Who will win the ACC? 2024 College Football Preview & Season Predictions

Intro carrying on with the 2024 conference previews and we move into the ACC the Atlantic Coast Conference who people believe is just teetering on the brink of falling apart kind of like the Pack 12 now I don't necessarily agree with that I think that they had the advantage of learning from the pack 12's failures which is why they brought in SMU Cal and Stanford and and they might have a better grasp of what the conference is worth without their two football Bell cows going forward but regardless this is a pretty weak League this season and the schedule's open up some possibilities not only for the ACC Championship but potentially for the cfp as well now before we get into it you should know by now like the video subscribe to the channel of course And subscribe to the podcast because I do shows over there that you're not going to be able to get here on the YouTube page and of course make sure and tell me in the comments what you think about all these teams who's going to win the conference who's making the cfp who's going over under all that kind of stuff if you want to keep up with my bonus content during the season uh my picks as I make them bonus podcasts uh stats projections all that kind of stuff you can sign up at betting cfb.isd cfb.isd I'm going to give you the number of projected wins from my numbers so let's go ahead and dive into it we'll start off with the Boston College Eagles current win total is 4 a half that number has not moved minus 152 Boston College to go over that's 6.32% probability and plus 124 to go under that is 44.6 4% probability conference odds 170 to1 that's right 58% probability now for why they might go over their win total they've got offensive Firepower right you got Dynamic Playmakers Thomas castalanos at quarterback you got a deep running back room led by Kai robishaw and Trea Ward BC's offense especially under Bill o'briant it's got the potential to be pretty explosive especially if castalanos improves as a passer right solid foundation here you got the offensive line that's anchored by standout right tackle azy trapilo uh they're experienced they should provide stability um and it it should maybe allow BC to control the tempo of some of these games here and then of course defensive experience the defense returns a veteran too deep you got new additions like defensive back transfers from Ohio State um the unit has got the experience and the talent to step up uh especially if they can turn last year's pressure into more sacks if they can get home to the quarterback a little more defense should be pretty good now for why they might go under it's a tough schedule right you got early Road games at Florida state Missouri you got later matchups against Louisville and Virginia Tech here uh the schedule's a gauntlet it there's no real way to build momentum when you look at this thing even their non-conference schedule they got Michigan State that's at home Western Kentucky that's a team that could sneak up and get you yeah it's a it's a tricky situation uh quarterback uncertainty if castalano struggles uh you know if he's not a a dropback passer which we certainly know he's not but if he doesn't develop that passing game and he's forced into a style that doesn't play to his strengths yeah that's going to limit the ability to win some close games that's going to limit the ability to win games at all right uh there are defensive concerns I know I talked about defense being experienced and whatnot but um there's a lack of a consistent pass rush last year they were able to pressure some but they didn't get home very often and uh and they're going to rely on a lot of transfers this year so going up against some of these stronger ACC offenses it's going to be kind of difficult uh their rating is number 66 nationally conference rating is number 13 I've got him at 4.99 projected wins which is just over the four and a half um and you know I've got him five games as a favorite I've got him in eight toss-up games there are some spots here where uh they could find some wins on the schedule I I'm curious to see what style Bill O'Brien ends up going with so we'll we'll be paying attention to Boston College especially in that Monday night week one game on to the Cal Bears the Cal Golden Cal Bears if you will current win total 6 and a half odds of plus 146 to go over that is 4.65% % probability and minus 180 to go under that is 64.29% so certainly the under is the favorite here uh conference odds are 85 to1 that's a probability of 1.16% now for wcow might go over their win total offense of potential you got Jaden a at running back he is a Hos to say the least you get the uh the quarterback battle Fernando Mendoza I think is probably going to be the guy but Chandler Rogers transferred in from North Texas and he was fantastic there last year uh was great at ULM before that so their offense primed to take a significant leap uh we'll see they've got a new offensive coordinator uh but you've got the addition of talented transfer receivers right Tobias Maryweather uh Mikey Matthews as well they improved defense it's a Justin WX defense they weren't great last year I would expect them to bounce back this year uh you got seven starters back on defense you got a potential breakout star linebacker uh Cade ulali ului hope I'm saying that right uh they add some pretty impactful transfers as well it gives Cal a a solid foundation to improve on um you know we we'll see what that ends up meaning and they've got a fairly favorable schedule I guess you could say it's reasonable uh the travel is pretty grueling but you know compared to last year I think it's a little more manageable you got several winnable games against some mid-tier ACC teams uh you got a non-conference late that's not overly daunting yeah you got to go to Auburn but you got San Diego State at home um UC Davis should be able to handle that one as well like would it shock anybody if C goes down to Auburn and and wins that game against T freeze it's a bunch of freshman at Auburn who knows as for why they might go under their win total you got a brutal travel schedule uh the extensive travel across the country multiple times could absolutely wear this team down um and who knows what they're going to look like later on in the season I mean it you're going from home game in Berkeley to Auburn Alabama back to Berkeley down to Tallahassee you got a bue week then you get Miami at home you fly all the way over to pit you got NC State and Oregon State at home you fly all the way over to North Carolina to take on Wake Forest and then at the end of the year you got to go to Dallas I mean it's it's brutal definitely brutal uh you got defensive concerns here right we talked about how we expect them to be a little bit better yeah they got returning experience but they were 84th in s SP plus last year um what are they going to do against of these high-powered offenses you don't have many pass rushers here that I've seen so I'm I'm curious and then of course we talked about the options a quarterback but that does lend itself to a little bit of uncertainty right if if neither one of those guys takes control of the starting quarterback position uh Mendoza or Rogers uh what is the offense going to do I mean you should be able to just hand off to a most of the time but I don't know if that's going to work against Auburn I don't think it's going to work against Florida State that's uh that's too pretty good defensive lines there so we'll we'll see what the offense ends up uh ends up looking like their rating I've got them number 53 in the country conference rating number 10 I've got him 6.05 projected wins which