College Football Week 1 2024 Spread Picks & Predictions | 20 games!

Intro all right it's week one we are going through 20 off the radar college football games for week one and we're going to pick them all against the spread so let's go ahead and uh and get to this all right let's go on and start it off because we're going to try and do this quickly this is a YouTube only thing I might toss this one on the podcast but we'll see all right so the games that I have not talked about on the BET us college football show which you can watch every Tuesday and Wednesday at 1:00 p.m. eastern time live and there's a link in the description for that we're going to talk about those all today so we're going to go on and start this bad boy off right here and we will start it off with Florida Atlantic going to Michigan State on Friday night uh Michigan state currently a 13 so I'm going to read all of these off from the FD sports book but I'm going to give you the best number that is currently available as I am recording this right now so we're going to do a better job with our record this year but uh and it's got to be at a widely available book just so you know so let's let's go on and and start it off here okay Florida Atlantic heads to Michigan FAU vs Michigan State State on Friday night Michigan State at FD is a 13 and a half Point favorite currently total of 45 and A2 you look at the number that I have on my screen here I've got Michigan State favored by 6.25 on this the talent composite is not that far off I like the roster that Tom Herman has especially they're starting 22 they don't have to worry about getting into their depth just yet I wonder what it's going to be like for Jonathan Smith and Company going into a brand new system a lot of new faces how can they make that thing gel if you remember what Jonathan Smith did at Oregon State his very first season it wasn't great right Aiden childes is fantastic he's a good quarterback we haven't seen him do a whole lot yet especially not as the number one guy but I think 14's too many here absolutely think 14 is too many here and it's going to rain in East Lancing on Friday I I think it's too many different variables I like Florida Atlantic and the number that you can get right now is a plus4 so I will take Florida Atlantic plus 14 in that one I feel uh I feel pretty good about it all right we move on and let's get this Western Michigan vs Wisconsin switched Western Michigan goes to Wisconsin uh current line is Wisconsin minus 23 A5 total of 56 A2 that is the most widely available number okay here's what we're going to do Western Michigan is number 15 in the country in adjusted returning production they weren't great last year you look at the success margin on the screen here they were number 102 in the country in success margin number 94 in PPA margin Wisconsin was significantly better than that Luke fickle going into year 2 significantly better Talent uh I've got him power rated way higher but at the same time I don't necessarily think that they're just going to empty the clip right Wisconsin has got some big games coming up they're not going to do anything too crazy and you still got to figure out like they named Tyler van djk the starter you got to figure out a few things here maybe take it easy with him rebuild some of that confidence I don't expect them to just throw the ball all over the place and I think Western Michigan can hang in the game for a little while build some confidence themselves the best number that you can get out there right now is Western Michigan plus 24 A2 no I don't like Walt Bell as their offensive coordinator we've talked about this but that's okay because I think that they can still hang around in this one give me Western Michigan plus 24 A2 that is the best number that I could find on the book Virginia Tech vs Vanderbilt we moved to Saturday and we're going to Nashville where Vanderbilt is going to host Virginia Tech number out there right now consensus is Vanderbilt plus 13 A5 at home total of 48 and a half on this one it's going to rain in Nashville it's going to be nasty everybody loves Virginia Tech this thing has been steamed and sat there and everybody looks K everybody loves KY in drones Etc but don't forget Clark Lee hired in Jerry Kill from New Mexico State he's an analyst here but analysts can now coach that was an NCA rule change that they came up with and he brought in Diego Pavia and a bunch of the skill position guys from a 10- win New Mexico State team now they are going to change up the offense at Vanderbilt they are going to run some crazy stuff I feel pretty good about Vanderbilt plus 13 a half that's the best number that you can get out there uh my number on this is Virginia Tech minus 6 the talent profile between these two is not that much different Vanderbilt actually has more blue chippers on their roster than Virginia Tech does they don't have as much experience but when you look at adjusted returning production number 31 for Vanderbilt number four for Virginia Tech but again Talent goes the Vanderbilt Way Clark Lee heading into year four and Brent pry heading into year three these two I don't think these two teams are two touchdowns off I feel pretty good about Vanderbilt being able to put up some points but also with their defense being to slow or being able to slow down kirn drones so go ahead and give me Vanderbilt plus the 13 and a UConn vs Maryland half on that one moving up to College Park Maryland a 20 and A2 Point favorite at home over the Yukon Huskies total is 44 A2 on this one and I will tell you I like Maryland more and more and even though my number on this is only Maryland minus 16. 