Harris-Trump debate preview, Congress returns amid shutdown fears and more | America Decides

[Music] KLA Harris has an economic plan that's going to help lower the cost for everyday people that's going to help families Thrive only candidate who will be on the stage tomorrow night that has shown how you rebuild an economy Donald Trump it's a pretty easy choice Trump's the reason we're in this mess to begin with yes he is the one who took down row and Unleashed all of this chaos and all of this cruelty hello everyone I'm major garan Washington welcome to America decides vice president K Harris and former president Trump are quite expectedly gearing up for their presidential debate just what you would imagine they would the candidates will face off for the first time tomorrow night that's in Philadelphia both are taking slightly different approaches in their preparation Harris has been practicing with campaign advisers standing in for Trump while Trump has had not very many of these mock debates but has been brushing up staff for SE on his various policies election day is just 57 days away tomorrow night's debate could of course prove pivotal our CBS News Battleground tracker poll shows a very tight race in three important States Michigan Pennsylvania and Wisconsin our Caitlyn Huey Burns and Edo Keefe are standing by with more on the debate but we will start with Anthony salvanto and the latest CBS News polling Anthony what can you tell us hey there major good to talk to you look this is the definition of tight right even in Pennsylvania where the debate's taking place effectively even Michigan Wisconsin I want to show you one reason why within the framework of the economy and it's this people say that their incomes aren't keeping up with inflation when people say that inflation is a major factor in their vote we find Donald Trump winning the Lion Share of those voters okay that's a Advantage Trump but that's a little bit retrospective right sort of punishing the party in power if you don't think the economy is doing well but then when I ask people okay whose policies or would their policies help the middle class you get a much more even breakdown you get slight majorities in all these these states saying they think Harris's policies will you get about half saying Trump's will but a little bit of an advantage there for Harris so framing how they approach the economy that's one way you sort of do a viewers guide to what going to see tomorrow night major and Anthony what can you tell us about the various groups that show up in our surveys and how they are supporting either Harris or Trump or how there has been any movement in those groups recently sure well one thing you want to look at I think is the gender gap and we're going to keep coming back to this because we've seen it in these states and Nationwide this is an example from Pennsylvania Harris doing better with women some of that is about the abortion issue not all of it though but that's one thing to track and that's one big group to to look at the other in these states really important are union households workingclass voters and look how tight all of that is both of them obviously we've been fighting for Union endorsements talking about workingclass voters that's all really tight as well so that's that's a couple of the key groups you know white non- col voters make up almost half the voters in these states and that's another critical group we're going to look at that's another critical group that I think you're going to have to see they're breaking towards Donald Trump but can Harris cut in to some of those numbers Major Anthony it is assumed in the Trump World than would former president Trump post on his social media platform he is talking only to his base and nobody else in America really pays much attention to those remarks no matter how incendiary or ranting they may sound what do we know about the effect of any of his social media posts on the electorate oh people pay attention they don't necessarily weigh that against their vote though by which I mean this we find seven and 10 and this is an example from Wisconsin in all the states who don't like those posts in fact they say that they're trying to be insulting toward kamla Harris but just the same a quarter of those voters about are voting for Donald Trump nonetheless and many of his supporters don't think they're insulting they like them same is in the eye of the beholder major there's a lot of trump voters who feel that the message is coming out of that Harris campaign they also consider insulting yes they tell us in this poll that they'd like to hear positive messages that they'd like to hear good things from both candidates it's politics and so they may not get what they want but that's how they feel Major Anthony salvant always a pleasure thank you very much Caitlyn huy Burns and Edo Keefe join me now want to bring in you both uh Ed let me start with you at the white house uh from the Harris campaign's perspective how important is tomorrow evening's debate oh it it's crucial major I think they see some of the surveys released by us and others over the weekend that continue to show there are gaps to fill in regarding who she is what she's about what she would do and then the conversations I've had with Democrats today across the Spectrum across the country they've said she's really got to set up a contrast and give a sense of what she would do going forward spend less time going back if she can Stoke him into personal attacks on her or grievances that he likes to air so often that's a net positive