Why Vegas has it Wrong with UGA Football vs. Clemson

I think Vegas is wrong I think that the spread for the Georgia Clemson game is too low I don't think that Georg is favored by enough points FanDuel and a lot of other places have it has Georgia as a 13 and a half Point favor it's about a two touchdown favorite over the Clemson Tigers to open the season in Mercedes-Benz Stadium we're just a few days away from that guys I mean on Saturday it's going to be one of the first games you watch right we got some good games Thursday but back to the point I don't think that I don't think that this line is big enough uh I think that closer to 20 is probably a little bit more of what it should be maybe 18 and 1/2 19 and 1/2 I think that that would be a more realistic line for what this game is set at okay that's my big take that's my I don't know that's my hot take right so let that soak in for a second and then think about it and think about if I'm really wrong I don't I don't think I'm wrong why is Georgia only a 13 and a half Point favorite over Clemson it's a Georgia plays up right when Georgia is a 40s something Point favorite against a Ball State or 50 something Point favorite it's less likely that they're going to cover that line right what we know is that Georgia blows a lot of teams out Georgia struggles with some teams they did not cover the spread against Auburn last year or South Carolina those are games that they ended up struggling in this is a better Georgia football team in my opinion and I don't think that this Clemson football team is necessarily better I I can understand yes if Kade kumnick is a better quar qub back which you would think that age and time would equate to that then yes Clemson was going to be a little bit better but in terms of the rest of it they didn't add much they lost depth and what they added were freshman freshmen that are going to contribute probably especially a wide receiver guys that might contribute but they didn't get better over this offseason things stayed the same for Clemson and Clemson struggled in games that they shouldn't have struggled in last year what changes I mean seriously I just got to know what exactly happened in the off seon to make Clemson the 14th best team in the country are they the 14th best team in the country that I'm not arguing with as much but I'm talking about I think that this spread should be bigger I think Georgia will win by at least 20 points that's my take Ryan cury from dog post talking about Vegas the odds the odds for the Clemson Georgia game the over under is also 49 and a half so about 50 points um I don't you know I'm not as great with those more so the actual game and how things are going to be played out out but I probably take I probably take the over honestly points get points get scored in that Stadium uh make sure you're checking out our newsletter I've got that Linked In the description down below Matt Dean myself we're all pushing out a lot of content and plan on being better than we were last year being better than we were the year before that that's the goal it should be the goal in sports it's the goal here at Team dog post want to put out more content better content for you this off season I think we've already done it to start the year our season really starts at the beginning of August so we started cranking things up when August went out and I think that I think that this is going to be a good year for Georgia I think this is going to be a good year for dog post and the easiest way to follow along is with our newsletter that gives you a link to dog post every single day in your mailbox with all of the stories that you need to be aware of it's a great deal cuz it's free it's free it's the best way to stay up toate as a Georgia fan so getting into the nitty-gritties with the reasons look at last year and just so I I've got the numbers in my head but I'm going to bring it up just to make sure that I'm not getting anything wrong you go to last year I'm going tell you Georgia covered the spread in these games or didn't right yes there are examples Auburn in South Carolina I don't think that they covered the spread against Ball State I'm not sure that they covered the spread against UT Martin either that 48-7 when but what happens in the big games Georgia obliterated Kentucky 51-3 51 to 13 a team that Clemson beat by three points in the bowl game in their bowl game last year and I'll get to that in the minute um but more on my current Point Tennessee 38 to10 easily covers that spread they go up and they beat the crap out of Tennessee Old Miss 52- 17 I don't remember what the spread is on most of these games but I know for sure they covered it because Georgia is not being favored by more than 20 something points over Florida right 23 points over Florida 51-3 to Kentucky right that's over 30 points over 30 points against Old Miss almost 30 points on Tennesse in these big games against teams that Georgia should beat by at least a little bit of a margin they beat them by a wide margin and they play up right and it's shown in a lot of the Georgia sometimes plays down to its competition it happened in 2023 and they definitely played up against some of the better teams of last year I like to apply that model to this game and you think about it two years ago as well what happened in the opener I remember making this video a couple years ago a couple offseasons ago while we're in the season and I'm making a repeat video with this it was 17 points 16 and 1 12 points was the spread in the Oregon Clemson or in the Oregon Georgia game and all the signs