Exclusive: Kamala Harris Will Be The Next President Predicts Professor Allan Lichtman

Professor Alan Litman known as Nostradamus when it comes to us elections your prediction this year round how my system predicts kamla Harris will break through the glass ceiling and become the first woman president of the United States and Donald Trump as a great showman he only appeals to a narrow base his average approval rating as a president was 41% one of the lowest in history she remember they all called Hillary Clinton in 2016 when I was virtually alone in calling Donald Trump I'm being joined by Professor Alan lickman known as Nostradamus when it comes to us elections and the predictions uh he has been predicting since 198 for has never almost never got it wrong uh Professor lman thank you so much for joining us over here what's your predictions this year round you got Biden correct Trump correct uh Obama correct and many other presidents um so what's it this time that uh who are you calling this time I am making a prediction based upon my system the keys to the White House which you noted has been right since I predicted Ronald Reagan reelection in April 1982 nearly 3 years ahead of time during what was then the worst recession since the Great Depression when his approval ratings were down in the dumps now my system predicts that we are going to have a path breaking result in 2024 that uh kamla Harris will break through the glass ceiling and become the first woman president of the United States that's where the keys stand now so you're calling kamla Harris that's a big one uh we'll be asking you of all the 13 key indicators that you uh explain as to why uh but you defy all the pollsters and pundits there are many who are putting Trum ahead many who are saying it's going to be a tough fight uh what made you predict that this is going to be kamla Harris's election yes the keys to the White House are unique they ignore the pundits who have no scientific basis for their predictions remember they all called Hillary Clinton in 2016 when I was virtually alone in calling Donald Trump it doesn't pay attention to the polls which a snapshots not predictors and they were also wrong in 2016 the keys to the White House are different in that they tap into to how American presidential elections really work as votes up or down on the strength and performance of The White House Party and that's what the keys gauge and it's a simple decision rule if six or more of the 13 keys go against the White House party now the Democrats they are predicted losers few within six they are predicted winners I've now called the keys and found that uh kamla Harris at most has lost four to five keys there a little bit shaky calls on foreign policy because there are still two Wars raging but regardless she falls short of the six negative keys that would be needed to predict that Donald Trump would return to the White House and Harris would lose instead the keys are now pointing to her Victory well that's very interesting let's go uh through your keys uh you have 13 Keys uh two of which also talk about Charisma but let's go one by one explain to us the keys and how be work for you in your reading of who will win yes keep in mind it takes six keys to cter out key number one is the Mandate key based on US House elections that key is false because Democrats lost seats in 2022 second key is the internal party contest for the White House Party and despite the switch from Biden which I thought would lead to a big party brawl Democrats suddenly grew a spine and got smoke smart United behind Harris that key is true key number three is incumbency obviously false once Biden stepped down key number four is third party and the candidacy of RFK Jr has fizzled he suspended his campaign and that may in part have been due to the switch to Harris since no longer did the American voters have to choose between two old white guys hate to say that being a white guy myself but that's the way it goes so of the first four two or false remember it takes six yes next is the recession key that there is no recession in the election year there's no recession there's not going to be one in two months that key is true key number six is the long-term economic key measured by real per capita growth in the term two terms and the Biden growth is more than double that key is true key number seven is policy change huge policy changes from Trump to Biden on the environment on on immigration on infrastructure on taxes inflation climate change that key is true key number eight is social unrest now there has been some sporadic social unrest but we've seen it Lely fizzle you know nothing much happened with Democratic Convention to turn this key there has to be massive sustained social unrest nothing like that that key is true then we come to my favorite key the SC Scandal key number eight and Republicans have been trying to pin a scandal on Biden for four years they've come up empty their star witness Mr smof was arrested by the FBI for lying about Biden and spreading Russian propaganda and according to the key and you got to stick to my definitions it has to implicate himself it can't be hun by or a family member so that key is true then we have the most difficult Keys the two foreign policy keys because we still have two Wars raging number 10 is foreign policy failure did they avoid it and I think right now Gaza has been a big failure humanitarian disaster no end in sight foreign policy success another tough key but I've split the keys I've called that for Biden because it was Biden and Biden alone who put together the Coalition of the West that stop Putin from quickly conquering Ukraine and then threatening America's NATO all and with continuing support from Biden Ukraine has survived for more than 2 and A2 years and even made an incursion into Russian territory I think this will go down as a great accomplishment of American diplomacy so that key is true key