Capping the Card - Saratoga Saturday: Travers Day with David Aragona

[Music] hi everyone Matthew to Santa here with nirra bets here with an episode of capping the card where myself and a special guest are going to go through all 14 races on Saturday's Travers Day card at Saratoga but before we get to that make sure to press that like button here on naets And subscribe to the naets YouTube channel where you can get race previews full card analyses racing live streams handicapping and betting tutorials and so much more we have individual Spotlight videos for each of the eight contenders in this year's Travers stakes and I also was joined by AAA clont as we previewed both personal ensen running on Friday and the Sword Dancer running on Saturday well capping the card is always a really fun video because it gives people an opportunity to see top picks and Top Value plays for myself and a guest and joining me this week is a good friend of mine who you know his work because he is the morning line maker here up in New York and you also know him from Daily Racing for and that is David aragona David thank you so much for joining me today yeah happy to join you and I think we picked a pretty good card to cap because uh this 14 race marathon on Saturday it really has a little something for everybody from fans of the sport seeing the stars in action to the people that want to bet these races there's a lot to sink your teeth into absolutely no I I couldn't agree more the undercard has a lot of really compelling races as well and listen I know myself I tend to blow viate and I said I need somebody cons prcise I need somebody efficient with their language that's why I have you on to try to keep me so that this doesn't become a three-hour podcast about a 14 race card so uh let's dive into the very first race and David I'm gonna have you go first because I don't like myself for my top pick uh and we'll get into why that is but this is a $90,000 main special weight for three-year-old upup uh New York Breads and uh uh I'm sorry no it's not it's a oh no it is yeah uh and seven furlongs on the dirt and David why don't you talk about your top pick calling an audible at 5 to one well I'm intrigued to hear why you're giving another shot to geopolitics but I I'll quickly run through uh my opinion on this race I mean I I for me I feel like if there's a reason to play this race it's to play against geopolitics because she has just burned money in five straight starts I mean they've all been carbon copies of each other whether it's the dirt or the turf um so I feel like you're supposed to find some alternative um I struggled a little bit to really find a horse that I loved in this race I ended up on the number one calling an audible who has had more chances than some others that you might perceive as having a little more upside but I think you want to keep in mind that a lot of her speed Figures were earned when she was a younger horse very early in her three-year-old season just so just with some routine Improvement I think she could get on par with some of these other ones and I also believe the Seven fur long distance is really ideal for her she tried the mile a number of times over the winter and was often just flat flattening out to the end of those races I think this is the right distance to come back at uh trainer Ed Barker has good numbers off this kind of layoff and I think it's meaningful that irat Ortiz has taken the mount and my value play which is the same as yours would be Paula star sister um one of those horses that I think does have some upside coming out of the debut I think the stretch out's going to help her a little bit and I think she was just mildly against what could have been a slight rail bias last time yeah I agree with you about the way to approach this race in general and geop politics you're right has been burning money and it's same song second verse but as you mentioned there's not a lot of other intriguing Alternatives in this race and I will say the one reason I went back to this well one last time I swear is the blinkers and I just go maybe this is what this horse needs a little bit of an equipment change uh and maybe that's what allows this horse to get the job done at the end rather than fading finishing second just kind of finding a way to lose to other horses and to be clear I've bet against this horse the last three times out and have been making money off betting against this horse but I just could not get to another horse in this race uh with the addition of the blinkers and it's it's one of those things sometimes you say stuff after a race I remember saying after her last race if she adds blinkers I'm probably gonna bet her next time and well here we are and so uh but yeah I agree with everything you said regarding the value play regarding Paula's star sister eight to one on the morning line for Anthony Ferrero and like you this one has an opportunity to move forward only one start and I think it was an educational start at that back and uh just tired a little bit late but lost to a runaway uh winner that day who won by six and a half lengths so I think margin of Victory is something you should take into account in this regard but the horse showed a little bit of nice early speed and uh I think this one has an opportunity to take a step forward at 8 to one let's move to race number two on the card which is an $80,000 optional claimer for three-year-olds and this one is going a mile and a 16th on the melon Turf course which is the outer turf of course and we ended up on the same top pick here and I'll be interested to hear your rationale for this and maybe why you're going against some other horses in here but for me when you ever you can get eight to one on a Chad Brown horse with flavan pada board that seems like a pretty good deal this one has some nice early speed and is cutting back a little bit from running in these Turf marathons if you will going a mile and 38 now going back to a mile on the 16th uh broke its Maiden two back and then I thought ran pretty well against the laow n1x company last time out so uh Pratt sees fit to stay aboard this is a horse like I said it tired a little bit late but going longer I think the cutback uh will be beneficial here and I just think the value is here at 8 to one but interested in your thoughts on vesting in this race yeah I'm going to be interested to see how this race gets bet um maybe I was a little generous on that line on investing in retrospect kind of reh handicapping the race again but I think it really hinges on how much money the number five green light takes um I've got him at two to one on the line and I think when you first glance at his PPS he looks really appealing he's faced better horses he's got some speed figures that just stand out in this field when I watch some of those replays I don't know if I'm as impressed as I was just looking at the form on paper he hasn't doesn't necessarily finish off his race as well as I'd like to see in some of those recent starts he can be a little bit onepac so I wanted to find some alternative I'm very intrigued by the number nine Domo momentum who's getting on Turf for the first time there's a ton of turf pedigree here he moves like a Turf horse he's just going to get bit off dirt races so I have trouble taking a horse like that at any kind of short price trying a new Surface for the first time so I kind of land on vesting I think they tried the Marathon distance because it was the race that came up to back I don't know if he's a horse that I necessarily see as a true marathoner and he was getting kind of legy at the end of even that Maiden Victory two back and last am out I think the evidence came in he just doesn't want to go that far I like the turn back when I go back to watch his debut race at aqueduct in May um I think that's a better effort than it looks um he was a little steadied back into the clubhouse turn got an uncomfortable trip after that had to alter course in the stretch but was finishing well and I think he's a little better than he seems on paper five six to one maybe is what I would expect to get on him and I think that's a fair price um and I'll jump right to my value play of the number seven Tere um he might go in the other direction in terms of price I could see him drifting up a little bit um he's just a horse who has had trip after trip in his races uh had traffic trouble three back at Churchill was just totally blocked in traffic of the stretch of that June 7th race at Sarah a toga two back and last time things worked out a little better I actually thought Tyler Gap Leone gave him a really good ride breaking from post n that day but once again he had a little trouble finding a clear path in the stretch was still finishing well once he finally found that seam blade I just think he's a horse that's a little better than he looks on paper and he might be one that slips through the cracks a little bit in this race yeah I agree with you about the number seven horse here slipping through the cracks Brendan Walsh and Tyler gleon are usually a Duo that I like taking a second look at even if maybe it doesn't always look great on paper I tend to trust that duo quite a bit especially on the turf and like taking a second look there so definitely appreciate that perspective my value play is the number one Crystal quest for Michael tretta also at 8 to1 on the morning line and this one's coming out of some pretty good races almost one a Stakes race two back at Colonial over soft ground now one of the things that I am concerned about or just maybe interested in seeing is the horses run kind of in every other pattern uh where you know maybe had some issues in a couple of those races but has kind of started to turn into a little bit of an every other race horse the last couple of times out but that's also coincided with running over softer ground so I do wonder if this horse may just prefer a little bit more given the ground and considering while we've had a lot of rain this summer we are not having any rain this week it's probably going to be a pretty firm Turf course come Saturday afternoon so just something to keep in mind there uh but I agree with you also about I want to go back to the point you made about Greenlight and one of the things that I've been looking at and I think a lot of people have been looking at is how all these Church Hill Downs and Kentucky horses are doing coming up to New York and we've seen a lot of success but I think it's important to point out most all of that has been on the dirt that we've not necessarily seen a lot of the turf horses coming up from Kentucky and necessarily dominating the same way we've seen on the dirt so just an interesting distinction to make obviously Rudy Bret's got a couple of really good horses that we'll talk about throughout the card uh later today but uh it's going to be interesting to see that one now getting the blinkers on but I agree a two to one maybe a little too short of a price for my liking uh with a hsees I think still does have some legitimate questions to answer so moving on to race number three on the card this is a $35,000 optional claimer for three-year-old nuts going a mile in 38 on the inner Turf course and you know this was uh an interesting race these uh you know these Turf marathon races are usually not always my favorite to uh handicap but what was kind of interesting was we went with the same two horses just in a slightly different order so I went with addicted to you as my top pick and American Grant as my value play I'll talk a little bit about addicted to you and then turn things over to you if you want to talk about American Grant but uh at six to1 I first of all I'll just say anybody who watches this show knows I have a lot of respect for the racio depaz barn I think he tends to get his horses ready uh and he's been having a pretty successful meet overall we just saw him win a Turf Stakes race the other day with awesome check uh and you know he had a lot of second itis last year during saratoga's meet and this year it feels like he's starting to get some of those horses home a little bit more often but this horse has some good races to run back to particularly against uh this type of company and I just think you know you look back at that race forb back actually uh I thought was a really strong effort there despite having a little bit of trouble at the start and I think this one has some tactical speed at least to be able to sit you know within a few lengths of the pace and I think just that last effort with Ricardo s up you saw a little bit more of an aggressive ride and I just thought this one at 6 to1 provided a little bit of value but I'll turn things over to you to talk about the other one of our two horses that we like in this race yeah my picks don't always fit the format of your show because I do love to prices on top so I kind of did that here with the number seven American Grant though I I agree with a lot of your thoughts about addicted to you and um he was my second pick in this race when I did my ordinals for the Daily Racing Form and uh I think he's a horse that ran really well in his last race addicted to you um that was a pace that fell apart he was in close attendance to it was the only horse involved in the pace around at the end so I think you showed some stamina for the stretch out and the distance is the major question for a lot of these horses I think it's pretty interesting they CED one of these starter allowance races go the 11 furlongs because horses at this class level don't often get the opportunities to run over these Marathon distances and I think it's uh pretty cool to see some of these horses try something for the first time and I'm really excited to see a horse