START THESE Sleepers in Week 1 for a WIN! 💎🎯 | Lineup Decisions & Fantasy Football Sleepers

Intro | Like & Subscribe (Helps Us TONS!!) welcome to the jwb weekly Sleepers for week one I'm Jake that's Tim we're going to run through our sleepers we're going to run through some critical lineup choices we got our week one waiver wire Heroes and you know what here's a little 10-second intro to give you guys some time to go and subscribe welcome you're listening to jwb Fantasy [Music] Football thanks for listening all right guys we are going to hop right into our sleepers segment but I just want to give you guys the reminder that if at any point during this video you guys are enjoying the content make sure you smash the like button if you're not enjoying the video for any reason make sure you guys go down and tell us why um but for our Weekly Sleepers sleeper segment here just want to quickly explain how this works so we're going to give you a running back and wide receiver that are currently ranked outside the top 36 uh in the half PPR rankings on the fantasy pros expert consensus ranking or ECR that we think will finish inside the top 30 at their position this week and then we're going to do the exact same thing for quarterback and tight end but we're going to shorten that down to the top 18 at their position giving you guys that we think are going to finish within the top 12 I'm going to go ahead and start us off this week with our running back of choice so the running back that I Weekly Sleepers | RB Ezekiel Elliot think is ranked outside the top 36 but will finish inside the top 30 is none other than the dust man himself Ezekiel Elliott uh he's currently the ECR running back 38 for the week um Zeke is the projected starter in Dallas and that offense I still think is going to be really good I don't anticipate too much changing there um and with Zeke we know he's not the rusher that he once was but he still showed some prowess in the receiving game where he actually led the entire New England Patriots offense in receptions in 2023 Cleveland tough defense tough matchup I think we're all aware of that but I think Zeke is going to be the guy in this offense I don't think Rico dle has shown us much of anything in fact I looked and 20% of his yards last year came in one game which was week 18 where he wasn't even really playing against like a legitimate NFL team so for me it's G to be absolutely zero surprise to see Zeke leading this backfield and if he finds his way into the end zone which this offense is high powered enough for him to do I think he Weekly Sleepers | WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba should have zero issues being a top 30 back in week one but with that being said Tim why don't we roll over to the receiver my my wide receiver choice this week is jsn I'm going to be heavily heavily faithful this year in jsn I think uh he's still underrated um currently ECR wide receiver 43 now after the week five by last last year in the 11 weeks um that he played six of those 11 weeks were over 12 points per game some of them were even into the high teens and wide receiver 30 which is the Mark we're looking to to break into was 13 points per game on the season so I think that he's right there just at that underneath that 12 points per game where he wasn't even really that he wasn't opened up completely which I think we're going to see a very different approach to jsn this year I also believe that with Lockett having his injury struggles and things of that nature that could be a very slow start in terms of dependency on locket things like that as well as um his yards for Target increased from uh the week five by where his highest in in the first four weeks was 5.67 yards per Target and there was only one game in the last 11 games where he fell below that number one time so I think that we've already seen a very big shift even in his rookie season now we're going to see The increased Target numbers yeah I like it and one thing that's important to note is just looking back the past couple of years if we're looking at like week one performance for wide receiver 30 2022 it was 11.3 points last year was just 10 points like they're really they don't have to have a spectacular game to hit that threshold and there's a a world where jsn you know really takes a step up in this offense so I think that's a really good call um we're GNA roll this right over to you for the quarterback of the week yeah I'm Weekly Sleepers | QB Justin Herbert I'm not going to have a ton of explanation on this one it's Justin Herbert he's qb9 I think that we you roll with Justin Herbert he had four games last year in the the full games that he played under 14 points or 14 points or less I should say and the rest of them the rest of the eight games were 20 plus which 20 plus is really a great threshold that was kind of my measuring stick for a long time but we only had I want to say eight full-time starters and I think it was nine total quarterbacks last year that even hit that yard that points per game average so if you're breaking 20 points you're really in a in a pretty Elite group and for me Justin Herbert is just too talented of a player he's going to run more even if they have a running offense they're not going to completely take away the the passing game because you don't win games in the NFL if you do that as well as like I said there's opportunity for bootlegs things like that where he could be open rushing down the sideline or easily finding one-on-one um coverage because of the fact they were committed so heavily to the run I I like Justin Herbert as long as he's not out with the foot and he's playing I have no no doubts he should be playing in in in most lineups yeah I really like the call there as well I think the rushing upside of Justin Herbert is not being stated Enough by people um just for