Green Bay Packers' WR Room Breakdown: Opportunity & Utilization Using Trinity Score

Who's It Gonna Be who's it gonna be Dante Taven Wicks Christian Watson Jaden Reed Romeo dobs led by Matt laflor Jordan love came out balling in his first year is the full-time starter for the Green Bay Packers yet everybody is telling you to stay away from this situation stay away from the Packers wide receiver room we don't know which wide receiver love is going to Target everything looks the same all the target shares look the same I'm here to tell y'all hell no that ain't what you want to do when you got a quarterback like Jordan love who was ascending 4100 yards last year top seven in the NFL 32 touchdowns second in the league top 10 in qbr you don't want to fade this situation and I believe that with some of the data that we have shout out to True Media who I'm getting all this from and the tool that we've created at destination Debbie the Trinity tracker which ultimately and essentially is just weighing oportunity and usage rate for the wide receiver position irregardless of what the quarterback is is doing those things will be able to help us identify which wide receivers we want to make bets on and the beautiful thing about Trinity y'all is it's predictive everybody wants to know what tool will help solve the Trinity Score answers in fantasy football next year or this upcoming season we got that Trinity score layered over fantasy success over the last five years is hitting at a 60% clip if you're telling me right now I can get 60% odds in the market 60% odds when I'm placing a bet I'm taking that so this is tried it's true it's proven and the best thing about it y'all we are going to talk some high and lowend comps for these Green Bay Packers wide receivers using that tool I'm excited opportunity utilization the Green Bay Packers wide receivers you got to trust that Trinity let's talk ball okay let's [Music] get we're talking about the wide receiver position we have to start out looking at what the hell is going on in the NFL and where wide receivers are scoring all of their points so I want to Team WR Fantasy Points By Route start off quickly by talking about the top four routes that are deployed by the NFL teams they're scoring the most fantasy points so this is fantasy points by Route per team in the NFL the top four number one is the hitch route teams are scoring 5.7 fantasy points per game from the wide receiver position on the hitch route number two the go route screaming straight down the field 5.56 fantasy points per game by the NFL teams on the go route number three the out route 5.36 fantasy points per game on out routes and 4.7 fantasy points per game by team on the crossing route so those are the four most deployed routes by NFL teams and what they're actually scoring fantasy wise now let's take a look at what the wide receivers individually are doing on those four routes across the NFL board with a minimum of 50 targets over the past 5 years here go the top four deployed routes for individual wide receivers and scoring fantasy points number one the hitch route on average with wide receivers that have gained over 40 targets hitch route is yielding 1.34 fantasy points per Target the go route Fantasy Points Per Target by Route 1.30 the out route 1.27 The Crossing route coming in Forth at 1.08 points per game on those targeted routes now you've got some dopee receivers that are smashing those averages but across the board those are the routes that are scoring the fantasy points so you've got a historical view last five years there's about four routes that you want your wide receivers running and being targeted on because they're scoring more points than others and we know that even in last season those four routes still held true as the primary routes that were being deployed by the wide receivers and they were getting targeted on let's talk about Green Bay and what they did on those four routes on the out Route 2 20.4% of Green Bay's Route Usage the time the wide receiver was being targeted on the out route number one on out route targets for the wide receiver position in the NFL hitch route 15% of the time from Green Bay which was 13th in the league the go route 14% of the time the wide receivers were running that which was fifth in the NFL and the crossing route 9% of the time which was third in the NFL the fantasy points per game for the Green Bay Packers on those route types number one the out route 7.92 two points per game they led the league and running that route number one in the league in fantasy points per game for the wide receiver when they're targeted on the out route go route came in number two with 6.89 points per game that was fifth in the NFL Crossing route 6.2 