819 this number was at what 24 at one point and it's been bet all the way down to 20 and A2 I found a 20 out there there's actually a couple of them for whatever reason there's a lot of love on Jim MOA and the Yukon Huskies I think Maryland still the significantly more talented team I think this Maryland defense is legit when you look at what I've got them rated as far as their defensive rank number 27 there going up against the Yukon offense that I've got ranked number 125 I don't know if Yukon scores so in that case I don't think Maryland has the score a lot the total again on this is 44 a half I'd probably go under if only because I think that this game could end up something along the lines of 31 to7 you know something like that so yeah and when this thing was 2122 I didn't feel as good about it but there are so many people on Yukon right now I'm uh I'm going to take Maryland minus 20 that is the best number that we can get for that one let's keep on going Kent State vs Pitt game number five Kent State goes to pit and pit currently a 24 and a half Point favorite at home total of 55 and a half yes pit should dominate these guys Kint state was terrible but but but I think it is a new day Eli Holstein is going to be the new starting quarterback for pit I don't think they're going to show a whole lot in this game I think Kent State will be able to put up at least a touchdown maybe 10 points and if they're able to do that 24 and a half feels like too much pit has got Cincinnati next week that's who they're going to be saving stuff for I don't think you're going to see a whole lot of the new offense that they've installed there in this game you're going to get some reps you're going to get some very vanilla calls but give me a Kint State K State plus 24 and a half is the best number that is out there if you're wanting to bet um the uh the golden flashes that's who it is good gracious so give me uh give me Kint State plus 24 and a half on that uh I think pit wins the game but I think that Kint State can certainly stay within 24 and a half so uh so I feel okay about that uh don't forget check out three dog Thursday just did that just a little bit ago with my buddy TJ Reeves uh it's right here on the YouTube channel we have a good time we only pick underdogs on the show we do three each and it's every single week now I'm not necessarily on it every week but TJ is and uh and I will hop on it most of the time so I did today I've started off the season with him three straight years I believe it's a it's a good time and uh and we had a fantastic fantastic time oh if you haven't already subscribe to the podcast would certainly appreciate that but subscribe to the Pod and uh subscribe to the YouTube channel hit the like button if you would and hit that notification Bell that would certainly help us out if you want some bonus content I give out picks I give out stats I give out projections I give out bonus podcasts uh on betting cfb.isd I do continue to do stuff in the off season so I would recommend if you want me unfiltered uncensored go ahead and do that go ahead and check that out all right carrying on and we are moving ahead let's go to Columbus akan visiting Ohio Akron vs Ohio State State and the number right now is 48 and a half in favor of Ohio State it has come down two points at most places uh 58 A5 is the total on this I this is a weird one right you there's nothing on this sheet that you're seeing right over here there's nothing there that would show you that akan stands any kind of a chance in this game right I've got Ohio state with a 99.41% chance to win the game Talent composite all over Ohio State power rating returning production everything everything leans Ohio state but I am of the belief that the new quarterback Ben Finley can at least get a seven on the board for akan even against this defense and the reason for that is because I don't think that you were going to see these Ohio State starters for that long they got some big games coming up relatively early in the year week four week five I think Akon's going to at least try and get points on the board if they do that knowing how Chip Kelly runs his offense Etc you see my number so how State minus 38 if Chip Kelly is going to run the ball a lot and they they might just completely run over him and go for a 100 yards every single time they run the ball it might be that lopsided but my bet is on