Earnings will support markets despite normal volatility, says Bernstein's Dan Suzuki

Published: Aug 18, 2024 Duration: 00:04:21 Category: News & Politics

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We have our legs back ARE PRETTY HIGH. HOW MUCH MORE CAN WE SQUEEZE OUT OF IT? >> GOOD SETUP. THANKS. MIKE SANTOLI. LET'S TALK ABOUT WHERE STOCKS GO FROM HERE. DAN IS WITH US, RICHARD BERNSTEIN ADVISER'S DEPUTY CIO. GOOD TO SEE YOU. >> THANKS. GOOD TO SEE YOU TOO. >> YOU FEEL LIKE WE HAVE OUR LEGS BACK OR NOT? >> I DO THINK WE HAVE OUR LEGS BACK TO SOME EXTENT. I MEAN I THINK THAT WE DO HAVE TO RECOGNIZE THAT THERE HAS BEEN SOME SOFTNESS IN SOME OF THE ECONOMIC DATA RECENTLY, BUT THE PROBLEM WITH THE MARKETS IS, IT'S A SHOOT FIRST, ASK QUESTIONS LATER MARKET. SO THE MARKET SAYS TO OVERREACT, AND SOME OF THE PLAYERS IN THE MARKET TEND TO OVEREXACERBATE SOME OF THESE MOVES. THE REALITY IS THE DATA IS COMING IN A LITTLE SOFT, BUT AT THE SAME TIME, WE ALSO HAVE TO STEP BACK AND RECOGNIZE THAT THE FUNDAMENTAL DRIVER OF MARKETS IS EARNINGS AND EARNINGS GROWTH IS NOT ONLY ACCELERATING MORE IMPORTANTLY IT'S BROADENING OUT BY SECTOR, BY SIZE, AND GLOBALLY Q2 beats AND I THINK THAT'S A PRETTY GOOD SUPPORT FOR THE MARKETS OUTSIDE OF THE NORMAL TYPE OF VOLATILITY THAT WE'VE JUST SEEN. >> RIGHT. WOULD YOU CHARACTERIZE THE Q2 BEATS AS INTERESTING OR MATERIAL AND DO YOU THINK THAT SOME OF THESE REVISIONS COMING IN A LITTLE SHALLOWER THAN WE'RE USED TO IS A GOOD SIGN? >> YEAH. I ALWAYS THINK IT'S A GOOD SIGN. I THINK THAT WHEN YOU SET THE BAR LOW, PARTICULARLY FOR SOME AREAS OF THE MARKET WHERE, YOU KNOW, IT'S HARD TO IMAGINE THE BAR GETTING ANY LOWER, I THINK YOU'RE REALLY SETTING UP FOR SOME POSITIVE SURPRISES, ESPECIALLY WITH THIS SORT OF NEGATIVE NARRATIVE AROUND GROWTH. IN TERMS OF SORT OF THE EARNINGS SEASON, I THINK WHAT'S ENCOURAGING IS THAT YOU ARE SEEING THE NUMBER OF COMPANIES, THE PERCENTAGE OF COMPANIES, THAT'S -- THAT ARE MISSING ESTIMATES, YOU KNOW, REMEMBER COMPANIES -- NO ONE MANAGES AROUND MISSING ESTIMATES. IF THEY MISS ESTIMATES SOMETHING HAS GONE UNFORESEEABLE WRONG. THE PERCENTAGE OF COMPANIES YOUR SEEING THAT HAS GONE DOWN DESPITE WHAT PEOPLE CALL LACKLUSTER EARNINGS SEASON. Volatility I THINK THAT'S AN ENCOURAGING SIGN AND THIS GROWTH STORY, ISN'T FALLING OFF A CLIFF, PART OF THE WORRY I THINK THE MARKETS HAVE. >> ONE THING WE WERE TALKING WITH MIKE SANTOLI ABOUT, WAS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF VOLATILITY. DO YOU EXPECT AUGUST 5th TO ESSENTIALLY BE KIND OF THE SHORT-TERM LOWS HERE, OR DO YOU THINK THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL DRAW DOWNS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR? >> YEAH. YOU KNOW, LESLIE, I DON'T KNOW IN TERMS OF WHAT THE VOLATILITY PICTURE IS GOING TO LOOK LIKE. I THINK IT'S REASONABLE TO EXPECT THAT VOLATILITY IS GOING TO BE -- COME IN FITS AN STARTS AND BE ELEVATED THIS YEAR. THAT'S NORMAL FOR AN ELECTION YEAR AND NORMAL FOR A PERIOD WHERE BIG CHUNKS OF THE MARKET ARE SEEING SLOWING EARNINGS DYNAMICS. THAT'S NORMAL FOR A YEAR WHERE, YOU KNOW, THERE'S A LOT OF GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS. I THINK WHEN YOU LOOK PAST ALL THAT SHORT-TERM VOLATILITY, I DON'T THINK THERE'S A REAL REASON TO BE WORRIED ABOUT IMMINENT COLLAPSE. WE HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THESE LEADING INDICATORS THAT ARE, YOU KNOW, POTENTIALLY, YOU KNOW, STARTING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF WEAKNESS. BUT I THINK EVEN IN THE SCENARIO WHERE THOSE INDICATORS ARE INDICATING SOME SORT OF RECESSION IN THE FUTURE, WE HAVE TO REMEMBER THAT OUTSIDE OF THESE SHOCKS, THESE EXOGENOUS SHOCKS, RECESSIONS TAKE TIME, AND IT FEELS LIKE DEATH BY A THOUSAND CUTS. THE PEOPLE THAT EXPECT A Consumer health RECESSION IS GOING TO START TOMORROW OR THREE MONTHS FROM NOW, I THINK THAT'S A BIT TOO EARLY. IN THE MEANTIME, THERE'S A LOT OF FUNDAMENTAL EARNINGS SPUPPOR HERE. >> THERE WAS A NOTE OVER THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT BASICALLY THE PILARS THAT DICTATE CONSUMER HEALTH, RIGHT, EMPLOYMENT, WEALTH, AND CREDIT. AND I WONDER OF THE THREE, WHICH WOULD YOU PICK TO WORRY ABOUT FIRST? >> WELL, I THINK THEY'RE ALL SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKNESS, CARL, AND I THINK THAT'S, YOU KNOW, PART OF THAT IS REALLY COMING OFF OF THESE, YOU KNOW, GANG BUSTER LEVELS THAT WE SAW POST-PANDEMIC, RIGHT. SOME OF THAT, MAYBE TWO-THIRDS OF THAT STORY OF SLOWNESS IS REALLY A STORY OF NORMALIZATION OFF UNSUSTAINABLE LEVELS. I WOULD SAY THAT WE'VE GONE BEYOND THAT AND WAGE GROWTH AND JOBS GROWTH, HOURS WORKED, ALL THOSE AREAS THAT ARE DRIVE TOTAL WEALTH AND SPEND POWERING ARE COMING DOWN. BUT WE'RE STILL PRETTY HEALTHY LEVELS AND I DON'T THINK THERE'S ANY REASON WHEN YOU COMBINE THAT WITH BALANCE SHEETS AND CONFIDENCE TO EXPECT THAT'S GOING TO COLLAPSE, YOU KNOW, IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. >> RIGHT. WE'LL SEE WHAT -- HOW CERTAINLY THE FE

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