fantasy points per game which was third in the NFL in the hitch route 6.1 fantasy points per game which was 13th in the NFL on those four routes the Green Bay Packers finish number one at the wide receiver position in fantasy scoring per game with 26 points 78 points per game and they were also number one in Red Zone wide receiver Targets on those four routes with 37 over the last five years under Matt laflor the Green Bay Packers are eighth in wide receiver scoring per game with 23.7 one points per game on those four routes when the wide receiver is targeted and on those four routes the wide receiver is playing out wide 54% of the time and in the slot 45% of the time I maintain that no two yards are created equ well every team creates different environments for players to have success and when you look at the Green Bay Packers and where they align their wide receivers tells a very very important story so on those four routes over the last five years the Green Bay Packers Slot Targets are third in the NFL at targeting the slot on those four routes the only two teams that Target the slot slot position higher on those four individual routes are the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers let's dive into the wide receivers on Green Bay and talk about how they fared in those four routes and the points per game that they put up when they were deployed and targeted on those routes in 2023 go route Jaden Reed number one in Scoring Leaders by Route scoring for the Green Bay Packers 3.14 points per game Jaden Reed was a baller out there when they asked him to run the go route and he was doing it primarily from the slot so Jaden Reed leading the way with the go route the out route which the Green Bay Packers run more than anybody else in the NFL 24 20.4% of the time Christian Watson LED them in scoring 2.19 points per game but the difference between Watson dobs and Reed literally 2.19 to 2.11 points per game they were the only three wide receivers on the Packers to average over two points per game when targeted on the out route donaven Wicks low man on the totem pole 1.35 points per game not really his Forte let's move to the crossing route where Jaden Reed once again leads the way scoring 2.39 points per game when targeted on the crossing route now Bo Melton technically is the leader with 3.28 points per game but he only had three targets so we throw him out of the subset Jaden Reed had 14 targets Wicks was the next closest with eight Crossing route targets Jaden Reed is the guy that you want and he's doing it all from the slot now we talk about the hitch route this was the number one scoring route across the NFL for teams Over The Last 5 Years 5.7 points per per game on hitch route at targets for the Green Bay Packers Bo Melton again led the way he only had eight targets so we throw him out of the subset but Romeo dobs led the way with 1.55 points per game Christian Watson 1.41 points per game and Jaden Reed low man on the totem pole 81 fantasy points per game on the hitch route so when you look at the four most deployed routes across the NFL over the last 5 years what Green Bay has done over the last 5 years go hitch out Crossing route those things yield the most points and the player that is doing that stuff on the Green Bay Packers Jaden Reed Jaden Reed Jaden Reed now let's take a look at what that totals up to be and where that puts Jaden Reed at historically when you're just focused on Historical Look at Reed those four routes here's how the points per game total shaped up for the Green Bay Packers wide receiver core number one Jaden Reed 8.45 fantasy points per game on those four targeted routes followed by Christian Watson 7.28 points per game Romeo scored 6.54 per game and Don Taven Wix 4.39 fantasy points per game on those four routes Jaden Reed led the way in targets with 62 Romeo dobs 53 Christian Watson 38 and Don Taven Wicks 36 a couple of other interesting data points that I really pay attention to is first down and touchdowns per Target this is an important metric and the leader in this category limited volume limited opportunity but this is what gives you enthusiasm and hope for Dante tavan Wix 50 50% of his caught of his receptions went for first downs or touchdowns Romeo dobs 49% Jaden Reed 40% Christian Watson 36.8% now remember where these players line up whether that's in the slot or out wide makes a big difference for the type of opportunity they get from quarterback Jordan love and on these four routes nobody dominated the slot like Jaden Reed 49 targets from the slot on those four routes Christian Watson was second with 16 Don aavan Wicks 12 and Romeo dobs low man with 10 out wide dos reign supreme with 43 targets out wide Dante Taven Wick second