Yahoo Must Drafts and Sleepers to win your league with Matt Lawson, Dynasty expert from FBI

[Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] I messed up a setting I'm realizing and I'm going to fix it in real time I hope see if I can do this while I'm talking there we go my face was taking up the entire YouTube screen and nobody wants that welcome everybody to old man squad fantasy basketball I am Dan bpis at Dan bpis on Twitter you can follow Oldman Squad as well and that one if nothing else will follow you back today I am joined by an old buddy of mine a long time coming he's back the great Matt Lawson Matt it has been entirely too long it's so nice to see your pun him how you been my man Dan I'm doing great and I have to say uh it's like being back with an old friend but just so you know I've been admiring you from a distance I've been listening um so I'm fully up to date on everything with you um and and I'm I'm excited that I now get to make this a two-way uh relationship where I get to actually speak back to you instead of just listening to you every day I I've been listening to Dan since the I I think the very beginning all the way back in the hoopball days um and I love this podcast I love Dan's philosophy on Fantasy Basketball even though it differs from mine in some ways but that's what I've always enjoyed about it I I've had an inner debate and dialogue with Dan listening to this podcast for so many years uh so it is a dream come true to be able to actually come on the show and to be able to continue that debate in real time well let's get that debate out into the universe Matt of course is on Twitter NBA Dynasty ADP he is with fantasy basketball International he is uh a dynasty Maven you're like I I and I and if you can flatter me I can flatter you as well I think you're one of the personalities that really brought Dynasty more into the main stream We're not gonna be talking about that on today's show but I know without like getting too like puffy headed the two of us here like I didn't know that much about it before you made it a bigger thing do you feel like you've done that kind Lifting for it I will say this I mean about four years ago that I started making Dynasty content I had been playing Dynasty sports for much longer F Dynasty fantasy football and I kind of discovered Dynasty fantasy basketball um almost accidentally through Josh Lloyd having some leagues open started getting involved in that and just found this rabid Community uh that desperately wanted resources that just didn't exist for fantasy basketball but did exist for Fantasy Football so it's been my goal of the last last four years to try to provide those resources uh for a community that is in desperate need of them that wants them to be able to enhance their experience of playing these Dynasty leagues which really mirror the way that we follow the NBA it's about tracking your favorite players it's about following offseason transactions it's about looking at who's tanking and building up draft assets that's what Dynasty brings to the table and it's often the way that we actually follow the league so once people get into it they start to tap into the same thing that makes them enjoy the NBA as a whole but in a context I have a dynasty followup question before we get into some of your Yahoo board uh swings or misses um by the way we are going to be doing the new Yahoo board with Matt today that's that's the main topic the topic dour but how would you because this is the thing for me how would you talk a redraft person into trying a dynasty League what's the sales job there I think the sales pitch is the satisfaction that you get out of finding that gem in redraft of having that player who pops who jumps up from a late round selection into being a mid to early round value and then getting to carry that over that victory over your friends not just in a single season but for the rest of their career you know imagine how good it feels to be able to get the guy who breaks out to take Shay gilis Alexander as a lottery pick uh kind of the back end of the lottery going to the Clippers and then having that guy turn into a top five fantasy player and it's not just one season and then you have to let someone else take them the following year you get to be able to keep coming back for that entire career of that player uh to be able to run Victory lapse around your friends so it's it's really about sustained victory over the people you love and that's what I enjoy so much about it beat beat the people you love into a pulp that is actually a pretty damn good sales pitch all right let's talk some yahoo stuff uh you are as with all guests steering the boat on today's show uh I know you have like five really big ones and then you have like an infinite number of smaller ones we'll start wherever you'd like to go uh I'll be watching the clock so you don't have to where do you want to start well I think the big thing about the up Yahoo update that surprised me is that there were some players where we anticipated that there might be a leap up uh and it didn't happen in some areas and you know maybe we just need to keep this quiet because for some of these we don't want to expose the values that are going to really give us a huge advantage in Yahoo drafts this year uh but the big one for me was Jaylen Williams having him at number 43 still on new board this is a player that I think is going to have a very good chance at second round value this year and I think there is as crazy as it sounds even room above that certainly in future years uh but I think that this is misunderstanding the changes in Oklahoma City and also the trajectory in his fantasy stat set that we are seeing Jaylen Williams on to have him be a fourth round uh pre-ranked pick I think that it's obviously a good value in the third round and he's someone who I think even you could get that second round value this this season for Williams it's the percentages obviously we've already seen a stat set that in a smaller role plays really well in nine category to be able to have strong percentages a steel rate that while fluctuating still has been strong he's near the league lead in deflections every single year but