they run clock and this game gets over with in about three hours that's what I'm thinking is going to happen if that is the case 50 and a half is too many points give me akan plus the 50 and a half on that one all right we carry it on let's go to Austin Texas where the Colorado State vs Texas Texas Longhorns are going to host the Colorado State Rams and number right now is 31 and A2 now this thing was at 35 35 and A2 at one point not that long ago it has been steamed it got sent out by a couple of different big groups and um and at that that point yes I totally understand it 31 1/2 it went through that key of 32 uh 35 1/2 went through the key number of 35 right so Texas has to go to Michigan next week the backup quarterback for Texas of course is Arch Manning Arch is going to play in this game and he's going to be fantastic it's going to be good stuff um they're not going to fully shut everything down they're going to want to see what they got but also they got to work in some running backs remember their two of their running backs are out with injuries for the season and if that is the case yeah they might be in trouble they might be in trouble uh so they're going to want to get some running backs some reps if that is what they're going to do against Colorado state which they should be able to run on Colorado State even with like a third string guy if they do that I'm going to take Colorado State I think it'll be a shorter game Colorado State can put up points especially on a new look Texas defense no the talent composite doesn't say that you get there uh but you look at the plays per game Colorado State likes to go fast Texas normally relatively fast but I'm not expecting a whole lot there so I I think I think we're going to see a lot of running the ball building up these guys getting them some reps so that they have some experience before they go to Michigan next week uh give me the best number I got out there was Colorado State plus 33 and a half so I will take that 33 and a half give me the Rams give me the Rams FIU vs Indiana I'm feeling good about it let's go to Bloomington Bloomington Indiana and the hooers are going to host FIU on Saturday Indiana a 21 and a half Point favorite total of 51 A2 my number on this is actually closer to Indiana by 12 and I've gone back and forth on this one but Mike McIntyre can coach he's in year three at FIU no they don't have great talent not in the slightest and Kurt cetti is an absolute dog they beat people to death but I don't think you're going to see that in game number one I think there's going to be some jelling there's going to be some figuring things out I think that cetti and Company are going to play stuff a little close to the vest they got UCLA coming up really soon don't waste it all on FIU a team that you can handle pretty easily and the fact that this is through the key number of 21 I'm going to roll with FIU we're betting a lot of dogs in week one but FIU plus 21 a half seems like the right move to me so I'm GNA feel pretty good about that I uh I think that we have got I think we got a spot here in a couple of different spots because you do have some pretty big early season games Indiana's going to want that UCLA game a lot more than this one I'll take FIU plus the 21 and a half uh for whatever reason this year my numbers love these G5 teams absolutely love them and I have not been able to figure that out I haven't found nearly the advantage that I thought that I was going to with some of Eastern Michigan vs UMass these okay let's go to Massachusetts UMass is hosting Eastern Michigan and UMass currently a two and a half Point favorite now this sat at three for a while earlier this week but you had tunes and you had Ras come out and go back and forth and blah blah blah um but Elliott I think gave out Eastern Michigan look if you've watched me for any amount of time cuz we've been do the show since 2016 we've been doing the YouTube version since 2018 if you have been watching for any amount of time you know how much I love Chris kraton and what he does with Eastern Michigan ipolani is impossible to recruit to you cannot get dudes there yes UMass has way more Talent number 82 in Talent composite because the Don Brown has been bringing in some B4 transfers I get it but Eastern Michigan yes their numbers are bad it's ET Etc but their defense is a pack of wild vicious dogs they will fight you in the street before the ball game that is the kind of team that they've got and I freaking love it so there is no chance that you were ever going to get me to pick against Eastern Michigan especially as a road dog where Chris kraton has been fantastic so the total is 49 and a half on this Massachusetts UMass favored by 2 and A2 I'm going to take Eastern Michigan plus the two and a half on the road because I like the coach that's really about it my number on this is just about a pick them but I still feel good I still feel good about it all Ohio vs Syracuse right game number 10 that's right that's right game number 10 Syracuse a 