way is it's not like he's had a flashy week but now he is $7,700 it's not like he's up there in the top five to start so it's not like a lot of people are going to have their eyes drawn to him right especially because he's a lot more expensive than what he was for main slate but the kid still nearly won last week he's coming in with some of the best form in the field right he just won like a month ago out there on the PGA tour uh and he plays well at these style of golf courses I don't know what it is it at tough courses I thought he was really going to struggle out there his first season on tour he's actually excelled at some of the harder tracks that he's played so I like the Ben POA numbers I like the way that he's played so far this week right minus five pretty impressive over the first three rounds in the ownership I know we don't have them on here like I said I just wanted to point out maybe a few options that were in this range the opt the uh ownership's not crazy out there Nick Dunlop so definitely an option you can use for some leverage there where we at sath was a showdown anchor got it run it back tomorrow you make your own decisions out there Edward uh you seemingly got burned by him yesterday and want to blame somebody for it so yeah I'm going to let you do your own thing then man Antonio says classic Rory non-competitive rounds one and two will backd door top five I could see that Antonio uh I have to say that would fit the script out there from what we've seen but he's uh he's all over the place he actually hasn't played horribly this week you can see actually in terms of like their top end scores he's like the second towards the top right so he's playing better than moraba a lot better than Scotty is playing better than Victor havin too so yeah kind of just like plugging along he's never going to have a chance to win right of course starting at minus5 but if he goes out there and he has like a minus5 round Bo right he's up there in that top five so yeah dude that would be really unbranded that's for sure's going on Antonio you truly hate laying minus odds out there for a placement bet but X being minus 115 to finish top five is disrespectful oh I agree on that one because I don't see him moving down the leaderboard I mean something like three four under par is pretty much what I'm expecting from Xander uh now not that that is going to happen 100% but based on how he's playing based on how he's looked on Sundays lately I mean you'd have a hard time thinking he's not not going to go out there and at least put a decent performance together I'm not saying great but he's probably at least going to have a pretty good day out there uh yeah minus 115 top five I mean one minus 115 by the way is like pretty much them giving you even money out there on the sports book I don't know if I'd be that much against that I think that's a decent bet let's keep this going so in terms of guys here in the 7K range I wanted to point out Justin Thomas is still playing for his FedEx Cup life now a lot of this comes down to other players but even with that JT if he has a low rounds can pretty much guarantee himself into the top 30 so I would expect to see him battle a little bit uh you could say the same thing about Jason day he's also on that precipice of going out there and making it to East Lake so these sort of players that you know are going off super early a lot of them I have a hesitation to play because of the whole motivation Factor the ones that I'm choosing to take a shot on just like we had for yesterday and it's a lot of the same players because that's situation has not changed a whole lot from round to round I'm taking the shot on the guys that I know are going to give a damn tomorrow because the worst thing to have happen would be to have somebody go out there just par hole number one right maybe they hit it green side they can't get it up and down and then they go you know what all right today's not my day go out there rest of the round or like plus two they last 17 holes I want the guy that's going to go out there like a JT he goes out there he doesn't birdie number one he goes damn I'm I'm I'm Number 30 on the FedEx cut rankings like I have to play for the next 17 holes and that aren't just going to go out there and completely quit so I think Jason day right Justin Thomas who were pointing out here is the play right now these sort of players and you can see I only have them at like 3.4% they're essentially going to be unowned because of their positioning on the leaderboard and if they happen to go out there and get a little something cooking they're the kind of player that is going to stay on top of that so um there are not that many that I'm playing right these sort of players are like seven to 15 percenters out there in my player pool so it's not even like when I'm getting exposure there like I'm going too far over the field but yeah I like myself a little bit of JT next up we got Brian Harmon you see Brian Haron about 11% ownership so it's not like he's being completely under owned but compared to some of the mega chock in this range it's a it's a good ownership number it's reasonable he's a little bit higher owned than the average for sure but he also has placement Point potential there at minus four if he shoots something like minus four minus five he's not likely the top five but this top 10 placement points are well within reach maybe not for shortle Brian Harman you might have to you know get on a step stool or something like that to go out there and reach the top 10 but with his shots gained approach and his shots gained off the T so far I think that he's got the sustainable kind of shots gained skill set that I'm looking for in a player down low so $6,900 you know we can make the jokes how we W about his height and whatnot but playing some pretty solid golf at a golf course that I didn't really think would fit his game Tom hogi by the way if you're looking for shots gained approach he is the number one player in the field when it comes to shots gained approach per round unfortunately just can't buy a putt for his life this week so out there in rounds four he starts at minus5 by the way so um is carrying a little bit of ownership they're at 14.6% but just like a Brian Harman it's not anything outrageous at that sort of number he's playing solid Golf and has that placement Point potential he shoots something like minus four minus5 he's going to get into that top 10 maybe close to