BREAKING: Kamala Harris SURGES In BRAND NEW Texas Poll... (Is Texas Up For Grabs?)

all right man so it looks like we got some breaking news here we got a brand new poll that puts kamla Harris at a new low in the state of Texas uh she's actually now beneath uh down three in the poll in a new Poll for the first time this is also the first head-to-head poll to have her uh down three so we have this Emerson College poll coming out September 3rd through uh the 5th are the dates that it took place in it's also a likely voter sample 845 voter uh likely voter sample the pollster is Emerson College the sponsor is the hill it is the freshest newest uh poll that we have you can see here it says haris 48 Trump 51 Trump plus three so uh this is pretty interesting you can see there's a surge going on here in terms of numbers especially in recent times but let's take a look at these polls more closer I think there's some really interesting stuff uh to be garnered from these numbers so if we check out this poll check this out so we can see is if we look at the poll here we can see that in Texas this poll says Texas Kay Harris 46% Donald Trump 50% and then other SL undecided is 4% so she's down 4% in this poll but the reason why she's actually down three is because when we actually take into account uh so-called leaners people who are undecided uh in their vote but they're leaning towards a candidate she's actually down by less than 3% so uh what we can take a look at here is uh we can take a look and uh see here what the numbers are so um in the Excel spreadsheet says if the presidential election were held today would you vote for Comm Harris or Donald Trump's selected Choice Comm Harris at 46.1 Donald Trump at 50 so it's 3.9 points someone else is 1.1 and then you have undecided is 2.7 so 2.7% of people are undecided what we know is that KLA Harris is actually still getting known to voters this is a big deal I think in that I definitely I thought that she was actually a much higher known quantity but it looks like she's more of a variable rather than an actual known value and so because of that a lot of Voters are still getting to know her and in a lot of ways the election hasn't even started yet I think the debate will probably be the first time it actually starts a lot of people in real life I think don't give a crap about what's going on right now they're not paying attention I think Trump 2016 was such a spectacle it kind of brought a lot of attention and then 2020 was The Panini and so that was like really crazy attention as well now nobody really cares um people are watching sports or listening to Charlie XCX or whatever they're doing but so let's check this out so this is with undecided but when we take into account leaners what we can see is she leads by a 2: one margin with leaners so uh she has 1.8% of the leaners and Donald Trump gets 0.9 so the undecided voters she's winning two to one with the undecided voters so this potentially could be a good thing in terms of uh it could be a good thing or a bad thing the good thing being that hey she's actually appealing to people who haven't made a decision yet meaning there's a lot of room for growth for her also if she's doing well with this sample of undecided voters there's a possibility that there's some group of Voters out there who are undecided who might be able to flip in favor of KLA Harris in the future that's another possibility right so those are potential bennies for Kay Harris with her you know doing well with these uh you know undecided voters the other thing would be though it could be a downside in terms of you know maybe these undecided voters because they're not decided they're less likely to come out to vote potentially could be maybe a downside but she's winning 2 to one and so when we take a look at the combined presidential vote here we see that Kay Harris gets 48% of the vote Donald Trump gets 50.9% of the vote so that is a 2.9 margin it's our first one that we have here that's actually beneath three points so we have the first poll uh so far that has her beneath three points she's lower down than three points with leaners now the only problem is here uh once you obviously in this situation there's no undecided left in according to this poll number there's 1.1 who are someone else specify there's and when we look at this is will you definitely vote for your candidate or is there at least a chance you can change your mind and vote for someone else we have the definite number is 90.3 the chance that it could change my mind is seven so that totals up to 97.3 and there's it looks like 2.7 missing from that number so uh you know that 7% maybe you could convince those people to vote in favor of you would be the chance again k Harris so shockingly to me a very unknown quantity so this could be a big deal but she's already under three and the poll for Emerson last time had Trump plus one which is really bad uh what ended up happening in the state of uh Texas so back in 2016 you can see Trump ends up winning by about nine points but I'd say more so de facto 10 or 11 because Gary Johnson got 3.2% which is a lot um and then in 2020 it is in terms of a proportion it almost gets half right because it goes from like nine I say deao win of like 10 to 11 because this is a head-to-head that was not a head-to-head and a head-to-head I think Donald Trump does better than uh he did in 2016 so here in a head-to-head it's only about five and a half and so a huge huge slicing right and so is kamay Harris going to win Texas the truth is probably not highly unlikely I think however there's a clear sort of monotonically decreasing sequence in terms of trump leads in terms of trump Victory margins it keeps is getting halfed so if she can get within 2 to 3% if she can get below 3% that would be really really good for multiple reasons one it's a long-term project that seems to consistently be moving forward there is evidence that population Trends are continuing to grow for Texas which is really really good I think 70% of the population lies in these sort of uh Metro areas or whatever like Austin and Dallas Fort Worth area Etc so it's a long-term project in terms of you can actually flip it blue in future elections presidential elections the the other thing is down ballot races so um Ted Cruz is polling pretty poorly I think he's up four in this recent poll here with Emerson um but 177% or 7% I think were undecided or something like that in the poll uh so what we know is Ted Cruz is polling much much weaker than Donald Trump is he's barely able to crack 50 in almost any of the polls so maybe you lose Texas by 2 to 3% but all red wins a seat against Ted Cruz and you can hold the Senate Comm comes in without winning Texas but she holds the Senate and you have the house you know flip with the generic ballot polling so you know you can get through even if you wanted to go through the you know a budget reconciliation if you're down to just ignore what the parliamentarian says you could do like one reconciliation but with the fudge ton of stuff in it uh and you'd be able to get a bunch through even if you don't want to break the filibuster you can still do a lot