for them because it will remind those handful of undecided voters in these seven states or so what he's been about and what he could continue to be about for the next four years and if she's got some kind of a positive looking ahead message that helps uh it also is sort of the one and only chance they have to contrast side by side with him they've never met before she's been in the uh house chamber when he gave said State of the Union that's about it but they've never been face to face she's never fac faed an adversary quite like this she's a good debater since she was a DA an AG and a Senate candidate she's she can she can take on competition but never quite someone like Trump and so that's what these last few days of intense reparation out in Pittsburgh have been all about Ed before I go to Kaylin I want to ask you also about what difference if any has it made in these preparations for the vice president that it has been determined that the mics more often than not will be muted in these exchanges look they're trying to cast this as a real dis Advantage for them and I think that's partly designed to lower expectations so that if she can find a way uh she looks even more masterful at this the reason they're frustrated by it is remember some of her best moments have come when putting men in their place whether it was telling Mike Pence to stop interrupting her whether it was sharply questioning Brett Kavanaugh or Neil Gorsuch back in the day during Supreme Court confirmation hearings and so if the mics are off and she can't provoke him while she's got hers on or vice versa their concern is it's going to be harder for her to create a moment or two that ends up in your Instagram feed the next day that ends up in an ad that ends up in our Recaps of it on the CBS mornings the next day whether she can do it some other way I'm sure they've worked on that and I'm sure they were working on that ahead of this but they're trying to sort of just put that out there and say oh gosh if only the mics hadn't been muted maybe we'd have a better shot at this still undoubtedly they've been working on it despite what they might suggest ad Keef please stand by kayn Huey Burns is in Philadelphia kayln talk to us about the Trump preparation well the Trump campaign likes to kind of Pride itself on the idea that they say that Trump doesn't need the kind of preparations and doesn't do the kind of preparations that kamla Harris or his previous opponent Joe Biden did they argue that he's doing interviews with media that he's out there talking uh in rallies off the cuff on the campaign Trail and of course you can argue whether that is whether that does ACR to his benefit uh when you look at the polling but uh they kind of Pride themselves on that he has a more informal approach to that and it could have worked to his advantage in that first debate he essentially knocked out his opponent during the race this however is a completely different set of circumstances namely he is now running against a woman and the campaign has been asked you know how that changes their approach and Tulsi gabber the former uh Congress and former democratic congresswoman who's now advising Trump and helping with the preparations said today that to kind of battle that or to to kind of confront that they are going to argue uh what Trump's policies do for women compared to the current uh status quo but it's also interesting major uh a senior adviser to the campaign Jason Miller told reporters today that it is impossible to prepare for a debate against Donald Trump in their view because he said said that going against Donald Trump preparing to go against Donald Trump is akin to preparing to go against Muhammad Ali or uh Floyd Mayweather uh I you know and so far as you don't know what angle he's going to to come at you with you don't know how he's going to come at you um I don't know a lot about boxing admittedly but in my view that is setting pretty high expectations for this kind of performance to make that kind of comparison so as much as they argue that this is a moment uh that they believe all the stakes are high for KLA Harris they're setting some pretty high expectations for themselves as well today yeah they're setting high expectations and yet the former president is on record saying that the vice president is incompetent can't put two sentences together is unintelligent I mean how do you square those two kinds of orientations yeah that's exactly right major and uh what they are trying to do what the campaign says their goal for Success how they would define success tomorrow night is if the the former president can attach Biden and all of the baggage of this Administration in their view to kamla Harris because that's what they've been trying to do over the past six weeks or so uh essentially say she is a standin for Biden and attach all of his uh policies and all of his uh perceived um failures to her and in polling you know you haven't necessarily seen that yet although the race has certainly tightened as you mentioned in those key Battlegrounds so that is how they are defining success for their campaign for tomorrow joining us from the City of Brotherly Love Caitlin Huey Burns and from the north line of the White House Ed O'Keefe thank you very much here's something you will be very interested to know we will have special editions of America decides tomorrow from the debate spin room in Philadelphia at 5:00 p.m. and 7 p.m. Eastern the debate itself hosted we should note by ABC News can be watched right here on CBS News 247 starting at 900 p.m. Eastern vice