that has been a little bit of of a pet of mine the number seven American Grant get this opportunity because he's a horse that I've been chasing a little bit lately if you follow my naira analysis on n.com or what I write for the racing form um he's had a series of trips that have just really dirtied up his form I mean I'll go all the way four back in his uh past performances to April 28th he was stuck legitimately four to five wide around both turns that is not a successful trip on the turf um and then the same jockey repeated that trip and his next start on June 7th when he actually read pretty well to only get beaten five lengths with that trip his next race on June 30th just got way too far back in the early stages um lost contact with the field and I think moving down the backstretch his rider tried to sort of make up for that lost ground and uh try to engage him to show some speed at that point in the race and I like to look up some sectional times which you can do on ease now to see um you know how fast the gmax track these horses is running and American Grant threw in a 22.3 second quarter on the backstretch of that race not the time that you want to be shoveling that much of your speed because it leaves you nothing left for the stretch drive and then last time out um I think I was on talking horses with Andy that day and I made a case for this horse at a big price and he he finished seventh and he didn't get to show his true colors that day but the pace of that race just didn't work for him it was dominated on the front end by G in 10 who led every step of the way and this horse was actually finishing well across the wire he's this long striding son of commissioner who looks to me like a horse that just wants to gallop along all day now he's finally getting a chance to go the mile 38 distance he's getting a rider upgrade to Dylan Davis who I would want to have on every pick that I make at this meet because he's just um getting the best out of every single MCH so it seems and uh he's the kind of horse that is just going to be a big price in this race because he's finished off the board so many times in a row those are not the kind of horses that attract attention from the betters yeah absolutely you're absolutely right about Dylan I mean just every day it feels like I'm looking up at the TV and seeing him bringing home another $20 winner or you know 8 to1 horse 10 to1 horse he's been riding incredibly well and getting the most out of all of his mounts and one thing I'll also add just in general is one of the things I do for nirro bets as we look at track stats and look at the winning trip analysis for different surfaces and distances and one thing that's been interesting is that the inner Turf course has really been playing the closers this meet uh with over 54% of winners coming from more than three lengths back at the half mile Mark uh so so you can make up ground on this interner Turf course and I think that's just something to keep in mind and I've been kind of playing against a lot of frontend speed in a lot of these races and wanting to look for those horses that are kind of your more traditional trackers and closers and I agree with you about American Grant getting that jockey upgrade there and have an ability to maybe show a little bit more uh than what he's done to this point so uh should be a a fun race and I agree with you it's fun to see these horses do the milein 38 because it's going to be something a little bit new for them let's head to race number four on the card which is a $62,000 optional claimer for three-year-old n and we're going a mile out of the Wilson shoot whether you like it or not and this is on the dirt and we have a field of seven and listen the Wilson shoot I think does present some issues from a standpoint of how does this play how do different horses sometimes break out of there and the sort of trip and the post position and how all of this ends up playing out ultimately landed on the number six can't hush this for Mike maker who has had a very very strong meet I think this year uh considering just the number of horses he brings up and kind of the caliber of racing that he's competing against a lot of times this is a horse coming off consecutive runner-up finishes but is one of these dirt horses coming up from Kentucky and there's a little bit of that angle of well coming up from Churchill coming from up from Ellis Park uh maybe you know that caliber of competition they've been facing down there might help them in this spot and you pick up Iz Jr on the mount this horse has good early speed doesn't need the lead though and I feel like that's the sort of horse you want coming out of the Wilson shoot where you want to have at least some early speed I feel like if you get shuffled back early then you're kind of out of the race in a lot of ways and if you're too far outside it can be an issue as well but I like the horse that you also liked as your top pick banishing so I'll let you talk about that one yeah banishing I think checks a lot of the boxes that you were just describing there as a horse that can get some forward position coming out of that Wilson shoot something he wasn't able to do in his last couple of starts but one of those was a Turf race he's just not a Turf horse I don't care about that and then last time out um he was wide every step of the way wasn't able to quite get forward and didn't seem to be traveling that well to the quarter pole and Louis sa is not the kind of jockey to just wrap up on a horse and he sort of did that in the late stages of that race so it felt like maybe he just didn't feel like the horse was moving that well underneath him um he's been off for a little bit of time since then and obviously went through the auction ring and you could see the PPS he sold for $80,000 after that race which strikes me as a pretty large price tag for a horse coming off such a poor performance as a gelding so I mean it's not like there's you know that much upside with him uh but um when you go through the sale and sell for that much what that says to me is that they did a check of this horse and there's not some serious physical issue coming out of the last race and he's coming back without a layoff showing for David Jacobson and I was looking up some stats for David Jacobson who can be a tough trainer to read at times and a tough trainer to find positive stats for but when you sort of combine his first off the claim and first off a trainer switch stats which I think is um something you could do for Jacobs and more than other trainers because he buys all horses for himself basically um he's 17 for 62 over the past five years 27% with a $2.70 Roi and at naira that Roi shoots up to $343 um so I I just think banishing as a horse that if it gets back on track he his best performances are right there with everybody else in this race so um I thought he might get the right trip in here so I made him my top top pick and as for the value play this is the kind of race where it's hard to find a big price you know my top pick is six to one I can't really go higher than that unless I'm making a case for Duke of Gloucester and um Costo Tera I just wanted to highlight him because I think of the shorter to middling price horses he's the one that I rely on to be in the mix at the end he's just fairly consistent overall and I think his last race is better than it looks because August 2nd was one of those days where I felt like the rail was a bit of an advantage and he was two to three wide throughout was actually making up some ground in a race that was dominated on the front end so I think that was a performance that was a good one in keeping with his recent form so I would expect him to run well in here even if he doesn't win the race yeah he's a a very honest horse I mean 10 for 20 hitting the board and certainly since coming over to Linda Rice's Barn you know doing a lot of things uh right at this particular level at this optional claimer 62 so uh has really turned in nothing but good performances outside of the one time coming off the bench going a mile and a quarter so I think that EX that race can easily be excused uh and picks up you know Linda uses Jose Ortiz as her kind of top Rider here and it's interesting Linda's not had quite the same successful summer that she had last year but certainly has still managed to turn out a fair number of winners and really live Runners throughout the meet we just saw her have a very impressive Maiden score in the opener today uh on Thursday at Saratoga with a horse that was uh man wrapped up by the by the eighth pole almost uh that one was really impressive for her so uh let's move on to race number five though which let me just jump in for a sec I want to correct correct something I said that that Jacob St Jacob from stat I gave out that was specifically for dirt allowance races with horses that are not in for attack I should have mentioned that because I wanted to look up stats for he's making a switch EDD he's not risking the horse for a tag so just wanted to to put that clarification in for people that look that set up in formulator no that's a really that's good clarification because you're right Jacobson is in that kind of claiming circuit a lot so the fact that this horse is protected I think is a is a key uh point to make there and and you're right about the the sale $80,000 for a horse that's only won $101,000 to this point and is a gelding is that's a pretty strong purchase I would say uh or at least indicates that they have some positive thoughts about what this horse can do moving forward so that it's an interesting stat to share um race number five uh $62,000 optional claimer for threeyear olds and up going five and a half furlongs on the turf and uh this is on the melon Turf course and you went with a pretty big price up top you went with even bigger value play I thought I was going to have a good value play in this race and then you blew me out of the water with 30 to one so I can't even get you there but uh David talk a little bit about your number two horse charging who was definitely one that I took a long look at uh when considering this race I think there's a lot to like here yeah I'll admit I had trouble getting a strong feel for this race and in those scenarios sometimes I just end up going for prices because I find myself knocking the favorites and I mean there is an entry in here that I think it's going to take a lot of money and both halves can obviously win it's just I didn't feel so attracted to them at the price and I think entries generally can be poor value um charging is a horse that I've kind of been waiting to see get into the situation and this spot is a little tough for him because when you look at his form he can be inconsistent at times and he's a horse that's very trip dependent and he doesn't always show up with his best effort but I can go just two starts back in his PPS and find a race in the king leatherberry at Laurel that I think makes him pretty competitive in here and know he only got an 86 buyer but when you go back and watch that race I think he ran even better than that speed figure would indicate within the context of that race because it was a fast early Pace he was up close to that pace early actually had to be rained in a little bit um by Ben Curtis to not run too fast chasing those leaders made an early move to take over at the top of the stretch and then that was just a race that went to closers he got swallowed up at the end but he still battled on gam Le to only lose to horses like witty an outlaw kid by a neck and those two would be among the favorites in a race like this now the problem is that charging surrounding races aren't nearly as strong but he did not get the right kind of trip last time and the get serious he was breaking from the inside tried to rush up was just in a really precarious position every step of the way not really in that hole and having to Be steady back a little bit uh multiple times around the far turn he's been a vet scratch a couple of times since then now he's coming back for a tag there are some question marks but I think he's drawn well towards the inside with speed and I know his best effort does give him a chance in here so um he's the horse that I wanted to give a chance to uh hopefully getting back to one of his better efforts yeah know make makes a lot of sense and I I agree with you sometimes when I have a hard time with particularly it feels like Turf Sprints I end up just going for absolute prices in these spots and uh I went with a little bit of a modest price Running With Scissors uh as my top selection at six to1 for Fernando Abu this is a horse that's a veteran of 62 career starts um and hasn't really sprinted much has typically gone two turns on the turf but they did turn him back and Sprint him last time out and yes he got disqualified obviously uh moved back to eighth place based off that effort but if you just watch the race there horse clearly showed some ability going five and a half furlongs at this level and was able to make up some ground and was able to put in a really nice run I thought gets Joel Rosario aboard and you know for everything I might say about Joel Rosario in a Turf Sprint there a few jockeys I trust more uh than him and he actually won on this horse three races back so so I just like seeing that connection to the horse and the jockey having some success and with the trainer now this horse is also in for the tag now 625 so that is something to keep in mind uh but I just thought again a little bit of a price was interesting a horse that has uh you know speed to sit kind of mid pack and then make one run and we'll see kind of how that ends up playing out my value play in this one was a big price