pointed to a Georgia blowout a lot of people weren't listening to me what happened 49-3 first game as a head coach a program that's dealing with transfers right situation is not as drastic for Clemson they're not dealing with as much transition but I don't think it's a team that got better than last year when they struggled so hard in some of these games losing to Duke losing to Florida State in a in a way that they shouldn't have lost to Florida State they should have beat them struggling with a Kentucky team that you should be better than now I go back to that game you look at the comparison right obviously one's a neutral sight and one was a home uh night game for Georgia I believe it was at night against Kentucky so two different things Georgia has that little advant big Advantage there not little Advantage compared to neutral site but Kentucky flew up and down the field on Clemson when they needed to score and Clemson didn't always score in the moments needed to they end up winning that game by three points it was an exciting game uh I you know I took away more positives from Kentucky than I did against Clemson a Kentucky team that I think would be slightly improved this year but you take that Clemson team that hasn't changed that much right they just have had this off season and some freshman addition and you pit it up against a Georgia team who is the favorite to win at all the favorite to win the SEC and a 13 Half Point favor I think George is going to blow Clemson out what does a blowout mean also we got a has a blowout I just think George is going to win by 20 plus points and that's not a close game among ranked teams that's a dominant game among ranked teams and that's what I think happens here for Georgia 20 plus points win so I think that this spread should be a few more point it's just my my take I think that this line is just not big enough and I think that V Vegas has it wrong maybe I'll be coming on here next week after Georgia struggled against Clemson and I'll be wrong and I will admit when I'm wrong I'll do a whole apology video if that's what you guys want but this is my tick and that's what I'm talking about George got better in this off season George got better running back maybe that particular thing will not be featured against Clemson still up in the air about etn I'm recording this on Monday night this will be going out on Wednesday so at this point of me recording etn hasn't been given the yes or no about playing publicly I think it's a no based off the way Kirby's answering I think the etm will be suspended but that's what I think the one thing that Georgia won't be improved on is you know obviously I don't think that they have an improved secondary but I do think it's a secondary that can hang with Clemson's offense I think the front Seven's a little bit better for Georgia I think that as a whole the receiver room's a little bit better think the offensive Line's really good and I think Carson Beck definitely gets better after year two and you can make that same statement about Kate kumnick well hey it's year two for Kate kumnick as well why you know as a starter why can't he improve well yes I do think he can improve but I think that Georgia made bigger improvements over the the off season they added players on defense that are going to contribute they added players on offense that are going to contribute I made a video yesterday about how Clemson doesn't attack the transfer portal that is one of the reasons why I don't think this game is going to be very close what's another reason why this spread should be bigger well there are more Georgia fans in Atlanta than Clemson it will be a mostly Georgia crowd as close as you can get a neutral sight to a home environment is what is going to happen insiders are saying that Clemson's real pumped up for the this game that they're going to bring out all the stops against Georgia I don't think that that's not true I do think that the confidence is high in Clemson and it should be davo is one of the best coaches in college football I just think that the model for him is getting a little bit outdated and the Georgia model is what's not outdated George's got the better Coach right now it's Kirby they've got the better roster they're going to have the home field advantage and when you look at the comparison of teams they played last year Georgia obliterated a team that Clemson barely beat barely beat I don't think this roster is better I think this Clemson roster is about the same as it was last year it's just a matter of ke players improve even if Kade kumnick is a because drastically better unlikely right just for any player Carson Beck's not going to be drastically better he might be a little bit better and it's going to lead to better stats and maybe Heisman finals and all that but with Kate kumnick I think it has to be a drastic step up he's just not as good as they thought he was coming out of high school not as good as I thought I was a big Cade Club Nick guy thought this guy was maybe the next great Clemson player I thought Clemson was going to be in the mix a little bit more than it has been the last couple years but so far I've been wrong about that and Clemson has been wrong about that if they continue to be wrong about that they're going to lose games to Georgia and to Alabama and to maybe a Flor State and other schools that they should they or at least they think they're going to be compete they're going to be more competitive in is a better way to put it think the line's too small what do you think links down below I think the dogs went by 20 plus