president Harris is in Pittsburgh ahead of tomorrow's debate we'll speak with a senior campaign adviser about Harris's preparations your streaming America [Music] decides welcome back to America decides we're just one day away from K Harris and Donald Trump's big showdown in Philadelphia Michael Tyler is here to further discuss that he is the Harris walls campaigns communications director and joins us from Wilmington Delaware Michael always good to see you it was said at the Democratic Convention in Chicago I Know You Remember by many prominent Democrats there will be bad polls the race will tighten don't lose focus don't lose heart how are you digesting this weekend's polling data yeah well thank you major for having me listen I think with the polling data uh shows us what we know to be true this is going to be a very very close competitive uh presidential campaign it's going to come down to tens of thousands of votes uh in a handful of States uh and so that's why uh nights like tomorrow night uh matter but frankly what matters even more is the work that this campaign is going to do coming off of the debate uh on Tuesday night when we're hitting the road uh and campaigning across every single Battleground State we're going to hit every media Market in every Battleground State uh to between Thursday and and Sund day of this week because we have to leave no stone untouched over the course of the last two months of this campaign uh one campaign is putting in the work to do that the vice presidents is doing so uh Donald Trump remains to be seen uh the degree to which they're going to put in the effort to actually get the job done but we know uh between now and November we're going to do everything at our disposal to reach every single voter that is going to help us decide the pathway to 270 electoral votes who is the favorite and who was the underdog tomorrow night well listen I think the vice president has made very clear that she sees herself as the underdog in this race right uh you've running against a former president you're running uh against somebody who uh as relates to tomorrow night is obviously uh this will be his seventh uh presidential uh general election debate the vice president debated last in 2020 against Mike Pence uh he's also a showman who's going to be uh somewhat restrained by the muted microphones given the fact that his team uh decided to overrule his decision here uh but at the end of the day the vice president is going to be ready to present uh her vision for where she wants to take this country and contrast that against whatever version of Donald Trump shows up no matter what his behavior is like I think you're going to see him uh in his extreme project 2025 agenda on full display not just tomorrow night but for the remainder of this campaign and so the vice president sees this is an opportunity to continue to introduce herself to the American people to continue to uh demonstrate what her vision is going to be uh for the next four years and to make sure that the electorate understands the fundamental choice in this election after the first debate which involved president pres Biden and former president Trump the vice president was interviewed and said that the former president lied many times during that debate is she going to fact check relentlessly Point by point the former president if that happens again well listen I'm not going to get into too many of the previews uh of the debate strategy here but I think it's it should come as no surprise uh to the American people that Donald Trump will in fact get up on that debate stage uh in lie for uh the entirety of it that's what you see out of Trump every single day and so that's why you know the vice president of course will make sure that people understand what the truth is but this campaign will make sure that people understand exactly uh the threat that Donald Trump poses to the American people on every single issue no matter what he says on abortion we'll make sure that the American people understand uh that if he's able to regain power he does plan to enact a National Abortion ban with or without Congress we'll make sure that the American people understand uh that if he returns to power he wants to do nothing more than give more tax cuts to the ultra wealthy uh and more handouts to corporations we make sure that people understand as he himself often tweets or puts on Truth social as he did over this weekend that if he's able to Reg gain power he intends to jail his political opponents and uh tear down the Constitution as me as he has made clear uh so we know the type of person that's going to show up in the debate stage this campaign is going to remain disciplined and make sure that the people actually understand the true nature of the choice in this election Michael to what degree does the vice president have to convey to the American public strength similar to that of former president Trump well listen I think what she has to convey is what she's been doing uh since July 21st right she's speaking uh to the fundamental choice in this election and she's speaking to what the American people actually want right they're they're they're looking for a new way for it and that's what she has been presenting uh over the course of the past few weeks obviously you saw it in Chicago during the convention but you've seen her do this out on the stump uh demonstrate how she intends uh to govern this country if elected and so uh we'll certainly do that tomorrow night and contrast that against the uh sort of dark vision that Donald Trump has all the work