What is FAMU's Ceiling & Floor in 2024? Senior Bowl Watchlist Features 11 HBCU Players

we're getting closer and closer to kickoff it's literally 2 days away by the time you hear this let's look at famu's ceiling floor and Gerald Thomas's prediction for what he thinks they'll actually be oh yeah it's locked on HBCU play my music you are locked on HBCU your daily podcast covering HBCU Sports part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day what's going on family welcome back to another episode of the locked on HBC pod cast your number one daily OneStop shop for everything HBCU Athletics Monday through Friday part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day and I of course am Daren gray aka the mouth of the South Texas Southern Alum and former TSU heral sports editor and current contributing writer at USA today's Saints wire thank you for going on this journey with me mega locked on HBCU your first listen of the day every day and remember just because the mic cuts off does not mean that the journey is over just means it's time to follow me on Twitter South exclusives starts with an S and ends with an s today's episode is brought to you by ultimate GM ultimate college football head coach is a brand new mobile game that is completely free has no ads and is 100% playable offline use the promo locked on CFB all caps inside the game store to receive a free boost to your program begin your coaching Legacy today we'll wrap up today's episode with the look at North Folk State yes one half of the meak swack challenge is the pressure on Dawson odms it's a completely different side of this of this conversation that we had I think maybe a week week and a half ago prior to that we'll take a look at um the HBCU players on the Senior Bowl watch list there are 11 of them and eight of them come from Gerald huggin' top 10 Prospect list I told you my guy knows what he's talking about but we kick it off with FAMU ceiling their floor and the prediction of what they will actually be via Gerald Thomas right now did y'all hear the power on the play my music in the intro did you hear the power behind the play my music in the intro I felt it I Ain hear it obviously because you know I'm talking to you right now but like I heard it I felt it football season is back you bring out a different side of me but Gerald Thomas he does phenomenal work with the Tallahassee Democrat I mean absolutely phenomenal we've had him on the show one time before um when I tell you this guy is so knowledgeable such such an inside guy for FAMU and if you want an expert on it that's the person that I would point you to he does phenomenal work uh I want to use his article as a basis for this segment because I think it's really interesting with him being such an Insider with him having such a close relation and proximity to the school and to the program the the the exercise of floor versus ceiling in then the middle of what we think they'll actually be is fascinating to me I really do think that it's interesting so let's get into what his prediction for FAMU is going to be he predicts that FAMU goes 9 and three this year with the entire world when the entire black college football world looking at FAMU a nine and3 season will be absolutely exceptional if FAMU can find a way to go nine and three in this upcoming season I would consider that a win what's interesting to me is the way that they got to 9 and three the way that the Rattlers got to nine and three in Gerald's in Gerald's not Gerald's but in Gerald's predictions is they lose to Jackson State it's the only swack game that they lose and it's the only FCS game that they lose now that's very interesting I think that saying first off saying Gerald and it not being Huggins really really weird as much as we referenced G on the show but uh GT GT GT let's try it um but when you see how GT thinks that this is going to go you're looking at losing to Miami and Troy the FBS opponents on the schedule you're not losing to anyone else other than Jackson State now where it gets tricky is nine and three will be a great record for them no matter what but is it good enough to make the swack Championship if you lose to Jackson State that'll be interesting because now they have to lose two times Jackson State now has to lose to two other people in this conference and if they don't you'll be in a situation you were in in 2021 and 2022 where you were the second best team you just couldn't beat Jackson State that would be just the idea of them losing to the Tigers and then having to sit around and wonder what else is gonna happen because Jackson State could easily lose two games that could easily happen right like I don't think that's unrealistic so if I was fam you though and I and they say hey you're gonna lose to Miami and Troy you'd be like okay whatever I get it um you're also going to lose a SWAT game this is not the one you want to pick this or Alabama State now obviously we're giving GT's uh breakdown but this is my show so I have to give you something else and attach I have to give you my side of it how I feel about it uh otherwise you can just go read his article which you should still do because I'm not going to give you every single detail love it um I would lose to somebody like py it's not a home game they're on the west so you really it's not it's just not as much of a uh fight now you look at the best case scenario it's not hard to imagine what the best case scenario is if the if the prediction is you only lose one game in the swack the best best case scenario is you lose no games in a swack you still do lose to Miami and Troy that is still in his best case scenario is that you're unable to uh you're unable to win a power five game or a FBS game I should say um so this one's simple I whatever we can push that one to the side now you look at the worst