Claire McCaskill: Harris has to be strong, nice and be the new kid on the block

JONATHAN LEMIRE, KATTY KAY, AND SAM STEIN ARE STILL WITH US, AS WELL. HIGH-STAKES NIGHT TONIGHT, JOE. >> YUP, HIGH-STAKES NIGHT. IT'S KAMALA HARRIS' NIGHT TO DEFINE HERSELF. LOOK AT THE POLLS. I DON'T KNOW, ALEX, IF WE CAN GET THE POLLS UP, BUT YOU LOOK AT THE POLLS WE SHOWED EARLIER, AND IT SHOWS A VERY TIGHT RACE. YOU LOOK AT STATES LIKE FLORIDA. THE MAP HAS EXPANDED DRAMATICALLY. I'M NOT JUST SAYING THAT BECAUSE OF THE MORNING CONSUL POLLS THAT JUST CAME OUT. YOU CAN LOOK AT FLORIDA. IT'S BEEN WITHIN FIVE POINTS IN A LOT OF DIFFERENT POLLS. NEVADA TIED. NORTH CAROLINA TIED. GEORGIA TIED. PENNSYLVANIA, HARRIS AHEAD. WISCONSIN, HARRIS AHEAD. YOU GO THROUGH ALL THESE STATES, SAM, AND IN JOE BIDEN'S FINAL FEW WEEKS, EVERYBODY KEPT SAYING THE SAME THING ON BOTH CAMPAIGNS. HE HAD ONE PATHWAY TO 270, AND THAT WAS THROUGH WISCONSIN, MICHIGAN, PENNSYLVANIA. LOOK AT THESE POLPOLLS, THE CBS POLL THIS WEEKEND WHERE WE'RE LOOKING AT INDIVIDUAL STATES, THEY'RE ALL UP FOR GRABS. THEY'RE ALL TIED. IN MOST POLL OVER THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS, EXCEPT FOR "THE NEW YORK TIMES"/SIENA POLL, WHICH, AGAIN, THE PSYCHIATRISTS UP AND DOWN FIFTH AVENUE IN NEW YORK CITY ARE VERY GRATEFUL. BECAUSE EVERY TIME IT COMES OUT, THEIR BUSINESS GOES WAY UP UP IN MANHATTAN. EVERY OTHER POLL THAT'S COME OUT, MOST OF THE STATE POLLS SHOW IT'S A TIE WITH ADVANTAGE LEANING TOWARD HARRIS. >> I HAVE TO BE HONEST, "THE NEW YORK TIMES"/SIENA POLL, I DIDN'T UNDERSTAND THE COLLECTIVE FREAKOUT AMONG DEMOCRATS. IT WAS A ONE-POINT RACE. EVERY POLL WE SEE IS A TIE. >> RIGHT. >> WHAT'S INTERESTING ABOUT THESE POLLS IS THE TIE ALSO EXTENDS TO THE SWING STATES. THAT WAS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE. NOW, THESE POLLS, WHO KNOWS, RIGHT? THE METHODOLOGY MIGHT CHANGE, WHATEVER. IF THERE ARE TIES COLLECTIVE LY ACROSS SIX, SEVEN STATES, COULD SHE WIN? YOU HAVE TO SEE WHERE THE RACE BREAKS. THERE IS SOME DATA NOT IN THE POLLS THAT I THINK IS WORTH MENTIONING. "THE BULWARK" HAS DATA FOR UNDECIDED VOTERS, THEY'RE SAYING TWO THINGS ABOUT THE CANDIDATES. ONE, THEY'RE LARGELY SICK OF TRUMP, DON'T WANT TO DO IT AGAIN. KNOW WHO HE IS, HE'S A KNOWN QUANTITY. THEY DON'T WANT TO VOTE FOR HIM, BUT THEY'RE SAYING UNDECIDED BECAUSE THEY'VE NOT HEARD MUCH FROM HER. IT'S IRONIC, SHE'S A SITTING VICE PRESIDENT, HAS BEEN ON THE SCENE FIVE YEARS NOW, BUT THEY DON'T KNOW ENOUGH ABOUT HER. TO ME, THAT SUGGESTS THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR HER TONIGHT IN THE DEBATE TO REACH THAT AUDIENCE. ANDIMATELY HIGHER THAN TRUMP'S CEILING. 