My 2024 Presidential Prediction

understand that the keys to the White House are an alternative to the pundits which have no scientific Merit the polls which are snapshots not predictors they're the only system that on a broad basis gauges how American presidential elections really work as votes up or down on the strength and performance of the party holding the White House in other words the big good news it's that governance not campaigning that counts and of course the keys are totally nonpartisan I predicted Reagan I predicted Trump I've also predicted Obama and Clinton so these are predictions not endorsements and here's how it works and here's how we can track it these are true false questions phrased in such a way so an answer of true favors the reelection of the White House Party whether or not the sitting president is running and an answer of false favors earthquake the White House Party gets bounced and if six or more of the keys are false the White House Party is a predicted loser otherwise they're a predicted winner let's get into it Allan lickman and the 13 keys to the White House His official prediction so the first key is the Mandate key it's based on midterm elections and to have this key true the party holding the White House have to have more US House Seats after the most recent midterm than after the previous midterm and the rationale behind this key is that midterm elections are kind of a midterm evaluation of how well the White House Party is governed and the White House Party suffered losses in the midterm elections of 2022 in the US House they did better than expected but they still lost seats and held fewer seats that's the Democrats than they held after the previous midterm of 2018 where they did really well so key number one is false key number two is really significant because I was very critical of what the Democrats were doing when Biden was still in the race openly trashing their incumbent president we've never seen that before in US political history and I also thought Not only would they push Biden out of the race but they would do the ultimate foolish maneuver of having a big brawl to replace Biden well it turns out the Democrats finally grew a spine and a brain United almost unanimously behind kamla Harris and kept in line the contest key that key is blue the next key is incumbent seeking reelection that's a pretty clear key when Biden stepped out of the race the sitting president was no longer running there was an advantage to having a sitting president run and obviously that key is red the one key that turned against the Democrats as a result of bouncing Biden third party this one was shaky for a while right the third party key it was looking shaky you know RFK Jr for a while looked like he would well exceed the 10% polling threshold it's the only time I've got to turn to the polls because I don't know what he's going to get when actual votes are cast although I do know third party or independent candidates according to the lickman wasted vote syndrome actually vote when people vote they get about half their highest poll level that's why to turn this key you got to be polling it at 10% or more the RFK Jr campaign is gone he suspended his campaign which could in part be due to the turn to to uh kamla Harris since the electorate doesn't any longer have to decide between two old white guys but none of the other candidates come anywhere close to the threshold for turning this key so it's blue two for two so far the next one is the strong short-term economy keys and now you get push back on economy Keys a lot dad because people say that people are perceiving the economy the economy to be bad do you want to straighten them out here Dad yes you want to develop your own prediction system based on people's perceptions of the economy which are constantly changing depending upon when you take the poll or how you word the poll that's not how this key is defined if you're going to use my system you've got to stick to how each key is defined within the system and how they've been answered since 1860 retrospectively and prospectively since 1982 this key is very sharply defined and very specific it says there is no recession in the election year it doesn't say people have a good impression of the economy there is no recession and there is not going to be a recession because in two months that's not enough time for a recession to take hold in a discernable way so that key is blue long term economy key again this is a very specifically defined key it doesn't depend on fluctuating perceptions or how questions are asked it's very statistical it asks to be true the realterm per capita GDP growth during the incumbent party's current term must be at least equal to the average of the previous two terms and the truth is this may surprise a lot of people real per capita growth under Biden is more than double the average of the previous two terms so that key is BL four true two false so far with key7 coming up the major policy change key there has been extraordinary policy changes from Trump to Biden the executive orders repealing Trump's policies on the environment and immigration rejoining the Paris Accords the infrastructure Bill the chips Bill the stimulus Bill the inflation control and uh climate change Bill even a small bill on gun control all of these policies fundamentally shifting from Donald Trump not surprisingly so that key is blue and remember the key simply says major policy change it doesn't refer to whether or not poll show the policies are popular or not just that the White House party has a record of policy change to run on the next key may be one of your most controversial keys this prediction period the social unrest key it shouldn't be because again you got to stick to how the key is defined it's defined as sustained and massive social unrest sufficient to call into question the stability of society such as we had in the 60s and 70s when the cities were inflamed when millions of people were in the streets when there were deaths and indust uh property damage and in injuries same thing with the massive black lives matter movement in 2020 nothing close to that this year we had the sporadic protest of some college campuses a tiny percentage of the thousands of college campuses nothing like the many hundreds of college campuses that exploded in the 60s and then I was looking to see the horrors of the 1968 Democratic invention in Chicago when you had pitch battles between protesters and police and the whole convention descended into chaos nothing like that so really uh what's gone on this year and I've been watching it very carefully doesn't come close to satisfying the definition of the key again there may be some influence of kamla Harris here in that Joe Biden kind of the target of the protest is no longer front and center for the Democrats so that key is blue and a lot of the criticism of the keys that I that you hear a lot of the time and you'll hear a lot of people say this is oh they're completely subjective he's just making these picks off the top of his head Whimsical they use social unrest as um one of those quote unquote subjective keys but there is his concrete historical precedent for calling this key he's not just calling this key off