case scenario the worst case is when it gets interesting again if Jackson if losing to Jackson State and your prediction is the most intriguing thing on this article I think who he believes they could lose to is a very close second who he believes they could they could lose to is Alabama State Jackson State and Southern what he says is the best case scenar excuse me the worst case scenario is going eight and4 on the season and going 6-2 in conference play so you still have the Miami and Troy lost there's no world in which gtc's I'm just gonna say Gerald Thomas GT doesn't feel right there's no world in which Gerald Thomas sees you losing to a Mak opponent you open up with Northfolk State and South Carolina state he does not think that FAMU loses these games at all there's only three games that are really In Contention you're losing to Miami and Troy period you're beating the Mak games Mak teams period now it's between Alabama State Southern and Jackson State on are you able to come down with those games and in the worst case he believes that you lose two of the three he thinks the best case is that or excuse me the most likely case is that you lose to Alabama State and Jackson State I'm here to tell you that's the last thing that you should ever want to happen as a FAMU fan if you're looking at the swack East to me the swack East is a three- team Race until somebody else proves that they deserve to be in this conversation it is Jackson State FAMU in Alabama state if any of those three lose to the other two you're gone if any of those three beat the other two that's the champ and I know it sounds so simple but if we're speaking about the best case and worst case scenarios and the worst cases that you lose two games and we're thinking that in this worst case scenario the most likely way to get here the most likely route to the worst case is to lose to Bama State and to lose to Jackson State I think you can wrap up the idea of winning the swack swack East I think that's done right so the worst case is that you're still a pretty good team you're just not a swack East Champion but the when you're just looking at how he looks at him between one to two Lo no to two losses zero to two loss I should say zero best case one most likely uh two worst case that's a really good season to me but they're standards um I'll tell you one of my takeaways is that this just feels like Jackson State from a year ago I try to erode that from my memory I try to because in a way I think it's too easy of a comparison I think it's just too easy of a comparison but at the same time some things don't have to be difficult some things don't have to be complex you lose a lot of the same pieces you lose a head or you lose pieces on your team you lose a head coach people are all looking to see what you're going to be after the last couple of years of really strong play arguably dominance on both sides I still think that FAMU was dominant they just didn't beat that one team but they were dominating people um it's just so many parallels and then when you get to the best case and worst case scenarios and most likely I would say that if you ask somebody from Jackson State's fan base or somebody who was writing about Jackson State you go ask somebody at Tiger talk go ask the 1400 Club I can guarantee you that this is kind of what it looked like best case scenario we don't miss a beat we go straight undefeated again through the conference worst case scenario we lose a couple of games most likely scenario somebody gets us you know what they probably would have pick FAMU funny enough they maybe not Pride wise but like that's probably the team that you appoint to to be honest it's just so many parallels and then I'll say this my second biggest takeaway is when looking at the schedule because the reason that Gerald Thomas believes that FAMU is most likely in his worst case scenario to lose to Alabama State and to lose to Jackson state is because those are both Road games one of my biggest takeaways is FAMU has a phenomenal HomeField Advantage they do not lose on their home turf that just doesn't happen but unfortunately for them they have to face Alabama State and Jackson State away from them home away from their home turf so as good as the HomeField Advantage is for FAMU arguably one of their biggest advantages is taken away in the two biggest games of the Season you have to go to brag you got to go to Montgomery like you gotta go to these stadiums and they don't come to you so that'll be very interesting I think that the battle for the top of the swack East is going to be just as entertaining as the battle for the swack West but I could argue that the swack East is going to have the better team I really do I think that FAMU is going to be a solid team I think that Alabama state is going to be really good and I think that Jackson State's going to be a really solid team too I can't I can't wait obviously we know where I'm favored it I'm kind of leaning to that way um but who knows after this game here maybe y'all feel differently about FAMU I'll say this give me about two to three weeks with FAMU once we get into the conference season I may feel differently because literally all I'm waiting on is for you to show me something I just need to see something I need to get something that I can digest and once I'm able to digest it then I'll be able to say what I think about the team but as of right now I'm just trusting in the recruiting ability I'm the type of guy I need to see it on film I need to see it on tape before I just come out and be confident about it so we we'll see but those are my observations best case scenario FAMU goes undefeated in conference play worst case scenario FAMU drops a couple of conference play games and then the most likely scenario according to Gerald Thomas is that they lose one game but if it's