48% IS PROBABLY HIS CEILING. SHE CAN GET BEYOND THAT IF SHE CAN COMMUNICATE TONIGHT AND FOLLOW THROUGH IN THE POST-DEBATE STRATEGY. >> THAT IS THE KEY. DONALD TRUMP COULD GO ABOVE HIS 47%, 48% CEILING. HASN'T DONE IT SINCE 2016. MAYBE HE'LL DO IT THIS YEAR. USUALLY PAST HIS PROLOGUE POLITICS. RIGHT NOW, KAMALA HARRIS JUST HAS TO CONVINCE THE OTHER 2%, 3% THAT SHE'S A SAFE BET. THAT SHE IS THE CHANGE. THEY DON'T HAVE TO GO WITH THIS GUY THAT AMERICANS ARE EXHAUSTED BY. THEY CAN MOVE IN A NEW DIRECTION. HOW DOES SHE DO THAT TONIGHT? >> I GUESS PART OF THE REASON FOR THE EXTRA XANAX PRESCRIPTIONS IS AUGUST HAS BEEN AN EXTRAORDINARY MONTH, RIGHT? SHE MOVED SO QUICKLY FROM BEING JOE BIDEN SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND IN THE POLLS, INCLUDING THE SWING STATE POLLS, TO NOW PLAYING EVEN. IT LOOKS LIKE SHE'S -- WE'RE SORT OF STUCK AT THE MOMENT ON EVEN. A BUNCH OF POLLS SUGGESTED THAT OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO. THAT'S WHY DEMOCRATS START TO GET NERVOUS. THEY WERE USED TO THE MOMENTUM, AND THE MOMENTUM MAY HAVE STALLED. TONIGHT IS A VERY IMPORTANT MOMENT, AND THEN IT'S A QUESTION OF HOWEVER MANY WEEKS, SIX MORE WEEKS, SEVEN WEEKS OF NONSTOP APPEARANCES. SHE'S GOT TO KEEP ON MAKING THAT STALE AND GET OUT AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. WHETHER IT IS RALLIES, MORE INTERVIEWS, TOWN HALLS, THINGS THAT GET ATTENTION AND GIVE HER THE OPPORTUNITY TO TELL THE STORY IN THE WAY SHE WANTS TO. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN THE POLLS, INTERESTING THIS CHANGE POLL NUMBER THAT CAME OUT IN "THE NEW YORK TIMES"/SIENA POLL. IT WAS DIFFERENT FROM THE FOX POLL A WEEK AGO WHICH SUGGESTED SHE IS SEEN AS CHANGE. >> THAT POLL IS DIFFERENT FROM EVERY OTHER POLL. >> YEAH. >> IT ALWAYS IS. IT ALWAYS IS. >> THAT MIGHT BE SOMEWHERE WHERE SHE -- SHE HAS TO MAKE A DECISION, HOW FAR DOES SHE DISTANCE HERSELF FROM JOE BIDEN AND THE POLICIES OF THE ADMINISTRATION? IF THIS IS AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE PEOPLE ARE LOOK FOR SOMEBODY NEW, HOW CAN SHE CAST HERSELF AS THE NEW PERSON? >> WILLIE? >> CLAIRE, YOU'RE ON YOUR WAY TO PHILADELPHIA, DEBATE TO WANT, 9:00, 90 MINUTES. THIS IS AN IMPORTANT MOMENT FOR THE CANDIDATES. GOES WITHOUT SAYING. PARTICULARLY FOR VICE PRESIDENT HARRIS WHO HAS DONE ONE JOINT INTERVIEW SINCE THE HOOPLA AND ENERGY AT THE DNC IN CHICAGO. FIRST TIME SHE'LL MEET DONALD TRUMP. FIRST TIME THEY'RE ON A STAGE TOGETHER. WHAT WILL YOU BE LOOKING FOR? >> SHE HAS A HARD JOB, AND I'M NERVOUS THE EXPECTATIONS FOR HER ARE SO HIGH AND THE EXPECTATIONS FOR HIM ARE SO LOW. TYPICALLY, THESE THINGS DON'T COME OUT REALLY LOPSIDED. ALTHOUGH, THE LAST ONE KIND OF DID. >> YEAH. >> SO I THINK ALL OF US ARE NERVOUS BECAUSE OF THAT MAYBE. LISTEN, SHE'S GOT TO DO THREE IMPORTANT THINGS. SHE'S GOT TO BE STRONG. SHE'S GOT TO SHOW REAL STRENGTH SO WE CAN VANQUISH THIS IDEA THAT SHE'S NOT TOUGH ENOUGH TO STAND UP TO TRUMP'S BOYFRIEND, PUTIN, XI, ALL THE ONES HE'S SO IN LOVE WITH. SECOND, SHE'S GOT TO BE NICE AND GIVE PEOPLE A SENSE OF LIGHTNESS AND JOY AND HOPE AND OPTIMISM AND FEELING REALLY GOOD ABOUT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. THE THIRD THING SHE'S GOT TO DO, AND THIS IS THE HARDEST, IS