is slightly under and uh and then you got seven games as a favorite here and seven tossup games so toss-ups coin flips games that are within one possession that is uh that is the way it goes all right we move on the Clemson Tigers current win total is 8 and 1/2 Clemson that is down from the 9 and 1 half opener odds ofus 172 to go over that 63.2 4% probability and plus 140 to go under that's 41.67% uh to win the conference they are plus 370 that's 21.28% so they are up there in the top tier to win the league for why they might go over that 8 and a half win total you got some returning offensive Talent Kade kumnick is back Phil mafa is an absolute Workhorse at running back you got a solid offensive line coming back and Matt Luke is a beast as an offensive line coach uh Clemson's offense has got the potential to take a step forward right it's it's Garrett Riley's second year as OC uh you got some young receivers Bryant Wesco TJ Moore those guys have been hyped up pretty good if they can live up to that this offense could be pretty good uh you got defensive DED right you lost some key players but the defense is stacked with young Talent uh particularly at the secondary positions in uh in that linebacker uh you got players like Barrett Carter khil Barnes guys like that they could anchor uh the acc's one of the acc's Tope units there uh favorable schedule of course you see a bunch of green on here that means uh it's a lot of games where they're projected to be favored by more than one possession um you got tough games against Georgia and you know Florida State other than that yeah you play at Virginia Tech but you're a almost touchdown favorite there NC State's coming in I mean this is a pretty favorable schedule you got a lot of key conference games at home uh we we shall see we shall see what they look like as for why they might go under you do have a little bit of quarterback uncertainty like Kade kumnick is the guy but he was pretty inconsistent last year uh you got a lack of proven Playmakers at wide receiver um and if the injury bug strikes again you know that could be a problem you got some defensive regression potentially right the loss of experienced leaders you got Jeremiah troter gone uh you got a lack of proven depth on the defensive line that could lead to struggles against some more Dynamic offenses particularly in some of these critical ACC games uh but we'll we'll see what that looks like and then of course there's no transfer help right like dbos Sweeney refuses to use the transfer portal and uh like I get it but you're not addressing key weaknesses while other teams are you know could have used maybe some more offensive lineman could have used maybe another quarterback it leaves a very little margin for error if there's injuries or anything else if everybody else is using something to their advantage and you're not that's uh that's a problem that's a problem I've got him rated number 14 in the country conference rating I've got them at number two projected wins here I've got 8.85 so I've got them slightly over 10 games as a favorite or as a projected favorite and I've got three tossup games the toss-ups uh at Florida State Louisville at home we'll see if the quarterback's healthy for Louisville by the time we get to November and then at Virginia Tech those uh those games should be interesting uh but am I'm curious about Clemson this year I I like Dabo I want to see this uh this school do well we'll see what they look like the Duke Blue Devils are up next Duke current win total 5 and a half that's down from the six and a half opener got a new coach here got a new coach odds of plus 104 to go over that's 49.0 2% probability and minus 128 to go under that probability is 56.14100 [Music] conference odds are 150 to1 probability of 66% so not great Duke is probably not going to win the conference even if Malik Murphy Goes Bananas right now for w Duke might go over the five and a half Malik Murphy transferred him from Texas got a strong arm he's mobile he could be a CH a gamechanging quarterback uh if you watch the Texas Spring Game in 2023 I mean he was he looked lights out I mean he was unbelievable uh they got a talented receiving Target and Jordan Moore Duke's offense might have enough Firepower to compete especially with a schedule like this who knows they do have an experiened defense right despite the turnover uh they do bring some key Playmakers back like uh like linebacker uh Trey Freeman and uh and Nick Morris Jr they got a solid secondary led by Jaylen Stinson and uh Chandler Rivers uh that that could keep games close give Duke a chance to win you know some pretty tight contests here and then of course it's a manageable schedule Duke's non-conference schedule is is favorable you got winnable games here Elon Northwestern Yukon and Middle Tennessee could you get to 4-0 right off the bat and then you got North Carolina home right after that in a game at Georgia Tech that you should have a chance in I don't I don't see why they couldn't get off to a pretty quick start here um and then of course you ride the momentum for some of these tougher ACC matchups on the back half now as for why they might go under the win total offensive line problems right five of the seven starting offensive lineman are gone from last year uh so are they going to be able to protect Malik Murphy or not we'll see like who knows what happens there you got the loss of four out of five defensive linemen who played some pretty significant snaps uh that raises some pretty major questions about their ability to stop the run and really just get home to the quarterback right so now I I expect them to be able to get home to the quarterback uh you know I I like the new coach but it is what it is uh tough ACC schedule right you got a strong start or a potentially strong start because you got some easy easy games there early but then on the back half you get that buy on October 12th and then you got Florida State SMU Miami NC State and then uh you play Virginia Tech like luckily you get Virginia Tech SMU in Florida State all at home but you're not going to be expected to win those right pretty brutal back half of the schedule just rough uh the rating I've got them number 51 in the country conference rating number nine I project them to have 6.12 wins uh which is over the uh the 5 and2 or I guess under the 6 and a/2 whatever it is um yeah like I've got six games as a projected favorite I got seven tossup games this is going to be an interesting year for Duke I uh I like Malik Murphy I want to see what he's going to look like in this uh in this offense the Florida State simol playing Florida State a game this weekend actually against Georgia Tech so current win total is N9 and a half that number has not moved from the opener odds of plus 104 to go over that is a probability of 49.0 2% andus 128 to go under 56.14100 he should be able to throw the Deep ball in Mike norville's offense uh they got fast dudes all over the place they got an incredible offensive line we'll see I mean Malik Benson coming in was huge they got a really versatile backfield roell Williams Etc like this is very talented team uh they've got an Elite pass rush you got Patrick pton you got Marvin Jones Jr on the defensive line uh Pete thill came out and said that this is the best defensive line in the country or the best defensive front in the country period we we shall see we shall see so they could absolutely uh pressure some opposing quarterbacks they could get after him and if they're able to do that you know regularly defense could dominate they they might be able to handle all these games even with an offense that may not be quite as explosive as they were last year uh but who knows