the Jackson State o we got a real interesting situation speaking of interesting situation let's go through some of the players who made the Senior Bowl watch list we have a 11 HBCU athletes and a lot of them the lump sum the majority of them come from the HB or excuse me come from our HBCU top 10 Prospect ranks so let's break that down as we continue with locked on HBCU today's episode is brought to you by iata and listen you're going on summer vac M anytime you go anywhere you already know that you're going to purchase something ibata is perfect because it's here to give you cash back on all of your purchases did you know that the average ibata user gets $256 per year that could cover an entire shopping trip you go some go get some clothes if you want to go to the store do what you need to and you know what you can save on over 2400 brands at over a th000 Realtors you retailers excuse me you talking about loads Lacy Sephora Best Buy all of that's different things you got Electronics you got makeup you got clothing you got home improvement So Right Now ibata is offering our listeners $5 Just For Trying ibata by using the code locked on College when you register just just go to the app store or Google Play Store download the free ibata app and start earning cash back and use the code locked on College it spell it out for you that's i b o TTA in the Google Play or App Store and use the code locked on college to go ahead and save that $5 today as we continue rolling on today's episode of Locked on HBCU I appreciate you for making this your first listen of the day every day for your second listen make sure you're checking out lock on college football the season is here there's no more tiptoeing around the season is finally here and I honestly and truly cannot wait the only place I point you to get prepared for it all is locked on college football with Spencer mclin now if we're talking about prospects which you know we love to do on this show I like to give you something that I don't necessarily feel like you get elsewhere I like to bring in experts and every now and then especially when a guy like Gerald who y'all know I care about Gerald that's my guy right like I rock with Gerald for real this is not no game this is the time when I gotta to his horn for him pause like these are the times I really gotta talk the talk for him because Gerald comes on this show and he gives you a top 10 HB see Prospect list and when you have a guy like Robert McDaniel at the top of the list you may feel like I don't know especially when you're when he's projecting especially when he's saying if you play him here this is what I think he can be this this is scouting is so subjective man scouting is so subjective but when you're talking about projecting a player to a different position than you normally see him at some people don't see the vision let me say that Robert McDaniel the number one player on our top 10 HBCU Prospect list is also on the Senior Bowl watch list along with seven of his other counterparts on that same top 10 list and I think one was snubbed this is just me here to say my God Gerald knows what he's talking about and he don't care whatever that's cool but I'm G sit here and tell you every single time by the way I told you privately I'm gonna say it publicly congratulations on the job at Morgan State my guy is at his dream school now right so y'all show him some love coach unor Huggins I I on Twitter almost at the Instagram that's Junior whatever you know showing some love everywhere but anyway there's 11 HBCU players on this list you have Jared Hunter running back out of Howard you have Kenny Gallup defensive back out of Howard you have um Kendall bowler uh FAMU defensive back Jeremiah puit FAMU tied end Carson Vincent you have Alabama excuse me Alabama A&M offensive lineman James Burgess Alabama State defensive back Robert McDaniel Jackson State defensive back Eric Hunter Morgan State linebacker Elijah Williams Morgan State defensive lineman now that I'm realizing this I should have just grouped all of these by schools instead of saying one by one but out of South Carolina state you have offensive line Nick taste and then you also have Aaron Smith linebacker from the same University that's 11 players that's 11 players Williams are one are our number two player McDaniel our number one player Hunter our number five player burges our six Vincent 10 uh bowler three Gallop eight that's one two three four five six seven of these players that are on this list that were also in our top 10 HBCU Prospect list so I'm I'm just gonna say that real quick and matter of fact Nick taste was almost on this list but he ended up at 11 because jacobe hu had popped out of nowhere and he said I got to see this guy I have to put him on the list man like come on we talking about let me flash it up here real quick let me flash it up here real quick y'all looking at 10 six right now so on there you should see Vincent you should see Burgess right you should see Gallup then you go here on the top of the list one two and three are right there McDaniel Williams bowler no my bad bowler's four but still you have Hunter at five and you have the one guy who is not on the list and that's Karan pry and with pry not being on the list I have to admit that I believe he is a snub I have to admit that with pry not being on the list I do think that's a mistake I this may be going out on the limb this isn't about ranking prospects and any of that if Karan pry has a really solid year if Karan pry comes out and has a really good year he may be the HBCU Prospect I have the most confidence in getting drafted and the reason I say that it's the same reason I think he was snubbed from his senior B watch list I believe in my opinion his time at Kansas should hold a lot of weight one thing that we always say about our HBCU