Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles Predictions and Props | 2024 NFL Week 1 Picks

the Eagles and the Packers in Brazil on Friday night we have the Eagles at minus two with the total set at 49 we're going to break down this game and give you a best bet on this I'm Andy from wagertalk.com thanks for joining us if you guys could real quick hit the like button subscribe to the channel if you haven't while we give out this best bet I got to tell you this game is pretty hard to handicap and I would just caution everyone don't go big on this one um I could not find very many uh trends for the spread or the total in fact my best bet on this game is actually a player prop that probably is not a big surprise at everybody but let's go through this spread in this total and I got to tell you the trends are really hard to come by when you're looking at uh the spreads and covering the spreads try and go back to last year and neither one of these teams was dominant against the spread and I know it was a tale of two seasons for both of them you got Jordan love who got much better as the season went on Jaylen Herz I believe was pretty hurt uh as the season went on for the Eagles so they were much better at the beginning of the year and then down the stretch uh they just really struggled I went looked at the over unders both of them pretty close to that 50% uh nothing real dominant there the only Trend that I did see was that the Philadelphia Eagles were 13 and four to the first half over uh not just their team total but just for the entire first half both teams combined got over that team total a total sitting at 24 and a half right now so if you believe in that Trend maybe look at that what worries me about this game is the unknowns uh I was reading some quotes from players earlier about how they're being told do not leave the hotel when you get to Brazil the crime rate is too high AJ Brown was saying I'm not leaving the room Darius Slay was talking about how it's just crazy why are we here in Brazil and then he had to come back and apologize because it's 2024 and you have to apologize for everything apparently so um the unknown in this game with the I don't know what the HF is going to be like until the players get out there um I would assume that Jaylen Herz is 100% healthy uh Jordan love seems to have most of his weapons at his disposal I know AJ Dylan is out so they might be a little bit thin at running back I'm not too worried about Jason Kelce uh retiring and not being there they've got a really good replacement Jurgens is going to be the replacement Jurgens was a backup to Kelce he's played alongside Kelce on the offensive line This is not just like a rookie who's coming in who hasn't played with this team or free agent that doesn't know anything about the Eagles I think he's going to start and be just fine I don't see that big of a drop off so when I'm looking at the spread it's only minus two so it's less than a field goal I'm I'm a Believer in both of these teams and I look at sharp football analysis and man to these teams these teams rank very very close across all categories the coaching has matched up very close uh the offensive line are both very highly rated the defensive front sevens are very highly rated uh their skill positions are both you know in the top 12 so it's tough to find a real advantage that one team has over the other because of that the only value is in taking the points at plus two maybe a little sprinkle on the money line with the Packers of course no home field advantage for either team I can't say that's a really strong play it's certainly not an official play uh for myself or for my clients and we've been very good this year we're up 151 units across all sports so um we're playing it very cautious in this game the total uh 49 I don't know if there's much you can do with that number sitting right on that key number of 49 I do like the trend of the Philadelphia Eagles first half totals going over last year 13 and four so I wouldn't mind to sprinkle on that one um but my best bet is going to be uh Jaylen Herz to score a touchdown I think the tra I think the Jason Kelce lead the Eagles is a touch overblown this is only minus 105 I was very surprised to see that price this is Jaylen Herz who despite him being injured last year 15 rushing touchdowns last year the Packers were tied for ninth for the most rushing touchdowns allowed and Jaylen Herz started the Year by scoring a rushing touchdown in nine out of the first 12 games so he got off to a very hot start this is one of those plays that if you believe in it you play it you know week in and week out especially if we're getting this minus 105 the nice thing about getting this at minus 105 is it cashes you got a great nice winner for week one if it misses this thing may be the same price or maybe even plus money uh next weekend but uh for the purposes of this game by far it's the best bet I didn't really like uh any of the player props for the Packers uh we've got two new running backs with the team so I need to take a wait and see approach with this one um but for the spread ever so slight lean to the plus two no opinion on the total uh but the one play that I could see myself getting to the window and the one that I would recommend the most is Jaylen Herz to just score a touchdown like I said 15 rushing touchdowns last year nine out of the first 12 games he scored a touchdown in that is my best bet for this game if you guys haven't liked and subscribed to the Channel please do that and don't forget to check out my NFL week one pack even though uh we're breaking down this game on Friday plenty of plays that go off on Sunday we've just had a fantastic 2024 so far our goal was 150 units we had 91 units in profit in 2023 and it's already over that 150 units so we hope to continue um those those profits throughout we've been traditionally very good in the first four weeks of the NFL season I believe we're plus 16 units the first four weeks so uh getting on these plays early in the season has been a real money maker for us so encourage everyone to check that out W.B we're not quite number one in provin on wager talk for 2024 we're number two we're trying to to chase down Tokyo Brandon in The Amazing run he's had for the baseball season but it's our time now we're going to get him in football season so thanks so for watching like And subscribe and don't forget to leave a comment below tell me who you like in this game I love reading the comments love responding uh to everyone I'm sure this is a polarizing game uh my family is from Green Bay so I know I will be getting a lot of lot of messages and uh text messages on Friday night good or bad so thanks for joining good fcking on your place and we'll see you everyone later