last year we saw a few things that changed the game even more the free throw percentage is coming up more and it's suggestive that as he gets to the line more which I think he will uh with the ball Moore as he develops we could have a plus free free throw percentage player not just a solid one but a real contributor in that area the assist rate this was a huge change because initially as a rookie you had Josh giddy running a lot of second units Jaylen Williams took that on when Shay was off of the floor more last year but now we still had giddy getting a lot of playmaking usage in transition that is a vacuum that was not filled by anyone who was brought in by Oklahoma City this year Alex guso isn't going to be taking on that playmaking usage he's a good connective passer but he's not doing what Josh kidy was doing kidy was also driving a handful of times a game that's not really Caruso's game either so we're going to have Jaylen Williams taking on even more uh especially in a playmaking area where the assist numbers could continue to rise and there there are places here the three-point shot is solid the percentage is really good the volume is low that could come up with chip England in Oklahoma City the scoring I believe is going to come up and this is already one of the most efficient players in the NBA uh from the perspective of being able to score from multiple zones at an efficient rate so I'm extremely excited about where this is headed with Jaylen Williams he's someone from a dynasty perspective that I've loved since even before he was drafted um and then having him come into the league you could see in the first few months that we were on a completely different trajectory than it looked like and what I compare it to what I think of him as is kind of that Prime Jimmy Butler from a fantasy perspective juicy that's that's what we're getting with Jaylen Williams and it could be a more modern version of it as he stretches it out to three a little bit more uh but he's just going to check so many boxes across a nine category stat set I this is just the beginning of it we're not really even into his prime I don't think this is even going to be a Prime season yet at only 23 years old there's so much good yet to come but there's so much good coming this year especially at a pre- rank of 43 you know I love jayen Williams you're preaching to the choir on that one why don't you think he jumped up is it because he's not Hyper Elite in any one category is it sort of like that that head-to-head bias for a guy who is just like a roto Mega darling but maybe doesn't have the like oh he's not super elad in rebounds or assists or something like that so there's not one thing that catches the eye yeah I I think it's I think it's also just the not tracking where the ball is headed seeing where it was you're right last year aoto darling that really balanced stat set not really jumping out in any particular area but you see the sight line of where it's headed that he could end up being an elite producer in points in assists maybe free throw percentage in steals definitely that's where this could be heading and some of it could already head there this year and even if it doesn't the floor is already so high because he's been there so that extra stuff those extra areas and categories where we see it could be rising eventually we're never going to be able to get him in the fourth round anymore we're never going to be able to get him in the third round anymore this is going to be that low Point um it's only going to go up from here so let's all get in while the get in is good because Jaylen Williams is going to have a really really nice season for the Thunder yeah I don't disagree with you at some point on today's show I might try to play Devil's Advocate but it's not going to be on this one because I freaking love Jaylen Williams and as a nine cat Roto guy like even if he doesn't make a massive leap anywhere he was still third round like the last four months last season he was already better than where he was being drafted like everybody knows the way I look at it is I want I like to try to see something before I believe it we've seen it already with him but yeah I mean like you know if people don't want to push him up the board that's totally fine with us Matt where do you want to go next I want to talk a little bit about Darius Garland because he's a guy that I think the uh the hate has gone a little bit too far on and and this is kind of a classic fantasy Trope where we have a player who's shown us a level in a couple of different seasons and in a couple of different contexts of a player who's kind of an earlier round value a kind of a traditional guard stat set last season uh he kind of had a mystery injury I think it was to his hand that was messing with his handle a little bit he just didn't look like himself and then he got his jaw broken drinking through a straw not able to eat solid food it sounds like an absolute nightmare even if you weren't a professional athlete and he kind of went through the the season from Hell uh I think the perception is Darius Garland can't play with Donovan Mitchell but we already saw Darius Garland play with Donovan Mitchell the prior season a strong season maybe not quite at the level and the usage level that we had seen in his breakout season Allstar season before that before Don Donovan Mitchell arrived but they do work together because Garland Works off ball he is able to provide value with his stats set even with another usage monster next to him so now you have Garland at 61 which I think bakes in some improvement obviously off of what we had last year but it's not nearly the level that we had seen in the prior two seasons I think the one reason for pause here with Garland is that you have Kenny ainson coming in who when we previously saw him in Brooklyn is willing to spread minutes out a little bit more so maybe instead of 35 minutes a game we're dumping down to 34 even 33 but even at that level when I look at the the Cavs guard rotation there's only so much leaning on Caris LeVert you can do before he breaks and and Sam Merill is going to be a guy who's gonna come off of the bench put up some threes but you can't extend