with 24 Christian Watson 21 Jaden Reed 13 last five years under Matt laflor Jaden Reed's 8.4 five points per game is fourth only behind Devonte Adams in 2019 2020 and 2021 so you have all this information about what routes wide receivers are running that are scoring them fantasy points what the wide on Green Bay are doing in the slot out wide and from a route participation standpoint so we've got to talk about Jordan love the quarterback are these Jordan Love Success to Routes routes that he's actually proficient in throwing well in 2023 he was tied with Jaylen herdz for the most touchdowns on hitch out and go routes with 15 he was third in the NFL tied for third in the NFL with 277 pass attempts to those routes he was first in the NFL with 114 first downs when targeting the hitch out and go route and he dropped 2,180 yards which was fourth in the NFL on those routes there's no doubt about it Romeo dobs is out there running win Sprints he led the team in routes run 212 Jaden Reed 172 Dante tavan Wicks 122 and Christian Watson 106 that's how the route participation shaped up in Green Bay those are how the routes shaped out in the NFL in Green Bay let's go to the Trinity tracker and show you how this actually appli on the field fantasy scoring and let's talk about what happened in those games and outcome bets that we need to make in 2024 now we've got the Trinity tool pulled up and I'm going to walk you through how to use this we filter this only to look at Green Bay Packers wide Trinity Tool Intro receivers I think this is more important than looking at the whole group and cluster of wide receivers across the NFL which we'll do here shortly but looking at the Packers week one through 17 this is what they were asked to do and what I call it is the wide receiver fantasy scoring they were asked to do Christian Watson led the way with a 6.55 trinity score scored 11.3 fantasy points per game you see Jaden Reed scored more than him but wasn't asked to do as much wide receiver stuff 6.44 Trinity score 13.5 points per game Romeo dobs came in third 5.45 Dante Taven Wicks 5.27 and Malik Heath way down there at 1.15 fantasy points per game now this is weeks 1 through 17 quickly I want to show you some different subsets of what was happening in Green Bay and we're going to filter this thing to start the season weeks one through three in which Weeks 1-3 Christian Watson didn't play when Christian Watson wasn't on the field this is how it looked weeks one through three for the Packers Jaden Reed led the way 7.76 Trinity score the first three weeks pretty damn good below the trend line so he should have been scoring a little bit more based on what he was doing but he was doing enough wide receiver stuff to put him in a very good range Romeo dos was second 6.8 n scoring you 14 points a game he started off the season hot there goes Wix teray and Malik Heath a little bit later down the line now let's add Christian Watson back to the fold and see what happens with the wide receiver opportunities and utilization from Matt laflor when Watson was back you see what happens he immediately jumped back to the front of the pecking order being asked to do more wide receiver stuff through weeks four through 13 of the NFL season he was Weeks 4-13 scoring about 11 fantasy points per game Reed took a significant step back dropped all the way down below five 4.3 Daven Wicks suffered as well this might have been the stretch where Jordan love was still trying to figure it out the final grouping that we're going to move to is the end of the season and see how these guys were playing as we wrapped up the final month of the season and here it is weeks 14 through 17 of the NFL season Jaden Reed skyrocketed to an 8.36 End of Season Trinity score giving us 21 and a half points per game you got Bo meldon hit hitting the board with a 77 davien Wicks 7.28 10 points per game dos fell back and no Christian Watson because he was not playing and this only accounts for the activity when the player is participating on the field so what does all of this mean the best part of the Trinity tracker is the historical data tab because that is where all of these numbers become predictive you got to remember these numbers here on the front end and I've got them written down for 6.5 6 44 and this was weeks 1 through 17 of the 2023 season that's the fantasy season now the beauty takes place when Predicting Future Success/Player Comps we switch over to the historical data tab now that we've got this tab pulled up what you're seeing are different wide receiver plots over the course of The Last 5 Years and how this works is what we must do is go get that 6.5 number let's find a 6.55 let's find somebody that was very close to Christian Watson