just even with that right um so this is really huge and so we can see that these counties flipped Hayes County and Williamson flipped we also saw some pretty large margin changes in counties like Denton County so Denton County minus 20 for Hillary Clinton then it only ends up being minus 8 so it's like 12 points of ground gained um Colin County another one too 56.2 to 39.2 so about like a 17o margin and then here it's only four so uh you know Dallas County going Bluer as well we can see in Dallas County it goes from 61.1 to about 65.1 Houston is lagging Harris County they're kind of weak I don't know why they're lagging so bad the Harris County numbers are kind of weak so that's kind of unfortunate uh he got 56 and Harris last time was 54.2 so barely any gains the Houston area appears to be kind of weak the Austin area Travis County going from 66.3% all the way up to 71.7% huge shift because there's a lot of votes in there so proportionately 5% of that many votes is a lot Travis uh Williamson and Hayes both flipped blue so these are the adjacent areas to Austin right so this was about nine points it barely flips um Hayes County also flipping another County that flips actually is tarant County so tarant County a Dallas adjacent area this County you know Trump uh wins by about nine points and what we can see is in teren Biden is actually up by 0.2 points so he wins so what I would say is the obvious strategy in terms of emerging Victorious if you're trying to win Texas obviously you're going to go to Dallas and you know uh you know tra and those areas with a ton of Voters try to turn them out as much as you can make them a larger proportion of the voting population however in terms of the sneak attacks I would recommend sneak attack strategies too so I would recommend going into Colin trying to make that even further blue because it shifted so much Denton as well like these these Dallas adjacent areas that are still red but they're turning blue I would I would attack those areas so go and do rallies in Denton and in Colin do voter registration drives in Denton I think there's like a large College population there there you know go over there um continue to go for Williamson and Hayes and uh you know some of these other areas that are around here as well I think I'm missing one another one also there's probably a fourth one I think that I'm missing um I can't remember which the fourth county was it I thought it was like a really good attack spot but um those are kind of your sort of sneak attacks you can do where instead of just going after the blue areas which you have to go for the blue areas go for those red areas as well and so ultimately what is probably going to end up happening with this is with these numbers with kis being down less than three points she's already only down 2.1 or 2.9 when you take into account the leaners also I wanted to mention this as well um when you actually look at like the uh party affiliation of what their numbers are so um in terms of the party affiliation so if we take a look here at the party affiliation because they have like the party affiliation numbers um you can see party affiliation have Democrat 32. 5 Republican 40.7 so it's about Plus 8 Republican the previous 2020 Emerson poll that was bad that was only plus one for Trump they had I think a plus two Democrat sample this is plus eight this is plus eight which or I don't know if it was plus two de I can't remember what the exact margin was I forgot that might have been Florida actually uh but or it might have been plus five Republican I think actually so what might end up happening hopefully is they're adjusting for I think those those sample size sizes that were like too much in favor of Democrats uh and not enough in favor of the Republicans My Hope Is hopefully they actually overestimate the Republican in the sample size and then it ends up being a surprise booster shot uh for you know kamla Harris hopefully is what's going to happen hopefully they over adjust we know Texas is still growing in terms of Blues moving into Texas so there should be a really good situation where hopefully there ends up being a shock boost and also it indicates to me this poll is much higher likelihood to actually being Cor correct because they're adjusting for the sample sizes from 2020 so higher chance of this poll being correct we can hope and pray for an overestimation of the Republicans and an underestimation of the Democrats they're still undecided voters she's still undecided and if it gets within two to three points you're now in a scenario where it's in Striking Distance I'd say for 2032 I'd say you want to retain S Sub and let SN be the sequence where it's like you know uh you know the election results since 2016 you know s 2016 s2020 s202 24 keep it monotonically decreasing get it to 2 to three this time around if you could get beneath three that would be really sick if you get Ben two it's I mean it's it's Armageddon right um and then you hope that in 2028 I think you want to get uh less than 1.5 between 0.5 and 1.5 and then hopefully by 2032 you can actually flip the state now this would require actual movement along the lines of Californians and other blue people still moving over I think the Mexican theorem was a failure the Mexican theorem was that hey Mexicans are going to move into Texas going to turn it blue colossal failure very unreliable in the state of Texas if not God awful so Biden gets 59 uh which is his national average the concern was Clinton got minus five compared to her average she got average Hispanic vote of 66 nationally she's down five Biden matched his number so I hope there's not a sexist vote that would be really unfortunate but Trump randomly surges six points with Hispanic voters so 5940 which is trash that's garbage but if you're comma I would focus on how do you pull Hispanic voters away from Trump because he way overperformed his poll numbers a lot of that is probably the Sixpoint surge that they didn't see happening with Hispanic voters how do you pull them away you don't need to get them to vote for you because actually went down by two for Biden but it went up by six for Trump how do you get those Hispanic voters not to vote for Trump and then um you focus on pulling out the blue voters cuz I mean that's just disgraceful 40% of his spanic voters voting for Trump is is disgusting it's unbelievable horrible horrible unfathomable uh like if they voted like black voters there was like 928 or if it's even like Asians were like 7225 or whatever it would be so much better so 7525 whatever um so the Mexican theorem has failed but what it looks like is the migration from Blue areas is what's doing this because we're able to see those areas near Austin are flipping right they're flipping the areas of Travis County and they're growing and those areas are flipping the Austin adjacent areas San Antonio and Houston areas are lagging Dallas making big increases the Dallas County going up 61.1 to 65 is pretty solid um the Houston area only went up less than two points which is super lame so that's what it looks like is going on in Texas and that's what I think is going to end up happening