Chiefs-Ravens Reactions and Super Bowl Picks With Marcus Spears | The Ryen Russillo Podcast

loaded Friday trying to get you ready for the start of the NFL full Sate and obviously College as well I'll do an open on my NFL predictions also recap Thursday night a win by the Chiefs we're going to do some of that with Marcus Spears in the turnover also some college ball what he likes out of the SEC early into of the season and let's try to get smarter at gambling Chad milman the Action Network a friend a Founder somebody that's just smart about it so we're just going to talk about how you can put together a plan this fall the sence picks off of that and life [Music] advice I want to start talking about last night's game win by the Chiefs at home in Kansas City to start the 24 season I'm going to get to my conference Championship picks a couple other thoughts on playoff turnover and just a lot of things here as you get ready for the season uh last night was great last night was just a reminder of like when this game is right it is so much fun and I thought it was a just it wasn't that it was just exciting at the very end you look at those two teams and think okay you know these are two really good football teams so I have some Chief's thoughts but I want to start with Baltimore and Lamar Lamar checking in at 205 faster sure uh if there was a guy that maybe didn't even need to be faster it' be him I actually don't like it at 205 Taylor checking in well I don't want to look I'm just giving you the full scope of the coverage but um look pretty good down the tunnel not complaining so Lamar 205 at 27 years old behind that offensive line with which struggled I felt like last night um it's not like the Aging big man in the NBA where you think you know it'd be nice if he Duncan this and as Duncan extended his career a lot of it had to do with him just deciding to play it a lighter weight so it it's not even the same thing that we're talking about here but I actually thought he looked really skinny and everybody's raving about it but I I'm looking at it going with his style of play even though I'd say as far as like any of the Dual threat guys or open field guys it's not like he's get clean shots all that often and he did a really good job of getting down and everything else um I don't think he was great last night but he was also the main reason that Baltimore got back in this game and then well it wasn't going to be tying it up because once they got the likely touchdown that then was ruled that he was out of bounds they were going to go for two so who knows what happens uh and Lamar at that point 121 and one against the spread as an underdog so if they had not even gotten the two-point conversion it would have been another cover for Lamar as a dog which is an incredible number so as you're sitting there watching the score come off because you see likely's foot just on the white barely there and by the way likely looks terrific and you could see his development as a weapon at the end of last season with Andrews being down and it looked like they were going to him even more than Andrews as that game was closing out um but let's go over some of the Lamar stuff from last night because as you're sitting there watching the game sometimes you'll notice stuff that you're not even looking for other times you're looking for it depends on how you watch what your priorities are but at one point I was thinking like where where are any of the throw down the field um and then as Chris Collins were told us as we finished up at the first half maybe it was back at this very start of the second half he had mentioned that the average depth of Target was only one yard beyond the line of scrimmage and watching the first half and the throws that either were available or the throws Lamar didn't want to make uh that was very evident because I I just kept thinking like where God a lot of these throws are just out to the side the entire time and with Z flowers in another season you'd expect a little bit more of a deep threat um I think part of it is on that o line um in the beginning of the game when you're watching Lamar and Derk Henry get it going and you're thinking okay this is something the teams are going to have to worry about in theory because if they want to hand it off to Henry as as you start to wear down the defense and then the moment where Lamar just catches you cheating and then he keeps it like that's a really dangerous thing and maybe teams are going to have to load up on them in the box and that means that some of those deep throws are going to be more available for them which again could very well happen this season depending on what you think Henry is going to be for the Long Haul um but it didn't seem like Kansas City really worried about it other than the early part of the game so when you watched the way Kansas City was aligned and I didn't get to see any of it other than just some Endzone replays it looked like there weren't a lot of deep throws there but they also at the same time were not super committed um to stopping anything up front because they seem to just dismiss any of the Henry part of it because he was only 13 carries for 46 yards um Chris Jones also targeting specific offensive lineman throughout Seth Walder ESPN does a really good job on some of these numbers after the fact he had a really good number and that Jones lined up on 42% of his snaps at the edge positions uh in comparison he was only 18% on the edge last season overall uh but Lamar did miss some throws downfield this isn't to now again another season in to relitigate who Lamar Jackson is as quarterback the two MVPs he's a top five guy at the position um but yeah I felt like there was some stuff that was out there but at the same time with 16 carries for 122 he the whole reason they were back in this thing at the end because like can you imagine especially week one and with the lack of pre-season snaps that these guys have now having to Chase Lamar around in the fourth quarter like even if you get pressure you're not going to get to him like he's gonna step up he's GNA find a way around you and you could just see the Defenders especially up front for Kansas City uh they were just toast here's what I'd say about the Chiefs in the year you should have gotten him they won the Super Bowl you should have gotten him last year it's the worst Patrick Mahomes season of his career think about this his rookie really the first year he played right because he had a start in the technical rookie year but in the First full year as a starter he threw 50 touchdowns on 580 attempts last year he threw 27 touchdowns on 597 attempts there was a lot that just didn't look to the standard of momes and yet the guy wins a back-to-back Super Bowl yeah Aden Xavier worthy who was so fast it looked like Baltimore on that on that sweep on that end of round he looked so fast that he almost looked like the handoff he was there too quick it almost looked a little clunky back there and then once he took off if you looked at the replay and the angles of pursuit it was like oh wait like we have no chance another year into his career from Rice the screen game that is always going to be creative and always a pain in the ass the Noah gray catch the setup the Pacho touchdown if you look at that route or everything the combination of everything they're doing in that play Kelsey basically takes out two Defenders just on his route to the end zone so that's better than a block and then gray just kind of turns around and follows all the space takes it right down to the goal line I love that kind of stuff because they're easy they're safe throws and it makes sense with somebody like Kelsey you've got somebody on the inside and somebody the outside corner on him because you can't just let him go one-on-one because he's going to find a way to body up and make the catch and as you're watching all of this stuff happened and combining that with a defense that was the youngest in the League last year and by the way one of my favorite things from last night's game was you know with the misdirection stuff with Lamar and the constant fear of him breaking one and getting outside because it's still going to happen a couple times a game but you're try to limit it to 20 yards instead of like like 60 yards the pursuit the support the way the other Defenders that weren't maybe on the primary side of where the ball was going the amount of activity that I saw from all these Kansas City Defenders I just loved it I loved it and yet this group the youngest unit on defense in the NFL that's when you're supposed to get him and they win a Super Bowl so that's why I'm picking Kansas City to three feet it's boring as hell I tried to do something different in college football in the face of Ohio State and Georgia and picking Oregon but I just don't feel like doing it again unless Taylor tackles who was on Pace now for 34 false starts is going to just false start themselves out of the playoffs he had 17 penalties last year the most in the NFL for a player since 2015 so it's boring but last year's the year they were supposed to not win the Super Bowl and you add another year with this defensive seasoning momes having better weapons likely not going to regress from what last year he was statistically I can't come up with anything else last year I picked San Francisco over Buffalo um so it still feels a little chalky conference picks I'm going Kansas City over Cincinnati and in the NFC I'm Going Green Bay over Dallas why Green Bay well if you look at them last year depending on which metric you want to look at there's a number that has him 23rd in defense 27th on defense and another one uh the offense was sixth in both of the metrics that I was looking at I don't know that it's just Jordan love but man it has a lot to do with him he was a completely different guy week eight on if you want to look at the close of the Season he finished six- two we know the receiver group is maybe without that headliner number one but man everyone seems to love this group whether it's dos Wicks the tight ends it's the youngest team to win a playoff game since the NFL merger so it feels like I'm buying this a little bit the defensive line is stacked they were 31st in interceptions last season but they added Xavier McKinna they have a new defensive coordinator they're going to play single high safety they spend a second and fourth round pick on two safeties from Big programs so maybe I'm guilty of new just defaulting to being better but the camps by all accounts were really good back there from a group that didn't really provide a ton they have one of the best corners in the league so I'm kind of falling in love with the Packers not just because of Jordan love but buying in the momentum of what we saw the second half of last season um we could both agree that I'm making a lot of assumptions here if you want to pick somebody the else I can't even really tell you wrong but I just didn't want to pick the 49ers again so the exercise every year and trying to figure out the playoff field is replacing six teams with six new ones um I could do that and guess one through 14 but it would just be such a massive guess I actually think it'd be a little pointless um but if we look at some of the things that we probably should pay more attention to in that turnover I think there's some pretty simple rules to apply we know that six quarterbacks went in the first 12 picks history tells us that three are going to be gone from these teams in three years which has to be so depressing like one of you one of the fan bases listening to that right now that have one of those guys in the top 12 you're like can you stop saying that just think your rookie is going to have like 360 yards in one of the games like four weeks in like nailed it got this guy for 10 years then he's on the practice squad somewhere else in three years it's going to happen unless we just have an incredible outlier draft class where five of the six of the guys are terrific look May's not playing right away JJ's hurt penx is gonna play it right away so it's a little different than just all of a sudden six guys becoming the week one starters for the franchises or you could have not the outlier class you could have the outlier class going the other way the 20 21 class where five of the top 15 picks were quarterbacks and four of those other than Trevor Lawrence are already on other teams but I do think Caleb Williams is the guy so if you're looking at the Houston model for turnover in the playoffs and for the Bears on the NFC side of this uh I rarely am this free of worry for a rookie quarterback because when I've watched Caleb the last couple years I just marvel at his ability and I said it I think with B where I went he does the hard things easy already and I'd rather start from there I want to see 13 14 picks from him I don't want to see a clean I mean sure it'd be great statistically if he throws 30 touchdowns and has eight picks but I'm not going to worry about it because I'd Rather somebody raise their level of risk and make a few mistakes and start to figure out like hey that's covered in the NFL versus being covered in college and not lose his confidence throughout that process because I want to see a guy trusting his ability although Josh Allen I remember talking with Chris long was like eventually after I threw those three picks I think in the first half against New England he said he like maybe maybe I have to dial down the risk a little bit so I think the Bears fit a profile here of one of those teams that could jump in I know this is a bit of a trendy pick but they were seven and 10 last year they had an average defense but now you're adding an average defense that probably felt like you know I feel like defensive units that can be good after like week 10 you're like this just they were kind of a different team but there's some teams that I think start year with a really good defense and then the defense knows because the quarterback play they're so helpless that the defensive numbers don't even really match how good they can actually be uh there's no way even in a rookie year I would think Caleb Williams is the net negative of quarterback the Bears have had the last couple years so maybe that's part of it looking for that because the other element with Houston is if you look at them and you go is it all just CJ is it an improving defense well sometimes it's as simple as turnovers and I cannot emphasize this point enough when you're trying to think about turnover and these close close games and how do the bad team stay in the game with the good team