prospects is when they play Power four Now power for competition you got to show up because that's when all of the eyes are out there on you well Karan pruny came from Kansas it's not about playing Power for competition he was the power for competition and he was really good when he was there so we know what he looks like when he's going against a Texas when he's going against an Oklahoma we know what that looks like I don't have to project it I don't like it's there so that's the reason I have a lot of confidence in pry he just needs to validate it with a strong season in the CAA he was an all first team Big South quarterback I need him in 2024 to be an all CAA quarterback first team he was 13 I need him to be first team now he does that I think he's getting drafted man like I just think he checks a lot of the boxes that you want to be checked when you're talking about a cornerback coming from the FCS level when you're talking about a quarterback coming from the HBCU level and one thing that he has working in his favor is that he played at Kansas and I'll say it to the to the what's it called to the cows come home I think that's the cliche I'll keep saying it because I do think that it matters I do think that is important and it's something that we can't overstate we can't overstate it if that holds no weight it's rigged it's rigged to me man um but let's talk about two other players that we don't typically talk about uh because the majority of this list is players that we have dove into before even Hunter who's not on the list is a player who we've spoken about because he's a preseason offensive player of the year uh but Jeremiah puit tied in out of fam U this is probably the biggest projection on the list just cuz he wasn't a big part of the receiving Court last year he only had 202 yards uh um multiple games where singular catches like I think that this year with young and Dixon leaving that he'll have to take a step up he'll have to take a step into a bigger role and being a tight end being a player who was going to have a new quarterback you could easily see those dump offs try to get the easy uh reception get some Yak ability and he had a long reception against um against Alabama State yeah I think it was like nearly 70 yards against Alabama State where you saw the physicality you saw the athleticism with the ball in his hand you get him a little short pass and let him keep running from there I think he could be dangerous then you look at Aaron Smith Aaron Smith is a linebacker out of South Carolina state who's not a tackling machine that's typically what you see our linebackers praised for matter of fact he's not even a coverage guy he's only 218 as far as He's listed on the website but he's not a big coverage guy what he is is a disruptor that's what he should be know for 11 tackles for a loss last year five sacks led the team of both the year prior nine tackles for a loss four sacks second in tfls first and sacks on the team he's a very disruptive player who you know is going to drive home to penetrate the offensive line This is the type of player that you want he's going to cause disruption over and over and over um let him get double digit tackles for a loss again M maybe he up UPS the sack total maybe he gets the seven sacks he gets the seven sacks 11 12 tackles for a loss to combine with his 60 to 70 tackles that's a strong year by Aaron Smith that's a really strong year and judging by his progression that's definitely on the table but now as he push forward another thing on the table is a microscope fam 's under it we looked at it segment one I haven't taken it off the table yet it's still here it's just time to put Dawson odms under the microscope because is there pressure on him we definitely didn't talk like this a week ago but I think it's necessary and we'll do that as we continue with locked on HBCU today's episode is brought to you by ultimate college football and hey locked on HBCU fans I know you want to be a head coach you want to have your your uh I think it's called Dynasty I'm not really a gamer uh but on college football you can have that moment here and I want to take you I want to take a moment to give you a heads up about the brand new mobile game and I think you're love it as much as I do ultimate college football head coach it's an amazing game and a simulation that you get to step into the shoes of a head coach I don't know maybe you want to be the head coach of Texas Southern who knows maybe you do it's a beautiful graphic down there too ain't it um but here's what I really love about the game you're responsible for calling all of the offensive plays during the game your strategy will not only determine the success of your football season but will shape your future and Legacy as a program ultimate college football head coach is completely free with no ads 100% available offline so if you're on a plane go ahead and pop this thing outop boop boop boop go ahead and do your thing it's that simple to download the game visit ultimate-fx Legacy today as wrapping up today's episode of lock on HBCU I appreciate you for making this your first listen of the day every day making it all the way to segment three and I thank you two times for that the season two times is how far we two days away from the season now oh my gosh North Folk State FAMU FAMU under the microscope what can they be all of the pressure in the world on them North Folk State under the microscope is Dawson odms ever going to get it right Matthew SS the Virginia pilot Virginia pilot reporter who's been Breaking All the news about North Folk state and their coaching or their quarterback battle he also went on HBCU Sports on their live stream they had an interview up there you should go check it out it's going to be the one that says qb1 even though we're speaking about Dawson odums