Brandon Aiyuk Update: 49ers standing on business

Intro what is going on it just took me four hours to get from Santa Clara to San Francisco I could get partially into the story but I want to talk about Brandon auk and CD lamb but today was the day that I took Bart I take my bike on the train BART had a meltdown on the East Bay I couldn't go that way I had a cross back on VTA then I had to come up on Cal Train two train stalled the tracks at one point on VTA the driver had to get out and try to fix them I'm not kidding and I have a flight to catch in a couple hours so I'm not going to sit here uh lamenting uh how everything went into a tail spin on my drive home I was just really excited to talk to you about Brandon auk the 49ers and how the 49ers at some point they've got a stand on principle and I think that we're seeing at least a little bit of that right now so forget about the commute home that was a disaster we have a little bit of time before I have to rush down to SFO and catch a flight to Nashville for tomorrow Tom's Lombardi Lounge Meetup 5:00 pm Omni Hotel see you there if you're in Nashville and obviously the 49ers Titans game on Saturday all right so anyway holding pattern right now The holding pattern 49ers reportedly the Steelers according to reports the Steelers are not willing to offer the compensation that the 49ers want for Brandon auk supposedly he's agreed to auk himself has agreed to the Pittsburgh compensation package but that's separate from the compensation package that the 49ers would need to receive from the Steelers So that obviously is is holding things up the 49ers at the bottom line they do not have any incentive from a rational point of view now if emotions get involved it's a little bit different but from a rational business point of view there is no incentive for the 49ers to give away Brandon iuk for anything less than a cost that they deem fair and at some point they do need to stand on principle with this he's under contract with them and they need to make sure that if they let him escape the contract that he's under that they get a fair return otherwise it sets really bad precedent this could set precedent into future negotiations I'll say this last year Nick Bosa won his contract negotiation with the 49ers absolutely I mean he held out until what two or three days before the start of the regular season and then he was able to get a contract that was not only the top contract for a defender in NFL history but a top the top contract for a non-quarterback in NFL history we thought that you know maybe Aaron Donald's number would be tough to surpass because nobody else on the defensive side was above 30 million per year Bosa blew it away he ended at 34 million what was it 87 million fully guaranteed it it was huge Justin Jefferson actually broke the receiver Market it probably in an even greater way because receivers weren't even close to uh the top of the defensive end Market but Justin Jefferson when he looked for a contract to try to urp he pointed at bossas and his numbers were 35 million because bossas was 34 per year so he wanted to Eclipse that and then his guaranteed number was 88 million fully guaranteed Justin Jefferson eclipsed I think 87.5 million fully guaranteed for Nick Bosa so it was a precedent setting contract but the the truth of the matter is that it's it was administered within the 49ers ecosystem and the 49ers have the most highly paid stars in the National Football League combine that truth with the fact that salary cap space even if you control the flow of the salary cap a lot of people like to call it manipulating the cap even if you manipulate the cap move money around signing bonuses push it into the future salary cap space even with flow control is a finite resource so if the 49ers are giving out big deals every single season they've got to be really careful about where the the monetary limit of those deals is how much money is flowing into the salary cap sync every year because that's gonna have to come and hit the cap at some point even if you're pushing it into the future with some of these signing bonuses so it was George KD 2020 Fred Warner in 2021 they also gave out a record contract to Trent Williams in 2021 maybe we should be talking about that hold out a little bit more Debo Samuel big money in 2022 and then Nick Bosa in 2023 was the biggest money of all of those contracts and I think the 49ers managed to keep the ones prior to that at their budget I wouldn't say that they won the negotiations I wouldn't say that they lost those negotiations I would just say that those were good negotiations both the player and the team ended up happy Bosa they were so desperate to get him into the building because it had lasted that long it just showed how much Leverage Nick Bosa had because of the type of player that he is and the position that he plays he's the reigning Defensive Player of the Year Bosa I think it's clear won the negotiation with the 49ers so now we are living in a world where the 49ers are operating with the knowledge that Bosa on that negotiation last year and Brock P's contract is probably going to come up next season and that's going to be one that's really hard to win as well if you're the team because he's the quarterback he's got leverage if you thought Bosa had a lot of Leverage Brock p is gonna have even more it's a tough situation right now for both sides because Brandon iuk Falls in between bosa's year and P's year just bad luck probably for Brandon iuk in that regard so the 49ers have to make sure that they do not let losing contract negotiations become president they they lost one last year to Bosa so I I think it's very self-explanatory why they're playing the hard line here with Brandon auk they're they're trying to make sure that they