but when you play 17 of these and you have between what 12 and 15 possessions a game and if you start to give the ball away one and a half more times one year than the other year or get the ball back one and a half more times more per week than you did the previous year like it just it completely changes the way we look at you as a team A lot of times unless you just have the most turnover PR quarterback ever a lot of times it could just be the luck of the bounces and we can't figure out why we didn't see the five- win team making the playoffs the next year if you look at Houston they were minus one on turnover differential in 22 last year they were plus 10 and you throw it in with one of the most efficient rookie Seasons we've seen in NFL history um sometimes teams just figure it out Detroit could be an example of that everything coming together or really more specifically with Detroit it's a terrible defense goes to what a slightly below average defense paired with a really good offense a quarterback that is a guy that took a little bit longer than I ever thought it would or I should say I didn't think it would work out because it was taking so long and combining that with all of these great offensive weapons you also have the hurt quarterback part of it where you go how did that happen well let's review Cincinnati goes from 12-4 with burrow to 9-8 last year burrow barely playing 10 games out of the playoffs and aside Cincinnati going nine and8 last year considering what was happening with burough is probably one of of the best coaching jobs we had in the League last year but they're out of the playoffs so nobody really cares then sometimes your division is just awful like was Tampa this sneaky team last year or did they go eight- nine in an awful division so that ends up having probably more to do with the turnover than it is everyone just completely misjudging who a team is tell me what your turnover differential was from one year to the next tell me what happened with your start quarterback tell me who your division was or in the case of Detroit one of the favorites in the NFC maybe it's just growing at the right time but I'm going to try to get in front of it the Green Bay final note because I like to update everyone on this quarterback captains have been named and the media loves when a rookie quarterback is named a captain because then the media will be like well it's a team vote man this guy lock room already respects him or the coach is like you have to make the quarterback one of the captains because if you don't it looks terrible we get some Connor Cook stuff does Connor work so let's run through it 32 teams 27 quarterbacks are captains oh wait a minute what about the other five hold on four teams named captains every week so that means like Lamar Jackson is probably a captain a lot I imagine Jordan love of Green Bay will be a captain a lot Seattle's doing it weekly I don't know if that's a Baltimore thing with McDonald there carry over I'm gonna do it like Harbaugh did Washington also does it weekly apparently unless some of this information is outdated the one that's left out the Raiders who on Wikipedia have Jimmy Garoppolo named as one of their captains I don't think that's going to happen so what we're really looking at here is 28 of the 28 teams that name captains for the season all have quarterbacks as captains the Bears have eight captains so it's because Caleb Williams already owns the room does bon Knicks own the room like will Levis is a captain it's because you have to make your quarterback the captain so don't I'm not trying to dump on all the new guys here but next time you see a tweet from somebody saying someone has been named captain it means [Music] nothing we got Marcus Spears NFL live ESPN and he has a big announcement as well swagu the podcast now out Wednesdays and Fridays what's up man good to see it you too brother good to see you man it look good in that background it's the water behind you it is I oh my God bro you know I gotta get the blinds back up again but you know you know how it is like sometimes you'll just do something like why has that been this way in the house for six months like no doubt yeah so maybe maybe once we get through week one we'll open that back up again uh look I I want to talk some college at some point let's not let's not uh make the mistake of ignoring any of that but I do want to start with some of the NFL stuff that I open the show with and that's just always trying to figure out that turnover now was going back through your career you really only had the one down year there with Dallas in 2010 when when you go from an 11 and5 to a six and 10 team do you feel it in August or is it the randomness like it's very specific to the team so everybody has a different story for for falling off a bit but what do you remember about the expectations and then realizing like we're not the same group well we got really young man um we got really young after that 11 and five year I think that was the year to left um we had some um offensive linemen that were that were either traded away or went to other teams um so it the the personality of the team changed the veteran presence of the team meaning you know with Wade Phillips man you you are responsible for being a man and taking care of your business more than when I came from Bill parcel's when you know they want to know every minute of the day what you're doing and where you at how you working out uh what you who you with Wade was more of a when we in this building we locked in on football and when you leave it's about your family um and I think we had a lot of Veteran guys that knew how to manage that time and then the following year that six and 10 year we got young man head coaching change change I think that was the midseason change or early in the season to Jason Garrett like it was just a lot it was a lot of newness and a lot of difference um in that team so I think that was more of that was more about change and not having the same team and personality yeah look I mean there's probably Cowboys fans going why not remind everybody that Romo missed games too yeah which is which is obviously maybe the the simplest answer of the whole thing I just was wondering because we sit here every year through the summer trying to figure out like all right who's in that's out and who's out that's going to be in uh did you have a Super Bowl pick already for NFL live yeah Chiefs okay I mean right I'm I couldn't be more aligned I don't know how you argue anyone else unless you just want to pick somebody else which is totally fine because this doesn't happen and you know what we got to stop doing man we got to stop for the sake of now here's the here's the caveat would I love a different alternative probably it would probably be more exciting right to to get down to the end but again I don't know how exciting how more exciting it'll be than a team potentially threee um I don't know how more exciting it'll be to see Patrick Mahomes magic in the playoffs once again like when we looking at those three-hour window games in the playoffs as much as you know other teams hate the Chiefs and where they are right now we want to see Patrick Mahomes in big games like that's giving us Jordan X feel that's given us the times that we talk about other leagues back in the day when I was there and I was watching and you should have been uh you should have seen momes in that era right like so you know we got this thing in media RR that we we want to move on to the next thing so quick after we all right we had enough of that let's move on to the next and I liken it a lot to basketball man Steph Curry still hitting threes you know LeBron James still dominating games being a point forward Kevin Durant still one of the most prolific scores we've ever seen that doesn't take away from the newness of Anthony Edwards or the newness of Luca dones that doesn't take away from it but we got to just be careful sometimes of of moving on so I took the Chiefs cuz one I think they a better team than last year if you were going to get them it was last year to get him and I mean now I mean we saw a little bit last night that wasn't even a clean game by them and I think Baltimore may be the second best team in the league who'd you have at the NFC Eagles okay so that's going against it a little bit because people talk about them like they won four games last year I'm nervous as hell but it's the Eagles right like I think it was more about their obviously we we thought term around culture um I got Jason this year on Monday night countdown Kelsey and I haven't really dug deep into it but we in Philly week two and I'mma ask him what the hell happened um it it was it it was definitely not about skill set or talent because we saw him win 11 games still it was more of are y'all interested like you know it's something happening Monday through Saturday that's causing you guys to not perform on Sunday like we have grown accustomed to the past two years so tonight is going to be a big Lim Miss test for that as well but more importantly man like we forget dude the first of all I don't know if anybody has been good as has been as good as Hoy Roseman in bringing Talent um with the with with the two new corners and uh Quon Mitchell and coert de Jean that's that's a really good draft you obviously goonna get saquin Barkley and free agency I don't know what the hell the Giants was thinking um and Jaylen Herz should be you go and and then too these coordinator changes to me are are huge Vic fangio already has a he has a system in the way that he does things oh they also brought in Devon White who is I know out for this game high level linebacker in this league U fell out of fell out of favor in Tampa I don't know why but played at a high level he's a Super Bowl champion already um this team is littered with Talent it's about putting him in the right position to be successful and then too we heard some of the some of the uh some of the problems that serion and jayen had communication wise and and philosophically about what they wanted to do so hopefully they got that fixed and rectified You' mentioned parcel's earlier we were talking Cowboys and I think it plays into some of the culture stuff you're talking here but I I have to ask is one of the rare guys that played for Sabin when he won a national title and played for Parcels I don't want to hear about how they're the same I want to hear about how they're different maybe maybe you got Nick you know when it's 20 years ago it's probably a little different version of Nick than the one we just unfortunately saw Le college football but give me something that would say hey this is actually something that that's different about the two that you might not know well I mean I think a lot of people learning about Nick now Nick is a dude bro like very robotic when he was coaching uh didn't want to misspeak much played the played the game perfectly right outside of being the greatest college football coach to ever live in my opinion but he played the media perfectly it never was a sound bik giving that was negative or it was was always a um it was always poignant and you could take something away from it in real life drink beer chill like hip understands the culture on both sides uh his wife Miss Terry they they they they they they like teenagers they like in love bro it's siant um I think that's more of a I think that's more of what people more what people don't know about Nick they'll get to see it on game day um he already you know he already gave gave a little bit of a tidbit in a nugget with Bill it was always more guarded privately as well um I don't think Bill did much outside of football like both of these guys devoted their life to football I don't think think bill paid attention to much more outside of football other than boxing other than boxing in the same gym with L Cool J um but no man it I think the personalities are completely different coaching Styles very similar um Bill seemed and and too like we gota I gotta preface it by saying Nick was dealing with 17 through 19 right bill had rosters of 20 through 35 um Bill actually as he as he got older and I had him in Dallas I think he foundationally football-wise I think he's the reason while I was able to be a pro for so long but I think he refused to adapt to the new athlete um and man it happens like you you you have principles and you have a foundation of the way you do things and you've had success doing it so you don't think you ever deviate away from that um but could you imagine Bill Parcels in a locker room while somebody on IG live no you know say youve been dealt with that and was able to because he had to connect with a a younger audience but as far as his team um but I think it was more about Bill just bill was just a football guy man yeah I look you played for Nick I was lucky enough to interview him a million times yeah and get some time with him all the years at ESPN and everything and I just would always hear like oh he's just like bich and bich was like no they're not I was like they're not they're not and you know it's rare but when sa would let you in and you know the adaption part of it too is what I love because I remember when everything was changing really quickly with the way offenses were being run and the way the clock was running and I remember Nick giving that press conference just basically warning everybody to be like is this what you want it to be like is this what you want football to be like okay and somebody else with his resume at his age is far less likely than him to say okay fine this is what we're doing now fine we'll do it we'll do it and uh I'm gonna keep winning and then he hired laye kein yeah who who who ran a great offense and probably Nick couldn't get him out of there quick enough out that fast though yeah hey this is a good this is a good transition then because you know as everybody knows as an LSU guy um I have the hardest time with the rookie quarterbacks and Jaden Jaden's a little bit like burrow you know Burrow's first year at LSU it was okay there's some stability at the position and then it's being the quarterback of one of the greatest runs we've ever seen for a single season in college football history um very similar to what Jaden did from his first year in Baton rou to what we saw last year I mean that was a leap that I didn't expect the same way I didn't expect from burrow what do you expect from him in his rookie season I think jayon is gonna be phenomenal and the reason why we starting to see this right a lot is you remember and you did it for a long time covering it