then of course continuity and uh they've got depth on the offensive line right you got three returning starters on the offensive line you got key transfers coming in Terence Ferguson um Florida State's offensive line should be awesome for dju that's going to be huge um they the SS are going to have a balanced attack and the ability to control the pace of games now as far as whether they might go under the 9 and a half they do have some inexperience at key positions right you get significant turnover at wide receiver and in the secondary they might struggle to find some consistency early in the season particularly if the younger players don't quickly adapt to some of these new roles you do have quarterback questions DJ U angele has yet yet to prove that he can Elevate an offense to an elite level consistently at least and if he's not able to do that there's yeah they've got another guy back there but they could struggle certainly and if they don't have the Firepower uh then they might struggle to keep up in some of these games you know at SMU you got Clemson that next week you're playing at Miami uh at Notre Dame I mean it's you know it it's tough uh trap games and of course a tough schedule right stuff that I was just reading off there's plenty of pitfalls here you got that tricky match up against SMU before the Clemson game you got uh you got North Carolina the week after Miami like and of course you got North Carolina right before noted aame North Carolina has Got Talent like there's potential landmines here so if you have any unexpected losses that's that's an issue so I've got them rated number nine in the country I've got him conference rated number one I've got him 9.06 projected wins which is under the 9 and a half uh but I've got 11 games where they're projected to be a favorite and four toss-up games this is going to be an interesting year because they do have a lot of new faces but this Mike Norville has said multiple times this is the most talented team this is the fastest and the strongest team that he's had there I'm excited to see what he can do with it the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets the weak zero opponent in Ireland for the Georgia Tech Florida State simol uh the yellow jackets their current win total is 4 and A2 that's down from the 5 and 1/2 opener odds ofus 142 to go over so 58.6% probability that's the favorite here plus 116 to go under 46.3% uh conference odds are 101 that's an implied implied probability of just under 1% so 0.99% now for white Georgia Tech might go over their one total explosive offense right Haynes King dual threat uh he's you know combine him with a returning core that includes guys like a thousand yard rusher Jamal Haynes a rising star receiver and Eric Singleton Jr that's going to give the Y jackets the Firepower to really be able to compete in just about any game uh especially with four returning starters on the offensive line number two you got coaching impact right Brent key his first full year saw immediate offensive Improvement and of course you get the addition of the defensive coordinator Tyler s excuse me Tyler santui coming over from Georgia Tech not Georgia Tech that's what I'm talking about Tyler sanui is coming over from duke he was one of Mike oo's disciples there uh there is potential for the defense to take a step forward right so we'll see I mean the defense was bad last year but who knows and then of course there's upset potential right several key games at home uh you got Kings knack for big plays right Georgia Tech we'll see if they can pull off some some upsets because they're going to have to do it against some higher ranked opponents uh you got games against Florida State early you got Louisville coming in no you're going to Louisville excuse me NC State uh Notre Dame at Virginia Tech like there's there's spots and then of course Georgia at the end of the year that's going to be a problem but you're going to have to pull off some upsets Georgia Tech has proven that they can pull off those upsets now as far as why they might go under the win total schedule is brutal right you got two top 10 ranked non-conference opponents in Notre D Man Georgia you got a grueling ACC slate you start off in week zero with Florida State in Ireland and then you don't have a bye until you get to week five so you got to come back home play Georgia State you got to travel all the way up to Syracuse New York in week two uh VMI at home the next week then you travel to Louisville before you ever get a byee international travel and then games on top of games that's that's tough so and on top of that the ACC schedule that they got is difficult I mean having to go to Virginia Tech then you get a buy then you get Miami not a not ideal certainly not ideal uh defensive struggles right despite the new defensive coordinator the defense still could be a problem it could take him a while to really you know get his system I guess you could say uh they were among the worst in the country last year there's no real difference makers on this team at least not proven ones so if they got to get in more shootouts it we'll see what happens uh and of course if they get more shootouts this is another one inconsistent play right hes King has shown flashes but I mean he's streaky he turns the ball over too much you're giving the ball to the other team that's certainly going to hinder the offensive uh Effectiveness right so and you got a lot of top tier defenses on here so that's going to be rough I've got him rated number 56 I've got him number 11 in the conference uh projected wins I've got him at 4.73 so slightly over I got him three games as a favorite and six tossup games um I I like Brent key I like what he's doing there this schedule is I mean this thing would be tough for Notre Dame Florida State any of them like this is a brutal schedule so we'll see what happens uh I like Georgia Tech I don't have a lot of faith in them being able to get to uh this this five number here but we'll see next on the board the Louisville Louisville Cardinals current win total 8 and a half that is the same as opener odds of plus 132 to go over that's 43.1% implied probability and the favorite here is the under at minus 162 that probability is 61.83 per. conference odds they're plus 850 to win the conference that is a 10.53% probability on that as for why they might go over Jeff Braum is an offensive genius right Tyler shuck is coming in at quarterback you got a slew of talented transfers here uh Bron's high-powered offense I mean he did it last year it's got the potential to hit a stride pretty quickly um they're explosive right and and he showed that at Purdue and Western Kentucky and at times last season he was able to do that as well there's depth here there's Talent here right their aggressive approach in the in the portal the roster has got experienced players on both sides of the ball you got key additions you got wide receiver jakori Brooks coming in from Alabama defensive back Quincy Riley they got Dept to navigate a pretty tough schedule here and and the defense like could there be defensive Improvement they're bolstered by a pretty strong secondary you got the addition of impact transfers like Thor Griffith on the line they got the potential to be one of the acc's best again providing that balance that they need to win some close games along with that offense now as far as why Louisville might not go over why they might go under here you do have some quarterback uncertainty right Tyler shook we've seen him be really really good but man is he got an injury history uh and if he goes down I mean they got they got problems uh because they I don't know that they've got guys there that are