Sam Merrill into minutes into well into the 20s that he's going to have to play minutes in the teens he has a very particular role on this team so I think Donovan Mitchell who's likely going to miss some time like he usually does is going to have to play fewer minutes because they're going to try to keep him upright keep him healthy keep him being the guy that he we saw at his best last year Garland is going to have to still take on a significant load in that regard I think the minutes come down a little bit because that's the way Atkinson wants to do it but this is someone who I see as a really nice value when the assists start drying up when the guard stats start to dry up in your draft you're going to be able to get Garland in the mid- rounds at this pre- Rank and he's a player that I think could have some nice uh ceiling above the pre- rank because we've already seen it in Seasons prior do you think the turnovers because they did come down as the season went on last season was a weird one for Garland and and you got into a bit a bit of it there on the injury stuff he actually didn't get off to that bad of a start and I think that's maybe something that I'm likely guilty of forgetting his numbers at the beginning of the year were colored by almost four turn overs a game and so if you ignored that the other stuff was pretty darn similar to the prior year 21 points six assists he was actually a 1.6 steals the first couple months of the year which you know that maybe that doesn't stick but whatever shot the ball 46 47% like that was higher and then there was this drop off in almost all of the counting stuff and percentages and the turnovers also came down and so they ended up looking they being turnovers less ridiculous how do you see Matt talking to Matt Lawson at NBA Dynasty ADP how do you see that balancing out with him did the turnovers go back up as the other stuff comes up and you just kind of have to deal with that or is it all going to kind of level out a little bit well I I think that this is actually and it's only rumor but there there was kind of a drum beat from some of the beat reporters and people on the inside in Cleveland early in the season that Garland was playing through a hand injury and that was messing with his handle that was causing him to have a looser handle have more turnovers which was a little bit unusual for him not not a particularly super high turnover player prior to that I expect that to be able to level out and you can kind of look at where he was at at prior but but we have to remember too that this is a guy who's exceptionally young I mean at at only it seems like he's been in the league forever he has been in for a while but he's 24 years old and often you can see the point guards it's one of the toughest positions to be able to get over the learning curve with I think assist turnover ratios often do improve as you're getting into those prime years and I think that's something that we could see with Garlin this year especially with Better Health so not a particular area of concern for me especially because you're just going to inherently be picking up some turnovers with your players are going to be a little bit higher on the assist end but I don't think he's going to be an outlier in that regard the way that he was early last season um one more thing on Darius Garland and this is more from a team build standpoint because I like to hear how other analysts are thinking about their team he's the kind of guy that I don't necessarily go into into a draft targeting but if you happen to get say an okay number of assists early without an extraordinarily High number of turnovers it seems like someone like Garland could actually become even more enticing like it starting with Tyrese halberton Garland is the kind of guy maybe you could pair him with later because halton's getting a lot of assists without that many turnovers or is that just not even something that gets into the calculus for you well from a head-to-head perspective I the yes I need to be a little bit concerned about how many early round players that I'm getting are that are contributing heavily uh to my turnover uh my turnover category but the the reality is that most of those players are coming in the early rounds anyway I'm going to be getting a bunch of players on the back end of my draft that are not going to be contributing to that and I like the interlocking piece of players with Garland stat set because his areas of weakness or areas of strength for all of the big men that are going to be at the back end of drafts this year in that top one 100 range who are going to be able to bring you Elite field goal percentage rebounds blocks and low turnovers so I'm going to be able to stack a lot of those players who shouldn't be going in the early rounds who won't be going in the early rounds based on Yahoo pre- ranks and there's a bunch of them that I like at the back of the draft whether it's a yaka purle or nit zubats there's so many players are going to be able to be a puzzle piece that fit into players players like Garland's weaknesses that are an exact fit to be able to fill in those holes that I'm creating and I can get them later so it's not just where players are weak it's what is going to be scarce later on and the few categories that I can fill with Elite producers at the back end of a draft those categories are field goal percentage rebounds and blocks I can go get those later on from players who that might be the only thing that they do but they're going to be able to backfill that for me and it's available I can't backfill points and assists and steals or excuse me in free throw percentage like real contributors in free throw percentage as easily especially in one player at the back end of a draft but I can do it with big man stats so that's a consideration of reason that players like Garland with that stat set push up for me a little bit because it's something that becomes increasingly scarce as the draft moves on I love that team builds I you you know I like to pull out from the the 30,000 foot View and just sort of think about how you're working your way through a draft Matt before we get to your third choice here what are you working