17 and A2 Point home favorite over Ohio the Bobcats have won 20 games in the last 2 years they are fantastic but they are number 125 in adjusted returning production and they brought up a bunch of FCS dudes and division 2 Guys and whatnot and they're trying something different they were number 12 in success margin last year number 23 in PPA margin that's predicted points added they were not explosive they ran very few plays for like per game Fran Brown really upped the talent here you bring in Kyle mcord you bring in they've got a bunch of new transfers in a bunch of weapons for him I think the line of scrimmage is going to be a drastic difference here this number was at what 14 and a half or 14 over the summer it might have been 13 uh but it has got it is it was 13 it was 13 when it opened it's it's been all Syracuse money and I'm going to keep siding on that I don't think Ohio is going to be good this year I think Syracuse is going to they I think they're going to be a lot better they're not going to be some fantastic team I mean you see I've got them power rated number 65 but I've got Ohio number 110 so while my number on this for whatever reason is only Syracuse by nine I'm not going to trust the number and and if you continue to watch these through the year you're going to understand that we don't always side with the number and so I don't like Ohio this year I'm going to side with Syracuse I think they look they got Tech next week but I don't think that they're going to have to do a whole lot to get to the 17 and A2 number 21 to3 28 to 10 whatever gets us to cover the 17 and A2 I'll take that give me Syracuse minus 17 and half on that all right write down our times let me tell you about tickets TicketSmarter.com - WCE10 or WCE20 marter that's right tickets are always expensive especially for the games this weekend there's some huge games Notre Dame Texas A&M U LSU USC and Vegas but after that you got Texas Michigan next week you got Alabama Wisconsin in week three you go to week four week five week five you got Bama Georgia like these games are expensive to get into do yourself a favor if you're going to buy the tickets anyway save some money it's a trusted thirdparty Source here with ticketsmarter ticketsmarter.com is where you want to go and uh and you can use promo codes wc10 that's wc10 is going to get 10 bucks off an order of $100 more or WCE 20 that's wc20 that's going to get you $20 off an order of $300 or more if you're in Memphis and you want to go see Justin Timberlake later on in the uh in the fall in November or whenever it is yeah save some money you want to go to one of these football games save some money and you can do it every single time this is not a one-time sign up bonus you can use the promo code every single time that you buy tickets so make sure you do that I've bought tickets from them it's been fantastic no issues whatsoever they are incredibly trustworthy and their customer service is fantastic so do yourself a favor think Smarter with ticketsmarter.com next up oh reminder like the video subscribe to the channel and go visit betting cfb.isd Miami (OH) vs Northwestern boom Northwestern in their brand new stadium hosting the Miami Red Hawks that's Miami of Ohio Northwestern right now favored by three and A2 uh 39 A2 is the total at I guess you could say the biggest sports book that's out there uh the most widely accessible the one that's got the biggest market share whatever uh but that's that's just the Baseline for what we're doing because remember we are picking the best numbers Northwest Western uh way better Talent right now we we all saw what Miami Ohio did last year they won the MAC they had a really awesome bowl game against App State they bring back their quarterback Gabbert but they lost some other dudes too they lost Amos the running back they lost Nicholson their kicker uh and their kicker was a big part of what they were doing last year Miami of Ohio really really slow really slow but if it's not a big number that doesn't NE necessarily matter uh both of these teams good on defense like both of these teams not great on offense but Northwestern does have Zack Luhan coming in from South Dakota State I don't know what to think about the Northwestern quarterback situation you know you got helinski there you bring in Mike Wright from Mississippi State formerly of Vanderbilt you remember him in that game against Hawaii in week zero years and years ago where he ran for four billion yards um I think they might get kind of creative and I think that Northwestern is going to be pumped up for their small stadium that holds like 15,000 right there on Lake Michigan I am excited about this give me Northwestern the best I could find was a three out there and that's what I'm going to take I already bet this at two and a half yesterday but I'll still take the three because I think Northwestern is just an overall better football team now I do think the Northwestern likely to go under their win total but but I do like him in the spot I think Miami