really going to be able to step in and play right away uh there is a lack of or a potential lack of cohesion here right you got so many new faces in really key positions it might take time to gel right and if you're trying to gel early in the season okay against Austin P probably not that big of a deal against Jackson or Jacksonville State probably not that big of a deal but it could be costly uh against a pretty tough schedule you got Notre Dame you got Clemson and you got Miami on this thing I mean that's that's pretty rough you do have to deal with SMU as well you got Kentucky at the end of the year they've not been able to beat Kentucky really at all um and that's what I'm it's a tougher schedule right that's what I've got for my my next note here uh it's a significantly more challenging slate right Road games at Notre Dame uh at Clemson like then you got to go to Boston College you got to play at Kentucky this year you got to travel all the way across the country to play Stanford then come back and play pit the next week and then go up just the street to Kentucky or whatever but it you look at after that week three byy you got Georgia Tech at home Notre Dame SMU at home at Virginia Miami at home at Boston College at I mean that's it's rough it's very rough uh I've got him rated number 23 which I had I mean that surprised me so much uh I've got him rated number four in the conf uh in the excuse me in the confence it's a lot of teams we talking about today uh projected wins I've got him at 8.10 so I've got them slightly under I've got him a favorite in nine games and you know I got five toss-up games here so there's a lot of green on here I was a little shocked that they were more than a touchdown favorite um I think that Miami game is wrong I think I've only got him a favorite in nine game yeah I need to fix that I'm just now noticing that oh I had the numbers wrong that's funny that's funny okay so let's uh now the 8.10 this is that's from a different spread sheet this is this completely different so that 8.10 I will ride on that uh I think they're only favorites in eight games so bear with me bear bear with me you guys all right next up the Miami Miami Hurricanes everybody's favorite Buzz team right now current win total is nine and a half uh that number has not moved this summer you got odds of plus 138 to go over that's only 42.0203980 to win the ACC with an implied probability of 18.52% now for why Miami might go over this roster is fraking loaded you got cam Ward at quarterback you got Damen Martinez from Oregon State coming in at running back the offense is primed to be one of the most dangerous in the ACC you got a strong experienced offensive line which is certainly what Mario chrisal does best and you got versal Playmakers like Xavier rreo you got dudes everywhere should be no excuses on defense you got improved depth this year they have aggressively bolstered that defense you got key transfers like Tyler Baron coming in and yeah he was a bit of a a locker room problem at Louisville um it is what it is right so he went from Tennessee to ol Miss to Louisville now he's at Miami he's still a stud you got Simeon Barrow Jr coming in uh that adds to an already pretty strong front seven should help him control the line of scrimmage big Advantage there and then of course a scheduling Advantage Miami schedule is one of the most manageable in the ACC you got games like Florida State at home you you got uh I mean is there I see some some potential trip up spots you know that first week against Florida you could lose that and still win every single game left on the schedule but your road games at South Florida that one might get tricky might maybe but you still got way more Talent than they do uh but yeah your away games are South Florida CAL Louisville and Georgia Tech now as for why they might not go over the win total why they might go under quarterback consistency cam ward has certainly Got imense Talent but he has been incredibly inconsistent in the latter half of well really the latter half of last season but both of his years at Washington State it was kind of up and down up and down right so there are concerns about whether or not he can uh sustain that high level performance across the full schedule so we'll see what ends up happening with him Chris Ball's game management is certainly a concern uh he's incredibly conservative I like what he's doing with the offensive coordinator uh Shannon Dawson came in and they got a little more aggressive last year now back half of the season they started losing quarterbacks and whatnot and that that became a problem but the signs were there that he was going to let the OC call the offense and I think that's good so uh but you know you get in a tight game we'll see what he does in that situation and then of course there are secondary concerns right uh the defensive backfield struggle during spring practices it could be a potential weak spot right uh there are some high-powered offenses on this schedule right if you if you lose to South Florida like you lose that week one game to Florida and that's going to be a problem I've got them rated number 19 I've got their conference rating number three projected wins I have them at 8.31 which is under the win total uh but I've got nine games as a favorite I've got six toss-up games the only games where I have him an underdog I've got him a slight dog at Florida in week one I've got him a slight dog at Louisville and I've got him a slight dog at home against Florida State uh but truth be told they're more talented than Louisville they're more talented than I think they're more talented than Florida uh they're more talented than everybody else so I I got high hopes here for Miami let's keep it moving keep it moving we'll get this thing done in one take here the NC State wolf pack oh yes NC State oh yes current win total eight and a half for NC State uh look odds ofus 1340 go over that's 57.2 6% implied probability and plus 110 to go under that is 47.62% so I it sounds sounds like oddsmakers are expecting NC State to get back to nine wins which is interesting because NC state has never hit 10 wins under Dave Doran so conference odds plus 600 to win the ACC that's an implied probability of 14.29% now for why they might go over we'll start off with Grayson McCall right they bring him in from Coastal Carolina he is one of the most efficient quarterbacks in recent college football history NC State's offense certainly has the potential uh to take a a pretty big Leap Forward right if he can return pre-injury form and you know utilize his dual direct capabilities which should fit perfectly into Robert and I's system there you got an experienced offensive line you got four starters back uh for the wolf pack here a lot of stability there should provide the protection that Mcall needs uh and it should open up some running lanes for Jordan Waters who's the uh the Duke transfer that came in I mean he is fantastic so you got a lot of Versatility in that back field and of course for some of these act team or ACC teams it's favorable schedule they avoid the heavyweights right you you don't get Florida State you don't get Miami here you do have to play uh Clemson on the road but that's kind of early aside from that once you get Clemson out of the way and you get Tennessee done in the non-conference by the time week four is done you're kind of smooth sailing at that point so you've got a pretty good path uh to get over this win total if you can if you especially if you beat Clemson or Tennessee right now as far as why they might go under you do have injury concerns from Mall right he he's got a history of that if he struggles to stay healthy that could be a