on right now I love I love a good midow promo yeah so all of my cont content when I was talking about creating Dynasty resources the big thing that I started with was Dynasty ADP because I think one of the things that we look at here is having that guideline of how are players valued and at a time there was nothing like that in the dynasty world so how players were valued was something that was shrouded in mystery that people just kind of had to figure out based on conversations within their league there was no consensus to be able to build around and no consensus to be able to work from for traits so I started from that point I built out Dynasty ADP going back back historically uh I think back to 2016 or 2017 I've been able to collect old drafts to be able to get an idea of how player values changed I then built from that to be able to create dynasty rankings rookie draft rankings a trade calculator um so many different things that you have in fantasy football or things that I provide and I've created a platform on patreon to be able to make those available um to be able to access all of it uh I think we have it at $5 a month right now and uh right now we have over 2,000 members um on the platform uh so there is a rabid community of people if you're not on it your league mates might be and I think it's providing something that doesn't exist anywhere else you can find me at patreon do patreon.com nbad Dynasty ADP you can join for free there's free content on there that you can take a look at to preview and see some of the work that I'm doing um and it's a great Community we've got a bunch of people in a Discord and and people chatting with me over over the website itself um I love it I love the dynasty Community it's a big reason why I got into this because I was finding the same people friends through drafts and Friends through different leagues people like Rhett Bower U just having conversations about player values I mean that that's that built this community for me and I love giving back to it that is awesome by the way uh your Twitter handle Twitter handle is also NBA Dynasty ADP uh where do you want to go next let's dive into number three here all right let's go back to Oklahoma City and I want to talk about Isaiah hartenstein uh I also want to talk about Isaiah hard you're in good company on that one so Yahoo has him in number 86 and that's kind of in this glut of centers uh that you're getting in kind of the mid to early late rounds uh in drafts based on Yahoo pre- rank I think that there is going to be a popular opinion that hartenstein going to Oklahoma City is a negative for his fantasy value relative to him staying in New York and doing what did last year and he was great in New York let's let's not get that wrong but what he was great at last year was being a Tom Tibido Center which meant that he did not get to have the ball in his hands nearly as much as he should have now many people might not even remember this or have been aware of it because it was on the Clippers and who pays attention to the clippers but Isaiah hartenstein has the ability to be a passing Hub and I think that is exactly why Oklahoma City brought him in because he fits into what they want to do offensively and defensively gives them something they don't have have in both areas and I think you're going to see him at least be a neutral in assist this year I think you're going to see the scoring come up and even if the minutes dropped down compared to what he was doing while Mitchell Robinson was out when he was playing minutes up into the 30s I think even in 28 minutes which is I think is about where he's going to settle in because he's gonna be able to play next to Chad holgren because the two of them are going to be able to split up the center minutes across 48 minutes I think you're going to see him be able to produce at a similar overall fantasy level because his the way that he is utilized and used is going to be more effective for Fantasy this year he's a guy that I would have inside of my top 50 uh from a per game in totals perspective I really like him this year and I think it's a massive value to have him at 86 this is someone that I'm willing to take around early just to make sure that I get him I I could see that number coming up but I think there's going to be an anchor on it because of the perception well is he even going to start can he play next to Chad I don't have concerns about that Oklahoma City knows exactly what they're getting out of him and it's not just using him like Tom Tibido likes to use Jericho Sims or Mitchell Robinson he's going to get fully utilized in the way that all of his skills allow this is why they needed to be able to add a player like this he's going to add some beef to the rebounding that they massively needed but he's not going to take away from what they like to be able to do offensively as well I think that's going to keep him on the floor and make him into a huge fantasy winner this year I have a couple of followup questions on this one so last year hardenstein on the entire season was at 25 minutes that was of course with low backup minutes and then very large starters minutes and then he had the whole like playing 20 minutes a game because he was injured but they wanted to keep him out there kind of it was a little bit reminiscent of Tyrese halberton but he he he managed to get through it uh and he was ranked 74th in nine category leagues in 25 minutes a game Matt let's say he only gets 25 minutes a game in Oklahoma City because of how he's being used you think he could go higher in rank in the same number of minutes it sounds like am I interpreting that right that's right because I still think defensively you're going to be getting a lot of what you got from him last year he's going to have big rebound numbers I think he's going to have really strong field goal percentage uh offensively but also you're going to get some blocks from him like you did so that floor is there we're going to be able to have that I think that what you're going to be able to get in him scoring a little bit more have seeing the assist numbers come up a little bit and that this is a guy who from the center position doesn't kill your free