that like top seven top five which is what I'm looking for in some of these 6K range players players so and both by the way are very alive to go out there to make it to East Lake I Believe Ryan Haron had like a 67% chance I believe Tom hogi is around like an 80% chance to go out there and make it to East Lake so both know that they've got to play solid golf to go out there and make the top 30 so expect them to again stay on top of that right to not go out there and quit even if they have a little bit of a sluggish start and then the last player I'll point out here is the only guy and I I truly mean this out of my entire player Poll for tomorrow he is the only player I'm using that is not safe or not at least not in consideration to go out there and go to East Lake and it is maxom and there's a reason why with maxom here he had his first round and I you not on this guys his first round in two months where he gain Strokes off the T and what he's done all week is he's been unbelievable with the irons in fact all four rounds he is top five in the field when it comes to shots gained approach so he's plus six right he's a top five iron player Maybe he found something off the tea today because I was tracking his entire front nine and he hit every single Fairway and in fact I think it was to like whole 12 when he went out there and missed his first Fairway and then he saw the the bogey come in bunches so he definitely fell apart a little bit he's definitely a lowf floor player but if there's anyone out there that is out of it and is still gonna at least kind of care tomorrow it's Max H he's broken he's heard the chatter from people I mean he's even talked about it in some of the small interviews that he's had he wants to go out there and figure out what the hell is going on with the golf swing that hope that and I don't think we had any bits from him from the golf course today but that hope that he found off the te is I'm sure gonna fire him up to go out there and try and play some golf because that's been the issue the last two months the guy cannot find a fairway for his life I mean he's been hitting water balls he's been hitting a ball OB seemingly like every single round and today he was not only accurate but he was getting that normal distance off the te if he can do that he hits the irons like he has for the first three rounds and today by the way he lost like four strokes putting too so so that certainly didn't help him out there with the score but he hits the ball and then he goes out there and somehow gain Strokes putting truly his iron play is good enough and the off the T play was good enough today where he could go out for a nuclear nuclear round now we haven't said that for a long time about H in fact it's probably been like three months right since since we've said that this kind of potential is there for him but it's enough where I'm just going to use them I I it's a low floor play he could certainly just not care because he has no chance to make it to East Lake but I have at least personally I think that there's enough there to to say that he maybe cares a little bit more than most so you don't have to agree with that you can avoid him all you want I get it he's a 6K player he's somebody who has nothing to do with his own destiny this week it's more so that you know just looking at the shots gain metrics right trying to find a reason to get behind the guy and U he found something with the off the te play today so he's only 7. 4% which by the way is actually higher than some of the other guys down here I've got guys like Jagger pavon at like sub 4% so there are some real leverage options down here in the 6K range the ones that are getting a little bit more steam be guys like a sep straa I've got him at like 15% a Shane Lowry's a little bit over 11 12% himself uh AIU Kim is like 15 16% owned he's a 7K range player though it's all The Usual Suspects up there towards the top end of the leaderboard so that's what we'll say about the guys that I'm getting to right hopefully you get an idea of what I'm looking for and players and the sort of things that I'm using in my process to go out there and select my player pool um there were things I was looking for to avoid guys right a lot of the guys that were overpriced were players that I was avoiding and then with trying to find my flag plants was a lot of ball striking stats right it was a lot of trying to find guys that I think can move up that leaderboard and uh hope that gives you an idea of some of that process that I Implement so let G get a sip of this let's catch up on chat and uh figure out what we're doing wow fight canceled on UFC let me see what fight it is because uh that could be great it could be horrible that's for sure raasa versus Fletcher H interesting I think I had uh think I had a little bit of that fight but I don't think that one's the end of the world for me what's going on Stephen what do we do about Fleetwood we figured out the flat stick today but ball striking was worse so I would say that that's a good sign that he found the flat stick I actually thought about making making him a highlighted play I'm using him out there for tomorrow so I guess just uh to make it full transparency right there but he found something with the Putter and the last like three four events he's been bleeding Strokes on the greens like every single day so the fact that he found something I think is great uh the ball striking falling off for a single round I don't think is the end of the world but rather I do think that that is a lot of optimism going forward and if he can continue that get back to the ball striking it's a it's a very decent spot to be in what FedEx cut projection number is my cut off for guys I'm playing there's not a FedEx cut number that I'm cutting off it's based on chance to go out there and make it to East Lake which I'm pulling off of the data golf site so well I'll show you that it's not a FedEx Cup number I'm looking at this category to the right which gives you their chance to make it to East Lake the green check means they're already in which is a guy that I would totally be fine playing but this percentage chance is the one that's a little bit more interesting if they have over let's say like a five to seven per chance to make it I I think that they're pretty live and uh I'm not Crossing anyone off right because obviously I'm still playing maxom and maxom has a0o per chance of making it to e like you can see over