and he was asked if odums was on the hot seat gotta say yeah gotta say yeah it's hard when you look at it now if you remember a week and a half ago I want to say it was about a week and a half ago maybe two weeks ago I'm talking about is this the magic year for Dawson odms is this the year in which he gets it right I likened it to Trey Oliver big shoes but Trey Oliver won his uh he won his celebration Bowl in year three it was the third year with his inaugural uh recruiting class for odms the way he came in technically he went a year before he really got a recruiting class 2022 was his real true first recruiting class that was the comparison that I made i h i I don't know about you and who you interact with but I don't think that there's a fanbase less enthused about their season that I've interacted with than North Folk State this one's for you Mason I don't talk to Valley fans I'm sure they're probably pretty unenthused about their season this is what that was for you I didn't want to do that but you you told me to do that but at the same time North Folk state is a team that I'm talking about because they have a high-profile game on the way when I tell you anytime I try to speak some sort of positivity into Northfolk State I have gotten at least one fan say yo cut that crap out let me tell you a story real quick all right so I announced this on yesterday's episode I probably need to do it a little bit earlier but all of our shows are live premieres meaning anytime that the show first drops you can come in and you can give your opinion on what being said we do them at 7 o'clock in the morning that's when we do them 7 o'clock in the morning still morning shows the Friday and Monday will be evening shows but Tuesday Wednesday Thursday 7 AM shows if you wake up you want to check it out first thing in the morning you can do that but here's something that's pretty cool about it is you can also view everything that's gonna be talked about earlier as soon as I set it up to Premiere you can go and you can look at the description and see what I'm talking about I had a thumbnail on yesterday's episode that said north state or should have said under the radar with a picture of Northfolk State I woke up in the morning before the show dropped somebody was already somebody said we're under the radar could we suck somebody else said nah this ain't Dawson odm's year there is so much pessimism around this program Dawson odms has to be on the hot seat and it's not just because oh people don't expect much from the team this year there's a reason it's not just because this thing exists it's about the reason that this feeling exists is Dawson odms going six and5 in his first season two and three in the Mak you're feeling kind of good you have a winning record six and5 okay good but then the next year you go two- nine two and three in the rec in the M season again you go three and eight one and four in M play you haven't had any success you win your first three home games you've lost your last 10 can the fans be witness to a victory at home there's certain things like like if Dawson odms isn't on the hot seat and he wants to keep his seat from being hot blistering right could I think next year is the last year of his contract but if Dawson Odin wants to cool off what is probably already a hot seat then he needs to give the fans a reason to believe the fans aren't going to get you fired but the reasons the fans have no belief is a reason to get you fired is because you're not winning any games at home it's because you're not winning many games period you won five games over the last two years despite the fact that you won six your first season so you won six your first season and you struggled to not even struggled you have failed to reach that same bar with two years combined over the next two seasons these are bad looks I think you need to have a winning record in the Mak you have a winning record in the Mak you might be a four seed you might find yourself in fourth place you find top four maybe the fans are cool you win some home games give me a homecoming Victory please maybe you be all right but you got to win some some games in the state of of Virginia they was killing them after he lost to Virginia state it was killing them after that this is overall this is just a tough one but in my opinion that's what's necessary if he wants to get off of the hot seat he needs to have a winning record in M play and win some stinking games at home let the fans have something to be excited about once again the fans are not going to get you fired but the reason the fans are unruly the reason that fans are upset it's not only the fans that are upset about those reasons and the other people who are upset can get you fired it's just that simple Dawson Odin may or may not be on the hot seat but there goes the way to do it new offens coordinator Jason Phillips was also highlighted by Matthew or by Michael SS as somebody who they need to have some consistency at the offensive coordinator position they've been switching over and over and over the thing is if you don't win any games there may not be you may not be running the staff to have consistently consistency from the next year to the next year to the next year you got to win now Jason Phillips has to get it together now dson OD in that defense gotta get his everything you have to be on point in 2024 now on tomorrow's episode we get to finally do our game of the week I'm excited not gonna lie to y'all I'm excited I'm excited I'm excited three story lines no three matchups two story lines and one key to victory for each team clearly I'm a little bit Rusty but tomorrow I'll get all the grease out we gonna wipe it down we gonna be ready to get this show on the road now until tomorrow's episode next time we hear each other family take care stay blessed peace