you remember when that jump from the NFL in the type of play was so drastically different than College yeah and quarterbacks had to know three and five step drops they played from under Center so much it was still a run heavy league so a lot of it was play action um dudes wasn't as big and physical and fast right well big but not this fast and physical and and and More Space the game now is basketball on grass we saw last night like it it is it is quick hitters is quarterback's being athletic and mobile is having a really good deep ball when you want to push the ball down the field um but the game is being played within the pocket technically but it's not like when I played against pton and Tom and Breeze I knew where they were gonna be they just were so quick with getting the ball out and understanding coverage and and and moving the chains methodically bro these dudes explosive now like these dudes these dudes have a third and 15 and they pick up 40 yards without throwing the ball um so I think the game his game just translates one thing that a lot of people don't get burrow enough credit for burrow is a athletic quarterback bro like so when you my people have been trying to say it I'm telling you man when you look across the leag I saw Joe make so many plays with his legs we talk about that 2019 season and because Jamar Chase and Justin Jefferson and so many good players were on that team bro I don't know if people realize how many clutch plays Joe made with his legs that year to to win games and extend plays but that's these these quarterbacks are coming in now with all recall it's all recall it's all like oh I know that coverage I I played out the shotgun I no this type of athlete I know the space that's going to be created before we even snap the ball um and last but not least I'm faster than you so I think it's gonna translate yeah I was watching I don't know if you as a former defensive lineman had the same level of sympathy I had for the Chiefs pass rush on those last couple drives but like look Chris Jones now that Donald's gone there's not much of a conversation about the interior guy even though he was lining up on the edge Ed quite a bit last night for him it was it was you could just see like laid out of the out of a stance and I'm not even talking about just but just and then to add in hey you're tired hey it's the Thursday game it's week one you can think your conditioning is good it's not and now even when you think like even when you're fresh and you think you have an angle on Lamar you don't have it like I saw guys going let me just make it look like I got some penetration Y and then yeah you know hopefully these linebackers clean this stuff up you hoping you you hoping you can funnel or you hoping you get lucky and he makes a mistake um it's the same thing with Pat though like I hate to be the Grinch it's so hard to play defense now man like and I know people hate when we say it it's like last night for example I think Jawan tayor was all was was false start I think he false started 14 times in the game um and I don't I can't figure by the way I watch it so much now because how absurd it was last year that I look for it they let him lean back dude it's almost like they feel bad he starts before the ball moves he doesn't take his kick step before the ball moves he starts leaning before the ball when I was in the NFL as soon as we saw that hitch it was time to go they would call us off sides Demarcus Wear would never be able to rush the pal against him um I love Taylor on one of the false starts where he patted his chest like hey that's on me we're like no kidding no kidding bro like the one that they caught you right um but I think it's it's it's just so difficult man because one the rules obviously but you also deal with so much space we like I sound so old but I I mean it was 24 I've been out The League 10 years now 11 years um I think you sound like a defensive player before you sound old to your credit I mean we play but we played in a phone booth bro like I enjoyed playing games like games Derrik Henry played like whereas like you you you manto man you you win your block you defeat your block you make a tackle dude we got reverses with dudes running 42s we got receivers like Tyreek Hill who runs a 3940 and you can't touch him after five yards like bro that's damn near impossible to to deal with so I think a lot of it is it's more exciting I mean obviously it's more exciting the game is the game is at an all-time high with with viewership and people that's interested in the game more relatable because points are relatable but I just think now with the talent of these guys coupled with how you have to play it's difficult man I want to Pivot this into some college ball just because you know how much we we both love talking about it um who did you have a title game pick did you have to actually do an official one so I don't want to put you on the spot here but I'm sure you have some thoughts Georgia Over Georgia Georgia um I could see Texas and Sark getting there I like their defensive line a lot I think even with the losses to the NFL you still like their D line yeah I still like their D line I think they he's recruited well over there um I still don't I I I still don't root out Michigan this will be a great test this week Ohio State obviously with the talent that they have I mean The Usual Suspects a dark horse for me I don't listen man I know they beat us I think USC is good okay so I was at the game and I I left the stadium going I think both these teams are good yeah um now and we get 12 right we get 12 of them in there yeah and you know on the LSU side if we want to start there like I didn't really have a lot of concerns with nus Meer like from everything you had heard I was like I think he's going to be good you know I don't think he's going to win the Heisman like these guys you could see that Lacy last year was going to be a stud once the other guys were gone so even though you lose to first rounders we know the offensive line it is weird though when you think about LSU and you're like okay with this line and then Caleb at running back even though Emory the bad news there you're you're like how come they can't just churn out these these short yardage things like what what why is that not in their DNA anymore because it was funny because I was talking with some LSU fans and one guy said like to ever think like even when we weren't good we knew we'd have a great defensive line and we'd be able to run the football and now I think the corners still could be a bit of an issue but it may actually be like I didn't leave there going oh LSU was screwed I I'm with you I thought it was a really it was a testament to Moss a quarterback yeah all their Playmakers their defense you know stepping up when they needed to um I was impressed I was impressed with them but I'm not like I was impressed too I was you know obviously I'm going be more critical of LSU but I was impressed with USC um especially The Playmakers um they got the ball out to everybody man everybody we we saw the balls being spread around Hudson making phenomenal catches clutch catch at the end of the game Moss put it right in the it was a cover two he put it right in the in the hole between the safety and the corner um um USC made more plays man that's what it ball down to and then too we had our cornerback play for for a school that has been known to have dudes like top five dudes at those positions it it feels like we've not feels like we have regressed um they'll get better but it's the past interferences were devastating um but again you I thought it was two good football teams playing against each other um and I think that's I think that's gonna be a lot of college football this year outside of the top the you know the Georgia and the Texas and Bama probably still gonna be in that conversation I'm super interested in that situation um but yeah not D not going to be in the conversation oh yeah so you're already done with Clemson bro that sounds like a defiant bro we need to have a conversation um I feel bad for dbo let me say that he's you just talked about when we were talking about saving that the the the ability to evolve right and you have principles and you have a foundation as a head coach you have this belief system that things should be done a certain way but it's that's over it's over in the way he thinks that you can build a football team um it may come back based on NCAA rules or whatever agreements that people make but you're not taking a freshman and grooming him until he's a sophomore junr and winning championships like that you're not and I don't think I think because of the president that dbo said at Clemson by moving them into the national conversation consistently is more pressure for him because we think of that program as a certain way um can you be solid and win some games yeah absolutely but he set a president of championships and talent-wise I don't see it bro I know it was Chattanooga and Tennessee just put a huge huge number up on them and yeah you know when we talk about Nico a am malava it's it's this conversation that started with an nil deal and then we get to see the bowl game but man if there was ever like hey who looks like he's playing seven on seven on Saturdays he is the the poster child for I mean again it's not great competition but my God watching the highlights from that game from Nico were just absurd and it makes me think you know Tennessee is in the conversation yeah we we can take some Tennessee is in the conversation and we can take look man I always say this you're supposed to look good against teams that are inferior right we deal with that in college where you you know that they don't have a the the talent that's close or whatever Tennessee did what they were supposed to do um and that's always the you know you can make a case for well it's a different set of DBS it's a different D line all of that matters absolutely but but certain things translate like how beautiful the ball is coming out of his hand the timing in which they play with the fact that he's in a hypo offense those things translate um I'm interested to see them and then too as the season goes along Old Miss as well Old Miss high powerered explosive Lane obviously one of the best Minds in offensive football I you know college is in a good place because College you you almost can't tell the difference in college and Pros now yeah and I think that speaks a lot to some of the stuff you were talking about especially watching last night's game like why not make it easier for these quarterbacks even though the hit rate still isn't there yet okay last thing before we let you go um I don't want to get the message boards on fire here but what is it like when your son is being recruited he's a top recruit in basketball I think I saw the offer from Texas I'd imagine you know with your Texas history but also a son of Baton Rouge yeah like how much does it suck for the recruiters to have to recruit somebody who is the son of somebody like you and and and his mom my wife right I just it's tough we sift through the [ __ ] um and two like it's a new era of recruiting there's money involved there's cars involved there okay has has anyone ever said because you've done well in your career maybe your son doesn't need enough no because I imagine well I don't know listen no I'm telling you it so it's it's it's funny because you know my son is 15 68 right really good basketball player my wife was the seventh overall pick in the WNBA I played in the NFL I was a high level basketball player coming out of high school as well um he is so much more talented than we were at our age and obviously we wasn't 68 um but the way that college basketball is is now but is she is is your wife as tall as you are no she's 6'2 I'm 6'5 all right all right sorry I didn't want to some of these pictures here maybe they're heels yeah heels we in her heels I feel weird um because we out uh but again like and so R but my oldest daughter we've dealt with her being the number one volleyball player in the country for the last three years and she's going to Texas to play volleyball so for him it's just a different animal because it's agents and shoot people and like he's he's he's he just got invited to USA uh junior National mini camps which get you in the USA system it gets like NBA Scout to be at he's going to Camp John Lucas you know I'm sure you know who John Lucas is but um John Lucas putting on a big camp in Houston where it' be NBA Scouts like it's just it's it's a whirlwind of things that's happened in super fast Paul B and cter just ranked him 20th in the country on ESPN ranking he's ninth in the country on Rivals ranking um so they are you know how it goes man like these kids are now being followed every day they coach is showing up the practice they and being 15 that's a lot to manage difference is again two parents that were Pros a sister that went through a a crazy recruiting situation and now he's in the middle of it and he has some time left um but the thing about the kid man he just wants to hoop he's a really good student um all he want to do is hoop eat and chill um and and he works his ass off which which me and his mama tells him all the time like it it don't matter what you doing if you ain't working well little did your wife know that when she transferred to LSU you guys would be starting a Spears athlete Factory you know couple decades later actually actually actually it is on her like my my girlfriend prior to her was short and when she first saw her she was like I saved your life so I caught all three my 11 year old uh my my 11y old daughter is the best athlete out of the out of the older two um she's going she's a volleyball player as well but um they my little insurance policies well it looks like it looks like the premiums a little bit lower than Maybe maybe for you than everybody else and look you and Aisha should be incredibly proud too man we man we're proud of him man look check out swagu his podcast Wednesdays Fridays Just Launch and every day on NFL live thanks Mar you're gonna come on before we go you gonna come you know you're my right much love man enjoy that sunshine and them them waves and them seagulls and [ __ ] howling back there and you make it out to LA for one of the one of the Monday nighters you you let me know right down room you got in there we got one for you not as many as you think we try to maximize the entertainment dis the entertainment space all right yeah that kitchen looks very nice back there ain't no cooking going on we'll get some of that fish fry going over here