270: The Post-Biden World with David Ignatius | Politics War Room with James Carville & Al Hunt

hello and welcome to politics war room with James Carville and I'm Al hunt this week Our Guest is the author of phantom orbit a great new novel and Associate editor and columnist for the Washington Post David Ignatius no one covers foreign policy writes about it better than David remember we love taking your questions so write into politics warro gmail.com or send a tweet to politicon for next week's show now we're going to get to as many as we can but don't forget to tell us where you're from now before we get started we want to reiterate some exciting news that we have James and I are taking politics warro live to the 92nd Street Y in New York City on September 19th and the Variety Playhouse in Atlanta on October 12th you can get tickets at politicon dcom that's politicon domcom tour and we can't wait to see you there get text updates about what's next politicon and politics War Room by signing up at pon.com and tell your friends about us remind them to subscribe on Apple podcast Spotify or wherever you get your podcast and please check out the link to our sponsor Miracle made we thank you than you for supporting our sponsors it really helps make this podcast happen James we did I don't know maybe as many as eight fabulous podcasts at the Democratic Convention you can check them out we said in our substack site but this is our first regular program uh since Chicago uh that was my 24th convention and to my surprise one of the best Democrats achieved almost all the goals terrific speeches by the Obamas and the clintons they showcased their great farm club some emotional moments the fear of disruptive protest didn't happens that he did a good job and better than average acceptance speeches from the Vice Presidential nominee Tim Walls and I think camela Harris really Rose to the occasion you know I spent an hour or so on the convention floor over a couple nights and the delegates and the people I talk to the they were exuberant now I think what that reflected is a month ago just a month earlier they thought the National Ticket was dead Trump was going back to the White House and now they saw a real chance and talking the politicians and states the Biden team had basically written off Georgia Arizona they really were had optimism and uh North Carolina governor Roy Cooper told us out there that he thinks his state has a real chance to go Democratic in a presidential election for the first time since 2008 I think and I want you to really join this I think there was one missing element kamla Harris has yet to explain her 2019 campaign why she no longer believes some of those left-wing positions she took doing away with Private health insurance minimal uh border controls Banning fracking she made clear that she doesn't hold those views anymore uh she is uh she gave a she heartily embraced a bipartisan tough border Bill uh and uh she's for expanding the Affordable healthc Care Act rather than Medicare for all but she needs to explain these changes uh she was DP she learned a lot uh they're more realistic and she'll have that opportunity tonight with CNN's Dana Bash good reporter who asked tough questions of Harris and walls and then the September 10 debate with Trump but uh when you think about doing this show what five weeks six weeks ago James uh it looks a lot better today yeah Harris is GNA have to address 2019 the convention would have not been the right place to do that okay it just wouldn't that you're telling your story and you got attention and you should be saying all good stuff it's not a place to get an argument with yourself but I'm sure she's gonna get asked about it tonight I don't have any doubt about it she's going to have to answer it and I hope she has a encompassing answer that that takes every one of these things because it is Absol abolute truism of American politics that anybody that ever listens to a single thing that the identity left ever says is live to regret it it just is it's just a fact and she said some things that she's going to have to answer for I think she can I don't think it's fatal I think a bad answer would hurt a lot but I think she probably can have a good answer you know uh we'll go from there and then she's going to be on with Walt so she can give a good ason walon come back about all the hypocritical and crazy things Trump has said but she's got to answer it there's no doubt about that yeah that's her that's the big challenge I frankly think she's I I I would uh if I were a betting man James uh I I wouldn't have bet on the Washington Nationals last night but I would I would that that hurts I know that's so short had Jared Co minus 240 and Patrick Co I thought he was Walter Johnson man anyway if I were a betting man uh I I like her odds in that debate I I really think she'll do very well in the debate but you know she has to do well uh in that interview uh beforehand but you know turning to that other side uh the Trump side James I mean the political remember six weeks ago they were talking about winning Virginia Minnesota New Hampshire you don't hear any of that anymore they weren't the only people talking about it right the Democrats were talking about they were worried about it and I and I that's those are those are off the boards now and and Trump is still off balance as you've noted those crying for him the Lindsey Grahams or squiggly T biscuit whatever he's called say talk policy he didn't have any except to say how bad the other guys were or drill baby drill he can get those Arizona temperatures up to 150 and let me just take one and then you can you know join the whole conversation uh abortion he had more positions than a Rubik Cube he was he's he bragged two years ago I was the one that ended roie Wade now he's saying that no that women will do women's you know reproductive freedoms will be great under me I'm a champion of that he'll s and do anything and he's angry uh and I think he's he he's gonna have a big test on September 10th too James well he does have policies it's a big policy and that's what we talked about this and you brought it up the extending the tax cuts of people making over $400,000 a year it if you're in the top one10 of 1% that amounts around $750,000 in tax cut at a year does any does anyone really believe that's what we need in this country right go after him his tar stuff there was some excellent economic studies on just what that would do to Consumer prices in the United States so I I wouldn't say that he has no policies I would say that he has just got awful policies and as you also point out the extension of the subsidies for health insurance Obamacare are coming up and while we're talking about the referendum in Florida on abortion referendum Peter Warner I hope I'm pronouncing Peter way way Peter way pointed out something that is demonstratively true the prolife movement in the United States is totally full of [ __ ] total that forever and ever and ever they've been talking about whe the that abortion is is in any sense of form is murder and you just got to understand that was a claim that deeply hell of you I I I can't say that bad people would hold that point of view other people like myself said it's more more complicated human problem that all now they they don't even say that anymore