Trump gets *GREAT* news on post debate polls, leads swing states

well ladies and gentlemen we are getting more polling data post debate and my overall summary on it it really doesn't seem like there's much of a change I guess that really wasn't too surprising I think we'll still wait till we get more polls there were a few very liberal pollsters that came out with national polls that had Harris up by five but other than that it does seem like Ras m is still polling basically the same as what they've been they had another poll last night came out that had Trump plus six that's a daily poll that they do basically every day but other than that you've got States Michigan now looks like just a pure swing state there were a few weeks there it looked like Cala was leading by maybe two or three points but now Trump's been up by one or two in a few different polls so really nothing crazy happening the voter registration in pretty much every state that we just got for August was extremely encouraging for Republicans they're up again and you can see uh Democratic Edge over GOP and voter registration I guess this was CNN talking about Taylor Swift's impact getting young girls to vote liberal you can see Pennsylvania and North Carolina both North Carolina I haven't really talked about North Carolina in terms of the voter registration but even since September of 2020 this is a state that Trump won in 2016 and 2020 in 2020 it was only by 1.3 points so it was close but but looking at 2024 now I mean that is a huge Republican increase in a state that again Trump won in 2020 you're talking about an increase of almost 300K in terms of a voter registration the idea that then he would then lose that state it just seems so surprising these are thin margins but still in voter registration it's not gospel but it is something to look at in Pennsylvania the same way I mean we've seen it really from 2016 where Dems had a huge advantage of almost a million it's dwindled down all the way to 149k or 169k excuse me and that's also something to where Trump losing Pennsylvania by an extremely small amount like a point now he's gained around 400k in terms of the voter registration the the these are very encouraging numbers for Trump pretty much everywhere but especially States like this also Arizona has really good voter registration numbers as well in terms of improving post debate poll so this is another post debate poll you can see the change this is where the change would be there's basically no change versus August 29th so that's a pretty wide swath in terms of a sample going from August 29th to basically two weeks later uh that's a poll that's been updated that has uh I guess the bll was done on the 12th till the day after the debate and there was literally no change so and that's even with you would think there'd be maybe some bias instant reaction to the debate even with that we're not seeing it so we're seeing basically no effect of the debate having I know Trump said that he's won the debate he shouldn't have to do another debate certainly I think there's some things to talk about in terms of that I've given my opinion on it I mean Trump's bent over backwards twice now that's two debates this election cycle that's been on liberal networks and CNN I'll give them credit they did do a good job I had originally thought that it was just because of the muted mics but no I mean we saw with ABC and how horribly biased it was you've got to give CNN credit for not being that bias but Trump is thinking listen if I was Trump I would give an ultimatum I would say I'm doing a Fox News debate or I'm not doing anything at all that was ridiculous what happened to me and how bias it was and how they only fact checked me but not her and made almost everything slanted negatively against Trump so I would say I'll do another debate if it's on Fox news but it looks like Trump doesn't even want to do that I don't think she wants to debate on Fox News he had offered three different debates with the first one being on Fox news on the 4th of September and she denied and that's why he had to do his town hall so this idea that oh he's just Running Scared from her well then why did he offer three debates and she only accepted one and one of the you know the the dates passed for the first debate and Trump showed up for it and she wasn't there so how is he running scared from that makes no sense uh but that's just uh kind of the situation there and there it is Trump has a six-point lead in the latest Russ M poll and yeah they uh they updated pretty much every day you can see some of the differences 0 five 06 so it definitely fluctuates but the 5-day moving average is sitting I think Trump right around plus three just looking at this looks like Harris is around 45 and a half Trump looks to be around 48 and a half if I had to just ballpark estimate it maybe two and a half three-point advantage in terms of the five-day rolling average if Trump has that advantage in terms of just popular vote I I think it'd be it would be shocker if he lost the election these polls right now if we went into election night with where we are right now I would have a lot of confidence in Donald Trump winning this election that's for sure and it seems like we're kind of going through the motions now like we had Harris have this huge run up to the point where she was taking the betting lead by like 10% then Trump took it now it's back to being tied as long as we kind of hover around here based on the polling errors we're used to and also just in general Trump be being able to lose the popular vote by a point two points three points and still winning the election you have to like the idea of oh it's anyone's game it's 50/50 when really you look at the the in-depth numbers also the approval rating where Harris and Trump are very close there are some polls that have Harris higher but the general sentiment is they're pretty close closer than Trump and Biden were closer than Trump and Hillary were there are a lot of good numbers that points towards a trump Victory and that's not even taking into account what we talked about earlier a few minutes ago with the voter registration being insanely positive basically in every swing state but especially Pennsylvania which is the most important state because it's the purest of Swing states that has the most electoral votes and you also do have a state like Arizona that the also North Carolina with its 16 electoral votes it's going to be very important as well Mitchell resarch here another poll you can see this is from Mitchell research this is from uh Mitchell research this is the poll in Michigan uh so this poll has it tied full ballot I I guess they still include RFK