number 12 incumbent Charisma of very high threshold key to win this key the incumbent candidate has to be one of those on in a generation transformational candidates that appeals across the board like like Franklin Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan whatever you may think of Parris she doesn't fit that that's false that's for false key last one that the challenging candidate is not one of these once in a generational transformation of candidates and Donald Trump is a great showman but he doesn't fit the definition of the key because he only appeals to a narrow base his average approval rating as a president was 41% one of the lowest in history he lost two consecutive presidential elections in the popular vote by a combined 10 million votes so that key is true so that's four Keys down possibly conceivably a fifth depending on what happens in the wars but no matter what there aren't enough keys to elect Donald Trump and count out Harris that's why I'm predicting a woman president in 2024 well that's uh that's great news was first woman president first of South Asian and uh and uh African-American origin um or our first uh Indian and black uh woman pres that's extraordinary a woman of color both East Indian and African-American black and Donald Trump of course has totally blown that saying oh she suddenly turned black what nonsense she went to a historically black University she joined a black sorority she was a member of the black caucus in the Senate just Al lie well that brings me to the bigger question over here this time around and which we seen last time around as well Professor liman is the the the one of the key factors which I don't see over here but you might want to answer is the misinformation the misinformation disinformation campaign how does that really work into this entire indicators that you that you've spelled out uh is that a factor that you've uh looked into have you factored that it I don't you know my favorite comedian was the late great Gilda Radner who had a character called rosan rosan Dana who said there's always something there's always something unique in an election in 2008 people said you got to change your keys because we have an African-American running never had that before the country is ready for that we had massive information in 2016 we've always had misinformation and all kinds of unique things going on in a presidential election that's why the keys of the North Star prediction they don't change depending upon these shifting uh events of the campaign now that said I'm not you know speaker Mike Johnson who claims the almighty talks to him like are based on history and they're very robust retrospectively in development they go all the way back to the horse and buggy days of politics in 1860 but could there be some catastrophic unprecedented change that break the pattern of history of course I'm not so arrogant to say that can't happen but the point is you never know whether that's going to happen until afterwards that's why I stick to the Keys and don't get distracted by the events of the campaign and the big positive message of the keys it's governing not campaigning that counts okay um then you're keeping misinformation as side but when it comes to uh it's a unique situation Professor liman uh you have very rarely uh come across such a situation where a sitting where an where the incumbent has stepped away from the elections and you have another candidate in the frey in such a scenario when you are looking at these indicators do you attribute the trues and false to the incumbent or the candidate because the candidate path of the administration the keys are always measured against the strength and performance of the incumbent party whether the candidate is the sitting president or not that's the big message of the keys that elections are based on the strength and performance of The White House Party not on the debates the fundraising the ads the negative tricks you know based on conventional analysis of the campaign Hillary Clinton should have won going away in 2016 she won all the debates she had more fundraising more ads a better organization more experience but I was virtually alone using the keys in predicting a Donald Trump Victory why was that was that not also because of the baggage of being a part of the administration which maybe kamla Harris also carries well it's I only say this because uh your indicators on war your indicators on on uh economy and on those counts you would have people looking at uh performance of the Biden Administration as they did um the the Obama Administration it's not the Obama Administration another message of the keys is It Works Administration by Administration so Obama first term there are enough keys in favor of the Democrats to predict Obama's reelection in a very artical election that actually called in 2010 sometimes the keys fall into place early so we're now judging against uh the current Administration not the Obama Administration and remember not only did you have an open seat with Obama not running you had this major party contest between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton which we don't see today we also did not see Biden follow up the Affordable Care Act of the first first term with any a major policy change in the second term another difference between the situation today when we've had big changes between Trump and Biden so you can't compare the two elections okay a few personal questions then maybe I'll go back to the predictions uh how did you start what made you uh think that these could be the key indicators have the key indicators ever changed or increased in number all through the years when you've been predicting elections well I developed the keys by becoming with my friend beler kyus Boro of Moscow the world's leading Authority and earthquake prediction by becoming The Odd Couple of political prediction and we reconceptualized presidential elections