and Trump is talking about he he may vote against he's going to say he's vote against the FL the six or whatever the vote the six month ban and they're fine with that and now they saying well we're going to leave it to the states well if you think it's murder if that was what you told people for 50 years then stand up and do it and they just they they're just showed to be nothing but a pack of frauds and they're going to let him get away with it I I assure you uh James that there will be meetings of some of the those Evangelical and some of those anti-abortion activists and Trump will send people there privately they hope and say hey don't worry about it we we'll take care of it you know January February next year you know we got the comto act in our back pocket we can have the FDA uh ban medication uh pills uh you know we're going to cut back a lot just just just don't give us a hard time between now and now and the election don't tell right and then they're not not they're not they've lost all there's nothing they'll never get it back they've lost any perceived moral High Ground that they ever had and I know plenty of people out of pro-life and they they've always convinced me that they genuinely believe that and I'm okay you can con not not the leadership of a pro life movement you're you're just a bunch of greedy power hungry people that are willing to do anything so you can hang out on an expense account in Washington they're all emulating Ralph Reed who really cares about humping for money as he want put it uh that's what it's all that's what it's all about and access and and uh influence but uh no I think you're absolutely right and and just to pick up on two points you raised uh the Affordable healthc Care Act it you know those subsidies expire next year now when when uh Trump ran against it in 16 they weren't very popular now they are over overwhelmingly popular what's Trump going to do well I'll tell you what he says he says well yeah I do away with the Affordable Health Care Act as uh Barack Obama pointed he doesn't call Obamacare anymore because it's so popular but uh he won't tell us what he's going to do he had four years to do something two years of which he controlled all the Congress it's because he has no idea it's just to him a convenient political issue and same thing with those tax cuts people making over $400,000 you have a choice you're going to give them an extension of the tax cut as you say 750 grand for the richest 1/10th to 1% or you're going to take a chunk of that money and use it for child tax credit and reduce poverty a chunk of that money and use it for a couple other programs and a chunk of that money and use it for deficit reduction that's a good argument Donald Trump does want to have no he's not G have that argument and and I'm hopefully that they bring it up at the debate yeah you know everybody when's Harris going to sit down and do all she's doing it that whole thing is just annoying and now I say well she's having ws and maybe she should do this you're never going to satisfy so just just do what you want to do do the thing with Dan bear you want to do something else do something else but understand there's nothing you're going to do that's going to satisfy oh she needs to answer more she needs to do this she needs to do that and you know bring it up at the debate on on September 10th a lot L going to be brought up yeah no I uh listen uh I think overconfidence would be a huge mistake it's still likely to be a pretty close election uh but as of uh late August uh rather have her hand than his said the big question since Nate Sila how much I think wasman you said says you need to win a poy vote by two some people say that I didn't see it yet but somebody said that Nate Sila kind of downgraded a little bit because she's got a win by four I I don't know what to I'm just taking the consensus number is three yeah and you know we do know that Trump unpoled in 2020 in Pennsylvania Wisconsin and Michigan in particular I mean really underp so there's a lot to be nervous about don't get me wrong having said all of that he just looks stale I'm I'm sorry and and I you know maybe he can get it back but he's not very potent anymore I don't think I really don't that's Labor Day weekend coming up things he can do to regain his potency I'm be clear about that but right now I'm I'm unimpressed well I told you taking uh coming back from taking my uh kid home a couple weeks ago I drove through a rural section of Maryland which is you know mainly Trump country and I remember certainly eight years ago and and maybe four years ago but certainly eight there were Trump signs on about every third yard I I only saw one over about a mile and a half stretch uh now maybe that's not an indicator but say something is that in Shor County Virginia there was seven Trump signs between Highway 11 and my place it now there's none I've heard the same thing on Highway One in Louisiana B fush Used to Be 35 or 40 of them and now there's three yeah uh friend of mine uh who had family in Ohio went to see his I guess his wife's family and said that used to be flooded with Trump signs and I forgot the name of it red C I see all the any I don't know what it means but you got four different pieces of antidotal evidence it's got to mean something you know sure there should have me S dark count is going to be blue but yeah but if the enthusi if there is an enthusiasm Gap that now maybe slightly favors the Democrats uh that may be one of the reasons he overperformed and some of those States last time as you noted because his enthusiasm was much was was greater uh if that's changed uh he may be less likely to overperform but I'm I'm just what I'm doing is look I I'd rather be hurting him I'll be clear about that what I'm trying to do is just put objectively what people should be looking at right right and I I think he might have lost some Mojo here I hope he did we'll see okay uh we got a lot we got now till November 5 we're going to have so much to talk about so stay [Music] tuned peat to heat with Miracle M sheets you know it's really important and just given the what what's Happening Here the climate high it's getting you say hotter it becomes much more important and you don't need the room air condition at night to be near where it would be without there but they work they help and in going into the future they're gonna help even more because it's just going to get hotter it is going to get hotter and sleeping at the right temperature is a critical way to feel rest of the next day if you wake up too hot or too cold we highly recommend you check out Miracle Maids bed 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expertise on the Middle East is unsurpassed and I know you've written that neither Iran nor Israel want a major war uh and the Hezbollah retaliation uh was controlled yet it remains a Tinder Box with daily incidents what predictions are always hazardous in the Middle East but but how do you assess the odds today of first a Gaza truce deal and avoiding a major confrontation Al one of our Wall Street Journal colleagues told me years ago that when it comes to the Middle East pessimism pays right that's still true but having said that I think that um us mediators are very close finally to uh a Gaza truce and with that would come a deescalation uh certainly