in this one obviously I I don't think RFK is going to be on the Michigan ballot he's going to be on one of the ballots but it's not Michigan and even in this look at this this they said that in terms of who won the debate they have Harris winning the debate 56% Trump at 29 and even that in the same exact poll it still has Trump tied in a state where we've seen the past few weeks he's he's been kind of down by two or three points so even in this scenario where they pull people on the debate they say Harris won they still kind of have Trump performing W with what he's normally done or even better even with the same pollster saying that Harris won the debate according to the people that were pulled it just goes to show you you know the debates it seems like at least this debate had a very little impact and I know people were expecting there to be a big impact on the debates because they we were a little bit spoiled with what happened with Biden to where the debate ruined his candidacy but that was kind of a special situation where Biden was ridiculously old and he could barely talk and the debate was kind of the nail in the coffin although honestly I really shouldn't say that because going into the debate there was really zero narrative I know it's hard to believe but there really was Zero Narrative of Biden being removed the debate was just so bad they did a 180 and that's when they decided to really put pressure on Biden it took about a month but they got him out of the reelection campaign so that just goes to show you even in a poll where it says Harris won by like 30 points which I think is absurd although I guess if you're you know pulling people and they say well Harris barely wins that's technically a vote for her but um even if you want to say she barely wins that's still good numbers in Michigan for Trump considering Michigan normally outperforms polls in Michigan by about a point and a half to two points 48 to 48 going into election night is something I would certainly take you'd want Trump to be up by a few for sure but without partisan we are at this point it's it's a little bit too much to ask you know it's going to be a very very close with all these these polls I would say in terms of the election and then just taking a look at this updated forecast it's they've got Harris at 50 Trump at 49% chance to win you can see the margin that Trump has cut down into basically making it almost tied and there's really not much changing when it comes to any of this stuff I think again the debate really doesn't seem like it's having much of an effect when it comes to the polls I guess we'll wait a few more days to update them even though there were again those two liberal polls that came out that had Harris up by five but either way it does seem like at this point I would pretty I would disagree with this popular vote margin they've got Harris up by almost two I would imagine they're factoring in those polls when it comes to that I I think Harris in terms of popular vote right now is probably up by like 1.2 1.3 if I had to guess I think is probably going to be within a point and even if it was this margin where it's like 1.8 it looks like I would still give Trump a a pretty pretty high chance to win the election if he loses the popular vote by 1.8 she can still win it but just the way the votes go and and and with how it is um you would expect Trump who who lost I think by like 2.2 to Hillary and still easily won the popular vote to the point where he got over 300 electoral votes I think right now 306 to 312 is probably pretty realistic for Trump looking at these states uh p Pennsylvania I would say is leaning Trump based off all the internal stuff Michigan I think is a pure tossup Wisconsin I think you could argue as the polls in Wisconsin are kind of similar to Michigan but Wisconsin polls tend to be way more inaccurate when they uh they grade Trump it's been like five or six points in terms of if you if you take the average of how off they were in 2020 and 2016 and average it out it's like six points they were they underestimated Trump so that's pretty crazy if they have Trump down by two you can't rely on an underestimation of six points again but it is reasonable to say they're probably going to underestimate him I mean let's be honest if it's back-to-back times in the average is underestimating him by six if he's going into the election night down by two you'd have to think he'd at least win that state by one or more that would just be an underestimation of three so as long as the Wisconsin's pull stay close maybe they they updated their methodology maybe they can pull Trump supporters better but based on Trump's two elections that's a state that Trump uh has not pulled well in at all relative to how he actually performed Nevada and Arizona looks like they've got Iona leading more towards Trump than Nevada and yeah that's something that I've seen where it looks like Arizona might go to Trump by a few points Nevada is going to be a lot closer maybe decided within a point or two points at that but they say the odds of an upset are like flipping a coin well yes it is a very close election according to the polls this is not a situation like where it was with Biden but even the stuff with where Harris I mean look at this Harris was up by in terms of this by about 12 points and Trump's already made all of that up because she had that massive run where she was just uh just the amount of fake hype was absurd and it's kind of worn off and now we're kind of looking at almost a tied situation here even post debate with the debate having little impact and it looks like there's not going to be another debate at least Trump doesn't want to do one so we're left with the VP debate which is happening on the 1 of October I really wish the VP debate was like next week I think it would be better to just get the VP debate done rather than wait until early October but either way it's going to be October 1st between Vance and Waltz and people expect Vance to win Vance is in another League than Waltz when it comes to intellect the problem is they're going to people are going to feel bad for Waltz they're going to say oh you know he's just he's just a small town dead it's all right you know he tried his best but the VP debate in general nobody's gonna watch it let's be honest I mean people that are watching these videos will probably watch it but the Casual people it's going to get like a a tenth of the amount of viewership that the Harris versus Trump debate had I can I mean that's just the way it is with the VP debates but either way guys that is going to do it for this video make sure you follow me on link to that's always in the description