difficult situation right there's a a lack of any kind of proven depth at quarterback so that could be a problem but they were able to win games last year uh with some some very inexperienced guys at quarterback so they got defensive turnover you got the loss of key defensive players uh pton Wilson shaheim battle like there's it leaves questions about whether or not the defense can maintain its top 20 performance especially with new faces needing to step up in pretty uh critical roles here you got unproven skill positions uh outside of Kevin concepion I hope I said that right I hope it's not just like Kevin conception Kevin I think it's Kevin concepion anyway the wolf packs receiving cord is for the most part unproven you got new additions coming in you got Noah Rogers uh you got Justin Jolly uh if they don't quickly adapt this offense might have problems moving the ball against some of these tougher teams on the schedule I've got him rated number 3 to conference rating uh I've got him number six in the conference projected wins I've got him at 8.31 so slightly under nine games as a favorite or as a projected favorite and then I've got him in five at toss-up games so five games that are expected to be within one possession uh I I like NC State I trust Gibson the the defensive coordinator Robert and I have always trusted I say always for the past like four years I've trusted him wasn't great last year um but but I got a lot of faith in him to be able to scheme up something pretty good tickets to everything are expensive these days and I know you're like me you want to catch a big game or a concert maybe even tickets to a show why not save some money every time you buy tickets visit ticketsmarter.com or use the ticketsmarter mobile app and use the promo code wc10 that's wc10 to save $10 on any order of $100 or more or use wc20 that's wc20 to save $20 on an order of $300 or more it's not a one-time sign up bonus or anything seriously every time you buy tickets you can save money on already great deals so do yourself a favor think Smarter with ticket North Carolina smarter next on the board the North Carolina Tar hules their current win total is 7 and A2 uh odds of- 115 to go over that's 53.4 n% probability and - 105 to go under 51.2 two% probability conference odds are plus 3600 you got an implied probability of 2.7% for them to win the ACC now for why they might go over m brown right like M Brown's super experienced he's got a wealth of coaching under his belt and he's proven that he can develop Talent right they're pretty well positioned to navigate the challenges of having a new quarterback and a new offensive line you know maximizing the potential of of the star running back Omari and Hampton like they they got guys to lean on and M Brown knows what to do in those situations you got defensive Improvement potentially right you bring in Jeff Collins as the defensive coordinator uh should bring in a a fresh energy that you didn't have with Jee chisik and you know Collins kind of known for being aggressive on defense uh and you got several key players that returning right you got uh let's say Rucker you got huzzy uh you got you got d D back there you got a real shot at getting better on defense and then you've got a manageable schedule like North Carolina schedule is I mean they avoid Clemson and Miami and you got a mix of winnable games that could easily push them over that seven and a half mark uh if you can capitalize on matchups against teams like you know Virginia Tech uh or sorry Virginia I mean they didn't win that last or yeah they've had some pretty rough matchups here Georgia Tech they got beat Etc if you can beat NC State at the end of the year you can handle some of these Road games at Florida State at Virginia at Duke at Minnesota to start off the year that North Carolina Minnesota game means so much in week one like so much for win totals uh as for why they might not go over why they why they might go under the win total you do have quarterback uncertainty here you brought in some guys uh Drake May's gone but you got an ongoing quarterback battle with Max Johnson and Conor Harold uh and then you got jacobe Criswell that's back there as well like but there's still uncertainty you got dudes but there's uncertainty at the most important position and you're going to want somebody to grab that thing by the horns offensive line turnover is a problem as well uh it's almost a complete overhaul of the offensive line five of last year's top six guys are gone raises concerns about you know run blocking you know protection for the quarterback whoever that might be and we'll see like Omari and Hampton was awesome last year but what's he going to look like Behind These Guys and then of course defensive struggles right I brought up that the defense could improve well I mean yeah you brought in Jeff Collins but they were number 78 uh in Sp plus last year any continuation of those struggles I mean this offense that's in transition could certainly be in a tough spot so you need the defense to kind of help the out the offense especially early so we'll see I've got him rated number 40 in the country conf trting I've got him number seven uh projected wins are 7.77 so slightly over the 7 and A2 I got him favored in 10 games I mean that is wild then but I got eight toss-ups so what are you going to do what are you going to do all right we continue with the pit Panthers current Pitt win total for pit five and a half good old patard doozy uh odds of plus 116 to go over the 46.3 0% andus 142 to go under so the under certainly the favorite at 58.6 8% probability on that uh yeah 5 and a half for a win total for pit they I don't think they've seen that in quite a while they are 120 to1 to win the conference to win the ACC that is 83% this is a team that just won this league not that long ago I think it was 2021 right uh for wi pip might go over their win total you got a lot of veterans right well veteran support anyway you got a Young quarterback like Nate Yarnell that's coming into a full-time starting role but you got some experienced players around him right Rodney hymon Jr Gavin Bartholomew that's pretty strong foundation for him to lean on maybe Pit's offense is going to have some stability potentially uh you're going to have to rebuild the defense despite the losses on defense you know Pat ardui does have a really good track record of building tough defenses you couple that along with some key transfer additions like uh well it's some how about this some returning players Jimmy Scott I know I put him down that suggests you know pit can can maybe rebound and and regain his defensive identity after last season and you got a favorable early schedule right the early schedule you got favorable non or non-conference games against teams like you know Kent State uh Youngtown State you got a chance to build some momentum before you head into the ACC uh even the win or the game at Cincinnati is winnable you got West Virginia at home I think that's probably winnable as well like it it it should be a spot where you can get some wins but who knows as for why they might go under you got quarterback uncertainty Nate Yarnell I mean he did show promise in limited action um his he's inexperienced that could lead to some inconsistency right especially as he adjusts because they got a new offensive coordinator in uh that's going to go up Tempo and um and he's a firsttime power four coordinator right so that could be a problem you got defensive inexperience here only five of the top 15 Defenders returned from last year now you got you got key players like Nate Temple right that are gone like it might take time for bit's defense to gel a little bit but it's not