that he wants to do to roll back the progress that we have made the work that he wants to do uh to again enact a National Abortion ban the so the chaos that he wants to sew the division that he wants to seow I think that stands uh complete opposite to the way that the vice president wants to govern right no matter the issue whether it's the economy that she wants to build so that people have uh the opportunity to actually get get ahead instead of just get by whether we're talking about the fundamental rights and freedoms that she's going to stand up for on every issue you have uh a person in the vice president who is actually working to bring people together uh in search of solutions and on on the other side you have Donald Trump uh who's running a campaign that's based upon personal grievance that's based upon Revenge that's based upon retribution uh it's based upon service of nobody other than Donald Trump and so I think the vice president will be uh successful in demonstrating exactly that contrast not just tonight but for the remainder of this campaign Michael Tyler thank you thank you so much coming up part of my conversation with former White House communications director now Harris endorser Anthony scaramucci on how former president Trump is probably getting ready for tomorrow night's debate that's next you're streaming America [Music] decides welcome back to America decides the 2020 election was maddening for many election officials baseless allegations of fraud harassment and threats of violence were just some of what they had to endure and to a certain degree are still enduring last week election officials in seven Battleground States convened in Georgia to compare notes I sat down with four of them to discuss their preparations for November in Michigan for years as we've gone through this process before we always say we hope for the best but plan for every contingency so that involves a lot of anxiety and a lot of scenario planning and a lot of thinking about the worst that could happen and then making a plan for it it's not just Democrats who are concerned three of the election officials that I spoke to are Republicans and they're worried but also are confident that they're well prepared the biggest thing I worry about is the possibility of violence again regardless of outcome by people who lose we're prepared we know what we've seen in the last two cycles we're sort of ready for anything but I've got great faith in our team and I've got great faith in the people America Copa County you can see more of my conversation with Battleground election officials tomorrow night on the CBS Evening News Anthony scaramucci is predicting how his former boss Donald Trump will approach tomorrow's debate I spoke with the former White House communications director for my podcast the takeout looking forward to this first and possibly only presidential debate between kamla Harris and former president Trump do you consider it from now until election day the most important event so I think if it's a neutral outcome then I don't think it's the most important event but I think if somebody damages themselves or somebody outshines the other then it be becomes important you know in 2020 major um Joe Biden bested Donald Trump in the first debate he was a little wild probably had covid at the time uh and president Trump dropped five points after that debate and he never regained ground after that so um uh if something Monumental like that happens yes then I do think it's an important thing what would you say is most on the mind of trump going into this encounter well he wants to embarrass her you know his his whole thing is that he's very thin on policy you know some people say that uh he's an inch deep you know he's a very wide lake with an inch deep I don't see it that way he's like a contact lens deep and so he doesn't have a lot of policy chops so he's going to want to embarrass her so he's hoping that some an attacks will unravel her and he wants to J to position her as unpresidential compared to him and so uh some of that is uh imagery uh and so he'll he'll try to bully her at the debate that's my prediction uh it's been successful for him the Playbook has been successful for him so he's not going to change the Playbook now you can watch more of my interview with Anthony scaramucci this Sunday at 10:30 p.m. Eastern right here on CBS News it's Donald Trump's most blatant sign yet that he may not accept defeat in November the very controversial social media post and what they mean if he loses the election that's next your streaming America decides welcome back to America decides former president Trump is making headlines and that's putting it mildly that have nothing to do with his plans to make a pitch the American public in tomorrow night's debate he's making headlines because he's pledging and has pledged on social media to prosecute political opponents threats are related to false claims that the 2020 election was stolen something he admitted didn't happen even last week now some of those threats are saying he's going to punish prosecute and jail for long terms anyone involved in the 2024 election if he's unhappy with the result I want to discuss that with our political panel Nancy Cook is here National politics reporter with Bloomberg News and Dave wio with semor on what planet Dave does this make legal political or constitutional sense to go down this road for Trump not in any of those categories and he's gone back and forth on this I'm not trying to soft pedal it he's gone back and forth he's he's demanded credit for