in 1981 not as Carter versus Reagan Republican versus Democrat liberal versus conservative but in geophysical terms as stability the White House Party stays in power an earthquake the White House Party is tossed out and that conceptualization we looked at every presidential election from the election of Lincoln in 1860 to the election of Reagan in 1980 but this is 81 and we use kyus boro's method of pattern recognition to see what patterns were associated with stability and earthquake and that led to the development of the 13 Keys which were successful retrospectively from 1860 to 1980 they they've now been successful since 1984 and I have not changed a single key and you've not increased it's been 13 ever since it's still 13 as I said they are the constant Northern Star of prediction when you first did it were you nervous uh were you nervous you get it right or wrong or you got nervous a little later when you uh built a reputation as then being wrong would cost you more how when did the nervousness come in was it the first time around or much later I couldn't tell you how nervous I was when I called Ronald Reagan against all the conventional wisdom in April of 1982 was my first prediction if I was wrong in my first prediction I'd go into the dpin of political predictors and of course now on my 11th prediction in you know a very tense election so of course I'm nervous I've been nervous every time because I actually tell you who's going to win or lose so it's easy to know if I'm right or wrong I'm not like you know the clerk Nate Nate Nate Sila who compiles polls and tells you Hillary Clinton has maybe a 75% chance of winning and then when she loses he says still I told you she had a 25% chance of losing useless stuff but I can be right or wrong and I'm still at age 77 have butterflies in my stomach and the other thing is of course every four years I make half the country really years I the whole country really really mad at me but keep in mind these are nonpartisan predictions they're not endorsements I predicted about as many republican as Democratic wins I've not only predicted you know uh liberals like Barack Obama but also conservatives like Ronald Reagan and Donald Trump but yours is Black or White true or false that's it there is no gray area there is no Nate silver predictions happening uh on your t i don't hedge my predictions that's right I make calls and every day I get emails from people who claim they know better how to call the keys and my answer is simple you can be free to develop your own prediction system I encourage you to do that but if you're going to call the keys You' got to call them according to how the system defines the keys and how the keys called since 1860 I also get you know some academics and journalists criticizing me and my answer is look at my record you can't make up a 40-year record plus you know show me where you done successful predictions and none of them have of course so I quote the great philosopher wienstein and say of that which thou can't not speak let thou remain silent okay um when you started off and you were getting your predictions right who would you first call or or share this entire Victory with and who do you do it with now uh I share my predictions very broadly and when I first came up with my system and began predicting I got blasted by the professional forecasters because they claimed I committed the cardinal sin of subjectivity my indicators were not cut and dry and I explain no these are judgmental indicators they're very carefully defined and they've been answered for well over a 100 years it took about 15 to 20 years and then the professional forecasting Community totally turned around and they realized their big fancy purely statistical models didn't work and the best model was one like mine that combined statistical and judgmental indicators and suddenly the keys to the White House were the hottest thing in prediction I twice was the keynote speaker at the international forecasting Summit all right Professor liman who um uh do you get reactions from both sides you already must have got for uh for the prediction that you've made what's the harshest comment that you've heard so far since yesterday uh I always get reactions to my predictions and of course if I predict a Democrat people say you're biased towards the Democrats if I picked a republican people say you're biased towards the Republicans and of course as I've explained they're purely predictions not endorsements have nothing to do with my personal views in fact I'll give you the secret of forecasting it's not knowing math they got no math it's not knowing history they got no history it's not knowing politics although you got no politics it's keeping your own personal views out of it you'd be useless as a forecast to be wrong half the time if you forecast it according to your personal views but I have to say you know since I've made my prediction I've gotten some criticism but overwhelmingly the response has been respectful and positive realizing I'm not just talking off the top of my head I have a system that's based on how elections work and I have an unsurpassed track record but but do you remember of a harsh comment that you must read or seen or heard of um sincer prediction of Kam har I didn't catch that I said do you do you remember of a harsh comments that you must have seen read after your prediction on kamla Harris's VI I got some harsh comments but much fewer than I thought but here's the thing if you want to be a public scholar and contribute to public debate the worst thing you can get is not criticism the worst thing you can get is to be ignored so I much prefer getting criticism to being ignored of course since I go against all the conventional wisdom the pundits the posters most political science models I am going to get criticism but I have to tell you over 40 years I've heard nothing new this year same stuff I've been hearing for 40 years and