uh the number five ruse at 20 to1 and this is one who is really cutting back for pretty much for the first time and you know did try five and a half or five fur Longs back in 2022 at Gulfstream Park and finished second that day but this one has largely been going uh two turns and you know I don't know how much this horse has left in the tank maybe because this horse used to show a lot of early speed and just does not show that same speed anymore and so there is some concern there um but I just Dylan Davis is up on the mount as we talked about he's having a tremendous meat and I just thought this horse maybe trying something a little bit new was interesting to me at 20 to1 and at a big price I don't know I'd be willing to find out maybe this horse can find kind of a second wind at this five and a half fur long distance and I thought it was notable that the horse is not going in for the tag and is still being protected so uh there's still maybe some ambition with what this horse has yet to prove but you went to an even bigger price vacation dance at 30 to1 I love it when I see that big number up there so talk a little bit about that one yeah I mean this horse even in his past has races that maybe aren't quite good enough to win against a field like this so I'm feeling him a little bit more as a horse you might want to throw into trifectas or underneath an exotic Wagers um but you don't have to go that far back in his past performances to find some of his better form such as that race four starts ago on October 27th of last year when at this level he was a good third behind fluid situation and legends can't die horses that are pretty nice Turf sprinters and then I think you can make excuses for every start since then the turf Sprint championship just too tough for him then he switched into the Todd Pletcher barn and sometimes trainer switches just don't work out and also some horses just can't really go the fast Paces of those five furong Turf Sprints at Gulfstream which just seemed to be a little bit too quickly run for him they stretched him out to um a mile at Aqueduct last time and just got the wrong trip he was four wide around both turns it was an impossible Journey um over a course that was probably favoring inside paths a little more and now he's getting back to what he wants to do five and a half on the turf at Saratoga where he's a couple times before also back in the J Kimel bar who had him when he was last in good form just at the end of last year and um I think he's a horse that might be able to get back to one of his better races maybe it's not good enough to win but he's a horse who can get a piece of this at a price yeah I I think that's a great way to approach it when we talk about value plays there's a lot of different ways to approach it sometimes it's a long shot that we do think has a little bit of a chance to get the upset but other times it is a horse that and I would say ruse is much the same for me a horse to just throw in in your exact your trifectas maybe even something as deep as a Superfecta but uh you know we saw race today at Saratoga where I think there was a 45 to one horse that finished fourth and you know you know you get these big prices sometimes running up into the money for uh different Wagers so just something to keep in mind and I also like Kendrick Carmo being back a board Kendrick has ridden this horse before and tends to be able to get a little bit of speed out of this horse out of the gate and Kendrick's you know very good at doing that in general not always necessarily known as a Turf Sprint Rider but again if you're you're looking for a jockey who's going to get some speed out of a horse he's always one that's at the top of the list I think for me on this New York circuit so uh definitely like that one out of price let's move to uh I think a pretty interesting race which is a race number six on the card which is $100,000 made special weight for two-year-olds I always love the two-year-old races uh going a mile and a 16th on the inner Turf course we both landed on the same top selection which was in subordination um who is part of a coupled entry uh though the 1A is on the also eligible list and is third down on that list so uh may not probably well probably not going to get into this field All Things Considered but insubordination uh is a horse that I like for George Weaver's barn and Weaver had a very hot meat last year up at Saratoga has not gotten the wins necessarily this year but he's gotten horses to run relatively well little bit of what I said with hero depa last year a lot of second itis same thing is true a little bit with Weaver here this is a horse that debuted going a mile on the dirt but that was an off Turf race uh that was run over a sloppy seal track willing to kind of draw a line through that to some extent but I still think it's an important race to look at because horse still ran pretty well all things considered uh and has the opportunity to take a step forward the pedigree is All Turf on this one so you would imagine that there's going to be a perk up but I thought the horse showed at least some decent ability uh in that debut race to think that there's another opportunity to move a step forward you're going from Eric K sells the jockey to Javier castiano uh and now hitting the turf where this horse is meant to be so I thought six to1 was good value on this top pick yeah in subordination is a horse that I've had some interest in for basically this entire Saratoga meet this is actually the third time that he's entered he was entered once in early July at Saratoga and I think he reared up in the postp parade and ran off and had to be scratched so when he was entered in that off the turf race I think that was the second attempt and he's a horse that I think um I forget if it was Maggie or acia in The Paddock has had some issues mentally getting ready to actually race and I wonder if they just kept him in at off the turf race to give him that racetrack experience so it would better set him up to be a little more professional once he finally gets on the turf and I think it probably served that purpose I mean I don't want to make too much of that race he only beat a couple of Rivals there are only four horses in there but to run a 55 buyer on the dirt for a horse like you said who has nothing but Turf pedigree I think is a pretty good sign he showed some stamina to stay on at the end got one of those interesting European pedigrees where it's all speed on the top side but all like Marathon stamina influences on the bottom side so I think this is probably the right kind of distance for him and I found some good stats for George Weaver second time starters dirt to Turf he's six for 28 with a $4.40 Roi so um was enough for me to uh give insubordination a chance as he gets on the turf because I've watched some of this horses workouts and I think you might have a little bit of ability yeah absolutely and and I it's it's interesting I think maybe the first time this horse ran you had written up the closer look notes uh for that particular race and I remember you talking a lot about that pedigree and it made me do a deeper dive into the pedigree and you're right it's a really fun pedigree if you're into that sort of Deep dive analysis I encourage you to do a little bit of digging I ended up on Racing Post and all sorts of different websites looking up you know siblings and uh you know half siblings and all that sort of good stuff so uh I think a very interesting horse uh now let's talk a little bit about your value play here which is number eight Thunder Roll for Bill M and uh this one has been working out pretty strong leading up to that debut on August 10th and M is turning this one around pretty quickly which is not always a typical move but might indicate that he's a pretty live Runner yeah I mean I don't know exactly what to make of the quick turnaround uh this horse feels like one that probably needed that debut race a little bit when you start a first time starter going seven furlongs it's usually saying that the trainer thinks this is the horse that ultimately is going to want to go longer now he's stretching out to the two turns and the switch to the turf makes sense based on the Pedigree hard spun is one of the most versatile sers in the game with regard to surface and the dam was four for 15 on the turf you look at the second Dam she was Stakes placed on the turf so there's real grass pedigree here and I'm not going to be surprised when this one takes a step forward on the surface switch absolutely uh my value play in this one is the number five papy amento uh for Whit Beckman who is of course the trainer of Honor uh this one again had kind of an educational first timeout I thought just kind of got out there and you know was maybe a little one pace but made up a little bit of ground late I thought in that race at a really big price actually in debut at 31-1 uh and G gets the blinkers put on is intrigued to see that sort of you know blinker and Equipment change this is not necessarily a winning move for Beckman but it's still an interesting one considering the horses running lines you get this horse maybe out there on the front end a little bit uh more clo you know closer to the pace and I just think you're going to end up seeing this horse maybe being able to finish a Little Bit Stronger just be in a better position to be able to finish a Little Bit Stronger at 10 to one you pick Tyler gaffle own up on the mount as well and again Tyler always rides that Turf course well up here so I just thought a 10 to one kind of an interesting horse in that second start I think in general you know when I look at these two-year-old races we've set it for a couple of these horses those first races are just so instructional sometimes and they can just be things that you build on and so a lot of times I don't get too hung up on how many lengths they were beaten by or you know things like that I just want to see okay they got that experience they know what it's like loading into the gate they know what it's like dealing with the paddock they know what it's like just being around Saratoga with all the people and and things like that I mean those are things that can really throw a young horse off and for them to now be on their second start you would expect there's going to be some maturation there's going to be some improvement so uh eager to see how some of these horses perform in this race but in the very next race we're going to go to race number seven which is is also a mainten special weight for 2-year-olds but this one we are going on the dirt uh six furlongs and uh this one I went with a horse that I'm eager to talk about in a little bit but you went with a couple of big prices here so talk to me about your top selection number uh seven disco the que uh so um I to guess it's disco Tech am I right disco tech oh okay yeah I see it yeah um at least that's how I was going to say it I don't know um but that would be the right way to say David I um yeah there's a lot of guest work to be done in this race um it's one of those two-year-old Maiden races where I didn't feel like I had a good handle on the firsttime starters per se especially the horse that you picked on top um I there are no workout videos available so I hate just guessing with horse is in those situations I kind of feel like he's going to be live but I don't know for sure um and disco Tech is another one where couldn't find any workout videos um was able to match up a couple of the workouts um one of them matches a maker traine cigarette boat who is a allowance Turf Sprinter um another work matches a horse named uh dracon who I I think must be in the maker barn now um but um another allowance type so interesting that this horse might have been working in company with some older horses and um there's a class in the pedigree when you go on the dam side um the second Dam I think was a Grade Three placed there is the dam herself is a half sister to some uh to multiple Stakes placed Runners so maker has just been seemingly sending out Runners that outrun the rods in so many situations so many levels he's already send out a couple of two-year-old first-time starter winners at this meet that were fair prices um so I just feel like disco Tech is one that's not going to take a ton of money in this race and has a look of one that might be a little bit live now I do have to you know after everything you said about maybe not having the best feel in the race I feel like your value play is an appropriately named horse shot in the dark uh at 10 to one uh so uh talk a little bit about this one making the second start for Jenna antonucci yeah I mean there are a couple Runners with experience in this race both coming out of the same race with very similar running lines I think CK wonder the number eight is the one that looks a little more appealing because he held on a little better after contesting the pace um but shot in the dark was the one that was dueling with that horse early and he faded a little bit more in the latter stages of that race but Jenna antonucci is a trainer who doesn't usually have her firsttime starters cranked up to win on debut um I I often like to look at the train ratings in time form us to get a glance of what different trainers do well especially from one start to the next um we assign ratings on a z to 100 scale and it kind of shows different scenarios and um Jenna antonucci gets a 38 out of 100 rating with first- time starters and a 79 out of 100 with second time starters which just kind of speaks to how much better she does when horses get that start under their belt and um shot in the dark I think if he can just have gained a little more Fitness from that debut run he could