with Hezbollah there's a likelihood that there'd be finally some version of uh the UN agreement uh Security Council resolution passed years ago that would contain things the Border deescalation I think also with Iran the problem is that every time it's like Zeno's Paradox you go halfway toward the goal each time that you never get there and and as close as we as we are now um events like today's Israeli operations in the West Bank uh destabilize the situation make it hard uh for the Arab mediators and for Hamas to appear to be knuckling under depress there's always a question as to whether prime minister n nanahu really wants a ceasefire deal or just thinks it's in his political interest to keep this war going but in simple answer to your question is a deal is near they're down to bargaining small details the names of individual Palestinian prisoners who be released uh the the particular points at which Israeli troops uh might remain On the Border strip between Gaza and and Egypt um but it it's it's going to take uh a clear yes from Hamas a clear yes from Netanyahu and then the whole apparatus that's in place thanks to us mediation goes forward let me pick up on your observations about Netanyahu I I I I think it's his first priority is self-preservation he wants to stay in office and stay out of jail can he agree to a deal and still keep his right-wing Coalition together probably not I mean I think one uh assumption is that this deal would indeed Force Netanyahu to make a new Coalition uh many many months ago my late friend the wonderful Middle East analyst former American ambassador Martin indic said the goal of US policy was to make BB either choke on the frog or swallow the frog the frog meaning all the complicating aspects of this deal um clearly some some of nyah's right-wing Partners would not accept the the terms of what the US is proposed and the Coalition would fall it it's it's one part of the strategy is that the knesset is now on recess it won't be back until the end of September which means that there's a window of a month in which you can move forward have a month of of of truce perhaps acclimate Israel to a new reality uh humanitarian Aid Flows In it's just a different situation you moved off the A and I if Netanyahu takes it he would be assuming he could form a new Coalition in that period without the rightwing but there's no question that the rightwing would refuse to accept the terms that are now on offer David they are the most powerful military uh in the region they've been the Israelis but they can't fight Hamas the hoodis Hezbollah and possibly Iran without major American assistance so President Biden who hopes this could be his I guess final big achievement if there's success um is he able if it gets to the sticking point at the end can he apply pressure more leverage on BB uh that would uh make it very difficult for Netanyahu to refuse I've asked that question often and the answer I get from senior officials is even if we if we were prepared to try what would an effect be regime change uh in our Israeli Democratic Ally there's no evidence that we'd be very good at it israelies um are in disagreement about many aspects of policy nanyo has a lot of enemies but one thing Israelis agree on is they don't want the United States telling them what to do so I think there's every likelihood that would that would blow up when Biden's really modest step to limit the shipment of 2,000 P pound bombs to Israel was leaked in the Israeli press you know there was an explosion of Israeli anger and resentment so I think that's that's that's a a tricky one over the longer term uh Al and and James I think it's important for the United States to think about its relationship with Israel it's just it's not a tenable situation in which any uh Ally forces its senior partner into policy decision that that that may not be in the senior partner security interest so people need to look really carefully at that uh in in the after action reports there's going to be so many things that people look at about this war um some more serious obviously for for Israel but this is one that the US needs to think about let me ask you one final question before turning over to James and that's Iran um you you've written that they um they they do plan retaliatory actions of some sort against United States same time you hear reports that they even talk about rejoining the nuclear deal or at least discussions about that they have a new president has the situation changed in tyan at all well I think the fundamentals haven't we still have a a clerical regime um with the irgc as its sword and shield that that's as ruthless as ever but it's possible that Iran may be on a different tactical course Iran feels isolated Iran has responded to us messages and they've been they've been extensive people don't realize that over the last nine months or so there has been regular uh fairly deep backchannel diplomacy between the US and Iran sometimes in person to talk about red lines parameters for the conflict ways of preventing deescalation and generally it's been successful it's interesting I think us officials would say that that back channel is working I do think maybe this uh regime of the new president uh does want to go back into into nuclear negotiations um it's it's not to say that we're looking at R Iran where the fundamentals are different but the tactics may be different I've always thought it was a big mistake to get out of the nuclear deal if we can get back into a nuclear deal it caps caps them short of having a bomb good it's worth doing James so so David you said something I found interesting that the Israelis don't like to get advice from the United States okay since this Camp David how much assistance do you think the United States has provided the state of Israel uh I'm going to guess it's in the hundreds of billions of dollars I'm just guessing here but it's a whole lot right so so you want our money but you don't want iice which is a kind of unique position to be in uh so and you have a I think a well- earned reputation of being very knowledgeable and and kind of evenhanded in your analysis in the Middle East do you have do you know of or do you have any justification for these jackass settlements in the West Bank so I've thought and I've written for for decades now James that I think settlements are the obstacle to the kind of peace that will bring Israel greater security Prosperity I think settlements and the ever continuing expansion uh the the illegal Outpost that seed settlements the raids by settlers who come down from the hilltops and maraud in Palestinian Villages I traveled the West Bank in December and and did a lot of reporting on the ground about about this problem and if if we're ever going to talk seriously about a resolution of this problem with something like a Palestinian State uh you first there's not a lot of land left um it's so West Bank's really a map of Swiss cheese with so many holes in it because of of S but even so it could be done if the settlers could be kept in check and you know who is the the the most important um preventive uh force in keeping the settlers from from running wild it's the IDF it's the Israeli military the Israeli military in my experience many of their commanders hate the settlers they they find them a menace suppose your job was