our last sleeper of the week looking at the uh tight ends out here again should really be no surprise to anybody if you've followed me on Twitter which you should I'm funny sometimes um it's gonna be Weekly Sleepers | TE Jonnu Smith Janu Smith currently the ECR tight end 23 on the week both Wadd and Tyreek have missed times during Camp uh with injuries at various points you know supposedly they're both good to go no setbacks ya y y regardless it wouldn't see me or it wouldn't surprise me to see jnu take a pretty big role in this offense um amongst all tight ends with at least 30 targets last year there was one tight end that was able to match jnu's production after the catch which was George KD What offense does Miami run a variation of the Shanahan offense so the the yak game is very important in this offense being able to get open and produce after the catch is really really important in this offense and I think they targeted Janu Smith basically because he can do that and Durham SMI is like a bucket with legs like just wholly unathletic good blocker doesn't get used much elsewhere um I shouldn't say that he actually got a decent amount of targets last year but if you extrapolate jnu's efficiency to Durham smice targets from last year we're talking like Titan nine on the year like this guy could be really really productive in this offense I'm even going to look at the matchup here Jacksonville in my mind projects to be one of the weaker teams against TI ends in 2024 uh in 2023 they allowed the seventh most points per week to tight ends and I don't think their off their defense improved quite as much as their offense did this year um so I don't think I think Janu can be a high volume guy in this offense High yardage guy in this the offense and I think because of the skill set of this offense end zone is definitely in play as well for him so and as we know if you score a touchdown at tight end you're probably a top 12 tight end on the week so why not have fun and uh start some Janu Smith here and there I want to just add one point not even to Janu just in general especially when it comes to defenses so earlier so early in the season it shouldn't be so much of a determination to sit guys I don't have an issue if you think that a defense is weak but don't overestimate how strong a defense is that doesn't mean they're going to for sure first turn turnovers or anything of that nature so if you have faith in a guy or you have a strong belief in a guy you should definitely start him yeah and I think we can look at coaches historic usage too so when we've seen an offense like this one like we can take that into account but when teams are you know potentially new coordinators new players new scheme you know there's so many things that can go into it trying to play matchups too early can get a little tricky I just love Janu and Jacksonville is bad against tight ends over the last couple years so figured it was a fun point to throw in there but with that segment done we are going to hop over to Weekly Lineup Decisions our critical lineup choices so for this one we are going to give you a top 30 running back and wide receiver that we think will finish six spots higher than their ECR and three players at each position uh at running back and wide receiver I should say that we think they will outscore and we're going to do the same thing for a quarterback two and tight end two by ranking in the ECR which is tight quarterback and tight end 13 through 24 that we think will finish at top eight in at their position on the week um plus one top eight ranked player that we think they will outscore and we are going to go ahead and start us off uh with Tim and the running back Weekly Lineup Decisions | RB Alvin Kamara yeah I'm going Elvin Kamar um once again a guy I'm just going to have great faith in until he proves me wrong he was RB 11 last year and only scored three touchdowns total on the season he's we're going up against basically a black box in Carolina we don't know what we're going to get yet it could be a shootout it could be a turnover heavy laden game which gives good field position the big thing that we need to focus on though with Kamar is to make sure that the reception numbers are in line with expectation when it comes to what we're expecting for performance so if he does get the receptions I have no doubt he's going to uh perform better than his ECR 19 rank I actually think he's going to go top 12 this week I think he's going to score at least a touchdown maybe more than one we know that uh that the Saints uh passing defense last year was pretty decent I understand that we're not projecting heavily or strong um in terms of our in terms of our confidence of how these defenses is going to play yet until we have more information maybe week three or four that we know more about these defenses but if they do play up to Snuff at all I think that there could be great field position like I said in this game for the Saints to score even more I love it it's tomorrow I mean dude just catches passes then the three players I have in ECR projection that I think will go behind actually finish behind him on the week I have P peo James Connor and Josh Jacobs I love that we both just hate Isaiah Pacho it's kind of fun I don't hate him I just hate the fact that his his floor is so low every week I don't think the ceiling's that high either but that's another conversation for a different day but speaking of the chief's offense uh my top 30 wide receiver choice for the week is Rashid rice currently the ECR wide Weekly Lineup Decisions | WR Rashee Rice receiver 24 uh we got confirmation today Hollywood Brown will not be playing week one he is listed as out um so it's rice and Kelce projected to be the top two target earners there say what you want about Xavier worthy maybe he's good but if his usage is anything