run better here I mean he got a 66 buyer on debut which um with even minor Improvement it puts him within par for the level um so I feel like he's going to be a decent price in here and he's one that I could use a little bit but like I said I just want to search for some prices in this race because I didn't have solid information on the runners that I think are going to be shorter yeah it is it it's definitely a little bit of a swing into the dark for me it's not even a shot in the dark but uh the number three Tip Top Thomas a 3 to one I'll be honest you're right about not being able to watch the workouts but whenever you see a Todd Pletcher 2-year-old firing off consecutive bullets you just don't see that very often I mean Pletcher notoriously tends to work his horses a little bit on the slower side sometimes and you really don't even see some of his better horses firing off bullets and so to see this young horse that has some precocity up top volatile I think has been you know while maybe not at the level of aoma or complexity or some of these other first crop sers he's had first crop success uh four for 22 with his first out starters 18% uh and the dam attempt to the name uh attempt to name I should say uh has produced a first out winner and is actually five for eight producing first out runners hitting the board so definitely some precocity there like I said the last two bullets uh back in August 10th first of 73 and then the one that really is eye-catching on August uh 17th was first of 161 which was a 47 flat bullet gate work uh so that's something that just really kind of caught my eye i r Ortiz Jr up on the mount uh just have a feeling this one's live and so that's where I went another one and this is I usually don't bring this up during shows but I will say had a little bit of inside information on the number 10 uh sovereignty for Bill Mt and jockey by Junior Alvarado my colleague at nyra uh Darwin visaya was speaking with Junior Alvarado about this horse and Junior just told him he goes I have a very high opinion of this horse and he goes I think this could be one of M's better two-year-olds that he has uh and he goes I don't know if he's necessarily 100% % cranked up for debut but he's really talented and so I you know Junior had a high opinion of him and works him in the mornings and uh I thought 8 to one I just kind of made a mental note of that and thought okay that's kind of interesting and maybe something just to keep in mind maybe use a little bit of a flyer on this horse or maybe underneath was a horse that maybe Fades a little bit late uh in the race just you know if he's not all the way cranked up for this debut but uh interesting horse drawn to the far outside galphin homebred and owned so uh that's was my value play in that seventh race but we will uh head over to I'll just make a couple just make a couple notes on those hor so I mean I watched some of the workouts and I I would say sovereignty um not the best away from the gate last time but he was really finishing best at the end of that work and I I feel like he's one that could be running on well and you know something to note about the Todd Pletcher horse tip toop Thomas um I know some people don't like to see multiple gate Works heading into a race and I I to some people it means to them that you know the horse needs work at the gate for Todd Pletcher he he almost always gives his horses at least two gateworks prior to debuting them and it's actually a really good sign for Pletcher when those two gate works are backtack and the last two Works before a debut race you often see those horses run very well when they have that pattern because usually what it means is when they have those two gateworks and then a race that they were probably the winners of those workouts which means that they sort of qualified in the ranking to make that debut in the afternoon so I I would take that as a good sign for him if some people are seeing that and wondering about it no that's a really great point and I typically that's interesting you bring that up daveid because it's something I've talked to other people about before which is I don't mind seeing two gate works I get worried when I start seeing three or four gate works and then I go okay maybe there is an issue here especially it's repeatedly and then I go okay like they they didn't work something out here now they're going back to it and uh and and so that's a concern but like you said with Pletcher two in a row that doesn't doesn't necessarily bother me especially with how strong they were overall uh sometimes if you see a slower gate workor followed by maybe a mediocre gate workk and you go okay you know there there's some issues here potentially but uh yeah it's gonna be it's gonna be a fun race I mean I always enjoy these two-year-old Maiden races on the undercard of these big days because a lot of times these trainers and the owners and the connections really want to make a big in imprint on a day like today and have a horse that wins on the Travers undercard uh so that they can kind of promote the horse in their next start but uh let's move to race number eight which is a 95,000 allowance for three-year-old nup New York Breads and we're going a mile in the 16th on the melon Turf course and this one was a kind of an interesting race for me and I went to a trainer that we've not talked about yet but who is incredibly hot that is the trainer for the number for clear conscience five to one and that is Mark Cassie uh who has been turning out winners all over the place I will say he's had a lot of two-year-old success uh this meet in particular but Cassie's been 31% during this meet picks up Jose Ortiz on the mount this horse is come in with h back-to-back second place finishes the last two times out and admittedly probably needs to kind of make that move forward and but I think at five to one is at least a decent enough price for a barn uh that is you know tends to be pretty hot right now and is actually coming out of the Lisa Lewis Barn is making the first start for Cassie horses managed to get a work in the new barn as well which I like to see and like said picks up Jose Ortiz there at 5 to one I you know the horse obviously needs to finish a little bit more one for nine winning a lot of underneath finishes which is something that does concern me sometimes in those running lines but I just thought a horse that had some tactical early speed to be able to sit within a few lengths of the pace and then uh make a move at the top of the stretch and Jose has been riding the turf I thought relatively well during this meet but uh interested in you talking a little bit about final uh denial as your top pick in this race yeah I mean I think the prices on a lot of these horses depend on how much money the number five rhetorical takes because he was a horse that I turned a lot of heads on debut when he drew off to win by five lengths first out for uh for will Walden a horse that had generated a lot of Buzz coming into that race to go off the price that he did and um I know the buyer didn't come back that fast um the time form us speed figure just Towers over this field so I kind of wonder what we're going to get from him second timeout and how much money he's going to take um but assuming that he is the favorite in here you know I wanted to prove it to me against a better field I was just looking for some horses that are going to be better prices one of those is the number one final denial who has something to prove stretching out in distance for the first time but um this is a worse that I think has the pedigree to go longer for sure being by mendleson who I've really taken a liking to as a Turf sire I know he doesn't get so many of those grade one quality horses but when you look up his stats I mean he just gets nothing but Runners and they all seem to take to the turf and on the bottom side of this pedigree it's really not a Sprint pedigree there's a lot of stamina influences in here it's a Chester and Mary Broman family that goes back a little ways the second dam was a very good dirt router so there is stamina there and I wonder if Kristoff clont just you know broke this horse's ma Maiden going six on the dirt and said well I think he's a Turf Horse let's just go to six on the turf and he ran so well that they kept him sprinting but to debut this horse going seven furong I think at one time there had to be some thought to stretch this horse out eventually and I think they just may have wound up going in the other direction because those are the races that came up for him now he's stretching out in distance watching him run I don't think he's going to have a problem with it he's drawn well towards the inside in a race where some of the others that I like were a little hindered by post position a little bit so um I just thought if he's around that 10 to one line um I could take a price on him even making that stretch out which typically isn't a move that I love yeah absolutely and listen a lot of times with the Kristoff clont bar when I see those types of mov moves there's a certain level of confidence you have with certain trainers to just go this trainer knows what they're doing particularly on the turf and so stretching this horse out from those Sprints to routes I think makes a lot of sense and it's interesting Mendelson that's a sire that I've also really warmed up to over the last you know year or two and it's interesting I was at the face of Tipton sales a couple of weeks ago up here at Saratoga and there's a lot of excitement about Mendelson in the New York bread world because of the incoming topa track at Belmont and there's a lot of thought that Mendelson is going to be a very effective sire for some of these New York bread horses so gonna be an interesting thing to keep an eye on um but you were speaking of post position and you went to the inside you went to the far outside with your value play uh rabaja at 10 to one a horse that I really liked but I was a little concerned about the post position but certainly Talent there for sure yeah I'm all about the book ends here um rabaja I he showed the talent too back when he broke his Maiden to to hang with a field like this I mean that 85 buyer you can look back and poke some holes in it because some horses came back to maybe not run quite as well but if it's high it's only High by a few points and um he was a visually impressive winner that day and he tried winners for the first time in the last start in Late July and the trip just really didn't work out for him that day I mean he got cut off heading into the clubhouse turn got a little rank after that was just in an uncomfortable pos position behind and between horses a lot of the way and when you watch the race where he was successful as opposed to those other three races I think it becomes apparent that he is a horse that has this long stride that sort of needs to get into his own Rhythm to have success and when he's kind of stopping and starting in behind other horses that's when he doesn't run well so maybe the outside post could act to be a bit of a blessing in disguise for him because it's going to give Kendrick Carmo an opportunity to get him into that better better Rhythm and go forward not worrying so much about finding position around other horses um he might be in for a wide trip and that's a little bit of a concern but there's ability there and I think he's going to be the right kind of price yeah I agree with you about those horses that have those big long strides and need a little bit of time to get into them and those outside post positions can be rather advantageous uh I'll just touch very quickly on my value play in this race which I think is probably more of an underneath play in my opinion but that's number seven Miracle Mike 8 to one for Tom Morley with Javier costano up on the mount and this is one that's just been incredibly consistent the last several times out on the turf basically has run that mid to high 70 buyer speed figure has kind of shown up run third the last couple of times out won an optional claimer starter allowance forb back the race three back was taken off the turf so you just kind of at least for me I just kind of toss that effort uh and you look at the rest of those efforts and they're all pretty consistent to be at this price and or at this level I should say and again an 8 to one maybe a horse I'm more interested in including in an X-Acto or trifecto than rather necessarily as an up top play but I thought one that at 8 to1 provided a little bit of value let's head to the Slate of five consecutive graded One races on the card and that is uh starting it off with the Sword Dancer a grade one going a mile and a half on the inner Turf we agree on the value play but we disagree on the Applebee you went to the other Applebee I went to the main Applebee I I can't believe I picked the Applebee that doesn't have William Buick uh on but uh talk a little bit about measured time and what is going to be a fascinating race because these two horses put on some put on a show uh the last time each of them ran in the Diana and the Bowling Green respectively or the Manhattan I should say yeah it's kind of choosing between the Applebee that you know really well versus the Apple be that you know a little less well and I went for the one that's a little more unfamiliar to us in the number two measured time um who does have some things to prove coming into this race because silver not I think he um you don't have the question mark of the distance he's already proven that he's at his best going that far and measure time hasn't done that yet he tried the mile and a half one time early his career on an all- weather surface overseas and it was one of his least um