to keep the lid on in the West Bank and you had these people R coming down from the hilltops at night with masks on and just wrecking Havoc uh always threatening to torch the stable accommodation that you were trying to work out you'd be pretty angry at them so you know a final Point um you know there a lot of complicated things about our relationship with Israel but but I through this war I've had a chance to talk to a lot of senior IDF generals the leaders of their uh internal security service the shouldn't bet these are people the highest quality they're great allies for the United States they're responsible they're they're trying they would have brought this war to an end months ago if if they' been able to I think so I remember when I was in Israel a lot at the end of the last century it I talked to policy people defense people and stuff like that and everybody would say James you got to understand this is our equivalent of slavery that we don't know how to get rid of but we know it's it's not going to it's not going to end very well I'm notating to settle as anyway like slave owners but it was just that there was this intractable problem that in effect is going to bite us on the ass one day but we don't have the political will to deal with it right oh was kind of interesting and that was 25 years ago I mean people knew it so so I read chti on uh Congressman Mike Gall today and I known who he was I know he's in rine Corp he's a I've been with paler for over 10 years now I think he's very good hire for him is he gonna endorse in this race I don't think he's going to endorse uh I think that's the opposite of what he's trying to do now he's trying to get a little distance from politics and start a new career uh with you know with a First Rate tech company but you know as you know James um Mike Gallagher is an example of the kind of people we need in Congress and he's also an example of how difficult it is to be a responsible Republican in the house now I mean you know stuff he went through trying to do the people's business uh sensibly makes you sick so uh you know that's it's you know more about this than I do I know but there are people like Liz Cheney and Adam kin and Michael ludic there are people that say this is just too far I'm going to vote for haris okay yes and if if you believe is I I believe we to show this is an existential threat to the Constitution that these guys get in there and the idea that you have these principal people that say well I don't want to be part of this but I'm not gonna say anything uh I don't know I I'm not there I think I think somebody's got to say something here it's it's it's a fair point you know the real profile en courage is when you is when you step out and you you take risks to do the right thing you I'll give Gallagher credit he he refused under a lot of pressure to vote for the impeachment of alen me orcus which of all the farsal things that the right Republicans have done in the house that that's high high on the list and he you know he took a lot of heat for it uh but he he did did the right thing there other examples of that but I how's he going to vote in November I have no idea your question will he publicly endorse um uh uh Harris and I I would think the answer to that would be no he's just that's not where he is yeah I think I agree with you call but you know but in World War II we didn't say well Tojo came from more humble backgrounds than Rosel did did we we weren't trying me this is this is to me this is where we are you like this is the whole goddamn country's at risk and the point I made David and I would they just I would tell Gall the same thing if you want your party back if you believe in a Blow tax lighter regulatory touch more nationalistic uh stand straighter at the anthem or or whatever it is you're pulling for one thing this November a [ __ ] wipe out like a goat okay because what happened they got wiped out in 64 what did they do in 68 they won the Democrats got wiped out in 72 what did they do in 76 so I would say to Mike gallager if Harris gets 280 electoral votes you're not getting your party back it's not coming back the only way that it comes back is that you have to get annihilated in this election and then I tell i' say that to Bill Crystal Tim Miller or or or any of my other friends I said to my wife and her friends you you want to get wiped out if you if you really want your party back if you love that Republican party you ain't getting it back when haris getting 280 electoral folks I promise you put it just right um you know the this this um uh you know TR Trump cult needs to be burned out of the Republican party if you're going to have a Republican party again you know as you twoo are the experts and you know that there's an argument we're in the midst of a change in our party system like we've had in the past in our history where you know parties in in the end disappear the old Republican party may be disappearing become a populist party that's just very different has no place in the end for Mike Gallagher and that's decision he'd have to make and so many of these other Republicans but you're right if they if if we want to go back to a version of the party system we had before Trump has to lose catastrophically so badly that people say that's it it's over right and that may not even be possible but that's what do have it yeah I you know I I thought your Gallagher piece was fascinating we've had a u a number number of times on this program we've had Raja uh Krishna Mory who was the Democratic counterpart and they both had one was a progressive Democrat one was a Conservative Republican but they had a lot of mutual respect and work well together in that shining thing I the one thing I I disagree with his analysis is he really calls for a less powerful speaker and committees are I I don't think the house Works uh with uh 435 speakers but uh he's obviously a thoughtful man he belongs in Congress it's a shame he left and was a good peace day but let me ask you two quick questions about Ukraine uh their fora into Russia seems to have clearly rattled Putin although he responded with a massive attack on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure has is is zalinski achieving enough to at least start thinking about getting to a negotiating table with a better hand and uh on the other hand of the Russians still confident time is on their side especially uh if Trump were to win in November so I I think the Russians are still uh confident you know they're they're they're slow starters but but they do have staying power I think there's no chance that Putin thinking there's you know good possibility he'll be dealing with with Trump who would want a broker what would be essentially a concessionary peace agreement in favor of Russia wouldn't want to wait wait that out um so I think that's a problem zety was an increasing political difficulty in ke I've seen that in my last two visits this year and he needed to do something to get uh Ukrainian political support uh going again and you know this is a a dramatic um you know lifts the spirits a show of of Ukrainian determination uh he's got a lot of prisoners now that he could that he could trade the I think the Russians probably would want to trade for prisoners that would start a round of diplomacy that would make possible sometime