I got you I'mma see you some your way all right B I'll take care [Music] bro Chad milman is an enjoyable guest and I consider bit of a friend and he joins us now and this all goes back to An Origin conversation of a couple months ago where I said Chad this gambling thing is really tough and I dabbled when I was younger quite a bit and luckily never got too bad but now that I'm doing it constantly I would like to get better at it and I would like the audience to become more informed so Chad milman who's the chief content officer of the Action Network also a co-founder joins us now and I guess jump jump in wherever you want the call I think was earlier this summer and I said I want to come up with a three-way look at NFL standing we still already do the alliance for college football so I wanted to put together like my gut reaction from watching a million games which is probably the worst way to go um there's some public money fading stuff that we can explore and then I don't want to call it the sharp money because I'm not going to pretend that I'm gonna have access to all of this great information but maybe put together three picks like that every single week keep a standing of it and then have Chad kind of check in with us throughout the season a couple times if he's willing to in his busy schedule so that's how the conversation started and here we are before week one of the NFL season so what's up how you doing brother I listen I'm excited to do it uh I love checking in with you I'm excited to have the conversation you tend to think about this in a way that is different than I think a lot of people in media who are taking in sports betting think about it there's a there's a handful of people who want to think about it more deeply then here's the winner here's the loser you're trying to get better at it our good friend Colin coward does the same thing trying to take the knowledge in and figure out how you can put it out because it is not easy it is super hard and a couple of things you mentioned off the top where is the public money who is the sharp money those things are good sort of tent Poes but they are also rapidly changing because so many more people are in sports betting so it's not as simple as fade the public bet with the sharps it's just it's getting harder so it's getting harder is is what you're like I know that people can go over historical points of the gambling timeline and say they hadn't adjusted for this yet right this was this was a market that wasn't quite discovered and once it is discovered and it's working it's like you don't want to tell anybody on top of everything else your history with with trying to pick the right side um what's the briefest way you can share that with the audience well my my history with trying to pick the right side started with I don't know anything about picking the right side and I was mostly interested and you being listen you and I have done segments together for a long time going back to ESPN and we have talked about how you could critique when I was the Ator chief of the magazine and I'd come on with you and Scott on ESPN and and you would you could come after me for lines in a story that you would only know were kind of crap lines if you were in the middle of editing the story or reading really closely so I say that to set up that I wasn't getting into sports betting to try to figure out the right side I got into it because I like the characters I like the psychology I like the fact that there is this massive industry that was affecting all of our fandom in at the time nobody was really talking about and so I ended up writing this book called the odds 20s something years ago where I was tracking these guys who bet on Sports for living and these bookmakers in Vegas and that's really how I got into it and what was fascinating to me other than the narrative which was great for these guys but also the decisions that were being made by the professional betters that completely went against what you would consider to be sort of the defined logic of a fan and so that's where it started to spin for me okay the public money is the opposite of where you want to be you want to be tracked how the lines are moving in relation to where that money is going where those preponderance of betting tickets are and to me that emerged into sort of a theme where I could try to thread the needle on what was really interesting and fascinating ultimately that is what led to doing more and more of ESPN and then leaving ESPN to work with a company called the churner group to launch action which you know we did about six years ago right and you hit it at the perfect time um which I I think was some really smart people that already had a background in the world going okay this stuff is going to explode and there's going to be all sorts of opportunity and you were ahead of the market on it all right so the reason why I do love the Action Network and I check in on it every week when I'm trying to put together these picks and this goes back to when Vin p and I were doing the show together he obviously is super into it he was in in a time where there was still stigma around it I remember him giving out a side I think on Sports Center and they called him into the principal's office feel like you're not supposed to do that look it's just the way the world was and now everybody doesn't care anymore because of the money that's involved so when he would give out his strategies which was essentially fading the public and it worked he won more than he lost I I sat there every week next to him for those six years he was terrific at it for somebody having to give out picks on a show the irony of it was that every time he gave out those picks it would be the worst team it would be the worst number like if Arizona was terrible and you're thinking okay well they have to be like an eight-point dog here it'd be the stinkiest version of number so it' be six and a half and you're thinking like how can that happen and we didn't have access to all the public money part of it so when I look at like the public money bets for week one in the NFL it looks like the biggest public play right now is the Steelers plus three and a half at Atlanta was 71% of the money coming in if you don't know like and it's somebody who watches a lot knowing how hard it is going if I'm going to keep track of the supposed sharp info I may or may not be able to get my hands on Fading the public like I'm coming in third I'm probably going to come in third here but what happened with the public money last year if you took that stretch if you went with the public last year you were a winner it was the first time Action Network has a database that tracks literally millions of points of data for betting across a wide array from from systems you know how do teams do when they are three-point favorites on the road coming off a loss playing against a team that won all that kind of stuff but we've also just been tracking in general how does the public do going back to 2003 we've never seen a year where the public won at 53% or more 53% for those who don't know you got to pay a commission What's called the BG on any kind of bet normally it's minus 110 normally it's a 10% commission you want to win $100 on your bet you got to bet $110 and hope that you win right so you so over the course of a season you have to win 53% of the time in order to reap a profit last year the public won 53% of the time if you bet with the public $100 you would have won ,000 that's essentially what that is saying that's never happened before Ryan and what that is indicative of is say the last six years and this has been a pretty common theme in the sports betting Community the last six years since it became legal there are so many more betters in the market and there so many more what we call outs right you can bet at DraftKings you can bet at FanDuel you can bet a bet MGM you bet in Vegas and and like it is becoming easier for people to put money into the market and get better at this there is a democratization of data you have access to so much more information that makes you feel smarter and more people giving it out like action and you and everyone at the ringer and so and FanDuel and fand FanDuel right so like it exactly so it's become a little bit easier to be smart and sharp which means professional betters have to adjust last year the public won what will be interesting this year is is there a a regression there's always a regression in betting so all of a sudden will it go back to the days where betting uh betting against the public is the way to go okay of and I I cannot emphasize this enough in me trying to figure out like hey see I I feel like I'm over stating and in the gambling world like hear the guys trying to like give out a pick the right side the the unpopular thing on Friday so I cannot emphasize how much I am not trying to oversell that part of it I was just trying to figure out a way to be like every now and then you'd hear from somebody in Vegas they'd be like yeah what you guys came in on the Lions this week you know like back when the Lions wasn't uh the popular play in the NFC like they are this year what do you have anything in your world that's like this is actually what the smarter guys are doing whether it's a week one pick or it's a a season long total well for the week one picks I got a whole Litany of picks right but one of the things that we look at now and you and I have talked about this the factor of luck in these games Randomness in these games just can't be discounted and that is something that we have been trying to collect say the last two or three years in something that we call the luck rankings right and it basically takes all these random factors and tries to account for what would the winning percentage expectation be for a particular team in a game if you would eliminated these luck factors if you're just taking the Baseline stats right and the flip side is what should their expectation for losing have been if they hadn't gotten lucky so we've been collecting this data for the past three or four years we have a couple of brilliant uh data analysts who look at this stuff and what's fascinating and this has become a real sort of anchor for us is to look at these to try to find the signal and the noise for lack of a better term and determine which teams are lucky and how do you bet on that regression for them and which teams have been unlucky and how do you find Value in the market and what you're seeing is that there is actually as much value in that as there is in sort of trying to glean the psychological state of public betters and how they feel about the Cowboys this week yeah I'm glad you said it and I even touched on it too when I talked about replacing the traditional six teams in the playoffs every single year and you know once we have the results we're great with answers we're like oh coaching and the culture there was there was a grit to this team and there was all these things and you'll just go like I don't know their turnover differential was better um you know I know a lot of times yeah and that's kind of it because like sometimes the one score game thing can be your answer um I love it when it's a team that has six wins the previous year they come into camp and they're like you know we we had like eight one score games you're like by the way the entire league has like half of their schedule is is one score games so it's super easy to say in front of the local media horde because you're not really thinking of it it's like the bigger picture of like wait isn't the whole reason why Sunday is so successful is because some of these games even with teams that seem like they're not a match for each other it ends up coming down to this last second field goal attempt like how did that happen again well usually it happens again because of the turnovers but the luck part of it um I think sometimes the one score games can be dismissed like okay this team we don't think they're going to be as good this year because they won all these one- score games but sometimes it's a bit like the great closer in baseball where there's so much Randomness except for the elite of the elites and if it's a really good quarterback I think that has more to do with some of the randomness so when you're looking at your luck ranking and trying to go through like okay this team was extremely unlucky lucky is there anything else that's baked into this that is helpful for us to understand well look it's it's all based on conversions of particular downs and turnovers and calls it's all the things that you look at in a game that make up sort of the scary moments that cost you a bet or win you a BET right there's there's six seven eight nine 10 different factors but if you look at last year like you're talking about one- score games right the Carolina Panthers last year if you if you account for luck and sort of the expectation for them to have won a game they probably should have won a game and a half to two more games than they did their season win total this year started at four and a half slowly but surely through out the off season that line moved up to five it moved up to five and a half because professional betters were way ahead of the market in seeing that wait a second this team had some really bad luck last year and if they can get a little bit better again none of this happens in a vacuum if it's a bad team you kind of make your own bad luck but if it's a really unlucky team and they then layer on some improvements the public perception for that team is still going to be terrible right now if you look at the odds for worst record in the NFL the shortest odds are the Panthers the Patriots the Titans the Giants all of those teams could conceivably be better but they had such bad perception last year that they are of course going to be the teams that have the lowest odds to have the worst record in the NFL the Panthers they got better coaches they vastly improved their offensive line they vastly improved their receiving core you have to believe Dave Canalis when he was in Seattle Gino Smith went from journeyman quarterback to pro bowler when he was in Tampa Bay Baker Mayfield went from joury man quarterback to Leading the Bucks to the playoffs if Bryce young is only a little bit better with a better offensive line better receivers and better Coach this team all of a sudden exceeds its win total significantly so that's why when you take a lot into consideration with all these other factors you get a lot of people looking at the Panthers and saying huh there's a lot of value there yeah I know that I've