the top of his head and there's a very tight and specific definition for this key and the r of the key you know when I first came out with the keys the professional forast has blasted me for the sin of subjectivity I kept explaining no they're not subjective they're judgmental historians make judgments all the time but they're tightly defined and I have a record of how I answered them well it took about 15 to 20 years and the professional forecasts suddenly realized that their attempt to be objective uh and abolished judgment in their models didn't work it led to errors and the most successful model were like the keys that combine judgmental indicators like social unrest with quantitative indicators like real economic growth and all of a sudden the keys were the hottest thing in forecasting I twice keynoted the international forecasting Summit I published in all the forecasting journals I presented at the American Political Science Association all right let's let's get moving on to key9 the Scandal key your favorite key favorite key of course yeah again this key is very specifically defined it's got to be corruption that directly implicates the president not the president's son or the president's brother like Billy Carter the reprobate brother of Jimmy Carter corruption that directly implicates the president with at least some bipartisan recognition of wrongdoing now for four years the Republicans have tried to pin a scandal on Biden and they've come up empty I haven't heard anything about it because they don't have anything again it doesn't matter what's going on with Hunter nothing has hit Joe Biden himself that key is blue let's skip the two foreign policy keys for now and let's go to the charismatic incumbent key yeah and again this is you know one of the keys that critics who haven't really grasp the system criticized me this isn't just I a Beholder there are very specific criteria here it has to be a once in a generation broadly inspirational candidate who appeals Beyond traditional party lines the iconic examples are Franklin Roosevelt who built the Roosevelt Coalition at a time when Republicans had controlled everything and Ronald Reagan who was so critical in establishing a conservative base in America whatever you may think of Harris she's not an FDR or Ronald Reagan you know she isn't the once in a generation inspirational candidate she's had her challenges didn't do well in the 2020 nomination contest was kind of invisible as a vice president has done better as a candidate but is not an historically established candidate there only been six of them since the turn of the 20th century Teddy Roosevelt Franklin Roosevelt Dwight Eisenhower because he was a national hero for running dday John F Kennedy Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama that's it so that one is red it's false right and I think a lot of people with this key are confusing excitement with generational Charisma right there was a huge amount of excitement kamla surged in the Pro polls but it doesn't necessarily mean she's a once- in a generation candidate exactly and that's why it's so important to understand the exact definition of the keys and just to be clear this is not does mean that the that the person running is the incumbent they just come from the incumbent party correct correct right that's correct key number 13 uh uncharismatic Challenger yeah I get a lot of flack for this one because oh clearly Trump is charismatic well people may think that some people think he's you know a God but that's not the definition of the key you have to be the once in a generation broadly inspirational candidate cutting across partisan lines clearly while Trump is a great showman he appeals only to a narrow base and therefore whatever you may think of him he doesn't fit the criteria of the keys his approval rating as president on average after four years was 41% his base one of the lowest approval ratings historically of any president he lost the popular vote in two elections by a combined 10 million votes so whatever you may think of trump he doesn't fit the criteria of the keys and that one is blue that means dad that Harris according to you according to the 13 keys to the White House is headed for a win in 2024 that's correct no matter what happens with the very hard to call foreign policy Keys even if they both flipped red both were negative that's only five negative Keys it would take six negative keys to predict her defeat and I don't see any of these other Keys having any chance to flip you know that's the beauty one of the beauties of the keys is it's the big picture it's major things you don't suddenly change economic growth or changes of policy or suddenly find a scandal doesn't happen right and this is how you called it on the New York Times video so technically you called it as almost an 832 right eight TRS three falses two undecided but it doesn't matter if it's if it's 103 832 it's a Harris win right right that's why the New York Times didn't want me to call it because the truth is we have two Wars raging Wars are unpredictable but I'm going to provide our viewers a more in-depth analysis what you're kidding how about that wow what a treat he's gonna give us a treat you're GNA give us a little bit of Insider information on your thought process on key10 the no foreign slm military failure key and key 11 major foreign slm military success yeah at the moment I've split these keys I have colored ky10 red because I consider the war in Gaza a failure now again these are the shakiest keys because things could change we could get a ceasefire and a hostage release okay it's a humanitarian disaster with no end in sight seems very unlike like you know I guess you could say likely red cuz you know there could be a ceasefire and a hostage release as unlikely as that is now we don't have boots on the ground we're not directly responsible but we have enormously invested in what goes on in the Middle East you know I'm inclined to split the keys and give Biden a success in Ukraine here's why it was Biden and Biden alone not macron or Trudeau or Angela M or anyone else who brought together the Coalition of the West that stopped Putin from very quickly conquering Ukraine and moving on to threatening our NATO allies and possibly pushing us into another world war and it's Biden who has continued to maintain American support in the face of a lot of Republican opposition of Ukraine which has enabled them to resist uh Putin's attempt to conquer Ukraine for two and a half years plus and has even led to a Ukrainian incursion into Russia and there's been a big surge if you believe the polls of a recent American popular support for Ukraine I think what Biden did in Ukraine is going to go down in history as you know one of the most important diplomatic and Military Maneuvers on the part of any modern president now of course the fortunes of War are uncertain things could change but right now I think it's fair to split the keys we'll we'll give an official an official 832 prediction and a soft 94 prediction does that seem fair that seems fair and an the worst case prediction of an 85 all right there you have it um and again it doesn't matter if it's 832 uh 85 94 it's a Harris win that's correct [Music] [Music]