Trump GETS VERY BAD DATA on Election After LOSING DEBATE

let's get into the latest and best data following the debate where vice president kamla Harris defeated Donald Trump let's call in Simon Rosenberg who leads the hopium Chronicles and Tom boner senior advisor at targetsmart you will all recall mest Mighty we had Simon and Tom on the midest touch Network back in 2022 when all of the corporate media was pushing the Red Wave narrative I would say one of the most pivotal points of the growth of the mightest touch Network I think is when we brought Simon and Tom onto this network and they were pushing back and there was this tug OFW if you will with the corporate media and others saying that we had no clue what we were talking about we were being trashed until we were proven that actually when you look at the data when you look at the statistics and you don't just buy into narratives blindly that actually matters so let's dig into it right now this is going to be a recurring series here on the mightest touch Network welcome Simon welcome Tom so Simon post debate your immediate Reactions where are we right now what's the data suggesting then Tom we'll go to you yeah listen we had a phenomenal week and we are being led by an incredibly capable candidate in a really strong campaign I mean this has been a remarkable series of events that I think would have been rejected as a West Wing episode if they had tried to or a season of westwing if they had tried to script it um but we're coming out very strong and let me just go right into the data of where we are I think and then Tom we can we can turn it to you on the voter red stuff is that you know prior to the debate what was unusual about the data the polling data was that everything was sort of pointing in the same direction there were very few outliers usually data is kind of scattered all over the place it was in 2022 when we were coming on here but the data has been remarkably consistent in recent weeks Harris has a two to threo National lead the Congressional generic which measures how people are going to vote for congress we have a two to three point National lead the states we are in better shape than they are we're closer to 270 we're not where we want to be but we're in better shape than Trump is in the seven Battleground states in the Senate polling which is going to be very important particularly in the Battleground Senate districts we're doing very very well the tester race in Montana I think is a tossup some people think we're behind there I don't agree from conversations I've had with people and you know the Republicans have bad candidate problems again in the Senate battle rounds and in the North Carolina governor's race that I think is going to become much more important as we get closer to the election and most importantly is that we also if let's just say that we're up a little bit we've got a slight Advantage we have a huge advantage in money volunteers and enthusiasm and this is going to I think make it possible for us to close strong close stronger than them and I think KLA Harris's strong hand this week got stronger with her great debate performance and Donald Trump exposing himself reminding all of us about what an ugly and extreme and unfit and unwell uh candidate he really is I think she did herself a lot of good he did himself a lot of harm so where I stand today Ben is that I would much rather be us than them and I'm very optimistic that we're going to have the election we all want to have if we go to work and do the work Tom Bond you're want to turn it over to you your reaction post debate also you've been doing a lot of studies into enthusiasm and specifically as it relates post debate as well you've been focusing on the Tailor Swift effect but let's just give your overall reaction if you will yeah I I I mean if we can connect some Dots here and you mentioned going back to 2022 and and the sort of work we did here on this network and and pushing back on this red wve narrative that was based on this notion that sure polling is important but it has to be viewed in the context of what else is happening and what we were seeing at the time especially first in the voter registration data then in election results and then an early vote data was it didn't look like a Red Wave election and I don't mean that from some sort of vague sense of how something feels or The Vibes as people like to talk about meaning hardcore data analysis where this isn't the first election we've seen and so we know what voter registration looks like in a red wave election we know what early vote looks like and that wasn't it it's why we had the confidence to really put that message out there and why in the end everyone on on on this program was correct and so you know the question of what we're seeing now first you know if we can talking about this this period even prior to the debate at the beginning of the Harris candidacy where we know sure Democrats did have some signs in the date of lagging intensity and enthusiasm uh prior to that moment I think we believe the campaign would be able to rectify but certainly was something that really existed so what we did is we looked at the voter registration data right after that candidate changed and we saw what we've been beginning to call the Harris effect uh it's really sort of an add-on to what we call the Dos effect in 2022 it's the same Phenomenon with a lot of the same people where you're seeing these