here literally 0.0% chance but uh yeah so using them so hopefully it gives you an idea there I think it's useful I don't think you have to live by it though if that makes sense Keegan isus 125 to have more than three and a half birdies you're thinking about betting that right now three and half half birdies that'll probably be lower than the field average I would say he's playing solid golf yeah I don't know if you could bet the under on that that's for sure the the over would be the lean I don't know if I'd get there myself just because of that Sunday pressure but he would definitely project over that that's for sure Hamza says how long till I can talk about prize picks and Underdog we'd be finished the stuff on DraftKings so and uh you say how long will that be probably like 10 15 minutes going on Tonio said thoughts on Kirk he has number 32 in the FedEx Cup right now so I'll base that off of his percentage chance to move on so Chris Kirk is at a 22% chance which is totally fine if you're using that as your narrative uh in general I think that Chris Kirk is a pretty average play All Things Considered you know he's at the P portion of the leaderboard where you could get some placement points so I think he has the upside for that uh ownership by the way is around like 10 11% so he's getting some steam but it's not like he's Mega chock down there towards the bot end to the board so there are guys personally that I think are just a little bit better plays in that range but he was one of the guys I was trying to decide between with trying to find guys down low he had the motivation he's at least in position to get some placement points it's just down to whether you think he's a better or worse play than some of the other guys that are cheap and also like minus three minus four so personally not my favorite play but he was at least in consideration that's for damn sure all right let's go over here to DraftKings and and uh build a lineup or two together so now I'm just going to try and give you guys some insight into what I'm thinking about when building lineups which uh for Sunday Showdown a little bit different than what we had for days one and two so days one and two was more so about just making sure we're not going to duplicate oursel also making sure that we go out there and get some differentiation to move up leaderboards Sunday Showdown it's the same right you got to incorporate those two aspects but we also have to try and find some placement points so what I usually like to do out there in these lineups is try and find my flag plan so I'm going to go ahead just throw Xander into this lineup I'm also going to throw Oar into this lineup because like I said before a lot of my lineups are going to start with this combination they still got to shoot low it's not like I'm just counting on them getting those placement points these guys have got to go out there probably at least shoot minus three minus four to go out there and pay off but if I'm going to start a lineup with these two players I'm getting those placement points that I'm looking for and I kind of know where I got to get different right we've got four spots I need at least three players to get that differentiation um if not all four out there with my last four spots so we're going to go down to the bottom of the board now after taking our two flag plants and uh now we're going to handle the the differentiation and also some of the salary savings that we're going to have to find here so I'm going to throw in a Max H here so he's going to give us a lot of salary flexibility he's also going to give us a sub 10% owned player I'm also going to go up a little bit further and throw in at Tom hogi now Tom Hog's cheap but he isn't going to get us that different because he is like 15% owns So for our last two spots I want to take guys here that are probably sub 10 percenters and the reason why I say that is we have got a 33 percenter a 33 percenter out there with o Barrett as well maybe even 40% out there in Xander sofle um and then Tom Hog's 15% those three players right there are a big chunk of product ownership when you consider those three and because they're not going to get like any one percenters out there on a 48 player slate um you're going to have to really try and stretch to find some different differentiation so what we're going to do here with our last two spots is we're going to take guys that you like truly consider pivots so I'm going to throw in a Tony fale here who I've got it sub 15% and then for our last man in rather than spending all of our salary I'm going to leave $200 on the table and we're going to throw in an Aaron Rye so by leaving $200 I think that's going to help us out a little bit with trying to make sure that we don't duplicate herself and more importantly it's going to let us go from an $88,000 price tag in Taylor pendri who's going to be well over 10% ownership and let us take an Aaron Ry who I think projects the same if not better than pendrith given his insane form over the last two months and also a player that is playing for his FedEx Cup life he's a guy that's right on the border I think he's got like an 80 90% chance to go out there and make East Lake so he's going out there and making next week as long as he doesn't do anything stupid so we know that Aaron Ry is going to stay engaged we know that he has a lot of incentive to go out there and play well so this kind of lineup we've got leverage option there definitely a leverage option in maxom um I would say that guys like hogi to um Tom Tony fow I should say here aren't leverage plays but they're about average ownership and then uh two chalky guys right so as long as your lineup is like a two two2 where it's like two chalk two average two low owned guys you're probably going to get away with it out there in the larg Ville gppp now just to make sure right we went out there left that $200 on the table but uh this is how it's done out there in a large field gpp you've got some placement Point potential I'd say with at least three spots um if not like four if one of these guys goes really crazy out there um then you've also got spots where you're going out there just hoping that they go low um you're trying to get that placement Point potential you're trying to mix in a few of those nuclear low rounds and that's how your show Showdown lineup should look it shouldn't just be all guys starting in the top 10 it shouldn't all be just guys that are starting from