like they were great last year so you brought in some new guys throw it against the wall let's see what sticks and then you got a daunting backend schedule I mean it is it's pretty rough uh you get into November you got at SMU you get Virginia at home but then you got Clemson at home and you play at Louisville before going to Boston College to close things out I mean that's that's pretty rough that is pretty rough so the beginning of the schedule is not terrible uh so you need to secure some wins early uh if you want to get get over this 5 and a half here I've got him rated number 67 conference rating I got him way down there number 14 uh but their projected wins I got them at 5.75 because the the schedule's favorable so they're slightly over I got them projected as a favorite in four games and I've got seven tossup games so toss-ups any games that projected to be within one score yeah I uh I get it I get it I like Pat ardui he's uh he's fun to me I know he's not for everybody but I I enjoy I I hope that they do well this year I hope he can rebuild that defense the SMU Mustangs first SMU year I was going to say transfer I guess that's technically what they are they come in from the AAC they are now in A4 League it's been a long time since they've been in a power conference their current win total is 8 and a half that is up from the seven and a half opener odds of plus 104 to go over 49.0 2% probability and minus 128 the favorite to go under 5614 per probability to win the conference 10 to1 that's implied probability of 9.09% on that now for why SMU might go over you know Rett Lashley they got an explosive offense you got Preston Stone back a quarterback you got deep skill cores uh cores what am I talking about still you got a deep bunch of skill players how's that it's a deep bench you got returning backs Kamar weaton out for the year but jayen KN was going to be the starter there anyway you got really receivers here this offense is going to light up the scoreboard right especially in the ACC where you're going to face uh several defenses that um that might struggle to keep up here uh you got defensive upgrades here the Mustangs address their biggest concerns uh by adding you know size and Talent on the defensive line through the portal which should bolster their already improving defense and and help them hold up against some tougher ACC competition and then you got a favorable ACC schedule right you avoid Clemson you avoid Miami you get Florida State at home early uh and it's the week before Florida state has to play Clemson I mean this is a potentially smooth transition to the new conference right you got a real shot at Double Digit wins now as far as why they might go under you got offensive line questions right you lost three starters off last year's line relying on transfers to uh to fill the gaps could potentially be an issue for stone uh and stone of course went out injured towards the end of last season if you can't keep him upright curious to see what Kevin Jennings can do we're going to see him against Nevada this weekend uh the transition to a tougher schedule right like it while the schedule is favorable for an ACC team you're jumping up in competition from the AAC to the ACC and that's a a big deal like SMU could certainly face a Lear a learning curve right so I mean you see what they did last year they played three power Conference teams Oklahoma TCU and then Boston College in the bowl game lost all three of those it's the only three games they lost all year but we'll see we'll see I I think this roster is built to be able to compete in the ACC we'll just we'll see uh and they got defensive depth concerns right despite some of the upgrades uh the depth especially in the secondary that's a bit of a concern if injuries hit uh if starters you know struggle to adapt smu's defense could absolutely get exposed against some of these big- time offenses Louisville could certainly do some damage to them um pit I know like we don't expect much out of bit you look at the back half of the schedule Duke pit Boston College Virginia Cal and at Stanford right before Duke like this this easy schedule like it's ridiculous I've got them rated number 24 their conference rating is number five uh the projected wins 8.78 so I got them slightly over and then I got nine games as projected favorites here and five toss-up games I don't know if I would bet them to win the conference yet but this team should impress this year I would certainly think the Stanford Cardinal current win total Stanford three and a half that is the same as the opener it hadn't moved yet but uh there's been some money coming in on the over because it is now minus 170 to go over that's probability of 62.9 6% and of course plus 138 to go under that's 42.0203980 you got returning experience like Stanford has the second most returning production in the country at least according to Bill connley from what I understand and uh he provides a pretty well that provides a pretty solid foundation for improvement under Troy Taylor uh especially with some of these key offens pieces right the the quarterback Ashton Daniels is back you got the star wide receiver uh ellic iom Manar I I've been talking too much today I'm not going to try and do that again uh I'm C certain that by the end of this year I will know how to say his name I will certainly know how to say his name all right we're expecting some offensive growth I feel like I got to sneeze this is terrible great radio great podcasting uh look you got a year of Taylor system under their belts the offense is certainly going to be more poised more consistent at least we would assume it would be uh especially if Daniels can keep building last year he showed some flashes man and they they were they were awesome so they got a a pretty good quarterback receiver Duo maybe one of the top in the ACC we'll see how far that can get them they do have some winnable games right despite the challenges of being in the ACC along with the travel and whatnot you got winnable matchups right you got Cal py early uh that TCU game is at home like in TCU is not World beaters yeah you got to go to Syracuse but it's not like you couldn't catch them uh San Jose State at the end of the year you got Cal in there like there's there's certainly games that you could win you got Wake Forest coming in at home like that these are not expected wins but wins that you could absolutely get now for why they might go under you still got some depth concerns right you return a lot of experience but the overall roster strength is still bottom half right like we we'll say that bottom half in in the 134 and FBS you know the lack of depth on especially on defense uh could certainly get exposed in ACC play uh as far as the adjustment to the ACC like the pack 12 I think was a stronger conference last year um but moving to the ACC where you got unfamiliar opponents you got a lot of travel it could lead to some inconsistency uh especially against teams that are a little more established in the ACC and then of course defensive struggles I mean their defense allowed 40 or more points in six of their last eight games uh in 2023 and and that you know despite returning many players the lack of impactful additions and uh an overall talent I mean there's certainly concerns about their ability to stop some of these ACC offenses I've got him rated number 69 uh conference rating I've got him at number 15 and projected wins I've actually got him going over a little bit uh which is interesting like a little bit interesting I've got him going over 4.40 wins on that uh I've got three games as a projected favored I got eight toss-up games so coin flip I uh I'm curious I like tro Taylor I like