not going after Hillary Clinton for I don't know what would have been the case in 2017 and he's and he has regretted not going after his political opponents because the way he frames every trial every investigation is that they're just trying to take him out so it makes a lot of sense to Republicans it's teeing up for tomorrow's debate it's another example of the the universe the media universe that Donald Trump exists in right now is different than the one he had in 1620 it's one where you say something like this and you get cheered for it it's not one where you need to make new converts to convince people you're going to behave responsibly with power Nancy well I was in Palm Beach meeting with a bunch of his top campaign officials uh last month and they really want him to continue to talk about inflation the economy and immigration that is where polling shows he has a huge Advantage with swing state voters and they really feel like if he sticks with those messages he'll be successful but meanwhile in the past week we've seen him you know talk about jailing his political opponents he on Saturday talked about imposing 100% tariffs on some countries uh you know he is promoting very extreme policies at a time when the election is so close in all these swing states with Harris and I think that if he stuck to the issues where he did have the advantage he would probably be doing potentially much better and do statements like this which Trump makes with frequency alarm those closest to him in the Inner Circle advising him I think that the people in the inner circle around him sort of believe what a lot of trump advisers have long believed that you know what he does or what he says his rhetoric does not always match his action but that is actually not true I mean we saw after he lost the 2020 election he kept talking about how the election was stolen uh you know some of his advisers that I talked to when I covered the Trump White House we're talking about his second term agenda and then we saw January 6th where in his followers tried to take back power and stop the certification of the election results so I think that what we've seen about Trump in the past is that you do have to take these comments that he makes quite seriously uh daveid Nancy I want to share with you some very new polling data from CBS News I want to put this up this is about the Senate races in the Battleground States we reported on yesterday showing a close race between the vice president and former president Trump so in order uh let's go Michigan Alyssa slotkin 48% over Republican nominee Mike Rogers 41% we'll go to the next one which is Pennsylvania Bob Casey the incumbent 48% Dave McCormack the Republican nominee 41% again Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin 51% Republican nominee Eric hovi 43% all of these show outside the margin of error leads for the Democrats and running against ahead of KLA Harris what does that tell you Dave these are also all opponents that Mitch McConnell likes I should say republican nominees that Mitch mccon likes these are not candidates who got over the line with the Trump endorsement of primary and the part's embarrassed by them they really wanted David mccormic to be the nominee in pennslvania they cleared the field they really wanted Eric Hub once it was clear Mike Gallagher was going to run for Senate they really it wanted Mike Rogers who who dropped a presential presidential race which he probably would have lost to do this uh and you're seeing a separation everywhere uh Swing Swing States let's let's focus on the ones that have the Senate races um it Democrats are doing better with non-white voters and with younger white men uh than kamla Harris is Trump is doing better with those voters than the rest of his ticket even I was in North Carolina last week even North Carolina Mark Robinson African-American lieutenant governor running for governor been hit across Republic as the Republican hit across the Airways for controversial things he said on Facebook he's doing worse with those voters than Donald Trump uh than Donald Trump is so the the party for all the things TRD Trump is doing that might hurt his campaign a given day he has this appeal that has not translated down ballot Nancy is this just the power of incumbency or is there something that these candidates are doing that Harris should pay closer attention to well Harris should probably pay closer attention to it but also it's just so striking because it's such a flip from where we were earlier in the summer when you know Biden was still on the ticket and uh you know Democrats were largely cautioning the rest of the party people like house Speaker or former house Speaker Nancy Pelosi were saying look if Biden stays on the ticket we're totally underwater in these Senate races and so it's remarkable to me that just that with Harris ascending to the top of the T ticket she doesn't have numbers like they do but the Senate races are just showing much more promise for the Democrats and that's the Senate is really sort of their weakest part of the map and so I think that that is a good sign for them and Dave as you know Democrats are feeling bullish about their prospects in the house relatively bullish about Harris do you see a scenario in which if everything breaks Harris's way they win all three uh they would need to pull out if not Montana need to win a surprise in Texas or in Florida there is no math that gets in the Senate without that so it's still you talk to even optimistic Democrats they're they're they're thinking about a house that would