impressive races over there but he's at time to mature since then and I think it's interesting that applebe is giving him this chance not only only to try the distance but to do so racing against his stablemate and yeah together these are two of the best Turf fores that we've seen compete anywhere in the country I mean kind of up there with cogir there silver not measured time and I mean they're three of the most impressive Turf fores that we've seen on the track this year um so it's not only interesting but also a really sporting decision of Charlie Abby to run these two against each other before the Breeders Cup when so many trainers have a couple of top horses in their barn and he has way more than a couple but is kind of looking to to just separate them and run in the the paths of least resistance heading into the Breeders Cup and I mean he's seeing if these two stack up against each other which I think is just a really cool thing um measure time he's of course the half brother the rebels romance who wants every of this mile and a half distance measure time is a son of Frankle so we'll see um if he actually is able to get the trip on Saturday um but what I liked about watching back his Manhattan is as impressive as he was during the race and he was really impressive because William Buick made no attempt to save ground at any point in that race just knew he could go two to three wide around the field and still win easily I mean he rode him with the utmost confidence but beyond that after the wire they could not get this horse pulled up I mean he just kept Galloping out into the clubhouse turd opening up on the field and William Buick had a a tougher time trying to pull him up after the race than he had riding him during the race and it just feels to me like this is a horse that has matured and gotten better over time and the fact that they have the confidence to try this grade one against Rebels Ro against um silver not I think it's a good sign and if he is indeed the second choice then maybe he's offering a slightly better value in my view than his stablemate yeah absolutely feel like this is a race it's going to obviously kick off our late pick five and it really does put betters I think in a little bit of a conundrum because I think you know general rule of thumb is you don't want to include two horses that are going to be even money in seven to five on your tickets and double the cost of your tickets and so it really kind of forces you which applebe do you like if you think these two are the class of the field I think we both do um I ultimately went with the other direction with silver KN a horse that you mentioned how measure time matured silver not another one that just took such a nice step forward from three to four years old it seems like and has just become such a good horse in this Marathon uh Turf Division and flavan Pratt has ridden this horse to Victory the last three times out and the Bowling Green was just so impressive setting a track record and doing it without even really being asked for his best uh and just got out up front and was never really tested at any point one of the things I like about silver knut is that versatility the horse can sit off the pace and sit he can kind of stck the pace or he can take the lead if necessary so it gives him a lot of options but it's interesting because measured time is a pretty fast horse as well so these two are likely to be part of the early Pace scenario in this race and and again kind of interesting tactics here in terms of who's going to take to the lead who's going to be wining to sit second and listen I I it's hard to make a distinction between these two and you're right if measured time is a little bit of a better price maybe of the better value because these two are just outstanding uh and I think actually two of Applebee's best horses that he has it all so uh Cinderella's dream is a three-year-old that I really like that he has also but uh you know these two are just so impressive in this race um we both ultimately though landed on Farbridge as a value play and this is a one coming out of the clont barn at 8 to1 and this was a horse David I liked this horse so much last year and I thought this horse was gonna take more of a step forward this year and has been facing tougher and maybe just not doing quite what I thought uh but I was talking with aasia clemont who knows a little bit about this Barn needless to say and she said the post positions the last couple of times out have just not done this horse any favors there's a horse that likes to run on the inside and what's so interesting about this horse is he doesn't just like to run covered up because a lot of European horses like to run covered up he likes to make his move inside as well uh and he doesn't like to angle out of the top of the stretch he prefers to stay inside and hug the rail all the way up which is such an interesting riding style quite frankly that you just don't see many American jockeys or horses do so uh I thought you get Joel Rosario up on here uh joelle's ridden this horse a couple of times before in the American Turf from The pany Ridge and as well as in debut where he beat Carl spackler uh I don't know I thought this one if any horse can upset the two Applebees I thought it was this one an interesting horse nonetheless nobody loves to make that rail move more than Joelle who uh is always finding that spot along the inside um much to my shrin earlier today um but um Farbridge look I don't think he can win the race because beating one Applebee let alone two Applebees it's G to be a really tall order um but I will say he had no chance with the trip that he got in the UN last time I mean he was legitimately three wide around all three turns you can't get that kind of trip and be successful in a race like that so he's better than that but um it's going to be tough to beat the favorites here yeah it it it definitely is and he's a horse that uh again you know two back you look he was you know two and a half two and a quarter lengths beaten by measured time so listen he's not that far off maybe on his best day and sometimes some of the simplest ways to play is just to do a simple xacta with you know if you want to if you really think measured time's going to be your favorite or your top choice or silver knot hey just do a two three exact or four three exact or something like that try to make a little bit of money that way but let's head on to the next race which is the ballerina handicap and I was a little surprised that both of us ended up going against your even money favorite vava who is really good at seven furlongs but we ultimately both landed on a horse that I'm just intrigued by in terms of Sila for Bill Mt coming out of the Clement Hirsch last time out finishing second to aair Manor who's one of the has to be considered one of the top horses in that dis staff division one of the certainly one of the potential favorites going into or certainly one of the top favorites going into uh the Breeders Cup because she's really taking a step forward this year feels like it matured but this is a horse that won the FLIR to lead two back and now suddenly M Cuts this horse back on three weeks rest basically and enters her in a grade one going seven furong you just don't see these types of moves from Bill Mott very often and you know it's interesting when you go back and look through the past performances and I'm interested in your thoughts on this it does look like her best efforts are going around one turn and you know those two mile races at Churchill even the debut it's like she was dominant doing those things and then the pedigree I think just says oh she will want more ground because she's the you know obviously the full sibling to both tacitus and Baton down who we'll talk about later in the card but maybe she's just a one- turn Sprinter and she could be a really really good one potentially yeah I mean I see good things and bad things with Sila I mean the good is I agree with your assessment I I think that the turnback is actually going to really work for her because you go back and watch some of those races and I mean she showed a nice turn of foot even just to win on debut going the six furlongs I I mean she traveled so well into that race going a you know a faster pace of a Sprint distance and you know they stretched her out because of the pedigree but I don't know if she really ever got any better as the distances got longer she just kind of kept running those same races and maybe it sort of masked the Improvement that she otherwise would have shown and I think the need for a turn back became so clear in the last race in the Clement Al hir when she sort of ran off a little bit on Mike Smith and moved a little too soon and got caught by a d Manor at the end not that it's any disgrace getting caught by maybe the best uh older female in the division um but it is interesting turn um turning back and doing it just three weeks later I think when these great ones come along though you got to run in them I mean it you could wish the baller was five weeks away instead of three but once you kind of learn something about the horse this is the race that's coming up and either you wait to turn her back in the Breeders Cup or you do it now and I think it makes some sense to to to do it now um the bad news is I I think I got this line wrong and I think 7 to two is a bit of a a bit of a dream on Sila um I would have had the prices a lot closer between her and vava if I could do it again um V was gonna be the favorite but I I seen everybody pick Sila in this race which I kind of understand she's sort of the obvious new face the alternative and there's seemingly upside there um one more thing I would noce if you look up some stats in formulator for Bill M he has really good numbers turning hores back not just in general but specifically in gred stakes races and you kind of think about some of the horses he's done this with over the years the Cody's Wishes the elite Powers the um obligator I mean he's done this a number of times so um I think it makes some sense and I expect her to run really well in this race I just think you're probably gonna get five to two or two to one on her yeah it'll be interesting to see because a horse like Society is also in this race who's uh probably going to be controlling speed or at least competing with it with the number eight money's gold who is entered in a race on Friday on the turf so we'll see uh where that one goes I would imagine Todd's going to run this horse here but does have a Turf work so we'll see uh maybe he had some plans for this one to change surfaces but uh I will briefly mention a horse that uh David you had mentioned you have a couple pets I have a couple pets as well uh and uh posano Sunset is one of those and this is a horse I've always really liked for Ian wils going back to those Gulf Stream Park races and uh you know even going back to you know some of the races in Kentucky before that and I I just this horse I think seven furong is the right distance I think this horse is going to run into some Pace obviously again if the number eight money's gold runs then I think that there's a little bit of a a match race up front between her and Society I I think that sets up perfectly for a horse on the inside rail uh and I just think this horse at 15 to1 at a really big price could maybe run up into something obviously finished second last time out to vaba earning that 97 buyer speed figure that was third race back on the farm cycle after a pretty significant layoff and the horse has been training extremely well leading up to this race so just at 15 to1 again more of a horse to consider using underneath I'm not saying that this is the horse that's going to win this race but interested in your vertical Exotics throwing at a big price if you like Sila if you like vava maybe throw in patan Sunset as well and a trifecta might be able to enrich it so it's not just kind of two favorites in this race but this should be a fun one because vava you know listen talk about a horse that really doesn't do much wrong particularly at seven furlongs uh for sh devau but I think one of the things that's so interesting is a lot of the horses that she has been pressed by have typically been horses that I think would get the better of her at six furlongs but she just really benefits that last furong now suddenly you're dealing with Sila who she can run the seven that's not the issue I mean she has the foundation to go longer so she doesn't necessarily have that advantage over a horse like Society who may shorten up a little bit late uh and and things like that so uh again GNA be a really fun race in this one yeah and I don't have a value play for that race I didn't want to make up an opinion I don't have I VI it I view it as the two main players yeah no absolutely uh and let's head to the number 11 race which is the foro and another grade one seven furong on the dirt this one's for the boys and you and I are both fading the favorite in this race which is the number six Molin and much to my father Chagrin were both fading his favorite horse baby Yoda uh but but uh we we can give a shout out to my dad real quick who is the number one baby Yoda supporter and will inevitably text me on Saturday and ask me to put down a$2 show bet on that horse because he lives in South Carolina and sadly cannot bet uh but I might have just admitted to a federal number one person have people blocked on Twitter too right yes he has somewhere between 20 and 25,000 people blocked on Twitter and he doesn't know did it sorry about that David we're going to work to try to get that undone and so it's trust me when I say it was not intentional and the man has no idea what he's