my record speaks for itself nothing new the Republicans are much harsher this time around than they ever have been in the past uh but going back to the indicators now you say that you come up with the true or false to each of the 13 indicators Professor lman how do you arrive at a true SP is it through uh people do you speak is it uh what's the data for this yeah very simply it's an empirical result it's not something I just made up and we did it in 1981 with my collaborator kyus Boro and empirically we looked at every election from 1860 to 1980 we had one so-called Vector one column with wins and loses and another column with a whole set of different kinds of questions not just the 13 and using pattered recognition we discovered that the best set of yes no question questions that could distinguish between stability and earthquake in 120 years of politics were these 13 keys and the six key and you're out decision rule so this was something we discovered through research not something we just concocted off the top of our heads if we had done that we would have been you know wrong A lot of times interesting so uh empirical uh data but not ping data not speak to people and arriving at a decision on a true or FSE would any any indicator that's right because polls are snapshots they're not predictors and the error margin of polls is much greater than the pollsters would tell you they tell you it's plus and minus 3% approximately that's pure statistical error that doesn't take into account all the other errors of people not responding people lying people not having focus on the election in changing their minds uh and of course they don't know who's voting so they have to guess at the likely voters so the error margin of polls is much greater than plus and minus 3% and it's not random it's unidirectional so the polls underestimated Republican voting strength in 2016 but based on recent elections they're underestimating Democratic voting strength the big Marquee uh special election in 2024 was the New York congressional election for the seat once held by the disgraced George Santos a poll taken on the eve of the election had the Democrat had by one point he won by eight points outperforming the polls by seven points so that's why I differ from those other predictors and don't r on polls don't rely on talking to people since as I said they can change their minds who knows what they're going attend you uh you can't talk to enough people to get any reliable results so I look at the fundamentals about how elections really work and I'm really unique in that regard and once you predicted you do not change uh through the course of the campaign it stays this is this is who you've called it stays till the very end till the 5th of November this time correct once I make my final prediction I haven't changed it and sometimes I make my predictions very very early you never know when the keys will fall into place they fell into place late this time but for example in the hard to call 2012 Obama versus Romney election where a lot of pundits and pulsers got it wrong I called the keys in 2010 because I could already see them falling in place for Obama's reelection the professor lman what happened in 2000 then um were were the indicators uh not in place when you predicted Al Gore but George W bush won this is a very tight election the key is pointing to gore now when I was on the bill M show the first thing he asked me was how did you f up 2000 even if I missed that it's still nine out of 10 but I didn't I didn't mess up Florida did Bush 537 votes out of six milia but as I proved in my report to the United States Commission on civil rights which is still on their website Florida screwed up uh based on the intent of the voters Al Gore should have won Florida going over away and won the presidency and that was confirmed by an independent study several years later by Professor Walter me bang of Cornell University okay um final final two questions to you um what do you mean by Florida screw up over here like what was the mistake did they call it wrong or you saying the people voted wrong what happened in Flor in 2000 was they threw out one out of 10 or one out of nine votes cast by African-Americans who were 90% plus Gore that compared to one out of 50 discarded ballots for whites so if the discarded ballots for African-Americans had been just equal to that of whites G to won by tens of thousands of votes moreover most of those discarded africanamerican votes were not those hanging Chads or dimples but were overvotes where they punched in Gore and to make sure sure they rode in Gore so their intent was clear but Florida threw them out okay and finally Before I Let You Go uh you in in this competitive world you have you are looking at us presidential elections but all you also in your personal capacity have competed this time around uh in the Olympics if I'm not wrong uh uh what was all that about yes you know way back when in the sub Masters Division I was North American champion in the 3,000 M steeple chase a race designed for horses but run by people I don't run that anymore but I did compete I'm ag77 so I competed in the 75 to 79 age group in the 800 meter dash and the 1500 meter dash in the Maryland Senior Olympics and I want a bronze medal in the 1500 and a gold medal in the 1800 which is qualified me to compete next July at De Mo Iowa in the National Senior Olympics presuming that my body holds up at my age that's lovely to hear Professor Litman thank you so much for joining us here on India Today Global this is a massive exclusive you are actually telling us and predicting the elections here we will come back to you to see what the elections are going to really throw up and ask you you with if you've got it right or wrong depending on the results but thank you so much for sharing the indicators on which your predictions are based thank you my pleasure and you know where to find me take care take care