Bitcoin (BTC) Price Plummets: Is $40,000 the Next Target?

Bitcoin fell by another 3.9% yesterday kind of in line with our expectations but there is some differences going on here that is making me wonder whether or not we're actually going to hit those targets that we were talking about yesterday so in today's video I'm going to be reviewing the price action giving this new data on the 1 hour and daily time frames and giving you an update as to my thoughts and opinions as to where I think the price action is going as I get into today's video smash that like button if you're new subscribe and let's get into it so here we have Bitcoin paired up with the US s DT we're on the 1hour binance chart and well we saw this move to the downside yesterday and well yeah it's it kind of come down quite nicely but it hasn't really reached the levels of expectations um we are looking for this price action or were looking for this price action to come down into a 1.618 to 1 um 236 this area just here basically 56716 to 5752 uh it should a more straight line drop but we're not really seeing that we are seeing still bearish patterns forming here uh we can see that we're overbought here so we are still looking for slippage to the downside we do have our trend line still here in place and of course if I take that out of consideration and actually starts showing you the idea of a triangular wedge pattern right in here which is a continuation that we are likely to see uh slippage to the downside now this interesting structure that we have basically tells me that we're not impulsive in this fifth wave movement um and so there's a couple of different ways that this can play out okay the super bearish one is that it just completely collapses and drops down significantly further than our range here um and that's because we have an overextension uh the more kind of conservative approach would be that we have some kind of diagonal or alternatively because I'm always open to ideas I got this structure wrong um it doesn't necessarily mean that we're not going to come down to our target range it just means that I got it wrong on how we get there um so I'm going to first of all ignore the five wave move at the moment because that's not really what we're seeing inside our data here but we are seeing a bearish pattern so I want to kind of reflect on that a little bit and I want to take this down to a 15minute time frame just to kind of see the structures that we see within this move to the downside okay so we do see this kind of overlapping structure here and that's the concern that I have uh and of course this overlap here with this area this basically tells us that this is very corrective to the downside and it's not impulsive to the downside and the reason for that is if you try to make impulsive moves here we can see that we just break down we have this overlap here that's crosses this level and then you have this big drop it doesn't make a lot of sense even if you try to go ahead and say well what about if we have that wave three down here and we have the drop there that would be fine except we then see this additional kind of overlap structure here which doesn't make a lot of sense either so if I go ahead and measure this distance right inside here and we pull that to the bounce well we should be hitting 1.618 and we don't so it doesn't look to me like this is an impulsive breakdown so this is going to be a very corrective pattern to the downside WX YX Z for example a bit of a push to the upside which is fine this move to the upside is not irregular I don't think looks pretty standard to me um falling just short of its Target but very standard and this is kind of in line with why I went short on card Dino within the uh Discord Community yesterday and this was because it made sense to do so we were kind of pushing up into the range of expectation and we're looking for a move to the downside so for Bitcoin here uh we can see uh that we are likely to see further downside this continuation pattern is interesting I would be looking for a potential short on bitcoin but maybe even altcoins uh where we do look for the next kind of targeted range coming down here just a little bit further um between 58,183 400 to keep nice round numbers um and that will be the approach now as you can see on the 15minute time frame we're getting rejection right here on these EMAs and smas I'm not too concerned about the smaller time frame stuff I'm going to bring this back to our daily and you can see that this move to the downside is not a massive move it's not going to bring us down to our targeted range so we're going to see whether or not this does break down further or whether or not we're in some kind of biggish a bigger move to the upside okay so we have this idea that we have a three-wave drop into here but this is actually a part of a bigger three-wave move to the upside back up into this upper area where we then can then start thinking about whether this is going to be a diagonal structure like so and as you can kind of see it starts to get complicated right and I know a lot of people don't follow Elliot way Theory overly well um and so I don't want to over complicate things but for the most part as you can kind of see within a chart this is kind of how I I'm looking at the market right now it's quite indecisive and as I've been talking about in previous videos this pattern here that I'm potentially mapping out is also showing us the idea of just extracting liquidity from the market has happened time and time and time again and it looks like this is happening even down here in these lower ranges now we do have this idea of our trend line again this would then pull us down a little bit deeper and so forth but for the most part I'm looking for this fifth wave and I'm just not thinking we're there yet okay so I'd like to be wrong on that I'd like to kind of get this over and done with but I just don't think that's going to be the way I think we are going to move down just a little bit over the next kind of 24 hours we target out that kind of 58,183 400 then we bounce up into this upper area of resistance uh 597 to 6100 and then that's going to coincide with your 50 EMA 50 SM which you see here which will be our resistances uh along side this area and that's where we go short on the market and we then Target out that additional range so I don't think it's impossible for us to get down into these lows I just don't think this is the pattern that's going to get us there so what we're going to do is we're going to go short somewhere in around this area in the next kind of maybe four or five days and then we target this out and again you know I'm my minimum expectation is always 1.5 right I talk about this all the time right 1.5 risk reward ratio is kind of where my my aspirations lie that is because I like to make 20% on my