doing on that thing so it is just one of the many storylines about my father but listen let's talk about this race like I said we both went past mullikin as the favorite in this spot you went to horse angor who I know our mutual friend Gino Bola I talked to him he's a big fan of this horse as well at 12 to1 that's a it's a nice price if you can get this one home yeah so the way I look at this race is Mullin can win obviously but feel like with all those wins showing recently being undefeated this season I think people are going to sort of want him to be the heir to this Division coming into this race because this division kind of needs a you know somebody to step into the the shoes of leading it I mean there's just it's so wide open right now I mean aside from the chosen Von at West um there's just nobody on the East Coast that's really the dominant Sprinter in this division right now so maybe this race kind of decides that a little bit but um mullikin to me he's just faced weaker company in his recent starts he needs to prove it here I know this isn't the strongest forego that we've ever seen but I think it's still a tougher race than he's um been competing in recently uh so I I I didn't want him and I was looking at some Alternatives and of the Alternatives I was considering I thought the one that was going to offer the best value and be the best price was Anor and speaking of class as I'm looking at the races that some some of these horses are exiting you might take a glance at the races that Anor is coming out of and say well just listed stakes and allowance races does he really class up but I think if you look beyond the gradings of these races and who he was facing You could argue that he's kept some of the best company of anybody in this race three times in a row he's faced Clos the game sugar and you can make an argument that Clos the game sugar has turned into one of the best dirt sprinters in the country right now went out to California and chased home The Chosen Von to be second in a grade one very recently and um Anor actually beat that rival Clos the game Sugar by four lengths starts back didn't run as well in the arises but the trip that day didn't work out for him Skelly was in that race I think Martin Garcia was very concerned with not getting engaged in Skelly and I think in doing so sort of just disengaged enor from the race completely um but came back last time and ran a competitive race against Clos the game Sugar who I believe if you're running in this race would be the favorite and uh I thought based on the last race Anor putting a performance that makes him competitive here I like the seven Phil Bower seems like every horse sends out out runs its odds with this meet and uh he's drawn well outside for a horse with that running style so um I just think he's pretty interesting and might get somewhat overlooked in this race no I couldn't agree more and uh give a shout out to our friend Sarah El badwi and one of her pets he also beat Hoist the gold the grade two winner of the scar mile last time out as well so you're right I think it's so important I think so many times in these Sprints both Turf Sprints and dirt Sprint sometimes you find these listed stakes races that really have strong Fields uh and you have to kind of dive into the field rather than just looking at the class level couldn't agree more with you about Anor and Phil Bower yeah turning a lot of stuff out live right now I ultimately went right next door to sharid ofos hor kostro as my top choice and uh this is one who again another horse a little bit like posano Sunset that I've always been a really big fan of and this is one that's been training incredibly well coming into this race and seems like the one- turn setup might be what's best for this horse I remember that second place to Scotland uh way back in 2023 uh and where he really closed from the back but I think this horse has shown a little bit better early speed with the addition of blinkers last couple of times out and uh you know obviously can handle going two turns you know ran I thought a really good second in that blame the Highland Falls and but then came back in the handin and got the job done over tumbarumba who I think is a really honest Runner and you know maybe he more of a golf stream Park horse but it's still a really good horse and that's very consistent uh and then a horse like Ray Kane a solid horse in his own right so again looking at class and who he's been running against I think there's something there horse has been the model of consistency in terms of speed figures that's kind of answered the questions of whether he can win off lasx at least with that last win in the hand chin like I said has been training well at 9 to2 should offer a little bit of value Jose Ortiz back aboard having ridden this one uh two and three starts back so uh that's where I went as my top pick but we both like uh the number five run classic for Jose D'Angelo as a value play at five to one and this one you know to some extent was a same sort of thing in terms of looking at the class but then second start after that long layoff having run overseas this spring yeah he's a horse that when you kind of draw a line through that golden Shaheen overseas um which he didn't get the best trip in anyway um he's got form that makes him very competitive in here and when you especially isolate his one turn sprint races um he fits really well just a string of speed figures that uh put him in the mix probably hasn't faced company that's as strong as some others in this race aside from that race in Dubai where he didn't run so well um but I think he's going to be every bit of that 5 to one whereas well our friend Andy Sterling told me that he thinks kostra could be favored in this race which I don't quite agree with but um I guess he's the kind of horse that might be drawing some people in um so I mean if the prices on those Wares do diverge at all I think it could be run classic that's the one that's drifting up a little bit so um I think if you get paid on him you can Overlook the fact that maybe this is a slight class hike but um no this s that is shown ability you know going all the way back to the start of his career um and I've always liked him going a little bit shorter so uh I think he's one that's going to run well in this race absolutely I think so too and well we might talk about another opinion that Andy Sterling has that I might disagree with here in a race or two but uh for the most part I agree with Andy but every once in a while I have to disagree um let's talk about the H all and jurkin the next race the grade one seven fongs on the dirt for your three-year-olds David I said it to somebody I said I think this is the most EX race out of outside of the Breeders Cup maybe this year for me just personally this is a absolutely loaded field I think you can make a legitimate case for maybe nine horses to win this race out of the 11 that are drawn in uh and that might even be under selling the two that I don't think you could make a case for because this is just an incredible lineup of sprinters I mean you just talked about how there's not an East Coast horse that's really stepped up to take the Manel as the top Sprinter well they're coming next year that's for sure because this is a really strong group three-year-old sprinters and I I just want to start off by asking you when you look at this was this the most challenging line to make on the day or kind of how you approach this race from the standpoint of making the line because my gosh to to make a distinction between some of these horses had to be difficult it was a tough line to make for the top four or five choices especially because I mean I I think I know who's going to be the favorite in this race in bookham Dano I mean I I feel like he's a horse that has a base level of support but kind of figuring out how they they were going to bet the domestic products or the Timber Lakes or the horses that haven't really been facing these types in the past the turn backs um they were tough to Peg horse like Speak Easy or world record who's kind of got that one number last time um I'm not confident that I kind of have the third fourth fifth sixth choices ranked in the right order um but uh yeah not easy when you've got horses coming in from multiple directions as is the case with this race and you know you say it's a really interesting race to handicap and I completely agree with that and yet I landed on the horse that I think is going to be the favorite which you're often trying not to do but um I don't think bookham Deno even if he does go favored is gonna be that short of price just because this field is so competitive and I just think this horse is really good he shows up every time he makes his own good trip and he yet maybe doesn't quite get the respect that he deserves I mean I've seen different takes on this race and you know he's not necessarily viewed as you know Far and Away the most likely winner I I've seen some other people that are looking very much forward to betting other horses in this race um and I just trust bookham down to run his race going to seven I love the decision by the connections to show up here they had the option to go to Charlestown instead and take the path of least resistance I think it's a great sporting decision to run in this grade one instead when maybe there isn't the same upside for them having a gelding um that they could have around for multiple years as opposed to some of these others who might be whisked off to the breeding shed if they win this race so um I love having him in it and you know I wonder if the fact that Iran is on somebody else is maybe gonna even drive up the price a little bit further probably shouldn't I think people read too much into that stuff and I'm sure irad and his agent kind of thought well we don't have a commitment from book ofdo let's get a mount in this race and I think irat is a mount in every single race on Saturday so um they did well in that department um but just take it apart bookham Dano's races when I watch back Woody Stevens I mean it was even better than I remembered that was a suicidal Pace he was at not nearly as far off that pace other horses who were involved in the Finish he made the first move to break that race open at the top of the stretch opened up on the field in mid-stretch and still had enough to find a little bit extra at the end to hold off uh Prince of Monaco who was really charging late I thought it was a stellar performance I'm not g to hold the margin of victory in the Jersey Shore against him last time because little knee is a really good horse and also was just better going the seven furlongs so um I think this is a great spot for him and uh I believe he's the most likely winner by a ways so that's why I ended up on the favorite no I listen it's a fa it's a race where I've seen a lot of people go oh I'll try to beat bookham Dano I think it's simply more I think it's less about their opinion or lack thereof in bookham Dano and more about just how many potential options there are in this race and horses that provide upside and maybe some potential Talent uh and I ultimately landed on the second choice which is not very creative either in terms of the number five Prince of Monaco the horse that you mentioned that was 16 lengths back at one point and you're right that was an incredibly suicidal Pace uh that they ran that day in the Woody Stevens but what impressed me so much about that horse obviously trained by Bob Baer coming in from California uh for that race was that was the first start in seven months and this was the first start in 2024 and ran almost ran bookham Dano down down at the end Prince am mono just looks to be a very very good one- turn horse and really the only blemish and the only kind of negative uh race was that two- turn Breeders Cup juvenile uh where clearly that's just not going to be in his Arsenal in terms of going long bford brings him back on the east coast and I thought that was kind of interesting now you're right there's you know there's only so many grade ones and but at the same time I thought you know gez Bob could have maybe kept him out in California uh because the Breeders Cup is out there just keep him out west don't have to ship him back East but the fact they're shipping him back here in this tough of a field uh I think really speaks to uh the level of confidence he's got second now start uh for the year and uh and he's one that has good early speed and there shouldn't be as much speed in this race as there was in that Woody Stevens I don't think they'll go quite as fast up front so I would imagine Prince and Monaco and bookham Dana will both be traveling kind of more of a tracking trip I would imagine within a few lengths of the race rather than this strung out field that is you know 10 15 lengths back uh at second call uh my value play in this one went against your value play last time out and world record got the win in the Amsterdam and this is a horse that I don't know just dumb luck has drawn the rail now four consecutive races in a row so he's got plenty of experience breaking from the inside rail which I'm glad to see because usually I don't like that in Sprints but uh this one Rudy prette put the blinkers on and that seemed to make all the difference in the world last time out that put the this horse just broke like a rocket and never looked back now this time it might not be that easy little knee on the far outside I think has really really good early speed and is going to want to be up and forward and potentially engaging world record but I just thought at 8 to one a horse that maybe has maybe Rudy's got the right combination of things there obviously does lose flavy and Pratt