set a proper precedent for future negotiations now there's a lot of talk online there was just like a tweet that somebody I think it was T.J hush manada actually who's worked with Brandon iuk he's like well well the 49ers this is crazy they're they're not getting this done for the difference of two million per year they offered 26 all he wants is 28 well the main point here is average per year does not tell us enough about a deal it doesn't again it's the fully guaranteed money and the guaranteed money I could give you an example when Tyreek Hill signed his contract before this one look at that nothing's going right today with the technical stuff first the train then the mic starts slipping have to make sure this stays up there um when Tyreek Hill signed his Tyreek Hill example contract prior to this one he was able to get it to 30 million per year but he was only able to get it there because he had a $43 million salary in the final season of his deal that was not guaranteed so the team had an easy out at any time it wanted the team wasn't obligated to pay the money at the end of the deal that actually made the deal average per year the apy 30 million so you can fake your way to high apy so there're for more Crystal Clear example here there could be a deal that's worth 30 million average per year that is a worst contract than one that is worth 26 million per year so everybody's saying well the Patriots offered him 32 million per year well that's great but we don't know the guarantees we don't know the fully guaranteed money which is the money that's guaranteed for skill and the total guaranteed money which includes the money that's guaranteed for injury so everybody's going out and talking like like they know contracts like they know oh yeah 28 million 2 million that's easy for the 49ers without acknowledging they don't know the details that's like it's like appraising a house without you know look to see what's inside the house right like without looking to see that that that uh the you know piping's not all burst and and the air conditioning is is working like you you actually have to look at the anatomy of the deal to know if it's a good deal or not so people are going to be tossing around New England 32 million 49ers 26 million he actually wants 28 that is so surface level that that that it hurts so apy does not tell us enough uh next thing Le leverage you know when we talk about the 49ers uh standing on principle they they can afford the standon principle because yes they do have leverage in the situation there have been some debates about leverage as of late Leverage is determined by what each side can credibly threaten to do in a standoff okay so the 49ers this is what they incredibly threaten to do they can be Brandon UK's only Avenue to payment in 2024 what do I mean by that well he's under contract with them it's the fifth year option he was drafted in the first round in 2020 he had four years at a rookie rate and then the fifth year option which the 49ers picked up last season is fully guaranteed at the time that the team exercises it uh it was determined to be 14.1 million for Brandon iuk by the formula set aside in the collective bargaining agreement CD Lambs is a little bit more expensive we'll get the CD Lambs fifth year option here in a little bit because uh there's been some drama on social media on the Dallas front but it was a set at a fully guaranteed 14.1 million Brandon auk is under contract for that amount if the 49ers just put their hands in their pockets and do nothing and Brandon auk does nothing too in return then he won't get paid this year the his only Avenue to payment is the 49ers unless the 49ers decide that they want to do something else but it's up to the team to actually execute a trade so when I say Leverage is determined by what each side can credibly threaten to do that's what the 49ers can credibly threaten to do what's Brandon auk's leverage well Brandon auk can threaten to sit out the season and make nothing is that a credible threat if he threatens to do that I'm not sure maybe it is maybe he's willing to do that Le'Veon Bell did that right speaking of the Pittsburgh Steelers uh that was with the Steelers Le'Veon Bell decided to to sit out the full season you don't make those game checks so Brandon auk's 14.1 million you divide that by 18 it's like 78,000 every game check is $780,000 that's what he would forfeit each and every week the 49ers it's up to their discretion by the way they can start fining Brandon auk up to uh the the cost of one game check even in the preseason if if he doesn't play I don't know if the team's going to do that but uh in reading the Ive bargaining agreement over the years uh that is one thing that I learned that the teams basically when we talk about leverage the teams by the CBA have a lot of power more power in the NFL than they do in the other leagues like the NBA much more player friendly which is why you could see guys picking their team and uh you know even if they're under contract it seems that the stars are able to force their way to places in NFL maybe quarterbacks are starting to develop that power because there's such an outsized importance on the field for the quarterback position I imagine next year if Brock py doesn't show up the training camp if he's not a camp at this point it's August 8th 49ers would be inoperable like they they would know that their season is is kaput if Brock pry doesn't show up that's leverage with Nick Bosa there was like oh God yeah this guy better come in at some point because our defense is going to Crater without him it wasn't as bad as the quarterback not being there but it was still pretty bad so they eventually fold it right before the start of the regular season season auk and is not through any fault of