of Ohio going to have some some Growing Pains if you will so yes give me give me Northwestern minus the three on Boise State vs Georgia Southern that okay we go down to Statesboro Statesboro Georgia that's right Georgia Southern is hosting Boise State and the number is 12 A2 right now in favor of Boise this number was at 10 maybe 9 and 1 half back a month ago couple months ago whatever it was total of 57 and a half here Georgia Southern named JC French the quarterback and not a lot of experience there everybody assumed that it was going to be Dexter Williams who transferred in from Indiana Dexter Williams cannot throw the ball there for what Ryan appan and Klay hton are doing with the the air raid it would not have worked with him as the quarterback so we didn't know if they were going to try and change the offense Etc da d da if you got a dude back there that can actually fling it a little bit then Georgia Southern's going to be able to score some I don't really trust the Boise State Defense yet um they're number two in adjusted returning production but I've got them number 45 in average defensive rank I don't think that their defense is going to be able to completely shut down Georgia Southern I think it might get kind of pointy and if it gets kind of pointy I feel like 12 and a half 13 might be too much so that's what I'm going to roll with Georgia Southern plus 13 at home it's going to be hot I mean it's going to be 95 walking into a wet blanket kind of hot so is Boise super used to that no but also we've seen them go down to Tallahassee and beat Florida State or in Jacksonville or wherever that was um I know that they've done this in the past but Spencer Danielson now the official head coach dirt cutter in that offense I think are going to be moving um madx Madson at quarterback like he he was good in spots but I do think that this is a relatively difficult game you see my number on this is actually Boise minus 8 and a half 13 feels like too much 13 feels like too much so I am going to take Georgia Southern plus the 13 there all right I'll try and speed this Old Dominion vs South Carolina up so we can get through these relatively quickly Old Dominion heads to South Carolina South Carolina favored by 20 and a half total of 52 and a half on this now there are some 21s out there and that's exactly what we're going to do Talent composite is a complete joke on this yet number 21 for South Carolina against number 128 for Ricky Ronnie and the Old Dominion monarchs I'm still going to ride with Old Dominion here to cover 21 on this and the reason behind that they both like to move up and down the field South Carolina has a new quarterback in Lenor sellers they got some things to figure out with chemistry and whatnot with a bunch of new faces for South Carolina it's the same thing with Old Dominion but 21 points I'm expecting a lot of running I think it's a short ball game because South Carolina just wants to keep everybody healthy as they head to SEC play next week against Kentucky reminder we're going to talk Kentucky in a minute I think that Old Dominion can hang around in this game I don't think you're going to see a bunch of special teams touchdowns that kind of stuff that South Carolina was able to do against Georgia State a couple of years ago in order to get the cover because they had to block a punt to get the cover for me uh I don't think you're going to see that this time I think Old Dominion I like Ricky Ronnie I like what he's doing uh they are explosive they always find a way to generate some explosive plays that are going to get some points on the board and if that's the case that's perfect because if I've got plus 21 in my pocket I'm going to feel all right I think there's no chance that they win the game but they always put a scare into people they always play tight games so give me Old Dominion plus 21 on that North Texas vs South Alabama one only a minute 45 on that game not bad North Texas goes to South Alabama South Alabama currently a 6 and 1 Half Point favorite consensus 64 and a half is your total on this major Apple White is the new head coach here for South Alabama of course Kane wck headed to Alabama as their co- defensive coordinator um South Alabama's numbers were significantly better than their record was last season lot not a lot of plays per game but they were number 25 in success margin number 20 in predicted points added margin number 19 in explosive margin you get it but not a lot of turning production here I still think with the continuity I think you're going to see some good things out of South Alabama I'm not the biggest proponent for major Apple white but also Eric Morris I mean neither one of these teams is bringing back a ton of returning production Eric Morris wants to score major Apple White wants to score I think we're going to see some good things out of both of these teams but this thing is immobile and North Texas I'd wonder what their quarter back situation is going to look look like I don't I don't believe that Chandler Morris