who had his choice of horses among many in this race and ended up on domestic product we haven't even talked about yet um but I thought 8 to1 was a little bit of an interesting hor but you went to the horse that actually went off favored that day and now you're getting a much better price on a horse like Jefferson Street at 12 to1 yeah and I'm not sure that the actual margin in ability between world record and Jefferson Street is as great as the actual margin on the track in the Amsterdam because while July 26th wasn't one of the most biased racetracks that we've seen at the meet I did think it was one of those days where rail position was an advantage and once world record broke so alertly from the inside and was able to get to the the front and the inside I think it might have enhanced his performance a little bit and maybe chasing outside by Jefferson Street wasn't the best trip that day but I do like his outside post position for this race because there is speed near as you said he can sort of let little knee cross over in front of him if that one wants to go forward and just kind of perch outside and see what happens in front and maybe make that move to pounce at the quarter pole is he quite good enough to beat the likes of bookham Dano domestic product and Prince of Monaco some others I don't know but he does have that buyer two back that puts right in the mix and like you said he's going to be a much better price than he was last time so I think if you're going to hop on the bandwagon of a horse maybe you know a starter two too late you want to do it when it's at the right price and uh he is going to be here yeah I couldn't agree more and you know I'm glad you mentioned uh both domestic product who is just an intriguing horse obviously everybody remembers from the Kentucky Derby and being on the Derby Trail now is cutting back and and that seemed to just fit him like a glove last time out winning that dwire in impressive fashion by seven and a half lengths I don't you know again I don't know how great that field was with regards to the Hades and Bal but still uh the horse seemed to put it all together ran a big number in that race and the horse that I'm particularly intrigued to see I don't know how I'll be using this horse is Timberlake uh a horse that Brad Cox said after the Arkansas Derby was likely gonna get turned back to a Miler and then he goes to the bench and comes back and runs in the grade one hasell his first race off which is the opposite of cutting back to a mile uh going a mile and an eighth against grade one company and that race should have just conf confirm that he's a Miler because he ran a really good Mile and really struggled with last furong uh so I I would imagine that he's a horse that could see that similar sort of buyer Inc uh speed figure increase that we saw a horse like domestic product have the first time he tries going one turn yeah and just to touch upon Timberlake I'm never somebody who has been in the Timberlake is a sprinter Camp I know that there are a lot of people who believe that I wonder if Timberlake was just a highly developed two-year-old that hasn't really gone on as a three-year-old that seems a little more likely to me just given how his physical development transpired over time but um maybe this is the race to take a shot with him if you are of that opinion that he wants shorter yeah absolutely uh and we see a lot of those types in terms of horses that are just very precocious and physically developed at two and then you know just don't really grow that much at three and speaking of that one of those horses is potentially in this next race the Traverse and I'm talking referring to fierceness uh who was of course your Breeders Cup juvenile winner last year in Champion two-year-old but uh has maybe not taken the sort of step forward people thought he might but listen that let's talk about the headlining race Travers grade one mile and a quarter on the dirt I found it interesting how you and I have completely different approaches to potentially how this place uh race is playing out with you really liking two horses that are going to be up on the front end and me liking two horses that are going to be coming from off the pace uh this is an intriguing race David and again I ask you from a Morning Line standpoint you had four horse hes Doric fierceness thorpedo Anna and Sierra Leon who all felt like very similar horses I mean how much you take into consideration just the amount of betting interest that torpedo Anna is going to take and and kind of explaining to Folks at home again the morning line is not trying to predict who you think is the best horse first through fourth it's trying to predict where the Public's gonna go yes uh and trying to predict where the public is going to go in a race like this can be difficult because a lot of these horses um have fan bases but I think those have evolved over time and when you throw a horse like thorpedo Ana into the mix who hasn't faced these horses before um it's tough to really gauge her level of support against some of these others um I'll say when I was making the line earlier last or this week or last week hard to know when these are due at this point um uh I I was gonna make her the favorite I had her as the five to two favorite and this time for The Travelers I had the luxury of seeing the post draw before I had to submit the line whereas in the past you guys have done the draw events where I have to submit the line before the draw happens which I don't like but sometimes that's necessary um so once I saw the post position draw I kind of said to myself well the two horses that could be most affected by the draw are fierceness obviously and thorpedo Anna and I might adjust either of those to if they draw any kind of extreme post position and they both Drew extreme post positions one getting the rail the other getting the perfect outside post so um I did adjust her up a little bit and fieron down a little bit which actually made them the co-c choices um so that's kind of how I was thinking about it and also as popular as torpedo Ana is and as much as this story has kind of Taken hold over the summer once it's been confirmed that she's going to run I don't know of too many handicappers in my circle that actually want to better in this race so I I wonder how much money she's going to take fans support verus like hardcore wagering support so um I was trying to weigh both of those factors in creating the line absolutely no I and I think it's a it's a difficult challenge to do with these sorts of races and with this group in particular but let's talk about your top Pick dorick 5 to2 the morning line favorite this horse is I actually think that you have my I don't know if you can change it but I think my picks are wrong here um dorick I made the value play and my topic is match wisdom oh okay I'm very sorry for that okay talk about uh unmatched wisdom in that case not batting down my apologies uh and so talk a little bit about unmatched wisdom in the spot that is your top pick so um unmatched wisdom is a horse that has some things to prove coming into this race clearly he's never faced competition that's this tough before really not even close to it but as I was handicapping this race and especially as I was thinking about thorpedo Anna and what kind of scenario could make me interested in her in a race like this because she is a horse that has some things to prove I mean she's been so visually impressive in her races but she's got to get a little faster and I was as I was thinking about her I was kind of thinking to myself well I know she's a Philly and he's a cult but unmatched wisdom kind of has a very similar profile and that he's run you know those High 90 buyers he's been so visually impressive but kind of like her he's never faced competition that's tough the difference is he's going to be two or three times the price of thorpedo Ana in all likelihood and when I watch his races I just get the sense that there's more there um the first two starts clearly he was never really asked for his best he didn't have to be he won so easily but the last time in the CID I know corporate power got within a length of him at the wire that day um when I watched that race once unmatched wisdom got to the front I mean he just kept like flicking his ears back and forth waiting for the next few from flavi and Pratt um and even at the top of the stretch once he was asked for for run I mean he he kicked away from corporate power flicked his ears like he said you know forward like is my job done yet and then flavan had to set him down again and he switched over his left lead approaching the wire just felt like yeah the margin was just decreasing at the end but also the horse just wasn't totally focused and Chad Brown has said on a number of occasions that he believes this horse is going to be better with a Target and I know some people are handicapping this race with him being a speed I think the plan is to take him a little off the pace and ride him as a stalker potentially in behind some of those speedrunners and watching his races I think that's really going to work for him because he's a horse that kind of wants to track and then go catch that Target and you can see him sort of you know realize once he gets pass the horse in the races so is he good enough to beat the main players in here I don't know but I believe he's going to run well and I think the price is going to be enough for me to find out so um I I picked him in this race uh because he's the one that I want to bet I just couldn't make a strong enough case to bet any of the favorites in here David I I hear you on unmatched wisdom and I think that one of the things that I tried to you know point out I just did a Travers spotlight video on him the other day people who think that he's a rabbit for Sierra Leon are crazy uh he is not a rabbit for sier Leon first of all there's plenty of pace in this race without him in it so it's not like Chad needs another horse to press the pace there's plenty um and I was saying you know I was talking to someone the other day that I had the opportunity to speak to a lot of different press up here local press who talked to a lot of the trainers there's a gentleman up here Roger wiland for the local news and he was talking to Chad before the meet even started and he was talking about Sierra Leon and the Travers and all this stuff and Chad stopped the mid-sentence and said don't forget I have a horse named unmatched wisdom he might be the best of the group uh Chad's had a very high opinion of this horse uh and I think that's something that's very noteworthy in the spot 8 to one you're absolutely right getting much better value um you went to the other Chad I went to the main Chad uh feels like maybe we're you know on on a bit of a Turf race here uh but I ultimately went to sier Leon who I appreciate you making the the kind of highest Choice out of the favorites uh because that was probably the only way I was going to use this horse is if and I think from a betting standpoint this horse probably will be the fourth choice uh going into post I think dori's gonna get a lot of support I think for pedo Anna's gonna get a lot of support I think fierceness just people love that horse Todd Pletcher Mike rooley it's a New York type of a horse he's going to get a lot of uh support and sier Leon I just feel like this is the race he was bred to win uh the mile and a quarter should should do just fine and you're gonna get ample Pace in this race uh I agree with you about unmasked wisdom not necessarily being Breakneck I actually think the horse that could be the Breakneck horse up front is batten down that nobody's kind of taking into consideration I think Junior's knows he's got to be aggressive with that horse out of the gate and he's the one who could be the flying the ointment to some extent for d and for fierceness and even for thorpedo Ana potentially and so that's the one that I think could really kind of muck up the pace or make it even a little bit faster than it might already be on paper but when you have dorick and fierceness going at it up front you have thorpedo Anna presumably in that pocket trip kind of on the inside and potentially batting down pressing or even get trying to get to the lead on it from an inside position I just think it sets up for a horse that likes the distance is going to close you know nearly won the Kentucky Derby has has never finished out of the xacta has actually gotten progressively faster throughout his career you know I I I wish he had gotten by Fus in that Jim Dandy because I felt like he maybe hung a little bit in that race uh because you look at those strides of fierceness coming down the stretch and it was shortening up and his stride was nice and long and I thought man you have every chance to get by and he just didn't do it uh but that Belmont Stakes race you we talked about it on other races that was a pretty speed favoring track throughout that whole week and I felt like he was running against the track as much as he was running against himself sometimes as well as the rest of the field I was encouraged by the fact that he seemed to straighten out last time a little bit more effectively you didn't see the weaving throughout the lane that you had seen in some of his previous races flavan put him right on the rail which seemed to be a beneficial thing so I'm interested in seeing what this horse can do but I think he's just got loads of talent uh and I I'm really interested in seeing whether he can pull it off and whether he can make that amazing run down the lane coming for home because you you know thing he's gonna make his run he always does uh it's just whether or not he can get there in time