his own he's a fantastic receiver but he's just not in that same position the 49ers have Debo Samuel they have Christian mcaffrey they have George KD they have Jawan Jennings they have Kyle yusek probably forgot a really good receiver but you get the idea I could list that for five minutes we won't run out of uh we won't run out of names and Brock bird is a really good quarterback so if Leverage is determined by what each side can cred threatened to do the 49ers can much more credibly say Brandon auk we are your only Avenue of payment for 2024 they can much more credibly say that than Brandon iuk can say yeah I'm just gonna sit out and and I'll make nothing that's just that the that's just the way that that this is set up like it or not just giving you the facts that's how the business Dynamics are laid out by the collective bargaining agreement and that's what the 49ers I think are If Aiyuk starts bugging Shanahan showing right now control their own destiny in a rational game now an irrational game things would be a little bit different right if if Brandon auk starts bugging Kyle Shanahan too much at the facility we got that report from Mike silver that Shanahan wasn't happy about the hold in and Shanahan is just like I don't want him in here he's bad for the locker room this is an if I I'm not saying this is what Shanahan thinks but I'm saying that if it reached a Tipping Point to where the 49ers thought that this wasn't good for uh the team morale and having Brandon iuk holding in and not playing was something that was was hurting them that was a net negative well then you know I think that emotions would be at play it wouldn't just be a rational business game it wouldn't be just a cut and dry spreadsheet kind of game and in that case if there's an externality there that you know is is affecting the thought process then yeah maybe the 49ers would give away the keys so to speak to their own maybe they would move into okay we'll accept the trade but until it reaches The 49ers have high ground that point they have high ground here they have firm ground here to where they don't have to accept the trade that doesn't make them better or isn't commentate value isn't something that's acceptable they don't have to deal from a position of scarcity here they can deal from a position of abundance with Brandon auk still under cont ra with the football team so it comes back to the top it at some point the Ford anners have to stand on principle because you can't stand on principle when you're in an abundance kind of situation then when are you ever going to stand on principle this is not just about this contract negotiation it's about future ones as well you look into the you know charvarius Ward is going to come up for a new deal this next season damra Lenor is gonna be coming up for a new deal next season the salary cap Salary cap analogy is we're going to go back to the analogy the salary cap is like a sync but every year every year's salary cap situation is a sync and expenditures or or payments to players contracts are water flowing through the faucet into the sink there are mechanisms in case the sink water level gets too high in any given year there are mechanisms to push the the water into future years so the sinks are connected by a pipe you drain water out of one year and it fills you know 20% into year two 20% into year three 20 2020 uh into the subsequent years you can prate these cap hits of signing bonuses after the restructures for up to four years so it's a constant management of sync levels in each season but it's you know so people say okay well you can manipulate the cap that's great you can get under the cap unless too much water overwhelms the system at that point you can't manipulate the cap anymore you have to start cutting people the 49ers of the late 1990s had to disband the franchise right or the sorry not the franchise the dynasty they had to disbanded the dynasty don't worry the 49ers still exist they didn't stop they didn't go out of business after the 1990s although it might have seemed like it based on their play on the field they had to disbanded the dynasty after the 1990s because they got into salary Capel we've seen teams like the Saints who push it to the Limit have to cut players as well the Rams the other year they had a Cup players the 49ers well whether you like it or not I'm just explaining the strategy right now they they're intent on keeping things as sustainable as possible now there's the whole subset of the fan base that really wants them to just mortgage the future and go all in for 2024 and I totally understand that and there's a compelling argument to make regarding that but the 49ers think that they could straddle the line they could walk the tight RPP they think that they they could have their cake and eat it to in this situation so far up this point they've been able to do that and they've been able to allow that water through flow control to keep the various sinks at a level a water level that is manageable but you've got to realize there's going to be a whole heck of a lot of water pouring in with Brock P's contract there was more water than they anticipated that poured in with Nick bosa's contract so they're very delicately handling whatever they can offer to Brandon iuk and if they pour a little bit too much into the into the water system system here the salary cap system they have for Brandon auk it might mean that they can't resign one or of charvarius Ward or deam Lenor both of charvarius Ward or deam Lenor that that might be the tradeoff that you're making not saying that is the trade-off they're making it's really really hard to know exactly what the trade-offs will be you guys know I delve through this really really deeply when I do my 49ers salary cap stuff here I I have