like we saw out of Rice's usage last year through Andy Reid they'll take some time before really getting him settled into a legitimate full-time role but that being said from the by week on Rashid rice averaged 17 points per game in full PPR I will say that um but rice is projecting for a really high volume role in this offense in my opinion and I think this is going to be a high-scoring game against Baltimore these are two offenses that can come out and show out at any given time so really really like getting rice in my lineups this week three guys that I think uh he will outscore based off of their ECR Amari Cooper at wide receiver 22 Debo Samuel at wide receiver 16 and even Jaylen watd currently ranked as wide receiver 12 I like the upside here for Rice 12 feels very high for Wadd very high that's what I was thinking it'll be really interesting to see how the Chiefs come out this year to to provide stress on the defense or put stress on the defense when it comes to their play design as well as their um just kind of their alignments because of how different this team is even just from last year having more pass catchers that you can have faith in it'd be really really fun to see how they they come up this year dude I was thinking about it imagine having to stop dagger against Xavier worthy Rashid rice and Travis Kelce you better have linebackers that can run you better have a lot of people that can run because then you have to you have to be available at every depth so see what happens it'll be interesting but I think rice uh I think he's really underrated this year um which is not how I felt necessarily going into the offseason but doesn't seem like that suspension is coming anytime this year so I'm riding Weekly Lineup Decisions | QB Baker Mayfield the Rashid rice train while I can uh moving on over to quarterback I have quarterback for us for this week I have Baker Mayfield uh who is currently ranked as quarterback 18 uh Washington defense flat out bad last year they traded probably two of their best players I don't think they really replaced them with too much talent um so I think they're going to be really really bad again and again little early to play matchups but last year they did allow the second most point to opposing quarterbacks Baker gets Godwin back in the slot in a role that he is you know historically succeeded at it's not like Godwin was bad last year he was a great football player just not necessarily great for us in terms of fantasy production but he gets Godwin back in the slot another year familiarity with not just Godwin but with uh Mike Evans and Rashad white who all project to be you know those three are who I project the top three you know receiving leaders to be in this offense I think Washington's offense has improved and I think they have more Talent at the offensive positions than they did last year um but that being said if Washington's offense can just keep them in this game keep this from going you know too crazy too early it would be absolutely zero surprise for me to see Baker finish inside the top 12 just no surprise whatsoever there and one top eight guy that I think he will outscore this week is Joe barl Joe barl especially if we don't know if Chase is playing yet yeah yeah if Chase does play and his wide receiver room goes from Jamar Chase T Higgins to T Higgins and Andre Yoshis Germaine Burton like none of those guys scare an offense at the at the two like T Higgins does so it wouldn't it wouldn't surprise me to see burrow put up a you know a little bit of a stinker week one yeah I honestly think that this is one of the sneakier games to go over not saying it's going to happen but if if Daniels is at all what he's been vered I think we could have a nice little shootout in our hands and the fact that Washington's defense which when they shipped away so many players last year um they became somewhat of a Civ if they continue to be easy pickings for for opposing quarterbacks I think Baker's one that could definitely find a lot underneath and just continue to move the ball up and down the field 100 per. all right let's wrap this segment up with your tight end of the week yeah I Weekly Lineup Decisions | TE Pat Freiermuth got fouth tight end ECR tight end 15 um I just want to provide you a couple interesting pieces of information 2022 number of games in which he had four targets or less three 2023 number of games in which he had four targets or more three I think fouth is in is in line for a huge bounceback I don't think there's a lot of competition when it comes to the the wide receiver room for for targets I understand that the running backs could be in competition but I do believe that he fits what Russ likes to do and I think Russ is going to find him for a a good amount of Targets in this game and I think I can't I'm not going to project a touchdown I think that's really difficult but I do think that he gets seven plus Targets in this game and when he if he does that I think he runs into that um that uh top eight scenario also uh the player I think he is going to outscore I'm going to go with his counterpart in this game and I'm gonna go with Kyle pittz I think that we are there's a lot of uh questions you know surrounding this Atlanta offense especially surrounding Kyle pittz I'm hoping that he's healthy because last year we saw a lack of burst and even saw some of that in the preseason or in the offseason I should say so I think that it's possible that that fmuth um outd his opposing tight end this week this one I'm going to disagree with I actually have zero interests in basically anybody in Pittsburgh's offense and I think Kyle Pitts is gonna blow up this year but hey we can't agree on all of them where would the fun in that be uh moving on to our last segment of the week we have our waiver wire Heroes so for this one we looked at redraft uh