throw percentage category he's going to be in the low 70s and free throw percentage and it's nice to be able to have that usually when you're having to kind of take a bullet from the free throw percentage when you're adding centers later on in the draft so even if the minutes are lower than I anticipate and I think we're going to be more in the high 20s especially given that they made this an absolute priority for them giving them a $30 million a year contract yes it was a little bit funny money because it's kind of one of their last opportunities before some of these extensions start to come due for them to be able to spend the calf space that they have but hartenstein is going to be a big part of their plans they targeted him for a reason not to be able to have him just take over the role that the other Jaylen Williams the center Jaylen Williams was playing and play behind Chad they're going to use them together and I think a lot of people don't realize yet how much more there is to Chad holgren uh the chadol G that we saw coming up through the high school ranks that was one of the top recruits in the country he didn't even get to show at Gonzaga what he can do on ball uh what he can do in his face up game I think we're going to see more of that from Chad this year which might be a downgrade for Fantasy but it's going to open up more opportun for hartenstein um during the Oklahoma City's uh 2425 run that was actually going to be my other question is what do you think he does to holgren because it it does worry me a little bit Yeah I think chat's going to score more this year um and I think Chad has more offensive game than his role allowed him to be able to show last season so there's going to be a shifting of the stat set that is probably going to from a nine category perspective hurt a little bit um I I I still think chat's going to block a lot of shots because Chad is gigantic and he blocks shots he can come in from the weak side because he has the lateral quickness to be able to do it um and you're still going to have you know even from my projection 20 minutes of chat playing Center on the court uh without hartenstein if they really do just split up the the center minutes to be able to allow both of them to cover them entirely so if I'm getting that I'm still getting blocks from Chad holgren I think the rebounding could take more of a hit and we saw that inconsistency in the rebounding from chat last year um which could be a little bit of a decrease but I think we should see Improvement in his assist numbers more threes more points uh that should balance some of that out I I think Chad's still going to be a really good fantasy player I love Chad hren but I I think that this this situation is really going to create a lot of opportunity for hartenstein yeah I I think I lean with you on that one although Chad moving down in the latest Yahoo board to the end of the second round instead of the middle of it uh makes that maybe a little bit of a safer call than it than it was before but it sounds like you've got the scales of Justice sort of balancing out you still have two more names I had a feeling we would go deep on a lot of these guys I want to try to get through those last two uh we can save the other ones for a future appearance which by the way I can let everybody know will be happening again shortly uh Matt where do you want to go with player number four I think I'm counting that right I think that's right I want to go a little bit deep on this one and this is a guy that I think everybody's kind of always looking for that player that they're going to be able to get around the you know outside the top 100 who might pop who might have that really big explosion up the board when I was on the show three years ago uh one of the players that I was saying could make that kind of leap was Miles Bridges and that was the season that he did uh because everything aligned for Miles Bridges to be able to have a huge season last year uh we were hyping up on our platform Jaylen Johnson because we thought from a dynasty perspective we had loved him for a while but he just hadn't gotten the opportunity but we had seen enough of him as a role player a change in who he was as a player in shorter minutes that if he got that starting opportunity uh with John Collins leaving if he got to be able to play extended minutes that he could really explode and then he did uh this year um one someone that I think is now going a little bit under the radar for multiple reasons that I think the Yahoo pre- rank that I saw for him number 144 uh is a Denny AIA so Denny AIA last year had a little bit of a mini breakout in Washington but it's kind of one of those situations where if a tree falls in the forest and no one hears it does it fall at all because unless you had Denny ABIA if unless you had Denny obia you probably didn't realize anything that was going on in Washington during that stretch because they were playing absolutely Dreadful basketball Kyle kzo was out for part of it but what happened for Denny last year this is a guy who kind of had some point forward ability the abil ability to be able to dribble and pass at a good power forward size uh and the shooting progressed a little bit which was a huge swing skill for him the volume came up a little bit the efficiency improved during stretches um his passing ability continued to be bble to show and we got improved scoring he's a driving monster someone who just kind of gets to the the rim at will using his body to be able to plow ahead and and you love that ability to be able to create uh from a power forward in that way what's interesting now him getting traded away from Washington and going to Portland I think a lot of people viewed that as a negative uh but what I will say is this I think AIA has a very good chance to start I think he almost needs to because the players that are around him he has an ability at his size to be able to guard players on the perimeter he's one of the best defensive players you know for his size in the NBA he showed that last season I think Portland made this move because they are looking at a very small backourt between scoot Henderson Anthony Simons Shaden sharp and even if they