Hawaii Tropical Storm Update! Aug 23, 2024

hey everybody Michael Snider Hawaii weather watch today is August 23rd and right now we're looking at the mid-level water vapor Loop we now have tropical storm hon out here it is in the Central Pacific Hurricane Center area of forecast and it's likely to pass just south of the Big Island here but it does not need to make a direct impact on the big island to bring some big impacts with it you can also see hurricane Gilma well off to the east air so let's dive into those details here starting with the tropical storm watch that is up for the big island and you can see the official for cast tropical storm again just passing south of the Hawaiian islands and maybe becoming a hurricane here as it passes south of Kaw we'll see that we'll look at some of the models here in a moment taking a look at the Honolulu National Weather Service forecast office tropical storm watch again for the big island and surrounding Waters tropical storm warning for all surrounding Waters here as you can see yeah so we got some interesting stuff rolling in here we also have a flood watch here for the big island Saturday afternoon through Monday evening here some pretty extreme precipitation about should be impacting much of the island and we also have the US Air Force hurricane hunter on its way to sample H it's going to give us some valuable information and we'll get a better forecast built out of this probably as we go through the day we get some new data for for you on that now taking a look at precipitable Water percent of normal this kind of shows you what kind of impacts you can expect or just that you can expect impacts away from the center I should say as you can see it makes a close pass but again spreading huge amounts of moisture back up across the Hawaiian islands and very complex interaction with just huge terrain features across the Big Island because caused some pretty extensive flooding and some very strong winds and you can kind of see in the European system makes a little bit of a jog to the Northwest more on that here in a moment you can also see hurricane Gilma there probably going to be weakening and then eventually maybe giving a little bit of a surge to moisture the Hawai Islands but again let's stick to what's at hand here definitely the tropical storm Hony as it passes to the South is the big story taking a look at Hony is right about here and you can see a wind shear that is at least a semi-permanent feature here across some of the Hawaiian islands and it can save Hawaii from getting impacted by some hurricane sometimes but this thing largely stays um as far as windsh is concerned it stays kind of wind share free until it gets right up towards the islands there then it get starts to get impacted a bit here so you know it may be too late and the water is a bit warmer once you start to get south of the Hawaiian Islands right in here so again this might flare up and the windsh could be weakening it still kind of a complex forecast that we are dealing with right now taking a look at the sea surface temperatures goes all the way from July into August you can kind of see the circulation the Pacific Ocean goes from this way and it drops down out the Northwest across the West Coast North America and you can see that cooler water spill out towards the Hawaiian island so when the systems approach from the East they're not dealing with that warm water here so they they tend to struggle a bit the real threat to the Hawaiian islands is when they remain a bit South and then turn north so they stay over that warmer water then turn north and they can really impact the Hawaii islands especially like aniki did in 19 1992 so if we take a look at the infrared satellite imagery at least the simulated upcoming here you can see the system making its way towards the Hawaiian Islands there and you see it develops a little bit of an eye even as it passes south of the Big Island Andro encounters some warmer water there but you can also see the wind share working on the system here also it's kind of a cat Mouse game kind of a complex forecast sometimes these systems can really get ripped apart and weaken quite dramatically as they do approach the Hawaiian island we'll be watching that one that would be the best case scenario for the Islands cuz uh even not making a direct impact this is probably going to have big impacts if it does make its way south of the islands still as a tropical storm and this is in one way maximum individual wave heights you can see big slug of wave action here rolling in here as we go through the day Saturday and continuing on in through Monday before H moves off to the uh the West there and then you can see a Gilma maybe bringing a little bit of a bump here but not too big of a deal with that one now closer look here you get the significant wave height direction of the swell as well in the wave action and you can see this again a pretty close pass bringing some increased wave action across much of the Hawaiian Islands a you really got to be careful if you're a mariner out on the boats there as you go through you know really through Friday night on and through Saturday and then we're continuing on through Sunday and things start to get back towards normal as you head on in towards Monday night and then eventually Tuesday morning now taking a look at the GFS model guidance pretty good model guidance really between the GFS the European and the Canadian showing the system mainly staying south of the Hawaiian Islands here's the European this is yesterday afternoons