next year maybe uh if Harris wins a diplomatic resolution of the war zinsky is talking in those terms um I think the the fundamental difficulty is that is that the neither side yet is really willing to give up on its basic goals I mean you don't have peace agreements until until the parties are exhausted until until the ground is drenched in blood it's awful way to put it but that's just the truth yeah and you know it's it's it's getting that way if if the Russians you know if the Russian forces in curs get cut off and those troops get annihilated that's going to cause problems for Putin there's a very interesting article in the in the paper yesterday saying that finally there's some measures that suggest that Putin's popularity in Russia is in Decline it's been up you know he's more popular now than he was before the war but that maybe maybe maybe that's beginning change and that would change the situation too yeah you know I kept thinking that uh that 4A into Russia that was his kind of do little raid uh I mean it was uh uh it was certainly a psychological boost but that has maybe a short it was it was the do little raid and you know another way to think about it it's like it's like uh General Lee's for into Pennsylvania um you know you wanted to do something that was tactically destabilizing disruptive to to the enemy problem is is you know Civil War history turns on on the results of that the Battle of Gettysburg was a significant defeat for the Confederacy and you could say it marked the beginning of the long uh end the union didn't didn't follow up quickly enough but I think that's the danger for for for what solinsky's done is is that it's a bold foray but it leaves him open to potential difficulty down the road yeah well um uh I mean I think that uh David what how many novels have you now written I've written 12 novels uh I'll tell the both both of you sometimes I say to people I've written 12 novels and and they'll say do you write under a pen name now that's embarrassing uh they're not all they haven't sold like Tom Clancy but yeah well the L latest one is Phantom orbit uh and any of our listeners out there ought to ought to ought to get it D David I your your talents just never cease to amaze me James do you have anything you wanted to wrap this up well I guess I I got one because this I've read a lot about this I've thought a lot about talk to people about it and I don't have a conclusion should me have pursued Lee after get hisb so um that's a great question um I need to answer because I don't have I've studied it and thought about it and rep it okay come so I got well first first response is what do you think you've thought about it I I probably would not have and yeah I had I had a big certainly exhausted Army but freshen and Le's Army Long Street had set up perimeters I mean they they were ready if they C if they were going to come uh but but you know Lincoln was frustrated if you know they had a chance the would have followed his ass that right now Grant follow or Sherman would have followed his ass you're absolutely right and don't don't don't forget how mad Lee was at Long Street uh you know right after Gettysburg so it's a it's a question we can keep asking David ignacius you are a fabulous guest thank you so much for being with us today great to be with you both great conversation thank you [Music] [Music] hey James now for the outrage of the week uh Senator Tom Cotton charged that all those Republicans who spoke at the Democratic Convention former Congressman lenic governor of Georgia Trump White House AIDs that they're just guilty of trump derangement syndrome and besides every campaign has people switching party allegiances now maybe he can explain why not just switching party allegiances but so many of those who served at the highest level in the Trump Administration and knew him best his former Chief of Staff two defense secretaries two national security directors his head of the National Intelligence Agency former Secretary of State and his own vice president have said he's unfit for office and won't vote for him Senator cotton that would be like in 2012 if Barack Obama seeking reelection if Rah Emanuel as Chief of Staff defense secretaries Robert Gates and Leon Panetta Jim Clapper head of National Intelligence Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Vice President Biden all said Obama was unfit to serve what would you think of that senator this of course is unimaginable except what we have now and this doesn't even get into an intellectual luminary like former appeals court judge Michael ludig a conservative icon who endorsed Harris to crying that Trump would be a catastrophic threat quote catastrophic threat to the rule of law and American democracy sorry Senator cotton there is nothing normal about a to about a total no confidence vote from those who know him best well I think they're pretty good what you said really brought it home that you know how a good part of this party is splitting off him I think there should be more I think some of them uh necessitate speaking out but give credit to the ones that did so for my out R is said there certain things that we regard as human behavior right and I'm not going to say somebody's not human I mean they got a face and they got Limbs and they motor skills and cognition skills but there are people that it just seemed to me that forfeit any ability you might have to see him in somewhat favorable white for anything and these are the people and one of the worst things I've ever seen in my life was the mocking of Governor Walsh's son gush oh who I I mean he just the guy has of disorder not totally unsimilar to what I have or my oldest daughter has so we're very sympathetic to that and our family I'm sure you are too and it started an cter started mocking him and then there's this guy this subhuman is all I can call him by the name of Jay Weber who is a talk show guy in Milwaukee and so I was reading this article in in the ihart radio and of course it kicked him off to a for a day or some [ __ ] and this [ __ ] guy says I I I lost my bearings I'm a former teacher I know never to make fun of teenagers and then of course he did when when President Obama was office he literally was markting 16 year old daughter that I don't think and there's this New Jersey Republican called Mike crispy but I think this guy Weber I I'd like to for him to answer just the question do you have human emotions I mean I know you sit there and run your fat [ __ ] mouth all the time Wisconsin radio and what is it what what is it about these teenagers or young people that you want to continually mock I I don't I just do not get it at all and of course this guy pontificates on every I'm sure he does would listen to him if you paid me too but what a what a subhuman jerk yeah an cter joined that freay too yeah I got mention I mention gave a credit then she said well I didn't realize that that he had a issue of course you did yeah yeah kidding me but that kid was you're so right that kid was so Charming that was such a Mo I mean for that kid to stand up and say that's my dad and then he comes up on the stage and then somebody one of them makes fun that he that the governor walls put his hand out to help Gus when in fact people that have this condition have spatial depth perception issues God these people are just