big increases in voter registration among young voters women and voters of color and when you combine those three when you look at young women of color you're seeing increases in registration that are truly unbelievable in some cases triple the rate of registration that we saw four years earlier during the same period but talking about the debate you know as Simon said sure the polls have been remarkably consistent they show a close race but a consistent Advantage for vice president harth the big question that we don't see that we can't learn from the polls is who's going to vote know a little bit about how they're going to vote that's where we look at this intensity data voter registration and seeing the registration numbers and this is early you talk about the Swift effect but we know it's so sort of one one two punch where we saw uh a great debate performance followed up by Taylor Swift telling her followers her hundreds of millions of followers on Instagram to go out and register to vote well our team has hard data where we can actually look and see people who are coming to our file the people who are registering voters hitting against our file to see what's happening and what we saw was a more than quadrupling of these voter registration checks coming to us these spikes uh in in registration attempts that started immediately following the debate in uh Taylor Swift's Instagram post that have now actually continued days later we saw Taylor Swift uh at the VMAs telling people to register vote and we saw a spike from that so this intensity enthusiasm is really unprecedented at this point it's even bigger than what we saw after the dob decision in 2022 and is uh yeah incredibly remarkable I mean it was remarkable bigger than what we're seeing with the intensity if it's bigger than dos that could be a tsunami but there was a tsunami of really bad polling in 2022 to kind of game the system one of the reflections Simon on the red wave that you and Tom were at the Forefront calling out as frankly corporate media was taking shots at both of you as you were saying there's a lot of very bad polling data out there that looks intentional it looks malicious and you were often called oh he's going down a conspiracy rabbit hole but you were shown that that's correct are we starting to see that again what should our viewers be looking for there yeah just an exclamation point on something Tom said and then I'll I'll get to that is that you know we looked at these measures of intensity in 2022 the performance of Democrats in special elections the amount of fundraising that you know the huge fundraising advantages we had and then the voter read and then the early vote and when you use those same measures in this election I mean as Tom was saying we're seeing you know because at all pointed towards the Democrats having heightened intensity and Republicans not and this is why we were kind of confident that we were going to do better than people expected we're seeing that exact same thing happen this time right we're seeing continued strong performances in all these offe and special elections we're seeing the heightened performance and you know out dramatically out raising the Republicans and hard dollars all across the country and um you know we're now seeing it in the voter R data and this is a big change and as Tom mentioned we also are starting to see polling of enthusiasm which we're a little skeptical of but Gallup has data going back many decades about enthusiasm and the way they measure it and in their last poll we had an enthusiasm gap of 14 points over the Republicans and the last time we were this High close to 80% in their measure was the Obama 08 election far higher levels of measured intensity than we had for example in the recent presidential elections or even in the 2022 midterms so there is a lot of confirming data now that those same indications of indicators of intensity that Tom talked about are also pointing again towards us and we're going to learn a lot in the early vote which begins in just a week the early iners voting across the country begins in just a week and so we're going to start getting data about how people are voting in this election soon Tom should talk about the website he's going to build to help us understand all that um but on the polling I do think that what happened in 2022 is that in the Battleground States uh in the Senate races the Republicans flooded The Zone with these polls there were usually two three four points more Republican than the independent polls that were being done the Independent Media polls that were being done and they ended up having the effect of pull pushing the polling averages to the right more Republican and so real clear politics for example which has a very simple way of producing averages their final map of the race had Republicans winning 54 Senate seats based on the polling averages that had been gained by Republican polling operations and the Republicans only won 49 seats so we know that in in 2022 there was an effort to create the impression of the Red Wave it actually was successful because it moved the polling averages into places where it looked like like Republicans were going to win and it was done through them hiring and paying a bunch of Republican polling outfits to do this and they did it in the States because there are fewer polls in the states so it's easier to push the average it's much harder to do it in the National vote where