is going to start right off the bat and if that's the case yeah I'm going to take South Alabama minus the five I like Gio Lopez he is their new quarterback down there dude's a stud absolute stud I expect big things the best number I could find was actually a point and a half off of the consensus uh South Alabama minus 5 on this and obviously you can go to Action Network bet stamp or whatever and search for the best line make sure you shop that's the smartest thing you can do shop your numbers shop your numbers all right let's go to Western Kentucky vs Alabama Tuscaloosa Saturday night Alabama favored by 31 A2 total of 59 a half over Western Kentucky The cusa Darlings as you can see we got big red on the screen here feeling good with that old Alabama logo as well and this one has bounced around quite a bit it was 32 and A2 it got all the way down to 30 at one point it's been bought back up etc etc da big Talent difference again I think that the coaches who are problem solvers are going to be able to the problem solving coaches are going to be able to do basically whatever they want to now I don't think that kayin dor is going to use a lot of his gimmicks or any of that kind of stuff because I don't think he's going to have to the line play for Alabama in this game is going to dwarf what you see from Western Kentucky at the same time Bama's got South Florida next week they got Wisconsin the week after that vanilla game plan but when you got a running back stable like Alabama does I don't think the Western Kentucky defensive line is going to be able to stack up it might get ugly so if that is the case and we have seen kayin deore put some points on teams before um by just running the same play over and over and over and basically what he can do or what he will do I would assume because I've seen him do it before in a game like this he will find a relatively easy play that the defense cannot stop and he will go back to it over and over and over and they will score and they will score and they will score and that's what I think they're going to do here so Alabama minus 31 a half on this that was game number 15 uh like the video subscribe to the channel tell your friends about it make sure and visit betting cfb.isd UNLV vs Houston let's go to Houston where the Cougars the Houston Cougars are going to be hosting UNLV UNLV a two and a half Point dog on the road here uh total is sitting at 54 a half and Houston's got a ridiculous schedule absolutely ridiculous this thing's under a field goal Barry odm I like his team not high on the defense although he does have a ton of upper classmen that are starting for his defense and it's the second year in their system so that does feel pretty good same with Brennan Mar and they kept their offensive coordinator that go- go offense is really really fun but they had to change over their quarterback and a few of their skill guys they still got Ricky White uh Matthew saloka Soka sloka FCS guy that came in can absolutely fling it like I you know could be a lot of fun this year however I don't think that their defense is going to be able to stop Houston's offensive line and Donovan Smith and if it's not Donovan Smith it might be Zeon Chris you might see both of them in this game because I think both of them fit wiie Fritz well Chris I think fits Fritz's offense a little bit better but this a fun coaching matchup it's a good time I already bet UNLV plus three way back win and the reason that I bet that was because I saw a video of Barry odm riding a ball I put pizza money on this thing it was nothing but as far as an actual like one unit play what I would do right now when I've looked at the matchup like legitimately yeah I'm going Houston Houston the best number I could find was Houston minus one and a half so a full point off of what the the market consensus is but I think the Cougars are going to get this done at home this is a big spot for Houston uh for Willie Fritz to go going and get the the ball rolling because you're going to need one of these if you're going to be able to get to your win total you got to be able to get games like this at home um I think the offense is going to be what gets them over the top because I do think Donovan Smith is more talented than uh just about anybody that's on yov uh yovi's Team other than Ricky White right that's that's my guess on it so so yes give me Houston minus the two and a half and we move ahead to game number what is this 17 yes game Nevada vs Troy 17 and we're going down to Troy Alabama the Troy Trojans are hosting the Nevada Wolf Pack who played just last week and Nevada looked pretty good against SMU Jeff Cho the new coach there installed that Kansas offense in the off season this misdirection a lot of motion counter stuff smu's defense was over aggressive couldn't get them off the field and and yeah like I I don't think they need chubba to be good I think the guy they got back there at quarterback is good right now however you got that game where you lose it at the last minute at home last