that would follow the Harris's agenda a senate that would stimy this or that there's already some conversation about what you can offer to Lisa marowski and Susan Collins the Collins who I think could be who'd be in cycle in maybe her final ter maybe not uh already getting ready for a world where there be some moderate Republicans who might want move on because imagine this world for Harris defeats Donald Trump he's dropped two in a row what does somebody like Alise marowsky or Susan Collins think now how much do they want to move on are they willing to deal on nominees or on immigration or something see we didn't talk about the debate at all we talked about other really cool stuff Dave wagle and Nancy Cook thank you so very much New Hampshire Governor Chris sonunu Republican up there being hailed as a hero imagine that after he helped save a choking man at a speed eating competition this past weekend the governor hosted the Hampton Beach lobster roll eating cont contest apparently that's a thing up there when he noticed that a contestant was signaling for help while choking on his food the governor rushed toward the man gave him the heick maneuver until First Responders took over as soon as the food was dislodged this speed eater went right back to the contest as Governor sununu put it quote he ate another seven lobster rolls after that right down the gullet as if there's any other way government shut down looms as lawmakers return to Capitol Hill will speak with House Majority Whip and and Republican congressman from Minnesota Tom emmer about this funding deadline that's next your streaming America [Music] decides welcome back to America decides lawmakers are back on Capitol Hill following a weeks long summer recess to address yet another fast approaching government shutdown deadline funding for the government runs out on October 1st that's roughly three weeks from today House Republicans are pushing A continuing resolution that would keep the government funded through March 28th it is coupled with a house approved Republican bill that would require Americans to provide proof of citizenship in order to vote in federal elections the White House has strongly criticized this proposal house major Jord Whip and Minnesota Republican Congressman Tom emmer joins us now Tom it's great to see you thanks for being here so there's a continuing resolution to avoid a government shutdown pending will that pass this week in the Republican controlled House of Representatives uh the Republicans in the house are definitely going to move a stop Gap funding bill I will whip the current form of it tonight which is uh the save act right uh which requires only American citizens vote in us uh Federal elections and then uh will you have the votes to pass that iteration of this continuing resolution oh we may I'm I'm we're going to be whipping it tonight may not we're going to be whipping it tonight we'll know better where we're at tonight major not trying to be evasive the goal is to pass it this week uh and then move on to what everybody wants to get done before uh yes no will there be a government shutdown no I don't believe there will be how does this get resolved I think Republicans and Democrats get this thing done before the end of the month and that thing that gets done before the end of the month extends spending authority to the end of the year or longer well you have to have a willing dance partner and at least under the house proposal it'll have the save act in it and it'll have a six Monon uh resolution uh the Senate don't know yet if they're uh interested in that long of a period sounds like they're not but we do hear that they're not interested in the save act which is frankly pretty amazing when you consider that 87% of Americans think that it's not a bad idea to have people prove their citizenship in order to register to vote so it'll be interesting if they say that's actually a poison pill in the deal Garrett a major I do this to you all the time don't I yeah too many hits to the head but the uh literally if that's their poison pill what does that tell the American people you know as well as I do Congressman that the statistical probability or actual presence of undocumented people participating in US elections is extremely small I listen what we have are tens of millions of people coming across our Southern border I don't know what statistics you can look in the rearview mirror and say that all applies to what we're looking at right now you've had a wide openen border under this Administration you've had more than 10 million people come illegally across the border and it's nice of you to call them undocumented the fact is they are illegally in this country and that needs to be dealt with they should not be participating in elections my State you got a governor who voted uh who signed a law that allows illegals to get driver's licenses how do you guarantee that they're not going to use that license and attempt to vote they may not know any better but they don't the statistics show over and over again that they don't and they haven't is this a problem looking a solution rather looking for a problem is it really I I'm if it's if it's a real thing if uh they believe that only American citizens are voting in US elections major then there shouldn't be a problem with this uh cuz you're just confirming what's already happening if you believe that but instead they're saying it's a poison pill and they're saying even though it's already uh the case uh they're not in favor of it doesn't make any sense you can't have it both ways