don't keep Simons in the long term just having Scoot and Shaden is probably going to be a poor defensive back court they're going to need to be able to have someone who can handle perim handle the best wings on the other team and even be able to keep their feet uh sliding to be able to stay out against other perimeter players and guards AIA I think is that perfect piece and I think it's why they targeted him it's why they gave up a draft pick when even when they're in rebuilding mode to be able to bring him in he's on a really nice contract that they're going to be able to hold him for a while and he's a guy who I think could play 30 minutes a night and I'm not just like I wasn't last year he played during the tank for Washington even if we're in tank mode in Portland I think you can roll out Denny AIA without all of a sudden worrying that you're going to be picking up wins when it's Delano Banton time again in Portland you can still have Denny AIA out there so even though there's some concern that Portland's just going to take everybody out of the lineup I think that obdi is someone who can be able to play through that just like he did in Washington last year without screwing up the up the number of Lottery balls that Portland's going to have at the end of the season the last month this past year when Washington got into this silly mode a little bit AO was averaging 18 and a half points nine rebounds four and a half assists one and a half three-pointers he shot 48% from the field Steals and blocks were we'll just call them sort of average uh but he did a bit with free throws and turnovers is that a thing you think he can continue to improve upon I think so the free throw shooting is definitely kind of middling it to to slightly poor I mean we're talking about someone who I think can can Center into the mid-70s to Upper 70s across his prime the issue of course is that because he drives he gets to the line a little bit more for someone of his usage that you would think that he would um I I think that that will continue to be probably in the slight negative category for him and from a turnover perspective I think some of that was the the playmaking load that got put onto him in a situation in Washington by the end where there was little else out there of anyone who could who could create any kind of offense so he was probably overextended in that particular role it's nice to have that club in his bag the fact that he can pass at his size that he can dribble and drive at his size is an asset for him but it's an asset in the right context in the right uh amount of usage and I think he'll be able to find that in the long term and even this year in Portland with Jeremy Grant around him Anthony Simons around him and their younger players and Scoot Henderson and Shaden sharp he's lower in the totem pole when it comes to usage but this is a player where I don't think that's a detriment because he's pretty solid across categories otherwise and is able to provide you a nice floor especially uh you know for a pick that you're able to get at the very back end of the draft and he if he ends up having a big starting role if he ends up playing 30 plus minutes A Night to Get for free at the end of drafts I think could be a really really nice value that pays dividends that gets you a potential top 75 player if he continues on the trajectory that I see him on FBI's Matt Lawson NBA Dynasty ADP one more we got one more in the tank before we wrap up today where do you want to finish things up all right so this I I got to talk about one of these super young guys cuz you know we've been kind of young but I I I'm a dynasty guy so let's talk about let's talk about somebody who could pop um who has already shown some flashes for now the path is not there already but I want to talk about amen Thompson in in Houston now we've got a pre- rank of 127 here so kind of out of the consideration out of out of the thought process uh for most people in drafts but with the men Thompson I think there's a few things at play here in Houston that people might not have realized of what happened near the end of the season even before Alper and shenon got hurt the Houston Rockets were playing at a much higher Pace the goal coming out of the All-Star break and even a little bit before it was to become a heavy transition team and you can see why when you look at the roster yes you still have friend B Ved and Dylan Brooks holding it down as veterans but for the most part this is a young and super athletic team that's going to benefit from playing the kind of defense that maoka wants them to play on one side and they were a top 10 defense last year and then getting out in transition and letting the athleticism of guys like amen Thompson cam Whitmore tar e show now this bench unit in Houston is really exciting for D Dynasty people like me because you're talking about Reed Shepard who I'm really excited about as a rookie amen Thompson uh cam Whitmore tar een those guys are gonna play a lot together amen is the guy that I think could transcend a little bit and eat into minutes in a lot of other places I think that he could even play a little bit of a small ball Center because that's what we saw him do last year during the Rockets run when they were beating up on some of the worst teams in the league when shenon went down men started to play a little bit of small ball Center they were playing heavily in transition and the stat set really popped and that's why I like amen I want if I'm taking guys outside of the top 100 I want a stat set a permanent stat set that is going to give me something of a lot of value if they get more minutes if their role changes that that opportunity is going to cause them to become a very fantasy relevant player with a men we haven't even seen him operate in the as a playmaker the way that he showed that he could at overtime Elite that's eventually coming that's coming when Fred Van vet leaves that's coming when maybe even potentially Jaylen green is gone from this team if he doesn't work out as a prospect the way that they're planning and they don't give him the rookie extension that he's going to want but for this year I think amen Thompson's going to be able to