you got some six sixes there's a 655 for Christian Wat Watson so on the high end at a 6.55 trinity score Christian Watson's Point per game total should be roughly around 15 and a half points per game on a highend which is away from the trend line if we slide down a little bit you got a 657 from Brandon iuk the following year 13.4 fantasy points per game if we go some lower Inc comps for Christian Watson in his potential range of outcome next year you also have uh who's this right here DJ Char 66 and an 86 in The Following Season got Darius Slayton he had a 66 Trinity score in 2022 scored nine fantasy points per game in The Following season and if you go real low real real low down here you've got who's this rest and power Demaryius Thomas you've got Nelson agalar 69 that's a little too high got Taylor Gabriel at a 642 and we'll talk about TG when we get to Christian W when we get to Jaden Reed so that is how you take the data from from the point per game tab right here go over to the historical data Tab and then you can go highend range outcomes or low-end range outcomes and remember at a 60% clip this is predictive of what fantasy scoring is going to look like in The Following season so Jaden Reed 6.44 Trinity score scored us 13 points per game let's look at some high-end range comps for Jaden Reed's potential outcome next season Calvin Ridley 644 exact same score as Jaden Reed in 29 19 Following season in 2020 he put up 18.8 fantasy points per game Chris Godwin right there with Jaden Reed 6.38 Trinity score in 2018 he dropped 19.7 points per game in 2019 and then you've got who is this right here there's another Godwin 65 to 173 let's go some medium range comps for Jaden Reed got another God one 653 Following Season 12.3 fantasy points per game game you also have who is this Deontay Johnson 6.4 Trinity score in 2019 he scored 20 points per game in The Following season in a lowend comp for for Jaden Reed you've got where is he at Taylor Gabriel 6.42 Trinity score in 2018 dropped nine fantasy points per game in 2019 Romeo dos 5.4 Trinity score this is not good you don't want to be sub five5 but 5.4 Trinity score for Romeo dobs that puts him in Cole Beasley category in 2018 he had a 5.49 he scored 12.3 fantasy points per game The Following season if we go some higher end comps for Romeo dobs Mike Williams scored the exact same thing Trinity wise 5.45 in 2020 dropped 15 points per game The Following season so there's a high-end comp Mike Williams for Romeo dobs and let's move on to everybody's favorite wide receiver Don tavien Wix who scored a 5.27 Trinity score in 2023 which puts him right in range and right in line with George Pickins and what he did in 2022 5.26 Trinity The Following season this year 12.3 fantasy points per game if we go highend range got Curtis Samuel in 2019 5.17 to 14.1 fantasy points per game when you're using this tab the further away you get from this line probably the less sticky it is you've got some outlier Seasons dbel Samuel of 56 Following Season he smashed 21 points per game Cooper cup up here but look at the predictability Devonte Adams in those Seasons we talked about right there 93 Trinity another Devonte Adams where you at I know you're all up there there's a 97 Trinity 96 Trinity 95 Trinity for Devonte Adams and a 94 this tool is incredible so if you're talking high-end range comps for Jaden Reed you got some 2019 Calvin Ridley vibes Christian Watson got some DJ Moore 2019 Christian Watson Vibes potentially from the Green Bay Packers Romeo dobs Mike Williams and Don Taven Wicks we're hoping he can be a part of what George Pickins was this year for us so if you're asking me which wide receiver I want to place my cards and my The Answer is...... chips and my bets on from the Green Bay Packers there's no doubt in my mind it's Jaden Reed I'd prioritize him Jaden Reed Christian Watson followed by Don Tav and Wix then Roman dos and that is not based on bias that is not based on sentiment it's based on the data I trust the Trinity and the data provided by True Media it's Ironclad baby out route hitch route go route Crossing route Jaden Reed 8.45 fantasy points per game puts him in very good company across the NFL appreciate y'all tapping in this one as we tried to decode and decipher this Green Bay Packers wide receiver room using some different tools and techniques opposed to just some of the basic stuff that's been out there and your personal opinion on which player is better or not so if you appreciated the information in this video if you want to dive in deeper comment below hit the See Y'all Next Week Thumbs Up Button like the content and subscribe to the channel until next time baby I'll know what it is trust the Trinity I'm out peace [Music]