and whether or not the race kind of sets up for him yeah I mean I I'm getting a little tired of him because I feel like the case that you've made for him is the same case that people have made the last couple of times in a row like oh he's supposed to win the Belmont it's the right pace scenario it's the right race well wait a minute he's GNA win the Jim Dandy I mean there are five speeds and Sir Leo he's got to win the race and he's kind of just keeps falling short but like he keeps running faster speed figures so he kind of keeps drawing you back in I I agree that he's going to run well in this race because he always does I picked him third in here um I just didn't want to have him on top and you know I'll jump into the horse that I made my value playe I kind of I probably confused you in doing this breaking rules a little bit I mean I highlighted door knock as the value play which um he's the morning line favorite um but you know value to me isn't just a big price I mean it's a horse that you think is going to be the right price and you know as I go through this field I think I'm getting the right price based on what I think his chances of winning are for unmatched wisdom and as I look at the rest of these especially the four favorites the horse that among them I think is going to be the right price is dornik um if I could have I would have made torpedo Sierra Leon uh dorick and fierceness all three to one but I don't think um anyone would would like me doing that but I mean that's that's kind of how I feel about the line for this race I don't know if d going to be the favorite um but I think the Public's kind of kind of view him in a clump with the rest but I personally view him as clearly the most likely winner of this race um he is the one horse that is coming in without really anything to prove I mean he's run at this level he's gotten um trips that um can be a little taxing particularly in the Belmont yeah maybe was a little bit with the track but that was a taxing pace and he just kept turning away challenge after Challenge and he's so gritty and when you look back through his past performances I mean it's just pretty clear at this point that when he gets that opportunity to kind of stick his head in front around the far turn he's not GNA lose I mean he just keeps fighting and grinding away and battling back uh and he just finds a way to win so um I'm not that concerned about him failing to show up in the race um as with Sierra Leone I mean I think we can view them in a similar light in that in that sense but I do trust doru to sort of Bear Down and actually win the race when it matters so um basically what I'm saying is I'm highlighting him as the value play because if I'm you know betting Exotics in this race he's the horse I want to key around if I'm you know betting trifectas or boxing things you know I want to he's the horse that I want to use with unmatched wisdom and key the both of them I mean Wagers whether it's multi-race sequences because I think for me they're the two horses where their prices are going to be commensurate to their chances of winning I he is a horse that I've become a big fan of in terms of dorno and and he's just a ubn son of a gun when he gets up there on the front end and he just does not like horses getting past and I remember someone pointed out that in the fountain of youth which he won rather non impressively that day that was a scratch depleted field locked was supposed to be there Speak Easy Victory Avenue all these horses scratched out and he was really not facing much competition and he won by about two lengths and was not what people expected he went off as an overwhelming I think one to nine favorite that day or close to it and you know and any but somebody pointed out he was just flicking his ears the entire time he was just looking for someone to come challenge him because that's kind of just the horse that he is he he doesn't really start to give his best until he knows he has to uh and he's gonna be challenged I mean fierceness is gonna try to you know sit that outside post position and and just hit that same trip he did in the Breeders Cup Juvenile and a little bit similar to what he did last time out in the Jim Dandy you have baton down he's gonna challenge him thorpedo Anna is going to make her run at some point at him uh you know you talk about unmatched wisdom kind of making a move and he's gonna get his challenges and but he's repelled all of them to this point and you know we make a big deal about the that run Catholic Boy made the fact that dori's done it now three straight you know times basically when he's on the front on the front end in the remson uh in the Belmont and the hasell lets a horse get by him and then fights back I youan just don't see that very often and just a a really cool horse and one that I think has developed a huge fan base as a result um I just want to talk very briefly about um my top or my value play I should say which is sh mes number four corporate power this is the horse that finished second to unmatched wisdom last time out in that klin horse won the Ser Barton two back and this is one you know part of me I I'm always a sucker for Suge Mah horses I think he manages his horses incredibly well he places his horses well he's not going to put a horse in a race that's kind of over their heads I don't think uh Suge has won this race four different times actually over the years uh so he knows what it takes to win the Travers I think this one is going to like the I think he's one's kind to like the distance obviously with the curling up top I I think you know has shown the ability to get stronger as races go on throughout his career and the other thing is unlike Sierra Leon unlike potentially honor Marie we'll see what the blinkers do with honor Marie but you know potentially unlike those two horses who are going to be closing from maybe double digits back corporate power should be sitting kind of just behind that clump of horses that want to be forward and might just kind of get the first crack and kind of get a good trip in that regard uh and maybe a horse like Fier who might be distance compromised or maybe thorpedo Ana doesn't quite measure up uh and you know I think there's some you know maybe bat and down starts to get a little bit tired at the end uh if it's if the pace is a little too fast and so I just think corporate power could end up being a horse that kind of trips out as the kids say and you know gets the right sort of setup in this race and I you know I don't know do I I don't have the horse picked up top I have as my second choice uh but I just think it's a horse that I'm interested in using in maybe some different ways uh in vertical Wagers in this race and again I if I ever go broke it's probably because I keep betting on sh MC horses too often but uh you know he's he's a trainer that I tend to like in these types of spots and I I just think uh this horse has some upside potential just like you talked with unmatched wisdom except you're getting maybe even a little bit more of a price with this one but uh uh it's gonna be a fascinating race and let me tell you something at the top of the stretch if thorpedo an is anywhere near the lead this place is going to be deafening uh on Saturday at Saratoga so this one's going to be a spectacle for sure well let's head to the bailout race and I think I actually have the right uh yeah we're set for this one yeah we're all set for this for this last one um and that is uh the 14th race because after you have five straight grade ones what you really need is a $50,000 Maiden claimer for three-year-olds and up going a mile out of the Wilson shoot uh and I will probably be hanging out by the shoot because that's right where by my office is actually uh and David I'll let you talk a little bit about your top pick here Deputy Mischief five to one on the far outside I mentioned sometimes they get worried about that far outside post position on the Wilson shoot but but this one is a very good horse and I think is an interesting uh potential I shouldn't say very good horse we're talking about a Maiden Still but I think this is an intriguing horse nonetheless in this spot at five to one yeah I got a little concerned about the post because um you don't see too many horses winning from post 10 on the Wilson shoot but I will say in this race there are a lot of plotting types to his inside that I think difficult to clear and this horse does have tactical speed and Linda is putting the blinkers on first time out for her bar so um I think the intention is going to be go forward and just try to clear as many horses as you can and I think it's uh gonna be possible to clear quite a few um I just think first off the trainer switch to Linda getting realistic probably not a made in special weight type of horse actually is coming out of a race that might be even a little better than speed figure indicates because the top two finishers have both come back to improve digital Ops was a sneaky good fourth um last week with an 87 buyer pentathlon came back to win with a 96 buyer so I think that was a a pretty solid race and um I just think this horse is getting class relief that he needs still some upside um and uh he's where I wanted to go in here I mean it's the kind of race where we could talk about almost every horse and actually have a pretty interesting discussion because there's a lot to go through If This Were a race on a Wednesday it might be one of the most interesting races on the card but at the end of Travers day I'm just kind of too exhausted to do it I hear you about that we've already done this for an hour and a half and so I'm right with you uh and I you know I went to a class dropper as well as my top selection you're right there's a lot of plotting types in this race and I went to the number two storm ready uh for four to one for Todd Pletcher Jose Gomez up on the mount and you know this one is taking the class drop and going from Turf to dirt interestingly enough over the last uh five years Pletcher has been 23% Turf to dirt for all maidens and 28% Turf to dirt on the class drop for Maiden special weight to Maiden claimers so uh you know clearly one that has the ability to kind of uh you know this sort of move is not irregular for Pletcher uh and he's had some success and again this one has been competitive at the maiden special weight level on the turf and so now like I said switching over you know showed a little bit better speed the last time out I hope some of that translates over uh to this final race because again you're going to need to show a little bit more speed you don't want to get trapped too far back I feel like coming out of that shoot so uh that's where my top pick was my value play the number six Holton uh at six to one for Bill m one that took the class drop last time out to a maiden 75 but did so over a sloppy still track and willing to give this one a second chance over a dry or fast track and actually ran pretty well in a couple of Maiden special weight races over a dry track uh back last year as a two-year-old so again just willing to give this one another opportunity uh maybe just didn't like the wet conditions that day and never really kind of got underway and was a little bit more one paac so uh going to take a shot like I said with that one at six to1 but you went to the other Linda as your final selection for the day as a value play uh which was always be smart the number seven horse yeah I'm all L to rice in the last race um I think if lind's going to win a race on trafford's day it would be fitting for her to win the last race of the day that's that's her kind of Mo um and uh yeah always be smart second off the claim uh for this bar I actually thought he ran pretty well first off the claim last time the same race that um holton's exiting I believe and um I thought that the rail so there was that extreme rail bias in August 1 and I thought the rail was starting to get good at the end of the July 31st card and always be smart was just outside every step of the way um and he's a horse that has had more chances than some others but he's run well on a number of occasions and I think if there is any Pace in this race I'll be running on at the end well David we did it 14 races we got through all of them uh I owe you a beer when I see you next time for sure for for going an hour and a half and so I really appreciate it uh it's GNA be a great day I appreciate you coming on sharing your insights uh let the folks know what all you have going on where they can find all of your content and all the good stuff oh it's just fun doing it with you first of all just want to say it's a card that really merits the conversation because there's so much great stuff to to look forward to on Saturday yep I'll have my uh picks up on n.com n.com timeformus you can find all of my picks for the card also on drf.com I'll have you know write ups there I do the betting strategies with Mike beer every Saturday of the Saratoga meet so you can find that information about that or you know purchase it in a PP package on drf.com where we'll give out piics and um our plays and our analysis of the entire card so um also got some videos up on the drf YouTube channel if you want to find some of my analysis there awesome always appreciate your Insight David really do and thank you so much again for joining me and thank you all for watching this episode of capping the card make sure to press that like button and listen if you're still watching after 97 minutes come on you got to subscribe to the N bets YouTube channel so listen thank you so much for David aragona my name is Matthew to sanis wish you a great and prosperous day at the races and reminding you friends it's now post time