last week former president Trump said he lost the 2020 election by a whisker conceding something he had refused to concede for almost four years can we now as a nation put to rest the lie about 2020 election that it was stolen from former president Trump major we should be talking about the issues right now that matter to people in this country about the inflation that's killing middle class in this country about the open border Southern border that's not only uh contributing to all kinds of people who we don't even know what their background is coming across our borders but fentanyl overdoses in all these small towns across the country and we should be talking about what peace and stability around the globe looked like under the last Administration that's what we should be talking about and that frankly is going to be the topic tomorrow night in Philadelphia when I was in Milwaukee there was a degree of confidence I'd never encountered before the Republican convention talking about expanding the map Virginia New Hampshire Minnesota would you say Minnesota is up for grab still or has the election shifted away and better for Trump to focus elsewhere uh well when it comes to Minnesota look I I the policies of kamla Harris and Donald Trump are going to determine the presidency Donald Trump has already showed what an America First policy looks like I would argue that over the last three and a half years KLA Harris has showed us what an America last strategy looks like uh the only difference by putting Tim Walls on the ticket you may have put Minnesota in play I don't know if you noticed last week but before Tim Walls was named as her running mate kamla Harris enjoyed a 10-point Advantage much different from Joe Biden uh in Trump head up once she was anointed and was uh was uh re created she had a 10-point lead and she put Tim Wallace on the ticket and she lost five of those right away so he's not a very popular guy at home and uh would you suggest to the Trump campaign that Minnesota is in play and it ought to put resources into Minnesota I think you got to be looking everywhere for votes period one other thing for former president Trump to say over the weekend that he will win without a single vote being cast mail out balance haven't even gone out and that he will prosecute people or wants to prosecute people who are in position of an election Administration or donors to KLA Harris what does that tell you I I think he is going to win and I think uh he's that's a think not a will no no I I think it's pretty easy to look at what this election's all about on the one side you've got double digit inflation like we haven't seen in 40 years people like to say that oh inflation is coming down major people in my neck of the woods and all across this country go into the grocery store every week they see how much they're paying for things on average $1,200 more a month than they were paying for the same basket of goods just three and A2 years ago the gas tank uh the crime the open border the instability all around the globe whether it's Ukraine or Israel or other places uh it's pretty clear the damage that has been done over the last three and a half years and I think the only candidate who will be on the stage tomorrow night that has shown how you rebuild an economy that's shown how you seal the southern border that's actually shown how you can maintain peace and stability around the globe Donald Trump it's a pretty easy Choice Tom Emer thanks for your time thank you letting Freedom Ring perhaps how house Democrats are making the inalienable right the focus of their reelection bids that's next you're streaming America decides welcome back to American decides in more ways than one Beyonce's hit song Freedom has kind of become The Unofficial anthem for kamla Harris's presidential campaign now in a memo reviewed by CBS News the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is urging an emphasis on freedom in close house races I want to bring in our Scott McFarland Scott walk us through your new reporting on this CBS News got a hold of this new memo from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in which they're urging their own members and their campaign advisers to adopt this Freedom message in their campaign platform and their campaign messaging obviously that would kind of coincide with what vice president Harris is saying but they also take this interpretation of the word Freedom that they think can be mechanized effectively in their campaigns to expand freedom to not just protection of democracy but women's reproductive rights to issues countering project 2025 which they argue um may be encroaching too much on the executive branch and its freedoms um but also I think it's indicative of the different complexion politically of these house races versus other Battleground State races because so many of these competitive house races are in states that are more traditionally blue New York has a half dozen competitive races California has at least a half dozen competitive races from the house Democrats campaign strategy they think that type of messaging is effectively or especially effective in States like that so those of us old enough to remember and who've read a few history books remember FDR Franklin Del Roosevelt call about the four talk about the Four Freedoms is this a kind of 21st century echo of that kind of either messaging or emphasis I think it's good campaign messaging to have that type of word associated with whatever argument you're trying to make whether it fits like a glove or not one of the more