behind when you're looking at your starting position over here um just make sure that it's a good mix of of best The Best of Both Worlds as some people would say so um let's go out there build another one you don't have to be as chalky towards the top end of the board but um that is how I'm building a lot of my lineups if you were to be a little bit chalkier towards like the middle and you let's say you like really liked um the pendrith of the world maybe you really like like a SEIU Kim down here um so let's just throw those two into a lineup if you're going to choose to take guys that are like 15 20% down there and I guess just for the sake of this I'm going to throw in an Alex noren too um starting in third also like an $8,400 piece of chalk I'm gon to be a little bit more hesitant to pair them with like Xander Schley or somebody like a l big go bear rather than that maybe this is where you go slightly lower owned right where you go a Victor havland who's going to be like sub 15% a Patrick KL he's going to be like 15% owned or even like a Windam Clark right down here at $9,200 who's not going to be like 35 to 40% owned but rather going to be about 20% so it's just all about you know giving and taking right you know having the uh the ability to adapt based on the kind of ownership that you already have in your lineup so you could throw him in I guess you get throw in like a a Tommy Fleetwood here and obviously this would be a very balanced sort of build but uh what I'm more so trying to point out is if you're going to take some chalk towards the middle you're not going to be able to take all that chalk towards the top and in fact you know if you went with that pend start you went with another guy down there in the 7K range that's like 15 to 20% it makes it almost impossible to mix him in with like a Xander or that sort of player up top so that's why I try to avoid a lot of those options out there in my kind of exposure and right why I would rather just splurge on my guys up top right even like a double spend up going with like Xander and oar because you're going to have the flexibility with the last three four spots if your cheap guys are already pieces of chalk well you could see how it'd be tough right to also include those guys up top so that's what I'll say about the lineup construction uh always right do what you want to do what you know your process is pointing to do what your gut is pointing to sometimes if that's something that you're going to rely on but uh that's my two cents on it and how I see this kind of slate if you were just here for DFS that is going to be all that we're doing here so in here in just like a minute going to go ahead and cycle over to the prop side of things going to take a look at some scoring averages as you'll see here on the screen also going to go through the underdog and prize pick board so if you guys are for that just stay tuned for all of that action but if you're just here for DFS that is all I've got for you guys this week best of luck with all of your exposure out there for tomorrow and the only thing I ask is that first off you go out there take down a gpp or two for me and also that you smash the like button before you hop on out of here well let's see if there's any last second questions if not we're going to talk about all sort of prop stuff now where we at so FanDuel was cooking with the props that is good thank you for the heads up by the way uh you know I'm always looking for that what's going on Antonio says uh hogi should legit try to use the long putter I think so too he hasn't been a horrible putter this year so maybe that's why he hasn't quite gone to that point but you know Glover obviously had a very good time with it you mentioned Wills out tus and Ricky Fowler you might be on to something hey the off season is the right time to try it so hopefully somebody that's close to him can try and get him one of those jailbird Putters uh maybe try and get him in contact with the head of Odyssey right so he can go out there and get a deal going or something because uh that'd be pretty sweet for him thanks Luke said appreciate you appreciate you Stephen best of luck tomorrow and did Bobby Max withdraw affect me yeah of course it did yeah so I played them for meain slate uh he wasn't a fixture out there in my Showdown exposure so I wasn't hurt there but yeah I played him in main slate but just like with Hideki I didn't play Hideki and mean sleep so I wasn't that worried about that one but even if I did it doesn't really rattle me all that much I've just seen it so much at this point and uh just like I said with h Dei they lose a whole lot more from withdrawing than we do uh I do have to say though it did look a little bit more suspect when McIntyre withdrew because I don't know I don't know if I buy the whole like mid round back pain obviously Hideki before the round you can buy him waking up right and having that kind of discomfort Robert McIntyre might have just said this I want some pints of beer with my boy home uh and went out there and just and left to go out there and have a good time but I could be wrong about that too he it might have actually been a back injury but yeah doesn't ruffle me either way they choose to do it they want they lose a lot more than we do on it so uh why hold it that much against them but let's talk about some prop stuff now so Golf Course played a lot harder now I thought it'd play a little harder I thought it'd be maybe like a half a stroke to maybe a stroke under par but it played only about a quarter of a stroke under par when it was all said and done and uh one thing to point point out here is that though the morning played a lot harder than the afternoon I don't think that conditions really reflected that I would say that it played pretty flat across the board if not actually slightly harder in the afternoon the reason why the scoring average was so different is because of the way they had tea time setup I mean normally right your early starters right are the guys starting from further behind but especially at a no cut event in just a 48 player field you're going to get that variance you're going to get a lot of really high scores with some of your early starters the guys that just don't give a right out there in the first two hours of tea times and those outliers heavily impact to this average in a in a 70 player field after the cut right you see that kind of variance anyways but in a 48 player field it's it's