what he's doing there Stanford's always going to be at a little bit of a disadvantage and especially more of a disadvantage now with having to travel as much as they are but we'll see what happens we will see what happens next on the board most certainly the Syracuse Orange Syracuse current win total seven and a half who would have thought with a firsttime head coach in the ACC that a team like this who just fired their coach would have a 7 and A2 win total now that's up from the 6 and a half opener there was a lot of people buying in on Syracuse especially early in the year uh Fran Brown comes in but they are plus 116 to go over that's only 46.3% probability and then the favorite here isus 142 to go under that is 58.6 eight% probability conference odds they're 60 to1 so probably not going to win the ACC uh it's 1.64% probability to win the league now for why Syracuse might go over you got a quarterback upgrade Kyle McCord from Ohio State comes in under Center uh he's a pretty seasoned quarterback a lot of experience proven production right should help Elevate an offense that already has some some pretty big Playmakers right you got gadon and Allen uh you got dudes there that I mean it's orange are a tough out for some of these ACC defenses you got a favorable schedule I think that's the biggest thing that people love about this you don't play Clemson you don't play Florida State the non-conference late is pretty manageable right you look at who they got here oh Oh Holy Cross UNLV Georgia Tech comes in Stanford comes in NC State you got to play on the road but you got Yukon coming in as well later in the year uh you got Miami at home you know you got Virginia Tech at home you got to go to pit but they weren't anything to write home about last year you got to go to Boston College two Cal like these are all winnable games so they might could get to eight or nine wins uh the defensive additions that's another one uh you got key defensive transfers that are coming in Diggs Chestnut Etc uh joining a unit that's led by Marlo wax this orange defense could be pretty good maybe maybe so if you got a good defense you got a pretty strong Foundation to be able to uh to get a lot of wins here now as far as why they might go under you do have a first year head coach right Fran Brown not just his first year here he is a first year head coach he's never been a head coach so there is a challenge there of implementing what he wants done while also adjusting to ACC competition and you you got two new teams on the schedule right Stanford and Cal I mean that's that's tough there could be some Growing Pains there uh offensive line is a bit of a concern they were number 116 in performance last season that's still a question mark you got you returned some starters you brought in some you know transfers that we think could upgrade if the offensive line doesn't yel what is McCord going to be like uh at quarterback and then you got depth thiss right the starting lineup looks pretty strong but you know there's a lack of depth at some pretty key positions especially defensive line cornerback Etc that could be a huge problem as the season goes along um especially in a in a conference like the ACC right you get on the back half of that schedule and you start dealing with pit Virginia Tech uh the back you know yeah Miami at the end not expecting to beat Miami of course but like NC State pit Virginia Tech that stretch right there that could be rough that could be rough I've got them rated number 63 uh their conference rating is number 12 I've got them projected at 6.66 wins uh which is I mean almost a full game under uh but I do have some priors in here so you know six games as projected favorites and eight toss-up games this is going to be an interesting test case I want to see what happens with sir use I like what Fran Brown is doing but I'm not all the way sold on them getting to eight wins in this first year because I mean it's it's an easier schedule for the ACC but this this still kind of a difficult schedule for Syracuse right the Virgin what have I got here I clicked the wrong one let's move on the Virginia Virginia Cavaliers current win total is 4 and a half uh odds ofus 110 to go over that's 52.38% and minus 110 to go under so people are not totally certain about what to do with this team conference odds are 170 to1 that's a probability of 58% now for w Virginia might go over their win total you got some returning experience right you got a team that features a lot of uh guys back that includes both quarterbacks you got young players who gained some pretty valuable reps last year I mean Virginia could take a step forward uh as these players mature and learn from last year's challenges you got offensive potential you know if the true freshman quarterback Anthony kandria um or he was a true freshman last year but he showed he showed Flash last year I mean he was he was Chunk in that thing right if he continues to develop and you got some new offensive weapons like Chris Tyree uh you you got dudes here that can make that passing game a legitimate threat and if they're able to do that you can win some of these closer games on the schedule uh you got improved defensive depth right you got key Defenders back like cam Butler if they can develop some of these young players that were thrust into action last year I mean they could they could get a bit stronger on that side of the ball but especially in the Run defense right uh need some help there so we you would need you need some help on defense as for why Virginia might not go over their win total the quarterback uncertainty there there's a battle between kandria and musket you got kandri is inconsistency right with muskets a little more conservative play what do you want to be who you going to get the most reliable play from uh that's going to be a question for sure you've got offensive line issues uh despite some returning starters Virginia's offensive line is is still a concern right you got depth issues that could limit the effectiveness of both the running back and uh well the running game and the passing game it's going to put added pressure on these young quarterbacks too and of course it's a that's a tough schedule right like there's you got tough non-con games you know against Maryland uh not today Coastal Carolina is not a gimme by any stretch of the imagination and it's on the road why these ACC teams schedule Road games Aton but I mean it's like I enjoy seeing it but it's not the smartest here um but then you got a difficult ACC stretch right like it's it's hard to see where they're going to get the wins to go over this win total uh that I mean that you look at that schedule early on okay like you might could beat Maryland at home you should probably beat Coastal Carolina should probably be Boston College at home Louisville at home that's different at Clemson home against North Carolina at pit that could be interesting but it is off of buy Notre Dame SMU Virginia Tech to close the year I did it's rough it's rough I've got them rated number 75 their conference rating I've got number 17 um projected wins are 4.28 here so slightly under and I've got two games where they are the projected favorites along with six toss-up games so not ideal certainly all right let's let's go back to where we were the Virginia Tech Hokies win total is 8 and A2 it opened at 7 and A2 so a lot of Virginia Tech people have been on the hes this off season odds of plus 124 to go over that's only 44.6 4% probability and minus 152 to go under that's 6.32% so people expect H about eight wins conference odds are plus a th000 that's 10 to one that's implied probability of 99.09% they were they were like plus 1,600 when when