week you've already played now you got to go from Nevada all the way to lower Alabama and Troy has just been sitting there waiting and Gerard Parker is the new coach there uh the total on this is 45 and a half Troy favored by nine and a half that is the consensus pretty much everywhere but you can get numbers all over the place if you like Nevada you can get a 13 and a half out there which is wild to me that it is that far off of the market but you can also get an eight and a half if you like Troy and that's the direction that we're going to go here Troy was pretty good last year they are dead last in an adjusted returning production but I think that they got some good pieces if you go and look at the roster which by the way let me go ahead and recommend CFB Winning Edge you can go to campus the number two Canton c n t n.com and and uh look you got to pay a subscription fee but it is well worth it because Nick does a fantastic job keeping those rosters updated on week toe basis you will know what the depth chart is you'll know what the experience level is you'll know how many snaps they play all that kind of stuff you'll be able to figure all that stuff out and I like what Troy's got I part of me wonders if Nevada kind of put everything out there to be able to get that win against SMU last week if they did Troy's going to know what they're doing I'm interested do I think Gerard Parker is great no but I do think that Troy at home in week one against a uh not super talented Nevada team I think that they can cover this number so give me Troy minus the eight and a half on that one next up I'm writing all my times down so we can do the chapters on YouTube you guys know what we're doing I feel like I'm Southern Miss vs Kentucky breaking the fourth wall by explaining to you exactly how how I do this show because it is a oneman show and if you want to like the video that's going to help me out so do that and tell your friends about it but again let's uh let's talk about Southern Miss at Kentucky it's in Lexington Saturday night and next week Kentucky has got to play South Carolina that's a big SEC spot I don't think there is a single coach on the planet that dislikes will Hall nobody likes to run the score up on this guy and that is not my game there's my game mislabeled what do you know okay anyway everybody likes will hall right yes Kentucky is significantly more talented but that number is 27 A2 consensus right now so that's the market number uh 49 a half is the total on this my number on it is 20 there's nothing that says that Kentucky would not cover 27 a half right other than the fact that my numbers just seem to like G5 schools for whatever reason this year and obviously the power ratings and whatnot will get adjusted as we move along but still uh lot of love for the g5s I think that this is going to be a short game I don't think you're going to see a lot of Brock Vandergriff throwing the the football all over the place yes Bush hamon is coming in but Bush hamon also understands how to utilize running backs and how to utilize an offensive line he will keep the game short in my opinion these are all get out of Dodge kind of games and that's what they're going to do I expect Southern Mist to be able to cover I found a 28 out there that is a key number four touchdowns 38 to 10 sound reasonable I mean that that sounds good to me so if I can do that that's a push I think it could be even closer than that give me a 38 to 14 whatever it is run the ball run the clock I think Kentucky does that Mark stops does that they are much more worried about South Carolina next week as opposed to Southern Miss this week they're going to win the game it just depends on what score they want to name it and that's uh I think that's what they're going to do here so give me Southern Miss plus 28 all right we got two more New Mexico vs Arizona games and then we'll do a recap New Mexico at Arizona oh yes oh yes New Mexico looked pretty good last week against Montana State up until that fourth quarter right gave up 21 unanswered in that fourth quarter to lose the game outright heartbreaking loss at home in game number one for Bronco minhaal and of course the offensive coordinator Jason Beck there Arizona been sitting back waiting brand new head coach Brent Brennan you got Dino babers in there as the new offensive coordinator defense was actually pretty decent last year for Jed fish and Company they uh they are number 46 in adjusted returning production they kept Noah ffid the quarterback there um it's a pretty big number on this 31 A2 with a total of 58 and A2 and you know that I've been taking some pretty big underdogs to be able to stay within a certain number but I think we've all heard the stat now about how ridiculous it's like 63% on FBS teams covering against other FBS teams that have played the week before if you have not played and you're playing a team that already has played you're hitting like 63% against the spread I think Arizona is going to come out yes my number is less because again