interesting conversations I had today was with the Democratic Challenger in the Pennsylvania 10th congressional district this is a democratic Challenger against Scott Perry the multi-term Republican from South Central Pennsylvania and I asked her about this idea of freedom and she immediately segwayed from talking about democracy in January 6 to women's Reproductive Rights almost synthesizing those two somewhat different issues beneath the same heading so it it to a degree it's branding but the house Democrats are urging their own members to adopt this thinking it to be efficacious what's the economic tie-in they first of all there's a tie-in about having the freedom to make your own decisions with your own money I mean can make the argument that that goes into tax policies where are we giving our tax cuts where are we shifting our tax policies again that fits Under The Branding concept but you can see a history of Democrats doing this let me take you back to 2022 in that special election in August 2022 the First Federal Election after the dobs decision the Democratic Challenger used the words freedom and transition to abortion rights women's Reproductive Rights utilizing it for the first time and the Democrats overachieved in that special election and won it in Upstate New York Scott you know Republicans would tell you hey we own Freedom we've owned freedom for decades Democrats can't encroach there they got no purchase and the Republicans with their emphatic response to our reporting said Americans are looking for freedom from vice president Harris's history of policies you can see how it's adopted and mechanized by both parties but this is a this is as much about campaign um lingo campaign jargon campaign messaging as it is about the platforms because these two parties in so many of these Battleground states have already spent a lot of money and a lot of airtime explaining their platforms and there's an Afghanistan report worth noting yeah this quite separate from our conversation about this uh d c memo long awaited multiple years from the House Republicans in their investigation of the tragedies in 2021 at Abate in Afghanistan it's about 350 Pages the cover shot shows President Biden but there are 285 ref ref es in this report to the quote Biden Harris Administration and what they did clearly trying to connect vice president Harris to all their findings a few top lines of the report they say that the Biden Administration let that US Embassy stay too large for too long leaving those they vulnerable in the case of an attack and for the collapse of the Afghan government they also criticize them for leaving the Abbey gate open for those seeking to get Refuge but leaving members vulnerable for attack they also criticized the Biden Administration for leaving Weaponry by the billions and equipment by the billions in Afghanistan Democrats respond major saying that it was the Trump Administration that put this date on the calendar in the first place and Drew Down US military prematurely too quickly leaving all this vulnerable this is what happens when you put this kind of report out between Labor Day and election day you leave it prone to weaponizing for campaigns Scott McFarland I am going to do you a favor you didn't even ask I'm going to relieve you of the Curiosity you might have about election forecast here's my advice and my gift ignore them they have no mathematical or predictive value whatsoever they are less reliable in fact than the least reliable weather forecast now we do not do election forecasts here other news organizations do I'm not here to fault their motives or their methods because we have sort of come to believe that data and correct assumptions about that data can guide us to answers we most crave and who doesn't crave the answer to the question who's going to win the problem with election forecast is there simply isn't enough data a recent article in Politico by Justin Grimmer a professor of public policy at Stanford argued that projections we use in other walks of life say the future of stock prices the aformentioned weather or how to Target advertising rely statistically speaking on Millions upon on millions of observations of behavior often collected on a near continuous basis this allows for predictive confidence that is not how presidential elections work if I asked you I bet you could not tell me how many presidential elections we've had this will be America's 60th as we know we have one presidential election every four years 60 is simply not a large enough data set it's even more fragile when measured the p passage of time of four years now lots of behavior variations can leak into predictions Based on data sets that are that small over that elongated sequence of time Professor Grimmer argues for accuracy's sake it would take at least 28 more years of presidential elections or brace yourself up to 2588 years more of presidential elections to create a data set large enough to give us true confidence in any predictive model now I don't know about you but I don't have 28 years to wait or 2588 years yesh so no disrespect to those who build such models and no disrespect to those who have put some stock in them I'm just trying to save you some time some energy maybe some emotional bandwidth election forecasts beile but do not reveal they entrance but do not explain they Dazzle but do not determine leave them at least until election year 4612 that does it for today we'll be back with another edition of America decides tomorrow at 5:00 p.m. Eastern The Daily Report with John Dickerson starts right now