there are so many polls and some of those same polling outfits that have been doing no public polling for the last two years have returned in recent weeks doing Battleground in particularly in the last few days um doing Battleground State polls Wick Insider Advantage uh Trafalga um Patriot polling uh there was a fifth that I'm just spacing out on that I'll think of in a second who've started producing polls in the Battleground States and they're going to focus heavily on Pennsylvania Michigan Wisconsin in all likelihood um showing the their number is two three four points more Republican than all the other polling so it's literally the exact same thing we cannot be Bamboozled by this again the whole National media kind of bought into this National you know this effort to gain the polling average and the reason it matters let me just say quickly the reason it matters is a couple things one is it demobilized when we think we're losing we demobilize our voters disengage money dries up right the same is true for them if they think they're losing so one is they want to give Donald Trump and Republican voters a belief the election is better than it really is the second thing though that's important is that it is vital to Donald Trump's effort if he tries to to cheat and overturn the election results he needs to have data showing that somehow he was winning the election and so there's also a deeply pernicious I mean not in addition to the you know just the perniciousness of gaming polling and and misleading people because these Republican polling outfits we don't produce this kind of polling because we use all of our money to win elections they have somehow decided to spend millions and millions of dollars on these polls and the question is why would you do it if it's anything other than helping them win elections they're not trying to inform the electorate they're trying to win the election by Gaming the polling averages and I think this time what we have to be worried about and the reason we have to call this out is that Donald Trump needs to go into election day with some set of data showing him winning so if he loses he can say we cheated and so there's a sign there's a lot of significance into what's going on here and something Ben that we'll be coming back um you know and talking about in the coming weeks but we have to be wise and learn from what happened last time and call you know on what's going on here with these fake Republican polls so Tom we've been talking about the redwave narrative from 2022 that was false that you and Simon debunked I want to maybe talk about something that happened relatively sooner back in February of 2024 when we were seeing a lot of these primaries and Donald Trump underperforming the averages one of the posts that you made back back on February 27 2024 was are we going to add yet another state to the quote Trump underperforms the polls pile so far the New York Times needle is predicting Trump Plus 43 the latest 538 poll average was Trump plus 57 and then you answered it the next day the answer is yes Trump's 42o margin in Michigan fell 15 points short of the final 538 pole average he continues to underperform 15 points sounds statistically significant of a number to me and I know a lot of our viewers out there are hearing 538 this 538 and what was so odd about this to me Tom is that after Trump underperformed by 15 points to 538 in a key State like Michigan I remember all the Press was camped out in certain areas of Michigan to try to show that that was going to be the data for Biden and that never happened but then when they were wrong by 15 it was like whatev move on to the next one and we saw that in state after State you were covering that so what do you what conclusions can we read from that what do you make of that what do you think about that just being ignored just if you can talk about that yeah I'm I'm glad you brought this up because this is an incredibly important point for people to understand that I think has significant bearing on our understanding of the election over the closing several weeks here again going back to 2022 for a second if we remember you know in the aftermath the the general quote smart take was well the polls weren't so bad uh as long as you didn't pay attention to those Red Wave polls that Simon mentioned that everyone was telling us you had to pay attention to at the time and quote trust the averages but they said what the problem was was a level of analysis meaning we had a couple of Elections prior to that 2016 and 2020 where the polls did overestimate Democratic support so there is this sort of political chattering class uh notion that polls just were broken and they underestimated Republicans and in the end what we know that happened in 2022 is polls overestimated Republican support and as Simon has pointed out many times thankfully uh and we need to continue to point out is since the Dos decision we have this continued track record of Republicans underperforming underperforming previous benchmarks and underperforming polling and so you brought this up in the primary to me this is the best example Donald Trump who you know people will tell you still today sure vice president Harris is leading in the poll averages and enough states to get her well above 270 electoral votes but in the end Donald Trump uh overperforms polling because that's what happened in 2016 and 2020 it's a fallacy and again the most recent example we