started years where I went okay who has the lowest win total and then with the randomness of the NFL I was like maybe you're just better off taking the three lowest totals and just playing the season long over on all three of those knowing that it's still kind of hard to lose three out of every four games in the league because of of some of the randomness so you're telling me that Carolina over five and a half wins is something smarter people seem to be on 100% Carolina over five and a half wins and you know heading into week one I know people might hear this after but uh heading into week one Carolina on the road at the Saints professional betters have been betting that right that line was four and a half as of Friday when we're recording this it's down to four and you combine a lot of the the luck factors along with how the rosters have developed what people perceive as a coaching Advantage for the Panthers all of a sudden you start to build a narrative that makes you think oh this could be good but again it goes back to what you said in the beginning a lot of betting it's just gross like I'm in a I'm in a you know a couple different Survivor pools and one of my team names in a Survivor pool is literally just gross like I know there's going to be times where I am sick to my stomach because I'm going to be making really disgusting picks I know that like we're telling the listeners in my podcast the favorites that in week one yeah we're gonna be on the Giants we're GNA be on the Panthers we're going to be on the Colts as home underdogs against the Texans and there's there's good reasons for that but it doesn't make anyone comfortable okay let's dig into the number here and I'm bringing up FanDuel with some of the odds where okay 60 62% of the public money is on the Rams plus four and a half at Detroit so um and I believe it opened uh at the Rams three and a half I may like the Rams okay right so I may like the Rams before I see the number like momentum McVey always seems to figure it out you know everybody's coming in healthy which is a huge part of the Rams deal Detroit has all of these expectations a lot of people's pick to get out of the NFC like what an incredible story that would be I think I'd be more inclined to bet the Rams if we're plus two and a half but when I see it at plus four and a half knowing that everybody's like hey the Rams are pretty good like I'm getting more than a field goal and him like now it scares me so even though the side that I would like maybe my first reaction seeing the number be bigger than I would expect it to be then makes me scared of even picking the game why does that happen why are you scared or why does it why does the line go up like that I can tell you you understand what I'm saying yeah yeah I know why you're scared is because you're a thoughtful person who is wrestling with the Nationwide impact of sports betting's influence on the media we create and how you can communicate that to your fans right look and I've never I've never tried to pretend anything okay like we make more money now because of it okay course and that's that's the reality of what the business is and I'm not going to pretend that that isn't a huge motivation but as I've done it now the last couple years with fandu I'm like well can is there any way I can try to get better at it is there any way I can make the audience understand it a little bit better if we can be doing this all the time and I that's essentially what we're trying to do here uh you're scared in this particular instance forgetting about the existential psychoanalysis is the line opened at three and a half it is now at 4 and a half yet you're seeing all the public money the betting percentages the tickets coming in on the Rams and so one of the sort of nuances as people look at this where they look at FanDuel we have it on action too is you can see the betting percentages that is the total volume of tickets that are coming in that usually represents what the public is doing and then you can see the money percentages money percentages are usually representative of what the professional betters are doing and oftentimes there will be a split and so with this game you are somewhat concerned because you're seeing a lot of the tickets come in on the Rams and yet the line has moved from three and a half to four and a half because professional betters are coming in on the lines and so that is what's concerning you because you probably would want to take the Lions except now the line is so big you've actually lost value and there is an old Axiom in beding that professionals use you want to get the best of the number right and so if the line has gone from three and a half to four and a half there is value lost it's like buying a stock you're you're just not going to make as much money or have as good of a chance to win or profit in the long term if you're not getting the best of the number staying with the Panthers here think you see the opening week and you go okay the Saints aren't great maybe the defense is getting even older which technically it is um but it can't be as bad at Carolina and then you see it not be you know minus 6 and a half it's minus four and you're like that number is just really weird for all the expectations that means the smarter people are looking at this game differently than just your gut reaction of like of course it you know New Orleans is going to pull that one out um when you see a number like that when you see a number that most people would expect to be 6 and a half seven in that weird four range does that motivate you to just step away from step away from the okay I'll tell you exactly what happens number one professional betters have this game lined at about three HomeField advantage in the NFL is generally worth three points which means professional betters think if this was on a neutral field it would be a pick they're giving the Saints the three points because it's on home field the bookmakers made it at for and a half because bookmakers know that the public perception is the Saints have historically been good they have a little bit more public favor than the Panthers even though they have been without Shawn Payton and Drew Brees they have still look it it'd be hard to have less public favor than the Panthers right the the Saints have still been competitive the Panthers the public perception is they are the worst team in the NFL and they have been a joke of a franchise for the past two years and Bryce young looks like a fifth grader who is a human Bobble head when he's playing on the field right but the public isn't taking into account what everyone else who's paying attention all off season are taking into account which is the rosters got better which is Dennis Allen and Derek Carr in their respective categories as coach and quarterback are two of the historically worst against the spread they are not taking into account that this team the optimism for this team surveys of every fan base the Saints have the lowest optimism from their fans that Dennis Allen has the shortest odds to be the first coach fired so the wise guys are still seeing that four and a half and saying oh I'm gonna hit that I'm gonna take it at four and the bookmakers can't go crazy and say it's going to be six because they know that like if they set it at six they are just going to get flooded with tons of big money bets from professional bets and then they're they're going to be lopsided and they can't really afford that so that's how you end up at a number like four and a half or four would you rather bet week one or week five week five you know it's it's nice to have four weeks of data what I really like doing is betting week three because you're still you can still be a week ahead of the market and you get two weeks of Games you start to get a little bit more in terms of tend encies the the enthusiasm for the beginning of the Season hasn't worn off so you still have a lot of people who might still be betting because maybe they won one week and lost another week and so they still have a little bit of money in their pocket and they're not discouraged yet and so they're willing to go into the market and you know bookmakers are going to set lines on certain what we call public teams a little bit higher still um so once you get into week three I think there's a little bit more of an advantage week five all of a sudden you know dumb money for lack of a better term starts to leave the market uh people lose their enthusiasm and lines start to settle a little bit more how often do the smartest gamblers watch the NFL well it depends like everyone's different right there are sort of the analytics leaning betters who don't watch the games they ingest all of the data and all of the play byplay and all the STS from the games they work it through their model their models punch out a number and then they bet almost blindly what they see on the board next week right could be you know the Bears are 4o underdogs against the Packers in Chicago and in that scenario they know they are going to bet the Bears no matter what then there are people who are sort of more naturalistic for lack of a better term and they are certainly creating power ratings and they're looking at different numbers and incorporating them into what their models everyone's got a model now it just used to be you would do it on pen and paper and create your power ratings you know in a three- ring binder and now everyone's doing it in Google Sheets or Microsoft Excel but a lot of people they're they're watching the games they like to see the flow of the games they like to see Tendencies they like to see matchups they like to see who the backup tackle is it's why a lot of Wise Guys watch preseason they want to see who the backup tackle is so if a first string tackle goes out that will have an impact on how people look at game so there's different ways to do it has anyone ever shown you their model and you looked at it and said this is just division you know what's funny uh no one's ever shown me their model they will tell me what's in it but showing me a model would be like me trying to learn Latin you know like it it wouldn't do anything I really you would come on I don't think you like I understand what you're saying is that there maybe is a separation of understanding the math principles behind it but like it wouldn't be I think you'd probably be able to follow the flow of what what they were trying to come up with yeah but it's definitely going to be more than division right because you are waiting certain factors differently and you're making adjustments over the course of the year uh I I don't want to overinflate their Brilliance I mean we do this with every industry and we've especially done it with betters with people in finance people in private Equity where people believe they are leaning into models and algorithms and things that give them a superpower to make decisions and take risk out of the factors in terms of the conversation of how they are making decisions and think that a it's a little bit dangerous because if your your model is still created by a human so no matter how much historical data you're ingesting there are still going to be risk factors um so I could not create a model I would never try to say I could create a model if I looked at a model I would say all right is this the right waiting is this the right way to go I do think it's interesting that just culturally I think that we have always ascribed sort of superhero Supernatural power to people who instinctively know how to predict what's going to happen next and I do think that sort of the model components of this have elevated that because now you think this person is brilliant and they've got an impenetrable formula to winning um which makes people feel I think a little bit too safe about some of the financial decisions they make yeah that's really interesting that you brought that up because I was working on something recently where I was talking about my pursuit of when I got into this I didn't want to be in the media I wanted to work in a front office and I was convinced that there was this lens that was developed that basketball people baseball people that they watched the game through this lens that mere morals couldn't understand and one of my favorite things about getting older and enough life experience and even though I've been in sports like you're just open to a bunch of different Industries is that there's like two different times of people here one person wants you to believe that what they have developed is so incredibly special and so unobtainable because it makes themselves feel better about what they've accomplished right then there's the other person that's like yeah you just do it long enough you start to figure some [ __ ] out and that's what I learned I think more so with basketball is that I was convinced there was way that you had to learn how to watch that you couldn't understand until you finally accomplished it that everybody was in charge of rosters like they all had this secret they all shared this secret way and then the reality is is if you spend decades watching this one thing over and over and over again you would hope you would pick it up in the same way with game like if you're putting years if this is your priority it it may not be some magical formula that that the public could never comprehend it's just that you have to it you know it kind of defaults back to that 10,000 hour thing here again but when it there's just such a separation of understanding is you're just like I can't I can't fathom like how do these guys they're like I'll go to a book I'll watch everybody in there and I'll think what are they doing you know what is it and then you realize even the smartest guys the margins are just like they're so disciplined they know when they see a bad number they're on it you know they're adjusting essentially money units being like okay this is a much bigger play you know I'm not sitting there trying to hammer this and and go seven and three on 10 games every single week but um yeah that's something that I feel like I've I've discovered in my own journey of of trying to understand Industries I didn't think I understood in the beginning a lot what happens is yeah you develop a natural instinct for what you think is going to work and you and I both experienced this just as members of the media and people who create contact where oh yeah this segment I totally get it I know why it's going to work I know what makes sense I know why it's going to resonate with people I don't need to test it I don't need to do the market research