and this is the Canadian again really good model agre with the track of the storm coming up uh the intensity is a little bit different here you can see a lot of the models have it remaining as a tropical storm but if you do have it moving into category one that's not out of the realm of possibility now this is taking a look at the GFS I want to kind of show you here the system moving to the South here and again big winds ripping through some of the channels here some of the coastal Waters here are just going to be AB absolutely crazy here if this storm remains a tropical storm or even a hurricane as it passes the wine Islands to the South as you can see there just want to draw attention to that other islands are at risk it's not just the Big Island taking a look at accumulated Max 10 meter wind gust this is the European and it kind of shows you the path of this storm let me just back this up a little bit here and we'll replay through this go back and forth there but this is not a high resolution model either it does show the track of the storm though potentially bring in some tropical storm Forest winds to portions of the big island and again Gusty winds across many of the islands here you see some of these gusts up towards 47 mph maybe even a little higher for some of aahu mikai e layi out there and Maui and through the channels it's going to be kind of crazy here as well and I'll show you another model that shows what's more likely to happen across some of the big Islands because again the European probably not picking up on the extent of some of the Winds across some of the higher Islands including some of the Saddle road now taking a look at the HFS this is a bit higher resolution this is 10 meter wind gust so as this passes the Big Island look at some of these winds across the higher terrain again could be includ including some portions of the Saddle road here and again South Point these are some lower elevations down here showing some gust up over 70 milph and if we continue to scroll through you can see some actually pretty strong winds look at West Maui was that calua there 52 miles hour and some strong winds across some of the South Shore of Maui as well so yeah very interesting stuff here it could be pretty Dynamic we'll see how this goes now if we take a look at the H WR wrf this is a high resolution look at the composite reflectivity so there you see the big island coming here comes the storm and you can see on the North side you got some pretty potent showers here and of course you're going to be doing some serious lifting there as it moves up the higher terrain of the Big Island huge precipitation amounts likely incoming especially if this thing remains a well organized tropical storm or hurricane as it passes off to the South but you see the really torrential nasty stuff looks like it's just gonna hang out South the South Point there so we have to watch this closely you know pretty pretty crazy looking there now looking at the European this is total precipitation in inches and again this is not a high resolution model so you'll clearly see the slug of moisture move in here and look at some of these totals for the big island you could be looking at 10 12 plus inches or even higher for some individual locations halaka and Maui getting some big amounts and some of the windward sides of aahu mikai and Kawai also getting big amounts as we move through the 90 hour time frame here this would be about Monday afternoon as you can see the center of the storm moving off to to the West there this is the official tropical storm wind speed probability so just clipping South Point you're looking at what it's talking about maybe 40 to 60% there but you can see you could get some of these higher gusts across the rest of the island chain as well and this is from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center there so if you need to check back on a daily basis or on a six- hourly basis they put out new updates every six hours here and you can visit the discussion here you can check out the wind speed probabilities the arrival time of winds as well as you can see Saturday a.m. versus Saturday p.m. here and for kawhai Sunday a.m. so yeah we'll be watching this closely and if things continue to look crazy um I may do another video tomorrow or the following day actually tomorrow is Saturday so I probably will put one out tomorrow if this looks like it's going to remain a tropical storm as it passes close to South Point I will do another video tomorrow because we have a lot of people here across Pacific Northwest and the state of California that fly out to the Hawaiian Islands I have family that lives out there across the Hawaiian Islands I have a lot of friends I used to work at Hawaiian Airlines and Island air out there so I'm uh pretty well versed on these tropical storms here and on that some of I've seen some of these systems just get absolutely ripped apart and demolished really quickly here so maybe that will be the case but of course we did have a tropical storm hit the Big Island a few years ago and these can have big impacts across the islands even well away from the center of the system so anyway I hope you guys are liking these videos I will do my normal briefings tomorrow and most likely another Hawaii special weather watch for tomorrow morning also because that'll be just on know tropical storm will be much closer to the W Islands in 24 hours so anyway hope you guys liking these videos click like And subscribe we'll do this all again tomorrow and I will talk to you guys then