SHE'S GOT TO BE THE NEW KID ON THE BLOCK. SHE'S GOT TO FIGURE OUT A WAY -- AND BY THE WAY, SHE'S GOT AN ADVANTAGE, WILLIE, BECAUSE PEOPLE UNDERSTAND FUNDAMENTALLY THAT VICE PRESIDENTS DON'T MAKE POLICY. THE REASONS AMERICA DOESN'T KNOW HER IS SHE WAS A VICE PRESIDENT. IT'S A DIMINISHING ROLE. EVERYBODY UNDERSTANDS YOU'RE NOT IN CHARGE. YOU ARE A SUPPORTING CHARACTER WHEN YOU ARE VICE PRESIDENT. SHE'S GOT TO BE THE LEADING CHARACTER TONIGHT, AND SHE'S GOT TO NOT DISTANCE HERSELF FROM A MAN THAT WE ALL RESPECT AND KNOW HAS DONE AN AMAZING JOB, BUT SHE'S GOT TO ESTABLISH HERSELF AS THE NEW KID ON THE BLOCK, THAT SHE IS THE CHANGE THAT ALL OF THESE DISENGAGED VOTERS, THESE SWING VOTERS THAT WILL DECIDE THIS ELECTION, THAT THEY SEE HER AS THE CHANGE THEY'RE LOOKING FOR. >> THAT IS, MIKE, WE HEARD IT IN THE CAMPAIGN -- EXCUSE, THE CONVENTION AND COMING OUT OF IT, THAT IS THE MESSAGE, WE'RE NOT GOING BACK. REMEMBER WHAT IT WAS LIKE UNDER TRUMP? WE'RE NOT GOING BACK. WHAT DEMOCRATS ARE EXPECTING TONIGHT ARE THE HANGING CURVE BALLS FROM THE LAST DEBATE, IMMIGRATION, DEMOCRACY, ALL THOSE OTHER THINGS THAT JOE BIDEN LET GO PAST, THAT SHE WILL SMACK THOSE OUT OF THE PARK. >> WE'LL FIND OUT TONIGHT. CLAIRE IS EXACTLY RIGHT. THIS NATION, AND THANK YOU TO SAM STEIN FOR POINTING OUT, WE HAVE TO CALM DOWN ABOUT THESE POLLS. THE CLOSEST OF THESE POLLS. >> DON'T PRAISE THEM. >> I RARELY DO IT BUT I WANT TO. >> ABOUT TIME, THANK YOU, MIKE. >> EXTRAORDINARILY CLOSE. IT'LL REMAIN CLOSE FOR A WHILE. TONIGHT IS HER INTRODUCTION TO THE COUNTRY, I WOULD THINK. KAMALA HARRIS. >> YEAH. >> SHE HAS TO PROVE THAT SHE CAN BE COMMANDER IN CHIEF. SHE HAS TO BE NICE, AS YOU POINTED OUT. BUT SHE ALSO HAS TO DO SOMETHING THAT DONALD TRUMP IS INCAPABLE OF EVER DOING. PROVE THAT SHE KNOWS HOW PEOPLE LIVE. PROVE THAT SHE KNOWS HOW PEOPLE SHOP AT GROCERY STORES. PROVE THAT SHE KNOWS THAT PEOPLE'S LIVES ARE UP AND DOWN. AND PROVE THAT SHE KNOWS WHAT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW, THEY'RE EXHAUSTED BY DONALD TRUMP AND REALLY DON'T WANT TO VOTE FOR HIM. SHE'S GOT TO PROVIDE THAT ALTERNATIVE. TO WANT IS A GOOD START TO DO IT. >> CERTAINLY, POLLS SUGGEST AMERICANS WANT TO LEARN MORE ABOUT HER, AND THAT'LL BE KEY TONIGHT, FILLING IN THE GAPS. HOW DOES SHE GO ON THE ATTACK? HOW DOES SHE PRESS THE OFFENSIVE AGAINST TRUMP, SOMETHING PRESIDENT BIDEN IN RECENT MONTHS, PARTICULARLY AT THE ATLANTIC DEBATE STAGE WASN'T ABLE TO DO? WHAT WOULD BE YOUR COUNSEL FOR HER AS THE PROSECUTOR? >> SHE NEEDS TO STAY FOCUSED ON WHAT THOSE THREE THINGS ARE AND NOT -- I MEAN, IF SHE NEEDLES HIM, IF HE GETS, YOU KNOW, TRUMPY, OBVIOUSLY WAY TRUMPY, THAT'S WHIP CREAM AND CHERRY ON THE SUNDAE. BUT THE ICE CREAM IS THE THREE THINGS I TALKED ABOUT. IF SHE GETS DISTRACTED BY TRYING TO NEEDLE HIM, SHE MIGHT LOSE THAT THREAD. HE'S GOING TO GET RATTLED JUST BECAUSE SHE'S GOING TO BE GOOD. I MEAN, SHE'S GOING TO BE ABLE. I THINK SHE'LL BE VERY DISMISSIVE OF