I just get it I know when we start something new at action or when we started something new at ESPN I knew if it was going to resonate or if it wasn't going to resonate and that's not because there was a ton of data behind it that we did for that specific segment show article new project whatever it's because we had done so many of these things before you sort of naturally get it when it comes to betting what's really interesting is you just said you're not going to you know go seven and three the margin is that thin like I just said you win 53% of the time as a better you're one of the best in the world which also means you're losing 47% of the time and that's where a lot of these things become complicated for people who are new to betting for people like you for people like me who are trying to communicate this and it can become real conflicting and and me and my co-host on the favorites just talked about this yesterday early in the season week one week two you lean into Trends a little bit more because you don't have Tendencies you don't have what you've seen on the field yet you can't sort of play against public perception based on what's really happened so there are these trends like divisional dogs the last 10 years cover at a 71% clip against the spread or dogs between one and five and a half points the last 10 years cover at a 60% clip or favorites between one and three and a half points do not cover uh Ed a that's why I love I love I love the game one and NBA playoffs like who came off the series in a game seven and then the team that the team that W game seven loses game one against the spread like it was an overwhelming number of course so you're right like but then you have last night with Lamar Jackson you're like he's 121 in one all time as a dog against spread that number was so absurd it would scare me to be like well I'm just gonna be late I'll just be like yeah I can't I he's not going to go 13 but here's the thing with with those numbers the other side of it is you win four of those 10 bets you win six if you play the trend but you win four if you don't play the trend so the idea is you're playing the trend and like we will give away picks and we will go through our logic and we're really detailed and we try to be analytical and we try to explain to people the pluses and the minuses and why we're making these decisions but we also make these decisions every single week right we are grinding it out over the course of a season so we can win 15 units 20 units and you play those consistency over time you're going to consistently over time you're going to win those bets but in a one week sample size you might not and that's the challenge I think you know and something that you grapple with certainly something we grapple with as we are communicating this to users is who are especially new to this we're not a clown show here like we're not telling you and like Carnival barkers saying hey you got to bet it this way this week like we don't give away locks we're just telling you what the percentages are and if you do that right over time you're GNA find positive Roi like that 900 number you called desperate one weekend in college and the guy never stops calling you that 900 number he's got a recording that is giving away bets saying that he's winning on these but if you call the same number at a different time he's got the other side like oh I know it was like whatever the pitch was even if you were so uneducated you'd be like this doesn't make any like why are you calling me why are you calling me if you're seven and0 and one in the last eight Monday nighters why aren't you retire why aren't you putting everything you have on this but I'll tell you you get some roommates there at 18 19 they're like this guy's on fire we got we got sometimes in the simplest form sometimes it is just fun I was traveling it was a UFC main event I paid a cover charge to go into a place just to watch it have a couple beers and I went you know what I'm just gonna bet the fight because it's going to be a little bit more fun and sometimes that's kind of lost in the 30 minutes that we're sitting here trying to dissect this okay supposed to be fun it's only supposed to be fun right um promote the podcast and then I have another quick followup uh everyone should listen to the favorites podcast me my co-host professional better Simon Hunter by the way um and we go through Tuesday Thursday Sunday we review the games that we bet and then preview the early lines for the games coming up in the following week right now we are doing a $100,000 free to playay pro football pick them contest sign up for free get a chance to win uh a cash pool of $100,000 first place gets 40 second place 10 five picks a week you can drop your first your your two worst weeks so if you hear this after week one you still got a chance to sign up favorites. action network.com go sign up and listen to the favorites podcast thank you okay give me give me the smart pick this week then for the audience well a after we've gone through and we don't give away pigs and we're not carnal for barkers no but I need one for the exercise I need you can't be you know I can't be bugging you every week I will I will say this I will say I I am definitely on the Panthers 100% um I I am definitely on the Colts 100% I will be on the Giants these are disgusting terrible gross things but a game that I do like you talked about the Rams and the Lions I love the Lions and like I don't want to this is this is what we all grapple with I want to fade the Lions I think they're too overhyped I think that public perception is making everyone believe they are a Super Bowl team which they could be but it makes everyone more excited to bet them but a lot of betters think about it from the inside out right fundamentals how good are you on the offensive and defensive line forget about the fact that Dan Campbell is the best the best coach against the spread the past five years that that Jared gof is literally undefeated in week one as a quarter back or that he's 25- n in indoor games as a quarterback uh against the spread right and when I say undefeated I mean undefeated against the spread these the L's offensive and defensive line are top five in the league and that is fundamentally sound especially when you're going up against a defensive line that is without Aaron Donald and trying to figure out how to plug those gaps even though they had really good draft picks the past couple years in an offensive line that is still struggling you're getting a really good team on a really fast track with great talent at home in perfect conditions so I did bet the liines and I'm gonna be sweating it on Sunday night okay but it sounds like we're going Panthers is our submission here and if we were going public money public bets again being two different things it seems like most of the public money is on Pittsburgh in Atlanta for week one but then the public betting number actually is different on that so should we go money or betting uh go with money on that and the Steelers are a really interesting one too right like the Steelers Mike Tomlin the past 20 years not just best coach against the spread as an underdog best coach winning outright as an underdog when this team has TJ Watt on the field they are a much different team than when they don't so I think I give the benefit of the doubt to the Steelers and a coach who's been there for a while versus a coach in his first year with a quarterback who's coming off in Achilles teer considering Pittsburgh 71% of the public money on this one um that means the fade the public play is Atlanta minus three and a half and I'm just gonna go with gut week one guy stuff I'm gonna go Giants plus the point and a half at home against Minnesota so your gut tell you that just think it's such a garbage number weird game people like darnold probably more than they should um people are super down on the Giants at home week one why not I just thought it was like the ugliest thing I could see this week by the way you basically just did exactly what professional betters do well you know like I said try to get better this summer you lift all those weights for a reason gains everyday gains hey no one who was Stronger ever was mad they were stronger um look man this was a lot of fun thanks for taking the time to do this and and hopefully we can check back in and check our work and see how we're doing a couple times this season if you're cool with it always brother all right he's the best Chad know the email address for submissions get them in you get something a little different we're open to it lifeadvice rrmail.com checking in with the gang how is everybody pretty good Friday dude a Friday beer sa for Kyle yeah you send me something free it's coming it's it's it will be worn I'm also wearing the rillo hat that I've gotten a lot of requests from people to like you know either a donation to a charity or just straight up like how much do you want for or you're looking to donate some stuff I don't know what I'm going to do with it yet I feel like I gotta I feel like I got to hold on to them I don't know if I could just start giving these away they might be waiting another 10 years who knows it could triple in price donation to charity is that like the the 2008 Patriot Super Bowl T-shirts like what are we talking about what kind of what kind of donation like just the proceeds that you from s okay right I'm not just trying to pocket like the money from fans like you know donate to a charity but I don't know I don't feel I don't feel I'm not gonna start you know pawning off stuff that's you know basically Ryan's name image and likeness over here um things are fine things are fine if you want to sell something I don't want to sell anything I don't want to be that guy but I'm holding on to it I'm gonna hold on to the stuff maybe talk to me another couple years would if somebody said I'll give you $500 for that hat you're selling the Hat done I feel like I have integrity I wouldn't I'll get it signed by Ryan yeah I don't I mean what's the back out of 450 I don't think I'm gonna sell them I don't have like I have like five and I don't know I don't you know it's gonna hold for now see what happens 500s out don't enough we talked about we talked about like doing some sort of like here's the popery of all the leftover stuff and then somebody said something like how great would it be if you hung on to it and your grandchildren got to see it we go well [ __ ] I'm not grandchildren gonna pick up the pace here bud yeah yeah like hi I'm Not That Into You but I have all these shirts yep and I want to start a family and I've got a heart out how do you feel about separate houses not because I'm cheat on you but because I just need be by myself a lot let's get started o June busy most nights yeah do you want to go to Sant trpe in July early August I'm your guy take the boat out every now and then no problem if you want to not have to talk to me for a really long time I can also provide that all right let's uh let's get to it speaking of boats we had a boat guy chime in um who who just got upset a little bit about a person complaining about their parents later in life purchases especially boats is ridiculous it's something he is doing to make sure you all want to be around and spend time with them as a family my dad has boats in three states boat guy alert six of them six boats in three states Captain's a Caribbean one if you think your dad's boats are pointless you don't like fun I think our emailers coming at this from a very specific angle your dad's a boat captain in the Caribbean which is one of my fallback plans right so that like that's that's an entirely like different he also signed it first made out which I respect the hell out of I think the emailer here is right but specific to the inventory lineup that we had from the previous emailer it sounds like his dad also likes just buying the stuff quite a bit but yeah the goal is to make sure everybody's around a little bit maybe our previous emailer was just obset about a lack of storage you know he's looking at it the the square footage part of it being like I'm losing square footage by the season here um six boats in three states that guy really likes boating but again if he's actually captaining boats captaining excuse me boats in the Caribbean like I would never buy get another one good for you camaran on sale that's what I've been hearing I think that was kind of baked into our answer was like that's why we're like you know we're talking you know we're using the kid gloves and we quote unquote confront the dad about this because we're like he probably does have he probably does thinking like it's like parents talking about oh maybe maybe we'll get a lake house now that our kids are all growing up and you know my my dad's kicking it around but he's like not a money spender so it's just the idea of getting a lake house but then we're you know we gotta go we can't be like why are you buying a lake housee he's like I want you guys to hang out with us so I think that's why we kind of were like you know approach it nicely uh because we we understand okay question for you did we do this one from the girlfriend about the boyfriend's phone it's not nearly specific enough for me to remember something let's read it I I remember reading it when it was sent to me and then flagging it and thinking okay because it's kind of it's kind of sucks I don't really think there's much debate on this one but we like to talk to the female women that chime in so hey guys I've been listening to life advice for a year plus now and since my boyfriend uh boyfriend Turned Me Out on the podcast I have a question I think is best answered by men and the people that don't know me or my boyfriend um boyfriend knows us though so this could get a little dicey uh I think it's vague enough though you guys would remember I don't know why I have like a slight August and September Gap I like forg got an NFL hug coach the other day I was like hey you need to tighten your [ __ ] up all right we've been together for about three years and are currently living together as well relationship is normal wait three years and living together relationship is normally uh normal healthy loving relationship with regular ups and downs one thing's been bothering me lately and that's I feel like he doesn't want me to see his phone and is weird about me going on it uh oh it's not often that I try to see his phone or go on it but when I do he acts strange and wants to take it from me quickly something silly like me putting an addess at a GPS or looking at a song