they you know we know that Trump is is not really he he's a subhuman for sure he doesn't have a motions that picture of him grinning in front of that St Marine staff solders grave oh God man I don't know what what is wrong with these people you remember James back in I I guess it was 16 that U there was a New York Times Reporter who had disabilities uh and oh yeah uh Trump just Trump mocked him I mean he imitated his disabilities it was as cruel as you could possibly be and I told my daughter he's more like an animal and she got Furious because she loves animals you know it's so funny uh JD Vance he's trying to be funny of course he's not anything in the cat lady quote it just I've never I've never seen things stick like that oh yeah I mean when I tell you that thing he penetrated and he tried to make light of it and said well I apologize to catch okay going it ghes to show you and I'd like to see the last since the Republican Convention Show me one photo of trump and JD Vance together all right a single one and he said that he and Bobby Kennedy was the strongest ticket ever you know I have to tell you that uh I I I've known the Kennedy family for a long time I knew Bobby a little bit he is really crazy I mean he is just he he is he he ran one of the most I I don't know how to describe it but just uh uh terrible it was not just a bad campaign a lot of people run bad campaigns he's going to be known his campaign is gonna be known for the Revelation that he got a bear a dead bear put it in the trunk of his car and dumped it in in Central Park I don't think that's what you want to be known for I'm taking a seven whal head and put it on top of his car driving around I don't have you can't you can pick you friends you can't pick your rties and the care of the family and the guy is just out of his mind and I and he was started at 20 he ended up at two and he was going to you know Paul gal said at this pace he would have been minus six on Election Day or something but I I actually I mildly feel sorry for his family that they got to answer this but don't worry we all got relatives we got yeah I think there's just a sadness there and it's a sadness not not even so much for him but for you know the grandchildren the cousins and they all it's a Hu it's a huge family gets together and that's going to create some strange I don't think he's going to matter at all politically I really don't uh I think if he was down at 2% half of those people will stay home and uh um you know close election Josh Mar quoted some Quant that said it cost Paris two fifths of 1% I don't know but you could look at it on talking pointso he's I find him to be usually reliable yeah can read anything while he's not trying to raise money from you of course that's about the margin that uh Trump carried Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in 2016 yeah look yeah could could it it could yeah might may not be laughing but um you know we'll see [Music] all right James uh as might be expected uh our listeners really responded uh this week uh they were tuned in last week hard to pick from a number of good ones but let me try we'll start with Tom in Denver Colorado this is Dan here Aly James he said there's seems to be a lot of dysfunction in the Florida Democratic party and reluctance of national Democrats to invest in them as a donor to the uh to the Democratic Senate candidate um as pal it really gives me pause to throw money her way is it worthwhile the short answer is yes and and I would not have said yes in 2022 and the reason is if you watch our show during the convention is Nikki freed who's a former elected Democratic AG culture commission Florida has taken over the party they're winning elections left and right if you look at the latest data both public and private data P was probably within two or Scott Harris probably within four of trump and what Nikki has done is we got rid of those stupid jackass primaries and we started recruiting some good candidates and in it's paid off and we' won a couple big specials won a big special in Jacksonville mayor race we won a big special in a off State legisl race in kind of eastn Orlando Schoolboard races and Schoolboard every they got wiped out in Schoolboard right the santis is done all right he is he is toast he can't go back to the Trump people the moms for Liberty are getting slaughtered big flasho people don't like book burners okay they went all into that I I'm very reluctant to CL declare anyone's political career over but uh Des sent is you may be done dude you're just done I don't know if you got a place to go and uh you know the Democrats gonna have to make by the way Colin Al be like two polls out Colin's like within two of Cruz Cruz is not 50 the Democrats going to have to make a real particularly in the senate i financially flid and Texas are are two you know the three most expensive States they're probably two of them and it it's going to present some real challenges here for Democrats and you know of course the danger is you go all in and you spend a bunch of money and you people say well you said I told you you couldn't do it anyway you'd fall short that's a b and Texas are going to present some real interesting thing for Democratic donors and in groups and everything else well James let me you know you're you're you're much better equipped to give Tom advice than I am but I think what I would say is that if I were the Harris walls campaign you know I may put a little bit into Texas and FL now but hold off uh and see if it looks better and see how other things look you know like mid October but I would certainly invest in those Senate campaigns pal and I think I mean I saw Ted Cruz on Fox the other night and was nastier than usual um trying to attack Colin Alat saying she's just like he rather is just like uh kamla Harris weak and all that former professional football player and civil rights lawyer by by the way and talking about character of course Ted when Ted Cruz talks about character James it may be worth remembering that Donald Trump uh called his wife ugly and said that his father probably was involved in the assassination of JFK and then Ted when it was necessary just came sucking back uh to Curry favor with him so Ted don't talk about character but James I think an investment in all R and pal at this stage is certainly worthwhile well uh you got it's more than investment [ __ ] load of money but in Florida you got some help because you have the choice referendum right and let me tell you these people can raise money and you also have the weed referendum and some somebody stands to make a lot of money selling weed in Florida and typically these people help turn out quote traditional democratic constituencies unquote so so that there's going to be a lot of money being spent not directly by the campaigns of the Committees that should have a positive pull on Democrats in Florida and that's part of the reason I feel little more Bush about yeah yeah well and I um I certainly think Colin alad is I think he's a better candidate than b aor and and aor a couple points I I I think he's a little more complete and you know he comes where you know or is very known in El Paso which is not Texas stand is not one of the bigger barriers and Collinsville known in the Dallas Ford worth media Market which is probably L them shorts and