my number is like G5 teams for whatever reason this year but I think that Arizona is going to cover and I found a 30 out there again shop your numbers but I found a 30 for Arizona I think they're going to put up a lot of points I think this offense is going to start clicking right off the bat and this defense for New Mexico is not great Montana State made them look foolish with backup running backs so if that is the case I think Arizona's going to run the ball some I also think that Arizona is going to throw it and make sure that they are clicking on all cylinders before the Friday night game in week three when they go to Kansas State so they're not going to show a whole lot it'll still be vanilla stuff but I think they will throw the ball a little bit because Brent Brennan and Dino bapers want to uh they want to do good stuff and Dino likes to play Fast And if you play fast you're going to get more plays in so I will uh I will side with Arizona minus 30 on this one all right next one up and last one for today Wyoming vs Arizona State Wyoming is hosting Arizona State and currently currently the market has it Arizona State minus 6 and a half total of 48 and a half on this one okay I like Kenny Dillingham a lot um his OC is Marcus Ayo who was at UNLV Jay saille was the defensive coordinator at Wyoming he takes over as the off or not the office he takes over as the head coach he is still going to be involved somewhat with the defense Aaron bow who is Craig Bow's son is going to be taking over as DC Wyoming was able to handle UNLV almost with no issue when Marcus aoo was at UNLV they got that offense down they knew what they were doing is Wyoming the most talented team in the country absolutely not Arizona State somehow somehow someway you look at that 247 Talent composite and they are number 30 in the talent composite whyoming is number 122 but Wyoming has a bunch of dudes that fit into a system that J sville is going to continue to run at Wyoming my number on this is actually Arizona State minus 1.6 so way off the market here and I was able to find a Wyoming plus seven and a half because I I think it's going to keep steaming the opposite direction I think that people think Arizona state is going to handle this and it reminds me so much of Texas State not Texas State Texas Tech going to Wyoming to start last year and they had way more talent and they seem to be the way better team and they were a big 12 Dark Horse and blah blah blah blah and Wyoming was able to handle them because they've got a system because they believed and it is an absolute home field advantage for Wyoming in laramy so give me Wyoming plus the seven and a half I feel good about about it I feel great about Wyoming this weekend hopefully you do too all right let's recap it I'll read off the whole sheet to you give me Florida Atlantic plus 14 Western Michigan plus 24 and a half oh I didn't write my time down of course I didn't let's try it again try the recap again and if you want to go back through the chapters you can do that Florida Atlantic plus 14 on Friday Western Michigan plus 24 A2 also on Friday Friday Vanderbilt at home plus 13 12 against Virginia Tech Maryland minus 20 against Yukon I like Kent State plus 24 A2 at pit I will take akan plus 50 A2 against Ohio State Colorado State plus 33 and A2 against Texas I will take FIU plus 21 a half against Indiana Eastern Michigan plus 2 and a half against UMass I like Syracuse - 17 12 at home against Ohio Northwestern minus three at home against Miami of Ohio um Georgia Southern plus 13 at home against Boise Old Dominion plus 21 at South Carolina South Alabama minus5 at home against North Texas Alabama minus 31 A5 against Western Kentucky Houston minus one and a half at home against UNLV Troy minus 8 and A2 at home against Nevada I like Southern Miss plus 28 at Kentucky I like Arizona minus 30 at home against New Mexico and I will take Wyoming plus 72 at home against Arizona State what a wonderful ride it has been and look at that under 45 minutes at least as far as recording time goes but we're going to tag on the uh the outro in just a minute but look do me a favor go sign up at betting cfb.isd three Thursday it's right here on the channel comes out every Thursday afternoon and uh yeah follow me on X at Gary WCE we're looking forward to keeping this going I am so excited let's hit some more Milestones here with the channel Let's uh let's keep growing this thing and tell your friends about it like the video subscribe to the channel subscribe to the podcast as well but boy I am so excited for college football to be back hopefully you guys are as well we'll see you again on the next one take care of yourself take care of each other God bless college football and hopefully all of your tickets cash this week thanks for listening to winning cures everything make sure and follow me on Twitter @gary WCE if you want to toss in a question you can email me Gary winning cures everything.com make sure and hit that subscribe button and we'll see you next time [Music]