on Spotify seems to make make him nervous I know the phones are very personal but should I be worried short answer yes that's a simple one yeah I'm not sure how to talk to about it because it makes me seem super insecure and that's never a good look any advice or thoughts would be much appreciated love the Pod you guys are great you're uh this isn't good it's not good it doesn't make any sense I mean some guys are just so worried about being that guy that they'll just hand you the phone to put in the song to plug in the address going like what are the chances that I'm actually going to get busted on maybe some kind of conversation that having look my phone to take the picture it's got a better camera yeah right like people come over your place and you're like no why don't you hook up to the Bluetooth pick whatever song you want um look I'm going to tell you that uh was seeing someone got back together first lunch date on the rekindling of The Vibes she immediately turned the phone over on the table and I went this isn't going to be good and it didn't work out we were always a face up phone couple and then it was I'm turning it over and I've never gone through someone else's phone I think it's like one of the ultimate [ __ ] betrayals lame yeah I think it's the lamest [ __ ] thing you can do um especially if you're not like getting married to the person you know uh but you know what else is lame is being weird about your girlfriend touching your phone who lives with you that's also pretty now look yeah look you want to just play out some scenarios maybe he just complains about you a lot probably not what you were hoping to hear but maybe that's it um maybe he texts inappropriate jokes with his buddies and that's the only thing maybe he is a fraud financially and you don't know it yet and he doesn't want to see the each trade thing where it's like is that all the numbers added up or is that each account like what's going on like I thought you said you had done well wait you have you have 12 shares of Nvidia so um which would be a nice little vacation you're doing the math on it I I don't know how to tell you this other than this is super alarming and it's it's be one thing if it's like hey we're 6 months Andy doesn't want to see the phone maybe there's maybe there's a bit of a hangover bit of the relationship where he's still talking to somebody from his past but it's not like the really bad stuff where it's clear he's keeping on this sexual relationship through texting I just think that it's an awful awful sign that he has that much anxiety about it and you live with him so I wouldn't go through the phone okay but you have to you have to at some point maybe you just set it up that way maybe it's the drive back after something but you you have to stop thinking about this because that's not normal behavior of somebody that you're expecting to marry all right yeah I think you're I don't really have anything else to say but to your point I thought that sometimes to turn the phone over was sort of like I'm not going to even glance at it while you're telling me this work story or something like I thought it was kind of respectful but I think you're right I think that's a nice scenario except when you were always phones facing up couple okay so like you're just getting back together with somebody it's a little tense you're not really sure who has the upper H the upper hand don't know why I was going toon word that way but uh Europe I don't really understand about the phone up thing phone down thing it wouldn't really bother me I unless you're one of those people like do you have the thing where it says the text you know it's like a preview of what the text is so you can see what the actual you know F around he wouldn't have that say like so and so texted you because like I don't know let's not get bogged down on what that is okay that was very specific to me was a very long time ago I knew the difference okay I knew the difference I knew it was a bad sign I just was like we're [ __ ] like knew it was dead yeah and soon thereafter it did not work I wonder sometimes so this is much more serious this right this is a really this is a really big deal because the emailer here feels the shitty about and think about where her head is at again we can only hear her side of the story but based on this she's such a sweet person that she has more anxiety about actually figuring out a way to ask about this as opposed to assuming all the worst which now she's going to do after listening to this email but I just think it's I don't what's the other side of this like hey maybe maybe it's one of those weird don't worry about it things maybe he's talking about getting you an engagement ring with his sister or whatever you know but yeah right cudy you know what's weird about you know what I hate the most about this is the emailer is seems like a a good nice person who's trying to like not be bad about it not you know she's saying oh you know I don't want to be you know act like I'm going through the stuff or being too overbearing when it's totally within your right to be like dude why you being so weird with your phone like you're being weird with your phone like clearly you've noticed it it is a weird act and she's like trying to make excuses for why she shouldn't think it's weird or shouldn't act upon or ask him about it when it's totally normal to be like why you being weird with your phone and so I I I person I mean you know again like what what what's the end game here like are you willing to you know ask a question that you don't want to know the answer to um because if you start kind of barking up that tree maybe some stuff that you're not going to like it's going to come out but I'd want to know and I think it's totally within your right to be like what's going on here you've been be you've been weird with your phone for however many months and it's not normal yeah I think the observation I think you're I think you nailed it where it's like just the straight up observation uh announcement like hey I'm just noticing you're being sketchy all the time now and uh you're the person I'm with the most and you're sketchy all the time because your phone's always on you so uh I think that's I think that's perfectly within your right to say it's all on the table you're not snooping you don't have to you know feel bad about that stuff the one thing I was wondering is like maybe like you know some kids like weren't allowed to have TVs in their house or something like that and like you know my brother had a girlfriend like that she'd come over and like it was just like TV time at our house because like she were like wait so you go home and your parents just said that we don't do TV it's not allowed and it's like you know the mid 2000s or something maybe this was a guy whose like parents was like you can have a cell phone but I'm checking it every day and maybe he's like got PTSD from it just because he's a listener I want it to not be the worst thing but there's a ton of smoke here so there's probably fire but uh just thought maybe he's maybe he had a weird upbringing and his parents were like you know maybe he didn't have a door on his bedroom and they were checking his checking his phone and check it as amim every uh every day I don't know it's making you feel this way okay so that's ultimately on him and I think sir's advice was actually the best advice is that you need to figure out a way the advice is figure out a way to get to that entry point it sounds like he's so weird about it so often there's going to be plenty of opportunities maybe it's not on the ride up to San Francisco on a three-day weekend stopping in Wine Country um maybe it is the next time you're at the house you're both there and you're just like okay hey you're being weird about this again and you just start it that way be like what what is the issue with you and the phone and you're gonna if you know him this well and you've been dating with three years you've been living with him you're gonna you're probably gonna be able to figure out if he's full of [ __ ] or not you know and the good news is that you know you live together so it's not like when you're together you're like doing something it's not like H you had to do this on the way to the wine bar what the hell H but like you know you guys are guys are home all the time so there's there's a lot of entry points there okay a lot of entry points what else do we have here okay moving cross country 62 180 Jeff Hornes from my eighth grade Squad I'll get right to it my wife and I just had our first child congrats eight-month-old daughter who's incredible no dad's strength we're holding her yet cudy so we're tracking that where were you on that again you know now that she's about 27 is pounds now and so it's it's not it wasn't when she was a baby it's really more now that she's like a toddler cuz she's heavy man but now I'm not like really carrying her for like long distances anywhere but it's way more now than it was when she was a baby the baby was easy she was like you know seven eight pounds 10 pounds whatever now I I'll report back in a few months because I do feel like you know I'm not saying there's like are you arms I'm a left I'm a righty but I'm a hold the baby in the left arm guy I don't know why maybe that's a normal thing um so if you did free throw shooting contest you would shoot him right-handed because you hold your baby [Laughter] left-handed oh just going to leave that there um anyway no one no realized gains yet but I will say I'll report back does feel it does I do feel stronger I want that to happen I want Cudi to be in an off-hand free throw shooting contest and he just tells all of his teammates on Team USA and he's like what I hold my baby left-handed what's the issue here won I won okay uh uh all right good on that maybe we could have tracked that a little bit better we could have done some strength agility stuff but then if you stayed with the routine you could have just gotten stronger from the routine and then not the baby and then the science is all wrong and you know next thing you know Harvard Medical reviews writing a piece on it you're like oh my God you guys didn't even you didn't have a control which would be terrible in that Community all right so we have a really nice yeah how embarrassing have a really nice house in a suburb outside of a big city in the South both have great jobs she's an operations manager at a large Chemical Company I project manager at an engineering firm sounds like a real adult crew here my dad and my brother his family live about 45 minutes from us and maybe it was wishful thinking but we were hoping they would have been a bigger help with our new daughter through the first eight months they visited once so far and we end up having to make the drive if we want to hang out on the other hand her parents live in the midwest have been incredible they've flown down five or six times already been a huge help because of that my wife is wanting to move back home or really just get out of where we are and we've had many discussions on the pros and cons sounds like we have a lot in both column do we move back to a smaller Midwest town to be close to her family it would probably be a suburb outside of Chicago number two though we love hiking backpacking so we've talked about going somewhere Denver Seattle California knowing we'd be by zero family but I'd love for my daughter to grow up in the outdoors my wife and I have to find new jobs but I think our experience she'd be fine I'm currently working three days a week from home so I'm optimistic I could parlay that into a full remote if we decided to move it's Dawning to think about finding new jobs and new new living arrangements especially halfway across the country but we have some good friends and we'd be that we'd be leaving behind uh sorry for the long email not a long email um pretty pretty straightforward look the not the your side of the family not helping out is certainly a bummer I mean Cudi you have a lot of help do you think of and part of it's just the adaption or adaptation I should say excuse me the adaptation of like what your opportunities or what your resources are right in this case like you have a lot of help if you removed yourself from that like What if I moved to California and we had no family help like how would I even do this well you would just do it right you would you actually just do it but man it must be really nice having so much help the way you do right now which is why you know it's tough to tell people to not do it um so why don't you answer this one before I throw my theories in there yeah I just want to point out him moving to like Denver or Texas or California whatever to go to be outside you can go outside anywhere man like there's cool stuff in the Northeast like there's probably cool St upstate New York there's cool stuff in Chicago like in suburbs I'd imagine there's a lake there's a big lake around there it's probably pretty fun um so anyway just yeah western Mass February [ __ ] kill beautiful amazing yeah so you know trails are empty my my parents live about a couple hours away um I get the the annoying part there is like they always want to FaceTime and I hate FaceTiming so that's kind of like you know it' almost be easier if they were closer because they could just like come over and like you know I don't know just that that that personally annoys me even though I realized that I very grateful should be grateful to have that no but it's like hey can we FaceTime we every day every day every day and it's like the same conversation over I love my parents they're great obviously they help out a ton Ran's met my dad a bunch of times Mr Fix It Joe Rudy but could be more helpful you know it's like you just do the talk on the phone you were my dad no I'm just kidding fair enough I listen I'm a lucky guy no no no I just everybody knows how much I love my dad I just I could not say it at the time my dad not as good as a basketball player as your dad unfortunately but uh he's we all have our pros and cons but yeah like it's you know it drastically changes like my happiness and my mood like actually I want my dad back sorry it was all right you thought about it good good yeah the basketball is Clincher yeah you you my mood would be drastically different I feel like me as a parent would be drastically different if I didn't have any help we talk about this with daycare we talk about this with my parents coming over her parents coming over like you need to do stuff like we still do stuff we go out to dinner we you know go to concerts and if we