trades every single time every single day multiple times over rather than trying to hope to get like 100% or 200% or 1,000% in gains I'm not all about those big leverage positions and I'm not about sitting in a position for such a long time that you kind of see all those gains come and go because it just doesn't quite hit your takeprofit I'm all about making sure that I have proper risk management and I'm not too greedy right and so I'd rather take you know 20% moves over 100% move if I am doing it more consistently so as you can kind of see here this is just bring us right back down to uh to this previous area of consolidation if I were to use this idea um I would be looking at stop loss at around 6,650 I would be looking at entry around let's say 59,000 I'm going to actually go ahead and change it to 60,000 flat or something to that effect um and then Target out 1.5 on the risk reward ratio uh which would put us right about here take profit at 59,230 and that there with a little bit of Leverage is going to get me my 20% that I'm looking for and it's going to put us right down into this previous consolidation range of course there's going to be more profit here I do think we I like to move down I just like to lock in profits as I go so that'll be my approach to it uh I'll be looking for rejection off the 50 EMA 50 SMA and of course if we don't and we do rally up and we have kind of finished off these lows because there is a reasonable amount of buying pressure down there and if we do get that breakout situation and we get a couple of candles above the 50 EMA 50 SMA um I would be inclined to maybe go long uh go long up here with targeting out the 200 EMA tight stop loss 1.5 risk World ratio again and then look and see how the price reacts to the 200 EMA which is currently at 61,7 and again if we get rejected there go short and so forth and repeat the process because there's so much liquidity to be extracted here um that trading can be insanely profitable if done correctly and of course I'm not overly greedy so taking a look at everything here uh that's kind of my Approach and if I were to be trading I'm going to be trading on bitg or blof fin they are my go-to platforms if you can't use bitg for jurisdiction reasons then check out blof fin Linked In the description below it's completely kyc free uh obviously you get extra benefits if you do kyc but you don't have to do kyc so it's a fantastic platform to use if you haven't done so already go ahead and check it out Linked In the description below there's some fantastic signup deals as well depending on where you are around the world okay so Bitcoin on the 1 hour time frame hell expect volatility the kind of the message that I've been talking about for a while now right uh basically expect the unexpected and expect to see big swings in the market on the small the time frames that basically just extract liquidity what about the larger time frames well the larger time frames are quite interesting as well if we come up into our daily time frame what are we looking at well we hit the hopper area we are still looking at this as five wave impulsive breakdown uh we are of course closing lower than that 200 EMA we got two candles here so we should be thinking about shorts on the market uh on the daily time frame we obviously are still looking for this move to the downside and of course depending on your appetite for risk we could be looking at that move down even deeper towards 40 44,000 but I expect a bounce before we get there so I wouldn't be shorting just yet um on The Daily time frame that is obviously take advantage of the smaller time frame frames until your heart's content um but I'm still looking for the completion of this fifth wave move and then we'll be looking for a relief rally where I expect resistance to be found on the 50 EMA 50 SMA and then from there I'm going to be looking at this as a bigger kind of breakdown uh which will see significant Returns on investment here we'll obviously go in for a longer term short uh again I'm going to look for 1.5 risk R ratio which is basically going to test out these previous lows to be honest with you um I may just move the stop loss and do a trailing stop on The Daily time frame uh rather than you know actually coming out at 1.5 risk World ratio because this one's going to be very very lucrative potentially coming down here and of course we can reverse this once we complete that y wave structure uh which hypothetically if we do complete this kind of idea then we are going to be looking for us to kind of be testing out $54 to $52,000 which could be a fantastic place for a short um up here into that particular range once that's done of course we can then into a long position and Target out the bounce which will take us back to the previous area of consolidation and resistance and then from there we go down into those lower ranges of $40,000 in my opinion on a bigger macro scale guys it will look something like this where we can see that kind of slippage to the downside where we test out that lower trend line that we've been testing out before um of course you know things can change but that's going to be my approach to this if it allo plays out as it is mapped out in my head um but on the daily time frame yeah things are kind of mapping out and working as they were kind of expected we're almost in an oversold area on the daily stochastic oh we are oversold but the smoothing of K the white line not there yet so we are still looking for this move to the downside before we push on up in line with our hourly and 4 hourly charts so yeah everything's kind of just playing out quite nicely here looking for that relief rally we're looking for a bit of a run to the upside hitting upper area of resistance which in my opinion is going to be around that 61,200 to 61,500 maybe it'll push a little bit more but I don't think so right in line with the 200 uh sorry right in line with the 50 EMA 50 SMA um so brief breakdown below that 200 EMA as we had seen previously relief rally then dump again all of this is a part of a much bigger play though guys if you kind of zoom out of this you can start to really map in all of these kind of structures that we're talking about and how we get down to that $44,000 again this is still subject to change but this is something that we've been talking about and mapping for quite some time on bitcoin and it's good to see that things are kind of playing out slowly but they're playing out as expected for the most part guys you can let me know what your thoughts and opinions are on all of this in the comments down below or join us in our free Discord server Linked In the description and if you have found it useful informative smash that like button if you haven't done so yet check out my second Channel over here where I go through the cardano analysis every single day