maybe wo too as a football a football player Yeah Yeah Tim in Newberg Indiana ask what strategy would you advise kamla to follow in the debates particularly her opening remarks but also throughout look I feel good about KLA Harris in debates because I think I think uh Trump will will become unhinged again just the sight of her will drive him crazy I think she has to remain cool don't don't let him bait her her opening remarks has to mainly be about the future uh and contrasting the future with going back to the past uh and being be upbeat and and have her own game plan and when he interrupts or when he tries to throw out all kinds of wild charges some personal and some many untrue respond when necessary but don't feel that that's your mission your mission is to tell people who you are and why you're about the future yeah I you know been wrestling with certainly the Future Past dichotomy works you can't use change versus more the same because it just doesn't work being a b vice president in in the bid Administration I'm beginning to think that the axis is kind of fresh stale all right you know let's let's we got something fresh something new something different here if you want to go back to what you had something that's stale but but I I I don't yeah future past but you know I'm I'm about 20 he's about 2018 about 2028 she's obvious going to have to have a good answer I think she will On the Border she's going to need to have a good compelling forward looking answer on cost of living I think they're they're they're really some good things in that area I mean Po's basically CL declared inflation is kind of over now you know what people will say well yeah you know dozen eggs was $2 it went to four and ni three but it in the FED cut is going to help and you know you may the FED certainly has some confidence in the direction economy uh because they're getting ready to cut rates so she she's got some some really good stuff here and I think she's going to be well prepared I think he he knows that he needs this I don't think he's going to back out he won't you know he he'll [ __ ] about ABC and he'll piss and moan but he will show up yeah he's trying to the refs ahead of time which he always does and you know can be pretty successful at it it's not it's he doesn't have he's got some success because oh we just want to be objective we just you know and and believe you me ABC is gonna go out of his way to be objective and fair well I don't mind that but uh you know don't play on his Turf I I suspect they won't James uh Frank and Avon Indiana we have two straight Indiana questions man we're big in hoer land says at the recent Democratic Convention we were privy to the Deep Well of the party for futures boy we sure were who were there who he wants to know James are the upand coming strategist who are the James carvill of the 20s and 30s you know that thank you for the uh for the flattery U you know I we had the the ging and all those young posters that he had uh I think guy I particularly like is is Eric hire uh he was uh Brasher's campaign manager he's done a bunch of races his wife is really involved in politics and they you know he's he's an actual campaign manager of which I've always been a little partial to but I would certainly put Eric at the top of the kind of R Hope look our friend Quinton folks I was going to say Quint I saw something Quinton and Harris he's got Harris and doing something interesting they going in these red counties in Georgia and Quinton says we doing that because we got to lose them by less as you know we at Bridge did that in 2020 in Pennsylvania Michigan Wisconsin we doing it again the idea is to work in places that you're going to lose but instead of losing them 8515 lose them 7525 and that's solid strategy so I would definitely put Quinton in the top rank of of incomers yeah absolutely I mean he is he was I guess the number I don't know three person maybe in the Biden campaign he certainly has made the transition she's certainly listening to him that Georgia tour uh that Georgia bus tour with with Tim Walls um clearly was a Quinton folks uh idea and I think it's a it's a it's a good one uh all right we're going to get out of Indiana and go to the state of Washington Jake and Everett Washington asked the amount of coverage and commentary dedicated to Comm sari and the Divine line has been significant do you think this is helpful Focus area for the campaign surrogate it you know it may be fine for some people but I mean obviously the black uh black black women are in critical Force to come out in huge numbers uh my guess is most of those Black Women Voters didn't belong to a sority at a prestigious University I I think that's kind of part of who she is I I think I'm not saying I know I'm not I'm not yeah I understand I I it in the black female sorties they tend to be very tight all right and uh you're right it's not this not a thing that going to be that expansive but to to show black women are very much more into Sisterhood and I think I don't get racial here I don't mean to that but they're more into Sisterhood than maybe white males are into Brotherhood it's it's just some of the foundational relationships they have is is is really something to see but I I I I agree but I I just think that that's really kind of part of her DNA that and you know sometimes in politics politicians do something they just want to do maybe this is that case I don't think it does any harm you know the question was should it be a big focus and I think not I agree with you on the uh on The Sisterhood um you know this is a similar question but it's got a different ending for you to pick up on James and it's Joe and dobs Fair New York who says uh aren't Democrats better off not wasting resources in Florida and Texas but then the final part is instead going all in to get John tester reelected to keep contr Ro of the Senate so I appreciate the question we discussed this at L it there's so much money that you can spend in Montana right okay my my guess is and I totally I love s Tesa I love his campaign I love Shelby donik I love everything about it but if s aesta gets beat it's not going to be because of a lack of money right I you know like said I'm going tell somebody where a minute but Florida Texas is a difficult decision that you know Democrats at Senate level and the national level are going to have to cope with because I don't think you're going to change you you I think you're in spitting distance in both States but the risk of going in and amount of money you spend it would you know take away from North Carolina or Georgia or Arizona maybe you know it's it's a tough question I'll just leave it at that it's a tough question I agree but my inclination and by the way uh there's not a tradeoff here what national Democrats do in Florida Texas doesn't affect how much support John tester gets in Montana Shane said he's gonna get everything he needs out there right I think it's a tough question but I think I don't find the answer that tough if it's if you have X amount of resource on whatever it is uh October the 10th uh and uh the choices between Florida or Texas versus say North Carolina and Arizona I'd go the latter I I this is something I've always saw in politics and some people say it's irresponsible you're going to have resources [ __ ] spend them the money's