didn't have people around and we didn't know anybody you know it's just kind of tough to leave her with strangers even just like other daycare parents you don't really know so we probably would do less and my life would be more miserable so um I don't know like if it is kind of an awkward situation too because then like it's it's your parents versus the in-laws and like there's always kind of like a little tug of war there too of like you know who gets more credit or who you know I don't know who's the better situation to be around that could create some arguments but I I I would want the help I'd want a situation where I had help and when I need want to go out or had to do something or like we do a live show and I got to leave and Maddie wants to come with me like we could leave the do leave the kid with our parents for a weekend like that's that to me like makes me a better parent and makes me a better person so I would personally advocate for that it sounds like you've got like I think parents when they get older they even family members like grandparents especially like they kind of fall into two camps it's either like how can I help like what are when are you free when can I drop in and the other one is like you haven't come to see me in a while you know what I mean it's like Livia soprano and it's just like you know I talk to I talk to glattus and her son calls her twice a week and it's just like I like I'm not doing it you come to me now is the time when you take care of me and it sounds like that's kind of where your parents are not to like talk bad about them they just view things differently it's like all right we're done we're aging now you come check on us and you bring us the grandkids and then if you don't you know then we'll say we haven't seen them in a while what's going on even though it's you know 40 minutes away so I think that's just the kind of family you have and it sounds like your you know your brother's just is down to take the same path when it's like yeah dude when you're going over mom and dads let me know we we'll pop over but um think for me family matters it does it would matter and uh maybe you try try the wife I mean suburbs of s great show the suburbs of Chicago sounds fine to me honestly it really does and like like you said like anywhere that's not a city there's tons of outside like so you have to drive 20 minutes to hike big deal like half the distance to your parents house now so um if it was me I would I would try to stay somewhere close to family and you know I don't think there's anything wrong with staying put either to be honest like you got friends and stuff like like that and you're and you're close to one side of the family are you going to use all your free time to go see these people around the world I mean at least at least would you be using all your free time to go see your family who's doesn't go anywhere to to meet you halfway so I don't know stay put it sounds like the wife you know she would want the help in this situation she's the one pushing for the move to outside Chicago and if she wants that to happen s good to me yeah I I I think you're kind of your hands are kind of tied there I think you know I I think there's upside there that's what I would say and it's like cooler than moveing just nothing cuz you're like you'll meet friends through your kids' parents right it's not like hey we both work for and we're GNA yeah I would do that cuz no if you move like if he moved to Colorado and didn't know anybody that's like that's a pretty drastic change with a kid you know because then it's just kind of the three of you and it's it's it's really isolating like I I need see call my buddy Mark yeah what's up Mark I need to like see and talk to people that I already know like I'm you know maybe you're like a social butterfly and you're easy at making friends and it'll be fine and whatever you'll start hanging out with people but I I like to see the people that I've known for for a while and at least be around some of them or at least accessible to some of them if you move somewhere random with a kid that just that's that add more stress to your life that I don't know that you need side note rill had a great Colorado crew I don't know how many of those dudes were local but uh what a what a time good great Colorado crew good group I mean deep R deep yeah there's like nine of you guys uh well nine that stayed out on a school night but I think there was like 20 guys local that showed up to the show um good turnout I mean that was almost the tiebreaker between friendship and ocean ocean W um it was close though no I thought about I actually thought about post Connecticut I go okay if it's not Manhattan Beach what's number two and I was like it's Denver but you know I had some other goals I had some other goals that were not going to be at that time fulfilled in Denver but it was like Hey this might be fun you can have friends you can have somebody to call Friday no offense to Kyle it's traffic he knows the deal by the way Family Matters Family Matters nine seasons on the year wowen Tel I'd say deservedly what's our number one rule about Chicago if you marry a girl from Chicago you have to move back to Chicago so I think we have to factor that in the doing stuff outside suburbs of Chicago have you guys been there that's not a Long window it's not a Long window it's tough those are some tough Seasons um so if you're really about the Out outdoors like look it sounds like the family side on your part isn't enough to keep you there if it actually is that flexible for you to find these other job opportunities I'm all in favor of moving I think you become I don't know if it's a better person but with the experience you're just going to gain things from it there are going to be valuable parts of your life from that move that are going to make you appreciate when you go back which I've always told every single young person that ever suggests should I move in an email I'm like yeah move you're young who cares the good thing here is your daughter is so young it's not like you're ripping her out of school and say you go to the greater Colorado area um which I'm a huge fan of Denver itself is kind of being stretched at the seams um even though there's still some great surrounding neighborhoods uh the city is is just there's it was not designed to have this many people live there and it's and it's very different like each year I go I'm like man this place is really really having a hard time uh maintaining this population Spike that they've had and I don't know the latest numbers but it was a significant Spike over a while um I I like I like where your head's at like hey is there a way to kind of get eight to nine months because that's the other thing Denver's weather is one of the more misunderstood climates in the United States too because there's just way more opportunity to do stuff outside uh longer throughout the year if if you know you know so you wouldn't be like disrupting your family uh in the sense that if you had a kid who were like seven and five like all right now we're moving to this other place because then you could decide okay we like this and we got her out but now maybe we do want to be back I I think this is now the time for you to be able to pull this off with the correction of likely not going back to where you're living now because you don't feel like it's that much support and then potentially going to the suburb of Chicago where some of the stuff that you think you're going to be doing is you keep growing your family you're probably going to have that much free time to do in the first place but then it can again Circle back around to Friendship because how many emailers do we have have here every month they like move to a new town don't know how to meet anybody um I sometimes replaying and I think you should do this without sitting there on your couch by yourself having constant regrets I wonder like hey if I had prioritized friends and being around friends like how differently would have things played out and for my specific industry you wouldn't know who the [ __ ] I was okay if I prioritized it none of this ever happens but it doesn't mean it doesn't bum me out sometimes I think about like even the Denver thing is real reminiscent I like yeah who knows maybe that would have been awesome and if it were just podcasting and I were at this point now I could just move wherever I want but look um this isn't about me it's about this hell of a little daughter here who's Apparently one side of the in-laws have no interest in which sucks how could you not want to see a kid well I I I would like to know what buddy you mentioned like I wonder what their situation is are they are they way older are they retired yet I don't know maybe their situation isn't just as flexible so it's an outlook on life I think they're just you know maybe their parents were just like you know you come pay tribute to us we're not going to like we don't care if you've got a show you want to go to it really doesn't matter you come see me and maybe that's how they are imagine how bored you're gonna be Kyle at like 75 yeah totally well I don't know maybe he's got six boats maybe his dad's got six boats in three states I don't know maybe maybe you're craping his style dude just going like yeah no Chris Burman was cool I didn't interact with him a lot though so anyway we have a yellow fin tuna to start uh anyway um yeah yeah like we're not married but I met her online she's like 38 I don't really know what the deal is trying to trying to get her papers in order um okay I think that's enough for today yeah good by me didn't watch Family Matters Kyle totally watch Family Matters I think KL wins is one of the top TV dads yeah yeah that was a lock I've never talked to you about it there's no way me knowing you would think that you didn't know Family Matters inside and out okay that's enough for today thanks to Mike wargon thanks to Cudi who people still think it's two words yep and the Kyle check out our YouTube page and always subscribe to the r rilla podcast bring your spot the alliance missed it by that much week one it's all right it happens one week one of us will always well except for the weeks we win there usually be somebody to blame there uh sucks it had to be LSU too but yeah it sucks that for 24 hours we're like all right three and 0 start on this one and then it just goes the wrong way even with the alt spread but Kyle don't worry about it don't worry about it f good about it in the building was there was excited and then I wasn't at the end so uh Kyle do you want to go first switch it up yep still going Vibes you're not going to get me to spend my whole Saturday watching football uh as well as Sunday so um sorry about that but I if you guys know me you know I've been really into but here's can't name one guy minus seven and a half you guys know me you know I've really thrown myself back into the college basketball space over the last couple years and I really didn't want to bet against NC State because I do love their big boy DJ Burns and they did I think they made him the alpha wolf starter if you guys know what that is for the football team so I don't want to go against them but I I can't pick for them so I'm going to take the under the adjusted under in this game uh 64 and a half uh that way I'm not going for I'm not going against but it's just vibes okay okay I'll just jump in here um I'm wondering you know look Tennessee as we talked about with Spears demolishing an outman team like what did you really learn NC State in their opener against an inferior opponent took until the fourth quarter to wake up and wake up they did you know wasn't some crazy turnover thing that separated they did outgain them but you know it was one of those games I'm like is is there any way we can get ahead of Tennessee spreads being bigger and then this number not being as big because there's still a thought that you know NC State is a preseason ranked team and one of the Dark Horse of the ACC so look that's what I'm going with here but I'm going alt line because as cudy points out we're trying to put these picks together to pay out at plus 400 so since it's a four leg this season as opposed to well we did four last year and then three I think the year before that um the line on FanDuel right now is Tennessee minus 9 and a half at NC State but we're g to move that down to minus 6 and a half correct sir so just update us about yeah right yeah just to get under a touchdown so that's that's fair um okay all right War you want to go yeah sure I'm looking at uh Clemson App State I think Clemson looked pretty bad last week but I think everyone's gonna kind of look bad against Georgia so Death Valley night game I like Clemson to bounce back but appstate getting 17 their last eight games against Power five opponents all ones score games and 17 is just a big number so we look at the all line we can get 21 a half minus 188 I just like Abate to kind of keep this close and uh stay within that number that's what research looks like sorry you're never going to get that from me fellas that was he is research what's the number on that work on too what was it plus plus 21 and a half 21 and a half okay all right looks good I'm GNA close it out this is kind of weird because the original number though just is is minus 16 and a half on the open right and you're you're moving it up I thought it was- 17 I might have moved okay no no it's fine look you probably find it at 16 and a half 17 wherever you want to look for it but I just wanted to double check that well speaking of moving when I was looking earlier Oregon was a 21 a half Point favorite against Boise State at home and since in like the two hours since I looked at that and now we're actually recording this segment it's moved two points less and it's now 18 and a half which I don't I guess it's good news because now I can get this as an ALT spread of minus 13 and a half under uh under minus 200 that's- 194 so I I I don't know why it would have moved down two points in the two hours that we're talking and whether or not that should be a red flag but I love Dylan Gabriel and I feel like Boise State gave up a ton of points to Georgia whatever Southern last week and Oregon's going to score so I I just I'm gonna take the alt spread here minus 13 and a half Oregon to beat Boise State at home and so if you pair all those together that's four legs that gets us to plus 453 guys decent payout let's get it right on the money all right that's good and we'll keep track of individual standings for a contest that we will never follow off