that on steroids right you get even more of that variance out there and the reason why I point this out is the morning wave guys I I think are decent Fades but it's not so much that I think they're going to have harder conditions it's that mental factor that I was talking about before and just like I mentioned yesterday I actually ended up using this for some of the props that I took are the guys that are out of it down here I think there's a really good case for taking their over on Bogies because it's not like they don't care about how they're playing it's just that they know that Bogies don't matter right they can go out there they can make some mistakes they can kind of just shake it off go oh well right it's not the end of the world it's not like it was going to help anyways but they are going to go after pins and try and make some birdies so I think the way that you would handle these lower tier players is that if you could find a really soft birdie projection I actually don't think it's the worst idea in human history is they're going to be playing on some really soft greens uh maybe slightly lower winds than what they're getting in the later afternoon but more importantly the over on Bogies would also make sense for some of these players um they're going after pins they're not really going to give a about what happens so they're going to see a few of them make some dumb mistakes so for props I think that there's going to be some anti-correlation that we could potentially go with because of this Dynamic with the early starters and a lot of these guys having no chance to make it to the next week so we're going to have to see how many of these players are even posted over there in Underdog or prize picks but I think that you have to treat that this portion of the board um the portion of guys that don't have a good chance to make it to next week a little bit differently than the rest of the board which would include any of these guys with a chance to make it to East Lake or of course anyone that is already locked in so just keep that in mind when we're looking at these stat averages as uh the mindset and the positioning of a player is a is something that I don't think you can ignore out there for tomorrow let me bring up Underdog I don't think they had the full board up before so let me refresh this and see if they've got to that looks like we have a more complete board than before at least more posted than what they had there looks like prize pick doesn't want to let me look at the board again so let me see if what worked the last two days works for trying to get that up over here here cuz uh I would like to look at a comparison between the two sites to try and figure out what we're going to do here uh Antonio mentioned that we did have some fandel wads so I'm going to go ahead and bring those up real quick and then Caesars the fandel posted that means that Caesars has their up too so it's go ahead and bring that up as well let me refresh this and show you guys what we're looking at so here's the Caesars board which we'll Circle back to here in a second and then here is that fandel board I still can't get prize picks to work which is uh that I I have no idea why it won't work I'm sure at some point they'll fix it but come on now it's just it's so annoying yeah whatever we we'll Circle back to prize piix here in a few minutes when hopefully it'll load for us but these odds so they've got 71 and a half on norn and he is Juiced a little bit over Xander is Juiced under 69 and a half okay good to know let's see hom 71 and a half Juiced a little bit over Henley Juiced over at 70 and a half he's minus 140 for that Klay is probably Juiced a little bit under 70 and a half um I would agree with that for the most part let's keep going through these so you can see Rory is actually Juiced over at 69 and a half Windom is about even money at that same number one and a half under par aberer Juiced under at 70 actually is he just over 70 and a half I do not agree with this line 70 and a half for OAR is juice towards the over so they're really leaning into the whole choking line then uh him not having a very good finishing round that is interesting I I don't agree with it but it is at least interesting to point out at the sports books do not think that oar is goingon to have a good round that's a it's a little sketchy and that I think that says a lot about how he's been finishing golf tournaments lately um Tommy Fleetwood is at the pretty much even money at 70 and a half and then Keegan is at 72 and a half I be Juiced under he's minus minus 150 towards the under wait now he's even money at 72 a half so I guess a huge bet probably just came in on ke and Bradley for The undergone Strokes because they had a minus 150 and now he's even money so yeah that's actually I guess that means that someone put a bunch of money on the on the over whatever I have no idea why he's at 72 and a half and honestly I have no idea why somebody just hammered his over at 7 two and a half because that's already the highest Strokes line on their book I know he's leading I know that there's some pressure involved in whatnot but Adam Scott is 71 and a half and he's only minus 140 towards the over so somebody went out there and hammered that Keegan over at plus money it moved the whole way to even money so oh interesting to see I don't know if I agree with that though let's take a look at some of the Caesar stuff so not only in Caesars do we have strokes lines but we can also take a look at some of their birdie props they have posted so the stroke stuff looks pretty much the same as what we had on FanDuel I don't see any major differences yet other than that maybe Rory has slightly more juice towards the over over here on Caesars let's see what they have Keegan at so Keegan was at 72 and a half and he's closer to even money so I guess they moved the line to make it closer to what it was over here and let's take a look at those uh those other categories I was mentioning before so the bir pars let's scroll down to where they have the birdie stuff posted so Henley 4 a half and minus 155 under same thing with somebody like a Harmon in fact he's actually minus 180 towards the under whereas Victor is at four and a half and he's minus 145 over it's we've got a a Rory at five and a half birdies we've got a h he's jued under four and a half he probably got to agree with that with how he's how poorly he's been playing but a can't lay minus 135 