these things opened up it's down to like plus a thousand there's people that that really like Virginia Tech here now for why they might go over their win total returning production they got one of the highest returning production rates in the entire country you got the quarterback back Kiron drones you got standout running back uh toon in uh the hokeys are pois to build on last year's late season momentum we'll see they got offensive Firepower right uh that offense averaged nearly 35 points per game over the final seven games last year um it returns all their key Playmakers right you got the wide receiver allly Jennings who was a stud at Old Dominion didn't get to play much last year Jaylen Jane is there I mean you you got a potentially Dynamic high-scoring attack on offense this year and then of course on the other side of the ball pass defense has been a strength that's a that's a huge thing there all right so yeah their pass defense uh bolstered by you know some big time Corners you got the return of the SAR pass rusher Antoine pwell Ryland that remains one of the best in the conference and gives them a solid foundation to win some pretty tight games against tough ACC opponents as for why Virginia Tech might not go over their win total there's offensive line concerns right despite returning all five starters the offensive line was pretty inconsistent last year and if they don't improve that could limit what drones and the skill players are able to do right especially against some of these stronger defensive fronts you got rugers coming in you're favored there but rugers might have a pretty good defensive line Marshall in week two might have a pretty decent defensive line you got Miami coming in I mean you're going to have to deal with Clemson later on it's going to be rough run defense issues right the hokes uh struggled against the run last season and you know there's some pretty key losses in that front seven there's no guarantee that the new additions are going to shore up that weakness it could potentially lead to some some issues in some of these bigger games and then finally they got to learn how to win right like the hookes showed some promise last year but they were pretty inconsistent especially in games against some stronger opponents now they don't have a ton of those on the schedule this year but when they go up against better teams it it doesn't it doesn't farewell I will say that so there's there's questions about whether or not they can close out some of these games whether or not they can avoid slipping up in some of these winnable situations especially in close games right so I'm I'm curious I like Virginia Tech I want to see what they're going to what they're going to be like this year I've got them rated number 40 1 conference trading at number eight projected wins I've got at 7.41 so I've got them going under um but I still like this team I like that schedule like I think I think they have a good shot at doing some pretty big things uh this year so nine games as a projected favorite nine toss-up games like almost every game on the schedule I've got as a toss-up they're favored by 14 against Vanderbilt I've got that line like closer to six pretty wild pretty wild all right we got one more team that we are going to hit on in the ACC the Wake Forest Demon Wake Forest Deacons current win total four and a half that's the same as the opener hadn't moved over at a good old FD odds Aus 152 to go over that's 6.32% probability and plus 124 to go under that is 44.6 4% probability conference odds are 320 to1 that is3 1% probability to win the ACC so Dave clawson's Bunch will not be winning the ACC this year if you could bet the no on that boy you'd have to bet probably a million to win 10 bucks I mean it's it's ridiculous as for why wake might uh might go over their win total uh you know Dave Clawson maybe you got an offensive rebound coming he's got a proven track record of being able to bounce back from rough seasons and their offense is poised for improvement you know especially you got Playmakers back like Donovan Green you got a healthier offensive line right we'll say that this is a reason why they could go over they they've got quarterback stability like whether it's Hank bachmeyer who transferred him from Louisiana Tech before he was at Boise State before that um he he brings experience he's got a proven arm and then of course you got a a proven true freshman uh uh Jeremy hlinsky I believe is the guy quarterback play could get better could improve improved from last year I mean they're going to need it to for sure and then uh another reason why they might go over you get defensive strength right you get you're anchored by a a senior Laden defensive line uh it's led by Jen Davis W Force defense should be able to stop the run pretty effectively they should be able to pressure the quarterbacks doing any of those things should help them stay competitive and some of these tougher matchups as for why they might go under their win total we'll start with quarterback again right quarterback neither bachmeier or hitch Linsky uh has proven themselves and they certainly haven't proven themselves really in the ACC so if you get inconsistent play at quarterback it's going to be rough for clawson's off the claw fence if you will uh for that mesh to be able to work you do have injury concerns right Donovan Green he's a whole history of injuries uh missed the entire 2023 season and so you got questions about whether or not they can generate big plays without him especially if he's not at 100% and you got a tough schedule I mean look at this thing you got non-conference games against old miss you got a brutal ACC slate you got Clemson and NC State yeah this is it's going to be tough for them to get the bowl eligibility uh and it right it might get tough for them to just get to five wins right there you know if they stumble in some of their winable games you got Virginia Tech at home in week two if you going get some ACC wins you better get that one uh cuz you're going on the road to Old Miss the next week you got Louisiana at home from the Sun Belt Louisiana could win that game you got to play at Yukon why why would you do that so I've got them rated number 71 they're conference rating at number 16 so not last uh but projected wins are 5.04 so I've got them going over because I believe in Dave Clawson I've got four games as projected favorites here and six toss-ups so toss UPS any game that is projected to be within one possession but man man oh man man I mean that's this going to be a rough year for Wick Forest I I'm afraid all right the conference title game I'm going well off the beaten path here uh it's going to be a wild year so why why not just go with two teams that seem to always fall just short I'm going to take Miami and I'm going to take NC State to meet in Charlotte in December because I really like their schedules right I I think Miami finally gets that first ACC title that roster is loaded I think now that they've got a quarterback that I think that they can rely on I think they're going to be able to get it done so the plus 440 there for me let's go and wrap this thing up like the video if you watch through this whole thing I appreciate you uh but like the video subscribe to the channel and the podcast and of course if you want to help the channel keep growing you can become a member at betting cfb.isd bless college football and we will see you on the next preview thanks for listening to winning cures everything make sure and follow me on Twitter @gary WCE if you want to toss in a question you can email me Gary winning cures everything.com make sure and hit that subscribe button and we'll see you next time [Music]