it all all tracked just so I could prove it to some of you who our new viewers I have this prepared on a year-by-year basis so here's my 2024 spreadsheet you could see the liabilities um you could see the cap space then here's the 2025 spreadsheet they've got 22.6 million in 2025 of room under my projected salary cap but they're going to be able to carry over the space they don't use this year so say they carry over 20 which is probably aggressive but if they carry over 20 they've got 42 million next year but they only have 31 players under a contract and that's still a PR's old number and Brandon auk's not even included in 200 and 25 and also I don't know exactly what the cap is going to be I'm guessing 280 million the 49ers are guessing now too it's tied to the size of League revenues so it is a delicate delicate situation when you have the most highly paid stars in the NFL to thread the to make sure that every single time one of these new guys wants to get paid and I's not new but he's new to to getting paid the big bucks here in the NFL every single time one of these guys and their contract comes up you've got to make sure that you are delicately managing this situation here through the years so that you don't hit an overflow point at an inopportune time in the future because salary cap space even Trade with Steelers with flow control is a finite resource so that's why the 49ers are where they're at and as far as the trade with the Steelers I I think it's really clear when we analyze what's going on right now the 49ers Diana Rini reported today that they somehow want a receiver back but the Steelers are unwilling to send the player over so then it gets complicated because you say okay may can the 49ers bring in a third team somehow and make this a mic fell again make this a three-way trade of of some sort that we see that happen in the NBA a lot we rarely rarely have seen it if if at all in in the National Football League U so that could be something that that ends up satisfying the 49ers from a compensation point of view but it's extremely unlikely to attain the easiest thing to do probably for San Francisco is to put their hands in their pockets but they also want to maximize their chances of winning and they also have to think about the Dynamics of the building and the team and that leads me to the final point of potentially just mortgaging the future and this is what a lot of fans seem to want a lot of fans are like okay fine just pay him whatever he wants uh so so so he ends this hold in and he gets to work and uh so the 49ers have the best team possible and so I look at it as two schools of thought you know you could be and we've seen this happen before in NFL history teams that just push every single chip into the middle of the table for example the 1994 49ers did this they pushed every chip into the middle of the table because they uh had lost twice in a row to the Dallas Cowboys they wanted to beat them really bad and ended up winning them a Super Bowl but it also ended up being the turning point for that dynasty because they had to let go of Ricky Waters the next off season everybody lamented that but they didn't have a run game anymore in 95 and the 49ers haven't won a Super Bowl since so I get it because a lot of I think 49ers fans lived through the 90s they lived through the frustration of the 49ers losing to the Cowboys twice in a row kind of like the current age 49ers have lost to the Chiefs twice in a row and they saw the 1994 49ers mortgage everything to beat the Cowboys in 94 and it worked that's the last Super Bowl that 49ers fans have seen so I got to put up one of the 94 49ers team Super Bowl posters up when I talk about this kind of stuff I'll swap out the posters in the future but you know I I totally get it because that had led to success but it also led to you know a painful rebuild and it's a rebuild that you know several rebs later after that 49ers have yet to win another Super Bowl so I could Conclusion tell you that this front office believes that they can walk that line I know that a lot of fans disagree with that I know that there is murkiness because you look at the future Sal cap projections and you're not exactly sure where the cap is going to be you're not exactly sure what Brock p is going to make and that's the fun of all this we just don't know exactly where the truth is going to be everybody's kind of you know go feeling around in the dark we'll put it that way they're they're trying to find where the guard rail is where the wall is and they're they're trying to do their very best to make sure the 49ers are salary cap compliant for the Long Haul and also Fielding the best possible team in 2024 and the biggest asset at the 49ers disposal right now in this Brandon auk situation is the fact that they do indeed have the leverage now he's got a little bit of Leverage if you move it to a trade sphere but it doesn't move to a trade sphere until the 49ers actually agree on compensation with a team that Brandon auk is interested in in going to if it's just within the realm of uh localized negotiations within the 49ers building that's where San Francisco has Brandon iuk under contract and that's where they do have an upper hand all right we'll see how this works out it is a game of chicken it's a standoff it's a staredown it's a star down and I am very much looking forward to seeing what the next chapter is one of the more volatile situations that we've seen contractually maybe in NFL history at this point so so really is fascinating a what we're seeing here and the next steps are definitely going to be very very scrutinized and I will cover them deeply here as well hope you enjoyed the show I was able to squeeze one in I've got a flight to catch I got a bag to pack I will see everybody soon