coming in like water oh Absol all right it just is it's just like so just plow ahead and you know the big donors are back the little donors are back the new donors are back and I've never been you would every time I go to one of these campaign schools that send you to they would tell you how to budget backwards from election day and I I'll never forget 1991 right after Labor Day at Paris wford I said [ __ ] it spend money like it's water we just got a bet on the come here and and there's so many different ways to have money the campaign has has what they ra $240 million they got 540 million 540 million yeah [ __ ] and and all of the ancillary group Senate majority back the the house the dle C the the us at Bridge and for Freedom or something that they people raising money like it's water just go out and spend the [ __ ] yeah just just plow plow plow plow well the other group that has money which comes to the question that Dave in Lake boy Lake lotana Missouri uh we ought to check it out because Dave is a Congressional candidate there and he says what are the chances the numerous State abortion questions on the ballot across the country could drive turnout and affect the outcome in Congressional and presidential races in States like mine Missouri uh it's a it's a perfect storm uh Brewing ask boy it is going to affect that's what abortion does it brings out voters and it brings out if you ask Jim gersen will tell you if you ask voters what is one issue which if the other person if one person has the wrong answer uh you would not vote for that person and and abortion Far and Away uh do dominates that among people who are potential swing voters brings out voters it's on I think 10 State ballots James make it could make make a huge difference in Arizona could make a big difference even in a place like New York in 2022 New York New New Yorkers kind of assume well yeah Ro was repealed but we have a you know very protective law here in uh in in our state so really doesn't affect us and I think Democrats are trying to drive home the fact you know we want to enshrine this we want to make sure the feds can never come uh and overcome this I think it's going to help a little bit with turn ad in a place like Missouri um you know which I mean Dave if you are running uh in Missouri or if or you know anybody else I don't know what your district is like but I think I really think abortion that referendum could add two or three points in various places so this is the most potent issue of saying some people say 911 didn't really help the Republicans it did till it didn't but I've never seen an issue like this we literally have not lost a race since stops I mean just in every time that just post to post Ved for it of course we talked about how Trump is trying to have it both ways how to prif people and a pack of Hypocrites and you got them on the run and I want I'm G get some research done on how many current Republican house members have endorsed the human life Amendment how many what was the Republican platforms how many years did they have anti-abortion plank in the platform because the big thing is they're trying somehow or another to figure out how to navigate this terrain so you kind of hear them say look it's we think it's up to the states I I did with a Dan kensaw did Bill Mo he said look the only two bills that we ever introduced and they were too kind of innocuous things and so their message is look it's not a big deal uh we let and that is not not true we in people in New York California the theory was in 2022 that they didn't feel threatened by this because they thought the legislature would protect them but we've now come to realize that there's a lot for them to feel threatened about and we should remind them of why they should be threatened yeah I think that's right James the final question I apologize to everyone whose questions we didn't get to send them in we'll try again next week John in Sonoma California says this is not a normal election there's only one issue John says before us in November and that's the survival of democracy and the rule of law isn't it best for kamla uh and walls to be as vague as possible on policy and focus on that well first of all you're right okay that that's what's at stake in this election there's no doubt about that but what's the most effective way to go forward with the is and that's Pro probably that to talk about the rule of law and democracy that by winning the election you save the rule of law and you save democracy I'm not sure talking about that in election is the best way to win the election although it happens to be true there are any other things which are demonstratively true that may be of more benefit uh in electoral campaign but what you say I I I I don't doubt it and where I see it manifest itself is should and ask yourself this question should the Press should should people like treat this well yeah one candidate says something other candidate says something else this is where it is uh then you have a little fact check thing and it says well this is actually wrong or do you treat this like what I think it is is a battle to save the country the you know we were not objective in World War II I'm sorry it was not objective journalism there was a bad side and a better side and that was pretty clear and you know going forward we're going to have to figure out and people who cover us are going to have to figure out what what's the role of the sort of impartial orbiters in our society and that's one that we need to bring up and think about and talk about yeah and I would advise people like the aforementioned Tom Cotton to at least read the statements of Michael ludik Michael ludig is a conservative icon pel Court Judge almost named to the Supreme Court there is no conservative jurist who they admired more uh other than perhaps Kia uh and he he is endorsing Harris he said I may disagree with most of her positions but this is about uh preserving democracy and the rule of law uh so it is a challenge please keep those letters coming in because uh we so appreciate them and as I said any we don't get to this week we will certainly get to try to get to next week hey thanks for listening to politics War worm with James Carville and I'm Al Hunt remember get your tickets for when James and I take politics War Room live to the 92nd Street Y in New York City on September 19th and to the Variety Playhouse in Atlanta Georgia on October 12th you can get tickets at pon.com tour and we can't wait to see you there as always send your questions for us by email to politics warro gmail.com or tweet them for next week's show at politicon following this episode we'd appreciate it if you check out the link to our sponsor Miracle made and our episode show notes we really thank you for supporting them because when you do it helps make this podcast happen now to keep up with us subscribe to politics World room on Apple podcast Spotify or wherever you listen and check out our substack at politics warroom.com James and I are always adding new content so go take a look you also can find other shows you might enjoy on the plon YouTube channel or when you search plon on your favorite podcast sites now remember please rate the show with a five-star review and we will be back next week with another 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