bring you some of the most steals in the league on a permanent basis I think he's going to he's an extremely strong rebounder from a for minute perspective field goal the field goal percentage was really strong especially as the season went on last year and you're getting at least neutral assist and block numbers now you're not going to get the most scoring out of them the shooting is wonky but this is a guy who's going to be a fantasy star in the long term he's someone who there's the biggest Delta between their Dynasty value the way that they're perceived in Dynasty versus redraft and these are the kind of guys that I want to bring onto the the radar of redraft people because the dynasty World sees this trajectory going toward fantasy stardom it might not be this year but you're getting them for free at the back end of a draft now and if he gets to play minutes up into the upper 20s because he starts eating away from others because of the utility of what he can do on the court then suddenly you could be looking at someone who goes up into fantasy relevance pushes into that top 100 maybe even into top 75 depending on how high the minutes go and that is where you can get a lot of value for a guy that you're getting at the very end of your draft Yeah you know in 26 and a half minutes a game last two months of this past he was top 80 in nine category leagues some of those games were with and some were without shenon is he Matt uh do you think he's the first person off the bench for this team because like you talked about they have a really strong bench Whitmore Thompson Reed Shepard T een that's a lot of guys to sort through but if you're the first one off the bench that basically means if anybody goes down you're the first person to eat into it has he you think already jumped those other guys cuz I mean it's not like he has to clear many veterans to get there I think so because of his ability to kind of be a utility man here he has an ability to play as a wing if needed he has an ability to be able to play a little bit of a small ball big role and he has enough playmaking and handling ability to be able to operate also on the perimeter um and to create some offense so there's a lot of different players on this team that he can fill in for off of the bench I think it makes him kind of an ideal Sixth Man for them and he brings a lot of defensive intens which I think is what em udoka is going to Value above all else for who is going to get the most minutes coming off of this Rockets bench do you think uh T een has a path this year because dude can rebound and steal like nobody's business I love tar I think the the Dylan Brooks problem is still there I mean if he's not problem I think I think eventually uh you know T's a guy who again there's a big Delta between where we view him in Dynasty and where he's viewed in redraft right now because he's blocked uh but tar I think he will and already did to some degree endear himself to em udoka I think that he's going to have the opportunity to eat into Brooks if we get another season like a couple ago where Dylan just can't hit a shot last year Dylan hit hit enough shots to be able to keep himself out there and and make his defense worthwhile but that defense is only going to play as long as he continues to be able to provide enough offensively tar is a guy who's eventually going to take over for him I believe in tar e is a long-term starter in the league and he's someone that I think should be held on to dearly in Dynasty leagues um I hope that it happens this season but having Jabari Smith Jr already taking up a big load at Power Forward having Dylan Brooks kind of playing as the other and the other forward spot leaves little for tar H to be able to to work his way into uh but I see a possibility of him to overtake Brooks at some point if it's not this year I think it could be next yeah we want it but Shucks it's probably not uh not imminent uh I know you got a laundry list of other stuff but we're going to save that because that's the the magic of radio we'll tease it to the next one Matt Lawson at NBA Dynasty ADP I got to say man it was good to have this conversation uh in not in your own head anymore this is this is a lot of fun for me uh this I mean let me get let me get aend Thompson off the screen for for folks on YouTube so they can uh see your face and see your information there uh next time I'm going to make sure you put your Twitter handle on the screen for everybody to see but again that's NBA Dynasty ADP uh Matt your your your is a special thing and I'm glad we got to share it today thank you so much for coming on well thanks for making this an interactive experience for me I enjoyed I enjoyed getting to have a dialogue thanks Dan do can we do it again soon let's do it man that is a sharp dude that is a sharp damn dude these Dynasty folks they see things they see things a special way I always come away from shows with Rhett and with Matt and I know with Matt it's been a while but like I come away from these shows just like seeing things differently and I love that I love that I love that they're able to sort of open up our eyes to things the way that because when you're watching for the next five years you have a different you have a different set of angles you have to look at than when you're watching for the next five months maybe I should say six years versus six months or whatever so to understand what the Thunder want to do what the Rockets want to do what the Cavs want to do what a coach wants to do all of these things are intensified when you look over that long term where for me doing just a standard redraft show I don't really have to pay that much attention to Reed Shepard we know that he has a fantastic Fantasy game but we also know that he's buried he's like probably the seventh or eighth probably the eighth man maybe ninth on that rocket team he's good he's rookie and you've got as we talked about Whitmore second year am man Thompson second year T een third year there's guys that are just in front and then there's veterans floating around I think they still I think they brought Aaron holiday back can't remember what the hell they did it back up Center doesn't really matter but