over a Windam Clark minus 140 towards the over it's pretty much what I what I was expecting to see from a lot of these Sports books Antonio by the way uh it's not showing me the birdie lines over here on FanDuel if you could let me know if they have Windam Clark birdies or better at uh i' I'd be super appreciative if you could let me know what that would be over there in FanDuel and then I guess Victor hin too I would kind of like to see that cuz he's minus 145 um over here on C C FanDuel um yeah I'd like to know what they have them at over there let me see if I can get this damn prize picks thing to open because that's the only site we need to compare to now before we go out there and enter some exposure and they have no interest at letting us look at the board for some reason come on now press and hold to confirm that I'm a human I mean I've done that like five times you guys still won't let me go to it all right it might be chocked we might not be able to look at the price pick board guys the stuff I've done the last few days that went out there and fixed it and made it work is not working this time all right well I guess we'll try on that a little bit later I guess what we can do is just try and make an underdog slip before we go out there and do that speaking of Antonio has us hooked up with the update on those fand sads so Victor is minus 150 for the over okay and uh what was Klay and Windam Clark if you can give me those ones too price piix doesn't even have a board yet okay that answers the question then so we're not missing anything so Clark is minus 140 for the over so here's what I'll say about Windom Clark so I bet is over four and a half today and he got me four birdies reality is though he could have easily had like seven eight birdies on the round he was hitting the ball beautifully he was hitting it close he actually missed two putts off memory that were inside five feet for birdie I'm not expecting that to happen again so if he's minus 140 towards the over on birdies I think that sounds like something that I want to play um same thing with a few of the other guys that I was having you look at so like Klay I think is maybe even within play as well I think that the havland one with this 1.1x multiplier um could be potentially in play now the issue is with these bur props is that they screw you on the payout if you don't find a way to anti-correlate it so maybe we can find something to mix in to make the payout better but it's kind of just spitballing what I was looking for at this point so yeah Klay is also minus 140 I kind of want to play these like especially like on an app where we're not taking that juice right like over here in underdog if we can find a way to anti-correlate this and and get the payout where we want it these are the kind of props that I want to enter cuz I I think it's going to be pretty tough tomorrow so it's not like I I like these birdie props because I think it's going to play easy um that's not what I'm saying by any means but if you're going to do anything as a supportive stance on players you know with some tough pins you know core skinn firm I think there's going to be bogeys out there but if you're hitting the ball well keeping the ball in the Fairway you're also going to be able to attack with some short clubs into de greens so uh I think there's birdies to be had I mean you saw that with the the average was 4.26 today and that includes a lot of the shittier players that were going off earlier if you just look at the guys there in the PM wave the birdie average was closer to four and a half per round for the guys that were teeing off later so you know birdie average was pretty much four and a half for these guys because they're all guys that were teeing off later and they're above average birdie makers and you could see the kind of sports book juice that they have in their Direction so who could be fade I I will say Russell Henley luck booxed the ever living out of it today now I don't know if at 70 and a half would be a better fade or going to like an over at two and a half Bogies he was minus 140 towards the over over here but let me see what it would look like for Bogies because we looked at the birdie props now let's look at the bogey props coincidentally right he's at two and a half Bogies and he's also minus 140 for that over so I guess we would just kind of pick our favorite at that point if they're both minus 140 but maybe we can find a better bogey option so I know I know that Russell Henley made some sense for fade but maybe we can find somebody that has nothing to play for that we can fade so let's go through this so saw 71 and a half I'll probably stay away from that one um Keegan is at 71 and a half he has 72 and a half on books and even money so in theory a 71 and a half fade would be some value not a ton of guys on here that aren't playing for anything tomorrow um Matty Fitz isn't so I guess he could potentially be an option for a fade but I would say that this Keegan one because he's in contention might be just a little bit better and it's will get a few others so the Russell Henley one could still be in play especially that that two and a half bogey Play What Was Keegan's Bogies at sorry he didn't have a bogey line maybe if we refresh it we'll get that for Keegan Bradley but uh who knows maybe he just doesn't have one posted uh where's he at yeah still nothing posted for Keegan okay that's a little bit strange there's Max hom there's we're still going through that range I guess Russell Henley fade could be an option that we get to H not a ton of fade options I would say so they don't have a lot of those scrubs that have nothing to play for even on the board but based on what I'm looking at here by the way if if we played this fiveman it would actually pay a little bit more than what it's supposed to I don't know if it'd be my favorite thing to do to go and enter this as a fiveman but I do have to say that these props are five Lans that I'll probably end up getting to out there for tomorrow by tell you the reasoning uh Keegan by the way it's a one stroke discrepancy also he's the leader so playing with a lot of pressure um he shoots even par he would go over this sort of line so I am interested to see where price piix ends up posting the board so we can look at that for comparison but I'm guessing they're going to post them at 72 Strokes so that might be a point5 discrepancy might not be right we'll have to see what they end up going