Tropical Weather Update: Gulf's potential tropical storm Francine on the horizon

All right. A good Sunday evening to you. I'm Fox 26 meteorologist John Dawson with the special Tropical update special, because we've got a system very close to forming in the Gulf of Mexico, and we're only going to have about three days before this is going to make a landfall. So really crucial that we're keeping a track on this over the next couple of days and that you are also taking our nice weather that we have for Monday, especially to get prepared because while right now Houston is not in the bull's eye, it is. It is way too close for comfort. And we've seen in the past even this year, that those forecast tracks can change within a 48 hour period. And it we're again close enough. So let's kind of dive into things and sort of look at what we're looking at here right now. Again, the update from the hurricane center is that we do not technically have a tropical cyclone. So it's not a depression, not a storm. It's the potential tropical cyclone. There's no closed area of circulation at the surface. We've got the winds that are there. We've got the stormy weather that's there, but it's sort of an elongated is the way they describe it. It's not quite compact. And again, close enough to make that circulation. But expectations are within the next 24 hours. It will do that. It will become Tropical Storm Francine. And Francine will most likely it strengthened into a hurricane as it begins to approach the Texas coastline right where we've got the state line with Louisiana. So right now it's looking like this is a Texas landfall or a Louisiana landfall. And as I mentioned, we are the city of Houston, just right on the edge of that cone. So right now, I really do want us to focus on this entire yellow cone as the possibilities of that landfall. So this could be very close to the Houston area right now. If the track were to stick exactly like it is now. And we know that can change, it will fall apart quite quickly once it makes its landfall. But still bringing a lot of rain even by the time it gets to Thursday and Friday for this part of the country. And we're going to see some of these rain expectations in a minute. That's one thing that we're very confident in is the rainfall is going to be a lot. So again, here's where we've got what's going to be. Francine. Remember all that moisture and that Gulf sort of instability that was around all last week. Well that sort of parked out here over the Gulf. And so that potential tropical cyclone is going to kind of join up with all this and kind of give it some more energy. So give it some more rain for the city of Houston. We want to focus on Wednesday. That's our Fox 26 storm alert day. Again, the rain chances are going to be very high. We need to make sure that we're prepared for that for sure. And then depending on the intensity and the track, which we're again keeping close tabs on, and we're going to get our plans ready. Now that's where we're going to continue to see where some of those other threats are going to take place. Remember if you're watching on Fox Local right now, fantastic. Glad you're here. If you're not, get Fox Local for your smart TV. You're going to get all the tropical discussions like this. You're going to get Monday's with Mike. You're also going to have access to all of my hurricane gear tests, helping keep you prepared. So here's that forecast cone again. And we're expecting a strong tropical storm by Tuesday evening. And then we get into Wednesday evening. And we're potentially looking at a landfall as a category one hurricane right now over into Louisiana. But as I mentioned, think about that at this point, we're focused on the whole cone because this can change a little bit over time. And then we've discussed how this is going to continue to head on up. Right now. We're going to keep an eye on our watches. We've just got watches down for Mexico just a little bit of an area here as well where we could have some tropical storm force winds and all of our computer modeling is staying pretty tight, that this is going to be going towards that. Texas coast or Louisiana coast. Now, if it's a little closer to land, it will probably weaken the storm a little bit more. There's drier air that can kind of mix in there with a little bit more, but if it stays out a little further in the Gulf of Mexico, look for it to intensify even more. Some very warm waters. It doesn't have to worry about the land interaction, and less dry air could kind of get swept into that system. These warm waters, again, t formation, for intense, rapid intensification could be taking place. I talked about the rain threat. Here's for sure what we're looking at on Tuesday from the weather Prediction Center. The bigger threat moves over to Louisiana if it stays on its current course and then all the way up into Tennessee, we're looking at some potentials for flash flooding. Once we get into Thursday and even into Friday. This is the GFS model or the American model. Watch how this track stays headed towards Mexico and the south portions of Texas. There's a large area of high pressure over in this side of the Gulf of Mexico, and that's going to then grab Ahold of it and help pull it across more towards Louisiana. But again, it might stay a little closer to the coast, keeping it maybe not quite as strong. If it stays out into the Gulf, it becomes even stronger. And we track this with all of its rain and everything that it's bringing up into Louisiana and Arkansas. Here's what we're expecting on some of that rainfall. The heaviest, up to 10 to 12in of possibility right now. Everything again, the worst of it all is focused a little bit over to the east of Houston and into what we're looking for as far as the expectations, Francine is the next name on the list, assuming that it's the next one. Quick look at