have is universally throughout these primaries where Donald Trump badly underperformed the polls and so you know at this point can we say with certainty one way or another we can't but we have to keep in mind the most recent track record and this is not just these primaries again this is special elections this is uh the 2022 mid terms this is the the elections in Virginia in 2023 consistently Republicans are underperforming all of the data that we have at this point suggests that they will underperform again it's backed up by this registration data we will be very curious to look at the early vote data as that becomes available Simon and I of course will be digging into that as we have in Prior cycles and in the end that'll likely be our best indicator and we will be covering that every step of the way here we're going to have you both back on Final statements from each of you let me go back to Simon your closing remarks on this video but again just reminding everybody we will be back weekly and as we get closer probably daily digging into s well I think we'll if we're coming back daily we'll all go crazy I think but the um yeah listen I think the last thing that Tom said is really important it's it's foundational to our understanding of this election that everything changed in Spring of 2022 when dos happened it was a before and after moment and it means that what happened in 2016 and 2020 is not as important potentially as what happened in 2022 that you know we've always believed that this election would look more like 2022 than it did 2016 and 2020 because Trump is different than he was in 2016 and 2020 he's you know January 6th happened he tried to overturn American democracy and and you know um and return election end American democracy for all time he stripped the rights and freedoms away of more than half the population he himself as we saw this week is far more degraded and diminished and impulsive and wild and mad than he was in 2016 and 20120 and he's now also a rapist a felon a traitor and a fraudster and so the version of trump that we're seeing this time is far worse and extreme and ugly than the Trump the version of trump we've been seeing before and if the country had rejected that Politics the Maga you know of 2018 2020 2022 why would they Embrace a politics that's uglier and more extreme this time it it always sort of defied logic in some ways about and and understanding because in our analysis what we talked a lot about in 2022 Ben was that you needed to stay close to the data about this election not what happened in other elections previous elections no election is like any other election this election is going to be like 2024 it's not going to be like 2016 and 2020 and and the and what we're going through with you today is the data about what's happening in this election when Tom talked about Trump underperforming public polling in this election with voters this year that to me should be at least as important if not more important than what happened to you know in 2016 and 2020 but this is the kind of stuff that isn't left it's left out of the dialogue and it's why it's important that we're being given the opportunity to talk to the might as mighty um about uh you know this because all of you have become such an important part of our family this has really s become such an important institution in the pro-democracy movement and we want to make sure we're giving you the best data that we possibly can so that you are informed and can share this with others at this critical time for our country so it's great to be back with you Ben and by the way good luck I know you're about to be dad and uh that's pretty exciting why do you think I was saying I'm going to have you on here daily I'm going to start having you on hourly while I'm taking I was made you didn't realize it but that was that was the true art of the deal I was I was booking you without you even knowing it Tom your final conclusion yeah well again I want to Echo what Simon said I'm so thankful for everything you and the might is mighty uh networker doing here um you know in terms of that data I do actually want to share uh with with everyone here some some breaking news that we have not shared publicly yet but in terms of this voter registration data data we're big Believers that uh more information that empowers the electorate is better right especially with all the misinformation out there in the mainstream media and so we will be releasing a public dashboard that anyone can go to if you go to targets smart.com it'll be up before the end of the week uh and you can actually run your own voter registration analysis it's all on there it's very easy to use shout out to our team at Target smart for the work they have done and then uh later this month we will be releasing the target early dashboard that will bring in early vote data so we're excited to share that with the network here uh and excited to come back thank you this network will continue to grow because we just want the truth the whole truth and nothing but it give us the data that's my Jerry Maguire appeal show me the data everybody hit subscribe we're on our way to 4 million subscribers let's get there before election thanks everybody for watching and have a good one real quick metag just changed their algorithm to suppress political content please follow our Instagram @ mest touch right now as we head towards 400,000 followers so you don't miss a Beat [Music]