with Russell Henley I'm guessing he'll probably be at 71 Strokes over there in prize picks they could surprise us they could also post them at 70 and a half but that's why those were the the first few leans that I was looking at um I would expect to see these guys posted at four and a half on prize picks now Clark probably the same thing or be four and a half on both sites but kle and havland they're probably just going to post them at four and a half birdies right so over here on Underdog where you can kind of boost up the payout by taking them with the scorcher maybe it's not the worst idea to take them on that side as opposed to prize picks later on so let's see where we're at on questions fade Matt for 1.1x what was he at so which category by the way let's see if I can figure it out so he was 1.1x for I guess you're saying the bogey line right out there with that um if he was two and a half I would 100% be with you in fact if he was two and a half and even if he was like a0 NX multiplier I would think about feeding him too and I think you're on the right kind of idea because he's not playing for his East Blake life like he's done right he has a zero% chance to go out there and make next week like maybe even the 71 and a half Strokes line now I'm not sure if he has one for comparison um over there in FanDuel in fact let me look at it let's see Fitzpatrick does he even have anything so yeah nothing posted over there I'm assuming he doesn't have something posted over here either on Caesar but you never know maybe I could be wrong let's see Matt Fitzpatrick yeah nothing posted in terms of a Strokes line it's in consideration at very least I don't know if it's my favorite play but it's definitely something I'm going to consider entering that's for sure ab's over four and a half is under minus 125 that's what I was saying before Antonio um they actually have that one posted on Caesar I think that he's got a good chance to go over four and a half birdies he said that he's going to be aggressive right he was mentioning that he's okay making some Bogies as long as he's going out there and trying to score I actually think that his overs a pretty good look Keegan fantasy he said it seems way too low those fantasy score props they're usually a little bit Hit or Miss if you compare him to the other guys at 71 and a half he is lower than some of the other ones right so he's 19 compared to 23 and a half out there with like an Adam Scott saw theala now the issue is right I don't think Keegan has a good right he's starting in the lead he's going be playing with a lot of pressure but in terms of like the comparative value it is probably there the issue for me is the fact that he still has to go out there and actually hit that line so I think if anything I think the overrun Strokes might be the better way to go about it but you know if you're if you're a Keegan believer it could be a look Henley's a bullshitter you said yeah I agree with that one that's for damn sure uh I don't know if you saw his round today EMT but he Lux sacked the ever living out of it today he uh he made like a 30 foot par putt on 16 that broke three ways he uh chipped in for a par and it's just and you can tell right I I was obviously sweating a fade for him and it didn't hit yeah he is a bullshitter you're right yeah Keegan fantasy very low as you said I think I do think it's low but at the same time I don't know if we're g to count on him to have a good round right starting in that leader spot you'd be careful on late guy bir your better overs pins are very card well we can look at the pins but uh I don't know if that's true until we look at them right so let me bring them up and we'll look at it pins are usually tough for Sundays but we have to take a look at the scorable holes to go out there and determine that and in fact dude they haven't posted a pin sheet yet Sean so I don't know if you have a crystal ball or if you're like a player or a caddy or something and like you were sent the information early but yeah they haven't posted pins so you're probably just bullshitter if I had to guess yeah we look at big six you think The Strokes lines on FanDuel and Caesars for late guys are awful yeah I don't know about that you said look on the shot tracker for round four it's it's on round three is it not maybe they did load in round four you never know I guess but that would be that would be like a first by the way they they usually never do that yeah you can't even look at round four dude yeah dude H you're looking looking at the the round from today you can look at the pins early no you can't I'm showing you right now right look at the bottom left rounds one round two and round three there's no round four and if we go back and we click on these you're going to see the same thing there's there's no round four so yeah dude I I don't know about that one you can prove us wrong I guess but I don't see it and if you're talking about the one in the sports book if they don't post the information publicly How do they have it right I just I don't know about that one man if they post them and they're difficult then we can we can adjust to that I'm expecting them to be normal Sunday pins there'll be a few tough ones there'll probably be a few easy ones but uh it's not even public information yet so I don't know how we're we're supposed to account for that right let's take a look at the pick six board though so over here on pick six they've been just pretty much copy and pasting the DraftKings board but for this week since they don't have DraftKings odds uh they haven't been able to do that so they've got guys like Adam Scott at 70 and a half I actually really like that for an over they have Keegan Bradley at 70 and a half I also really like that for an over too let's look at the birdie board so they have guys like a Rory who you know is kind of out of it at this point so maybe you'd avoid him actually he's still minus five so I guess he'll kind of care out there for tomorrow's round but this kind of slip is probably what I would go with um those Fades by the way if I think Keegan's a decent over at 71 and a half Strokes at 70 and a half he's an even better play Adam Scott right he's an entire stroke higher over there in Underdog and sports books and by the way Adam Scott is like minus 140 towards his over at 71 and a half Strokes so both of those are really solid pieces of value and then uh I guess you have to find some of the offset that so