like there's that's the kind of thing that someone in Dynasty they have to know the contract status of all those guys they have to know what the Rocket's trying to do where he's going to fit what's the Jaylen green situation going to look like where for us it's nice to know those things but we don't have to in this moment but what it does is it gives us a unique perspective on how to assess what's going to happen over each chunk of time time is a we can look at it in sort of Quant packets of time what's two months four months six months one year two years three years and there's value in that I also think that some of what we talked about on today's show and just just in case you guys forgot some of the names that went over amen Thompson was the last one we can kind of work backwards from this one uh Denny AIA before him uh Darius Garland and the first two isaah or sorry Isaiah hartenstein and Jaylen Williams those are the big five we talked about on today's show and the interesting thing too is they fit in different formats a little bit differently Darius Garland is a high turnovers guy you just kind of have to come to terms with that a little bit even if they do even if it's not 3.8 or like he was over four for a little stretch last year it's going to be on the higher side and they are high turnover guys that go in the first round they do more than garland does but he's kind of the last High turnover High assist guy on the board hardenstein what does his role look like Denny AIA perhaps he doesn't fit your Roto build it's possible it's possible but as Matt was talking about is he a guy that has Room to Grow what if you know we sometimes and and it it I think it parallels nicely to yesterday's show with Alex rickling who was arguing that Anthony Edwards has a gear we haven't seen yet and I was arguing I don't see where that gear comes from it's hard to see like with Anthony Edwards field goal percent it's kind of the the last thing that could really change where with Denny AIA and like there's a big difference here one of these guys is going early second round the other one is going late 12th round with abdia there are a few things that we pointed out in real time or I tried to point out in real time Steel's blocks probably not going to change much but the points rebounds assists that's a good trajectory his field goal percent's been improving but Avia has a big hole in his free throw percent and he's a relatively High turnover guy if either of those things fixes course correct there's a path if both and sometimes we don't see two things at the same time but you can understand why there's a shot worth taking lat in a draft on someone like that as opposed to say and I've been a big fan of like cavius calwell poop Pop I called him cavius C poop I'm leaving that in the podcast because I said on yesterday's show I have a rectal fixation and now you guys know it's true someone like kyp has almost no chance of getting above number 85 this year that's like an absolute best case scenario for him but the worst case scenario for kcp is like 120 because he's going to play Big minutes Orlando gave him a bunch of money to go play Big minutes he does what they need he spaces the floor he's great defensively Orlando loves that kind of stuff but it's not like he's going to go out there and get a dozen shots a Paul game there is no big role change that's about to happen in a lot of situations kcp is a guy worth putting on your fantasy team because maybe you have a few risks earlier in your draft or maybe on a head-to-head side if you're if you have a few risks that might miss games you need someone that you can just plug in take him in the take him in the 12th round and say you know what I can just leave this guy in he's going to play like a nth or 10th rounder all season long he going to be boring as hell but he's going to give me steals he's going to give me some threes he's going to give me free throw he's not going to ruin me anywhere and he's just going to plot along and be solid but maybe you have a team that's a little bit more solid already the 12th round take a shot on AIA maybe he doesn't fix those things but maybe there's a team out there in your league that say is punting free throws maybe his free throw stays bad and he goes to the line five times and it's 74% of them that's bad maybe that hurts your team in a way that you didn't want it to maybe your team is good at free throws but you know who isn't someone there's probably a team in your league that'll be punting foul shots or turnovers or whatever and you can go get better value so there's a lot of ways to look at these guys uh and it's always fun to hear from uh our guests especially Ultra sharp ones like Matt Lawson NBA Dynasty ADP so big thank you to Matt again uh I mean you know I agree with a number of names on that list like I couldn't even argue with him the tiniest bit on a few of them even perhaps if it might have been fun to uh just see if I could Pro him along a little bit but you could hear the knowledge I could hear the knowledge and I hope that we all enjoyed this one uh coming up later on today we're GNA have a live well okay so the show won't be live it's G to be recorded but it's going to be a live mock so it'll be a show done in real time myself Adam King will be together on that one and between two Dans Adam's show has an episode today I will be guesting on it so I can promo that today as well it'll be me it'll be Dan Titus it'll be Adam King on between two Dans we have some very funny topics coming up on that one make sure to like And subscribe I think I forgot to say that at the front end but hopefully by now you guys have figured that out hit like if you're watching on YouTube subscribe no matter where you're taking it in and if you have a moment please five star review on uh apple or Spotify it really does go a long way and thank you to everybody that's done those so far enjoy the next few hours of your delightful Wednesday I'm sure it's I'm sure it's quite delightful right now I'm Dan bbrus Dan bpis on Twitter Oldman Squad give that one a follow as well thanks again to Matt I'll see you guys in a few hours [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music]