roster ship on sleeper we're each going to give you one player that is between 20 and 50% roster ship that we think will finish in the top 60 as a flex player so half PPR running back wide receiver top 60 there or potentially finish as a top 12 quarterback or tight end I'm going to give us our first player here so based off of this I got a little cheeky I went right at the 50% roster ship cut off here uh but it's Weekly DEEP Sleepers | WR Gabriel Davis Gabe Davis ecr's wide receiver 55 on the week he's historically played a boom bus role he's still probably playing a boom bust role in this offense but I think his upside is pretty high with Lawrence given the wide receivers that they've brought in I think it's clear that they're just going to use him um especially you know in roles that he succeeds at they have wide receivers and pass catchers in this offense that can do a lot of different things he won't ask be asked to do a lot of things that he isn't good at and I think if if you're projecting him to play Calvin Ridley's role from 2023 I actually think Gabe Davis is a little bit better in that role than Calvin Ridley is not saying Davis is a better wide receiver than Ridley but just in the role if that's if it stays the same role in the offense I think Davis actually has a lot of upside not just weekly but in in this entire season in that role with Lawrence at quarterback I think it'll be fun if you can get keep his feet in bounds something Ridley was not very good at last year yeah well that's what happens when you spend a year on the sideline gambling it's just where he's used to being um anyways moving on to Tim's 20 to 50% rostered player of the week yeah I went with Brandon Cooks he's like 41% Weekly DEEP Sleepers | WR Brandin Cooks ECR wide receiver 56 I'm not 100% sure if he's playing yet I know that in the last week he had some nagging injury U pieces so but if he does play I think that he is a reliable number two I understand that Ferguson was second in targets uh on this team last year but I think that cooks is a guy that could work your work his way into a flex spot in your lineup pretty easily um if Dallas's defense isn't up to Snuff or Cleveland's defense isn't up to Snuff either one of them we could see here a nice little shootout in this game and it could be that cooks is a beneficiary of a long drive or two in terms of receptions and yardage I like it I love Brandon Cooks fun guy to root for so here we go all right moving moving on to our sub excuse me 20% rostered choice of the week I Weekly DEEP Sleepers | QB Bryce Young have Bryce young who is ECR quarterback 29 Dave Canalis has fixed two quarterbacks two years in a row why not take the shot for number three I mean come on that'd be so fun he helped fix Gino helped fix Baker what if he can fix Bryce young which I mean for Bryce young to be as bad as he was last year either just means he's terrible or that was the worst offense we've ever seen and and I lean much towards the latter than the former um but he gets Deonte one of the greatest separators in the NFL one of the best route runners in the NFL something that team severely lacked last year I think jaavi and Sanders gives them a lot of Versatility for their tight ends whereas most of what he had last year was just a bunch of blockers who really aren't historically known for catching passes but I think this offense has a lot of upside and I think this matchup you know could be one that they can exploit and be productive will that happen we'll see but it's a sub 20% roster player if you're really stressing for a quarterback and you're looking at the sub 20% rostered guys you could do worse than Bryce I'm really surprised that you like Pitts and don't like Tommy tremble I love Tommy tremble as a Notre Dame guy I love Tommy tremble I'm so happy you got the reference I'm so happy but I can't do it all right my the my guy to Weekly DEEP Sleepers | WR Darnell Mooney close out the show this week I'm going to go with darn Mooney I think that once again we don't know exactly how all all of those Targets in that room and the tight end room and all that stuff is going to shake out in week one and I think that we know or we at least feel both of us feel that Mooney is a better receiver than than is perceived he's only 31% rostered he's ECR wide receiver 60 this week and I wouldn't be surprised if a lot more attention goes to the opposing wide receivers on the other side of the field and Mooney's left with 101 and Kirk Kirk is able to find him deep maybe once or twice in more of an Addison role that we saw Addison have 10 touchdowns in last year so I think that there is something there um I don't know for certain I think that you should be playing the guys that you drafted but if you're if you're needing a um you know just kind of a Hail Mary I think he's a good move I like it I love Darnell Mooney once he figured out how to use his hands to catch the ball and not just knock it down he started doing really really well and I think we see some of that bounce back this year but that has Outro | Like & Subscribe | Join Discord & Patreon (Links Below) been our weekly sleepers guys we will be doing this every single week of the season so make sure you come back and check it out great way to do that is make sure you are subscribed and you like the videos that way we stay popping up in your algorithm but thank you all for tuning in you can find me on Twitter at Perry FF you can find Tim on Twitter at Nubs with two NS and two B's find all things jwb jwb FF scroll on down to the description there you'll find links to our Discord our patreon make sure you check out our Clips Channel as well where we have all of the clips that we compile throughout the offseason of our takes player opinions random buffoonery it's all there you should check it out but we will see you all in next week's episode