actually an over wouldn't even work so maybe we could go to strokes and try and find somebody for an under that would make sense but uh these lines are pretty terrible so we go to pars yeah probably not the best category we go to fantasy points maybe that's another way that we could try and attack this like maybe an over on fantasy points for like Windam Clark or something like that uh maybe like an over in fantasy points for like a Victor havin that's still an issue I guess I I was thinking like fade versus positive stance play with trying to mix things in but the way it works over here in pick six is you literally need an over and an under and a slip to go out there and make it playable and that's going to be tough to find based on what we have here so oh maybe you do Fade somebody that's kind of out of it so is there anyone even on the board I guess like a saw here but that would be an over on strokes and we're already mixing it with a few other overs I got to say I like the board and by the way this sa over 70 and a half is also a really good play that I would mix in I like these fades for strokes I do also potentially like like this over on Rory or this over on like a Victor havland or maybe even like a a c lay birdies here at four and a half the issue is going to be to try and find an under to make this work I mean fantasy points I guess maybe you can try and find something here pars you could try and force something in right and try and do like an under on pars for somebody but that's it's such a tough scene all the value in my opinion would be on overs whether it's a few of these overs on birdies or you know a few of these Fades on Strokes for scrubs at like 70 and a half but it's it's not my favorite slate because there's nothing to mix in in terms of under so if you're playing a pick six and maybe you do have an under lean that you really like you're probably going to have a lot of over stuff to go out there and mix in with it but personally I don't see a lot right there let's see if we can get this price pick to work because that's really annoying I can't even look at the board I guess I didn't even have a board posted so I'm not missing out on all that much huh and it doesn't look like there's one posted now they just ended up updating it and making it so I could look at their website at least and they've got nothing posted so H is what it is I guess see on chat Sean is from the future the Sportsbook tracker is the shotlink third party tracker okay so you're saying you do it for every tournament I'll believe you on that then uh I don't use those trackers so I wouldn't know right whether they update them ahead of time Click on each hole which one are you talking about by the way Sean because I've never used that tracker before are you talking about like bet 365 or is that on FanDuel because I guess if I don't log in right I can't log into fandel or DraftKings um because it's not legal down here in the State of Florida tell me what sports book you're using though because that is good information to have ahead of time but sports book you're on FanDuel and they don't have the round four tracker go to Caesars or FanDuel so yeah Antonio is saying that fandle doesn't have it loaded up yet it's not going to load for me on either regardless though because I'm I'm in a state where it's not legal to use those Sports books but that is good information to know at least like if I'm out there in Vegas I'm out you know Georgia something like that I can potentially look at those sites in their tracker but yeah dude there's Sunday pins there's going to be some tough ones there's going to be some good ones even if we see the pins and it's like oh yeah there's a few tuck near water it's not really going to change our thought process all that much today's pins were pretty hard in a few spots they were also pretty easy in a few spots as well so just to show you like for example like 16 pin that was a pretty tough one over there towards the water um but 15 right it wasn't there in that back right like it was for round one um hole number 10 12 right 12 was a pretty tough pin today um 10 was pretty tough with that sort of pin location there's always going to be hard locations uh two and three by the way were really tough pins today so they might make a few of them tough if I had to guess they're probably going to make 10 a difficult one over here on the right side if I had to guess 15 maybe like a middle right pin location let me see where else could they make a tough one um seven maybe over there in that right side I could see that being the Sunday pin location um hole number three I'm guessing it's going to be tucked over here on the left somewhere near the water um they've done that a few times already though so I I could see them going right back to that out there with the Sunday pin 14 probably there in the back left probably going to leave that short Miss in the water into play um we'll have to see I mean obviously I'm just taking a guess at these pins but yeah I fully expect them to be hard they're going to tuck them out there but they're still going to be birdies you're still going to see probably at least a four birdie average probably maybe even 4.25 to 4.5 per round um just like today right you had some that were really tucked you had some real difficult pins out there for today's action um a lot of win too I mean you saw that right 10 15 maybe even 20 miles an hour of win the entire round and it didn't affect the players that much go to round four click on groups then click on any group you can go whole by hole it's yeah it doesn't show up for me regardless though man all right that's all I've got for this live stream though guys hopefully you feel a little bit more prepared out there for tomorrow's action and you're ready to get after it for all of your props and DFS lineups if you feel a little bit more prepared go out there smash the like button if you guys haven't already and also make sure you subscribe to the channel so you don't miss any of the content to come next week we'll have boots on the ground action out there for the Tour Championship if you want to know about the renovation to East Lake want to know how it's going to play differently here in 2024 go ahead subscribe so you don't miss any of that information and let's go out there and have ourselves a Sunday best of luck as I said before hopefully you go out there and Crush everything that you guys enter and uh can make your boy proud